Michael Chavis — OGILVIE

Michael Chavis2B Louisville Bats

Age 30 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AAA HR +6% Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION292 act + 194 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†106

AVG/OBP/SLG.257 / .311 / .442

PA194

HR8

SB6

K%27

BB%6

BABIP318

ISO185

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT55

Whiff%

1017.1%

xwOBA

100.261

POWER60

Barrel%

346.2

Avg EV

1186.1

Bat Spd

6372.7

EYE40

Chase%

1044.3%

SPEED45

Sprint

8128.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$0.0M	-$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	150	140	26	8	2	1	9	55	1	5	3	186	240	293	533	107	298	37	6	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	150	134	36	12	3	1	15	38	1	5	3	269	347	425	772	157	368	25	10	344	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Greenville Drive	—	471	445	76	19	1	12	19	186	4	8	5	171	212	299	510	128	258	39	4	220	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Greenville Drive	—	471	435	97	29	1	16	29	144	4	8	5	223	278	405	682	182	293	31	6	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	2 teams	—	339	313	63	10	2	6	15	104	10	4	1	201	260	304	564	102	279	31	4	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	2 teams	—	339	304	72	11	3	8	24	81	10	4	1	237	314	372	685	135	296	24	7	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	3 teams	—	628	583	128	30	2	32	26	197	13	2	0	220	268	443	711	223	267	31	4	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	3 teams	—	628	563	157	41	3	35	46	133	13	2	0	279	347	549	896	270	304	21	7	386	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	2 teams	—	173	160	36	7	0	5	9	61	4	3	1	225	283	362	646	137	330	35	5	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	2 teams	—	173	155	46	10	0	8	14	47	4	3	1	297	370	516	886	219	380	27	8	390	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB	2 teams	—	461	419	101	13	1	23	37	152	4	2	1	241	309	442	750	200	318	33	8	327	108	+4	+0	+0	-8	+13	1.0
2019	23	MLB	2 teams	—	461	417	106	14	1	25	39	148	4	2	1	254	324	472	796	218	331	32	8	350	126	+14	+0	+0	-8	+13	1.9
2020	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	158	146	29	4	2	5	8	50	2	3	0	199	250	356	606	158	258	32	5	273	67	-6	+1	-4	-3	+4	-0.8
2020	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	158	146	31	5	2	5	8	50	2	3	0	212	263	377	640	164	280	32	5	280	73	-5	+1	-4	-3	+4	-0.7
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	341	319	70	13	1	12	9	115	10	3	3	219	263	379	643	160	297	34	3	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	341	313	82	15	1	17	15	98	10	3	3	262	317	479	796	217	323	29	4	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	426	401	93	16	3	14	19	126	2	1	1	232	270	392	662	160	298	30	4	286	77	-11	-0	-7	-8	+12	-1.5
2022	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	426	401	92	16	3	14	19	126	2	1	1	229	268	389	657	160	294	30	4	288	78	-10	-0	-7	-8	+12	-1.4
2023	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	96	91	22	3	0	2	5	33	0	1	0	242	281	341	622	99	357	34	5	277	70	-3	+0	+2	+0	+3	0.2
2023	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	96	91	22	3	0	2	5	33	0	1	0	242	281	341	622	99	357	34	5	280	73	-3	+0	+2	+0	+3	0.2
2024	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	457	423	88	21	1	13	21	121	11	10	1	208	264	355	618	147	258	26	5	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	457	408	105	26	1	16	36	99	11	10	1	257	334	444	778	186	302	22	8	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	283	267	66	17	2	11	15	83	0	2	2	247	287	449	737	202	316	29	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	283	258	75	21	3	13	24	66	0	2	2	291	351	547	898	256	344	23	8	389	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	30	AAA	CIN	—	292	265	57	8	0	13	17	78	5	2	3	215	275	392	668	177	246	27	6	291	81	-6	-1	+0	-5	+8	-0.4
YTD	30	AAA	CIN	—	292	257	63	9	0	16	25	65	5	2	3	245	324	467	791	222	260	22	9	344	121	+7	-1	+0	-5	+8	0.9
ROS	30	AAA	CIN	10%	194	178	46	7	1	8	11	52	3	6	2	257	311	442	754	185	310	27	6	324	106	+1	+0	+1	-3	+6	0.4
ROS	30	MLB	CIN	10%	19	18	5	1	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	278	316	500	816	222	313	26	5	317	101	+0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
FULL	30	AAA	CIN	—	311	283	62	9	0	14	18	83	5	3	3	219	278	399	677	180	251	27	6	293	82	-6	-1	+0	-6	+9	-0.4
TOT	30	AAA	CIN	—	486	443	103	15	1	21	28	130	8	8	5	232	290	412	702	180	275	27	6	304	91	-5	-0	+1	-9	+14	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	CIN	36%	318	293	74	11	2	12	18	86	4	8	2	253	305	427	731	174	316	27	6	325	107	+3	+1	-2	-6	+9	0.5
2028	32	MLB	CIN	51%	299	276	69	10	2	11	17	82	4	6	2	250	303	420	723	170	312	27	6	319	102	+1	+0	-3	-5	+8	0.2
2029	33	MLB	CIN	60%	269	249	61	9	1	10	15	75	3	4	1	245	296	410	706	165	307	28	6	311	96	-1	+0	-3	-5	+8	-0.1
2030	34	MLB	CIN	55%	226	209	50	7	1	8	12	65	3	3	1	239	290	397	687	158	300	29	5	301	89	-3	+0	-4	-4	+6	-0.5
2031	35	MLB	CIN	51%	176	163	38	5	1	6	9	52	2	1	0	233	282	387	668	153	292	30	5	290	80	-4	+0	-5	-3	+5	-0.7
2027	31	MLB	CIN	36%	114	105	28	4	1	5	6	31	2	3	1	267	319	467	785	200	319	27	5	319	103	+0	+0	-1	-2	+3	0.1
2028	32	MLB	CIN	51%	152	141	35	5	1	6	8	42	2	3	1	248	298	426	724	177	315	28	5	313	98	-0	+0	-1	-3	+4	0.0
2029	33	MLB	CIN	60%	160	148	36	5	1	6	9	45	2	3	1	243	296	412	708	169	310	28	6	305	92	-1	+0	-2	-3	+5	-0.2
2030	34	MLB	CIN	55%	125	115	29	4	1	5	7	36	2	1	0	252	306	435	741	183	303	29	6	296	84	-2	+0	-2	-2	+4	-0.3
2031	35	MLB	CIN	51%	89	83	18	2	0	3	5	26	1	1	0	217	270	349	619	133	295	29	6	284	76	-2	+0	-3	-2	+3	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1845	1716	414	62	11	68	100	563	18	20	7	241	290	409	699	168	316	31	5	304	91	-20	+1	-17	-29	+52	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	605	146	22	4	24	35	198	6	7	2	241	289	410	699	169	315	30	5	304	91	-7	+1	-6	-10	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	5465	5075	1136	210	25	191	274	1695	80	72	26	224	274	388	662	164	294	31	5	288	78	-134	+4	-24	-88	+155	-9.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	604	135	25	3	23	33	202	10	9	3	224	276	389	665	166	293	31	5	288	78	-16	+1	-3	-10	+18	-1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	150	134	36	12	3	1	15	38	1	5	3	269	347	425	772	157	368	25	10	344	122	+4	-0	—	—	+4	0.8
2015	19	A	Greenville Drive	—	471	435	97	29	1	16	29	144	4	8	5	223	278	405	682	182	293	31	6	300	88	-6	-0	—	—	+13	0.7
2016	20	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	27	25	4	0	0	0	2	7	0	1	0	160	222	160	382		222	26	7	186	0	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2016	20	A	Greenville Drive	—	312	279	68	11	3	8	22	74	10	3	1	244	322	391	712	147	303	24	7	320	103	+1	+0	—	—	+9	1.0
2017	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	274	248	62	18	0	14	20	56	3	1	0	250	314	492	806	242	265	20	7	349	125	+8	+0	—	—	+8	1.6
2017	21	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	250	223	71	17	2	17	19	57	7	1	0	318	390	641	1.031	323	360	23	8	442	196	+27	+0	—	—	+7	3.5
2017	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	104	92	24	6	1	4	7	20	3	0	0	261	333	478	812	217	286	19	7	351	127	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2018	22	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	34	33	9	3	0	2	1	12	0	0	0	273	294	545	840	273	368	35	3	363	136	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2018	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	139	122	37	7	0	6	13	35	4	3	1	303	388	508	897	205	383	25	9	397	162	+10	+0	—	—	+4	1.4
2019	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	382	347	88	10	1	18	31	127	4	2	1	254	322	444	766	190	347	33	8	340	118	+8	+0	+0	-8	+11	1.1
2019	23	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	79	70	18	4	0	7	8	21	0	0	0	257	333	614	948	357	256	27	10	400	164	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2020	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	158	146	31	5	2	5	8	50	2	3	0	212	263	377	640	164	280	32	5	280	73	-5	+1	-4	-3	+4	-0.7
2021	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	124	121	30	7	1	3	1	42	1	1	2	248	260	397	657	149	351	34	1	286	77	-3	-1	+2	+1	+4	0.3
2021	25	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	217	192	52	8	0	14	14	56	9	2	1	271	349	531	880	260	306	26	6	382	151	+12	+0	—	—	+6	1.9
2022	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	426	401	92	16	3	14	19	126	2	1	1	229	268	389	657	160	294	30	4	288	78	-10	-0	-7	-8	+12	-1.4
2023	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	96	91	22	3	0	2	5	33	0	1	0	242	281	341	622	99	357	34	5	280	73	-3	+0	+2	+0	+3	0.2
2024	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	457	408	105	26	1	16	36	99	11	10	1	257	334	444	778	186	302	22	8	345	122	+11	+2	—	—	+13	2.6
2025	29	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	283	258	75	21	3	13	24	66	0	2	2	291	351	547	898	256	344	23	8	389	156	+18	-0	—	—	+8	2.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1186	1106	263	41	7	42	64	378	9	8	4	238	285	401	686	164	319	32	5	303	90	-13	+0	-8	-17	+34	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	1,859	67	20	241	287	407	-19	-19	1.3	1.8
	/162	664	24	7	241	287	407	-7.0	-6.6	0.5	pk7: 2
#2Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	7	1,560	54	2	243	309	416	-15	-16	1.6	1.6
#4John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	/162	664	23	1	243	309	416	-6.5	-6.7	0.7	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Chavis (OGILVIE)	30	55	60	45	40	232/290/412	180	275	21	8	27%	6%	91	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Ian Desmond 2016 · MLB	30	49→59	51→60	51→55	44	247/304/410	162	316	19	16	28%	7%	101	+1.8	248/306/390	142	311	17	18	25%	7%	96	+1.5	241/303/376	135	297	16	20	24%	7%	88	+0.8
✕Hernán Pérez 2021 · MLB	30	46→55	50→55	52→55	43	238/282/393	155	288	19	16	25%	6%	86	+0.8	240/286/377	137	303	16	20	26%	6%	84	+0.6	239/283/364	126	302	16	24	26%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Trevor Story 2023 · MLB	30	43→49	53→60	55	48	226/300/405	179	279	21	20	27%	9%	98	+1.6	233/294/394	161	303	19	24	28%	7%	92	+1.2	241/292/393	153	309	20	30	28%	6%	88	+0.5
✕Rafael Ortega 2022 · MLB	31	49→54	53→55	49→55	49	254/317/429	176	298	21	17	23%	8%	111	+2.5	232/319/365	133	283	14	20	22%	11%	95	+1.4	217/315/340	123	267	13	24	22%	12%	85	+0.4
✕Josh Fields 2012 · MLB	29	50→56	52→55	51→50	44	255/310/428	173	317	20	12	26%	7%	108	+2.3	239/287/355	116	334	11	11	30%	6%	78	+0.2	250/287/350	100	340	7	9	28%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Justin Maxwell 2014 · MLB	30	45→44	55→60	52→60	45	231/303/423	192	311	23	15	32%	8%	104	+2.0	214/278/348	134	312	15	9	34%	7%	73	-0.1	199/263/308	108	295	13	6	35%	6%	54	-0.6
✕Tyler Greene 2013 · MLB	29	48→53	50	56→55	43	238/303/396	159	315	17	24	29%	7%	97	+1.5	224/272/345	121	325	12	14	33%	5%	70	-0.3	219/262/322	103	328	9	10	35%	4%	57	-0.9
✕Mark Little 2002 · MLB	30	55	52→55	51→55	41	277/331/446	169	332	19	19	22%	5%	121	+3.2	239/326/360	121	303	10	12	23%	8%	98	+1.6	221/315/350	129	303	11	16	28%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Javier Báez 2023 · MLB	30	48→58	55→65	51→55	39	250/296/436	186	314	24	13	28%	5%	105	+2.1	235/277/374	139	290	16	12	24%	4%	79	+0.3	232/270/357	126	286	14	12	24%	4%	70	-0.2
●Brandon Dixon 2022 · MLB	30	49	53→65	51→55	39	245/295/421	175	328	21	9	31%	6%	99	+1.7	248/311/478	230	334	32	14	34%	7%	122	+3.3	231/295/453	222	318	32	14	36%	7%	108	+1.1
✕Jonathan Villar 2022 · MLB	31	50→60	50	53→65	49	250/319/403	153	314	18	24	26%	9%	105	+2.1	236/293/378	142	305	15	19	26%	7%	87	+0.8	226/270/352	127	298	11	25	27%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Brian Goodwin 2021 · MLB	30	48→53	55→60	51→50	47	244/315/438	194	319	22	12	30%	9%	113	+2.6	228/306/381	153	292	17	9	26%	10%	94	+1.3	209/294/339	131	263	16	4	26%	11%	76	+0.1
✕Danny Santana 2021 · MLB	30	48→58	57→60	54→55	40	247/295/449	202	320	24	20	31%	6%	108	+2.3	233/295/413	180	285	22	16	26%	8%	98	+1.6	215/279/422	208	234	29	22	24%	8%	92	+0.4
✕Hiram Bocachica 2007 · MLB	31	49	54→55	54→55	49	252/326/430	178	295	22	21	23%	8%	115	+2.8	238/321/403	165	270	19	19	19%	9%	106	+2.2	214/303/391	177	236	21	21	20%	9%	94	+0.6
✕Mikie Mahtook 2021 · MLB	31	41→51	58→60	48→50	44	225/290/421	196	272	27	13	28%	7%	98	+1.6	214/266/379	165	269	22	11	29%	5%	77	+0.1	191/241/350	159	231	23	10	29%	5%	56	-0.9
✕Chris Owings 2022 · MLB	30	46→56	50	51→55	43	228/293/390	162	320	17	14	33%	8%	91	+1.1	198/269/331	133	281	15	11	33%	8%	66	-0.6	184/261/307	123	264	15	11	35%	8%	53	-0.8
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2014 · MLB	30	46→48	51→55	45→50	47	237/295/399	163	280	18	7	23%	7%	94	+1.3	215/284/374	159	260	18	6	24%	8%	83	+0.6	182/261/345	163	213	18	2	24%	9%	65	-0.2
✕John Hicks 2019 · MLB	29	51→50	50→60	43→50	41	256/300/409	153	326	18	6	27%	6%	98	+1.6	243/282/426	183	316	24	6	30%	5%	95	+1.4	230/264/432	202	298	27	9	33%	4%	87	+0.5
✕Michael McKenry 2015 · MLB	30	49→47	51→55	41→40	50	248/317/406	158	293	19	6	22%	8%	105	+2.1	212/305/350	138	280	14	6	27%	11%	86	+0.8	174/283/294	120	243	11	3	30%	12%	61	-0.4
●Adolis García 2023 · MLB	30	46→48	57→65	53→50	41	244/294/445	201	305	25	19	29%	6%	106	+2.2	234/298/437	203	284	27	13	27%	8%	106	+2.2	226/292/422	196	270	27	11	27%	8%	97	+1.6