Jack Suwinski

CF Durham Bulls

Age 29 L/L 6'1" / 217 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 2.988S2 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

AAAArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	26	AAAPIT	202	.239/.312/.444	7	3	56	—	.184/.241/.324
2024	26	MLBPIT	277	.182/.265/.324	9	9	66	-1.0
2025	27	AAAPIT	230	.283/.394/.565	14	6	97	—	.222/.301/.433
2025	27	MLBPIT	178	.147/.281/.253	3	7	58	-0.5
2026	28	AAATB	545	.274/.366/.489	22	11	82	—	.220/.290/.371
2027PROJ10% MLB	29	MLBTB	24	.207/.285/.366	1	1	83	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	30	MLBTB	110	.203/.280/.357	3	2	80	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.5 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.988First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$0.2M2028Arb-2$0.2M2029Ext$0.4M2030Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Barrel%83

Bat Spd74

xwOBA65

Speed60

Avg EV59

CompsSam Hilliard (age 29) · Daniel Palka (age 30) · Jason Vosler (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7583vR 85

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .285 / .366

PA24

HR1

K%29

BB%8

BABIP265

ISO182

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT40

xAVG

100.212

POWER50

Barrel%

8313.1

Avg EV

5989.7

Bat Spd

7473.9

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

6027.9

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 448 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

410

—

wRC+

◀L

wOBA

273

262

◀L

ISO

114

132

▶R

BABIP

438

211

◀◀L

47.4%

28.3%

▶▶R

BB%

5.3%

11.2%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.988 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-2	$0.2M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	18	ROK	AZL Padres	—	123	108	26	5	0	0	12	19	2	3	0	241	328	287	615	46	289	15	10	287	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	532	462	105	21	4	9	55	139	9	6	5	227	321	348	670	121	302	26	10	303	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	441	392	100	16	7	10	37	89	5	7	3	255	327	408	735	153	303	20	8	324	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	471	408	85	16	3	12	56	141	1	2	1	208	305	350	656	142	282	30	12	295	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Altoona Curve	—	449	367	96	17	4	19	70	125	5	11	8	262	387	485	872	223	338	28	16	381	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	372	326	66	11	0	19	41	114	4	4	2	202	299	411	710	209	242	31	11	317	104	+2	+0	+0	-6	+8	0.4
2022	24	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	130	117	25	5	0	6	11	49	1	1	0	214	287	410	697	197	302	38	8	308	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	57	51	18	8	0	3	5	14	1	1	0	353	421	686	1.107	333	441	25	9	475	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	534	447	100	21	2	26	75	172	6	13	2	224	343	454	797	230	290	32	14	351	126	+17	+2	-1	+2	+12	3.1
2024	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	277	247	45	8	0	9	27	79	1	9	1	182	265	324	589	142	225	29	10	267	66	-11	+1	-8	+2	+6	-1.0
2024	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	202	180	43	10	3	7	17	59	2	3	0	239	312	444	756	206	308	29	8	329	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	178	150	22	7	0	3	24	57	4	7	1	147	281	253	534	107	211	32	13	257	58	-9	+1	-2	+1	+4	-0.5
2025	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	230	191	54	10	1	14	31	69	4	6	0	283	394	565	959	283	360	30	13	410	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	545	470	129	31	2	22	63	127	5	11	1	274	366	489	856	215	327	23	12	373	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1361	1170	233	47	2	57	167	422	15	33	6	199	307	389	696	190	252	31	12	312	97	-4	+4	-11	-1	+29	1.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	123	112	21	4	0	0	8	27	2	3	0	188	254	223	477	36	237	22	7	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	532	482	90	17	3	7	35	195	9	6	5	187	255	278	533	91	284	37	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	441	403	84	12	7	7	26	121	5	7	3	208	265	325	590	117	267	27	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	471	425	68	12	2	11	39	192	1	2	1	160	232	275	508	115	249	41	8	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	449	389	83	15	3	16	48	154	5	11	8	213	308	391	698	177	293	34	11	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	372	327	68	11	0	21	40	114	4	4	2	208	302	434	736	226	242	31	11	322	104	+2	+0	+0	-6	+8	0.4
2022	24	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	130	120	19	4	0	4	8	60	1	1	0	158	217	292	509	133	250	46	6	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	57	52	15	7	0	2	4	17	1	1	0	288	351	538	889	250	411	30	7	381	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	534	449	101	20	2	28	73	172	6	13	2	225	341	465	806	241	290	32	14	354	126	+17	+2	-1	+2	+12	3.1
2024	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	277	249	46	8	0	10	25	79	1	9	1	185	262	337	599	153	225	29	9	266	66	-11	+1	-8	+2	+6	-1.0
2024	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	202	185	34	7	2	5	12	75	2	3	0	184	241	324	566	141	262	37	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	178	151	22	7	0	3	23	57	4	7	1	146	275	252	527	106	211	32	13	254	58	-9	+1	-2	+1	+4	-0.5
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	230	203	45	8	1	11	19	86	4	6	0	222	301	433	734	212	300	37	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	545	490	108	25	2	15	43	153	5	11	1	220	290	371	661	151	277	28	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	123	112	21	4	0	0	8	27	2	3	0	188	254	223	477	36	244	22	7	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	—	123	108	26	5	0	0	12	19	2	3	0	241	328	287	615	46	289	15	10	287	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	532	482	90	17	3	7	35	195	9	6	5	187	255	278	533	91	292	37	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	532	462	105	21	4	9	55	139	9	6	5	227	321	348	670	121	302	26	10	303	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	441	403	84	12	7	7	26	121	5	7	3	208	265	325	590	117	276	27	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	441	392	100	16	7	10	37	89	5	7	3	255	327	408	735	153	303	20	8	324	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	471	425	68	12	2	11	39	192	1	2	1	160	232	275	508	115	252	41	8	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	471	408	85	16	3	12	56	141	1	2	1	208	305	350	656	142	282	30	12	295	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	449	389	83	15	3	16	48	154	5	11	8	213	308	391	698	177	299	34	11	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	—	449	367	96	17	4	19	70	125	5	11	8	262	387	485	872	223	338	28	16	381	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	559	500	102	22	0	27	51	191	6	6	2	204	285	410	695	206	264	34	9	304	92	-5	+0	+0	-6	+12	0.1
2022	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	559	494	109	24	0	28	57	177	6	6	2	221	309	439	748	219	278	32	10	331	92	-5	+0	+0	-6	+12	0.1
2023	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	534	449	101	20	2	28	73	172	6	13	2	225	341	465	806	241	286	32	14	354	126	+17	+2	-1	+2	+12	3.1
2023	25	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	534	447	100	21	2	26	75	172	6	13	2	224	343	454	797	230	290	32	14	351	126	+17	+2	-1	+2	+12	3.1
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	479	434	80	15	2	15	37	154	3	12	1	184	253	332	585	147	242	32	8	260	62	-22	+2	-8	+2	+10	-1.6
2024	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	479	427	88	18	3	16	44	138	3	12	1	206	285	375	660	169	260	29	9	293	62	-22	+2	-8	+2	+10	-1.6
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	408	354	67	15	1	14	42	143	8	13	1	189	290	356	646	167	265	35	10	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	408	341	76	17	1	17	55	126	8	13	1	223	344	428	772	205	294	31	13	344	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	545	490	108	25	2	15	43	153	5	11	1	220	290	371	661	151	284	28	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	545	470	129	31	2	22	63	127	5	11	1	274	366	489	856	215	327	23	12	373	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	123	112	21	4	0	0	8	27	2	3	0	188	254	223	477	36	237	22	7	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	532	483	90	17	3	7	35	195	9	6	5	186	255	277	532	91	284	37	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	441	407	84	12	7	7	26	121	5	7	3	206	265	322	587	115	267	27	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	471	428	68	12	2	11	39	192	1	2	1	159	232	273	506	114	249	41	8	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	449	393	83	15	3	16	48	154	5	11	8	211	308	387	694	176	293	34	11	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	559	497	102	22	0	27	51	191	6	6	2	205	285	412	698	207	261	34	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	534	450	101	20	2	28	73	172	6	13	2	224	341	464	805	240	290	32	14	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	479	436	80	15	2	15	37	154	3	12	1	183	253	330	583	147	241	32	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	408	355	67	15	1	14	42	143	8	13	1	189	290	355	645	166	261	35	10	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	545	492	108	25	2	15	43	153	5	11	1	220	290	370	660	150	277	28	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	479	436	80	15	2	15	37	154	3	12	1	183	253	330	583	147	241	32	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	408	355	67	15	1	14	42	143	8	13	1	189	290	355	645	166	261	35	10	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	545	492	108	25	2	15	43	153	5	11	1	220	290	370	660	150	277	28	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TB	10%	499	447	93	19	2	17	43	147	6	12	3	206	284	369	653	162	263	29	9	291	83	-10	+1	-2	+2	+11	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	TB	10%	24	22	5	1	0	1	2	7	0	1	0	207	285	366	651	159	265	29	8	291	83	-0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TB	27%	404	363	73	15	1	13	34	120	4	7	2	203	280	360	639	157	260	30	8	286	80	-10	+1	-4	+1	+9	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	TB	27%	110	99	19	4	0	3	9	33	1	2	0	203	280	357	637	154	262	30	8	285	80	-3	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1471	1269	252	51	2	60	176	455	16	35	6	199	304	384	688	185	252	31	12	310	76	-7	+5	-12	-1	+32	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	561	112	23	1	27	78	201	7	15	3	200	305	389	694	189	252	31	12	310	76	-3	+2	-5	-0	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5183	4614	921	181	24	161	456	1692	57	97	27	200	280	354	634	154	271	33	9	280	76	-19	+6	-16	+1	+43	1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	116	23	3	20	57	212	7	12	3	200	280	354	634	154	273	33	9	280	76	-6	+2	-5	+0	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 545 PAwOBA .367 → .289 (−77)K% 23.3% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.30%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.38%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.79%
HBP% /PA	0.92%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.86%
Singles /BIP	21.57%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.964	×0.992	19.19%
Doubles /BIP	9.04%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.964	×0.992	7.18%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.964	×0.992	0.54%
Home runs /BIP	6.41%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.992	4.45%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .367 → .289; ISO .215 → .159; BABIP .327 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 230 PAwOBA .405 → .312 (−93)K% 30.0% → 37.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.00%	÷0.965	×1.200	—	—	37.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.48%	÷1.112	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.39%
HBP% /PA	1.74%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.64%
Singles /BIP	23.77%	÷1.008	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	20.91%
Doubles /BIP	8.20%	÷0.995	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	6.51%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.66%
Home runs /BIP	11.48%	÷0.915	×0.700	—	×1.003	8.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .405 → .312; ISO .283 → .217; BABIP .360 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 202 PAwOBA .323 → .251 (−72)K% 29.2% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.21%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	36.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.92%	÷0.977	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.70%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.95%
Singles /BIP	19.01%	÷1.009	×0.930	×0.964	×1.018	17.20%
Doubles /BIP	8.26%	÷1.050	×0.830	×0.964	×1.018	6.41%
Triples /BIP	2.48%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.964	×1.018	2.05%
Home runs /BIP	5.79%	÷0.909	×0.700	—	×1.018	4.54%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .323 → .251; ISO .206 → .153; BABIP .308 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 130 PAwOBA .301 → .218 (−83)K% 37.7% → 46.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.69%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	46.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.46%	÷1.058	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.78%
HBP% /PA	0.77%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.76%
Singles /BIP	20.59%	÷1.087	×0.930	×0.950	×1.048	17.54%
Doubles /BIP	7.35%	÷0.964	×0.830	×0.950	×1.048	6.31%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.942	×0.970	×0.950	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.82%	÷1.013	×0.700	—	×1.048	6.39%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .301 → .218; ISO .197 → .134; BABIP .302 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAltoona Curve · 57 PAwOBA .461 → .381 (−80)K% 24.6% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.56%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	30.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.77%	÷1.006	×0.700	—	×1.012	6.18%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	1.51%
Singles /BIP	18.92%	÷1.010	×0.970	—	×1.012	18.38%
Doubles /BIP	21.62%	÷0.928	×0.860	—	×1.012	20.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.11%	÷1.084	×0.780	—	×1.012	5.91%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .461 → .381; ISO .333 → .261; BABIP .441 → .411. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAltoona Curve · 449 PAwOBA .375 → .307 (−67)K% 27.8% → 34.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.84%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	34.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.37%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.027	10.74%
HBP% /PA	1.11%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.97%
Singles /BIP	23.14%	÷1.042	×0.940	×0.950	×1.027	20.36%
Doubles /BIP	7.02%	÷0.948	×0.870	×0.950	×1.027	6.29%
Triples /BIP	1.65%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	7.85%	÷0.947	×0.780	—	×1.027	6.64%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 108, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .375 → .307; ISO .223 → .190; BABIP .338 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 471 PAwOBA .287 → .231 (−56)K% 29.9% → 40.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.94%	÷0.987	×1.340	—	—	40.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.04%	÷0.977	×0.710	—	×1.027	8.24%
HBP% /PA	0.21%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	0.17%
Singles /BIP	20.22%	÷0.990	×0.910	×0.950	×1.027	18.13%
Doubles /BIP	5.99%	÷0.940	×0.820	×0.950	×1.027	5.10%
Triples /BIP	1.12%	÷0.900	×0.760	×0.950	×1.027	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	4.49%	÷0.900	×0.920	—	×1.027	4.72%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .287 → .231; ISO .142 → .124; BABIP .282 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 441 PAwOBA .318 → .254 (−64)K% 20.2% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.18%	÷0.998	×1.360	—	—	27.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.39%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×1.030	6.04%
HBP% /PA	1.13%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.91%
Singles /BIP	22.11%	÷0.994	×0.920	×0.955	×1.030	20.13%
Doubles /BIP	5.28%	÷1.054	×0.830	×0.955	×1.030	4.09%
Triples /BIP	2.31%	÷0.910	×0.910	×0.955	×1.030	2.27%
Home runs /BIP	3.30%	÷1.176	×0.800	—	×1.030	2.31%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 82, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .318 → .254; ISO .153 → .115; BABIP .303 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	5.5	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
/162	664	20	13	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13
#2Roger Repoz'64-'72 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,471 PA	3.7	2,471	82	26	233*	321*	434*	-12	-2	7.8	8.1
/162	664	22	7	-3.4	-0.5	2.1	pk7: 8
#3Rick Ankiel'99-'13 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,115 PA	3.2	2,115	76	21	236*	296*	423*	+0	-2	4.6	4.9
/162	664	24	7	+0.1	-0.6	1.4	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.3	1,495	61	36	201	303	389	+4	-15	4.1	4.2
/162	664	27	16	+1.7	-6.5	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Ruben Rivera'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,818 PA	2.7	1,818	64	50	206*	292*	376*	-1	+20	4.0	4.0
/162	664	23	18	-0.3	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 4
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Dylan Carlsonlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,987 PA	3.0	1,987	43	16	233	312	372	-9	-22	0.8	0.8
/162	664	14	5	-3.0	-7.4	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jack Suwinski (OGILVIE)	29	40	50	55	60	204/282/365	161	263	8	6	29%	9%	83	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sam Hilliard 2023 · MLB	29	37→47	53→55	54→55	46	203/278/374	171	267	22	14	32%	9%	83	+0.1	219/287/392	173	305	20	17	33%	9%	91	+0.6	212/277/398	186	292	19	20	33%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Daniel Palka 2022 · MLB	30	40→43	51→55	50	48	210/281/366	155	262	19	7	28%	9%	82	+0.0	212/269/358	146	273	19	5	29%	7%	76	-0.4	200/255/340	139	255	19	2	29%	7%	62	-1.0
✕Jason Vosler 2023 · MLB	29	42→44	51→55	49→40	45	220/282/377	157	268	20	6	26%	7%	85	+0.2	213/271/374	161	270	20	6	28%	7%	80	-0.1	203/262/367	164	253	21	4	29%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Andy Wilkins 2018 · MLB	29	36→46	50→55	50→45	43	195/257/343	148	251	18	5	30%	8%	68	-1.0	183/250/333	150	262	20	6	37%	8%	63	-1.3	138/208/284	146	185	22	2	39%	8%	35	-1.3
✕Corey Brown 2015 · MLB	29	39→49	52→55	50	38	209/259/376	167	289	21	13	35%	6%	76	-0.4	200/250/361	161	288	20	15	36%	6%	70	-0.9	196/252/364	168	277	21	17	37%	7%	69	-0.7
✕Billy McKinney 2024 · MLB	29	42→52	51→60	51→45	48	217/294/375	158	277	19	6	28%	9%	89	+0.5	217/289/349	132	283	15	7	27%	8%	81	-0.1	203/276/319	115	266	12	6	27%	8%	68	-0.5
✕Daniel Johnson 2024 · MLB	29	41→51	48→55	52→55	42	212/269/354	143	269	17	18	28%	6%	74	-0.5	216/264/353	137	270	16	17	26%	5%	72	-0.7	214/258/353	140	266	17	17	26%	5%	68	-0.7
✕George Lombard 2005 · MLB	29	47→43	47→50	55	45	236/294/376	140	296	15	17	25%	7%	88	+0.5	223/292/377	154	307	17	23	31%	8%	88	+0.5	213/285/362	149	294	17	27	32%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Darick Hall 2024 · MLB	29	42→39	53→55	46→40	44	225/283/392	167	273	22	4	27%	7%	89	+0.5	205/265/322	117	270	14	4	29%	7%	66	-1.1	182/244/273	91	243	12	1	29%	7%	44	-1.6
✕Weston Wilson 2024 · MLB	29	39→42	50→55	55	44	207/276/355	148	279	19	24	32%	8%	78	-0.3	213/286/366	153	280	19	21	30%	9%	84	+0.1	207/282/354	147	267	19	21	29%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Simon Pond 2006 · MLB	29	43→42	49→50	47→45	41	220/273/365	146	288	17	8	30%	6%	79	-0.2	217/270/347	130	291	13	6	29%	7%	73	-0.6	206/261/330	124	275	11	3	28%	7%	65	-1.1
✕John-Ford Griffin 2009 · AAA	29	43→40	51→55	49→40	44	224/280/388	165	276	19	4	27%	7%	87	+0.4	219/277/344	125	293	11	8	28%	7%	75	-0.5	200/258/302	103	280	6	7	29%	6%	57	-1.1
✕Jose Rojas 2022 · MLB	29	42→48	51→60	47→50	45	219/274/385	166	263	19	8	25%	7%	84	+0.1	211/269/387	176	253	22	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0	197/261/391	194	228	25	10	26%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Brian O'Grady 2021 · MLB	29	43→38	57→60	52→50	40	227/284/423	196	297	25	16	32%	6%	97	+1.1	214/281/373	159	294	17	14	31%	8%	84	+0.1	191/264/352	161	259	16	13	32%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Luke Allen 2007 · AAA	28	44→43	48→50	49→45	45	227/276/368	140	272	16	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	243/293/360	117	284	12	7	18%	6%	84	+0.1	265/312/362	97	296	8	3	13%	6%	89	+0.3
✕CJ Alexander 2024 · AAA	28	36→46	53→55	51→50	37	202/244/368	167	261	22	13	32%	5%	69	-0.9	216/266/374	158	288	18	7	30%	6%	78	-0.3	209/262/367	158	279	18	4	31%	6%	71	-0.5
✕Brad Snyder 2011 · MLB	29	45→51	54→55	53→50	39	232/279/415	183	308	21	15	31%	6%	93	+0.8	232/276/384	152	330	17	13	33%	6%	84	+0.1	225/276/381	155	323	18	11	35%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Stephen Scott 2024 · AAA	27	39→44	49→50	49→50	51	206/287/354	149	248	17	8	25%	10%	82	-0.0	215/278/353	138	280	15	12	27%	7%	78	-0.3	231/283/382	151	299	15	14	27%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Ka'ai Tom 2022 · MLB	28	41→49	48→55	49→50	45	207/290/351	144	275	15	6	30%	8%	82	+0.0	207/284/333	126	287	13	10	31%	8%	76	-0.4	192/269/314	122	266	13	10	31%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Luis Liberato 2024 · AAA	28	45→50	48→50	47→50	47	222/291/372	150	298	15	11	30%	9%	87	+0.4	223/280/339	116	315	10	13	30%	7%	74	-0.5	216/263/303	86	315	5	12	31%	6%	56	-0.9

Jack Suwinski

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps