Simeon Woods Richardson

P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	31	31	147	4.35	3.84	20.5%	8.4%	2.7	K 20.3% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.84
2025	24	MIX2 levels	28	26	134	4.11	4.30	23.6%	9.2%	1.7	K 23.0% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.29
2026	25	MIX2 levels	29	18	100	5.69	5.49	15.3%	11.5%	-0.1	K 14.4% · BB 11.1% · FIP 5.47
2027PROJ	26	MLBTOR	8	8	51	4.91	5.17	18.0%	10.2%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBTOR	8	8	51	5.09	5.21	18.0%	10.2%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBTOR	7	7	43	5.21	5.29	17.9%	10.4%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo23

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsGriffin Canning (age 25) · Micah Owings (age 26) · Graham Ashcraft (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA4.91

FIP5.17

K%18.0%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p1013.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.368

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	7	4	17	71	26	4	1	57%	2.5	24.9%	7.0%	17.9%	2.0%	1.56	2.97	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	7	4	17	71	26	4	1	57%	2.5	36.6%	5.6%	31.0%	1.4%	1.56	1.54	—
2019	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	107	432	126	24	6	100%	4.1	21.8%	6.5%	15.3%	1.8%	3.80	3.09	—
2019	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	107	432	126	24	6	100%	4.1	29.2%	5.6%	23.6%	1.4%	3.80	2.14	—
2021	20	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	15	14	53	240	77	34	5	93%	3.6	26.0%	15.6%	10.4%	2.3%	5.91	4.12	—
2021	20	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	15	14	53	240	77	34	5	93%	3.6	32.1%	14.2%	17.9%	2.1%	5.91	3.34	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	23	112	446	118	38	7	96%	4.7	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	1.7%	2.80	3.31	+2.9
2022	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	23	112	446	118	38	7	96%	4.7	26.5%	8.5%	17.9%	1.6%	2.80	2.82	+3.6
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	118	521	101	64	14	88%	4.7	16.6%	11.0%	5.6%	2.9%	5.10	4.66	+1.0
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	118	521	101	64	14	88%	4.7	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	2.7%	5.10	4.55	+1.2
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	147	628	129	53	16	100%	4.7	20.3%	8.4%	11.9%	2.5%	4.35	3.84	+2.8
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	147	628	129	53	16	100%	4.7	20.3%	8.4%	11.9%	2.5%	4.35	3.84	+2.8
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	147	628	129	53	16	100%	4.7	20.5%	8.4%	12.1%	2.5%	4.35	3.84	+2.7
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	134	567	134	52	21	93%	4.8	23.0%	9.1%	13.9%	3.6%	4.11	4.29	+1.7
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	134	567	134	52	21	93%	4.8	23.0%	9.1%	13.9%	3.6%	4.11	4.29	+1.7
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	134	567	134	52	21	93%	4.8	23.6%	9.2%	14.5%	3.7%	4.11	4.30	+1.7
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	18	100	445	68	51	17	62%	3.4	14.4%	11.1%	3.3%	4.0%	5.69	5.47	-0.1
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	18	100	445	68	51	17	62%	3.4	14.4%	11.1%	3.3%	4.0%	5.69	5.47	-0.1
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	18	100	445	68	51	17	62%	3.4	15.3%	11.5%	3.8%	3.8%	5.69	5.49	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			73	61	321	1387	272	136	46	84%	4.4	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.3%	4.72	4.54	+3.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TOR	8	8	51	215	39	22	8	100%	6.4	18.0%	10.2%	7.9%	3.5%	4.91	5.17	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	54	228	41	23	8	100%	6.0	18.0%	10.2%	7.8%	3.6%	5.09	5.21	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	45	190	34	20	7	100%	5.6	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	3.7%	5.21	5.29	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	TOR	6	6	36	151	26	16	6	100%	6.0	17.3%	10.6%	6.7%	3.8%	5.36	5.45	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	TOR	4	4	27	114	19	12	5	100%	6.8	16.6%	10.9%	5.7%	4.0%	5.54	5.66	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	51	215	39	22	8	100%	6.4	18.0%	10.2%	7.8%	3.6%	5.09	5.21	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	43	182	32	19	7	100%	6.1	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	3.7%	5.21	5.29	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	34	144	25	15	5	100%	5.7	17.3%	10.6%	6.7%	3.8%	5.36	5.45	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	TOR	4	4	26	110	18	12	4	100%	6.5	16.6%	10.9%	5.7%	4.0%	5.54	5.66	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		99	87	474	2036	386	204	70	88%	4.8	19.0%	10.0%	8.9%	3.4%	4.89	4.66	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	37	200	858	163	86	30	88%	4.8	19.0%	10.0%	8.9%	3.4%	4.89	4.66	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		185	164	788	3350	683	322	91	89%	4.3	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.09	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	42	200	850	173	82	23	89%	4.3	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.09	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 34 IPFIP 5.00 → 5.34 (+0.34)K% 19.7% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.72%	—	×0.860	16.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.86%	—	×0.900	8.87%
HR / BF /BF	4.23%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.65%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.00 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 22 IPFIP 3.80 → 3.78 (−0.03)K% 28.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.860	24.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×0.900	5.62%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.253	×1.100	3.66%

Result: FIP 3.80 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 13 IPFIP 2.46 → 2.59 (+0.13)K% 20.3% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.34%	—	×0.860	17.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×0.900	7.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.039	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.46 → 2.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 114 IPFIP 4.46 → 4.66 (+0.20)K% 19.3% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.32%	—	×0.860	16.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.27%	—	×0.900	11.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.62%	÷1.009	×1.100	2.85%

Result: FIP 4.46 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAWichita Wind Surge · 71 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.46 (+0.71)K% 26.8% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.83%	—	×0.810	21.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.06%	—	×1.100	9.97%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷0.985	×1.200	1.70%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 37 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.01 (+0.52)K% 27.3% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.34%	—	×0.880	24.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.19%	—	×1.050	7.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.44%	÷0.881	×1.100	1.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAWichita Wind Surge · 53 IPFIP 3.33 → 4.12 (+0.79)K% 32.1% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.08%	—	×0.810	25.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.17%	—	×1.100	15.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.104	×1.200	2.26%

Result: FIP 3.33 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AColumbia Fireflies · 78 IPFIP 2.09 → 3.17 (+1.09)K% 29.8% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.85%	—	×0.740	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.23%	—	×1.180	6.17%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷0.949	×1.300	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Simeon Woods Richardson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	5.30	17.8%	7.4%	135	+0.13	—	—	—
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	809	67
Micah Owings R 2009 · 5.29 FIP	26	SP-	5.29	12.5%	11.3%	3.3%	.273	4.37	18.8%	7.5%	96	-0.92	4.23	473	64
Graham Ashcraft R 2024 · 4.30 FIP	26	SP	4.30	16.3%	7.7%	2.9%	.306	2.92	23.9%	13.1%	101	-1.38	2.67	575	64
Andy Sonnanstine R 2009 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	13.1%	6.8%	4.1%	.321	5.30	12.2%	5.3%	117	+0.18	3.77	540	64
Tony Armas R 2004 · 5.45 FIP	26	SP	5.45	16.9%	12.2%	4.1%	.248	4.85	14.4%	5.5%	352	-0.60	3.78	911	63
Henderson Alvarez R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	15.2%	6.4%	3.8%	.306	5.22	12.4%	4.7%	121	+0.53	3.01	716	63
Justin Miller R 2004 · 5.41 FIP	26	SP-	5.41	12.5%	10.4%	3.7%	.316	2.63	28.6%	21.7%	62	-2.78	2.63	373	62
Daniel Mengden R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	26	SP-	4.28	18.1%	8.7%	2.9%	.272	6.22	17.3%	4.9%	121	+1.94	3.45	841	62
Jarred Cosart R 2016 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP	5.13	13.1%	12.9%	2.7%	.297	4.10	13.2%	-3.5%	24	-1.03	3.70	458	62
Luke Weaver R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	26	SP	4.56	23.3%	7.6%	4.5%	.346	4.41	20.7%	13.8%	225	-0.15	2.54	1,043	62
Jason Johnson R 2000 · 5.56 FIP	26	SP-	5.56	15.8%	11.8%	4.2%	.287	4.58	14.5%	6.4%	517	-0.98	4.12	1,351	62
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	61
Dakota Hudson R 2020 · 4.50 FIP	25	SP	4.50	20.5%	9.3%	3.6%	.188	4.22	13.8%	4.3%	290	-0.28	3.09	1,032	61
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	61
Erick Fedde R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	26	SP-	5.06	14.8%	8.4%	3.9%	.287	4.81	18.1%	9.4%	311	-0.25	3.34	1,256	61
Dustin Moseley R 2008 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	15.6%	8.4%	2.5%	.368	4.54	12.4%	5.4%	200	+0.30	3.79	353	60
Joaquín Benoit R 2003 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP-	5.64	18.8%	11.0%	5.0%	.252	3.90	22.0%	13.2%	270	-1.74	1.99	1,064	60
Rob Bell R 2003 · 5.22 FIP	26	SP	5.22	10.0%	8.6%	3.4%	.257	5.10	10.7%	2.6%	148	-0.12	4.65	686	60
Tim Redding R 2004 · 4.94 FIP	26	SP-	4.94	12.0%	8.6%	3.2%	.311	5.01	12.7%	3.1%	115	+0.07	3.97	822	60
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	67	18.8%	10.0%	1.34	4.90
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Esteban Yan ('06)	3.5	77	17.9%	8.7%	1.36	5.14
John Strohmayer ('70-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.6	78	19.6%*	9.2%*	1.42*	5.14*
Shawn Hillegas ('87-'93, -0 WAR*)	2.6	86	19.6%*	10.2%*	1.24*	5.03*
Roansy Contreras ('25)	1.2	82	19.3%	9.8%	1.38	4.77
Brad Havens ('81-'89, 2 WAR*)	3.0	84	21.0%*	9.5%*	1.43*	4.96*