Nathan Hickey — OGILVIE

Nathan HickeyC Worcester Red Sox

Age 26 L/R 5'11" / 210 lbs AAA H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION152 act + 101 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .269 / .332

PA101

HR3

K%32

BB%10

BABIP249

ISO144

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	28	22	4	1	0	0	4	12	1	0	0	182	333	227	561	45	364	43	14	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	28	20	5	2	0	0	6	8	1	0	0	250	444	350	794	100	385	29	21	364	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	2 teams	—	328	277	58	15	0	15	41	111	6	0	1	209	324	426	750	217	277	34	12	327	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	2 teams	—	328	255	67	18	0	16	63	78	6	0	1	263	420	522	941	259	309	24	19	410	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	487	442	89	18	1	18	39	170	4	3	0	201	272	369	641	167	277	35	8	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	487	414	105	25	1	19	67	135	4	3	0	254	363	457	819	203	328	28	14	364	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	471	411	68	20	1	11	52	170	4	5	1	165	266	299	565	134	244	36	11	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	471	382	80	25	1	13	81	142	4	5	1	209	353	382	736	173	290	30	17	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	514	472	88	19	2	15	35	165	3	2	0	186	247	331	578	144	247	32	7	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	514	448	105	23	2	17	59	141	3	2	0	234	327	408	736	174	299	27	11	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AAA	BOS	—	152	132	21	5	0	5	19	47	0	0	0	159	265	311	576	152	198	31	12	256	54	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
YTD	26	AAA	BOS	—	152	124	24	6	0	6	27	39	0	0	0	194	338	387	725	194	225	26	18	328	109	+2	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.9
ROS	26	AAA	BOS	10%	101	90	17	4	0	3	10	32	0	1	0	188	269	332	601	144	259	32	10	278	71	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
ROS	26	MLB	BOS	10%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		266	30	10	279	72	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	26	AAA	BOS	—	162	141	22	5	0	5	20	50	0	0	0	156	261	298	559	142	195	31	12	257	55	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
TOT	26	AAA	BOS	—	253	222	38	9	0	8	29	79	0	1	0	171	267	319	586	148	218	31	11	265	61	-11	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	BOS	31%	336	299	60	14	1	10	32	104	2	2	0	201	282	355	637	154	262	31	10	283	75	-10	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.6
2028	28	MLB	BOS	42%	364	324	65	15	1	11	35	111	2	2	0	201	283	355	637	154	264	30	10	285	76	-10	+0	-1	+7	+10	0.7
2029	29	MLB	BOS	46%	373	332	67	15	1	11	36	113	2	2	0	202	284	352	636	151	265	30	10	285	76	-10	+0	-1	+7	+11	0.6
2030	30	MLB	BOS	48%	378	337	68	15	1	11	36	115	2	2	0	202	283	350	633	148	264	30	10	283	75	-11	+0	-2	+7	+11	0.5
2031	31	MLB	BOS	50%	358	319	63	14	1	10	34	110	2	1	0	197	279	342	621	144	262	31	9	279	72	-11	+0	-3	+6	+10	0.3
2032	32	MLB	BOS	50%	333	296	58	13	1	9	32	104	2	1	0	196	279	338	617	142	258	31	10	274	68	-12	+0	-4	+6	+9	-0.0
2027	27	MLB	BOS	31%	104	92	18	4	0	3	10	32	1	1	0	196	282	337	619	141	269	31	10	283	75	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2028	28	MLB	BOS	42%	153	136	28	7	0	5	15	47	1	1	0	206	289	368	657	162	271	31	10	285	76	-4	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.3
2029	29	MLB	BOS	46%	172	152	31	7	0	5	17	52	1	1	0	204	288	349	637	145	272	30	10	285	76	-5	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.3
2030	30	MLB	BOS	48%	183	162	33	8	0	5	18	56	1	1	0	204	287	346	633	142	271	31	10	283	75	-5	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.3
2031	31	MLB	BOS	50%	178	158	31	7	0	5	17	55	1	1	0	196	278	335	614	139	269	31	10	279	72	-6	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.1
2032	32	MLB	BOS	50%	168	149	30	7	0	5	16	52	1	1	0	201	283	349	632	148	265	31	10	274	68	-6	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	968	858	172	40	0	28	94	297	6	6	0	200	284	345	629	145	267	31	10	282	74	-29	+1	-5	+17	+27	1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	116	27	0	19	63	199	4	4	0	201	285	347	632	146	268	31	10	282	74	-19	+1	-3	+12	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	4071	3621	705	163	10	124	386	1317	30	21	2	195	278	348	626	153	263	32	9	278	71	-133	+3	-10	+73	+115	4.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	113	26	2	20	62	210	5	3	0	196	279	351	630	156	264	32	10	278	71	-21	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	28	20	5	2	0	0	6	8	1	0	0	250	444	350	794	100	385	29	21	364	137	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	22	A+	Greenville Drive	—	146	115	29	6	0	9	24	39	5	0	0	252	403	539	942	287	290	27	16	408	170	+12	+0	—	—	+4	1.6
2022	22	A	Salem Red Sox	—	182	140	38	12	0	7	39	39	1	0	1	271	433	507	940	236	323	21	21	413	174	+15	-0	—	—	+5	2.0
2023	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	335	291	75	18	0	15	40	91	3	3	0	258	353	474	828	216	323	27	12	366	138	+14	+1	—	—	+9	2.5
2023	23	A+	Greenville Drive	—	82	68	20	6	1	4	12	20	1	0	0	294	407	588	996	294	356	24	15	426	184	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.0
2023	23	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	70	55	10	1	0	0	15	24	0	0	0	182	357	200	557	18	323	34	21	284	76	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2024	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	365	300	63	15	1	13	58	114	3	4	0	210	343	397	740	187	282	31	16	333	113	+5	+1	—	—	+10	1.7
2024	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	106	82	17	10	0	0	23	28	1	1	1	207	387	329	716	122	315	26	22	339	118	+2	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	25	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	514	448	105	23	2	17	59	141	3	2	0	234	327	408	736	174	299	27	11	328	109	+5	+0	—	—	+15	2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	10	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	982	28	4	199	278	346	+18	+12	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	19	3	199	278	346	+11.9	+8.1	1.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nathan Hickey (OGILVIE)	26	40	55	45	55	171/267/319	148	218	8	1	31%	11%	61	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Collins 2022 · MLB	27	42→43	48→50	44→40	51	207/302/350	143	292	15	4	32%	12%	85	+0.7	202/287/348	146	299	16	6	35%	10%	78	+0.2	188/274/332	143	282	16	5	37%	10%	67	-0.3
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB	27	41→42	50	42→40	43	209/294/364	155	295	17	3	34%	8%	85	+0.7	225/296/383	158	313	17	4	32%	7%	91	+1.1	219/289/370	151	311	17	2	33%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Isan Díaz 2022 · MLB	26	42	48→55	38→45	48	214/291/356	142	281	16	4	29%	9%	82	+0.5	218/292/403	185	293	25	9	33%	9%	95	+1.4	193/273/381	188	236	29	8	32%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Andrew Susac 2016 · MLB	26	45→40	50	47→30	46	228/302/385	157	299	17	3	29%	8%	94	+1.3	198/265/335	137	271	16	3	32%	8%	66	-0.6	171/243/299	127	230	17	0	33%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Drew Ellis 2023 · MLB	27	39→37	52→55	46→40	48	203/292/382	179	269	18	6	31%	10%	89	+1.0	195/284/360	165	248	20	6	29%	10%	81	+0.4	169/268/327	158	201	23	3	29%	11%	62	-0.4
●Luke Montz 2009 · MLB	26	42→46	49→55	41→40	45	216/276/363	147	273	17	3	28%	7%	77	+0.1	204/273/344	140	253	17	4	26%	8%	71	-0.3	211/285/427	216	246	30	4	28%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Zack Short 2022 · MLB	27	36→38	50	47→45	50	192/289/343	151	253	19	7	31%	10%	79	+0.3	193/288/320	127	267	14	10	30%	11%	72	-0.2	180/282/293	113	252	12	11	31%	12%	61	-0.6
✕Erik Ostberg 2022 · AA	26	43	49→55	42→45	40	219/277/360	140	313	19	4	35%	7%	76	+0.1	205/264/345	140	291	16	7	34%	7%	66	-0.6	174/235/316	143	238	17	7	34%	7%	45	-0.6
✕Chance Sisco 2021 · MLB	26	44→54	52→50	43→40	47	223/324/388	165	300	20	3	31%	9%	105	+2.1	204/288/345	141	275	15	5	30%	8%	78	+0.2	160/245/277	117	216	10	0	30%	7%	40	-1.0
✕Johnny Monell 2012 · AAA	26	42→44	46→50	44→45	43	214/269/344	131	281	14	5	28%	7%	69	-0.4	215/282/356	141	288	14	6	29%	8%	77	+0.1	211/282/355	144	277	15	6	28%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Lucas May 2011 · MLB	26	44→43	47→55	45	40	224/275/362	139	294	15	6	29%	6%	76	+0.0	197/242/314	117	276	12	6	32%	5%	49	-1.8	172/214/272	100	245	10	3	33%	4%	24	-1.5
✕Luis Torrens 2023 · MLB	27	46→47	52→55	46→30	44	238/295/399	161	303	20	3	28%	7%	94	+1.3	232/286/372	140	298	15	4	26%	6%	83	+0.6	227/280/355	128	284	13	2	24%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Chris Herrmann 2014 · MLB	26	44→48	44→50	44→50	47	219/279/332	112	273	11	5	24%	8%	69	-0.4	223/279/346	123	289	11	8	25%	7%	72	-0.2	217/305/384	166	277	20	8	28%	11%	92	+0.5
✕Jake Rogers 2021 · MLB	26	38→40	52→60	49→45	43	202/278/367	165	273	21	5	33%	8%	79	+0.3	237/301/444	207	322	27	7	33%	8%	108	+2.3	221/284/435	214	280	29	2	32%	7%	97	+0.7
✕Hunter Feduccia 2023 · AAA	26	40→50	51→50	47→40	44	213/275/372	159	274	20	3	30%	8%	79	+0.3	228/307/361	133	307	14	3	28%	10%	89	+1.0	232/319/354	122	311	11	2	27%	11%	90	+0.7
✕Shed Long Jr. 2022 · MLB	26	44→47	50	49→50	45	225/285/378	153	293	17	9	29%	8%	84	+0.6	224/292/350	126	317	12	10	31%	8%	79	+0.3	191/272/253	61	319	0	9	36%	9%	42	-0.4
✕Reese Havens 2013 · AA	26	42→40	47→45	43→40	44	207/286/340	133	309	15	4	36%	9%	76	+0.0	211/279/322	111	290	11	8	29%	8%	67	-0.5	186/248/248	62	231	4	5	20%	7%	32	-0.5
✕Carson Blair 2016 · MLB	26	42	47→50	49→30	40	201/271/342	140	328	15	3	41%	8%	69	-0.4	201/268/320	119	342	13	5	42%	7%	63	-0.9	174/247/271	97	307	12	2	44%	7%	37	-0.6
✕Tristan Gray 2022 · AAA	26	42→35	48→55	41→40	42	216/275/358	142	287	16	5	30%	7%	75	-0.0	190/242/353	163	263	22	4	36%	5%	60	-1.0	202/259/335	133	273	15	3	31%	6%	61	-0.6
✕César Salazar 2022 · AA	26	40	47→45	48→45	40	207/269/342	135	261	16	9	27%	5%	69	-0.4	209/287/340	131	253	15	8	23%	6%	76	+0.1	202/308/314	111	241	11	6	20%	9%	77	+0.1