Bryan Mejia
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | A+Potomac Natio… | 417 | .234/.272/.319 | 5 | 7 | 11 | — | .173/.198/.229 |
| 2018 | 24 | A+Potomac Natio… | 419 | .265/.312/.384 | 6 | 8 | 45 | — | .209/.239/.296 |
| 2019 | 25 | AA/A+2 orgs | 180 | .161/.175/.270 | 2 | 4 | -17 | — | .126/.135/.206 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 17 | ROK | DSL Nationals | — | 174 | 160 | 32 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 247 | 331 | 578 | 131 | 244 | 20 | 5 | 251 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | — | 216 | 201 | 48 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 239 | 282 | 368 | 650 | 129 | 304 | 21 | 5 | 284 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 179 | 168 | 44 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 262 | 295 | 381 | 676 | 119 | 306 | 14 | 2 | 295 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 255 | 238 | 82 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 50 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 345 | 371 | 555 | 926 | 210 | 418 | 20 | 2 | 392 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 465 | 427 | 103 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 98 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 241 | 282 | 347 | 628 | 105 | 301 | 21 | 5 | 273 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 417 | 385 | 90 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 104 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 234 | 272 | 319 | 591 | 86 | 305 | 25 | 5 | 259 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 419 | 388 | 103 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 81 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 265 | 312 | 384 | 696 | 119 | 317 | 19 | 5 | 308 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 79 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 182 | 192 | 299 | 491 | 117 | 277 | 37 | 1 | 212 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 101 | 97 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 144 | 162 | 247 | 409 | 103 | 176 | 22 | 2 | 176 | -28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 174 | 163 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 129 | 165 | 202 | 367 | 74 | 162 | 25 | 3 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 216 | 204 | 31 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 55 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 152 | 188 | 230 | 418 | 78 | 201 | 25 | 4 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 179 | 169 | 33 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 36 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 195 | 227 | 278 | 505 | 83 | 238 | 20 | 1 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 255 | 240 | 69 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 69 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 287 | 310 | 454 | 765 | 167 | 366 | 27 | 1 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 465 | 436 | 90 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 143 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 206 | 233 | 284 | 517 | 78 | 281 | 31 | 3 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 417 | 393 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 153 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 173 | 198 | 229 | 427 | 56 | 258 | 37 | 3 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 419 | 398 | 83 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 115 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 209 | 239 | 296 | 536 | 88 | 269 | 27 | 3 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 79 | 77 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 156 | 167 | 247 | 413 | 91 | 258 | 46 | 1 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 101 | 98 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 102 | 111 | 173 | 285 | 71 | 146 | 32 | 1 | 127 | -28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 174 | 163 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 129 | 165 | 202 | 367 | 74 | 171 | 25 | 3 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Nationals | — | 174 | 160 | 32 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 247 | 331 | 578 | 131 | 244 | 20 | 5 | 251 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 216 | 204 | 31 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 55 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 152 | 188 | 230 | 418 | 78 | 205 | 25 | 4 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Nationals | — | 216 | 201 | 48 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 239 | 282 | 368 | 650 | 129 | 304 | 21 | 5 | 284 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 179 | 169 | 33 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 36 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 195 | 227 | 278 | 505 | 83 | 246 | 20 | 1 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Nationals | — | 179 | 168 | 44 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 262 | 295 | 381 | 676 | 119 | 306 | 14 | 2 | 295 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 255 | 240 | 69 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 69 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 287 | 310 | 454 | 765 | 167 | 387 | 27 | 1 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 255 | 238 | 82 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 50 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 345 | 371 | 555 | 926 | 210 | 418 | 20 | 2 | 392 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 465 | 436 | 90 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 143 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 206 | 233 | 284 | 517 | 78 | 296 | 31 | 3 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 465 | 427 | 103 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 98 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 241 | 282 | 347 | 628 | 105 | 301 | 21 | 5 | 273 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 417 | 393 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 153 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 173 | 198 | 229 | 427 | 56 | 271 | 37 | 3 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 417 | 385 | 90 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 104 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 234 | 272 | 319 | 591 | 86 | 305 | 25 | 5 | 259 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 419 | 398 | 83 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 115 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 209 | 239 | 296 | 536 | 88 | 276 | 27 | 3 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 419 | 388 | 103 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 81 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 265 | 312 | 384 | 696 | 119 | 317 | 19 | 5 | 308 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 180 | 175 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 67 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 126 | 136 | 200 | 336 | 74 | 196 | 37 | 1 | 143 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 180 | 174 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 161 | 175 | 270 | 445 | 109 | 215 | 28 | 2 | 192 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 174 | 165 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 127 | 165 | 200 | 365 | 73 | 162 | 25 | 3 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 216 | 205 | 31 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 55 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 151 | 188 | 229 | 417 | 78 | 201 | 25 | 4 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 179 | 170 | 33 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 36 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 194 | 227 | 276 | 504 | 82 | 238 | 20 | 1 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 255 | 245 | 69 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 69 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 282 | 310 | 445 | 755 | 163 | 366 | 27 | 1 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 465 | 447 | 90 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 143 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 201 | 233 | 277 | 510 | 76 | 281 | 31 | 3 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 417 | 402 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 153 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 169 | 198 | 224 | 421 | 55 | 258 | 37 | 3 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 419 | 400 | 83 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 115 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 207 | 239 | 295 | 534 | 87 | 269 | 27 | 3 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 180 | 176 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 67 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 125 | 136 | 199 | 334 | 74 | 195 | 37 | 1 | 143 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2305 | 2178 | 417 | 78 | 30 | 16 | 58 | 681 | 18 | 74 | 43 | 191 | 219 | 277 | 496 | 85 | 267 | 30 | 3 | 212 | 30 | -193 | -2 | +0 | +8 | +50 | -14.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 614 | 118 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 192 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 192 | 219 | 279 | 497 | 86 | 268 | 30 | 2 | 212 | 30 | -54 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 A+Potomac Nationals · 101 PAwOBA .171 → .127 (−45)K% 21.8% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.78% | ÷0.983 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.98% | ÷1.023 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 1.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 9.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.928 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 3.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.67% | ÷1.079 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 1.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.988 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 86, 3B 116, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .171 → .127; ISO .103 → .074; BABIP .176 → .146. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAHarrisburg Senators · 79 PAwOBA .206 → .163 (−43)K% 36.7% → 45.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.71% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.27% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 0.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 18.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.985 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 3.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 3.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.46% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .206 → .163; ISO .117 → .083; BABIP .277 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Potomac Nationals · 419 PAwOBA .303 → .234 (−69)K% 19.3% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.33% | ÷0.998 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.25% | ÷1.013 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 3.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.48% | ÷0.992 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 19.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.12% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 6.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.95% | ÷1.017 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 1.71% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .303 → .234; ISO .119 → .090; BABIP .317 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Potomac Nationals · 417 PAwOBA .252 → .184 (−68)K% 24.9% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.94% | ÷0.963 | ×1.420 | — | — | 36.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.08% | ÷0.982 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 2.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.24% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.20% | ÷1.050 | ×0.940 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 21.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.69% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 4.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 0.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.78% | ÷1.368 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 1.17% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .252 → .184; ISO .086 → .056; BABIP .305 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Potomac Nationals · 465 PAwOBA .268 → .222 (−46)K% 21.1% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.08% | ÷0.974 | ×1.420 | — | — | 30.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.73% | ÷1.061 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 2.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.19% | ÷0.966 | ×0.940 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 21.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.78% | ÷1.010 | ×0.830 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.975 | ×0.800 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 1.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.22% | ÷1.025 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 1.08% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 93, 2B 102, 3B 95, K 95, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .268 → .222; ISO .105 → .083; BABIP .301 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AHagerstown Suns · 255 PAwOBA .383 → .314 (−69)K% 19.6% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.61% | ÷0.971 | ×1.340 | — | — | 27.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.96% | ÷1.054 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 1.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.13% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.015 | 24.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.04% | ÷0.992 | ×0.820 | ×1.006 | ×1.015 | 7.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.79% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.006 | ×1.015 | 4.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.66% | ÷0.979 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 2.26% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 94, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .383 → .314; ISO .210 → .168; BABIP .418 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ROKGCL Nationals · 179 PAwOBA .289 → .212 (−77)K% 14.0% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.97% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 1.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.79% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.977 | ×1.008 | 17.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.977 | ×1.008 | 2.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.977 | ×1.008 | 3.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .289 → .212; ISO .119 → .081; BABIP .306 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 DSLDSL Nationals · 216 PAwOBA .279 → .181 (−98)K% 20.8% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.46% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.012 | ×1.008 | 13.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.012 | ×1.008 | 3.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.012 | ×1.008 | 3.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .279 → .181; ISO .129 → .077; BABIP .304 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).