Cristian Mena

P Reno Aces

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAARPIL-6040-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	MIX2 levels	27	27	134	4.85	3.95	26.9%	11.0%	—	K 22.0% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.74
2024	21	MIX2 levels	20	20	99	4.83	4.72	23.7%	11.2%	0.8	K 20.7% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.49
2025	22	MIX2 levels	12	9	51	4.38	3.65	27.5%	8.7%	1.1	K 23.3% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.17
2026	23	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	5	5	28	4.36	4.36	23.4%	8.8%	0.3
2028PROJ59% MLB	25	MLBARI	14	14	83	4.22	4.20	23.6%	8.6%	1.1
2029PROJ75% MLB	26	MLBARI	18	18	105	4.19	4.18	23.7%	8.5%	1.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.727First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$4M2030Arb-2$7M2031Ext$8M

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Will Warren (age 24) · Ben Gross (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%23.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP93

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.727 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.4	$10M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$7M	+1.4	$9M	+$4M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$12M		$28M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	13	12	48	230	62	21	8	92%	3.7	18.3%	11.4%	6.9%	4.7%	7.82	5.60	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	13	12	48	230	62	21	8	92%	3.7	27.0%	9.1%	17.8%	3.5%	7.82	3.99	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	104	439	126	38	7	100%	4.3	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	1.9%	3.80	3.70	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	104	439	126	38	7	100%	4.3	28.7%	8.7%	20.0%	1.6%	3.80	2.65	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	134	580	156	64	18	100%	5.0	22.0%	11.8%	10.1%	3.6%	4.85	4.74	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	134	580	156	64	18	100%	5.0	26.9%	11.0%	15.9%	3.1%	4.85	3.95	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	99	439	104	49	17	100%	4.9	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	3.5%	4.83	4.49	+1.0
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	99	439	104	49	17	100%	4.9	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	3.5%	4.83	4.49	+1.0
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	99	439	104	49	17	100%	4.9	23.7%	11.2%	12.5%	3.9%	4.83	4.72	+0.8
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	51	218	60	19	7	75%	4.3	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	3.8%	4.38	4.17	+0.7
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	51	218	60	19	7	75%	4.3	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	3.8%	4.38	4.17	+0.7
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	51	218	60	19	7	75%	4.3	27.5%	8.7%	18.8%	3.2%	4.38	3.65	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	1	10	41	10	6	3	25%	2.4	24.4%	14.6%	9.8%	7.3%	4.66	6.93	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	5	5	28	118	28	10	4	100%	5.6	23.4%	8.8%	14.5%	3.2%	4.36	4.36	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	140	590	139	51	18	100%	5.8	23.6%	8.6%	15.0%	3.1%	4.31	4.29	+1.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	140	590	140	50	18	100%	6.1	23.7%	8.5%	15.2%	3.1%	4.28	4.27	+1.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	132	558	132	48	18	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	3.2%	4.29	4.30	+1.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	126	531	124	46	17	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	3.3%	4.35	4.39	+1.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	117	496	115	44	17	100%	5.9	23.2%	8.9%	14.3%	3.4%	4.45	4.52	+1.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	107	451	103	41	16	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.2%	13.7%	3.6%	4.60	4.70	+0.9
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	96	404	91	38	15	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.5%	12.9%	3.8%	4.78	4.90	+0.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	84	356	78	35	15	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	4.1%	4.99	5.12	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	83	350	83	30	10	100%	5.9	23.6%	8.6%	15.0%	3.0%	4.22	4.20	+1.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	105	443	105	38	13	100%	5.8	23.7%	8.5%	15.2%	3.0%	4.19	4.18	+1.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	110	464	110	40	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	3.0%	4.19	4.20	+1.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	110	464	109	40	14	100%	6.1	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	3.1%	4.25	4.29	+1.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	106	448	104	40	14	100%	5.9	23.2%	8.9%	14.3%	3.2%	4.35	4.42	+1.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	98	414	95	38	14	100%	6.1	22.8%	9.2%	13.7%	3.4%	4.49	4.59	+0.8
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	89	376	84	36	14	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.5%	12.9%	3.6%	4.66	4.78	+0.5
2035	32	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	79	334	73	33	13	100%	6.1	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	3.9%	4.87	5.00	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		134	131	788	3327	770	299	109	98%	5.9	23.2%	9.0%	14.2%	3.3%	4.39	4.09	+12.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	844	195	76	28	98%	5.9	23.2%	9.0%	14.2%	3.3%	4.39	4.09	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		96	92	436	1906	406	202	64	96%	4.5	21.3%	10.6%	10.7%	3.3%	4.87	4.48	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	874	186	93	29	96%	4.5	21.3%	10.6%	10.7%	3.3%	4.87	4.48	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAReno Aces · 45 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.17 (+0.59)K% 27.1% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.08%	—	×0.860	23.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×0.900	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷0.904	×1.100	3.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 96 IPFIP 4.38 → 4.49 (+0.10)K% 24.1% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.06%	—	×0.860	20.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×0.900	9.76%
HR / BF /BF	3.54%	÷1.124	×1.100	3.46%

Result: FIP 4.38 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABirmingham Barons · 114 IPFIP 4.09 → 5.03 (+0.94)K% 27.9% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.87%	—	×0.810	22.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.27%	—	×1.100	12.40%
HR / BF /BF	3.48%	÷1.013	×1.200	4.13%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 4.09 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 20 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.21 (+0.11)K% 21.7% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.860	18.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.78%	—	×0.900	8.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷1.152	×1.100	1.04%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 54 IPFIP 1.90 → 2.79 (+0.89)K% 30.7% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.70%	—	×0.740	22.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.180	8.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.172	×1.300	1.03%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 1.90 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 41 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.79 (+1.12)K% 26.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.26%	—	×0.770	20.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.29%	—	×1.150	14.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.23%	÷0.955	×1.250	2.92%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABirmingham Barons · 10 IPFIP 2.16 → 2.82 (+0.66)K% 28.9% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.89%	—	×0.810	23.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.22%	—	×1.100	2.44%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.056	×1.200	2.52%

Result: FIP 2.16 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL White Sox · 48 IPFIP 3.89 → 5.60 (+1.71)K% 27.0% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.96%	—	×0.680	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.13%	—	×1.250	11.41%
HR / BF /BF	3.48%	÷1.027	×1.400	4.74%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 3.89 → 5.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristian Mena (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.29	23.6%	15.1%	412	-0.07	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	89
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	89
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	86
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	86
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	85
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.10	18.0%	7.8%	304	+1.16	3.61	547	85
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	85
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	85
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	85
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	84
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	84
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	84
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	84
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	84
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	84
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	84
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	84
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	84
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	83
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	117	23.2%	8.9%	1.32	4.46
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*