Mike Olt
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28 | AABOS | 448 | .245/.333/.436 | 16 | 0 | 55 | — | .187/.249/.316 |
| 2018 | 29 | AAAPawtucket Red… | 279 | .224/.357/.430 | 11 | 0 | 53 | — | .170/.260/.300 |
| 2019 | 30 | AAAAlgodoneros U… | 32 | .172/.250/.207 | 0 | 0 | -4 | — | .133/.188/.167 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 292 | 240 | 64 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 48 | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 267 | 391 | 504 | 895 | 237 | 314 | 24 | 16 | 391 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK | AZL Rangers | — | 15 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 429 | 695 | 214 | 250 | 33 | 7 | 306 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 127 | 106 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 15 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 349 | 444 | 764 | 1.208 | 415 | 400 | 28 | 12 | 499 | 224 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 40 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 152 | 263 | 182 | 445 | 30 | 227 | 32 | 12 | 210 | 22 | -4 | -0 | -2 | -9 | +1 | -1.5 |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 421 | 354 | 102 | 17 | 1 | 28 | 61 | 101 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 288 | 398 | 579 | 977 | 291 | 327 | 24 | 14 | 423 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 70 | 56 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 391 | 429 | 820 | 179 | 316 | 24 | 17 | 366 | 134 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 420 | 361 | 71 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 55 | 126 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 305 | 368 | 673 | 172 | 254 | 30 | 13 | 303 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | — | 258 | 225 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 100 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 160 | 253 | 356 | 609 | 196 | 203 | 39 | 10 | 269 | 70 | -9 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 115 | 106 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 302 | 351 | 585 | 936 | 283 | 373 | 29 | 7 | 402 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 102 | 94 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 191 | 255 | 319 | 574 | 128 | 255 | 34 | 7 | 261 | 62 | -5 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 235 | 211 | 56 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 71 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 265 | 333 | 460 | 793 | 194 | 356 | 30 | 9 | 349 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 195 | 161 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 255 | 371 | 404 | 775 | 149 | 353 | 28 | 16 | 349 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 448 | 392 | 96 | 23 | 2 | 16 | 48 | 117 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 333 | 436 | 769 | 191 | 307 | 26 | 11 | 340 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 279 | 228 | 51 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 86 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 357 | 430 | 787 | 206 | 303 | 31 | 16 | 351 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA | Algodoneros Union Laguna | — | 32 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 250 | 207 | 457 | 34 | 263 | 31 | 9 | 219 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 400 | 352 | 59 | 9 | 0 | 16 | 37 | 148 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 168 | 254 | 330 | 584 | 162 | 221 | 37 | 9 | 261 | 63 | -18 | -1 | -7 | -7 | +9 | -2.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 292 | 260 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 100 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 277 | 354 | 631 | 158 | 263 | 34 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 200 | 357 | 557 | 214 | 192 | 47 | 7 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 40 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 152 | 263 | 182 | 445 | 30 | 227 | 32 | 12 | 200 | 22 | -4 | -0 | -2 | -9 | +1 | -1.5 |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 421 | 379 | 89 | 14 | 1 | 20 | 37 | 125 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 235 | 310 | 435 | 745 | 201 | 291 | 30 | 9 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 420 | 377 | 54 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 162 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 225 | 255 | 480 | 111 | 212 | 39 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago Cubs | — | 258 | 225 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 100 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 160 | 253 | 356 | 609 | 196 | 203 | 39 | 10 | 271 | 70 | -9 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 115 | 109 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 263 | 450 | 713 | 220 | 296 | 37 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 102 | 94 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 191 | 255 | 319 | 574 | 128 | 255 | 34 | 7 | 259 | 62 | -5 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 235 | 218 | 45 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 87 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 206 | 261 | 353 | 614 | 147 | 299 | 37 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 195 | 174 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 289 | 322 | 610 | 115 | 298 | 34 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 448 | 411 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 146 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 249 | 316 | 566 | 129 | 255 | 33 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 279 | 247 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 104 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 260 | 300 | 560 | 130 | 246 | 37 | 10 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | Algodoneros Union Laguna | — | 32 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 167 | 354 | 33 | 231 | 41 | 6 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 434 | 384 | 75 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 40 | 152 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 195 | 278 | 352 | 630 | 156 | 269 | 35 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 434 | 360 | 104 | 20 | 0 | 28 | 64 | 111 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 289 | 402 | 578 | 980 | 289 | 335 | 26 | 15 | 420 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 531 | 473 | 107 | 17 | 1 | 23 | 49 | 159 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 226 | 306 | 412 | 718 | 186 | 285 | 30 | 9 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 531 | 443 | 121 | 22 | 1 | 30 | 78 | 131 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 273 | 387 | 530 | 918 | 257 | 318 | 25 | 15 | 399 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 420 | 377 | 54 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 162 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 225 | 255 | 480 | 111 | 215 | 39 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 420 | 361 | 71 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 55 | 126 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 305 | 368 | 673 | 172 | 254 | 30 | 13 | 303 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 334 | 61 | 14 | 0 | 18 | 30 | 143 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 183 | 256 | 386 | 642 | 204 | 240 | 38 | 8 | 277 | 73 | -12 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +8 | -0.5 |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 373 | 331 | 68 | 17 | 0 | 19 | 33 | 133 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 283 | 429 | 712 | 224 | 265 | 36 | 9 | 310 | 73 | -12 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +8 | -0.5 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 337 | 312 | 63 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 122 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 202 | 259 | 343 | 602 | 141 | 289 | 36 | 6 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 337 | 305 | 74 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 106 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 243 | 310 | 416 | 726 | 174 | 326 | 31 | 8 | 322 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 195 | 174 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 289 | 322 | 610 | 115 | 305 | 34 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA RAW | San Antonio Missions | — | 195 | 161 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 255 | 371 | 404 | 775 | 149 | 353 | 28 | 16 | 349 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 448 | 411 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 146 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 249 | 316 | 566 | 129 | 258 | 33 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 448 | 392 | 96 | 23 | 2 | 16 | 48 | 117 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 333 | 436 | 769 | 191 | 307 | 26 | 11 | 340 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 279 | 247 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 104 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 260 | 300 | 560 | 130 | 255 | 37 | 10 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA RAW | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 279 | 228 | 51 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 86 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 357 | 430 | 787 | 206 | 303 | 31 | 16 | 351 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | Algodoneros Union Laguna | — | 32 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 167 | 354 | 33 | 235 | 41 | 6 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA RAW | Algodoneros Union Laguna | — | 32 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 250 | 207 | 457 | 34 | 263 | 31 | 9 | 219 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 434 | 387 | 75 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 40 | 152 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 194 | 278 | 349 | 627 | 155 | 260 | 35 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 531 | 472 | 107 | 17 | 1 | 23 | 49 | 159 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 227 | 306 | 413 | 719 | 186 | 285 | 30 | 9 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 420 | 377 | 54 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 162 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 225 | 255 | 480 | 111 | 212 | 39 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 337 | 61 | 14 | 0 | 18 | 30 | 143 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 181 | 256 | 383 | 639 | 202 | 232 | 38 | 8 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 337 | 310 | 63 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 122 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 203 | 259 | 345 | 604 | 142 | 286 | 36 | 6 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 195 | 173 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 289 | 324 | 612 | 116 | 298 | 34 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 448 | 411 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 146 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 249 | 316 | 566 | 129 | 255 | 33 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 279 | 247 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 104 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 260 | 300 | 560 | 130 | 246 | 37 | 10 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | Algodoneros Union Laguna | — | 32 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 167 | 354 | 33 | 231 | 41 | 6 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 400 | 352 | 59 | 9 | 0 | 16 | 37 | 148 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 168 | 254 | 330 | 584 | 162 | 221 | 37 | 9 | 261 | 66 | -18 | -1 | -7 | -7 | +9 | -2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 572 | 96 | 15 | 0 | 26 | 60 | 240 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 168 | 254 | 330 | 584 | 163 | 221 | 37 | 9 | 261 | 66 | -29 | -2 | -12 | -11 | +14 | -4.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3049 | 2742 | 519 | 106 | 4 | 98 | 258 | 1067 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 189 | 265 | 338 | 603 | 149 | 263 | 35 | 8 | 265 | 66 | -18 | -1 | -7 | -7 | +9 | -2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 111 | 23 | 1 | 21 | 55 | 227 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 190 | 265 | 340 | 605 | 150 | 263 | 35 | 8 | 265 | 66 | -29 | -2 | -12 | -11 | +14 | -4.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAAlgodoneros Union Laguna · 32 PAwOBA .214 → .162 (−52)K% 31.2% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷0.956 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.004 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 6.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.962 | 19.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.962 | 3.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.116 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 123, K 91, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .214 → .162; ISO .034 → .024; BABIP .263 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 279 PAwOBA .343 → .247 (−95)K% 30.8% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.82% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.77% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 9.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×0.972 | 16.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.86% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×0.972 | 7.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.75% | ÷1.342 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 4.71% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 100, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .343 → .247; ISO .206 → .137; BABIP .303 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 448 PAwOBA .332 → .249 (−83)K% 26.1% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.12% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 6.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 17.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.36% | ÷1.085 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 6.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷1.010 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.82% | ÷1.020 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 4.26% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 117, 3B 102, K 95, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .332 → .249; ISO .191 → .137; BABIP .307 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AASan Antonio Missions · 195 PAwOBA .340 → .273 (−67)K% 28.2% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.21% | ÷1.012 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 10.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.47% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×0.968 | 21.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.49% | ÷0.951 | ×0.840 | ×0.975 | ×0.968 | 7.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.975 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.72% | ÷0.933 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 3.91% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 102, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .340 → .273; ISO .149 → .127; BABIP .353 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAIowa Cubs · 235 PAwOBA .341 → .268 (−73)K% 30.2% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.21% | ÷1.051 | ×1.290 | — | — | 37.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.51% | ÷0.996 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 6.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.57% | ÷1.008 | ×0.900 | ×0.971 | ×1.003 | 20.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.810 | ×0.971 | ×1.003 | 8.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.810 | ×0.971 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.43% | ÷0.916 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 5.49% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 90, K 110, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .341 → .268; ISO .194 → .153; BABIP .356 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAIowa Cubs · 115 PAwOBA .393 → .289 (−105)K% 28.7% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.70% | ÷0.996 | ×1.290 | — | — | 37.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.96% | ÷1.249 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 4.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.92% | ÷1.021 | ×0.900 | ×0.957 | ×1.018 | 18.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.33% | ÷1.111 | ×0.810 | ×0.957 | ×1.018 | 8.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.957 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.59% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 8.20% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 104, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 99, BB 150 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .393 → .289; ISO .283 → .213; BABIP .373 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAIowa Cubs · 420 PAwOBA .296 → .219 (−77)K% 30.0% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.004 | ×1.290 | — | — | 38.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 9.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.24% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.17% | ÷1.009 | ×0.900 | ×0.966 | ×1.033 | 14.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.66% | ÷1.050 | ×0.810 | ×0.966 | ×1.033 | 5.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.012 | ×0.810 | ×0.966 | ×1.033 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.96% | ÷1.130 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 4.25% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 102, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .296 → .219; ISO .172 → .117; BABIP .254 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 421 PAwOBA .409 → .324 (−84)K% 24.0% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.99% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.30% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.13% | ÷0.978 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 21.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.72% | ÷1.035 | ×0.840 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 5.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷1.016 | ×0.940 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.07% | ÷1.137 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 7.88% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 103, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .409 → .324; ISO .291 → .215; BABIP .327 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).