Daniel Vellojin
C Montgomery Biscuits| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AACIN | 215 | .170/.294/.242 | 2 | 1 | 24 | — | .147/.238/.194 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+TB | 300 | .193/.307/.311 | 6 | 4 | 26 | — | .146/.226/.235 |
| 2026 | 26 | AATB | 117 | .228/.328/.317 | 1 | 1 | 45 | — | .190/.267/.267 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBTB | 2 | .194/.269/.282 | 0 | 0 | 57 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBTB | 34 | .195/.270/.284 | 0 | 0 | 58 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 160 | 131 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 30 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 198 | 340 | 305 | 645 | 107 | 240 | 19 | 16 | 303 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 216 | 175 | 55 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 24 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 314 | 444 | 451 | 896 | 137 | 351 | 11 | 14 | 407 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 362 | 283 | 70 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 72 | 73 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 247 | 405 | 403 | 808 | 155 | 304 | 20 | 20 | 367 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 112 | 94 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 191 | 309 | 362 | 671 | 170 | 250 | 30 | 14 | 300 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 84 | 70 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 271 | 393 | 514 | 907 | 243 | 341 | 29 | 15 | 400 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 75 | 62 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 129 | 280 | 177 | 457 | 48 | 175 | 28 | 17 | 233 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Colombia | — | 25 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 280 | 217 | 497 | 278 | 20 | 8 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 280 | 237 | 47 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 63 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 198 | 314 | 308 | 622 | 110 | 250 | 22 | 14 | 287 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 215 | 182 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 51 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 294 | 242 | 536 | 71 | 223 | 24 | 14 | 258 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 300 | 254 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 78 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 193 | 307 | 311 | 618 | 118 | 249 | 26 | 12 | 285 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 117 | 101 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 328 | 317 | 644 | 89 | 293 | 22 | 11 | 297 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 160 | 139 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 37 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 129 | 239 | 187 | 426 | 58 | 163 | 23 | 11 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 216 | 184 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 29 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 190 | 310 | 255 | 566 | 65 | 217 | 13 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 362 | 305 | 63 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 50 | 96 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 207 | 324 | 331 | 655 | 125 | 270 | 27 | 14 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 112 | 99 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 172 | 255 | 303 | 558 | 131 | 240 | 37 | 10 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 84 | 73 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 219 | 321 | 397 | 719 | 178 | 296 | 35 | 12 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 75 | 66 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 106 | 213 | 152 | 365 | 45 | 164 | 37 | 12 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 280 | 250 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 80 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 176 | 256 | 264 | 520 | 88 | 236 | 29 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 215 | 191 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 238 | 194 | 432 | 47 | 200 | 29 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 300 | 268 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 100 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 146 | 226 | 235 | 461 | 90 | 193 | 33 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 117 | 105 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 267 | 267 | 534 | 76 | 252 | 27 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 160 | 139 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 37 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 129 | 239 | 187 | 426 | 58 | 167 | 23 | 11 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 160 | 131 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 30 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 198 | 340 | 305 | 645 | 107 | 240 | 19 | 16 | 303 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 216 | 184 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 29 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 190 | 310 | 255 | 566 | 65 | 221 | 13 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 216 | 175 | 55 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 24 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 314 | 444 | 451 | 896 | 137 | 351 | 11 | 14 | 407 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 362 | 305 | 63 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 50 | 96 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 207 | 324 | 331 | 655 | 125 | 275 | 27 | 14 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Daytona Tortugas | — | 362 | 283 | 70 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 72 | 73 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 247 | 405 | 403 | 808 | 155 | 304 | 20 | 20 | 367 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 296 | 260 | 43 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 107 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 165 | 262 | 288 | 550 | 123 | 236 | 36 | 11 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 296 | 249 | 50 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 44 | 84 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 201 | 323 | 345 | 669 | 145 | 258 | 28 | 15 | 306 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 280 | 250 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 80 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 176 | 256 | 264 | 520 | 88 | 243 | 29 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 280 | 237 | 47 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 63 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 198 | 314 | 308 | 622 | 110 | 250 | 22 | 14 | 287 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 215 | 191 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 238 | 194 | 432 | 47 | 209 | 29 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 215 | 182 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 51 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 294 | 242 | 536 | 71 | 223 | 24 | 14 | 258 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 300 | 268 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 100 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 146 | 226 | 235 | 461 | 90 | 205 | 33 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 300 | 254 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 78 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 193 | 307 | 311 | 618 | 118 | 249 | 26 | 12 | 285 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 117 | 105 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 267 | 267 | 534 | 76 | 260 | 27 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 117 | 101 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 328 | 317 | 644 | 89 | 293 | 22 | 11 | 297 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 160 | 139 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 37 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 129 | 239 | 187 | 426 | 58 | 163 | 23 | 11 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 216 | 182 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 29 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 192 | 310 | 258 | 568 | 66 | 217 | 13 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 362 | 306 | 63 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 50 | 96 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 206 | 324 | 330 | 654 | 124 | 270 | 27 | 14 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 296 | 260 | 43 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 107 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 165 | 262 | 288 | 550 | 123 | 236 | 36 | 11 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 280 | 251 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 80 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 175 | 256 | 263 | 519 | 88 | 236 | 29 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 215 | 190 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 238 | 195 | 433 | 47 | 200 | 29 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 300 | 269 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 100 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 145 | 226 | 234 | 461 | 89 | 193 | 33 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 117 | 105 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 267 | 267 | 534 | 76 | 252 | 27 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 215 | 190 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 238 | 195 | 433 | 47 | 200 | 29 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 300 | 269 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 100 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 145 | 226 | 234 | 461 | 89 | 193 | 33 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 117 | 105 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 267 | 267 | 534 | 76 | 252 | 27 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 2% | 200 | 180 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 52 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 268 | 282 | 550 | 90 | 253 | 26 | 8 | 252 | 57 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 269 | 282 | 551 | 88 | 256 | 50 | 0 | 253 | 57 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 27% | 128 | 116 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 268 | 283 | 552 | 91 | 254 | 26 | 8 | 253 | 58 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 27% | 34 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 270 | 284 | 553 | 89 | 257 | 26 | 9 | 254 | 58 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 34 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 235 | 194 | 429 | 32 | 227 | 26 | 9 | 254 | 49 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 95 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 172 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 234 | 192 | 426 | 32 | 226 | 26 | 9 | 254 | 49 | -33 | +0 | -4 | +12 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2158 | 1894 | 327 | 64 | 8 | 30 | 218 | 598 | 29 | 30 | 15 | 173 | 268 | 262 | 531 | 90 | 232 | 28 | 10 | 241 | 49 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 98 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 66 | 180 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 172 | 268 | 260 | 528 | 88 | 231 | 28 | 10 | 241 | 49 | -33 | +1 | -2 | +12 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 117 PAwOBA .293 → .235 (−57)K% 22.2% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 18.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 6.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .293 → .235; ISO .089 → .074; BABIP .293 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 300 PAwOBA .281 → .207 (−74)K% 26.0% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.00% | ÷1.023 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷0.965 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 7.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×0.953 | ×0.978 | 14.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.68% | ÷1.066 | ×0.780 | ×0.953 | ×0.978 | 3.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷0.996 | ×0.850 | ×0.953 | ×0.978 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.41% | ÷0.930 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 3.15% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .281 → .207; ISO .118 → .097; BABIP .249 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 215 PAwOBA .253 → .203 (−50)K% 23.7% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.72% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.42% | ÷0.970 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 10.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.56% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 16.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.82% | ÷1.236 | ×0.910 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 2.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.53% | ÷1.089 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.14% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 93, 2B 147, 3B 100, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .253 → .203; ISO .071 → .054; BABIP .223 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 280 PAwOBA .283 → .235 (−48)K% 22.5% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.50% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.57% | ÷1.069 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 8.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 16.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 6.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.86% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 92, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .283 → .235; ISO .110 → .094; BABIP .250 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 112 PAwOBA .293 → .247 (−46)K% 30.4% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.36% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.019 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 9.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.33% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×1.042 | 17.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.084 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | ×1.042 | 2.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | ×1.022 | ×1.042 | 1.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.990 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 5.61% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 82, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .293 → .247; ISO .170 → .148; BABIP .250 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 84 PAwOBA .390 → .307 (−83)K% 28.6% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.047 | ×1.270 | — | — | 34.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.48% | ÷0.958 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 11.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 24.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.217 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 2.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.87% | ÷1.058 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 8.32% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 143, 3B 106, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .390 → .307; ISO .243 → .177; BABIP .341 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 75 PAwOBA .228 → .178 (−51)K% 28.0% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷1.021 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.33% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | — | 12.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.07% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.039 | — | 16.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | — | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | ×1.039 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.883 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.21% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 103, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .228 → .178; ISO .048 → .041; BABIP .175 → .164. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADaytona Tortugas · 362 PAwOBA .362 → .295 (−67)K% 20.2% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.17% | ÷1.038 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.89% | ÷1.009 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 13.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.52% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.015 | 17.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.015 | 8.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.48% | ÷0.944 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.015 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.969 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 89, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .362 → .295; ISO .155 → .133; BABIP .304 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .