Michael Chavis

1B Louisville Bats

Age 31 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AAA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAACWS	457	.257/.334/.444	16	10	63	—	.206/.264/.339
2025	29	AAALAD	283	.291/.351/.547	13	2	91	—	.240/.280/.419
2026	30	AAACIN	505	.248/.330/.454	25	4	65	—	.203/.266/.343
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBCIN	24	.244/.298/.409	1	0	94	-0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	32	MLBCIN	82	.237/.290/.394	3	0	88	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Speed81

Bat Spd63

Barrel%34

Avg EV11

xwOBA10

CompsJohn Hicks (age 31) · Tim Beckham (age 31) · Eric Haase (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†94

AVG/OBP/SLG.244 / .298 / .409

PA24

HR1

K%25

BB%4

BABIP299

ISO174

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT55

xAVG

130.221

POWER60

Barrel%

346.2

Avg EV

1186.1

Bat Spd

6372.7

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

8128.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+0.1	$0.2M	-$4M
Totals		$4M		$0.2M	-$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	150	134	36	12	3	1	15	38	1	5	3	269	347	425	772	157	368	25	10	344	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Greenville Drive	—	471	435	97	29	1	16	29	144	4	8	5	223	278	405	682	182	293	31	6	300	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	27	25	4	0	0	0	2	7	0	1	0	160	222	160	382		222	26	7	186	-19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	Greenville Drive	—	312	279	68	11	3	8	22	74	10	3	1	244	322	391	712	147	303	24	7	320	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	274	248	62	18	0	14	20	56	3	1	0	250	314	492	806	242	265	20	7	349	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	250	223	71	17	2	17	19	57	7	1	0	318	390	641	1.031	323	360	23	8	442	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	104	92	24	6	1	4	7	20	3	0	0	261	333	478	812	217	286	19	7	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	34	33	9	3	0	2	1	12	0	0	0	273	294	545	840	273	368	35	3	363	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	139	122	37	7	0	6	13	35	4	3	1	303	388	508	897	205	383	25	9	397	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	382	347	88	10	1	18	31	127	4	2	1	254	322	444	766	190	347	33	8	340	112	+5	+0	+0	-8	+8	0.6
2019	23	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	79	70	18	4	0	7	8	21	0	0	0	257	333	614	948	357	256	27	10	400	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	158	146	31	5	2	5	8	50	2	3	0	212	263	377	640	164	280	32	5	280	74	-5	+1	-4	-3	+3	-0.8
2021	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	124	121	30	7	1	3	1	42	1	1	2	248	260	397	657	149	351	34	1	286	81	-3	-1	+2	+1	+3	0.2
2021	25	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	217	192	52	8	0	14	14	56	9	2	1	271	349	531	880	260	306	26	6	382	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	426	401	92	16	3	14	19	126	2	1	1	229	268	389	657	160	294	30	4	288	83	-9	-0	-7	-8	+9	-1.5
2023	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	96	91	22	3	0	2	5	33	0	1	0	242	281	341	622	99	357	34	5	280	75	-3	+0	+2	+0	+2	0.2
2024	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	457	408	105	26	1	16	36	99	11	10	1	257	334	444	778	186	302	22	8	345	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	283	258	75	21	3	13	24	66	0	2	2	291	351	547	898	256	344	23	8	389	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	505	443	110	16	0	25	45	112	9	4	4	248	330	454	784	205	271	22	9	343	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1186	1106	263	41	7	42	64	378	9	8	4	238	285	401	686	164	319	32	5	303	91	-13	+0	-8	-17	+26	-1.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	150	140	26	8	2	1	9	55	1	5	3	186	240	293	533	107	293	37	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	471	445	76	20	1	12	19	189	4	8	5	171	212	301	513	130	260	40	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	27	26	3	0	0	0	1	10	0	1	0	115	148	115	264		214	37	4	140	-19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	312	287	58	9	2	6	14	96	10	3	1	202	264	310	574	108	278	31	4	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	274	256	56	15	0	11	12	70	3	1	0	219	262	406	668	188	248	26	4	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	250	230	56	13	1	14	12	84	7	1	0	243	301	491	793	248	311	34	5	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	34	33	7	2	0	1	1	14	0	0	0	212	235	364	599	152	323	41	3	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	139	126	33	6	0	4	9	44	4	3	1	262	331	405	736	143	357	32	6	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	382	349	86	9	1	18	29	127	4	2	1	246	312	433	744	186	347	33	8	333	112	+5	+0	+0	-8	+8	0.6
2019	23	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	79	72	17	4	0	6	6	25	0	0	0	236	295	542	837	306	250	32	8	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	158	146	30	4	2	5	8	50	2	3	0	205	256	363	619	158	280	32	5	278	74	-5	+1	-4	-3	+3	-0.8
2021	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	124	121	30	7	1	3	1	42	1	1	2	248	260	397	657	149	351	34	1	288	81	-3	-1	+2	+1	+3	0.2
2021	25	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	217	197	40	6	0	9	9	70	9	2	1	203	270	371	640	168	257	32	4	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	426	402	92	15	3	15	18	126	2	1	1	229	265	393	658	164	294	30	4	290	83	-9	-0	-7	-8	+9	-1.5
2023	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	96	91	22	3	0	2	5	33	0	1	0	242	281	341	622	99	357	34	5	279	75	-3	+0	+2	+0	+2	0.2
2024	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	457	422	87	21	1	11	22	120	11	10	1	206	264	339	603	133	254	26	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	283	267	64	17	2	9	15	78	0	2	2	240	280	419	700	180	304	28	5	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	505	458	93	13	0	17	30	134	9	4	4	203	266	343	608	140	234	27	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	150	140	26	8	2	1	9	55	1	5	3	186	240	293	533	107	298	37	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	—	150	134	36	12	3	1	15	38	1	5	3	269	347	425	772	157	368	25	10	344	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	471	445	76	20	1	12	19	189	4	8	5	171	212	301	513	130	261	40	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A RAW	Greenville Drive	—	471	435	97	29	1	16	29	144	4	8	5	223	278	405	682	182	293	31	6	300	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	339	313	61	9	2	6	15	107	10	4	1	195	254	294	548	99	274	32	4	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	339	304	72	11	3	8	24	81	10	4	1	237	314	372	685	135	296	24	7	310	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	628	580	134	33	2	30	29	185	13	2	0	231	283	450	733	219	280	29	5	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	628	563	157	41	3	35	46	133	13	2	0	279	347	549	896	270	304	21	7	386	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	173	159	39	8	0	5	10	58	4	3	1	245	306	390	696	145	354	34	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	173	155	46	10	0	8	14	47	4	3	1	297	370	516	886	219	380	27	8	390	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	461	421	103	13	1	24	35	152	4	2	1	245	309	451	760	207	321	33	8	335	113	+7	+0	+0	-8	+10	0.9
2019	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	461	417	106	14	1	25	39	148	4	2	1	254	324	472	796	218	331	32	8	350	113	+7	+0	+0	-8	+10	0.9
2020	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	158	146	30	4	2	5	8	50	2	3	0	205	256	363	619	158	269	32	5	278	74	-5	+1	-4	-3	+3	-0.8
2020	24	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	158	146	31	5	2	5	8	50	2	3	0	212	263	377	640	164	280	32	5	280	74	-5	+1	-4	-3	+3	-0.8
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	341	318	71	13	1	12	10	112	10	3	3	223	269	384	653	160	299	33	3	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	341	313	82	15	1	17	15	98	10	3	3	262	317	479	796	217	323	29	4	347	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	426	402	92	15	3	15	18	126	2	1	1	229	265	393	658	164	291	30	4	290	83	-9	-0	-7	-8	+9	-1.5
2022	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	426	401	92	16	3	14	19	126	2	1	1	229	268	389	657	160	294	30	4	288	83	-9	-0	-7	-8	+9	-1.5
2023	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	96	91	22	3	0	2	5	33	0	1	0	242	281	341	622	99	357	34	5	279	75	-3	+0	+2	+0	+2	0.2
2023	27	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	96	91	22	3	0	2	5	33	0	1	0	242	281	341	622	99	357	34	5	280	75	-3	+0	+2	+0	+2	0.2
2024	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	457	422	87	21	1	11	22	120	11	10	1	206	264	339	603	133	259	26	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	457	408	105	26	1	16	36	99	11	10	1	257	334	444	778	186	302	22	8	345	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	283	267	64	17	2	9	15	78	0	2	2	240	280	419	700	180	304	28	5	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	—	283	258	75	21	3	13	24	66	0	2	2	291	351	547	898	256	344	23	8	389	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	505	458	93	13	0	17	30	134	9	4	4	203	266	343	608	140	241	27	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	505	443	110	16	0	25	45	112	9	4	4	248	330	454	784	205	271	22	9	343	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	150	139	26	8	2	1	9	55	1	5	3	187	240	295	535	108	293	37	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	471	445	76	20	1	12	19	189	4	8	5	171	212	301	513	130	260	40	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	339	311	61	9	2	6	15	107	10	4	1	196	254	296	550	100	273	32	4	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	628	581	134	33	2	30	29	185	13	2	0	231	283	449	732	219	278	29	5	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	173	157	39	8	0	5	10	58	4	3	1	248	306	395	701	146	350	34	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	461	419	103	13	1	24	35	152	4	2	1	246	309	453	762	208	330	33	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	158	147	30	4	2	5	8	50	2	3	0	204	256	361	617	156	280	32	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	341	318	71	13	1	12	10	112	10	3	3	223	269	384	653	160	291	33	3	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	426	403	92	15	3	15	18	126	2	1	1	228	265	392	657	164	294	30	4	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	96	91	22	3	0	2	5	33	0	1	0	242	281	341	622	99	357	34	5	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	457	421	87	21	1	11	22	120	11	10	1	207	264	340	603	133	254	26	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	283	266	64	17	2	9	15	78	0	2	2	241	280	421	701	180	304	28	5	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	505	461	93	13	0	17	30	134	9	4	4	202	266	341	606	139	234	27	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	457	421	87	21	1	11	22	120	11	10	1	207	264	340	603	133	254	26	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	283	266	64	17	2	9	15	78	0	2	2	241	280	421	701	180	304	28	5	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	505	461	93	13	0	17	30	134	9	4	4	202	266	341	606	139	234	27	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CIN	10%	380	350	84	16	1	12	22	99	5	4	2	241	295	398	693	157	298	26	6	307	94	-3	+0	+1	-7	+8	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	CIN	10%	24	23	5	1	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	244	298	409	706	165	299	25	4	312	94	-0	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CIN	33%	250	231	55	10	1	8	14	66	3	1	1	235	288	384	672	150	293	26	6	298	88	-4	-0	-3	-4	+5	-0.6
2028	32	MLB CTX	CIN	33%	82	76	18	3	0	3	5	22	1	0	0	237	290	394	685	157	294	27	6	303	88	-1	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1268	1182	281	44	7	45	69	400	10	8	4	238	285	401	687	163	317	32	5	303	77	-14	+0	-9	-19	+27	-1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	606	145	23	4	23	35	205	5	4	2	239	286	404	691	165	319	32	5	303	77	-7	+0	-4	-10	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4976	4612	1006	197	19	165	253	1527	76	51	24	218	270	376	647	158	285	31	5	282	77	-18	-0	-10	-26	+36	-1.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	602	132	26	2	22	33	199	10	7	3	219	271	379	650	159	286	31	5	282	77	-7	-0	-4	-10	+14	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 505 PAwOBA .339 → .265 (−74)K% 22.2% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.18%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	26.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.91%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.91%
HBP% /PA	1.78%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.61%
Singles /BIP	20.85%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.010	×0.962	18.83%
Doubles /BIP	4.83%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.010	×0.962	3.90%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.010	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.55%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	5.09%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .339 → .265; ISO .205 → .144; BABIP .271 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 283 PAwOBA .379 → .302 (−77)K% 23.3% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.32%	÷1.015	×1.200	—	—	27.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.48%	÷1.083	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.25%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.79%	÷0.951	×0.930	×0.995	×0.972	18.72%
Doubles /BIP	10.94%	÷0.969	×0.830	×0.995	×0.972	9.07%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.995	×0.972	1.28%
Home runs /BIP	6.77%	÷0.956	×0.700	—	×0.972	4.82%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 90, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 103, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .379 → .302; ISO .256 → .192; BABIP .344 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 457 PAwOBA .335 → .261 (−73)K% 21.7% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.66%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	26.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.22%	÷1.025	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.77%
HBP% /PA	2.41%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	2.22%
Singles /BIP	20.06%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.988	×0.982	17.53%
Doubles /BIP	8.41%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.988	×0.982	6.82%
Triples /BIP	0.32%	÷1.049	×0.970	×0.988	×0.982	0.29%
Home runs /BIP	5.18%	÷1.016	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.50%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 110, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .335 → .261; ISO .186 → .134; BABIP .302 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 217 PAwOBA .375 → .278 (−96)K% 25.8% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.81%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	32.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.45%	÷1.100	×0.690	—	×1.018	4.12%
HBP% /PA	4.15%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	3.97%
Singles /BIP	22.06%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	19.62%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.986	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	4.79%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.914	×0.920	×0.950	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.29%	÷1.096	×0.700	—	×1.018	6.69%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 83, K 92, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .375 → .278; ISO .260 → .168; BABIP .306 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 79 PAwOBA .393 → .341 (−52)K% 26.6% → 31.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.58%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	31.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.13%	÷0.963	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.61%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷0.953	×0.930	—	×1.048	14.61%
Doubles /BIP	8.16%	÷0.896	×0.830	—	×1.048	7.92%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	14.29%	÷1.038	×0.840	—	×1.048	12.12%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .393 → .341; ISO .357 → .303; BABIP .256 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 139 PAwOBA .386 → .312 (−74)K% 25.2% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.18%	÷0.982	×1.220	—	—	31.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.35%	÷1.051	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.40%
HBP% /PA	2.88%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	2.51%
Singles /BIP	27.59%	÷1.001	×0.970	×0.993	×1.027	27.26%
Doubles /BIP	8.05%	÷1.052	×0.860	×0.993	×1.027	6.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.993	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.90%	÷1.166	×0.780	—	×1.027	4.74%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .386 → .312; ISO .205 → .143; BABIP .383 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 34 PAwOBA .352 → .254 (−97)K% 35.3% → 42.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.29%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	42.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.94%	÷1.082	×0.690	—	×1.050	1.97%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.05%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.050	18.60%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.067	×0.830	—	×1.050	11.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.52%	÷1.342	×0.840	—	×1.050	6.26%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 100, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .352 → .254; ISO .273 → .174; BABIP .368 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 274 PAwOBA .340 → .287 (−53)K% 20.4% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.44%	÷0.974	×1.220	—	—	25.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.57%	÷1.067	×0.700	—	×1.042	4.49%
HBP% /PA	1.09%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.97%
Singles /BIP	15.62%	÷0.984	×0.970	×0.997	×1.042	15.99%
Doubles /BIP	9.38%	÷1.085	×0.860	×0.997	×1.042	7.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.010	×0.950	×0.997	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.29%	÷1.020	×0.780	—	×1.042	5.81%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 117, 3B 102, K 95, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .340 → .287; ISO .242 → .192; BABIP .265 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	3.0	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
/162	664	18	7	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#3Andy Kosco'65-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,102 PA	3.2	2,102	73	5	243*	278*	440*	-22	-12	0.1	0.8
/162	664	23	2	-7.1	-3.6	0.0	pk7: 2
#4Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#5Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.9	1,292	45	9	239	284	403	-21	-12	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	23	4	-11.0	-6.0	-0.1	pk7: -0
#6Carlos Martinez'88-'95 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,586 PA	2.4	1,586	25	10	256*	291*	383*	-18	-15	-2.5	-2.5
/162	664	10	4	-7.4	-6.2	-1.0	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Chavis (OGILVIE)	31	55	60	45	40	239/293/395	156	298	8	2	26%	6%	94	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Hicks 2021 · MLB	31	45→52	53→55	43→50	40	236/278/404	168	304	22	5	30%	6%	90	+0.6	217/257/382	165	292	20	13	32%	5%	77	-0.3	197/238/348	151	267	18	16	33%	4%	59	-0.8
✕Tim Beckham 2021 · MLB	31	46→55	55	39→50	43	238/296/424	186	300	22	5	28%	7%	101	+1.4	249/299/400	151	324	19	7	28%	6%	96	+1.0	255/299/384	129	337	17	4	28%	5%	89	+0.2
✕Eric Haase 2024 · MLB	31	44→42	50→65	48→40	42	227/277/378	151	289	19	6	28%	6%	83	+0.1	224/281/371	147	317	19	5	34%	7%	83	+0.1	213/275/368	155	309	22	1	37%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Welington Castillo 2019 · MLB	32	50→56	52→55	48→30	42	256/303/415	159	317	22	4	26%	6%	101	+1.4	229/290/401	172	290	22	5	28%	7%	93	+0.8	205/266/409	204	245	28	0	29%	6%	88	+0.2
✕James McCann 2020 · MLB	30	51→55	50	43→45	43	253/307/407	154	321	18	4	27%	6%	101	+1.4	246/306/395	149	319	18	5	28%	7%	98	+1.2	243/286/397	153	300	21	1	26%	5%	91	+0.3
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2014 · MLB	30	47→48	50→55	45→50	46	238/294/400	161	283	18	7	23%	7%	94	+0.9	215/283/374	159	261	17	6	24%	8%	85	+0.2	182/261/344	162	214	18	2	24%	9%	70	-0.3
✕John Buck 2011 · MLB	31	50→53	56→60	41→30	41	258/304/453	195	311	24	3	25%	5%	111	+2.1	232/301/396	164	277	21	2	24%	8%	97	+1.1	217/294/368	151	257	20	1	24%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Aledmys Díaz 2022 · MLB	31	49→57	50→55	43→45	46	247/305/403	156	278	17	4	18%	6%	100	+1.3	233/283/370	137	265	15	4	18%	5%	84	+0.1	231/279/365	133	261	15	2	18%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Anthony Recker 2015 · MLB	31	41→48	52→50	42→45	42	216/275/381	165	287	21	5	32%	7%	84	+0.1	204/276/349	145	275	17	5	31%	8%	76	-0.4	193/262/327	134	259	15	2	30%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Hector Luna 2011 · MLB	31	49	51→55	48→50	46	251/306/407	156	287	19	8	20%	6%	101	+1.4	238/286/378	140	274	16	7	19%	6%	86	+0.3	234/278/366	132	267	15	5	18%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Nick Hundley 2016 · MLB	32	52→45	48→55	42→40	43	260/302/402	142	313	15	6	22%	6%	97	+1.1	251/295/414	163	307	18	4	23%	6%	98	+1.2	243/288/414	171	299	19	1	25%	6%	97	+0.6
✕Jose Leon 2008 · AAA	31	49	51→55	46→30	44	251/301/408	157	296	20	4	23%	6%	99	+1.2	238/293/369	131	286	14	6	21%	6%	86	+0.3	228/272/349	121	283	17	0	26%	4%	70	-0.2
✕Michael McKenry 2016 · MLB	31	48→47	50→55	43→40	53	241/325/403	161	293	17	8	23%	10%	107	+1.8	206/298/335	129	283	12	6	29%	11%	82	-0.0	175/275/285	109	248	10	2	31%	11%	60	-0.7
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	46→51	47→50	49→40	43	232/282/367	136	297	14	5	27%	6%	82	-0.0	205/258/332	127	273	15	6	29%	7%	65	-1.2	160/212/265	105	214	15	2	32%	6%	31	-1.5
✕Cameron Rupp 2018 · MLB	29	45→49	54→55	47→30	44	234/296/414	180	303	21	3	30%	8%	99	+1.2	200/270/360	160	289	20	3	36%	8%	77	-0.3	162/236/306	144	234	20	0	39%	8%	50	-1.1
✕Mike Brosseau 2024 · MLB	30	41→51	51→55	47→45	43	215/285/366	151	273	20	6	29%	7%	84	+0.1	207/275/321	114	260	14	7	26%	7%	70	-0.9	192/263/287	95	241	13	5	25%	7%	55	-1.2
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	50→49	47→50	49→45	46	248/306/380	132	316	14	5	26%	7%	94	+0.9	224/280/354	130	280	14	11	25%	7%	78	-0.3	192/244/301	110	234	13	13	24%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Austin Romine 2021 · MLB	32	50→54	48→50	45	40	252/290/391	139	319	16	5	26%	5%	91	+0.6	221/261/335	114	301	13	5	30%	5%	67	-1.1	173/207/252	78	235	10	0	31%	4%	26	-1.3
✕Elias Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	44→54	50	42→45	48	227/286/381	154	256	18	2	20%	7%	87	+0.4	245/298/378	133	297	14	2	22%	7%	91	+0.6	245/298/371	126	300	14	1	22%	6%	90	+0.4
✕Eliezer Alfonzo 2010 · MLB	31	44→54	50→55	46→40	34	231/259/378	147	295	19	4	29%	3%	76	-0.4	229/262/397	168	280	23	5	27%	3%	82	+0.0	259/286/467	208	286	32	2	22%	2%	107	+0.7

Michael Chavis

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps