Owen Caissie
RF Miami Marlins| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AAACHC | 549 | .278/.377/.472 | 19 | 11 | 91 | — | .234/.313/.377 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAACHC | 433 | .286/.387/.551 | 22 | 5 | 103 | — | .241/.320/.420 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLBCHC | 27 | .192/.222/.346 | 1 | 0 | 57 | -0.5 | |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBMIA | 330 | .220/.295/.412 | 14 | 5 | 102 | 0.5 | |
| 2027PROJ | 25 | MLBMIA | 272 | .213/.290/.386 | 10 | 5 | 97 | 0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ82% MLB | 26 | MLBMIA | 258 | .215/.292/.394 | 10 | 4 | 99 | 0.4 | |
| 2029PROJ82% MLB | 27 | MLBMIA | 265 | .213/.291/.391 | 10 | 4 | 98 | 0.4 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 90 | 73 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 371 | 329 | 700 | 96 | 356 | 31 | 18 | 325 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 136 | 109 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 349 | 478 | 596 | 1.074 | 248 | 500 | 29 | 19 | 468 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 433 | 378 | 96 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 50 | 124 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 254 | 349 | 402 | 751 | 148 | 350 | 29 | 12 | 340 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 63 | 59 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 220 | 270 | 356 | 626 | 136 | 353 | 38 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 528 | 439 | 127 | 31 | 2 | 22 | 76 | 164 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 289 | 402 | 519 | 922 | 230 | 407 | 31 | 14 | 402 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 549 | 472 | 131 | 29 | 3 | 19 | 71 | 156 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 278 | 377 | 472 | 849 | 195 | 375 | 28 | 13 | 376 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | — | 27 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 222 | 346 | 568 | 154 | 286 | 41 | 4 | 251 | 57 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -5 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 433 | 370 | 106 | 28 | 2 | 22 | 57 | 121 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 286 | 387 | 551 | 939 | 265 | 367 | 28 | 13 | 408 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 330 | 291 | 64 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 123 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 220 | 295 | 412 | 707 | 192 | 309 | 37 | 8 | 307 | 102 | +1 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +7 | 0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 357 | 317 | 69 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 28 | 134 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 218 | 289 | 407 | 696 | 189 | 307 | 38 | 8 | 303 | 91 | -4 | +1 | +1 | -8 | +8 | -0.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 90 | 77 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 292 | 260 | 552 | 78 | 337 | 44 | 13 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 136 | 120 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 233 | 324 | 392 | 715 | 158 | 393 | 42 | 11 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 433 | 390 | 82 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 157 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 210 | 289 | 326 | 614 | 115 | 325 | 36 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 528 | 464 | 119 | 29 | 2 | 17 | 51 | 199 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 256 | 339 | 438 | 777 | 181 | 390 | 38 | 10 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 549 | 491 | 115 | 25 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 188 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 234 | 313 | 377 | 689 | 143 | 346 | 34 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Chicago Cubs | — | 27 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 222 | 346 | 568 | 154 | 286 | 41 | 4 | 252 | 57 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -5 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 433 | 386 | 93 | 23 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 147 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 241 | 320 | 420 | 740 | 179 | 343 | 34 | 9 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 330 | 291 | 67 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 27 | 123 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 230 | 304 | 436 | 741 | 206 | 309 | 37 | 8 | 319 | 102 | +1 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 197 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 96 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 213 | 311 | 340 | 651 | 127 | 381 | 42 | 12 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 226 | 182 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 42 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 302 | 436 | 489 | 925 | 187 | 440 | 30 | 19 | 411 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 448 | 94 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 180 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 210 | 286 | 324 | 610 | 114 | 326 | 36 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 496 | 437 | 109 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 54 | 148 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 249 | 339 | 396 | 735 | 146 | 350 | 30 | 11 | 332 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 528 | 464 | 119 | 29 | 2 | 17 | 51 | 199 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 256 | 339 | 438 | 777 | 181 | 403 | 38 | 10 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA RAW | Tennessee Smokies | — | 528 | 439 | 127 | 31 | 2 | 22 | 76 | 164 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 289 | 402 | 519 | 922 | 230 | 407 | 31 | 14 | 402 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 549 | 491 | 115 | 25 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 188 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 234 | 313 | 377 | 689 | 143 | 349 | 34 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 549 | 472 | 131 | 29 | 3 | 19 | 71 | 156 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 278 | 377 | 472 | 849 | 195 | 375 | 28 | 13 | 376 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 412 | 98 | 24 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 158 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 238 | 314 | 415 | 729 | 177 | 344 | 34 | 9 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 460 | 396 | 111 | 29 | 2 | 23 | 58 | 132 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 280 | 378 | 538 | 916 | 258 | 362 | 29 | 13 | 399 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 330 | 291 | 67 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 27 | 123 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 230 | 304 | 436 | 741 | 206 | 323 | 37 | 8 | 319 | 102 | +1 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB RAW | Miami Marlins | — | 330 | 291 | 64 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 123 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 220 | 295 | 412 | 707 | 192 | 309 | 37 | 8 | 307 | 102 | +1 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 196 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 96 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 214 | 311 | 342 | 653 | 128 | 371 | 42 | 12 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 445 | 94 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 180 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 211 | 286 | 326 | 612 | 115 | 325 | 36 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 528 | 465 | 119 | 29 | 2 | 17 | 51 | 199 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 256 | 339 | 437 | 776 | 181 | 390 | 38 | 10 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 549 | 488 | 115 | 25 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 188 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 236 | 313 | 379 | 692 | 143 | 346 | 34 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 411 | 98 | 24 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 158 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 238 | 314 | 416 | 730 | 178 | 340 | 34 | 9 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 330 | 296 | 67 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 27 | 123 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 226 | 304 | 429 | 733 | 203 | 309 | 37 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 549 | 488 | 115 | 25 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 188 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 236 | 313 | 379 | 692 | 143 | 346 | 34 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 411 | 98 | 24 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 158 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 238 | 314 | 416 | 730 | 178 | 340 | 34 | 9 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 330 | 296 | 67 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 27 | 123 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 226 | 304 | 429 | 733 | 203 | 309 | 37 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIA | 100% | 380 | 340 | 75 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 33 | 123 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 221 | 298 | 404 | 702 | 183 | 293 | 32 | 9 | 311 | 97 | -2 | +1 | +1 | -4 | +8 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIA | 100% | 272 | 243 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 88 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 290 | 386 | 676 | 173 | 282 | 32 | 9 | 301 | 97 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIA | 82% | 315 | 282 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 27 | 102 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 223 | 299 | 414 | 713 | 191 | 293 | 32 | 9 | 315 | 99 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIA | 82% | 323 | 289 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 105 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 222 | 298 | 411 | 709 | 189 | 292 | 33 | 9 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIA | 82% | 324 | 290 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 106 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 296 | 405 | 701 | 186 | 291 | 33 | 9 | 310 | 96 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIA | 82% | 314 | 281 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 27 | 104 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 293 | 398 | 691 | 182 | 289 | 33 | 9 | 306 | 93 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIA | 82% | 305 | 273 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 26 | 102 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 289 | 390 | 678 | 177 | 286 | 33 | 9 | 301 | 90 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIA | 82% | 258 | 231 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 83 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 292 | 394 | 686 | 180 | 282 | 32 | 9 | 305 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIA | 82% | 265 | 237 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 86 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 291 | 391 | 682 | 178 | 282 | 32 | 9 | 303 | 98 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIA | 82% | 266 | 238 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 87 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 289 | 386 | 675 | 175 | 280 | 33 | 9 | 300 | 96 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIA | 82% | 257 | 230 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 85 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 286 | 380 | 665 | 171 | 278 | 33 | 9 | 296 | 93 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIA | 82% | 250 | 225 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 83 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 282 | 372 | 653 | 166 | 275 | 33 | 8 | 291 | 90 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1653 | 1478 | 314 | 62 | 3 | 64 | 139 | 558 | 18 | 19 | 5 | 212 | 288 | 388 | 676 | 176 | 288 | 34 | 8 | 300 | 94 | -11 | +2 | +1 | -22 | +36 | 0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 123 | 24 | 1 | 25 | 55 | 219 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 212 | 288 | 386 | 673 | 174 | 287 | 34 | 8 | 300 | 94 | -4 | +1 | +0 | -9 | +14 | 0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4442 | 3961 | 901 | 194 | 15 | 150 | 402 | 1551 | 43 | 67 | 30 | 227 | 305 | 398 | 703 | 170 | 328 | 35 | 9 | 308 | 94 | -13 | +3 | +2 | -28 | +48 | 1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 131 | 28 | 2 | 22 | 59 | 227 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 226 | 304 | 395 | 699 | 169 | 325 | 35 | 9 | 308 | 94 | -4 | +1 | +1 | -8 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 433 PAwOBA .399 → .320 (−78)K% 27.9% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.94% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.16% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.69% | ÷0.949 | ×0.930 | ×0.998 | ×1.050 | 22.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.24% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×0.998 | ×1.050 | 9.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷0.939 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | ×1.050 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.84% | ÷1.125 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 5.77% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .399 → .320; ISO .265 → .186; BABIP .367 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 549 PAwOBA .366 → .303 (−63)K% 28.4% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.42% | ÷0.998 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.39% | ÷0.949 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.32% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×0.979 | ×1.050 | 24.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.18% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×1.050 | 8.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×1.050 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.01% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.09% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .366 → .303; ISO .195 → .144; BABIP .375 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AATennessee Smokies · 528 PAwOBA .395 → .334 (−61)K% 31.1% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.06% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.39% | ÷1.059 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 9.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.18% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×1.050 | 26.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.27% | ÷1.023 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×1.050 | 10.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷0.966 | ×0.880 | ×1.005 | ×1.050 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.082 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 6.21% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 95, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .395 → .334; ISO .230 → .190; BABIP .407 → .390. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+South Bend Cubs · 433 PAwOBA .331 → .272 (−59)K% 28.6% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.64% | ÷1.003 | ×1.270 | — | — | 36.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.55% | ÷0.986 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 8.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.80% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×1.042 | 23.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.27% | ÷1.020 | ×0.810 | ×1.018 | ×1.042 | 6.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.39% | ÷1.097 | ×0.850 | ×1.018 | ×1.042 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.33% | ÷0.938 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 3.85% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 119, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .331 → .272; ISO .148 → .119; BABIP .350 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Cubs · 136 PAwOBA .457 → .310 (−146)K% 28.7% → 41.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.68% | ÷0.992 | ×1.440 | — | — | 41.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.12% | ÷1.071 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 11.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.29% | ÷1.002 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 28.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 7.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.014 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 6.64% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 100, 2B 89, 3B 89, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .457 → .310; ISO .248 → .173; BABIP .500 → .393. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 90 PAwOBA .321 → .251 (−70)K% 31.1% → 44.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.11% | ÷0.961 | ×1.360 | — | — | 44.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.78% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 13.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 25.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 8.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.977 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.90% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 95, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .321 → .251; ISO .096 → .074; BABIP .356 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .