Nathan Hickey
C Worcester Red Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/AABOS | 471 | .209/.353/.382 | 13 | 5 | 59 | — | .167/.272/.286 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAABOS | 514 | .234/.327/.408 | 17 | 2 | 58 | — | .188/.253/.313 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAABOS | 231 | .199/.317/.388 | 8 | 0 | 47 | — | .160/.248/.301 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBBOS | 15 | .210/.287/.350 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBBOS | 55 | .210/.287/.349 | 1 | 0 | 75 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 28 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 444 | 350 | 794 | 100 | 385 | 29 | 21 | 364 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 146 | 115 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 403 | 539 | 942 | 287 | 290 | 27 | 16 | 408 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 182 | 140 | 38 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 271 | 433 | 507 | 940 | 236 | 323 | 21 | 21 | 413 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 335 | 291 | 75 | 18 | 0 | 15 | 40 | 91 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 258 | 353 | 474 | 828 | 216 | 323 | 27 | 12 | 366 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 82 | 68 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 407 | 588 | 996 | 294 | 356 | 24 | 15 | 426 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 70 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 357 | 200 | 557 | 18 | 323 | 34 | 21 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 365 | 300 | 63 | 15 | 1 | 13 | 58 | 114 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 210 | 343 | 397 | 740 | 187 | 282 | 31 | 16 | 333 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 106 | 82 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 387 | 329 | 716 | 122 | 315 | 26 | 22 | 339 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 514 | 448 | 105 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 59 | 141 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 234 | 327 | 408 | 736 | 174 | 299 | 27 | 11 | 328 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 231 | 196 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 317 | 388 | 705 | 189 | 242 | 26 | 15 | 317 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 28 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 296 | 182 | 478 | 45 | 293 | 43 | 14 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 146 | 125 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 306 | 432 | 738 | 232 | 230 | 33 | 10 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 182 | 152 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 333 | 395 | 728 | 184 | 277 | 31 | 15 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 335 | 304 | 63 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 111 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 207 | 278 | 359 | 637 | 151 | 281 | 33 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 82 | 73 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 296 | 466 | 762 | 247 | 277 | 33 | 9 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 365 | 319 | 54 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 136 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 169 | 266 | 301 | 567 | 132 | 246 | 37 | 11 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 106 | 89 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 157 | 292 | 236 | 528 | 79 | 248 | 31 | 15 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 514 | 469 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 167 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 253 | 313 | 566 | 126 | 258 | 32 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 231 | 206 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 248 | 301 | 549 | 141 | 205 | 32 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 28 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 296 | 182 | 478 | 45 | 273 | 43 | 14 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK RAW | FCL Red Sox | — | 28 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 444 | 350 | 794 | 100 | 385 | 29 | 21 | 364 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 277 | 57 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 105 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 206 | 321 | 412 | 733 | 206 | 265 | 32 | 12 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 328 | 255 | 67 | 18 | 0 | 16 | 63 | 78 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 263 | 420 | 522 | 941 | 259 | 309 | 24 | 19 | 410 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 487 | 441 | 92 | 20 | 1 | 17 | 40 | 161 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 209 | 280 | 374 | 655 | 166 | 283 | 33 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 487 | 414 | 105 | 25 | 1 | 19 | 67 | 135 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 254 | 363 | 457 | 819 | 203 | 328 | 28 | 14 | 364 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 408 | 67 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 55 | 169 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 164 | 270 | 284 | 554 | 120 | 248 | 36 | 12 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 471 | 382 | 80 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 81 | 142 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 209 | 353 | 382 | 736 | 173 | 290 | 30 | 17 | 334 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 514 | 469 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 167 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 253 | 313 | 566 | 126 | 259 | 32 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | Worcester Red Sox | — | 514 | 448 | 105 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 59 | 141 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 234 | 327 | 408 | 736 | 174 | 299 | 27 | 11 | 328 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 231 | 206 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 248 | 301 | 549 | 141 | 211 | 32 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | Worcester Red Sox | — | 231 | 196 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 317 | 388 | 705 | 189 | 242 | 26 | 15 | 317 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 28 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 296 | 174 | 470 | 43 | 293 | 43 | 14 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 278 | 57 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 105 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 205 | 321 | 410 | 731 | 205 | 256 | 32 | 12 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 487 | 440 | 92 | 20 | 1 | 17 | 40 | 161 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 209 | 280 | 375 | 655 | 166 | 280 | 33 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 409 | 67 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 55 | 169 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 164 | 270 | 284 | 553 | 120 | 246 | 36 | 12 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 514 | 468 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 167 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 253 | 314 | 567 | 126 | 258 | 32 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 231 | 205 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 248 | 302 | 550 | 141 | 205 | 