Brett Cumberland
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AA/A+2 orgs | 213 | .254/.406/.426 | 5 | 0 | 88 | — | .212/.335/.346 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAABAL | 335 | .187/.352/.330 | 10 | 1 | 55 | — | .143/.284/.239 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAABAL | 160 | .226/.338/.343 | 4 | 0 | 65 | — | .203/.288/.287 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Danville Braves | — | 189 | 162 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 216 | 321 | 340 | 660 | 123 | 286 | 26 | 7 | 303 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 216 | 182 | 49 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 62 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 269 | 384 | 363 | 747 | 93 | 403 | 29 | 8 | 348 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Rome Braves | — | 236 | 175 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 61 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 442 | 531 | 973 | 269 | 330 | 26 | 13 | 423 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | INTL | Melbourne Aces | — | 116 | 96 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 292 | 404 | 583 | 987 | 292 | 350 | 27 | 10 | 422 | 172 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 69 | 60 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 265 | 317 | 581 | 150 | 175 | 25 | 7 | 265 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 341 | 280 | 66 | 15 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 85 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 236 | 369 | 407 | 776 | 171 | 296 | 25 | 15 | 351 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 157 | 125 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 397 | 408 | 805 | 160 | 307 | 22 | 15 | 368 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 56 | 44 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 429 | 477 | 906 | 205 | 324 | 16 | 12 | 408 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 335 | 267 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 108 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 352 | 330 | 682 | 142 | 268 | 32 | 12 | 324 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 160 | 137 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 338 | 343 | 681 | 117 | 303 | 28 | 11 | 316 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 189 | 167 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 70 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 144 | 235 | 222 | 457 | 78 | 214 | 37 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 216 | 188 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 91 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 191 | 296 | 261 | 557 | 69 | 353 | 42 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 236 | 188 | 40 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 88 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 359 | 457 | 817 | 245 | 267 | 37 | 8 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 69 | 61 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 235 | 246 | 481 | 98 | 172 | 32 | 6 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 341 | 298 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 126 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 181 | 280 | 312 | 592 | 131 | 270 | 37 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 157 | 132 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 327 | 326 | 653 | 121 | 269 | 28 | 10 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 56 | 47 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 357 | 404 | 761 | 170 | 283 | 23 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 335 | 280 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 132 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 284 | 239 | 523 | 96 | 236 | 39 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 160 | 143 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 287 | 287 | 574 | 84 | 301 | 32 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 189 | 167 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 70 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 144 | 235 | 222 | 457 | 78 | 227 | 37 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK RAW | Danville Braves | — | 189 | 162 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 216 | 321 | 340 | 660 | 123 | 286 | 26 | 7 | 303 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 568 | 477 | 92 | 23 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 225 | 47 | 4 | 4 | 193 | 314 | 338 | 651 | 145 | 318 | 40 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 568 | 453 | 123 | 34 | 2 | 18 | 61 | 154 | 47 | 4 | 4 | 272 | 412 | 475 | 886 | 203 | 365 | 27 | 11 | 394 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 410 | 359 | 63 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 38 | 147 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 273 | 301 | 574 | 125 | 256 | 36 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 410 | 340 | 76 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 102 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 224 | 351 | 391 | 743 | 168 | 274 | 25 | 14 | 337 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 213 | 179 | 38 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 335 | 346 | 681 | 134 | 286 | 27 | 9 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 213 | 169 | 43 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 43 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 254 | 406 | 426 | 832 | 172 | 311 | 20 | 14 | 378 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 335 | 280 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 132 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 284 | 239 | 523 | 96 | 234 | 39 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | Norfolk Tides | — | 335 | 267 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 108 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 352 | 330 | 682 | 142 | 268 | 32 | 12 | 324 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 160 | 143 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 287 | 287 | 574 | 84 | 295 | 32 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | Norfolk Tides | — | 160 | 137 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 338 | 343 | 681 | 117 | 303 | 28 | 11 | 316 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 189 | 167 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 70 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 144 | 235 | 222 | 457 | 78 | 214 | 37 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 568 | 479 | 92 | 23 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 225 | 47 | 4 | 4 | 192 | 314 | 336 | 650 | 144 | 308 | 40 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 410 | 359 | 63 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 38 | 147 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 273 | 301 | 574 | 125 | 254 | 36 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 213 | 178 | 38 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 335 | 348 | 683 | 135 | 273 | 27 | 9 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 335 | 277 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 132 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 144 | 284 | 242 | 525 | 97 | 236 | 39 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 160 | 142 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 287 | 289 | 576 | 85 | 301 | 32 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1875 | 1605 | 286 | 63 | 2 | 41 | 142 | 683 | 115 | 5 | 9 | 178 | 292 | 297 | 588 | 118 | 274 | 36 | 8 | 268 | 68 | -72 | -3 | +0 | +33 | +41 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 556 | 99 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 49 | 237 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 178 | 291 | 297 | 588 | 119 | 275 | 36 | 8 | 268 | 68 | -25 | -1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 160 PAwOBA .308 → .264 (−45)K% 27.5% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.50% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.62% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 3.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.73% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×1.049 | ×1.003 | 25.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.049 | ×1.003 | 3.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.130 | ×0.970 | ×1.049 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.30% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.11% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .308 → .264; ISO .117 → .087; BABIP .303 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 335 PAwOBA .316 → .249 (−68)K% 32.2% → 39.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.24% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.94% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.36% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 8.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.13% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 18.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.03% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 4.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.29% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.44% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .316 → .249; ISO .142 → .097; BABIP .268 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABowie Baysox · 157 PAwOBA .361 → .292 (−69)K% 21.7% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.66% | ÷0.940 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.65% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 10.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.10% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 4.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.88% | ÷1.031 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 18.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.79% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 7.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.116 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.40% | ÷0.987 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.52% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 123, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .361 → .292; ISO .160 → .129; BABIP .307 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Frederick Keys · 56 PAwOBA .398 → .317 (−82)K% 16.1% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.07% | ÷1.001 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.111 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 7.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.93% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 7.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.008 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 13.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 14.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.135 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 2.24% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 102, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 100, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .398 → .317; ISO .205 → .169; BABIP .324 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Florida Fire Frogs · 341 PAwOBA .340 → .271 (−69)K% 24.9% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.93% | ÷0.960 | ×1.420 | — | — | 36.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.78% | ÷1.017 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 10.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.51% | ÷0.949 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 19.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.037 | ×0.960 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 6.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.810 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.64% | ÷0.974 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 5.09% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 105, K 92, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .340 → .271; ISO .171 → .138; BABIP .296 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AABowie Baysox · 69 PAwOBA .258 → .213 (−45)K% 24.6% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.64% | ÷0.960 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.25% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 3.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.28% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 16.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.860 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 5.27% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .258 → .213; ISO .150 → .108; BABIP .175 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ARome Braves · 236 PAwOBA .419 → .336 (−83)K% 25.8% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.85% | ÷0.935 | ×1.340 | — | — | 37.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.29% | ÷1.075 | ×0.660 | — | — | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 10.59% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 8.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.54% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 14.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.16% | ÷1.066 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | — | 9.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.067 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | — | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.77% | ÷0.753 | ×0.820 | — | — | 9.55% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 51, 1B 105, 2B 113, 3B 113, K 87, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .419 → .336; ISO .269 → .253; BABIP .330 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Florida Fire Frogs · 216 PAwOBA .338 → .251 (−86)K% 28.7% → 42.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.70% | ÷0.963 | ×1.420 | — | — | 42.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.87% | ÷1.091 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 5.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.41% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 6.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷0.978 | ×0.920 | ×0.952 | ×1.012 | 26.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.148 | ×0.960 | ×0.952 | ×1.012 | 8.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.952 | ×1.012 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.929 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.80% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 96, 2B 130, 3B 130, K 93, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .338 → .251; ISO .093 → .062; BABIP .403 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).