Cristian Mena
P
Reno Aces
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 170 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.7 · 2028
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 131 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.69
FIP4.69
K%22.8%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP131
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+0.8 (41%)
CH+0.5 (15%)
SI (12%)
CU (33%)
SL (11%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 13 | 12 | 48 | 230 | 62 | 21 | 8 | 92% | 3.7 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 7.82 | 5.53 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 13 | 12 | 48 | 230 | 62 | 21 | 8 | 92% | 3.7 | 27.0% | 9.1% | 17.8% | 3.5% | 7.82 | 3.99 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 104 | 439 | 126 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 4.3 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 1.9% | 3.80 | 3.69 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 104 | 439 | 126 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 4.3 | 28.7% | 8.7% | 20.0% | 1.6% | 3.80 | 2.65 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 134 | 580 | 156 | 64 | 18 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.73 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 134 | 580 | 156 | 64 | 18 | 100% | 5.0 | 26.9% | 11.0% | 15.9% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 3.95 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 99 | 439 | 104 | 49 | 17 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.47 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 99 | 439 | 104 | 49 | 17 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.7% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 3.9% | 4.83 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 9 | 51 | 218 | 60 | 19 | 7 | 75% | 4.3 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 4.3% | 4.38 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 9 | 51 | 218 | 60 | 19 | 7 | 75% | 4.3 | 27.5% | 8.7% | 18.8% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 3.65 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 99 | 46 | 14 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 31 | 31 | 174 | 733 | 171 | 71 | 24 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.52 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 30 | 30 | 175 | 739 | 174 | 69 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.43 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 175 | 68 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.39 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 172 | 67 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 171 | 68 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 27 | 27 | 165 | 695 | 162 | 67 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 155 | 653 | 150 | 65 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 3.7% | 4.73 | 4.82 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 144 | 609 | 137 | 62 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 3.9% | 4.91 | 5.02 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 103 | 435 | 101 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 132 | 557 | 131 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.47 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 147 | 57 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.43 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 152 | 642 | 152 | 59 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 157 | 663 | 156 | 62 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.55 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 152 | 642 | 149 | 62 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 4.62 | 4.68 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 139 | 60 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 4.78 | 4.87 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 128 | 58 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 4.96 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 193 | 190 | 1131 | 4777 | 1114 | 458 | 168 | 98% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.28 | +14.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 81 | 30 | 98% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 96 | 92 | 436 | 1906 | 410 | 213 | 63 | 96% | 4.5 | 21.5% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.50 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 42 | 200 | 874 | 188 | 98 | 29 | 96% | 4.5 | 21.5% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cristian Mena (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 3.3% | — | 4.45 | 23.5% | 14.1% | 524 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 83 |
| Glenn Sparkman R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.90 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .296 | 3.61 | 15.9% | 10.9% | 207 | -0.29 | 3.48 | 363 | 83 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 81 |
| Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 81 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 80 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 79 |
| Gus Varland R 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.13 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .294 | 5.81 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 105 | +1.68 | 2.54 | 304 | 79 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 78 |
| Chance Kirby R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 17.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.86 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 166 | +1.60 | 4.26 | 325 | 77 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.11 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .264 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 245 | -1.01 | 3.90 | 264 | 77 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 76 |
| Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.42 | 22.1% | 14.4% | 2.5% | .258 | 3.67 | 18.9% | 11.8% | 126 | -0.75 | 3.27 | 218 | 76 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.78 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | .276 | 5.00 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.22 | 4.22 | 513 | 76 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 76 |
| Angel Jimenez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 194 | 76 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 75 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 74 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 74 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.72 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 4.0% | .307 | 6.57 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 61 | +1.85 | 4.72 | 200 | 74 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 159 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 1.31 | 4.57 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |