Nolan Gorman

3B St. Louis Cardinals
Age 27 L/R 6'0" / 225 lbs MLB HR -14%BB -5% Svc 4.320 · Ctrl thru 2028
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-2FA 2029
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AAASTL98.205/.278/.4897060—.176/.227/.385
202424MLBSTL402.203/.272/.400196910.3
202525MLBSTL402.205/.299/.370141900.0
202626AAASTL201.182/.328/.43013150—.137/.249/.303
202626MLBSTL302.184/.274/.3089066-0.2
2027PROJ27MLBSTL393.191/.280/.35215281-0.1
2028PROJ28MLBSTL385.190/.278/.34714180-0.2
2029PROJ29MLBSTL370.187/.275/.34013177-0.4
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1  ·  Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2028Service4.320First FA2029
2027Arb-2$0.4M2028Arb-3$0.6M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Barrel%76
Bat Spd56
Avg EV50
xwOBA39
Speed10
Form.191/.280/.336 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .193/.280/.362
CompsChandler Redmond (age 27) · Ryan Schimpf (age 27) · Jakson Reetz (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 7781vR 82
AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .280 / .352
PA393
HR15
K%34
BB%11
BABIP257
ISO164
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: -0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: -1.9 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-2FLDPOS: +1.4 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +8.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$0M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT35
xAVG
100.199
POWER60
Barrel%
7612.1
Avg EV
5089.1
Bat Spd
5672.0
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED40
Sprint
1025.0
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%33%▲31% over 61 PA (60d) · proj 34%
BB%11%·11% over 61 PA (60d) · proj 11%
ISO.145▼.074 over 54 AB (60d) · proj .169
HR/BB6.3%▼2.9% over 35 BBE (60d) · proj 7.4%
BABIP.254·.206 over 34 BIP (60d) · proj .256
SLASH.191/.280/.336▼proj .193/.280/.362
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 887 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
206
681
—
wRC+
87
85
—
wOBA
296
294
—
ISO
188
174
◀L
BABIP
272
285
▶R
K%
33.0%
35.4%
◀L
BB%
8.7%
9.8%
▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-2
MLB Debut   2022
Service   4.320 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2029
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-2$0.4M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M
2028Arb-3$0.6M———
Totals $0.4M $-0.3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201818 APeoria Chiefs — 10794 19306 10391 02 202286426711 223255 369 309 40 — — — — — —
201818 ROKJohnson City Cardinals — 167143 5010111 24370 13 3504436641.107 315411 2214 476 116 — — — — — —
201919 A+Palm Beach Cardinals — 230215 551635 13732 01 256304428732 172365 326 323 47 — — — — — —
201919 APeoria Chiefs — 282241 5814310 32797 20 241346448795 207312 2811 352 61 — — — — — —
202121 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 328303 8314114 20632 31 274323465788 191301 196 345 79 — — — — — —
202121 AASpringfield Cardinals — 195177 516011 18520 40 288354508862 220351 279 379 89 — — — — — —
202121 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 2316 6101 720 20 3755656251.190 250385 930 516 235 — — — — — —
202222 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 313283 6413014 281032 10 226300420721 194301 339 320 107 +3 +0 -8 +2 +7 0.4
202222 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 188171 475016 14691 30 275333585918 310352 377 392 70 — — — — — —
202323 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 464406 9617027 531483 72 236329478807 241296 3211 354 131 +17 +1 -1 +2 +10 2.9
202424 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 402365 7415019 341511 61 203273400673 197279 388 297 91 -4 +1 -4 +2 +9 0.3
202424 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 9888 18407 9230 00 205278489767 284186 239 330 60 — — — — — —
202525 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 402351 7214114 471360 11 205299370669 165283 3412 300 90 -5 -0 -5 +1 +9 0.0
202626 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 302266 49609 33980 01 184274308583 124247 3211 266 66 -12 -0 +2 +2 +7 -0.2
202626 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 201165 302013 35731 10 182328430759 248215 3617 340 50 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 18831671 35565183 1956366 155 212297402699 189282 3410 311 96 -8 +1 -15 +8 +41 2.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201818 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 10797 14204 7511 02 144210289498 144218 487 228 40 — — — — — —
201818 ROK MLEJohnson City Cardinals — 167151 38718 16530 13 252323470794 219328 3210 340 116 — — — — — —
201919 A+ MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 230218 401224 101022 01 183226312538 128325 444 237 47 — — — — — —
201919 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 282254 471037 191047 20 185261331591 146266 377 259 61 — — — — — —
202121 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 328310 7512111 13792 31 242277394670 152280 244 285 79 — — — — — —
202121 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 195182 45509 13650 40 247297423721 176324 337 300 89 — — — — — —
202222 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 313283 6412015 281032 10 226300428728 201301 339 327 107 +3 +0 -8 +2 +7 0.4
202222 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 188175 354010 10851 30 200247394642 194291 455 272 70 — — — — — —
202323 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 464407 9716029 521483 72 238329491820 253296 3211 362 131 +17 +1 -1 +2 +10 2.9
202424 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 402366 7414020 331511 61 202270404674 202279 388 302 91 -4 +1 -4 +2 +9 0.3
202424 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 9891 16405 6290 00 176227385611 209181 306 257 60 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 402353 7213115 451360 11 204294374668 170283 3411 302 90 -5 -0 -5 +1 +9 0.0
202626 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 302268 506010 31980 01 187271321592 134247 3210 266 66 -12 -0 +2 +2 +7 -0.2
202626 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 201175 24209 25881 10 137249303552 166182 4412 242 50 — — — — — —
201818 ROK MLE2 teams — 274248 539113 231041 15 214283415698 202301 388 296 87 — — — — — —
201818 ROK RAW2 teams — 274237 6913117 34761 15 291382570952 278356 2812 411 87 — — — — — —
201919 A MLE2 teams — 512471 8722511 302069 21 185247323570 138297 406 249 55 — — — — — —
201919 A RAW2 teams — 512456 11330615 451529 21 248327439766 191337 309 339 55 — — — — — —
202121 AAA MLE3 teams — 546514 12317120 271512 91 239280393673 154298 285 291 83 — — — — — —
202121 AAA RAW3 teams — 546496 14021126 451172 91 282344486830 204320 218 364 83 — — — — — —
202222 MLB MLE2 teams — 501458 9916025 381883 40 216281415695 199300 388 306 93 -4 +1 -8 +2 +11 0.2
202222 MLB RAW2 teams — 501454 11118030 421723 40 244313482795 238319 348 347 93 -4 +1 -8 +2 +11 0.2
202323 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 464407 9716029 521483 72 238329491820 253293 3211 362 131 +17 +1 -1 +2 +10 2.9
202323 MLB RAWSt. Louis Cardinals — 464406 9617027 531483 72 236329478807 241296 3211 354 131 +17 +1 -1 +2 +10 2.9
202424 MLB MLE2 teams — 500457 9018025 391801 61 197262400662 204255 368 293 85 -9 +1 -4 +2 +11 0.0
202424 MLB RAW2 teams — 500453 9219026 431741 61 203274417691 214258 359 304 85 -9 +1 -4 +2 +11 0.0
202525 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 402353 7213115 451360 11 204294374668 170277 3411 302 90 -5 -0 -5 +1 +9 0.0
202525 MLB RAWSt. Louis Cardinals — 402351 7214114 471360 11 205299370669 165283 3412 300 90 -5 -0 -5 +1 +9 0.0
202626 MLB MLE2 teams — 503443 737019 561861 11 165260309569 144224 3711 257 60 -24 -0 +2 +2 +11 -0.9
202626 MLB RAW2 teams — 503431 798022 681711 11 183296355651 172237 3414 295 60 -24 -0 +2 +2 +11 -0.9
201818 ROK MLE2 teams — 274248 539113 231041 15 214283415698 202285 388 296 87 — — — — — —
201919 A MLE2 teams — 512468 8722511 302069 21 186247325572 139293 406 249 55 — — — — — —
202121 AAA MLE3 teams — 546512 12317120 271512 91 240280395674 154296 285 291 83 — — — — — —
202222 MLB MLE2 teams — 501455 9916025 381883 40 218281418698 200297 388 306 93 — — — — — —
202323 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 464406 9716029 521483 72 239329493822 254296 3211 362 131 — — — — — —
202424 MLB MLE2 teams — 500456 9018025 391801 61 197262401663 204260 368 293 85 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 402354 7213115 451360 11 203294373667 169283 3411 302 90 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLE2 teams — 503441 737019 561861 11 166260311571 145221 3711 257 60 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 MLB MLE2 teams — 500456 9018025 391801 61 197262401663 204260 368 293 85 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 402354 7213115 451360 11 203294373667 169283 3411 302 90 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLE2 teams — 503441 737019 561861 11 166260311571 145221 3711 257 60 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLESTL 100% 478423 8212119 511641 21 193282362644 169256 3411 289 81 -11 +0 -2 +2 +10 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXSTL 100% 393347 6710115 421351 21 191280352632 160257 3411 284 81 -9 +0 -2 +1 +9 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLESTL 100% 385340 649015 411331 10 191280357637 166255 3511 286 80 -9 +0 -3 +1 +8 -0.2
202929 MLB MLESTL 100% 370327 629015 391291 10 189277351628 162253 3511 282 77 -10 +0 -3 +1 +8 -0.4
203030 MLB MLESTL 100% 357316 598014 381250 10 186273342615 156250 3511 277 74 -11 +0 -4 +1 +8 -0.6
202828 MLB CTXSTL 100% 385340 6410014 411331 10 190278347625 157256 3511 281 80 -9 +0 -3 +1 +8 -0.2
202929 MLB CTXSTL 100% 370327 609013 391291 10 187275340616 153254 3511 278 77 -10 +0 -3 +1 +8 -0.4
203030 MLB CTXSTL 100% 357316 599013 381250 10 184272332604 148251 3511 273 74 -11 +0 -4 +1 +8 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 29952654 538931123 31310238 185 203289378666 175272 3410 298 83 -39 +2 -25 +12 +65 1.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650576 11720027 682222 41 203290378668 175272 3410 298 83 -8 +0 -5 +3 +14 0.3
Career— MLE — 52074681 9471549217 470182123 3613 202278378656 176273 359 290 83 -48 +2 -27 +14 +73 1.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650584 11819127 592273 42 202279377655 175272 359 290 83 -9 +0 -5 +3 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 201 PAwOBA .331 → .242 (−89)K% 36.3% → 43.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA36.32%÷1.000×1.200——43.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.41%÷1.000×0.690—×1.01812.23%
HBP% /PA0.50%—×0.940—×1.0180.48%
Singles /BIP16.30%÷1.000×0.930×0.950×1.01814.66%
Doubles /BIP2.17%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×1.0181.74%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP14.13%÷1.000×0.700—×1.01810.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .331 → .242; ISO .248 → .170; BABIP .215 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 98 PAwOBA .323 → .257 (−67)K% 23.5% → 29.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.47%÷0.953×1.200——29.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.18%÷1.014×0.690—×1.0486.55%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0480.00%
Singles /BIP10.77%÷0.991×0.930×1.036×1.04810.97%
Doubles /BIP6.15%÷0.920×0.830×1.036×1.0486.03%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×1.036×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP10.77%÷1.020×0.700—×1.0487.74%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .323 → .257; ISO .284 → .208; BABIP .186 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 188 PAwOBA .385 → .272 (−112)K% 36.7% → 45.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA36.70%÷0.976×1.200——45.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.45%÷1.053×0.690—×1.0505.12%
HBP% /PA0.53%—×0.940—×1.0500.52%
Singles /BIP25.49%÷1.051×0.930×0.950×1.05022.51%
Doubles /BIP4.90%÷1.019×0.830×0.950×1.0503.98%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.950×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP15.69%÷1.048×0.700—×1.05011.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .385 → .272; ISO .310 → .200; BABIP .352 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 328 PAwOBA .337 → .285 (−52)K% 19.2% → 24.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.21%÷0.955×1.200——24.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.79%÷1.056×0.690—×1.0503.97%
HBP% /PA0.61%—×0.940—×1.0500.60%
Singles /BIP22.50%÷1.016×0.930×1.007×1.05021.79%
Doubles /BIP5.83%÷1.029×0.830×1.007×1.0504.98%
Triples /BIP0.42%÷1.150×0.920×1.007×1.0500.35%
Home runs /BIP5.83%÷0.949×0.700—×1.0504.52%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .337 → .285; ISO .191 → .148; BABIP .301 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 195 PAwOBA .368 → .300 (−68)K% 26.7% → 33.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.67%÷0.975×1.220——33.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.23%÷1.020×0.690—×1.0506.56%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP27.20%÷1.003×0.940×0.978×1.05026.18%
Doubles /BIP4.80%÷1.107×0.870×0.978×1.0503.87%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.973×0.920×0.978×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP8.80%÷0.990×0.780—×1.0507.28%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .368 → .300; ISO .220 → .170; BABIP .351 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 APeoria Chiefs · 282 PAwOBA .341 → .259 (−82)K% 28.0% → 36.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.01%÷1.033×1.360——36.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.28%÷1.073×0.690—×1.0456.91%
HBP% /PA2.48%—×0.780—×1.0452.02%
Singles /BIP19.14%÷0.996×0.920×0.950×1.04517.55%
Doubles /BIP8.64%÷1.103×0.830×0.950×1.0456.45%
Triples /BIP1.85%÷1.010×0.910×0.950×1.0451.66%
Home runs /BIP6.17%÷1.105×0.800—×1.0454.67%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 99, 2B 121, 3B 102, K 107, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .341 → .259; ISO .207 → .151; BABIP .312 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 230 PAwOBA .315 → .237 (−78)K% 31.7% → 44.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.74%÷1.014×1.420——44.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.65%÷0.991×0.750—×1.0504.49%
HBP% /PA0.87%—×0.930—×1.0500.85%
Singles /BIP21.83%÷1.048×0.920×0.950×1.05019.11%
Doubles /BIP11.27%÷1.047×0.960×0.950×1.05010.31%
Triples /BIP2.11%÷0.900×0.810×0.950×1.0501.90%
Home runs /BIP3.52%÷0.912×0.880—×1.0503.57%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 110, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .315 → .237; ISO .172 → .133; BABIP .365 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKJohnson City Cardinals · 167 PAwOBA .463 → .340 (−123)K% 22.2% → 31.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.16%÷1.000×1.420——31.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.37%÷1.000×0.640—×1.0229.40%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.740—×1.0220.00%
Singles /BIP26.42%÷1.000×0.840×0.982×1.02222.29%
Doubles /BIP9.43%÷1.000×0.740×0.982×1.0227.01%
Triples /BIP0.94%÷1.000×0.740×0.982×1.0220.70%
Home runs /BIP10.38%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0228.49%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .463 → .340; ISO .315 → .234; BABIP .411 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .