Cristian Mena — OGILVIE

Cristian Mena P Reno Aces

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2029 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%21.7%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL4050

CMD4550

K†5055

FB+0.8 (41%)

CH+0.5 (15%)

SI (12%)

CU (33%)

SL (11%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.727 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$11M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$14M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$12M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	13	12	48	230	62	21	8	92%	3.7	18.3%	11.4%	6.9%	4.7%	7.82	5.60	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	13	12	48	230	62	21	8	92%	3.7	27.0%	9.1%	17.8%	3.5%	7.82	3.99	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	104	439	126	38	7	100%	4.3	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	1.9%	3.80	3.70	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	104	439	126	38	7	100%	4.3	28.7%	8.7%	20.0%	1.6%	3.80	2.65	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	134	580	156	64	18	100%	5.0	21.9%	11.8%	10.0%	3.6%	4.85	4.75	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	134	580	156	64	18	100%	5.0	21.9%	11.8%	10.0%	3.6%	4.85	4.75	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	134	580	156	64	18	100%	5.0	26.9%	11.0%	15.9%	3.1%	4.85	3.95	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	99	439	104	49	17	100%	4.9	20.0%	9.8%	10.2%	3.5%	4.83	4.55	+0.4
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	99	439	104	49	17	100%	4.9	20.0%	9.8%	10.2%	3.5%	4.83	4.55	+0.4
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	99	439	104	49	17	100%	4.9	23.7%	11.2%	12.5%	3.9%	4.83	4.72	+0.2
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	51	218	60	19	7	75%	4.3	22.5%	7.5%	15.0%	3.8%	4.38	4.24	+0.4
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	51	218	60	19	7	75%	4.3	22.5%	7.5%	15.0%	3.8%	4.38	4.24	+0.4
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	51	218	60	19	7	75%	4.3	27.5%	8.7%	18.8%	3.2%	4.38	3.65	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	1	10	41	10	6	3	25%	2.4	24.4%	14.6%	9.8%	7.3%	4.66	6.93	-0.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	ARI	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	21.7%	9.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.65	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	31	31	174	733	164	66	24	100%	5.6	22.4%	9.0%	13.5%	3.2%	4.54	4.50	+0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	30	30	175	739	168	64	24	100%	5.8	22.8%	8.7%	14.1%	3.2%	4.46	4.42	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	29	29	175	739	170	64	24	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.6%	14.3%	3.2%	4.41	4.38	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	29	29	172	728	167	63	24	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	3.2%	4.42	4.42	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	29	29	172	728	166	64	24	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	3.3%	4.47	4.50	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	27	27	165	695	157	63	24	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.1%	13.5%	3.5%	4.57	4.64	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	155	653	145	61	24	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.7%	4.72	4.81	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	144	609	133	59	24	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.9%	4.90	5.01	-0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	134	564	120	57	23	100%	6.1	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	4.2%	5.10	5.24	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	103	435	98	39	13	100%	5.7	22.4%	9.0%	13.5%	3.1%	4.44	4.40	+0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	23	23	132	557	127	49	17	100%	5.7	22.8%	8.7%	14.1%	3.0%	4.36	4.32	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	24	24	147	621	142	54	19	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.6%	14.3%	3.0%	4.31	4.28	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	25	25	152	642	147	56	20	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	3.1%	4.32	4.32	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	26	26	157	663	151	59	21	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	3.1%	4.37	4.40	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	25	25	152	642	145	58	21	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.1%	13.5%	3.3%	4.46	4.53	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	24	24	144	608	135	57	21	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.5%	4.61	4.70	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	135	570	124	55	21	100%	6.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.7%	4.78	4.89	-0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	127	536	114	54	21	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	3.9%	4.97	5.11	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		214	211	1258	5313	1193	486	177	99%	5.9	22.5%	9.1%	13.3%	3.3%	4.51	4.19	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	77	28	99%	5.9	22.5%	9.1%	13.3%	3.3%	4.51	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		96	92	436	1906	400	202	64	96%	4.5	21.0%	10.6%	10.4%	3.3%	4.87	4.51	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	874	183	93	29	96%	4.5	21.0%	10.6%	10.4%	3.3%	4.87	4.51	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristian Mena (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	21.7%	9.5%	3.3%	—	4.43	22.7%	14.0%	524	-0.22	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	83
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	81
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	81
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	81
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	79
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	78
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	78
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	78
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	78
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	77
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	77
Nick Kingham R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	20.7%	5.4%	2.9%	.330	3.95	18.0%	12.1%	276	+0.34	2.31	363	75
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	75
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	75
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	75
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	75
Gabriel Hughes R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP	5.12	22.2%	10.0%	4.8%	.302	3.83	18.2%	10.6%	201	-1.29	3.10	267	74
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	74
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.0	161	22.4%	9.1%	1.33	4.61
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68