Miguel Sime Jr. — OGILVIE

Miguel Sime Jr. P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 19 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 54 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%28.2%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—40

CMD2030

K†6570

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$7M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$10M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	16	16	46	206	84	45	2	100%	2.9	30.6%	25.5%	5.1%	1.2%	3.94	4.42	+0.1
ROS	19	MLB	WSH	10	10	54	229	65	37	7	100%	5.4	28.2%	16.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.78	4.78	-0.1
ROS	19	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	28.2%	16.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.78	4.78	—
2026 TOT	19	MLB	WSH	—	—	100	435	149	82	9	—	—	34.2%	18.9%	15.3%	2.0%	4.40	4.62	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	WSH	16	16	87	367	103	54	11	100%	5.4	28.2%	14.6%	13.5%	2.9%	4.62	4.55	+0.6
2028	21	MLB	WSH	23	23	125	529	149	71	15	100%	5.5	28.1%	13.4%	14.7%	2.9%	4.46	4.37	+1.5
2029	22	MLB	WSH	30	30	168	708	203	88	20	100%	5.6	28.7%	12.5%	16.3%	2.8%	4.28	4.17	+2.4
2030	23	MLB	WSH	32	32	175	739	216	88	20	100%	5.5	29.3%	11.9%	17.4%	2.8%	4.13	4.02	+2.8
2031	24	MLB	WSH	32	32	179	757	226	88	21	100%	5.6	29.9%	11.6%	18.3%	2.7%	4.01	3.92	+3.1
2032	25	MLB	WSH	31	31	180	760	230	87	21	100%	5.8	30.3%	11.4%	18.8%	2.7%	3.92	3.86	+3.2
2033	26	MLB	WSH	30	30	180	760	232	87	21	100%	6.0	30.5%	11.4%	19.1%	2.7%	3.87	3.84	+3.3
2034	27	MLB	WSH	30	30	177	749	228	86	21	100%	5.9	30.5%	11.5%	19.0%	2.8%	3.87	3.88	+3.2
2035	28	MLB	WSH	29	29	172	726	220	84	21	100%	5.9	30.3%	11.6%	18.7%	2.9%	3.93	3.96	+2.9
2036	29	MLB	WSH	27	27	164	694	209	82	21	100%	6.1	30.1%	11.9%	18.2%	3.0%	4.03	4.09	+2.5
2037	30	MLB	WSH	26	26	154	652	194	79	21	100%	5.9	29.8%	12.2%	17.6%	3.2%	4.17	4.27	+2.0
2038	31	MLB	WSH	24	24	144	608	178	76	21	100%	6.0	29.3%	12.5%	16.8%	3.4%	4.35	4.47	+1.6
2039	32	MLB	WSH	22	22	133	562	163	73	21	100%	6.1	28.9%	12.9%	16.0%	3.7%	4.56	4.70	+1.1
2027	20	MLB	WSH	8	8	43	182	51	27	5	100%	5.4	28.2%	14.6%	13.5%	2.9%	4.62	4.55	0.0
2028	21	MLB	WSH	17	17	91	384	108	52	11	100%	5.4	28.1%	13.4%	14.7%	2.9%	4.46	4.37	+0.9
2029	22	MLB	WSH	26	26	141	595	171	74	17	100%	5.4	28.7%	12.5%	16.3%	2.8%	4.28	4.17	+2.0
2030	23	MLB	WSH	29	29	157	663	194	79	18	100%	5.4	29.3%	11.9%	17.4%	2.8%	4.13	4.02	+2.5
2031	24	MLB	WSH	29	29	165	697	208	81	19	100%	5.7	29.9%	11.6%	18.3%	2.7%	4.01	3.92	+2.9
2032	25	MLB	WSH	29	29	168	709	215	81	19	100%	5.8	30.3%	11.4%	18.8%	2.7%	3.92	3.86	+3.0
2033	26	MLB	WSH	28	28	171	722	220	82	20	100%	6.1	30.5%	11.4%	19.1%	2.7%	3.87	3.84	+3.1
2034	27	MLB	WSH	28	28	168	709	216	81	20	100%	6.0	30.5%	11.5%	19.0%	2.8%	3.87	3.88	+3.0
2035	28	MLB	WSH	27	27	163	688	209	80	20	100%	6.0	30.3%	11.6%	18.7%	2.9%	3.93	3.96	+2.7
2036	29	MLB	WSH	26	26	156	659	198	78	20	100%	6.0	30.1%	11.9%	18.2%	3.0%	4.03	4.09	+2.4
2037	30	MLB	WSH	24	24	147	621	185	75	20	100%	6.1	29.8%	12.2%	17.6%	3.2%	4.17	4.27	+1.9
2038	31	MLB	WSH	23	23	137	578	170	72	20	100%	6.0	29.3%	12.5%	16.8%	3.4%	4.35	4.47	+1.5
2039	32	MLB	WSH	21	21	127	536	155	69	20	100%	6.0	28.9%	12.9%	16.0%	3.7%	4.56	4.70	+1.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			322	322	1835	7749	2301	933	228	100%	5.7	29.7%	12.0%	17.7%	2.9%	4.11	3.73	+35.8
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	251	102	25	100%	5.7	29.7%	12.0%	17.7%	2.9%	4.11	3.73	+3.9
Career	—			16	16	46	206	63	52	3	100%	2.9	30.6%	25.5%	5.1%	1.2%	3.94	4.42	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—			70	70	200	902	276	230	11	100%	2.9	30.6%	25.5%	5.1%	1.2%	3.94	4.42	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Sime Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	28.2%	16.3%	3.0%	—	4.32	28.4%	15.1%	380	-0.46	—	—	—
Mick Abel R 2026 · 4.97 FIP	19	SP	4.97	25.8%	16.9%	3.5%	.242	4.96	21.3%	7.0%	326	-0.01	2.24	528	85
Dylan Lesko R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	19	SP	4.44	26.8%	18.3%	2.4%	.333	6.51	18.1%	-5.9%	120	+2.07	4.44	148	84
Biembenido Brito R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP	4.62	24.7%	18.5%	2.3%	.301	5.30	18.7%	-1.3%	91	+0.68	3.58	130	81
Luis Perales R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	19	SP	3.83	23.9%	16.6%	1.2%	.253	4.48	23.9%	10.2%	116	+0.65	2.32	221	77
AJ Smith-Shawver R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	19	SP	3.66	25.5%	15.4%	1.4%	.327	5.01	24.1%	12.1%	212	+1.35	3.66	280	76
Alejandro Hidalgo R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	19	SP	4.23	24.5%	12.8%	2.9%	.326	5.90	18.3%	1.5%	143	+1.67	4.23	251	76
Beck Way R 2028 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.90	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.37	3.99	433	75
Reny Artiles R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	19	SP	3.91	24.2%	12.4%	2.3%	.419	5.75	14.8%	-6.5%	109	+1.84	3.91	165	75
Brandon Young R 2029 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.5%	12.3%	2.7%	.297	3.46	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.11	420	73
Adrian Heredia R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	19	SP	3.78	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.09	15.7%	2.9%	81	+1.31	3.39	125	72
Trace Bright R 2029 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP-	4.39	26.3%	14.7%	3.0%	.297	4.58	19.5%	4.9%	274	+0.19	4.22	373	72
Alex McFarlane R 2029 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP	4.91	21.9%	19.2%	2.2%	.344	4.02	20.5%	6.2%	108	-0.89	3.64	159	72
Jaxon Wiggins R 2029 · 3.61 FIP	22	SP	3.61	22.5%	12.8%	1.4%	.286	3.29	24.5%	11.4%	79	-0.32	3.12	132	72
Tanner McDougal R 2027 · 5.23 FIP	20	SP	5.23	19.7%	16.9%	3.0%	.285	5.09	22.0%	8.4%	233	-0.14	3.96	302	72
Ricardo Yan R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	19	SP	4.05	20.5%	14.6%	1.5%	.271	4.47	20.2%	4.3%	211	+0.42	3.63	282	71
Alec Hansen R 2028 · 3.62 FIP	21	SP	3.62	30.1%	12.7%	2.7%	.150	4.38	21.8%	6.0%	222	+0.76	3.38	288	71
Nate Dohm R 2029 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	21.1%	11.5%	3.8%	.309	4.59	17.7%	2.6%	40	-0.27	4.59	115	70
Marco Raya R 2026 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.47	20.0%	8.0%	254	-0.30	3.83	358	70
Carlos Jimenez R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP-	4.11	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.12	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.01	4.07	257	70
Carson Fulmer R 2028 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	21.4%	11.5%	2.4%	.259	4.87	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.83	3.84	879	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	150	29.6%	12.2%	1.14	4.15
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89