Owen Caissie — OGILVIE

Owen CaissieRF Miami Marlins

Age 24 L/R 6'4" / 190 lbs MLB HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.198 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION246 act + 164 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†104

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .301 / .395

PA164

HR6

K%35

BB%9

BABIP318

ISO170

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 66

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

902.4%

xwOBA

440.301

POWER66

Barrel%

9016.0

Avg EV

8391.4

Bat Spd

8575.0

EYE53

Chase%

904.4%

SPEED43

Sprint

6828.2

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.198 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$13M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$14M	+$13M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+2.0	$13M	+$10M
2030	Arb-2	$7M	+1.8	$11M	+$6M
2031	Arb-3	$9M	+1.5	$8M	+$3M
Totals		$22M		$60M	+$45M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	19	ROK	2 teams	—	226	198	41	8	1	5	26	98	1	1	2	207	302	333	636	126	375	43	12	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	2 teams	—	226	182	55	11	1	7	42	67	1	1	2	302	436	489	925	187	440	30	19	411	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	2 teams	—	496	449	87	17	1	11	42	191	5	14	6	194	270	310	580	116	308	39	8	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	2 teams	—	496	437	109	26	1	12	54	148	5	14	6	249	339	396	735	146	350	30	11	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	528	468	113	25	2	17	47	209	7	7	9	241	320	412	732	171	389	40	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	528	439	127	31	2	22	76	164	7	7	9	289	402	519	922	230	407	31	14	402	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	549	491	112	25	3	13	52	188	4	11	2	228	307	371	678	143	339	34	9	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	549	472	131	29	3	19	71	156	4	11	2	278	377	472	849	195	375	28	13	376	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	2 teams	—	460	414	96	22	2	15	40	160	4	5	4	232	306	403	709	171	336	35	9	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	2 teams	—	460	396	111	29	2	23	58	132	4	5	4	280	378	538	916	258	362	29	13	399	163	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	MLB	MIA	—	246	218	52	12	0	12	18	96	3	4	1	239	305	459	764	220	342	39	7	324	106	+2	+0	-0	-3	+7	0.6
YTD	24	MLB	MIA	—	246	218	52	12	0	12	18	96	3	4	1	239	305	459	764	220	342	39	7	327	109	+2	+0	-0	-3	+7	0.7
ROS	24	MLB	MIA	100%	164	147	33	7	0	6	14	57	2	3	1	224	301	395	695	170	329	35	9	321	104	+1	+0	+0	-2	+5	0.4
ROS	24	MLB	MIA	100%	164	147	33	7	0	6	14	57	2	3	1	224	301	395	695	170	323	35	9	308	94	-1	+0	+0	-2	+5	0.2
FULL	24	MLB	MIA	—	410	365	85	19	0	18	32	153	5	7	2	233	303	433	736	200	332	37	8	317	101	+1	+1	-0	-4	+12	0.8
TOT	24	MLB	MIA	—	410	365	85	19	0	18	32	153	5	7	2	233	303	433	736	200	332	37	8	323	105	+2	+1	-0	-4	+12	1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	MIA	92%	581	522	123	26	2	24	48	201	6	9	2	236	307	431	738	195	329	35	8	325	107	+5	+1	+1	-6	+16	1.7
2028	26	MLB	MIA	92%	569	510	122	26	2	25	48	197	6	9	2	239	312	445	757	206	330	35	8	330	111	+7	+1	+1	-6	+16	1.9
2029	27	MLB	MIA	92%	558	499	119	25	2	24	48	194	6	9	2	238	313	441	754	202	330	35	9	330	111	+7	+1	+1	-6	+16	1.9
2030	28	MLB	MIA	92%	547	489	115	24	1	24	47	191	6	8	2	235	310	436	746	200	329	35	9	329	110	+6	+1	+0	-6	+15	1.7
2031	29	MLB	MIA	92%	536	478	112	24	1	23	47	188	6	7	2	234	311	433	744	199	327	35	9	327	108	+5	+1	-0	-6	+15	1.5
2032	30	MLB	MIA	92%	525	469	109	23	1	22	46	185	5	6	1	232	308	426	734	194	325	35	9	324	106	+3	+1	-1	-6	+15	1.3
2033	31	MLB	MIA	92%	515	460	105	22	1	21	45	183	5	5	1	228	304	417	721	189	322	36	9	319	102	+1	+1	-2	-6	+15	0.9
2034	32	MLB	MIA	92%	504	450	101	21	1	20	44	181	5	4	1	224	301	409	709	184	317	36	9	313	98	-1	+0	-3	-5	+14	0.6
2035	33	MLB	MIA	92%	435	391	85	17	1	17	37	159	4	3	1	217	292	396	688	179	312	37	9	305	92	-4	+0	-3	-5	+12	0.0
2036	34	MLB	MIA	88%	368	331	70	14	1	14	31	137	3	2	0	211	285	387	672	175	304	37	8	296	85	-6	+0	-4	-4	+10	-0.4
2027	25	MLB	MIA	92%	535	479	112	24	2	21	45	185	6	8	2	234	308	424	731	190	323	35	8	312	97	-2	+1	+1	-6	+15	1.0
2028	26	MLB	MIA	92%	523	468	110	23	2	22	44	181	6	8	2	235	309	434	743	199	324	35	8	317	101	+0	+1	+1	-6	+15	1.2
2029	27	MLB	MIA	92%	513	459	107	23	1	22	44	178	5	8	2	233	307	431	738	198	323	35	9	317	101	+0	+1	+1	-5	+15	1.1
2030	28	MLB	MIA	92%	503	450	104	22	1	21	43	175	5	7	2	231	305	424	730	193	322	35	9	316	100	-0	+1	+0	-5	+14	1.0
2031	29	MLB	MIA	92%	493	442	101	21	1	21	43	173	5	7	2	229	304	423	727	195	321	35	9	314	98	-1	+1	-0	-5	+14	0.8
2032	30	MLB	MIA	92%	483	433	99	21	1	20	42	170	5	6	1	229	304	420	724	192	319	35	9	311	96	-2	+1	-1	-5	+14	0.6
2033	31	MLB	MIA	92%	474	425	95	20	1	19	41	169	5	5	1	224	299	409	709	186	316	36	9	307	93	-4	+1	-2	-5	+13	0.3
2034	32	MLB	MIA	92%	464	416	91	19	1	18	40	167	5	4	1	219	295	399	694	180	311	36	9	301	88	-6	+0	-2	-5	+13	0.0
2035	33	MLB	MIA	92%	400	359	76	15	1	15	34	146	4	3	1	212	287	384	672	173	306	36	8	293	83	-8	+0	-3	-4	+11	-0.4
2036	34	MLB	MIA	88%	322	288	60	12	0	12	28	120	3	2	0	208	285	375	660	167	298	37	9	284	76	-9	+0	-4	-3	+9	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4901	4392	993	208	11	198	419	1732	51	61	15	226	301	414	715	188	320	35	9	308	94	-33	+6	-8	-57	+139	4.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	131	28	1	26	56	230	7	8	2	225	301	411	711	186	319	35	9	308	94	-4	+1	-1	-8	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	7561	6766	1543	326	22	281	662	2719	75	103	38	228	304	407	711	179	332	36	9	313	98	-18	+5	-9	-81	+214	11.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	133	28	2	24	57	234	6	9	3	229	304	407	711	179	333	36	9	313	98	-2	+1	-1	-7	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	19	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	90	73	17	4	0	1	16	28	0	0	0	233	371	329	700	96	356	31	18	325	107	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2021	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	136	109	38	7	1	6	26	39	1	1	2	349	478	596	1.074	248	500	29	19	468	216	+18	-1	—	—	+4	2.2
2022	20	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	433	378	96	21	1	11	50	124	5	11	6	254	349	402	751	148	350	29	12	340	118	+9	-0	—	—	+12	2.1
2022	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	63	59	13	5	0	1	4	24	0	3	0	220	270	356	626	136	353	38	6	280	72	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.0
2023	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	528	439	127	31	2	22	76	164	7	7	9	289	402	519	922	230	407	31	14	402	166	+39	-2	—	—	+15	5.3
2024	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	549	472	131	29	3	19	71	156	4	11	2	278	377	472	849	195	375	28	13	376	146	+29	+1	—	—	+16	4.6
2025	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	27	26	5	1	0	1	1	11	0	0	0	192	222	346	568	154	286	41	4	251	50	-2	+0	+1	-5	+1	-0.5
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	433	370	106	28	2	22	57	121	4	5	4	286	387	551	939	265	367	28	13	408	170	+34	-1	—	—	+12	4.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	27	26	5	1	0	1	1	11	0	0	0	192	222	346	568	154	286	41	4	251	50	-2	+0	+1	-5	+1	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	13	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	/162	664	32	7	245	314	469	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
#2Adam Duvalllast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,723 PA	11	3,723	195	22	227	287	459	-31	+11	11.0	11.8
	/162	664	35	4	227	287	459	-5.5	+2.0	2.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	5,306	221	66	232	303	426	-57	-1	11.4	10.4
	/162	664	28	8	232	303	426	-7.1	-0.1	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	11	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	4	242	316	418	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#4Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	11	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
	/162	664	19	6	262	304	417	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11
#5Eddie Rosariolast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,347 PA	10	4,347	169	65	262	298	450	-47	-39	7.0	8.7
	/162	664	26	10	262	298	450	-7.1	-6.0	1.1	pk7: 10
#6Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	8	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
	/162	664	31	2	238	315	455	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Owen Caissie (OGILVIE)	24	34→40	62→66	44→43	53	233/303/433	200	332	18	7	37%	8%	105	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Pedro Álvarez 2011 · MLB	24	46	56→60	42→45	44	239/302/433	194	316	24	4	31%	8%	105	+2.1	232/302/422	190	306	24	3	31%	9%	103	+1.9	238/310/455	217	291	31	4	29%	9%	108	+2.1
●Matt Wallner 2023 · MLB	25	44→47	56→65	45	42	215/302/408	193	340	24	7	41%	10%	100	+1.7	225/318/437	212	317	26	6	35%	9%	115	+2.7	221/319/449	228	296	29	5	34%	9%	115	+2.4
●Jack Suwinski 2023 · MLB	25	39→42	57→60	45→50	45	211/291/406	195	286	26	8	35%	9%	95	+1.4	209/299/400	191	283	25	13	33%	11%	97	+1.5	199/296/388	189	266	25	15	34%	11%	89	+0.8
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2015 · MLB	24	47→51	58→60	42→45	42	245/306/450	205	311	26	4	30%	7%	112	+2.6	219/281/396	177	285	23	3	31%	7%	88	+0.9	215/292/414	198	292	26	3	34%	8%	95	+0.7
●Jo Adell 2023 · MLB	24	42→44	57→65	47→50	35	224/272/424	200	310	26	10	36%	5%	92	+1.2	220/283/436	216	276	30	12	32%	7%	100	+1.7	218/285/448	231	251	34	12	29%	7%	102	+1.5
✕Nick Pratto 2023 · MLB	24	36→45	58→60	50	46	200/294/408	208	280	27	9	37%	10%	97	+1.5	196/269/335	139	300	16	9	37%	8%	67	-0.5	181/252/298	117	279	13	9	37%	8%	47	-1.5
✕Andrew Lambo 2014 · MLB	25	43→49	60→65	47→45	38	232/282/444	212	306	29	6	34%	6%	101	+1.8	237/284/429	192	297	24	6	28%	6%	98	+1.6	242/289/418	176	288	19	4	23%	6%	93	+0.6
●Michael Busch 2022 · AA	24	44→49	54→60	41→40	44	222/304/400	179	317	22	4	35%	9%	99	+1.7	229/308/416	187	304	23	4	31%	9%	105	+2.1	246/334/460	214	297	27	4	26%	10%	122	+3.1
●Nolan Gorman 2023 · MLB	23	41→43	57→60	50→45	39	224/275/408	184	296	27	6	34%	6%	89	+0.9	220/293/423	203	295	29	7	34%	9%	100	+1.7	211/295/415	204	279	29	6	34%	10%	95	+1.1
●Christopher Morel 2023 · MLB	24	42→46	53→60	49→50	41	219/283/394	175	305	21	15	34%	8%	88	+0.9	225/299/428	203	289	27	11	31%	9%	104	+2.0	219/298/426	206	274	28	10	30%	9%	99	+1.4
●Kyle Stowers 2023 · MLB	25	46→56	53→65	45	41	231/297/410	179	328	21	6	35%	7%	98	+1.6	233/305/439	206	304	26	5	31%	8%	109	+2.4	248/324/474	226	317	28	3	30%	9%	122	+2.2
✕Greg Bird 2017 · MLB	24	45→50	54→55	45→30	46	236/303/416	180	291	21	4	27%	8%	102	+1.9	216/300/393	177	258	21	3	25%	10%	95	+1.4	188/274/363	176	222	22	0	27%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Joe Benson 2012 · MLB	24	46→48	55→60	49→50	43	236/307/431	196	313	22	14	31%	8%	108	+2.3	208/272/352	144	288	14	14	31%	7%	72	-0.2	207/277/319	112	282	9	13	28%	7%	64	-0.5
●MJ Melendez 2023 · MLB	24	41→49	59→60	42→50	53	226/311/438	212	261	28	5	26%	11%	111	+2.5	221/295/404	183	280	21	8	28%	9%	95	+1.4	210/280/390	179	271	20	10	29%	8%	83	+0.5
●Rowdy Tellez 2020 · MLB	25	45→50	53→65	43→45	44	237/296/413	176	287	22	5	26%	7%	98	+1.6	247/315/462	215	277	29	3	22%	8%	120	+3.1	239/317/473	234	248	33	1	20%	9%	114	+1.7
✕Zach Borenstein 2015 · AAA	25	46→55	56→60	45→50	39	240/286/432	193	308	24	8	30%	6%	99	+1.7	219/270/361	142	315	15	10	33%	6%	73	-0.1	203/257/338	135	306	13	9	36%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Enmanuel Valdez 2023 · AAA	24	41→44	56→55	46→45	43	225/280/412	187	275	25	7	28%	7%	92	+1.2	220/285/390	170	266	21	8	25%	8%	88	+0.9	208/281/371	163	244	21	8	24%	9%	79	+0.1
●Randal Grichuk 2016 · MLB	24	45→50	57→70	47→45	38	237/281/443	206	295	24	8	29%	5%	100	+1.7	241/289/476	235	297	29	7	29%	6%	112	+2.6	237/287/481	244	284	32	5	29%	5%	111	+2.1
✕Jerry Sands 2012 · MLB	24	42→46	55→60	47→45	45	224/288/408	184	273	23	7	27%	8%	94	+1.3	205/273/348	143	278	17	4	31%	8%	72	-0.2	238/300/412	174	297	20	3	26%	8%	96	+0.8
●Scott Moore 2008 · MLB	24	43→51	52→55	45→50	41	224/288/392	168	303	20	9	32%	7%	90	+1.0	218/277/364	146	273	17	7	26%	6%	78	+0.2	235/301/375	139	291	15	5	24%	7%	87	+0.6