Cristian Mena
P
Reno Aces
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 170 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.4 · 2028
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
xFIP3.01
SIERA3.17
K%22.7%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.6%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
K†5555
FB+0.8 (41%)
CH+0.5 (15%)
SI (12%)
CU (33%)
SL (11%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 13 | 12 | 48 | 230 | 62 | 21 | 8 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 4.6% | 7.82 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 19 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 24 | 24 | 104 | 439 | 126 | 38 | 7 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | 3.80 | 3.70 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 20 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 27 | 27 | 134 | 580 | 156 | 64 | 18 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 21 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 20 | 20 | 99 | 439 | 104 | 49 | 17 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.63 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 12 | 9 | 51 | 218 | 60 | 19 | 7 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 4.38 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 18 | — | 18 | 74 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 59 | 24 | 8 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 61 | 23 | 8 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 61 | 23 | 8 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 61 | 23 | 8 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 59 | — | 59 | 251 | 60 | 23 | 8 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 58 | 23 | 8 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 56 | 22 | 8 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 53 | 22 | 8 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 51 | 21 | 8 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 41 | 19 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 4.91 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 38 | 19 | 7 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | 5.04 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 96 | 92 | 436 | 1906 | 410 | 213 | 63 | 21.5% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.52 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 42 | 200 | 874 | 188 | 98 | 29 | 21.5% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.52 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cristian Mena (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 3.3% | — | 4.40 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 182 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 90 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 89 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 89 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 86 |
| Luis Romero R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 4.0% | .367 | 4.22 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.71 | 3.99 | 293 | 86 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 86 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.33 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% | .250 | 4.37 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.04 | 4.33 | 130 | 86 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 86 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 86 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 85 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 85 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .278 | 6.32 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.63 | 4.27 | 103 | 85 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 85 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 85 |
| Brandyn Sittinger R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.38 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 2.6% | .324 | 3.97 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 72 | -0.41 | 3.54 | 152 | 84 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.91 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .374 | 4.56 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.65 | 3.81 | 220 | 84 |
| Isaiah Campbell R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .220 | 3.50 | 25.4% | 17.1% | 115 | -0.69 | 3.29 | 192 | 84 |
| Joey Stock R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.00 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 95 | +1.52 | 3.48 | 121 | 84 |
| Hunter Stanley R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.87 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.33 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 148 | +1.46 | 3.87 | 162 | 84 |
| Gus Varland R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.26 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .294 | 5.73 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 105 | +1.47 | 2.40 | 272 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.727 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.1 | $0.4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $9M | +$2M | ||