Matt Wallner — OGILVIE

Matt WallnerRF St. Paul Saints

Age 28 L/R 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 2.250S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION346 act + 230 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 101125vR 134

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .319 / .471

PA230

HR12

K%32

BB%8

BABIP291

ISO243

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

2214.1%

xwOBA

690.330

POWER60

Barrel%

9014.4

Avg EV

8091.2

Bat Spd

8474.9

EYE50

Chase%

8524.9%

SPEED45

Sprint

2026.0

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 750 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

181

569

—

wRC+

136

▶▶R

wOBA

302

363

▶▶R

ISO

189

263

▶▶R

BABIP

267

298

▶R

30.9%

33.4%

◀L

BB%

9.9%

10.5%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.250 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.8M
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+2.6	$19M	+$15M
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+2.3	$16M	+$10M
2029	Arb-4	$10M	+1.9	$12M	+$5M
Totals		$23M		$48M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	53	45	6	2	1	1	4	20	4	0	0	133	264	289	553	156	208	38	8	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	53	44	9	3	1	2	5	14	4	0	0	205	340	455	794	250	250	26	9	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	373	338	67	13	2	16	23	170	10	0	1	198	270	391	660	192	331	46	6	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	373	324	88	16	2	21	37	125	10	0	1	272	364	528	892	256	372	34	10	389	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	3 teams	—	636	549	115	26	3	26	69	254	13	10	5	209	312	410	722	200	325	40	11	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	3 teams	—	636	515	140	35	4	29	103	195	13	10	5	272	406	524	930	252	375	31	16	406	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	559	483	112	20	4	23	51	190	23	2	1	232	334	433	767	201	327	34	9	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	559	467	127	31	4	25	67	167	23	2	1	272	390	516	906	244	368	30	12	398	163	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	558	488	111	29	2	27	47	205	19	8	0	227	319	461	781	234	323	37	8	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	558	479	124	32	2	32	56	186	19	8	0	259	359	534	894	276	347	33	10	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB	2 teams	—	419	362	73	17	3	24	47	121	8	4	3	202	307	464	771	262	224	29	11	336	115	+7	-0	-4	-4	+12	1.1
2025	27	MLB	2 teams	—	419	361	76	17	3	27	48	120	8	4	3	211	317	499	815	288	227	29	11	354	129	+14	-0	-4	-4	+12	1.8
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AAA	MIN	—	346	309	61	10	0	16	22	119	14	3	2	197	281	385	666	188	257	34	6	292	82	-7	-0	-2	-4	+10	-0.3
YTD	28	AAA	MIN	—	346	304	69	12	0	19	27	108	14	3	2	227	319	454	773	227	281	31	8	342	120	+8	-0	-2	-4	+10	1.2
ROS	28	AAA	MIN	100%	230	201	46	11	1	12	19	74	8	2	1	228	319	471	790	243	296	32	8	348	125	+6	+0	-0	-2	+7	1.0
ROS	28	MLB	MIN	100%	231	202	46	11	1	12	19	75	8	2	1	228	319	470	789	243	296	32	8	325	107	+2	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.6
FULL	28	AAA	MIN	—	577	511	107	21	1	28	41	194	22	5	3	209	296	419	715	209	271	34	7	305	92	-5	-0	-2	-6	+16	0.3
TOT	28	AAA	MIN	—	576	510	107	21	1	28	41	193	22	5	3	210	296	419	715	210	271	33	7	315	99	-1	-0	-2	-6	+16	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	MIN	98%	593	519	122	29	3	31	50	193	19	5	2	235	325	482	807	247	300	33	8	349	126	+17	+0	-2	-6	+17	2.6
2028	30	MLB	MIN	98%	581	508	117	28	2	30	49	190	19	5	2	230	321	470	792	240	298	33	8	346	123	+15	+0	-3	-6	+16	2.3
2029	31	MLB	MIN	98%	569	498	113	27	2	29	48	188	18	4	2	227	317	464	781	237	294	33	8	342	120	+13	+0	-4	-6	+16	1.9
2030	32	MLB	MIN	98%	558	488	108	26	2	27	47	187	18	3	1	221	313	449	762	227	288	34	8	335	114	+9	+0	-4	-6	+16	1.5
2031	33	MLB	MIN	98%	481	423	90	21	2	23	40	163	15	2	1	213	303	435	738	222	280	34	8	326	108	+4	+0	-5	-5	+14	0.8
2032	34	MLB	MIN	94%	407	357	73	17	1	19	34	141	13	1	1	204	297	417	714	213	270	35	8	315	99	-0	-0	-5	-4	+12	0.1
2033	35	MLB	MIN	89%	344	302	58	13	1	15	28	122	11	1	0	192	284	391	675	199	258	35	8	302	90	-4	+0	-6	-4	+10	-0.4
2027	29	MLB	MIN	98%	581	508	119	29	3	30	49	189	19	5	2	234	325	480	805	246	301	33	8	326	108	+5	+0	-2	-6	+16	1.4
2028	30	MLB	MIN	98%	569	498	115	28	2	29	48	186	18	5	2	231	321	470	791	239	298	33	8	323	106	+4	+0	-3	-6	+16	1.1
2029	31	MLB	MIN	98%	558	488	111	27	2	28	47	184	18	4	2	227	318	463	781	236	294	33	8	319	102	+1	+0	-4	-6	+16	0.8
2030	32	MLB	MIN	98%	547	479	106	25	2	27	46	183	17	3	1	221	312	451	763	230	288	33	8	312	97	-2	+0	-4	-6	+15	0.4
2031	33	MLB	MIN	98%	471	414	89	21	2	23	39	160	15	2	1	215	306	442	748	227	281	34	8	304	90	-5	+0	-5	-5	+13	-0.2
2032	34	MLB	MIN	94%	381	334	69	16	1	18	32	132	12	1	1	207	299	422	721	216	270	35	8	293	82	-8	-0	-5	-4	+11	-0.6
2033	35	MLB	MIN	89%	306	269	52	11	1	14	25	108	9	1	0	193	284	398	682	204	258	35	8	280	73	-9	+0	-5	-3	+9	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4616	4018	898	215	19	232	409	1531	155	33	14	223	319	460	779	236	292	33	9	323	106	+30	+1	-40	-62	+131	6.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	127	30	3	33	58	216	22	5	2	224	321	463	784	239	294	33	9	323	106	+4	+0	-6	-9	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	6361	5561	1211	279	29	303	556	2218	198	47	20	218	311	442	753	224	295	35	9	329	110	+74	+1	-42	-68	+180	14.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	124	29	3	31	57	227	20	5	2	218	311	444	755	225	297	35	9	329	110	+8	+0	-4	-7	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	53	44	9	3	1	2	5	14	4	0	0	205	340	455	794	250	250	26	9	354	129	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2021	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	294	258	68	14	2	15	28	98	7	0	1	264	352	508	859	244	363	33	10	376	146	+15	-0	—	—	+8	2.4
2021	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	79	66	20	2	0	6	9	27	3	0	0	303	410	606	1.016	303	412	34	11	435	191	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.1
2022	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	65	57	13	3	0	2	6	25	2	1	0	228	323	386	709	158	367	38	9	322	104	+0	+0	-1	-7	+2	-0.6
2022	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	229	190	47	17	3	6	35	63	4	1	0	247	376	463	839	216	339	28	15	373	144	+11	+0	—	—	+6	1.8
2022	24	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	342	268	80	15	1	21	62	107	7	8	5	299	442	597	1.039	299	407	31	18	444	198	+38	-0	—	—	+10	4.8
2023	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	254	213	53	11	1	14	28	80	13	2	1	249	370	507	877	258	328	31	11	387	155	+16	+0	-4	-6	+7	1.3
2023	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	305	254	74	20	3	11	39	87	10	0	0	291	406	524	930	232	399	29	13	407	170	+24	+0	—	—	+9	3.3
2024	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	261	220	57	17	1	13	24	95	16	3	0	259	373	523	896	264	389	36	9	393	159	+17	+1	-3	-6	+7	1.7
2024	26	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	297	259	67	15	1	19	32	91	3	5	0	259	347	544	891	286	316	31	11	384	152	+17	+1	—	—	+8	2.7
2025	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	392	336	68	16	3	22	46	114	8	4	3	202	313	464	777	262	228	29	12	341	119	+8	-0	-4	-4	+11	1.1
2025	27	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	27	25	8	1	0	5	2	6	0	0	0	320	370	960	1.330	640	214	22	7	552	280	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	972	826	191	47	5	51	104	314	39	10	4	231	345	485	830	254	302	32	11	366	138	+42	+0	-12	-23	+28	3.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	13	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	/162	664	32	7	245	314	469	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
#2Mark Reynoldslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,243 PA	13	6,243	298	64	236	328	453	-49	-105	15.9	16.3
	/162	664	32	7	236	328	453	-5.2	-11.1	1.7	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	4,853	241	34	223	315	457	-52	-43	16.8	15.6
	/162	664	33	5	223	315	457	-7.1	-5.9	2.3	pk7: 14
#3Russell Branyanlast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,352 PA	12	3,352	193	16	233	329	488	-25	-10	17.1	14.8
	/162	664	38	3	233	329	488	-4.9	-2.0	3.4	pk7: 12
#4Khris Davislast yr '21 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,804 PA	9	3,804	221	18	242	314	491	-40	-39	13.3	13.4
	/162	664	39	3	242	314	491	-7.0	-6.9	2.3	pk7: 13
#5Miguel Sanólast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,954 PA	9	2,954	164	5	233	325	477	-7	-38	12.2	12.6
	/162	664	37	1	233	325	477	-1.5	-8.5	2.7	pk7: 13
#6Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	11	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	4	242	316	418	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Wallner (OGILVIE)	28	40	60	45	50	210/296/419	210	271	28	5	33%	7%	99	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Pedro Álvarez 2015 · MLB	28	44→46	60	47→45	48	239/310/448	209	288	29	6	28%	9%	114	+2.7	240/307/454	214	285	30	4	27%	9%	114	+2.7	234/296/450	216	273	31	2	27%	8%	102	+1.6
★Kyle Schwarber 2021 · MLB	28	41→47	63→70	43→45	56	232/332/468	237	269	32	4	27%	12%	128	+3.6	229/338/492	263	264	37	5	28%	13%	136	+4.2	241/362/519	278	282	40	6	29%	15%	147	+5.0
●Jared Walsh 2021 · MLB	28	43→53	62→65	46→30	44	238/305/465	227	296	30	3	30%	8%	116	+2.8	242/305/442	200	310	26	3	29%	8%	110	+2.4	225/295/411	186	296	24	2	31%	8%	92	+0.9
★Chris Davis 2015 · MLB	29	42→52	64→70	43→40	49	234/322/476	242	287	34	4	31%	10%	126	+3.5	227/328/464	237	291	33	3	32%	12%	125	+3.5	222/328/456	233	288	33	1	33%	13%	117	+3.0
●Russell Branyan 2004 · MLB	28	44→45	61→70	43→45	50	231/323/455	224	311	29	5	34%	12%	121	+3.2	242/339/482	240	334	31	5	34%	12%	134	+4.1	249/338/514	265	305	37	3	30%	11%	135	+2.9
✕Mark Reynolds 2012 · MLB	28	38→48	64→65	45→50	53	218/322/459	241	274	33	9	33%	12%	121	+3.2	215/313/411	196	273	26	5	30%	12%	105	+2.1	232/318/389	157	302	19	2	28%	11%	99	+1.3
●Daniel Vogelbach 2021 · MLB	28	42→52	61→60	44→40	61	231/343/455	223	261	30	2	25%	14%	128	+3.7	240/354/428	188	289	24	2	24%	15%	126	+3.5	237/357/419	182	285	24	0	24%	15%	121	+2.0
●Chris Carter 2015 · MLB	28	41→51	62→65	47→45	49	226/312/454	229	287	31	5	33%	10%	116	+2.8	216/310/451	235	274	33	4	33%	11%	115	+2.7	207/307/443	237	261	33	2	34%	11%	109	+1.9
●Joey Gallo 2021 · MLB	27	39→34	66→70	45	54	220/333/479	259	291	34	7	36%	14%	131	+3.9	195/323/425	230	265	32	6	37%	15%	114	+2.7	179/313/412	234	235	34	4	38%	16%	103	+1.5
●Hunter Renfroe 2020 · MLB	28	41→47	68→70	50→45	45	241/303/506	265	274	38	6	28%	8%	126	+3.5	237/303/482	245	265	34	5	25%	8%	120	+3.1	243/305/458	215	272	29	1	23%	8%	112	+2.3
●Brandon Moss 2013 · MLB	29	45→50	62→65	43→45	44	244/306/470	226	291	30	7	28%	7%	118	+3.0	250/330/484	234	303	31	4	27%	10%	131	+3.9	241/329/462	222	294	29	2	27%	10%	118	+2.7
✕Franmil Reyes 2022 · MLB	27	47→51	65	47→45	47	256/325/497	242	316	34	4	30%	9%	133	+4.0	226/287/390	164	306	22	4	32%	8%	89	+0.9	208/267/343	135	287	18	2	33%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Aristides Aquino 2022 · MLB	28	39→40	62→65	48→50	48	223/305/448	225	274	32	9	31%	10%	111	+2.5	214/282/386	172	313	21	8	36%	8%	85	+0.7	195/253/361	167	290	22	6	39%	6%	66	-0.4
✕Chris Duncan 2008 · MLB	27	48→50	59→60	41→40	51	254/332/462	208	312	27	3	27%	10%	125	+3.5	227/311/369	142	284	16	4	24%	11%	93	+1.3	201/285/305	104	253	11	3	24%	10%	62	-0.5
✕Miguel Sanó 2022 · MLB	29	41→51	66→70	43→45	48	229/314/483	253	305	35	3	36%	11%	124	+3.4	221/304/412	191	310	25	6	35%	10%	102	+1.8	181/271/315	135	266	19	3	37%	9%	61	-0.2
✕Jordan Luplow 2022 · MLB	28	43→48	60→65	39→50	57	231/333/455	224	271	27	6	26%	12%	124	+3.4	212/299/402	190	244	25	11	25%	10%	97	+1.5	202/285/377	175	228	24	13	24%	9%	82	+0.2
●Adam Duvall 2017 · MLB	28	41→44	60→70	45	41	228/279/446	218	264	29	6	27%	6%	100	+1.7	228/289/450	222	268	29	5	27%	7%	106	+2.2	230/290/515	285	247	44	3	29%	6%	121	+2.4
✕Gary Sánchez 2021 · MLB	28	33→43	64→65	43→45	49	205/294/439	234	231	34	3	30%	10%	105	+2.1	209/298/410	201	252	27	3	28%	10%	99	+1.7	224/310/436	212	260	32	1	27%	9%	109	+1.1
✕Mike Jacobs 2009 · MLB	28	47→53	61→65	45→40	47	255/310/484	228	283	29	3	22%	7%	123	+3.3	228/287/406	178	276	23	3	26%	8%	92	+1.2	214/276/368	154	267	20	1	27%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Ryan Schimpf 2017 · MLB	29	39→41	61→65	41→45	48	220/301/452	232	261	29	3	28%	9%	111	+2.5	185/277/386	201	266	27	4	39%	10%	85	+0.7	134/238/320	186	181	28	1	44%	11%	51	-0.8