Michael Chavis — OGILVIE

Michael Chavis2B Louisville Bats

Age 30 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AAA HR +9%K -4% Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.4 · 2026

wRC+†104

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .286 / .400

PA333

HR11

K%28

BB%6

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

60→60

SPD

45→45

EYE

40→40

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+0.4	$2M	-$5M
Totals		$7M		$2M	-$5M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	150	140	26	8	2	1	9	55	1	5	3	.186	.240	.293	.533	.107	.298	37	6	.228	33	-11	-0	+0	-3	+4	-1.0
2015	19	A	Greenville Drive	471	447	74	19	1	13	17	185	4	8	5	.166	.203	.300	.503	.134	.244	39	4	.216	24	-41	-0	+0	-8	+13	-3.7
2016	20	A	2 teams	339	314	60	9	2	7	14	104	10	4	1	.191	.249	.299	.548	.108	.260	31	4	.236	39	-23	+0	+0	-6	+10	-2.0
2017	21	AA	3 teams	628	581	132	32	2	31	28	188	13	2	0	.227	.278	.449	.727	.222	.274	30	4	.308	94	-4	+0	+0	-11	+18	0.3
2018	22	AA	2 teams	173	160	39	8	0	6	9	60	4	3	1	.244	.301	.406	.707	.163	.351	35	5	.299	87	-3	+0	+0	-3	+5	-0.1
2019	23	MLB	2 teams	461	419	104	12	1	24	37	152	4	2	1	.248	.315	.453	.769	.205	.328	33	8	.330	111	+6	+0	+0	-8	+13	1.1
2020	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	158	146	31	4	3	5	8	50	2	3	0	.212	.263	.384	.646	.171	.280	32	5	.289	80	-4	+1	-4	-3	+4	-0.6
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	341	318	71	13	1	13	10	113	10	3	3	.223	.269	.393	.662	.170	.297	33	3	.284	75	-9	-1	+2	+1	+10	0.3
2022	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	426	401	93	16	3	15	19	126	2	1	1	.232	.270	.399	.669	.167	.295	30	4	.289	79	-10	-0	-7	-8	+12	-1.3
2023	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	96	91	22	3	0	2	5	33	0	1	0	.242	.281	.341	.622	.099	.357	34	5	.276	69	-3	+0	+2	+0	+3	0.2
2024	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	457	422	89	21	1	13	22	120	11	10	1	.211	.268	.358	.626	.147	.261	26	5	.275	69	-16	+2	+0	-8	+13	-1.0
2025	29	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	283	266	63	17	2	10	16	84	0	2	2	.237	.280	.429	.709	.192	.306	30	6	.302	89	-3	-0	+0	-5	+8	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	30	AAA	Louisville Bats	70	65	17	2	0	6	4	19	0	0	0	.262	.304	.569	.874	.308	.268	27	6	.353	128	+2	+0	+0	-1	+2	0.3
ROS	30	MLB	CIN	263	243	58	12	1	10	15	73	3	4	1	.239	.291	.420	.711	.181	.296	28	6	.313	98	-1	+0	-2	-5	+7	0.1
TOT	30	MLB	CIN	333	308	75	14	1	16	19	92	3	4	1	.244	.294	.451	.745	.208	.292	28	6	.321	104	+1	+0	-2	-6	+9	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	31	MLB 20%	CIN	318	293	70	14	1	13	19	77	3	3	0	.239	.292	.427	.719	.188	.279	24	6	.316	100	-0	+1	-5	-6	+9	-0.1
2028	32	MLB 33%	CIN	299	276	65	13	1	12	18	74	3	1	0	.236	.290	.420	.710	.185	.278	25	6	.311	96	-1	+0	-5	-5	+8	-0.3
2029	33	MLB 43%	CIN	269	249	58	12	1	10	16	68	2	0	0	.233	.285	.410	.694	.177	.276	25	6	.305	91	-3	+0	-6	-5	+8	-0.6
2030	34	MLB 52%	CIN	226	209	47	9	1	8	13	59	2	0	0	.225	.277	.392	.669	.167	.274	26	6	.298	86	-4	+0	-6	-4	+6	-0.8
2031	35	MLB 64%	CIN	176	162	36	7	1	6	10	48	2	0	0	.222	.276	.389	.665	.167	.272	27	6	.289	80	-4	+0	-7	-3	+5	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5534	5137	1138	229	24	199	285	1669	76	52	19	.222	.273	.392	.664	.170	.285	30	5	.288	78	-135	+3	-38	-89	+157	-10.5
/ 162G	—			650	603	134	27	3	23	33	196	9	6	2	.222	.272	.391	.664	.169	.287	30	5	.288	78	-16	+0	-4	-11	+18	-1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	150	134	36	12	3	1	15	38	1	5	3	.269	.347	.425	.772	.157	.368	25	10	.344	122	+4	-0	—	—	+4	0.8
2015	19	A	Greenville Drive	471	435	97	29	1	16	29	144	4	8	5	.223	.278	.405	.682	.182	.293	31	6	.300	88	-6	-0	—	—	+13	0.7
2016	20	A+	Salem Red Sox	27	25	4	0	0	0	2	7	0	1	0	.160	.222	.160	.382	.000	.222	26	7	.186	0	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2016	20	A	Greenville Drive	312	279	68	11	3	8	22	74	10	3	1	.244	.322	.391	.712	.147	.303	24	7	.320	103	+1	+0	—	—	+9	1.0
2017	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	274	248	62	18	0	14	20	56	3	1	0	.250	.314	.492	.806	.242	.265	20	7	.349	125	+8	+0	—	—	+8	1.6
2017	21	A+	Salem Red Sox	250	223	71	17	2	17	19	57	7	1	0	.318	.390	.641	1.031	.323	.360	23	8	.442	196	+27	+0	—	—	+7	3.5
2017	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	104	92	24	6	1	4	7	20	3	0	0	.261	.333	.478	.812	.217	.286	19	7	.351	127	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2018	22	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	34	33	9	3	0	2	1	12	0	0	0	.273	.294	.545	.840	.273	.368	35	3	.363	136	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2018	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	139	122	37	7	0	6	13	35	4	3	1	.303	.388	.508	.897	.205	.383	25	9	.397	162	+10	+0	—	—	+4	1.4
2019	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	382	347	88	10	1	18	31	127	4	2	1	.254	.322	.444	.766	.190	.347	33	8	.340	118	+8	+0	+0	-8	+11	1.1
2019	23	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	79	70	18	4	0	7	8	21	0	0	0	.257	.333	.614	.948	.357	.256	27	10	.400	164	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2020	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	158	146	31	5	2	5	8	50	2	3	0	.212	.263	.377	.640	.164	.280	32	5	.280	73	-5	+1	-4	-3	+4	-0.7
2021	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	124	121	30	7	1	3	1	42	1	1	2	.248	.260	.397	.657	.149	.351	34	1	.286	77	-3	-1	+2	+1	+4	0.3
2021	25	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	217	192	52	8	0	14	14	56	9	2	1	.271	.349	.531	.880	.260	.306	26	6	.382	151	+12	+0	—	—	+6	1.9
2022	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	426	401	92	16	3	14	19	126	2	1	1	.229	.268	.389	.657	.160	.294	30	4	.288	78	-10	-0	-7	-8	+12	-1.4
2023	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	96	91	22	3	0	2	5	33	0	1	0	.242	.281	.341	.622	.099	.357	34	5	.280	73	-3	+0	+2	+0	+3	0.2
2024	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	457	408	105	26	1	16	36	99	11	10	1	.257	.334	.444	.778	.186	.302	22	8	.345	122	+11	+2	—	—	+13	2.6
2025	29	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	283	258	75	21	3	13	24	66	0	2	2	.291	.351	.547	.898	.256	.344	23	8	.389	156	+18	-0	—	—	+8	2.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1186	1106	263	41	7	42	64	378	9	8	4	.238	.285	.401	.686	.164	.319	32	5	.303	90	-13	+0	-8	-17	+34	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Chavis (OGILVIE)	30	55	60	45	40	.235/.286/.400	.164	.301	11	5	28%	6%	92	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2014 · MLB	30	47→48	52→55	46→50	47	.240/.297/.410	.170	.281	20	8	22%	7%	98	+1.6	.216/.285/.374	.158	.262	17	6	24%	8%	84	+0.6	.180/.259/.335	.155	.212	17	2	24%	9%	64	-0.2
✕Josh Fields 2012 · MLB	29	50→56	52→55	48→50	45	.254/.311/.423	.168	.312	20	11	25%	7%	107	+2.2	.248/.295/.371	.123	.339	11	11	28%	6%	86	+0.8	.248/.293/.356	.107	.343	9	9	29%	6%	79	+0.2
✕John Hicks 2019 · MLB	29	50→51	49→60	44→50	41	.252/.295/.397	.145	.322	17	6	27%	5%	93	+1.3	.230/.270/.397	.167	.302	22	6	31%	5%	83	+0.6	.215/.250/.403	.188	.281	26	9	34%	4%	73	-0.1
✕Anthony Recker 2014 · MLB	30	43→48	51→50	43→45	47	.220/.295/.378	.157	.286	19	7	29%	9%	89	+0.9	.211/.280/.369	.158	.286	20	6	32%	8%	80	+0.4	.200/.280/.351	.151	.266	19	3	31%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Chad Pinder 2022 · MLB	30	48→53	53→55	45	44	.245/.299/.419	.175	.298	20	4	25%	7%	102	+1.8	.240/.281/.397	.157	.314	19	5	29%	5%	88	+0.9	.239/.267/.392	.154	.317	21	3	31%	4%	79	+0.2
✕Mike Wilson 2013 · MLB	30	45→54	52→60	47→50	46	.231/.301/.398	.168	.295	21	9	29%	8%	97	+1.5	.224/.284/.376	.152	.311	19	7	33%	7%	84	+0.6	.213/.273/.361	.148	.300	20	4	35%	6%	72	-0.1
●Michael Wing 2019 · AAA	30	53	51→55	46→40	43	.269/.314/.426	.157	.320	19	9	22%	6%	109	+2.4	.265/.312/.461	.196	.331	24	8	27%	6%	118	+3.0	.273/.321/.486	.213	.338	27	5	27%	6%	128	+2.8
●Brandon Dixon 2022 · MLB	30	46→44	52→60	51→55	38	.234/.282/.403	.169	.314	21	9	32%	6%	89	+1.0	.250/.312/.487	.237	.329	33	14	33%	7%	125	+3.5	.231/.293/.457	.226	.311	33	14	36%	7%	109	+1.1
✕Tim Beckham 2019 · MLB	29	50→57	50→55	42→50	43	.250/.303/.407	.157	.323	18	5	28%	7%	99	+1.7	.239/.293/.425	.186	.304	23	5	28%	7%	100	+1.7	.253/.303/.443	.190	.327	25	3	30%	6%	107	+0.8
✕Mike Brosseau 2023 · MLB	29	46→56	51→55	52→45	46	.231/.315/.389	.158	.304	20	8	30%	9%	101	+1.8	.214/.285/.353	.139	.270	19	6	27%	7%	79	+0.3	.193/.261/.311	.118	.238	17	5	26%	6%	55	-0.7
✕David Bote 2023 · MLB	30	42→48	48→55	49→45	44	.217/.287/.362	.145	.277	16	7	27%	7%	82	+0.5	.229/.296/.386	.157	.289	17	8	26%	7%	92	+1.2	.225/.296/.391	.167	.277	18	6	25%	8%	90	+0.5
✕Brock Peterson 2014 · MLB	30	44→52	52→55	43→40	41	.232/.284/.397	.166	.295	21	4	29%	6%	89	+1.0	.222/.280/.360	.138	.304	16	3	31%	7%	78	+0.2	.209/.272/.334	.125	.291	14	1	32%	7%	66	-0.5
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	51→50	47→50	49→45	46	.251/.310/.385	.134	.318	15	5	25%	8%	96	+1.5	.225/.283/.360	.135	.285	15	11	26%	7%	79	+0.3	.189/.246/.307	.118	.234	15	13	26%	7%	45	-0.9
✕Donnie Murphy 2014 · MLB	31	41	54→60	47→45	42	.219/.284/.396	.177	.269	22	7	28%	6%	89	+1.0	.205/.270/.344	.139	.260	17	6	27%	6%	69	-0.4	.170/.239/.268	.098	.215	12	0	27%	7%	35	-0.9
✕Andrew Brown 2014 · MLB	29	45→46	54→55	45→40	44	.234/.297/.416	.182	.305	22	5	30%	8%	99	+1.7	.231/.295/.407	.176	.289	21	5	27%	8%	97	+1.5	.218/.287/.392	.174	.264	23	2	27%	8%	86	+0.6
✕John Buck 2011 · MLB	31	49→53	53→55	40→30	43	.249/.301/.425	.176	.305	20	3	25%	6%	103	+1.9	.230/.305/.388	.158	.277	20	2	24%	9%	95	+1.4	.213/.300/.359	.146	.253	20	1	24%	10%	76	+0.0
✕Michael Restovich 2009 · MLB	30	44→49	54→55	46→30	39	.230/.280/.408	.178	.302	22	5	32%	6%	90	+1.0	.234/.283/.386	.152	.308	17	3	28%	6%	85	+0.7	.226/.278/.368	.142	.302	15	0	29%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Mario Lisson 2014 · AAA	30	44→49	50→55	49→55	43	.226/.289/.381	.155	.286	18	15	27%	6%	87	+0.8	.235/.300/.382	.147	.299	18	10	27%	7%	92	+1.2	.233/.305/.376	.142	.304	18	8	28%	8%	91	+0.8
✕Michael McKenry 2014 · MLB	29	45→46	50→55	44→40	48	.231/.299/.387	.156	.280	18	4	24%	8%	92	+1.2	.243/.325/.408	.165	.299	18	6	24%	10%	109	+2.4	.231/.329/.388	.157	.295	17	5	26%	12%	101	+0.7
✕Alex Gonzalez 2003 · MLB	30	49→50	49→55	45	47	.247/.306/.401	.154	.293	17	9	22%	7%	98	+1.6	.238/.296/.400	.162	.280	18	6	21%	7%	95	+1.4	.235/.293/.392	.157	.273	17	3	20%	7%	89	+0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)