Chris Shaw
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 25 | AAA/AASF | 492 | .294/.362/.559 | 28 | 2 | 93 | — | .233/.286/.431 | |
| 2019 | 25 | MLBSF | 20 | .056/.150/.056 | 0 | 0 | -36 | -1.4 | ||
| 2021 | 27 | AAA/A+2 orgs | 74 | .067/.243/.150 | 1 | 0 | -19 | — | .045/.162/.104 | |
| 2023 | 29 | AACWS | 225 | .197/.329/.426 | 12 | 1 | 37 | — | .125/.222/.270 | |
| 2024 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 256 | 232 | 57 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 55 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 311 | 414 | 725 | 168 | 299 | 21 | 8 | 319 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 305 | 270 | 77 | 22 | 0 | 16 | 28 | 70 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 285 | 361 | 544 | 905 | 259 | 326 | 23 | 9 | 391 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 360 | 336 | 97 | 25 | 1 | 18 | 20 | 106 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 331 | 530 | 860 | 241 | 367 | 29 | 6 | 372 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 154 | 133 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 301 | 392 | 511 | 903 | 211 | 333 | 17 | 12 | 397 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 22 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 273 | 158 | 431 | 176 | 9 | 14 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 62 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 279 | 278 | 556 | 93 | 290 | 37 | 11 | 256 | 62 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.7 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 422 | 394 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 24 | 21 | 144 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 308 | 505 | 813 | 246 | 345 | 34 | 5 | 355 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 20 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 150 | 56 | 206 | 100 | 40 | 10 | 115 | -36 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -9 | +0 | -1.4 | |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 310 | 282 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 21 | 20 | 78 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 298 | 357 | 592 | 949 | 294 | 341 | 25 | 6 | 408 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 182 | 160 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 287 | 370 | 500 | 870 | 213 | 322 | 18 | 10 | 381 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 50 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 240 | 26 | 266 | 71 | 50 | 22 | 172 | -36 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 27 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 24 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 381 | 631 | 238 | 154 | 29 | 12 | 281 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 225 | 188 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 35 | 83 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 329 | 426 | 754 | 229 | 269 | 37 | 16 | 338 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 82 | 72 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 153 | 247 | 222 | 469 | 69 | 244 | 38 | 11 | 222 | 36 | -6 | +0 | -2 | -14 | +2 | -2.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 256 | 239 | 53 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 69 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 268 | 356 | 623 | 134 | 290 | 27 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 305 | 280 | 65 | 18 | 0 | 13 | 18 | 94 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 288 | 436 | 724 | 204 | 289 | 31 | 6 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 360 | 341 | 78 | 19 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 138 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 263 | 422 | 686 | 194 | 324 | 38 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 154 | 139 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 333 | 453 | 787 | 187 | 299 | 21 | 8 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 62 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 279 | 278 | 556 | 93 | 290 | 37 | 11 | 260 | 62 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.7 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 422 | 400 | 86 | 18 | 1 | 18 | 15 | 173 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 256 | 400 | 656 | 185 | 325 | 41 | 4 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 20 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 150 | 56 | 206 | 100 | 40 | 10 | 116 | -36 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -9 | +0 | -1.4 | |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 310 | 288 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 104 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 276 | 434 | 710 | 208 | 285 | 34 | 5 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 182 | 167 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 246 | 304 | 425 | 729 | 180 | 283 | 23 | 7 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 50 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 160 | 23 | 183 | 67 | 62 | 14 | 115 | -36 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 27 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 24 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 167 | 273 | 439 | 182 | 120 | 38 | 8 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 225 | 200 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 108 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 125 | 222 | 270 | 492 | 145 | 207 | 48 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 561 | 519 | 119 | 33 | 3 | 17 | 31 | 163 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 281 | 403 | 683 | 173 | 297 | 29 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 561 | 502 | 134 | 38 | 4 | 21 | 48 | 125 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 338 | 484 | 822 | 217 | 313 | 22 | 9 | 358 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 536 | 501 | 118 | 28 | 1 | 21 | 28 | 179 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 280 | 421 | 701 | 186 | 318 | 33 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 536 | 488 | 140 | 35 | 1 | 24 | 41 | 134 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 287 | 346 | 510 | 856 | 223 | 347 | 25 | 8 | 373 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 454 | 96 | 20 | 1 | 19 | 22 | 196 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 259 | 385 | 644 | 174 | 321 | 40 | 5 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 484 | 448 | 112 | 23 | 2 | 25 | 28 | 167 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 304 | 478 | 782 | 228 | 339 | 35 | 6 | 342 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 512 | 473 | 106 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 28 | 153 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 224 | 279 | 410 | 689 | 186 | 281 | 30 | 5 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 512 | 460 | 131 | 27 | 3 | 28 | 41 | 119 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 285 | 354 | 539 | 893 | 254 | 326 | 23 | 8 | 387 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 74 | 65 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 162 | 108 | 270 | 62 | 83 | 54 | 12 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 74 | 60 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 243 | 150 | 393 | 83 | 111 | 43 | 19 | 207 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 225 | 200 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 108 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 125 | 222 | 270 | 492 | 145 | 202 | 48 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 225 | 188 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 35 | 83 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 329 | 426 | 754 | 229 | 269 | 37 | 16 | 338 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 561 | 519 | 119 | 33 | 3 | 17 | 31 | 163 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 281 | 403 | 683 | 173 | 289 | 29 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 536 | 500 | 118 | 28 | 1 | 21 | 28 | 179 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 280 | 422 | 702 | 186 | 317 | 33 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 452 | 96 | 20 | 1 | 19 | 22 | 196 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 259 | 387 | 646 | 175 | 321 | 40 | 5 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 512 | 471 | 106 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 28 | 153 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 279 | 412 | 691 | 187 | 277 | 30 | 5 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 74 | 65 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 162 | 108 | 270 | 62 | 84 | 54 | 12 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 225 | 198 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 108 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 126 | 222 | 273 | 495 | 146 | 207 | 48 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 82 | 72 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 153 | 247 | 222 | 469 | 69 | 244 | 38 | 11 | 222 | 77 | -6 | +0 | -2 | -14 | +2 | -2.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 571 | 87 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 71 | 246 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 152 | 246 | 222 | 469 | 70 | 243 | 38 | 11 | 222 | 77 | -49 | +2 | -16 | -114 | +14 | -16.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2392 | 2212 | 467 | 108 | 7 | 87 | 141 | 839 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 211 | 266 | 384 | 651 | 173 | 293 | 35 | 6 | 282 | 77 | -6 | +0 | -2 | -14 | +2 | -2.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 601 | 127 | 29 | 2 | 24 | 38 | 228 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 266 | 386 | 652 | 175 | 292 | 35 | 6 | 282 | 77 | -49 | +2 | -16 | -114 | +14 | -16.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AABirmingham Barons · 225 PAwOBA .330 → .223 (−107)K% 36.9% → 48.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.89% | ÷0.938 | ×1.220 | — | — | 48.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.56% | ÷0.995 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.948 | 10.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.948 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷1.069 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.948 | 13.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.961 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.948 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.43% | ÷1.013 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.948 | 8.56% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 93, K 88, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .330 → .223; ISO .229 → .155; BABIP .269 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 50 PAwOBA .169 → .115 (−54)K% 50.0% → 61.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 50.00% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 61.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 14.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 6.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .169 → .115; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .071 → .067. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 24 PAwOBA .274 → .190 (−84)K% 29.2% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.17% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 39.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.948 | 8.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.948 | 11.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.041 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.948 | 5.40% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .274 → .190; ISO .238 → .164; BABIP .154 → .120. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAASacramento River Cats · 310 PAwOBA .398 → .301 (−97)K% 25.2% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.16% | ÷0.971 | ×1.290 | — | — | 33.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.13% | ÷0.980 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 4.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.57% | ÷0.982 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 19.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.981 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 7.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.008 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.29% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 7.96% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 96, 3B 102, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .398 → .301; ISO .294 → .209; BABIP .341 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 182 PAwOBA .372 → .311 (−60)K% 18.1% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.13% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.89% | ÷1.011 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.05% | ÷1.020 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 19.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.09% | ÷0.916 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 6.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.57% | ÷1.147 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.51% | ÷0.890 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.77% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 104, 2B 83, 3B 129, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .372 → .311; ISO .212 → .182; BABIP .322 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAASacramento River Cats · 422 PAwOBA .344 → .279 (−65)K% 34.1% → 41.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.12% | ÷1.071 | ×1.290 | — | — | 41.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.98% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 3.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.900 | ×1.014 | ×1.033 | 21.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.40% | ÷0.910 | ×0.810 | ×1.014 | ×1.033 | 7.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.014 | ×1.033 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.60% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 7.75% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 114, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .344 → .279; ISO .246 → .186; BABIP .345 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAASacramento River Cats · 360 PAwOBA .364 → .290 (−74)K% 29.4% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.44% | ÷0.989 | ×1.290 | — | — | 38.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷0.952 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 4.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.28% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.04% | ÷1.027 | ×0.900 | ×0.983 | ×1.048 | 20.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.87% | ÷0.975 | ×0.810 | ×0.983 | ×1.048 | 9.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷0.920 | ×0.810 | ×0.983 | ×1.048 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.83% | ÷0.889 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 7.20% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 98, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .364 → .290; ISO .241 → .193; BABIP .367 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 154 PAwOBA .385 → .333 (−51)K% 16.9% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.88% | ÷0.948 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.39% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.43% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 21.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.35% | ÷1.096 | ×0.860 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 7.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.61% | ÷0.848 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 5.22% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 101, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .385 → .333; ISO .211 → .185; BABIP .333 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).