Will Middlebrooks
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | AAASD | 164 | .255/.292/.379 | 4 | 1 | 40 | — | .199/.224/.295 | |
| 2015 | 26 | MLBSD | 270 | .212/.244/.361 | 9 | 2 | 66 | -0.5 | ||
| 2016 | 27 | AAAColorado Spri… | 264 | .282/.313/.508 | 10 | 1 | 50 | — | .198/.220/.353 | |
| 2016 | 27 | MLBMIL | 31 | .111/.226/.111 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -0.0 | ||
| 2017 | 28 | AAATEX | 342 | .258/.330/.529 | 23 | 0 | 62 | — | .186/.239/.360 | |
| 2017 | 28 | MLBTEX | 39 | .211/.231/.368 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 0.1 | ||
| 2018 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 427 | 374 | 99 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 48 | 123 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 265 | 351 | 404 | 755 | 139 | 372 | 29 | 11 | 338 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 481 | 435 | 120 | 31 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 121 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 276 | 335 | 439 | 775 | 163 | 350 | 25 | 7 | 339 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 60 | 56 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 161 | 203 | 268 | 471 | 107 | 189 | 30 | 5 | 210 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 397 | 371 | 112 | 25 | 1 | 18 | 21 | 95 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 302 | 346 | 520 | 866 | 218 | 363 | 24 | 5 | 379 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 60 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 300 | 518 | 818 | 268 | 303 | 32 | 7 | 355 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 286 | 267 | 77 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 70 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 288 | 329 | 509 | 838 | 221 | 335 | 24 | 5 | 363 | 128 | +9 | +0 | +3 | +1 | +6 | 2.1 |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 100 | 93 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 333 | 380 | 677 | 1.057 | 344 | 333 | 18 | 7 | 454 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 374 | 348 | 79 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 20 | 98 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 273 | 425 | 698 | 198 | 263 | 26 | 5 | 304 | 84 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +8 | 0.4 |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 196 | 179 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 268 | 328 | 464 | 792 | 196 | 288 | 19 | 8 | 348 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 234 | 215 | 41 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 191 | 256 | 265 | 522 | 74 | 273 | 30 | 6 | 242 | 43 | -16 | -0 | +1 | +1 | +5 | -0.8 |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 112 | 104 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 279 | 375 | 654 | 144 | 282 | 27 | 5 | 290 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | — | 270 | 255 | 54 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 60 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 244 | 361 | 605 | 149 | 237 | 22 | 4 | 264 | 66 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 164 | 153 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 255 | 292 | 379 | 671 | 124 | 299 | 21 | 5 | 294 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 31 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 226 | 111 | 337 | 214 | 42 | 13 | 178 | 7 | -3 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 264 | 248 | 70 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 59 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 282 | 313 | 508 | 821 | 226 | 328 | 22 | 3 | 351 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 39 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 231 | 368 | 599 | 158 | 333 | 36 | 3 | 259 | 55 | -2 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 342 | 306 | 79 | 14 | 0 | 23 | 31 | 88 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 258 | 330 | 529 | 860 | 271 | 283 | 26 | 9 | 371 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1234 | 1150 | 262 | 51 | 4 | 43 | 64 | 325 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 228 | 274 | 391 | 665 | 163 | 277 | 26 | 5 | 293 | 84 | -23 | +0 | +6 | +9 | +27 | 1.9 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 427 | 390 | 82 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 165 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 210 | 274 | 313 | 586 | 103 | 340 | 39 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 481 | 448 | 92 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 189 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 205 | 249 | 319 | 568 | 114 | 314 | 39 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 60 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 158 | 186 | 263 | 450 | 105 | 188 | 37 | 3 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 397 | 377 | 97 | 20 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 118 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 257 | 293 | 419 | 712 | 162 | 338 | 30 | 4 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 286 | 267 | 74 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 70 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 277 | 318 | 491 | 809 | 213 | 335 | 24 | 5 | 357 | 128 | +9 | +0 | +3 | +1 | +6 | 2.1 |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 100 | 95 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 295 | 330 | 537 | 867 | 242 | 325 | 22 | 5 | 364 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 374 | 351 | 76 | 16 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 98 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 257 | 407 | 664 | 191 | 263 | 26 | 5 | 292 | 84 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +8 | 0.4 |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 196 | 184 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 287 | 397 | 684 | 152 | 275 | 23 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 234 | 216 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 248 | 255 | 502 | 69 | 273 | 30 | 6 | 232 | 43 | -16 | -0 | +1 | +1 | +5 | -0.8 |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 112 | 106 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 234 | 311 | 546 | 113 | 253 | 33 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB MLE | San Diego Padres | — | 270 | 255 | 54 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 60 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 244 | 361 | 605 | 149 | 237 | 22 | 4 | 266 | 66 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 164 | 156 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 199 | 224 | 295 | 518 | 96 | 247 | 28 | 3 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB MLE | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 31 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 226 | 111 | 337 | 214 | 42 | 13 | 178 | 7 | -3 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 264 | 252 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 79 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 198 | 220 | 353 | 573 | 155 | 240 | 30 | 2 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 39 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 231 | 368 | 599 | 158 | 333 | 36 | 3 | 249 | 55 | -2 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 342 | 317 | 59 | 10 | 0 | 15 | 20 | 110 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 186 | 239 | 360 | 599 | 174 | 221 | 32 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 427 | 390 | 82 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 165 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 210 | 274 | 313 | 586 | 103 | 345 | 39 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 427 | 374 | 99 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 48 | 123 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 265 | 351 | 404 | 755 | 139 | 372 | 29 | 11 | 338 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 481 | 448 | 92 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 189 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 205 | 249 | 319 | 568 | 114 | 323 | 39 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 481 | 435 | 120 | 31 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 121 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 276 | 335 | 439 | 775 | 163 | 350 | 25 | 7 | 339 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 517 | 491 | 119 | 23 | 1 | 17 | 20 | 159 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 242 | 278 | 397 | 675 | 155 | 322 | 31 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 517 | 483 | 135 | 28 | 1 | 24 | 28 | 132 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 280 | 324 | 491 | 815 | 211 | 337 | 26 | 5 | 356 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 386 | 362 | 102 | 15 | 1 | 21 | 18 | 92 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 282 | 321 | 503 | 824 | 221 | 321 | 24 | 5 | 359 | 129 | +13 | +1 | +3 | +1 | +8 | 2.7 |
| 2012 | 23 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 386 | 360 | 108 | 17 | 1 | 24 | 20 | 88 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 300 | 342 | 553 | 895 | 253 | 335 | 23 | 5 | 387 | 129 | +13 | +1 | +3 | +1 | +8 | 2.7 |
| 2013 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 570 | 535 | 122 | 20 | 0 | 26 | 28 | 143 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 269 | 411 | 680 | 183 | 259 | 25 | 5 | 293 | 84 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +12 | 0.5 |
| 2013 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 570 | 527 | 127 | 23 | 0 | 27 | 36 | 136 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 241 | 292 | 438 | 730 | 197 | 272 | 24 | 6 | 319 | 84 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +12 | 0.5 |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 346 | 322 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 107 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 186 | 241 | 270 | 511 | 84 | 261 | 31 | 5 | 229 | 41 | -24 | -0 | +1 | +1 | +7 | -1.4 |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 346 | 319 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 100 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 264 | 301 | 565 | 97 | 276 | 29 | 6 | 257 | 41 | -24 | -0 | +1 | +1 | +7 | -1.4 |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 411 | 86 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 106 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 209 | 239 | 338 | 577 | 129 | 247 | 24 | 4 | 251 | 56 | -23 | -1 | -1 | +2 | +9 | -1.4 |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 434 | 408 | 93 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 95 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 228 | 262 | 368 | 630 | 140 | 261 | 22 | 4 | 275 | 56 | -23 | -1 | -1 | +2 | +9 | -1.4 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 295 | 279 | 53 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 92 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 190 | 221 | 330 | 550 | 140 | 246 | 31 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 295 | 275 | 73 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 265 | 303 | 469 | 773 | 204 | 320 | 24 | 4 | 333 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 381 | 355 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 15 | 21 | 124 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 189 | 238 | 361 | 599 | 172 | 237 | 33 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 381 | 344 | 87 | 16 | 2 | 23 | 32 | 102 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 253 | 320 | 512 | 832 | 259 | 288 | 27 | 8 | 360 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 427 | 390 | 82 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 165 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 210 | 274 | 313 | 586 | 103 | 340 | 39 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 481 | 452 | 92 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 189 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 204 | 249 | 316 | 565 | 113 | 314 | 39 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 517 | 488 | 119 | 23 | 1 | 17 | 20 | 159 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 244 | 278 | 400 | 677 | 156 | 318 | 31 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 386 | 362 | 102 | 15 | 1 | 21 | 18 | 92 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 282 | 321 | 503 | 824 | 221 | 333 | 24 | 5 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 570 | 535 | 122 | 20 | 0 | 26 | 28 | 143 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 269 | 411 | 680 | 183 | 267 | 25 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 346 | 320 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 107 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 188 | 241 | 272 | 512 | 84 | 266 | 31 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 415 | 86 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 106 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 207 | 239 | 335 | 574 | 128 | 241 | 24 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 295 | 282 | 53 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 92 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 188 | 221 | 326 | 547 | 138 | 237 | 31 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 381 | 355 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 15 | 21 | 124 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 189 | 238 | 361 | 599 | 172 | 232 | 33 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1234 | 1150 | 262 | 51 | 4 | 43 | 64 | 325 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 228 | 274 | 391 | 665 | 163 | 277 | 26 | 5 | 293 | 70 | -23 | +0 | +6 | +9 | +27 | 1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 606 | 138 | 27 | 2 | 23 | 34 | 171 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 228 | 275 | 393 | 668 | 165 | 276 | 26 | 5 | 293 | 70 | -12 | +0 | +3 | +5 | +14 | 1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3837 | 3593 | 783 | 145 | 13 | 118 | 184 | 1177 | 24 | 38 | 17 | 218 | 261 | 364 | 625 | 146 | 285 | 31 | 5 | 272 | 70 | -23 | +0 | +6 | +9 | +27 | 1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 609 | 133 | 25 | 2 | 20 | 31 | 199 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 218 | 261 | 365 | 625 | 146 | 285 | 31 | 5 | 272 | 70 | -12 | +0 | +3 | +5 | +14 | 1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAARound Rock Express · 342 PAwOBA .363 → .260 (−103)K% 25.7% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.73% | ÷1.033 | ×1.290 | — | — | 32.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.77% | ÷1.037 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 5.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.27% | ÷1.039 | ×0.900 | ×0.977 | ×0.982 | 16.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.42% | ÷1.039 | ×0.810 | ×0.977 | ×0.982 | 4.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.046 | ×0.810 | ×0.977 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.55% | ÷1.117 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 7.24% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 109, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .363 → .260; ISO .271 → .182; BABIP .283 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 264 PAwOBA .343 → .242 (−101)K% 22.3% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.35% | ÷0.964 | ×1.290 | — | — | 29.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.65% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 1.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.046 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 15.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.64% | ÷1.196 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 7.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.29% | ÷0.973 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 4.21% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 109, 2B 139, 3B 130, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .343 → .242; ISO .226 → .154; BABIP .328 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 164 PAwOBA .289 → .227 (−61)K% 21.3% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.34% | ÷0.980 | ×1.290 | — | — | 28.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.27% | ÷0.972 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 3.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.58% | ÷1.017 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 20.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.24% | ÷0.970 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 3.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.39% | ÷0.919 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 2.89% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 96, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .289 → .227; ISO .124 → .097; BABIP .299 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 112 PAwOBA .284 → .224 (−60)K% 26.8% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.79% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.36% | ÷1.084 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.32% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×0.952 | ×1.018 | 22.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.937 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×1.018 | 1.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.104 | ×0.970 | ×0.952 | ×1.018 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.240 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 3.73% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 95, 2B 87, 3B 121, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .284 → .224; ISO .144 → .099; BABIP .282 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 196 PAwOBA .340 → .294 (−46)K% 19.4% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.39% | ÷1.018 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷1.069 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.40% | ÷0.964 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.033 | 23.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.55% | ÷1.083 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.033 | 2.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.957 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.09% | ÷1.068 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 5.76% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 93, 2B 117, 3B 91, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .340 → .294; ISO .196 → .158; BABIP .288 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 100 PAwOBA .440 → .364 (−76)K% 18.0% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.00% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.930 | ×1.039 | ×1.048 | 24.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×1.048 | 3.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | ×1.039 | ×1.048 | 1.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.00% | ÷1.280 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 8.25% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 95, 2B 106, 3B 96, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .440 → .364; ISO .344 → .244; BABIP .333 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 397 PAwOBA .369 → .305 (−64)K% 23.9% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.93% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.29% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.64% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | ×1.027 | 24.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.06% | ÷1.034 | ×0.860 | ×0.998 | ×1.027 | 7.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | ×1.027 | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.95% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 100, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .369 → .305; ISO .218 → .163; BABIP .363 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 60 PAwOBA .207 → .182 (−25)K% 30.0% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷0.971 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 3.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.42% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 18.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.955 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 4.86% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .207 → .182; ISO .107 → .093; BABIP .189 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).