Nathan Hickey

C Worcester Red Sox
Age 27 L/R 5'11" / 210 lbs AAA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2179MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AAA/AABOS471.209/.353/.38213559—.167/.272/.286
202525AAABOS514.234/.327/.40817258—.188/.253/.313
202626AAABOS231.199/.317/.3888047—.160/.248/.301
2027PROJ10% MLB27MLBBOS15.210/.287/.35000750.0
2028PROJ31% MLB28MLBBOS55.210/.287/.34910750.0
Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
BB%84
Chase%73
Max EV64
Z-Con%61
Whiff%56
Speed39
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%
CompsZack Collins (age 27) · Riley Adams (age 27) · Andrew Susac (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†75
AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .287 / .350
PA15
HR0
K%33
BB%7
BABIP291
ISO71
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +3.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.00.02728
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER55
scouting grade only
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202121 ROKFCL Red Sox — 2820 5200 681 00 250444350794 100385 2921 364 59 — — — — — —
202222 A+Greenville Drive — 146115 29609 24395 00 252403539942 287290 2716 408 101 — — — — — —
202222 ASalem Red Sox — 182140 381207 39391 01 271433507940 236323 2121 413 104 — — — — — —
202323 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 335291 7518015 40913 30 258353474828 216323 2712 366 74 — — — — — —
202323 A+Greenville Drive — 8268 20614 12201 00 294407588996 294356 2415 426 102 — — — — — —
202323 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 7055 10100 15240 00 182357200557 18323 3421 284 78 — — — — — —
202424 AAAWorcester Red Sox — 365300 6315113 581143 40 210343397740 187282 3116 333 60 — — — — — —
202424 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 10682 171000 23281 11 207387329716 122315 2622 339 55 — — — — — —
202525 AAAWorcester Red Sox — 514448 10523217 591413 20 234327408736 174299 2711 328 58 — — — — — —
202626 AAAWorcester Red Sox — 231196 39928 34610 00 199317388705 189242 2615 317 47 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202121 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 2822 3100 4121 00 136296182478 45293 4314 256 59 — — — — — —
202222 A+ MLEGreenville Drive — 146125 25508 14485 00 200306432738 232230 3310 318 101 — — — — — —
202222 A MLESalem Red Sox — 182152 321006 27571 01 211333395728 184277 3115 322 104 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 335304 6313011 271113 30 207278359637 151281 338 278 74 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLEGreenville Drive — 8273 16414 7271 00 219296466762 247277 339 319 102 — — — — — —
202424 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 365319 541319 391363 40 169266301567 132246 3711 257 60 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 10689 14700 16331 11 157292236528 79248 3115 249 55 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 514469 8819212 381673 20 188253313566 126258 327 254 58 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 231206 33726 24730 00 160248301549 141205 3210 238 47 — — — — — —
202121 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 2822 3100 4121 00 136296182478 45273 4314 256 59 — — — — — —
202121 ROK RAWFCL Red Sox — 2820 5200 681 00 250444350794 100385 2921 364 59 — — — — — —
202222 A MLE2 teams — 328277 5715014 411056 01 206321412733 206265 3212 320 103 — — — — — —
202222 A RAW2 teams — 328255 6718016 63786 01 263420522941 259309 2419 410 103 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLE3 teams — 487441 9220117 401614 30 209280374655 166283 338 286 80 — — — — — —
202323 AA RAW3 teams — 487414 10525119 671354 30 254363457819 203328 2814 364 80 — — — — — —
202424 AAA MLE2 teams — 471408 672019 551694 51 164270284554 120248 3612 255 59 — — — — — —
202424 AAA RAW2 teams — 471382 8025113 811424 51 209353382736 173290 3017 334 59 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 514469 8819212 381673 20 188253313566 126259 327 254 58 — — — — — —
202525 AAA RAWWorcester Red Sox — 514448 10523217 591413 20 234327408736 174299 2711 328 58 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 231206 33726 24730 00 160248301549 141211 3210 238 47 — — — — — —
202626 AAA RAWWorcester Red Sox — 231196 39928 34610 00 199317388705 189242 2615 317 47 — — — — — —
202121 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 2823 3100 4121 00 130296174470 43293 4314 256 59 — — — — — —
202222 A MLE2 teams — 328278 5715014 411056 01 205321410731 205256 3212 320 103 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLE3 teams — 487440 9220117 401614 30 209280375655 166280 338 286 80 — — — — — —
202424 AAA MLE2 teams — 471409 672019 551694 51 164270284553 120246 3612 255 59 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 514468 8819212 381673 20 188253314567 126258 327 254 58 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 231205 33726 24730 00 161248302550 141205 3210 238 47 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 AAA MLE2 teams — 471409 672019 551694 51 164270284553 120246 3612 255 59 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 514468 8819212 381673 20 188253314567 126258 327 254 58 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 231205 33726 24730 00 161248302550 141205 3210 238 47 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLEBOS 10% 281252 511217 26881 20 204281341622 137280 319 280 75 -8 +0 +0 +5 +6 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXBOS 10% 1514 3100 150 00 210287350637 140291 337 286 75 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLEBOS 31% 178159 32714 16551 10 204281339620 135279 319 279 75 -5 +0 -1 +3 +4 0.1
202828 MLB CTXBOS 31% 5550 10301 5170 00 210287349636 138290 319 285 75 -2 +0 -0 +1 +1 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 5550 10301 5170 00 200273320593 120281 319 285 70 -2 +0 -0 +1 +1 0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650591 11835012 592010 00 200272320592 120280 319 285 70 -19 +0 -3 +12 +14 0.4
Career— MLE — 23852114 39995865 23278820 122 189275333609 145261 3310 272 70 -10 +0 -1 +6 +7 0.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650576 10926218 632155 31 189274335609 146261 3310 272 70 -19 +1 -1 +12 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 231 PAwOBA .311 → .238 (−73)K% 26.4% → 31.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.41%÷1.000×1.200——31.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.72%÷1.000×0.690—×1.00310.19%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0030.00%
Singles /BIP14.81%÷1.000×0.930×0.951×1.00313.15%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷1.000×0.830×0.951×1.0035.28%
Triples /BIP1.48%÷1.000×0.970×0.951×1.0031.37%
Home runs /BIP5.93%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0034.16%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .311 → .238; ISO .189 → .140; BABIP .242 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 514 PAwOBA .320 → .254 (−66)K% 27.4% → 32.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.43%÷1.013×1.200——32.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.89%÷1.042×0.690—×1.0187.34%
HBP% /PA0.58%—×0.940—×1.0180.56%
Singles /BIP20.52%÷1.060×0.930×0.988×1.01818.11%
Doubles /BIP7.49%÷0.991×0.830×0.988×1.0186.32%
Triples /BIP0.65%÷1.000×0.970×0.988×1.0180.64%
Home runs /BIP5.54%÷0.984×0.700—×1.0184.01%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .320 → .254; ISO .174 → .134; BABIP .299 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 365 PAwOBA .328 → .257 (−71)K% 31.2% → 37.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.23%÷1.004×1.200——37.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.89%÷1.049×0.690—×1.03310.79%
HBP% /PA0.82%—×0.940—×1.0330.80%
Singles /BIP18.28%÷1.036×0.930×0.966×1.03316.38%
Doubles /BIP8.06%÷0.951×0.830×0.966×1.0337.02%
Triples /BIP0.54%÷1.143×0.970×0.966×1.0330.46%
Home runs /BIP6.99%÷0.996×0.700—×1.0335.08%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .328 → .257; ISO .187 → .144; BABIP .282 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 106 PAwOBA .332 → .249 (−83)K% 26.4% → 31.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.42%÷1.033×1.220——31.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA21.70%÷1.025×0.700—×0.99814.79%
HBP% /PA0.94%—×0.850—×0.9980.80%
Singles /BIP12.96%÷1.004×0.970×0.950×0.99811.88%
Doubles /BIP18.52%÷1.165×0.860×0.950×0.99812.96%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.950×0.950×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.018×0.780—×0.9980.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .332 → .249; ISO .122 → .089; BABIP .315 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 335 PAwOBA .357 → .278 (−79)K% 27.2% → 33.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.16%÷1.000×1.220——33.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.94%÷1.032×0.700—×1.0128.19%
HBP% /PA0.90%—×0.850—×1.0120.77%
Singles /BIP21.00%÷0.972×0.970×0.950×1.01220.15%
Doubles /BIP9.00%÷1.144×0.860×0.950×1.0126.50%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.950×0.950×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP7.50%÷1.048×0.780—×1.0125.65%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .357 → .278; ISO .216 → .156; BABIP .323 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greenville Drive · 82 PAwOBA .419 → .319 (−101)K% 24.4% → 32.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.39%÷0.981×1.310——32.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.63%÷1.028×0.600—×0.9888.44%
HBP% /PA1.22%—×0.770—×0.9880.93%
Singles /BIP18.75%÷1.053×0.870—×0.98815.31%
Doubles /BIP12.50%÷1.033×0.780—×0.9889.33%
Triples /BIP2.08%÷1.150×0.850—×0.9881.52%
Home runs /BIP8.33%÷0.931×0.880—×0.9887.79%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .419 → .319; ISO .294 → .250; BABIP .356 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASalem Red Sox · 182 PAwOBA .406 → .322 (−84)K% 21.4% → 31.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.43%÷0.930×1.360——31.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.88%÷0.967×0.690—×0.99014.74%
HBP% /PA0.55%—×0.780—×0.9900.42%
Singles /BIP18.81%÷1.026×0.920×0.982×0.99016.40%
Doubles /BIP11.88%÷0.950×0.830×0.982×0.99010.09%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.106×0.910×0.982×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP6.93%÷0.873×0.800—×0.9906.28%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .406 → .322; ISO .236 → .201; BABIP .323 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 146 PAwOBA .403 → .318 (−84)K% 26.7% → 33.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.71%÷1.059×1.310——33.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.44%÷1.001×0.600—×0.9989.84%
HBP% /PA3.42%—×0.770—×0.9982.63%
Singles /BIP18.42%÷1.005×0.870×0.958×0.99815.26%
Doubles /BIP7.89%÷1.000×0.780×0.958×0.9985.89%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.850×0.958×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP11.84%÷0.996×0.880—×0.99810.44%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .403 → .318; ISO .287 → .258; BABIP .290 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .