Miguel Sime Jr. — OGILVIE

Miguel Sime Jr. P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 19 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.8 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%29.5%

BB%20.1%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$67M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—40

CMD2030

K†6570

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$9M	+$9M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.8	$8M	+$8M
2034	Arb-1	$6M	+1.7	$7M	+$5M
2035	Arb-2	$9M	+1.5	$6M	+$3M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$18M		$40M	+$32M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	23	72	315	130	64	3	100%	3.1	31.3%	23.6%	7.7%	1.2%	2.99	4.11	—
YTD	19	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	23	72	315	130	64	3	100%	3.1	31.3%	23.6%	7.7%	1.2%	2.99	4.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	WSH	10	10	26	119	54	25	1	100%	2.6	45.4%	21.0%	24.4%	0.8%	4.44	2.39	—
2026	19	A+ RAW	WSH	13	13	46	196	76	39	2	100%	3.5	38.8%	19.9%	18.9%	1.0%	2.15	2.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	104	440	122	80	13	100%	5.5	27.8%	18.1%	9.7%	2.9%	5.03	5.00	-0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	144	606	168	97	17	100%	5.5	27.8%	16.1%	11.7%	2.8%	4.82	4.72	+0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	WSH	32	32	175	739	210	107	21	100%	5.5	28.4%	14.5%	13.9%	2.8%	4.58	4.44	+0.9
2030	23	MLB MLE	WSH	33	33	180	760	220	103	21	100%	5.5	29.0%	13.5%	15.5%	2.7%	4.38	4.25	+1.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	WSH	32	32	180	760	225	98	21	100%	5.6	29.6%	12.9%	16.6%	2.7%	4.22	4.11	+1.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	WSH	31	31	180	760	228	95	20	100%	5.8	30.0%	12.5%	17.4%	2.7%	4.10	4.02	+1.9
2033	26	MLB MLE	WSH	30	30	180	760	229	95	20	100%	6.0	30.2%	12.5%	17.7%	2.7%	4.04	3.99	+1.9
2034	27	MLB MLE	WSH	30	30	177	749	226	94	21	100%	5.9	30.2%	12.6%	17.6%	2.7%	4.04	4.03	+1.8
2035	28	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	172	726	218	92	21	100%	5.9	30.0%	12.7%	17.3%	2.8%	4.09	4.12	+1.6
2036	29	MLB MLE	WSH	27	27	164	694	207	90	21	100%	6.1	29.8%	13.0%	16.8%	3.0%	4.18	4.25	+1.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	154	652	192	86	21	100%	5.9	29.4%	13.2%	16.2%	3.2%	4.33	4.42	+0.9
2038	31	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	144	608	177	83	21	100%	6.0	29.0%	13.6%	15.4%	3.4%	4.51	4.63	+0.5
2039	32	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	133	562	161	79	21	100%	6.1	28.6%	14.0%	14.6%	3.7%	4.71	4.85	+0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	52	220	61	40	6	100%	5.8	27.8%	18.1%	9.7%	2.9%	5.03	5.00	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	105	443	123	71	13	100%	5.5	27.8%	16.1%	11.7%	2.8%	4.82	4.72	+0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	WSH	27	27	148	625	178	91	17	100%	5.5	28.4%	14.5%	13.9%	2.8%	4.58	4.44	+0.8
2030	23	MLB CTX	WSH	29	29	162	684	198	92	19	100%	5.6	29.0%	13.5%	15.5%	2.7%	4.38	4.25	+1.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	WSH	30	30	166	701	207	91	19	100%	5.5	29.6%	12.9%	16.6%	2.7%	4.22	4.11	+1.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	WSH	29	29	168	709	213	89	19	100%	5.8	30.0%	12.5%	17.4%	2.7%	4.10	4.02	+1.8
2033	26	MLB CTX	WSH	28	28	171	722	218	90	19	100%	6.1	30.2%	12.5%	17.7%	2.7%	4.04	3.99	+1.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	WSH	28	28	168	709	214	89	19	100%	6.0	30.2%	12.6%	17.6%	2.7%	4.04	4.03	+1.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	WSH	27	27	163	688	207	88	20	100%	6.0	30.0%	12.7%	17.3%	2.8%	4.09	4.12	+1.5
2036	29	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	156	659	196	85	20	100%	6.0	29.8%	13.0%	16.8%	3.0%	4.18	4.25	+1.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	147	621	183	82	20	100%	6.1	29.4%	13.2%	16.2%	3.2%	4.33	4.42	+0.8
2038	31	MLB CTX	WSH	23	23	137	578	168	79	20	100%	6.0	29.0%	13.6%	15.4%	3.4%	4.51	4.63	+0.4
2039	32	MLB CTX	WSH	21	21	127	536	153	75	20	100%	6.0	28.6%	14.0%	14.6%	3.7%	4.71	4.85	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		329	329	1869	7891	2317	1061	230	100%	5.7	29.4%	13.4%	15.9%	2.9%	4.32	3.93	+21.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	248	114	25	100%	5.7	29.4%	13.4%	15.9%	2.9%	4.32	3.93	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		23	23	72	315	98	74	4	100%	3.1	31.3%	23.6%	7.7%	1.2%	2.99	4.11	+14.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	64	200	871	272	206	11	100%	3.1	31.3%	23.6%	7.7%	1.2%	2.99	4.11	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Sime Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	29.5%	20.1%	2.9%	—	4.67	28.0%	12.1%	423	-0.48	—	—	—
Dylan Lesko R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	26.8%	18.3%	2.2%	.333	6.78	17.8%	-7.7%	124	+2.44	4.34	152	89
Mick Abel R 2021 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	25.8%	16.9%	3.5%	.242	4.88	20.9%	7.4%	326	-0.07	2.24	528	84
Biembenido Brito R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	19	SP	4.64	24.7%	18.5%	2.3%	.301	5.37	18.7%	-1.3%	91	+0.73	3.58	130	83
Omar Gonzalez R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	18	SP	5.10	24.3%	24.6%	1.7%	.375	5.69	15.1%	-2.0%	106	+0.59	2.25	137	73
Alejandro Hidalgo R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP	4.03	24.5%	12.8%	2.5%	.326	5.91	18.3%	1.5%	143	+1.88	4.03	272	73
Beck Way R 2021 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.79	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.26	3.86	438	72
Reny Artiles R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	24.2%	12.4%	3.1%	.419	5.64	14.8%	-6.5%	109	+1.30	4.34	165	71
Carlos Lagrange R 2022 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	22.5%	18.3%	0.9%	.150	3.86	25.0%	10.1%	176	-0.15	3.66	272	70
Ricardo Yan R 2022 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP	4.00	20.5%	14.6%	1.4%	.271	4.43	20.2%	4.3%	211	+0.43	3.62	300	69
Joe Boyle R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	21	SP	4.73	36.4%	26.9%	2.4%	.333	4.26	27.1%	7.6%	327	-0.47	3.36	564	68
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	6.04	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.98	3.81	214	68
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	68
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	68
Demarcus Evans R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	19	SP-	4.61	24.3%	18.3%	2.3%	.288	2.93	32.2%	15.2%	146	-1.68	2.28	267	68
Bubba Chandler R 2022 · 4.60 FIP	19	SP-	4.60	24.7%	19.5%	2.0%	.244	3.88	22.9%	12.9%	357	-0.72	3.44	540	67
Patricio Aquino R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	19	SP	4.24	21.9%	13.2%	2.4%	.321	3.95	15.1%	5.8%	234	-0.29	3.54	313	67
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	67
Justin Lange R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	19	SP	4.55	19.3%	18.4%	1.4%	.298	4.81	23.4%	3.7%	122	+0.26	4.55	144	66
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	66
Sandy Gaston R 2021 · 4.68 FIP	19	SP-	4.68	23.6%	20.0%	1.9%	.252	5.95	19.6%	-6.1%	113	+1.27	4.17	310	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.6	151	29.3%	13.7%	1.13	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12