Owen Caissie — OGILVIE

Owen CaissieRF Miami Marlins

Age 24 L/R 6'4" / 190 lbs MLB HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.198 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION330 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†101

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP310

ISO172

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 40 / POW 66

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

901.8%

xAVG

100.209

POWER66

Barrel%

9014.1

Avg EV

7590.8

Bat Spd

8575.0

EYE53

Chase%

903.3%

SPEED44

Sprint

7128.3

DEFENSE49

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%32%·32% over 84 PA (45d) · proj 32%

BB%10%▲11% over 84 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.152▼.110 over 73 AB (60d) · proj .172

HR/BB5.3%·4.3% over 47 BBE (60d) · proj 5.8%

BABIP.314▼.222 over 45 BIP (60d) · proj .319

SLASH.227/.307/.379▼proj .234/.307/.405

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.198 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.3	$8M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.1	$6M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$9M	+1.0	$5M	+$0.4M
Totals		$21M		$37M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	19	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	90	73	17	4	0	1	16	28	0	0	0	233	371	329	700	96	356	31	18	325	106	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2021	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	136	109	38	7	1	6	26	39	1	1	2	349	478	596	1.074	248	500	29	19	468	203	+17	-1	—	—	+3	1.9
2022	20	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	433	378	96	21	1	11	50	124	5	11	6	254	349	402	751	148	350	29	12	340	116	+8	-0	—	—	+9	1.8
2022	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	63	59	13	5	0	1	4	24	0	3	0	220	270	356	626	136	353	38	6	280	76	-2	+1	—	—	+1	0.0
2023	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	528	439	127	31	2	22	76	164	7	7	9	289	402	519	922	230	407	31	14	402	158	+36	-2	—	—	+11	4.7
2024	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	549	472	131	29	3	19	71	156	4	11	2	278	377	472	849	195	375	28	13	376	141	+27	+1	—	—	+12	4.1
2025	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	27	26	5	1	0	1	1	11	0	0	0	192	222	346	568	154	286	41	4	251	56	-1	+0	+1	-5	+1	-0.5
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	433	370	106	28	2	22	57	121	4	5	4	286	387	551	939	265	367	28	13	408	162	+32	-1	—	—	+9	4.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	27	26	5	1	0	1	1	11	0	0	0	192	222	346	568	154	286	41	4	251	56	-1	+0	+1	-5	+1	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	90	78	14	3	0	1	11	40	0	0	0	179	281	256	537	77	322	44	12	243	51	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	136	120	28	5	1	4	15	57	1	1	2	233	324	392	715	158	390	42	11	308	95	-1	-1	—	—	+3	0.2
2022	20	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	433	392	76	15	1	9	36	167	5	11	6	194	270	306	576	112	311	39	8	256	59	-21	-0	—	—	+9	-1.2
2023	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	528	465	113	26	2	16	50	199	7	7	9	243	326	411	736	168	371	38	9	319	102	+1	-2	—	—	+11	1.1
2024	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	549	494	110	24	3	12	49	188	4	11	2	223	298	356	654	134	329	34	9	290	82	-11	+1	—	—	+12	0.2
2025	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	27	26	5	1	0	1	1	11	0	0	0	192	222	346	568	154	286	41	4	251	56	-1	+0	+1	-5	+1	-0.5
2025	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	433	388	89	22	2	13	39	147	4	5	4	229	306	397	703	168	325	34	9	307	94	-3	-1	—	—	+9	0.6
2021	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	226	197	41	8	1	5	27	96	1	1	2	208	307	335	642	127	371	42	12	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	226	182	55	11	1	7	42	67	1	1	2	302	436	489	925	187	440	30	19	411	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	496	450	88	18	1	10	41	191	5	14	6	196	270	307	577	111	313	39	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	496	437	109	26	1	12	54	148	5	14	6	249	339	396	735	146	350	30	11	332	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	528	465	113	26	2	16	50	199	7	7	9	243	326	411	736	168	380	38	9	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	—	528	439	127	31	2	22	76	164	7	7	9	289	402	519	922	230	407	31	14	402	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	549	494	110	24	3	12	49	188	4	11	2	223	298	356	654	134	331	34	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	—	549	472	131	29	3	19	71	156	4	11	2	278	377	472	849	195	375	28	13	376	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	460	414	94	23	2	14	40	158	4	5	4	227	301	394	695	167	328	34	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	460	396	111	29	2	23	58	132	4	5	4	280	378	538	916	258	362	29	13	399	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	226	196	41	8	1	5	27	96	1	1	2	209	307	337	643	128	363	42	12	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	496	447	88	18	1	10	41	191	5	14	6	197	270	309	579	112	311	39	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	528	466	113	26	2	16	50	199	7	7	9	242	326	410	736	167	371	38	9	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	549	491	110	24	3	12	49	188	4	11	2	224	298	358	656	134	329	34	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	460	413	94	23	2	14	40	158	4	5	4	228	301	395	696	167	323	34	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	528	466	113	26	2	16	50	199	7	7	9	242	326	410	736	167	371	38	9	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	549	491	110	24	3	12	49	188	4	11	2	224	298	358	656	134	329	34	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	460	413	94	23	2	14	40	158	4	5	4	228	301	395	696	167	323	34	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	MIA	—	330	291	67	15	0	15	27	123	4	5	1	230	304	436	741	206	323	37	8	314	99	-0	+1	-0	-4	+7	0.3
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	MIA	—	330	291	64	14	0	14	27	123	4	5	1	220	295	412	707	192	309	37	8	307	99	-0	+1	-0	-4	+7	0.3
YTD	24	MLB RAW	MIA	—	330	291	64	14	0	14	27	123	4	5	1	220	295	412	707	192	309	37	8	307	94	-2	+1	-0	-4	+7	0.2
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIA	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		321	33	11	317	101	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	MIA	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		310	33	11	300	101	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	24	MLB A+C	MIA	—	339	299	65	14	0	14	28	126	4	5	1	217	293	405	698	187	305	37	8	307	99	-0	+1	-0	-4	+7	0.4
TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIA	—	339	299	68	15	0	15	28	126	4	5	1	227	302	428	730	201	319	37	8	314	99	-0	+1	-0	-4	+7	0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	92%	581	520	119	26	1	23	50	198	6	9	2	229	304	415	719	187	320	34	9	322	104	+3	+1	+2	-6	+13	1.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	92%	569	508	118	25	1	24	50	194	6	9	2	232	309	427	736	195	320	34	9	327	107	+5	+1	+2	-6	+12	1.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	92%	558	498	116	25	1	24	49	191	6	8	2	233	309	432	741	199	320	34	9	327	107	+5	+1	+2	-6	+12	1.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	92%	547	487	112	24	1	23	49	188	6	8	2	230	308	425	733	195	319	34	9	325	106	+4	+1	+1	-6	+12	1.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	92%	536	477	109	23	1	23	48	185	6	7	1	229	307	426	733	197	316	35	9	322	104	+3	+1	+1	-6	+12	1.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIA	92%	525	467	107	23	1	22	47	183	6	6	1	229	308	424	732	195	314	35	9	319	102	+1	+1	-0	-6	+11	0.8
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIA	92%	515	459	103	22	1	21	46	181	5	5	1	224	302	414	716	190	311	35	9	315	99	-0	+1	-1	-6	+11	0.5
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIA	92%	504	449	99	21	1	20	45	179	5	4	1	220	299	405	704	185	306	36	9	309	95	-3	+0	-2	-5	+11	0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	92%	535	478	107	22	1	21	46	183	6	8	2	224	300	406	706	182	309	34	9	304	104	+3	+1	+2	-6	+12	1.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	92%	523	466	105	22	1	21	46	179	6	8	2	225	303	412	715	187	310	34	9	309	107	+5	+1	+2	-6	+11	1.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	92%	513	457	103	21	1	21	45	176	6	8	2	225	303	414	717	188	309	34	9	309	107	+4	+1	+2	-5	+11	1.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	92%	503	448	100	21	1	20	45	173	5	7	2	223	301	408	710	185	308	34	9	308	106	+4	+1	+1	-5	+11	1.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	92%	493	441	98	20	1	20	44	170	5	7	1	222	300	408	708	186	305	34	9	305	104	+3	+1	+1	-5	+11	1.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIA	92%	483	432	94	19	1	19	43	168	5	6	1	218	296	398	694	181	303	35	9	302	102	+1	+1	-0	-5	+10	0.7
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIA	92%	474	424	91	19	1	18	42	166	5	5	1	215	293	392	685	177	300	35	9	298	99	-0	+1	-1	-5	+10	0.5
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIA	92%	464	415	88	18	1	17	41	165	5	4	1	212	291	383	674	171	296	36	9	292	95	-3	+0	-2	-5	+10	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4024	3595	792	163	8	158	354	1394	43	53	12	220	298	402	700	182	307	35	9	303	96	+15	+6	+6	-48	+87	6.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	128	26	1	26	57	225	7	9	2	220	298	403	700	182	306	35	9	303	96	+2	+1	+1	-8	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6603	5893	1330	288	17	237	592	2334	67	94	35	226	304	401	705	175	326	35	9	311	96	+16	+6	+7	-51	+95	7.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	131	28	2	23	58	230	7	9	3	226	304	400	704	174	327	35	9	311	96	+2	+1	+1	-8	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	9.9	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
/162	664	32	7	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
#2Adam Duvalllast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,723 PA	5.6	3,723	195	22	227	287	459	-31	+11	11.0	11.8
/162	664	35	4	-5.5	+2.0	2.0	pk7: 13
#3Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#4Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	8.5	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
/162	664	19	6	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	7.0	4,668	192	62	229	302	421	-50	-1	9.6	8.9
/162	664	27	9	-7.1	-0.1	1.4	pk7: 8
#5Eddie Rosariolast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,347 PA	6.5	4,347	169	65	262	298	450	-47	-39	7.0	8.7
/162	664	26	10	-7.1	-6.0	1.1	pk7: 10
#6Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	5.2	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
/162	664	31	2	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Owen Caissie (OGILVIE)	24	36→40	63→66	45→44	53	228/302/409	182	321	13	5	34%	9%	101	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jack Suwinski 2023 · MLB	25	39→43	56→60	45→50	46	213/294/402	190	286	25	8	34%	10%	96	+1.0	210/300/400	190	282	25	13	33%	11%	98	+1.2	199/297/385	185	266	24	15	33%	11%	90	+0.5
●Matt Wallner 2023 · MLB	25	45→47	54→60	46→45	43	218/305/399	181	337	21	7	39%	10%	99	+1.2	226/319/431	205	319	25	6	35%	9%	112	+2.2	220/319/443	223	296	28	5	33%	10%	112	+1.9
✕Nick Pratto 2023 · MLB	24	37→45	56→55	50	47	198/292/390	192	278	23	9	36%	10%	93	+0.8	195/269/326	131	298	15	9	37%	8%	69	-0.9	181/251/290	109	279	11	9	37%	8%	51	-1.7
●Pedro Álvarez 2011 · MLB	24	47	55→65	42→45	45	241/304/433	192	317	23	4	31%	8%	105	+1.7	234/303/428	194	307	25	3	31%	9%	105	+1.7	241/313/470	229	291	33	4	29%	9%	111	+2.0
✕MJ Melendez 2023 · MLB	24	41→48	57→60	41→50	53	222/307/419	197	259	25	5	26%	11%	104	+1.6	219/293/396	177	279	20	8	28%	9%	93	+0.8	209/278/382	173	271	19	10	29%	8%	82	+0.0
●Christopher Morel 2023 · MLB	24	43→46	53→60	49→50	42	221/285/395	175	301	21	15	33%	8%	91	+0.6	225/299/424	199	289	26	11	31%	9%	103	+1.5	218/297/418	200	274	27	10	30%	9%	97	+0.9
●Jo Adell 2023 · MLB	24	42→46	55→65	48→50	36	220/269/404	184	308	23	10	36%	5%	86	+0.3	218/282/426	208	276	28	12	32%	7%	97	+1.1	226/289/423	196	264	28	9	26%	6%	97	+1.0
✕Jesús Sánchez 2022 · MLB	24	48→52	57→60	46→50	43	252/310/447	194	314	25	4	28%	7%	112	+2.2	251/316/438	187	317	22	8	27%	8%	112	+2.2	249/317/430	181	314	21	10	26%	8%	107	+1.5
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2015 · MLB	24	47→53	56→60	42→45	43	245/306/441	196	313	24	4	29%	7%	109	+2.0	218/280/389	171	285	22	3	31%	7%	87	+0.4	216/295/403	187	291	24	3	33%	8%	94	+0.5
✕Jarred Kelenic 2023 · MLB	24	41→51	54→60	49→50	45	217/280/402	185	266	21	13	27%	7%	91	+0.6	226/287/381	155	309	17	13	30%	8%	88	+0.4	218/279/351	133	306	14	13	32%	8%	73	-0.5
✕AJ Reed 2018 · MLB	25	41→51	56→60	46→30	45	223/293/409	187	289	25	2	32%	9%	97	+1.1	199/267/365	166	272	22	3	34%	8%	77	-0.3	180/249/340	160	240	21	0	34%	7%	64	-0.9
●Michael Busch 2023 · AAA	25	43→49	53→60	42→40	44	222/296/395	174	303	21	4	33%	8%	95	+0.9	241/323/442	201	304	25	5	28%	10%	115	+2.4	247/341/452	205	298	25	3	25%	11%	121	+2.9
✕Brandon Wood 2009 · MLB	24	40→45	55→65	49→50	40	219/272/400	181	278	24	11	31%	6%	86	+0.3	207/254/353	146	262	19	5	28%	5%	69	-0.9	196/241/325	129	246	17	1	28%	5%	55	-1.1
✕Enmanuel Valdez 2023 · AAA	24	43→46	54→55	46→45	44	227/283/406	178	277	23	7	27%	7%	92	+0.7	220/286/381	161	269	19	8	25%	8%	87	+0.4	208/281/363	155	248	19	8	24%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Ian Stewart 2009 · MLB	24	48→52	52→60	49→45	45	243/310/420	177	312	19	8	28%	8%	105	+1.7	230/312/421	191	291	23	8	28%	10%	106	+1.8	218/305/403	186	271	24	8	28%	10%	94	+0.6
✕Jerry Sands 2012 · MLB	24	43→46	55→60	48→45	46	229/293/417	188	276	23	7	26%	8%	99	+1.2	212/278/356	144	280	17	4	29%	8%	78	-0.3	232/294/381	149	292	15	3	25%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Andrew Lambo 2014 · MLB	25	43→49	55→60	47→45	40	227/278/410	183	293	23	6	31%	6%	91	+0.7	232/280/396	164	292	18	6	26%	6%	88	+0.4	236/282/382	146	287	14	4	23%	6%	83	+0.1
✕Greg Bird 2017 · MLB	24	45→48	52→55	45→30	47	234/302/403	169	287	19	4	26%	8%	98	+1.2	215/301/391	176	257	21	3	24%	10%	95	+1.0	193/280/367	174	228	22	0	26%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Keston Hiura 2022 · MLB	25	44→54	54→60	48→50	41	222/303/402	180	322	22	10	36%	8%	99	+1.3	230/309/422	192	327	27	6	36%	8%	106	+1.8	229/304/431	202	318	31	3	36%	7%	104	+1.0
●Chris Carter 2011 · MLB	24	43→53	57→65	45	47	229/303/427	199	287	25	5	29%	9%	105	+1.7	225/305/425	200	296	26	5	32%	10%	105	+1.7	226/317/463	237	289	33	4	33%	11%	114	+2.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps