Brian Navarreto

1B Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 32 R/R 6'1" / 233 lbs AAA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.607 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	AAA/ROK/INTL2 orgs	273	.224/.286/.293	1	0	41	—	.193/.230/.253
2025	30	AAA/INTL2 orgs	241	.207/.295/.327	6	3	40	—	.182/.240/.314
2025	30	MLBMIA	15	.286/.286/.643	1	0	153	0.6
2026	31	AAAMIA	86	.211/.294/.329	1	1	32	—	.154/.224/.244
2026	31	MLBMIA	61	.135/.196/.250	1	0	19	-0.7
2027PROJ45% MLB	32	MLBMIA	56	.194/.247/.323	1	1	65	-0.2
2028PROJ48% MLB	33	MLBMIA	50	.189/.242/.311	1	0	60	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.607First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.3M2031Ext$0.4M2032Ext$0.7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Z-Con%75

K%47

Speed34

Max EV26

BB%15

Whiff%15

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsChristian Bethancourt (age 32) · Brett Carroll (age 30) · Chris Truby (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .247 / .323

PA56

HR1

K%27

BB%5

BABIP239

ISO96

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2020-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.139

POWER50

Barrel%

548.8

Avg EV

1081.5

Bat Spd

6673.0

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

2226.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.607 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	18	ROK	GCL Twins	—	158	137	31	10	0	3	15	35	4	3	1	226	321	365	685	139	280	22	9	309	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	116	108	21	8	1	3	7	33	0	0	0	194	243	370	614	176	247	28	6	269	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	319	299	64	11	1	2	14	61	2	0	0	214	254	278	532	64	262	19	4	239	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	248	229	45	8	0	2	11	51	5	0	0	197	249	258	507	61	242	21	4	232	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	117	102	21	2	0	2	9	18	2	0	0	206	281	284	565	78	229	15	8	255	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	237	219	46	11	0	2	11	45	3	1	1	210	258	288	545	78	253	19	5	245	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	380	357	88	19	0	4	14	57	6	0	1	246	286	333	620	87	283	15	4	278	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	97	92	26	5	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	283	298	337	635	54	310	10	2	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	180	160	28	5	0	6	8	31	3	0	0	175	227	319	545	144	176	17	4	234	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	119	110	18	2	0	1	6	29	1	2	0	164	214	209	423	45	210	24	5	194	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	20	17	7	6	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	412	500	941	1.441	529	400	5	15	594	288	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	113	98	21	3	1	5	12	34	1	0	0	214	306	418	725	204	262	30	11	317	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	87	85	15	3	0	4	1	12	1	0	0	176	195	353	548	176	159	14	1	240	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	73	65	9	2	0	3	4	11	1	0	1	138	200	308	508	169	113	15	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	142	130	35	1	0	4	10	20	1	1	0	269	326	369	695	100	290	14	7	313	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	218	189	52	9	0	7	24	31	4	0	1	275	369	434	803	159	296	14	11	360	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	301	266	62	14	2	7	27	64	2	0	0	233	306	380	686	147	278	21	9	304	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	117	97	24	8	0	0	12	15	4	0	0	247	354	330	684	82	286	13	10	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	159	147	33	5	1	1	10	32	0	0	0	224	272	293	565	68	278	20	6	255	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	ROK	ACL Brewers	—	16	15	3	2	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	200	250	333	583	133	300	31	6	261	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	98	84	19	5	0	0	8	17	3	0	1	226	316	286	602	60	279	17	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	15	14	4	2	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	286	286	643	929	357	273	20	0	370	153	+1	+0	-0	+5	+0	0.6
2025	30	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	176	153	35	5	1	6	16	39	2	3	0	229	310	392	702	163	257	22	9	307	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	65	55	8	0	0	0	7	10	1	0	0	145	254	145	399		174	15	11	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	61	52	7	3	0	1	2	21	2	0	0	135	196	250	446	115	194	34	3	189	19	-6	+0	+0	-3	+1	-0.7
2026	31	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	86	76	16	6	0	1	5	20	4	1	1	211	294	329	623	118	268	23	6	283	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	76	66	11	5	0	2	2	24	2	0	0	167	214	333	548	167	214	32	3	225	38	-6	+0	-0	+2	+2	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	158	143	21	6	0	2	9	50	4	3	1	147	218	231	449	84	210	32	6	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	116	111	14	5	1	2	4	47	0	0	0	126	157	243	400	117	182	41	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	319	303	54	9	1	1	10	86	2	0	0	178	210	224	434	46	236	27	3	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	248	231	39	7	0	2	9	74	5	0	0	169	216	225	441	56	226	30	4	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	117	105	21	2	0	2	7	22	2	0	0	200	263	276	539	76	215	19	6	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	237	223	39	8	0	2	7	68	3	1	1	175	210	238	448	63	230	29	3	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	380	362	77	18	0	3	9	73	6	0	1	213	244	287	531	75	254	19	2	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	180	163	25	4	0	5	6	40	3	0	0	153	198	270	468	117	157	22	3	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	113	102	19	3	1	4	8	41	1	0	0	186	252	353	605	167	234	36	7	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	87	85	12	2	0	3	1	15	1	0	0	141	161	271	432	129	144	17	1	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	142	133	31	1	0	3	7	25	1	1	0	233	277	308	585	75	263	18	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	301	277	57	12	2	5	18	79	2	0	0	206	259	318	577	112	260	26	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	159	151	30	4	1	1	7	39	0	0	0	199	234	258	492	60	250	25	4	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	—	16	15	2	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	133	188	200	388	67	200	44	6	139	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	15	14	4	2	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	286	286	643	929	357	273	20	0	394	153	+1	+0	-0	+5	+0	0.6
2025	30	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	176	159	29	4	1	5	10	48	2	3	0	182	240	314	554	132	206	27	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	61	52	7	3	0	1	2	21	2	0	0	135	196	250	446	115	194	34	3	197	19	-6	+0	+0	-3	+1	-0.7
2026	31	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	86	78	12	4	0	1	3	24	4	1	1	154	224	244	467	90	214	28	3	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	158	143	21	6	0	2	9	50	4	3	1	147	218	231	449	84	207	32	6	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	—	158	137	31	10	0	3	15	35	4	3	1	226	321	365	685	139	280	22	9	309	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	116	111	14	5	1	2	4	47	0	0	0	126	157	243	400	117	190	41	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	116	108	21	8	1	3	7	33	0	0	0	194	243	370	614	176	247	28	6	269	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	319	303	54	9	1	1	10	86	2	0	0	178	210	224	434	46	244	27	3	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	319	299	64	11	1	2	14	61	2	0	0	214	254	278	532	64	262	19	4	239	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	248	231	39	7	0	2	9	74	5	0	0	169	216	225	441	56	236	30	4	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ RAW	Fort Myers Miracle	—	248	229	45	8	0	2	11	51	5	0	0	197	249	258	507	61	242	21	4	232	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	354	328	58	10	0	3	14	89	5	1	1	177	222	235	457	58	230	25	4	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	354	321	67	13	0	4	20	63	5	1	1	209	265	287	552	78	245	18	6	248	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	477	454	97	22	0	4	11	91	6	0	1	214	242	289	531	75	257	19	2	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	477	449	114	24	0	4	16	67	6	0	1	254	289	334	623	80	289	14	3	278	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	299	276	42	7	0	8	9	66	4	2	0	152	190	264	455	112	166	22	3	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	299	270	46	7	0	7	14	60	4	2	0	170	221	274	496	104	189	20	5	218	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	INTL MLE	Indios de Mayaguez	—	20	17	7	6	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	412	500	941	1.441	529	400	5	15	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	INTL RAW	Indios de Mayaguez	—	20	17	7	6	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	412	500	941	1.441	529	400	5	15	594	288	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	273	253	42	7	1	9	12	77	3	0	1	166	213	308	521	142	193	28	4	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	273	248	45	8	1	12	17	57	3	0	1	181	243	367	609	185	180	21	6	266	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	360	336	79	2	0	7	17	63	5	1	1	235	282	304	586	68	269	18	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	360	319	87	10	0	11	34	51	5	1	1	273	352	408	759	135	293	14	9	341	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	418	379	80	17	3	7	25	109	6	0	0	211	271	327	598	116	272	26	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	418	363	86	22	2	7	39	79	6	0	0	237	320	366	686	129	280	19	9	305	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	273	255	48	8	1	1	11	72	3	0	1	188	230	239	470	51	255	26	4	203	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	273	246	55	12	1	1	19	54	3	0	1	224	286	293	579	69	280	20	7	263	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	256	231	44	8	1	8	14	68	3	3	0	190	246	338	584	147	222	27	5	250	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	256	222	47	7	1	7	23	52	3	3	0	212	294	347	641	135	235	20	9	283	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	147	130	21	8	0	2	5	45	6	1	1	162	227	269	496	108	224	31	3	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	147	128	23	9	0	2	7	41	6	1	1	180	255	297	552	117	241	28	5	244	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	158	144	21	6	0	2	9	50	4	3	1	146	218	229	447	83	210	32	6	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	116	111	14	5	1	2	4	47	0	0	0	126	157	243	400	117	182	41	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	319	304	54	9	1	1	10	86	2	0	0	178	210	224	433	46	236	27	3	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	248	232	39	7	0	2	9	74	5	0	0	168	216	224	440	56	226	30	4	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	354	332	58	10	0	3	14	89	5	1	1	175	222	232	454	57	225	25	4	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	477	457	97	22	0	4	11	91	6	0	1	212	242	287	529	74	254	19	2	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	299	284	42	7	0	8	9	66	4	2	0	148	190	257	447	109	157	22	3	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	273	256	42	7	1	9	12	77	3	0	1	164	213	305	517	141	195	28	4	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	360	335	79	2	0	7	17	63	5	1	1	236	282	304	587	69	263	18	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	418	384	80	17	3	7	25	109	6	0	0	208	271	323	594	115	260	26	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	273	257	48	8	1	1	11	72	3	0	1	187	230	237	468	51	245	26	4	203	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	256	237	44	8	1	8	14	68	3	3	0	186	246	329	575	143	211	27	5	250	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	147	135	21	8	0	2	5	45	6	1	1	156	227	259	486	104	206	31	3	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	273	257	48	8	1	1	11	72	3	0	1	187	230	237	468	51	245	26	4	203	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	256	237	44	8	1	8	14	68	3	3	0	186	246	329	575	143	211	27	5	250	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	147	135	21	8	0	2	5	45	6	1	1	156	227	259	486	104	206	31	3	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	MIA	45%	200	185	37	8	1	5	9	52	4	2	1	201	254	339	593	138	248	26	4	264	65	-8	+0	+0	-4	+4	-0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	MIA	45%	56	52	9	2	0	1	3	15	1	1	0	194	247	323	570	130	239	27	5	255	65	-2	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	105	97	19	4	0	3	5	28	2	0	0	196	249	327	575	130	244	27	5	257	60	-5	+0	-4	-2	+2	-0.9
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	50	47	9	2	0	1	2	13	1	0	0	189	242	311	554	122	235	26	4	248	60	-2	+0	-2	-1	+1	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	126	113	20	7	0	3	4	37	3	0	0	177	225	319	544	142	227	29	3	234	36	-8	+0	-2	+1	+3	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	103	36	0	15	21	191	15	0	0	177	225	316	540	139	227	29	3	234	36	-41	+0	-11	+5	+14	-3.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3947	3659	687	131	8	63	164	998	56	12	7	188	234	280	513	92	237	25	4	221	36	-16	+0	-4	-2	+7	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	113	22	1	10	27	164	9	2	1	187	233	277	510	90	237	25	4	221	36	-33	+0	-9	-5	+14	-3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 86 PAwOBA .279 → .215 (−64)K% 23.3% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.26%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.81%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	3.82%
HBP% /PA	4.65%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	4.16%
Singles /BIP	16.07%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.951	×0.952	13.53%
Doubles /BIP	10.71%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.951	×0.952	8.05%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.951	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.79%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	1.19%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .279 → .215; ISO .118 → .084; BABIP .268 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 176 PAwOBA .307 → .238 (−69)K% 22.2% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.16%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	27.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.027	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.87%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.03%
Singles /BIP	20.18%	÷1.051	×0.930	×0.973	×0.962	16.70%
Doubles /BIP	4.39%	÷1.023	×0.830	×0.973	×0.962	3.33%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.973	×0.962	0.69%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷0.903	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.93%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .307 → .238; ISO .163 → .125; BABIP .257 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 159 PAwOBA .250 → .209 (−42)K% 20.1% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.13%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.29%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.16%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.61%	÷0.951	×0.930	×0.975	×0.972	20.95%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷1.010	×0.830	×0.975	×0.972	3.39%
Triples /BIP	0.87%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.975	×0.972	0.70%
Home runs /BIP	0.87%	÷0.909	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 90, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .250 → .209; ISO .068 → .052; BABIP .278 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Brewers · 16 PAwOBA .254 → .139 (−115)K% 31.2% → 44.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.25%	÷1.002	×1.440	—	—	44.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷1.014	×0.620	—	×0.940	3.59%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.015	×0.820	—	×0.940	7.60%
Doubles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.088	×0.720	—	×0.940	12.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.947	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (10.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .254 → .139; ISO .133 → .068; BABIP .300 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 301 PAwOBA .299 → .256 (−43)K% 21.3% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.26%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	26.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.97%	÷0.995	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.11%
HBP% /PA	0.66%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.61%
Singles /BIP	19.31%	÷0.953	×0.930	×1.014	×0.982	18.77%
Doubles /BIP	6.93%	÷0.971	×0.830	×1.014	×0.982	5.90%
Triples /BIP	0.99%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.014	×0.982	1.06%
Home runs /BIP	3.47%	÷0.905	×0.700	—	×0.982	2.63%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 96, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .299 → .256; ISO .147 → .121; BABIP .278 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANashville Sounds · 142 PAwOBA .307 → .259 (−48)K% 14.1% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.08%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	17.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.04%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.85%
HBP% /PA	0.70%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.66%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.993	×0.992	25.10%
Doubles /BIP	0.91%	÷0.952	×0.830	×0.993	×0.992	0.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.993	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.64%	÷0.946	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.67%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .307 → .259; ISO .100 → .074; BABIP .290 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 113 PAwOBA .314 → .253 (−62)K% 30.1% → 36.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.09%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	36.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.62%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.40%
HBP% /PA	0.88%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.83%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷0.971	×0.930	×0.965	×1.003	17.37%
Doubles /BIP	4.69%	÷0.933	×0.830	×0.965	×1.003	4.04%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷1.109	×0.920	×0.965	×1.003	1.25%
Home runs /BIP	7.81%	÷0.886	×0.700	—	×1.003	6.19%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 122, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .314 → .253; ISO .204 → .160; BABIP .262 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 87 PAwOBA .232 → .188 (−44)K% 13.8% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.79%	÷0.973	×1.220	—	—	17.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	1.15%	÷0.985	×0.690	—	×0.978	0.79%
HBP% /PA	1.15%	—	×0.850	—	×0.978	0.96%
Singles /BIP	10.96%	÷1.011	×0.940	×1.032	×0.978	10.29%
Doubles /BIP	4.11%	÷1.026	×0.870	×1.032	×0.978	3.52%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.032	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.48%	÷1.011	×0.780	—	×0.978	4.14%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 102, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .232 → .188; ISO .176 → .132; BABIP .159 → .144. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brian Navarreto (OGILVIE)	32	45	50	50	45	199/252/336	137	248	3	1	26%	5%	65	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Christian Bethancourt 2024 · MLB	32	45→53	51→50	48→50	39	235/270/392	157	286	19	6	26%	4%	84	+0.1	203/239/343	140	254	18	8	28%	4%	61	-1.5	175/207/299	124	214	18	9	28%	3%	36	-1.2
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→46	47→55	47→50	43	212/274/346	134	270	15	11	27%	6%	74	-0.5	204/269/335	131	275	16	10	30%	7%	70	-0.8	176/254/321	145	220	21	11	30%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Chris Truby 2006 · MLB	32	38→43	50	41→45	43	203/249/352	149	239	19	4	25%	6%	67	-1.1	200/247/318	118	259	13	9	27%	5%	57	-1.8	168/217/261	93	221	9	11	28%	5%	32	-2.3
✕Webster Rivas 2022 · MLB	31	44	44→40	47→40	47	219/282/328	109	274	12	4	24%	8%	74	-0.6	219/296/313	94	291	7	6	25%	10%	75	-0.5	206/296/269	64	282	2	2	25%	11%	63	-0.7
✕Earl Snyder 2007 · AAA	31	41	51→50	46→30	43	218/264/377	159	249	20	3	22%	5%	78	-0.3	202/252/333	131	248	15	4	25%	6%	63	-1.3	169/218/281	112	204	14	0	25%	5%	37	-2.4
✕Deven Marrero 2022 · MLB	31	40→50	45	48→50	41	201/260/316	115	284	13	8	33%	7%	62	-1.4	214/276/322	108	290	11	12	28%	8%	70	-0.9	194/257/262	68	256	7	15	26%	8%	45	-0.8
✕Carlos Mendez 2006 · MLB	32	45	41→45	47→30	44	221/258/317	97	249	9	6	16%	4%	61	-1.5	235/255/326	91	262	9	4	14%	2%	61	-1.5	240/253/321	80	266	8	1	13%	1%	58	-1.0
●Reynaldo Rodriguez 2017 · AAA	31	42→45	48→55	49→50	45	217/265/363	145	251	16	10	21%	6%	75	-0.5	230/282/384	154	278	19	14	24%	6%	86	+0.3	288/324/555	267	305	41	11	20%	4%	144	+2.0
✕Paulo Orlando 2019 · MLB	33	46→56	43→45	48→55	39	228/265/337	110	283	10	8	24%	4%	68	-1.0	201/251/327	126	259	13	9	27%	4%	62	-1.4	170/222/294	124	221	13	8	29%	3%	42	-1.8
✕Stephen Cardullo 2018 · MLB	30	42→45	45→50	47→45	48	211/269/334	123	240	12	7	18%	7%	70	-0.8	217/271/331	114	273	9	9	23%	6%	69	-0.9	215/258/321	105	282	5	7	24%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Matt McBride 2017 · MLB	32	45→52	46→55	45→40	44	224/269/357	133	259	13	5	20%	5%	75	-0.5	205/258/364	159	238	19	4	23%	6%	73	-0.6	181/236/353	172	199	22	1	23%	5%	61	-0.6
✕Chris Aguila 2011 · MLB	32	40→50	48→55	47→50	43	209/263/350	141	265	16	8	28%	6%	71	-0.8	214/270/351	137	288	16	7	30%	6%	74	-0.5	209/268/344	135	281	17	5	31%	6%	69	-0.6
✕Jeff Bailey 2011 · MLB	32	45→48	47→55	49→45	48	224/301/362	138	273	14	5	23%	8%	88	+0.5	212/284/341	129	268	12	8	25%	7%	78	-0.3	193/269/321	128	242	12	7	25%	8%	64	-1.1
✕Pete Kozma 2021 · MLB	33	43→47	43→45	50	46	211/265/327	116	247	10	8	19%	6%	66	-1.1	201/248/289	88	257	6	8	24%	5%	51	-2.2	182/225/251	69	236	3	6	23%	4%	30	-3.1
✕Michael Ryan 2009 · AAA	32	42→46	51→50	44→30	39	223/259/384	161	270	19	4	26%	4%	78	-0.3	226/267/356	130	267	13	5	20%	5%	74	-0.6	221/263/337	116	258	10	3	19%	5%	68	-0.7
✕David Matranga 2009 · AAA	32	41	46→45	49→50	42	209/273/332	123	275	14	10	29%	6%	72	-0.7	219/299/343	124	297	12	9	28%	9%	84	+0.1	200/298/309	110	273	11	5	28%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Mario Lisson 2016 · AAA	32	46→49	46→50	48→55	43	229/286/350	120	286	15	9	25%	6%	80	-0.2	213/281/336	123	284	13	8	28%	8%	75	-0.5	195/272/320	125	261	14	6	29%	8%	66	-0.7
✕Robert Andino 2017 · MLB	33	41→51	44→45	50	38	209/248/322	112	275	12	8	28%	5%	58	-1.7	215/258/341	126	290	14	9	30%	5%	67	-1.1	188/222/301	114	246	15	2	30%	4%	41	-1.0
✕Bobby Smith 2006 · AAA	32	47	45→50	54→50	44	233/282/351	118	279	13	11	22%	6%	78	-0.3	225/270/355	130	302	14	11	29%	6%	75	-0.5	204/236/338	134	293	13	7	35%	4%	55	-0.7
✕Chris Dominguez 2018 · MLB	31	44→50	47→50	50	32	222/257/357	135	300	16	13	32%	3%	70	-0.8	218/261/346	128	300	14	13	31%	4%	70	-0.9	194/235/311	117	267	12	12	31%	3%	51	-1.1