32 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 409 | 67 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 55 | 169 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 164 | 270 | 284 | 553 | 120 | 246 | 36 | 12 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 514 | 468 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 167 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 253 | 314 | 567 | 126 | 258 | 32 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 231 | 205 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 248 | 302 | 550 | 141 | 205 | 32 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 10% | 281 | 252 | 51 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 88 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 204 | 281 | 341 | 622 | 137 | 280 | 31 | 9 | 280 | 75 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 10% | 15 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 287 | 350 | 637 | 140 | 291 | 33 | 7 | 286 | 75 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 31% | 178 | 159 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 55 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 281 | 339 | 620 | 135 | 279 | 31 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 31% | 55 | 50 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 287 | 349 | 636 | 138 | 290 | 31 | 9 | 285 | 75 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 55 | 50 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 320 | 593 | 120 | 281 | 31 | 9 | 285 | 70 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 118 | 35 | 0 | 12 | 59 | 201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 272 | 320 | 592 | 120 | 280 | 31 | 9 | 285 | 70 | -19 | +0 | -3 | +12 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2385 | 2114 | 399 | 95 | 8 | 65 | 232 | 788 | 20 | 12 | 2 | 189 | 275 | 333 | 609 | 145 | 261 | 33 | 10 | 272 | 70 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 109 | 26 | 2 | 18 | 63 | 215 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 274 | 335 | 609 | 146 | 261 | 33 | 10 | 272 | 70 | -19 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 231 PAwOBA .311 → .238 (−73)K% 26.4% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.41% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.951 | ×1.003 | 13.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.951 | ×1.003 | 5.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.951 | ×1.003 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.16% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .311 → .238; ISO .189 → .140; BABIP .242 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 514 PAwOBA .320 → .254 (−66)K% 27.4% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.43% | ÷1.013 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.89% | ÷1.042 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.52% | ÷1.060 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×1.018 | 18.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.49% | ÷0.991 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.018 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×1.018 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.54% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.01% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .320 → .254; ISO .174 → .134; BABIP .299 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 365 PAwOBA .328 → .257 (−71)K% 31.2% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.23% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.89% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.28% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×0.966 | ×1.033 | 16.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×1.033 | 7.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.143 | ×0.970 | ×0.966 | ×1.033 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.99% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 5.08% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .328 → .257; ISO .187 → .144; BABIP .282 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 106 PAwOBA .332 → .249 (−83)K% 26.4% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.42% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.70% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 14.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.96% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 11.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷1.165 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 12.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .332 → .249; ISO .122 → .089; BABIP .315 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 335 PAwOBA .357 → .278 (−79)K% 27.2% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.94% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 20.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.00% | ÷1.144 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 6.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 5.65% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .357 → .278; ISO .216 → .156; BABIP .323 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greenville Drive · 82 PAwOBA .419 → .319 (−101)K% 24.4% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.39% | ÷0.981 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.63% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 8.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 15.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 9.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.931 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 7.79% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .419 → .319; ISO .294 → .250; BABIP .356 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASalem Red Sox · 182 PAwOBA .406 → .322 (−84)K% 21.4% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.930 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.88% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 14.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.81% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×0.990 | 16.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.88% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×0.990 | 10.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.93% | ÷0.873 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 6.28% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .406 → .322; ISO .236 → .201; BABIP .323 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greenville Drive · 146 PAwOBA .403 → .318 (−84)K% 26.7% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.71% | ÷1.059 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.44% | ÷1.001 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 9.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.42% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 2.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.42% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×0.958 | ×0.998 | 15.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.958 | ×0.998 | 5.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.958 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.84% | ÷0.996 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 10.44% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .403 → .318; ISO .287 → .258; BABIP .290 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .