Chris Carter

Pos1B

B/TR/R

Born1986-12-18

Age (2027)40

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2019

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2017	30	AAAMIL	154	.252/.359/.511	9	0	75	—	.182/.268/.372
2017	30	MLBNYY	208	.201/.286/.370	8	0	81	-0.7
2018	31	AAAWSH	312	.224/.322/.519	20	2	79	—	.179/.251/.425
2019	32	AAAAcereros del …	546	.293/.455/.709	49	1	118	—	.202/.327/.462
2020	33	No MLB games played
2021	34	No MLB games played
2022	35	No MLB games played
2023	36	No MLB games played
2024	37	No MLB games played
2025	38	No MLB games played
2026	39	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.7

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015-2017

Barrel%90

xwOBA81

Avg EV81

Speed27

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	18	ROK	Bristol White Sox	—	263	233	66	17	0	10	17	64	8	2	1	283	351	485	836	202	348	24	6	364	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	52	46	6	3	0	1	5	17	1	0	0	130	231	261	492	130	179	33	10	230	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	ROK	Great Falls White Sox	—	294	251	75	21	1	15	34	70	8	4	4	299	399	570	969	271	359	24	12	421	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	545	467	136	27	3	25	67	112	6	3	2	291	387	522	910	231	331	21	12	396	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+	Stockton Ports	—	596	506	131	32	4	39	77	156	7	4	0	259	364	569	934	310	290	26	13	400	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	58	54	14	2	0	4	3	14	0	0	1	259	298	519	817	259	270	24	5	349	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	593	490	165	41	2	24	82	119	11	13	5	337	443	576	1.018	239	395	20	14	438	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	78	70	13	1	0	3	7	21	0	1	0	186	260	329	588	143	213	27	9	264	70	-3	+0	-6	-7	+2	-1.3
2010	23	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	551	465	120	29	2	31	73	138	8	1	1	258	368	529	897	271	296	25	13	389	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	46	44	6	0	0	0	2	20	0	0	0	136	174	136	310		250	43	4	148	-13	-6	+0	-1	-7	+1	-1.4
2011	24	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	344	296	81	18	2	18	42	85	3	5	1	274	370	530	900	257	321	25	12	390	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	A+	Stockton Ports	—	28	24	8	0	0	3	4	8	0	0	0	333	429	708	1.137	375	385	29	14	484	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	260	218	52	12	0	16	39	83	0	0	0	239	354	514	868	275	295	32	15	376	146	+14	+0	-5	-10	+6	0.4
2012	25	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	324	276	77	19	1	12	38	74	4	5	1	279	374	486	860	207	332	23	12	374	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	585	506	113	24	2	29	70	212	4	2	0	223	322	451	773	227	311	36	12	340	115	+10	+0	-15	-10	+13	-0.2
2014	27	MLB	Houston Astros	—	572	507	115	21	1	37	56	182	5	5	2	227	310	491	801	264	267	32	10	348	117	+12	+0	-3	-10	+12	1.1
2015	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	460	391	78	17	0	24	57	151	6	1	2	199	310	427	737	228	244	33	12	325	105	+3	-1	-12	-8	+10	-0.8
2016	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	644	549	122	27	1	41	76	206	9	3	1	222	326	499	826	277	260	32	12	356	125	+19	+0	-3	-12	+14	1.9
2017	30	MLB	New York Yankees	—	208	184	37	5	1	8	20	76	2	0	0	201	286	370	656	168	284	37	10	293	81	-5	+0	+0	-6	+5	-0.7
2017	30	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	154	131	33	5	1	9	19	49	3	0	0	252	359	511	871	260	324	32	12	380	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	312	268	60	17	1	20	35	92	4	2	0	224	322	519	841	295	248	29	11	360	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA	Acereros del Norte	—	546	416	122	26	0	49	115	156	8	1	0	293	455	709	1.164	416	335	29	21	484	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2853	2469	536	107	5	158	327	951	26	12	5	217	315	456	771	239	272	33	11	337	114	+49	+0	-44	-71	+62	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	18	ROK MLE	Bristol White Sox	—	263	240	47	11	0	7	11	91	8	2	1	196	255	329	584	133	272	35	4	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	52	48	5	2	0	1	3	23	1	0	0	104	173	208	381	104	157	44	6	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	ROK MLE	Great Falls White Sox	—	294	267	55	14	1	11	18	101	8	4	4	206	276	390	666	184	269	34	6	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	545	491	116	21	3	20	43	150	6	3	2	236	306	413	719	177	288	28	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	596	529	107	24	3	34	54	209	7	4	0	202	285	452	737	250	241	35	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	58	55	12	2	0	3	2	18	0	0	1	218	246	418	664	200	245	31	3	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	593	514	146	34	2	20	58	145	11	13	5	284	369	475	843	191	342	24	10	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	78	70	13	1	0	3	7	21	0	1	0	186	260	329	588	143	213	27	9	271	70	-3	+0	-6	-7	+2	-1.3
2010	23	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	551	488	104	25	2	26	50	171	8	1	1	213	297	432	729	219	260	31	9	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	46	44	6	0	0	0	2	20	0	0	0	136	174	136	310		250	43	4	149	-13	-6	+0	-1	-7	+1	-1.4
2011	24	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	344	307	68	15	1	15	31	107	3	5	1	221	299	423	723	202	278	31	9	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	28	25	6	0	0	2	3	10	0	0	0	240	321	480	801	240	316	36	11	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	260	219	54	12	0	18	38	83	0	0	0	247	358	548	906	301	295	32	15	384	146	+14	+0	-5	-10	+6	0.4
2012	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	324	288	67	14	1	10	26	92	4	5	1	233	305	392	697	160	287	28	8	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	585	507	113	23	2	30	69	212	4	2	0	223	321	454	774	231	311	36	12	338	115	+10	+0	-15	-10	+13	-0.2
2014	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	572	513	115	20	1	38	50	182	5	5	2	224	299	489	789	265	267	32	9	341	117	+12	+0	-3	-10	+12	1.1
2015	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	460	393	78	16	0	25	56	151	6	1	2	198	308	430	738	232	244	33	12	323	105	+3	-1	-12	-8	+10	-0.8
2016	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	644	550	122	29	1	39	75	206	9	3	1	222	325	491	816	269	260	32	12	353	125	+19	+0	-3	-12	+14	1.9
2017	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	208	184	36	5	1	7	20	76	2	0	0	196	282	348	629	152	284	37	10	288	81	-5	+0	+0	-6	+5	-0.7
2017	30	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	154	137	25	3	1	7	13	63	3	0	0	182	268	372	640	190	260	41	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	312	280	50	13	1	18	23	113	4	2	0	179	251	425	676	246	200	36	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	546	455	92	19	0	33	76	189	8	1	0	202	327	462	788	259	239	35	14	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	18	ROK MLE	Bristol White Sox	—	263	240	47	11	0	7	11	91	8	2	1	196	255	329	584	133	278	35	4	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	18	ROK RAW	Bristol White Sox	—	263	233	66	17	0	10	17	64	8	2	1	283	351	485	836	202	348	24	6	364	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	346	315	58	16	1	11	21	124	9	4	4	184	255	346	601	162	260	36	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	346	297	81	24	1	16	39	87	9	4	4	273	374	522	896	249	333	25	11	392	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	545	491	116	21	3	20	43	150	6	3	2	236	306	413	719	177	294	28	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	545	467	136	27	3	25	67	112	6	3	2	291	387	522	910	231	331	21	12	396	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	596	529	107	24	3	34	54	209	7	4	0	202	285	452	737	250	250	35	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	—	596	506	131	32	4	39	77	156	7	4	0	259	364	569	934	310	290	26	13	400	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	651	569	158	36	2	23	60	163	11	13	6	278	358	469	827	192	343	25	9	358	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	651	544	179	43	2	28	85	133	11	13	6	329	430	570	1.000	241	383	20	13	430	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	629	558	117	26	2	29	57	192	8	2	1	210	292	419	711	210	257	31	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	629	535	133	30	2	34	80	159	8	2	1	249	355	503	858	254	284	25	13	373	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	418	376	80	15	1	17	36	138	3	5	1	213	287	394	680	181	281	33	9	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	418	364	95	18	2	21	48	113	3	5	1	261	352	495	846	234	318	27	11	370	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	584	507	121	26	1	28	64	175	4	5	1	239	329	460	788	221	297	30	11	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	584	494	129	31	1	28	77	157	4	5	1	261	365	498	863	237	318	27	13	375	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	585	507	113	23	2	30	69	212	4	2	0	223	321	454	774	231	307	36	12	338	115	+10	+0	-15	-10	+13	-0.2
2013	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	585	506	113	24	2	29	70	212	4	2	0	223	322	451	773	227	311	36	12	340	115	+10	+0	-15	-10	+13	-0.2
2014	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	572	513	115	20	1	38	50	182	5	5	2	224	299	489	789	265	259	32	9	341	117	+12	+0	-3	-10	+12	1.1
2014	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	572	507	115	21	1	37	56	182	5	5	2	227	310	491	801	264	267	32	10	348	117	+12	+0	-3	-10	+12	1.1
2015	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	460	393	78	16	0	25	56	151	6	1	2	198	308	430	738	232	239	33	12	323	105	+3	-1	-12	-8	+10	-0.8
2015	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	460	391	78	17	0	24	57	151	6	1	2	199	310	427	737	228	244	33	12	325	105	+3	-1	-12	-8	+10	-0.8
2016	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	644	550	122	29	1	39	75	206	9	3	1	222	325	491	816	269	263	32	12	353	125	+19	+0	-3	-12	+14	1.9
2016	29	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	644	549	122	27	1	41	76	206	9	3	1	222	326	499	826	277	260	32	12	356	125	+19	+0	-3	-12	+14	1.9
2017	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	362	321	62	8	2	15	33	139	5	0	0	193	279	371	649	178	276	38	9	284	79	-9	+0	+0	-6	+8	-0.8
2017	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	362	315	70	10	2	17	39	125	5	0	0	222	318	429	746	206	301	35	11	330	79	-9	+0	+0	-6	+8	-0.8
2018	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	312	280	50	13	1	18	23	113	4	2	0	179	251	425	676	246	208	36	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	312	268	60	17	1	20	35	92	4	2	0	224	322	519	841	295	248	29	11	360	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	546	455	92	19	0	33	76	189	8	1	0	202	327	462	788	259	246	35	14	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA RAW	Acereros del Norte	—	546	416	122	26	0	49	115	156	8	1	0	293	455	709	1.164	416	335	29	21	484	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	18	ROK MLE	Bristol White Sox	—	263	242	47	11	0	7	11	91	8	2	1	194	255	326	581	132	272	35	4	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	346	313	58	16	1	11	21	124	9	4	4	185	255	348	603	163	252	36	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	545	491	116	21	3	20	43	150	6	3	2	236	306	413	719	177	288	28	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	596	530	107	24	3	34	54	209	7	4	0	202	285	451	736	249	241	35	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	651	575	158	36	2	23	60	163	11	13	6	275	358	464	822	190	333	25	9	358	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	629	559	117	26	2	29	57	192	8	2	1	209	292	419	711	209	254	31	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	418	376	80	15	1	17	36	138	3	5	1	213	287	394	680	181	277	33	9	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	584	511	121	26	1	28	64	175	4	5	1	237	329	456	785	219	291	30	11	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	585	507	113	23	2	30	69	212	4	2	0	223	321	454	774	231	311	36	12	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	572	512	115	20	1	38	50	182	5	5	2	225	299	490	790	266	267	32	9	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	460	395	78	16	0	25	56	151	6	1	2	197	308	428	736	230	244	33	12	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	644	555	122	29	1	39	75	206	9	3	1	220	325	486	811	267	260	32	12	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	362	321	62	8	2	15	33	139	5	0	0	193	279	371	649	178	274	38	9	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	312	282	50	13	1	18	23	113	4	2	0	177	251	422	673	245	200	36	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	546	457	92	19	0	33	76	189	8	1	0	201	327	460	786	258	239	35	14	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2853	2469	536	107	5	158	327	951	26	12	5	217	315	456	771	239	272	33	11	337	103	+49	+0	-44	-71	+62	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	122	24	1	36	75	217	6	3	1	217	316	455	770	238	271	33	12	337	103	+11	+0	-10	-16	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	7513	6604	1436	303	20	367	728	2434	97	52	21	217	304	436	740	219	275	32	10	321	103	+49	+0	-44	-71	+62	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	125	26	2	32	63	211	8	4	2	219	305	440	744	221	278	32	10	321	103	+11	+0	-10	-16	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAAcereros del Norte · 546 PAwOBA .476 → .343 (−133)K% 28.6% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.57%	÷0.988	×1.200	—	—	34.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.51%	÷0.960	×0.690	—	×0.942	13.89%
HBP% /PA	1.47%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.30%
Singles /BIP	18.08%	÷1.036	×0.930	×0.950	×0.942	14.53%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.048	×0.830	×0.950	×0.942	7.08%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.922	×0.920	×0.950	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	18.85%	÷1.015	×0.700	—	×0.942	12.24%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 110, 3B 84, K 98, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .476 → .343; ISO .416 → .288; BABIP .335 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAARochester Red Wings · 312 PAwOBA .356 → .285 (−71)K% 29.5% → 36.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.49%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	36.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.22%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.31%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.15%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.023	×0.930	×0.983	×0.952	10.63%
Doubles /BIP	9.66%	÷1.009	×0.830	×0.983	×0.952	7.43%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.983	×0.952	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	11.36%	÷0.879	×0.840	—	×0.952	10.34%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .356 → .285; ISO .295 → .254; BABIP .248 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANashville Sounds · 154 PAwOBA .372 → .279 (−93)K% 31.8% → 40.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.82%	÷1.003	×1.290	—	—	40.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.34%	÷1.029	×0.710	—	×0.962	8.19%
HBP% /PA	1.95%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	1.84%
Singles /BIP	21.95%	÷0.984	×0.900	×0.955	×0.962	18.45%
Doubles /BIP	6.10%	÷1.021	×0.810	×0.955	×0.962	4.45%
Triples /BIP	1.22%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.955	×0.962	1.01%
Home runs /BIP	10.98%	÷0.868	×0.780	—	×0.962	9.49%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .372 → .279; ISO .260 → .201; BABIP .324 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAASacramento River Cats · 324 PAwOBA .371 → .304 (−67)K% 22.8% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.84%	÷1.034	×1.290	—	—	28.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.73%	÷1.064	×0.710	—	×1.018	7.97%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	1.23%
Singles /BIP	22.28%	÷0.940	×0.900	×0.950	×1.018	20.63%
Doubles /BIP	9.41%	÷1.045	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	7.05%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷1.062	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	0.37%
Home runs /BIP	5.94%	÷0.925	×0.780	—	×1.018	5.10%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 88, 2B 109, 3B 112, K 107, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .371 → .304; ISO .207 → .169; BABIP .332 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAASacramento River Cats · 344 PAwOBA .383 → .313 (−70)K% 24.7% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.71%	÷1.021	×1.290	—	—	31.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.21%	÷0.991	×0.710	—	×1.033	9.04%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.88%
Singles /BIP	20.38%	÷0.995	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	18.09%
Doubles /BIP	8.53%	÷0.916	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	7.40%
Triples /BIP	0.95%	÷1.048	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	0.72%
Home runs /BIP	8.53%	÷0.936	×0.780	—	×1.033	7.34%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 99, 2B 83, 3B 110, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .383 → .313; ISO .257 → .211; BABIP .321 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 A+Stockton Ports · 28 PAwOBA .470 → .336 (−134)K% 28.6% → 37.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.57%	÷1.022	×1.340	—	—	37.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷1.057	×0.710	—	×0.978	9.39%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.978	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.25%	÷1.016	×0.910	—	×0.978	27.38%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.917	×0.820	—	×0.978	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.920	×0.760	—	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	18.75%	÷1.255	×0.920	—	×0.978	13.44%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 103, 2B 83, 3B 84, K 104, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .470 → .336; ISO .375 → .250; BABIP .385 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAASacramento River Cats · 551 PAwOBA .381 → .315 (−66)K% 25.0% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.05%	÷1.038	×1.290	—	—	31.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.07%	÷1.067	×0.710	—	×1.048	9.11%
HBP% /PA	1.45%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	1.49%
Singles /BIP	17.74%	÷0.998	×0.900	×0.950	×1.048	15.93%
Doubles /BIP	8.87%	÷0.920	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	7.77%
Triples /BIP	0.61%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	0.55%
Home runs /BIP	9.48%	÷0.950	×0.780	—	×1.048	8.16%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 100, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 108, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .381 → .315; ISO .271 → .230; BABIP .296 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAMidland RockHounds · 593 PAwOBA .433 → .366 (−67)K% 20.1% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.07%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	24.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.49%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	9.70%
HBP% /PA	1.85%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	1.66%
Singles /BIP	26.42%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	23.71%
Doubles /BIP	11.05%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.950	×1.027	9.06%
Triples /BIP	0.54%	÷1.000	×0.940	×0.950	×1.027	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	6.47%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	5.31%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .433 → .366; ISO .239 → .202; BABIP .395 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).