Matt Wallner

RF St. Paul Saints
Age 29 L/R 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA Svc 2.541 · Ctrl thru 2030
Overview
AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202426AAAMIN297.259/.347/.54419576—.198/.269/.384
202426MLBMIN261.259/.373/.5231331521.4
202527AAAMIN27.320/.370/.96050112—.231/.259/.615
202527MLBMIN392.202/.313/.4642241160.8
202628AAAMIN413.254/.369/.52025982—.193/.284/.369
202628MLBMIN135.167/.259/.2924059-1.2
2027PROJ45% MLB29MLBMIN107.217/.308/.439511090.2
2028PROJ53% MLB30MLBMIN266.213/.304/.4301321050.3
2029PROJ58% MLB31MLBMIN282.208/.298/.4181411000.1
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2030Service2.541First FA2031
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$2M2029Arb-2$2M2030Arb-3$2M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Barrel%90
Bat Spd84
Avg EV80
xwOBA69
Speed20
CompsPedro Álvarez (age 29) · Rick Ankiel (age 30) · Ryan Schimpf (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 96109vR 114
AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .308 / .439
PA107
HR5
K%32
BB%9
BABIP272
ISO204
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +2.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+2BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: -2.6 runs (Positional adjustment)-3POSREP: +5.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.60+0.6WAR
0.00.51.00.30.30.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT40
xAVG
100.213
POWER60
Barrel%
9014.4
Avg EV
8091.2
Bat Spd
8474.9
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED45
Sprint
2026.0
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 750 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
181
569
—
wRC+
91
131
▶▶R
wOBA
302
363
▶▶R
ISO
189
263
▶▶R
BABIP
267
298
▶R
K%
30.9%
33.4%
◀L
BB%
9.9%
10.5%
▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2022
Service   2.541 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2031
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.3M
2028Arb-1$2M+0.3$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Arb-2$2M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Arb-3$2M———
Totals $0.8M $2M +$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201921 ACedar Rapids Kernels — 5344 9312 5144 00 205340455794 250250 269 354 62 — — — — — —
202123 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 294258 6814215 28987 01 264352508859 244363 3310 376 72 — — — — — —
202123 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 7966 20206 9273 00 3034106061.016 303412 3411 435 181 — — — — — —
202224 MLBMinnesota Twins — 6557 13302 6252 10 228323386709 158367 389 322 96 -0 +0 -1 -7 +1 -0.7
202224 AAASt. Paul Saints — 229190 471736 35634 10 247376463839 216339 2815 373 84 — — — — — —
202224 AAWichita Wind Surge — 342268 8015121 621077 85 2994425971.039 299407 3118 444 118 — — — — — —
202325 MLBMinnesota Twins — 254213 5311114 288013 21 249370507877 258328 3111 387 146 +14 +0 -4 -6 +6 0.9
202325 AAASt. Paul Saints — 305254 7420311 398710 00 291406524930 232399 2913 407 93 — — — — — —
202426 MLBMinnesota Twins — 261220 5717113 249516 30 259373523896 264389 369 393 152 +16 +1 -3 -6 +6 1.4
202426 AAASt. Paul Saints — 297259 6715119 32913 50 259347544891 286316 3111 384 76 — — — — — —
202527 MLBMinnesota Twins — 392336 6816322 461148 43 202313464777 262228 2912 341 116 +8 -0 -4 -4 +8 0.8
202527 AAASt. Paul Saints — 2725 8105 260 00 3203709601.330 640214 227 552 112 — — — — — —
202628 MLBMinnesota Twins — 135120 20304 10535 01 167259292551 125254 397 256 59 -7 -0 -2 -6 +3 -1.2
202628 AAASt. Paul Saints — 413346 8817025 5011513 93 254369520889 266300 2812 387 82 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 1107946 21150555 11436744 105 223334461795 238296 3310 352 125 +32 +0 -14 -29 +24 1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201921 A MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 5345 6211 4204 00 133264289553 156217 388 260 62 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 294267 5210211 191337 01 195266371637 176320 456 274 72 — — — — — —
202224 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 6558 13302 5252 10 224308379687 155367 388 311 96 -0 +0 -1 -7 +1 -0.7
202224 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 229201 411335 24774 10 204301373674 169295 3410 292 84 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 342290 6712117 401367 85 231338455793 224333 4012 343 118 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 254214 5311114 278013 21 248366505871 257328 3111 384 146 +14 +0 -4 -6 +6 0.9
202325 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 305268 611238 2510710 00 228317384701 157336 358 306 93 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 261220 5717113 249516 30 259373523896 264389 369 392 152 +16 +1 -3 -6 +6 1.4
202426 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 297268 5312112 231103 50 198269384653 187262 378 280 76 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 392336 6816322 461148 43 202313464777 262228 2912 340 116 +8 -0 -4 -4 +8 0.8
202527 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 2726 6103 170 00 231259615875 385175 264 334 112 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 135120 20304 10535 01 167259292551 125254 397 256 59 -7 -0 -2 -6 +3 -1.2
202628 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 413363 7013017 3313813 93 193284369653 176248 338 289 82 — — — — — —
201921 A MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 5345 6211 4204 00 133264289553 156208 388 260 62 — — — — — —
201921 A RAWCedar Rapids Kernels — 5344 9312 5144 00 205340455794 250250 269 354 62 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLE2 teams — 373338 6513214 2316910 01 192264367631 175325 456 274 72 — — — — — —
202123 A+ RAW2 teams — 373324 8816221 3712510 01 272364528892 256372 3410 389 72 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLE3 teams — 636549 11928324 6923813 105 217319410728 193325 3711 321 104 — — — — — —
202224 AA RAW3 teams — 636515 14035429 10319513 105 272406524930 252375 3116 406 104 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 559482 11423422 5218723 21 237339438777 201335 339 341 117 — — — — — —
202325 AAA RAW2 teams — 559467 12731425 6716723 21 272390516906 244368 3012 398 117 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 558488 11029225 4720519 80 225318447764 221324 378 332 111 — — — — — —
202426 AAA RAW2 teams — 558479 12432232 5618619 80 259359534894 276347 3310 388 111 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLE2 teams — 419362 7417325 471218 43 204309475784 271225 2911 340 116 +8 -0 -4 -4 +9 0.9
202527 MLB RAW2 teams — 419361 7617327 481208 43 211317499815 288227 2911 354 116 +8 -0 -4 -4 +9 0.9
202628 AAA MLE2 teams — 548483 9016021 4319118 94 186278350627 164251 358 281 76 — — — — — —
202628 AAA RAW2 teams — 548466 10820029 6016818 94 232342461803 230289 3111 355 76 — — — — — —
201921 A MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 5345 6211 4204 00 133264289553 156217 388 260 62 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLE2 teams — 373337 6513214 2316910 01 193264368632 175320 456 274 72 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLE3 teams — 636549 11928324 6923813 105 217319410728 193323 3711 321 104 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 559479 11423422 5218723 21 238339441780 203332 339 341 117 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 558487 11029225 4720519 80 226318448765 222322 378 332 111 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLE2 teams — 419361 7417325 471218 43 205309476786 271224 2911 340 116 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLE2 teams — 548482 9016021 4319118 94 187278351628 164249 358 281 76 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 558487 11029225 4720519 80 226318448765 222322 378 332 111 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLE2 teams — 419361 7417325 471218 43 205309476786 271224 2911 340 116 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLE2 teams — 548482 9016021 4319118 94 187278351628 164249 358 281 76 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLEMIN 45% 506443 9619225 4516213 72 217308438746 221272 329 329 109 +5 +1 -1 -5 +11 0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXMIN 45% 10793 20405 10343 10 217308439748 222272 329 329 109 +1 +0 -0 -1 +2 0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLEMIN 53% 502440 9419125 4416213 52 213304429733 216268 329 323 105 +3 +0 -3 -5 +11 0.6
202931 MLB MLEMIN 58% 489431 8918123 4316012 11 208298417715 209263 339 317 100 +0 -0 -4 -5 +11 0.1
203032 MLB MLEMIN 60% 476420 8416122 4115812 11 201291402692 200256 339 307 94 -3 -0 -5 -5 +10 -0.3
202830 MLB CTXMIN 53% 266233 5010113 24867 21 213304430734 217269 329 324 105 +2 +0 -2 -3 +6 0.3
202931 MLB CTXMIN 58% 282248 5210114 25927 11 208298418717 210263 339 317 100 +0 -0 -2 -3 +6 0.1
203032 MLB CTXMIN 60% 288254 5110113 25957 10 201291403694 201256 339 308 94 -2 +0 -3 -3 +6 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 19431681 36480895 18864065 147 217319443762 227283 3310 337 100 +32 +0 -21 -38 +42 1.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650562 12327332 6321422 52 219321448770 230286 3310 337 100 +11 +0 -7 -13 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 48514247 89119019214 4341687138 4319 210304415718 205285 359 316 100 +35 +0 -26 -47 +61 2.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650569 12025329 5822618 63 211304418722 207286 359 316 100 +8 +0 -6 -11 +14 0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 413 PAwOBA .380 → .289 (−90)K% 27.8% → 33.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.85%÷1.000×1.200——33.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.86%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9828.04%
HBP% /PA3.15%—×0.940—×0.9822.91%
Singles /BIP19.91%÷1.000×0.930×0.968×0.98217.60%
Doubles /BIP7.36%÷1.000×0.830×0.968×0.9825.80%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.968×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP10.82%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9827.44%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .380 → .289; ISO .266 → .187; BABIP .300 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 27 PAwOBA .534 → .334 (−199)K% 22.2% → 27.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.22%÷0.989×1.200——26.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.41%÷1.022×0.690—×0.9924.96%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9920.00%
Singles /BIP10.53%÷0.944×0.930—×0.99210.29%
Doubles /BIP5.26%÷0.938×0.830—×0.9924.62%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP26.32%÷1.253×0.700—×0.99214.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .534 → .334; ISO .640 → .356; BABIP .214 → .175. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 297 PAwOBA .377 → .280 (−96)K% 30.6% → 36.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.64%÷0.995×1.200——36.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.77%÷0.985×0.690—×1.0037.57%
HBP% /PA1.01%—×0.940—×1.0030.95%
Singles /BIP19.05%÷1.010×0.930×0.965×1.00316.99%
Doubles /BIP8.93%÷0.996×0.830×0.965×1.0037.20%
Triples /BIP0.60%÷1.043×0.970×0.965×1.0030.54%
Home runs /BIP11.31%÷1.039×0.700—×1.0037.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 109, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .377 → .280; ISO .286 → .195; BABIP .316 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 305 PAwOBA .398 → .306 (−92)K% 28.5% → 35.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.52%÷0.973×1.200——35.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.46%÷1.067×0.690—×1.0188.20%
HBP% /PA3.28%—×0.940—×1.0183.14%
Singles /BIP23.95%÷0.964×0.930×0.988×1.01823.22%
Doubles /BIP11.98%÷1.341×0.830×0.988×1.0187.45%
Triples /BIP1.80%÷0.977×0.970×0.988×1.0181.79%
Home runs /BIP6.59%÷1.009×0.700—×1.0184.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 168, 3B 95, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .398 → .306; ISO .232 → .161; BABIP .399 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAWichita Wind Surge · 342 PAwOBA .435 → .343 (−92)K% 31.3% → 39.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.29%÷0.958×1.220——39.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.67%÷0.991×0.700—×0.99811.74%
HBP% /PA2.05%—×0.870—×0.9981.78%
Singles /BIP26.71%÷1.018×0.920×0.950×0.99822.89%
Doubles /BIP9.32%÷1.001×0.840×0.950×0.9987.41%
Triples /BIP0.62%÷1.150×0.940×0.950×0.9980.48%
Home runs /BIP13.04%÷0.985×0.800—×0.99810.57%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .435 → .343; ISO .299 → .239; BABIP .407 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 229 PAwOBA .363 → .292 (−71)K% 27.5% → 33.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.51%÷0.981×1.200——33.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.85%÷1.012×0.690—×1.03310.46%
HBP% /PA1.75%—×0.940—×1.0331.70%
Singles /BIP16.54%÷1.000×0.930×0.994×1.03315.78%
Doubles /BIP13.39%÷1.079×0.830×0.994×1.03310.57%
Triples /BIP2.36%÷1.150×0.970×0.994×1.0332.05%
Home runs /BIP4.72%÷0.881×0.700—×1.0333.88%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .363 → .292; ISO .216 → .172; BABIP .339 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 294 PAwOBA .366 → .274 (−92)K% 33.3% → 45.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.33%÷0.992×1.350——45.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.18%÷1.026×0.710—×0.9886.28%
HBP% /PA2.38%—×0.810—×0.9881.91%
Singles /BIP23.12%÷1.012×0.910×1.020×0.98820.95%
Doubles /BIP8.75%÷0.976×0.830×1.020×0.9887.49%
Triples /BIP1.25%÷0.900×0.820×1.020×0.9881.15%
Home runs /BIP9.38%÷0.920×0.830—×0.9888.36%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .366 → .274; ISO .244 → .185; BABIP .363 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 53 PAwOBA .345 → .260 (−86)K% 26.4% → 37.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.42%÷0.968×1.360——37.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.43%÷0.960×0.690——6.78%
HBP% /PA7.55%—×0.780——5.89%
Singles /BIP10.00%÷1.007×0.920——9.13%
Doubles /BIP10.00%÷0.976×0.830——8.50%
Triples /BIP3.33%÷1.045×0.910——2.90%
Home runs /BIP6.67%÷0.997×0.800——5.35%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 109, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .345 → .260; ISO .250 → .184; BABIP .250 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .