Nathan Hickey — OGILVIE

Nathan HickeyC Worcester Red Sox

Age 26 L/R 5'11" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2028

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .276 / .346

PA250

HR7

K%34

BB%9

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

55→55

SPD

45→45

EYE

54↗55

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-3	$0.2M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.7M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$3M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	ROK	FCL Red Sox	28	22	4	1	0	0	4	12	1	0	0	.182	.333	.227	.561	.045	.364	43	14	.261	58	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2022	22	A	2 teams	328	279	59	15	0	15	39	106	6	0	1	.211	.321	.427	.748	.215	.272	32	12	.323	105	+2	-0	+0	+6	+9	1.7
2023	23	AA	3 teams	487	441	91	20	1	18	40	167	4	3	0	.206	.278	.379	.657	.172	.283	34	8	.288	79	-12	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.2
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	471	409	68	20	1	11	54	171	4	5	1	.166	.270	.301	.571	.134	.247	36	11	.257	55	-24	+1	+0	+8	+13	-0.2
2025	25	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	514	469	90	19	2	14	38	168	3	2	0	.192	.257	.330	.587	.139	.261	33	7	.260	57	-25	+0	+0	+9	+15	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	26	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	31	27	3	1	0	0	3	10	0	0	0	.111	.200	.148	.348	.037	.167	32	10	.173	-9	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
ROS	26	MLB	BOS	219	196	39	9	1	6	20	74	1	2	0	.199	.276	.347	.623	.148	.274	34	9	.274	68	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
TOT	26	MLB	BOS	250	223	42	10	1	6	23	84	1	2	0	.188	.267	.323	.590	.135	.267	34	9	.262	58	-12	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB 25%	BOS	336	299	60	14	1	9	32	103	2	3	0	.201	.282	.344	.627	.144	.268	31	10	.282	74	-10	+1	+0	+6	+10	0.6
2028	28	MLB 37%	BOS	364	324	66	15	1	10	34	110	3	2	0	.204	.285	.349	.634	.145	.270	30	9	.284	76	-10	+0	-1	+7	+10	0.7
2029	29	MLB 47%	BOS	373	332	67	15	1	10	35	112	3	2	0	.202	.284	.343	.627	.142	.270	30	9	.284	76	-10	+0	-1	+7	+11	0.6
2030	30	MLB 55%	BOS	378	336	68	15	1	10	36	114	3	1	0	.202	.285	.342	.628	.140	.270	30	10	.282	74	-11	+0	-2	+7	+11	0.5
2031	31	MLB 66%	BOS	358	319	63	14	1	9	34	110	2	0	0	.197	.279	.332	.611	.135	.268	31	9	.278	71	-12	+0	-3	+6	+10	0.2
2032	32	MLB 75%	BOS	333	297	58	13	1	8	31	104	2	0	0	.195	.276	.327	.602	.131	.266	31	9	.274	68	-12	+0	-4	+6	+9	-0.0
2033	33	MLB 83%	BOS	297	265	51	11	1	7	28	95	2	0	0	.192	.275	.321	.595	.128	.264	32	9	.268	63	-12	+0	-4	+5	+8	-0.3
2034	34	MLB	BOS	250	223	42	9	1	6	23	82	2	0	0	.188	.270	.318	.589	.130	.262	33	9	.261	58	-12	+0	-5	+4	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4736	4211	826	190	13	133	448	1528	38	20	2	.196	.279	.342	.622	.146	.269	32	9	.278	71	-157	+3	-20	+85	+134	4.6
/ 162G	—			650	578	113	26	2	18	61	210	5	3	0	.196	.278	.341	.618	.145	.268	32	9	.278	71	-22	+1	-3	+12	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	ROK	FCL Red Sox	28	20	5	2	0	0	6	8	1	0	0	.250	.444	.350	.794	.100	.385	29	21	.364	137	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	22	A+	Greenville Drive	146	115	29	6	0	9	24	39	5	0	0	.252	.403	.539	.942	.287	.290	27	16	.408	170	+12	+0	—	—	+4	1.6
2022	22	A	Salem Red Sox	182	140	38	12	0	7	39	39	1	0	1	.271	.433	.507	.940	.236	.323	21	21	.413	174	+15	-0	—	—	+5	2.0
2023	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	335	291	75	18	0	15	40	91	3	3	0	.258	.353	.474	.828	.216	.323	27	12	.366	138	+14	+1	—	—	+9	2.5
2023	23	A+	Greenville Drive	82	68	20	6	1	4	12	20	1	0	0	.294	.407	.588	.996	.294	.356	24	15	.426	184	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.0
2023	23	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	70	55	10	1	0	0	15	24	0	0	0	.182	.357	.200	.557	.018	.323	34	21	.284	76	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2024	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	365	300	63	15	1	13	58	114	3	4	0	.210	.343	.397	.740	.187	.282	31	16	.333	113	+5	+1	—	—	+10	1.7
2024	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	106	82	17	10	0	0	23	28	1	1	1	.207	.387	.329	.716	.122	.315	26	22	.339	118	+2	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	25	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	514	448	105	23	2	17	59	141	3	2	0	.234	.327	.408	.736	.174	.299	27	11	.328	109	+5	+0	—	—	+15	2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nathan Hickey (OGILVIE)	26	40	55	45	55	.200/.276/.346	.146	.283	7	2	34%	9%	73	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Collins 2022 · MLB	27	43→42	50	44→40	52	.213/.308/.370	.157	.298	17	4	32%	12%	92	+1.2	.201/.288/.349	.148	.295	16	6	35%	11%	79	+0.3	.187/.275/.334	.146	.279	17	5	37%	10%	67	-0.3
✕Isan Díaz 2021 · MLB	25	41→40	50→55	45	43	.213/.280/.364	.151	.286	18	8	31%	8%	79	+0.3	.209/.286/.369	.160	.277	20	7	31%	9%	83	+0.6	.191/.269/.374	.183	.233	28	8	32%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB	27	42	50	43→40	43	.209/.295/.363	.155	.298	17	4	34%	8%	86	+0.8	.225/.297/.384	.159	.313	17	4	32%	7%	92	+1.2	.221/.291/.378	.157	.312	18	2	33%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Drew Ellis 2022 · MLB	26	39→37	53→55	43→40	47	.207/.296/.381	.174	.274	20	3	31%	9%	91	+1.1	.196/.287/.363	.167	.257	19	6	30%	10%	82	+0.5	.177/.274/.338	.161	.222	20	6	29%	11%	68	-0.3
✕Hunter Feduccia 2023 · AAA	26	40→47	50	47→40	45	.212/.276/.366	.154	.271	19	3	29%	8%	78	+0.2	.223/.302/.355	.132	.299	14	3	28%	10%	85	+0.7	.226/.315/.344	.118	.304	11	2	27%	11%	86	+0.5
✕Erik Ostberg 2022 · AA	26	43	48→55	42→45	39	.216/.273/.352	.135	.312	17	4	35%	7%	72	-0.2	.203/.262/.347	.144	.293	17	7	35%	7%	67	-0.5	.171/.233/.318	.147	.237	17	7	35%	7%	44	-0.6
✕Patrick Dorrian 2022 · AAA	26	39→37	48→55	48→45	41	.200/.265/.342	.141	.295	16	6	36%	8%	66	-0.6	.196/.262/.348	.152	.292	19	6	37%	8%	67	-0.5	.176/.243/.318	.142	.254	19	5	37%	7%	48	-1.1
✕Zack Short 2022 · MLB	27	36→39	49→50	47→45	49	.192/.289/.338	.146	.258	18	7	32%	10%	77	+0.1	.192/.286/.318	.126	.265	14	10	31%	11%	70	-0.3	.179/.280/.288	.109	.251	11	11	31%	12%	58	-0.7
✕Johnny Monell 2012 · AAA	26	44	47→50	45	44	.223/.280/.359	.136	.287	14	6	27%	7%	77	+0.1	.221/.285/.363	.142	.294	15	6	28%	8%	80	+0.4	.214/.281/.358	.144	.278	15	6	28%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Reese Havens 2013 · AA	26	44→40	47→45	43→40	44	.216/.291/.347	.132	.316	15	4	35%	9%	79	+0.3	.212/.281/.321	.109	.291	11	7	29%	8%	68	-0.5	.195/.254/.261	.066	.236	4	5	18%	6%	38	-0.5
✕Carson Blair 2016 · MLB	26	43	47→50	48→30	41	.203/.276/.342	.140	.328	14	3	40%	9%	72	-0.2	.201/.270/.322	.121	.337	13	5	41%	8%	64	-0.8	.173/.246/.277	.104	.300	13	2	44%	7%	39	-0.6
✕Shayne Fontana 2023 · AAA	26	41	44→45	45→55	45	.202/.287/.319	.117	.301	13	8	35%	9%	71	-0.3	.224/.301/.331	.107	.295	10	18	26%	8%	79	+0.3	.230/.306/.325	.095	.290	9	25	22%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Brett Cumberland 2021 · AA	26	42→39	46→50	44→30	45	.206/.299/.336	.130	.294	14	4	32%	9%	81	+0.4	.196/.302/.311	.115	.297	13	4	36%	8%	76	+0.1	.167/.285/.268	.102	.260	14	1	37%	8%	56	-0.5
✕Mitch Walding 2019 · MLB	26	42→45	51→50	46→40	43	.207/.288/.365	.157	.322	19	3	39%	9%	82	+0.5	.196/.284/.343	.147	.349	18	5	44%	10%	76	+0.1	.155/.251/.285	.130	.306	17	3	50%	11%	47	-0.8
✕Shed Long Jr. 2022 · MLB	26	44→48	49→50	47→50	44	.222/.282/.372	.150	.290	17	9	29%	8%	82	+0.5	.219/.287/.343	.124	.312	12	10	31%	8%	76	+0.0	.182/.264/.242	.060	.304	0	9	36%	9%	37	-0.5
●Luke Montz 2009 · MLB	26	41→45	49→55	41→40	45	.214/.275/.358	.144	.270	17	3	28%	7%	75	-0.0	.205/.273/.344	.139	.256	17	4	26%	8%	71	-0.3	.202/.277/.410	.208	.237	29	4	29%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Luis Torrens 2022 · MLB	26	45→49	52→55	44→30	46	.235/.294/.401	.166	.288	20	3	26%	8%	94	+1.3	.232/.287/.380	.148	.304	18	3	28%	7%	85	+0.7	.223/.277/.353	.130	.278	13	2	24%	6%	73	-0.0
✕Jason Vosler 2021 · AAA	27	40→44	53→55	46→40	39	.212/.270/.381	.168	.290	21	3	34%	7%	79	+0.3	.217/.283/.385	.168	.267	22	5	27%	8%	85	+0.7	.202/.271/.373	.171	.246	23	4	28%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Ford Proctor 2023 · MLB	26	41→50	46→45	43→45	47	.203/.290/.323	.119	.304	15	6	36%	10%	73	-0.1	.210/.295/.316	.106	.293	12	7	30%	10%	73	-0.1	.199/.299/.276	.077	.260	10	5	25%	12%	63	-0.4
✕Chandler Redmond 2023 · AA	26	39	53→55	43→40	37	.203/.265/.372	.169	.316	22	4	41%	7%	75	-0.0	.203/.277/.356	.153	.325	21	5	41%	9%	76	+0.1	.189/.272/.328	.138	.306	20	4	42%	9%	65	-0.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)