Simeon Woods Richardson

Simeon Woods Richardson P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA4.46

FIP4.72

K%17.1%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p1013.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.368

FB+2.0 (43%)

CU (10%)

SL-1.9 (22%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2022

Service 1.890 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$-6M	-$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	7	4	17	71	26	4	1	57%	2.5	24.9%	7.0%	17.9%	2.0%	1.56	2.97	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	7	4	17	71	26	4	1	57%	2.5	36.6%	5.6%	31.0%	1.4%	1.56	1.54	—
2019	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	107	432	126	24	6	100%	4.1	21.8%	6.5%	15.3%	1.8%	3.80	3.09	—
2019	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	107	432	126	24	6	100%	4.1	29.2%	5.6%	23.6%	1.4%	3.80	2.14	—
2021	20	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	15	14	53	240	77	34	5	93%	3.6	26.0%	15.6%	10.4%	2.3%	5.91	4.12	—
2021	20	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	15	14	53	240	77	34	5	93%	3.6	32.1%	14.2%	17.9%	2.1%	5.91	3.34	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	23	112	446	118	38	7	96%	4.7	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	1.7%	2.80	3.31	+2.2
2022	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	23	112	446	118	38	7	96%	4.7	26.5%	8.5%	17.9%	1.6%	2.80	2.82	+2.9
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	118	521	101	64	14	88%	4.7	16.0%	11.0%	5.0%	2.9%	5.10	4.71	+0.3
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	118	521	101	64	14	88%	4.7	16.0%	11.0%	5.0%	2.9%	5.10	4.71	+0.3
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	118	521	101	64	14	88%	4.7	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	2.7%	5.10	4.55	+0.5
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	147	628	129	53	16	100%	4.7	20.2%	8.4%	11.9%	2.5%	4.35	3.84	+1.9
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	147	628	129	53	16	100%	4.7	20.2%	8.4%	11.9%	2.5%	4.35	3.84	+1.9
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	147	628	129	53	16	100%	4.7	20.5%	8.4%	12.1%	2.5%	4.35	3.84	+1.9
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	134	567	134	52	21	93%	4.8	22.8%	9.1%	13.8%	3.6%	4.11	4.30	+0.9
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	134	567	134	52	21	93%	4.8	22.8%	9.1%	13.8%	3.6%	4.11	4.30	+0.9
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	134	567	134	52	21	93%	4.8	23.6%	9.2%	14.5%	3.7%	4.11	4.30	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			73	61	321	1387	272	136	46	84%	4.4	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.3%	4.72	4.54	+1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	28	17	96	428	65	48	16	61%	3.4	14.2%	11.0%	3.2%	3.9%	5.74	5.41	-0.6
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	28	17	96	428	65	48	16	61%	3.4	14.2%	11.0%	3.2%	3.9%	5.74	5.41	-0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	TOR	8	7	30	125	25	11	5	88%	3.7	20.0%	8.8%	11.2%	4.0%	3.64	4.72	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	TOR	20	10	66	303	40	37	11	50%	3.3	13.2%	12.2%	1.0%	3.6%	6.68	5.52	-0.5
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	TOR	20	10	66	303	40	37	11	50%	3.3	13.2%	12.2%	1.0%	3.6%	6.68	5.52	-0.5
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TOR	2	2	10	42	7	4	1	100%	5.0	17.1%	9.9%	7.3%	3.3%	4.46	4.72	+0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	TOR	2	2	10	42	7	4	1	100%	5.0	17.1%	9.9%	7.3%	3.3%	4.46	4.72	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	106	470	72	52	17	—	—	15.4%	11.1%	4.3%	3.7%	5.62	5.34	-0.5
FULL	25	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	76	321	72	52	17	—	—	22.5%	16.3%	6.3%	5.4%	7.81	6.23	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	139	588	108	62	20	100%	6.1	18.4%	10.5%	7.9%	3.4%	5.05	5.11	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	141	596	110	63	21	100%	5.9	18.4%	10.6%	7.8%	3.4%	5.11	5.15	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	141	596	109	64	21	100%	5.9	18.3%	10.7%	7.6%	3.5%	5.19	5.24	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	135	569	101	62	21	100%	6.1	17.7%	10.9%	6.7%	3.7%	5.31	5.40	-0.8
2031	30	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	127	535	91	60	21	100%	6.0	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	3.9%	5.49	5.60	-1.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	132	557	103	59	19	100%	6.0	18.4%	10.5%	7.9%	3.4%	5.05	5.11	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	134	566	104	60	19	100%	6.1	18.4%	10.6%	7.8%	3.4%	5.11	5.15	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	134	566	103	61	20	100%	6.1	18.3%	10.7%	7.6%	3.5%	5.19	5.24	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	128	540	96	59	20	100%	6.1	17.7%	10.9%	6.7%	3.7%	5.31	5.40	-0.7
2031	30	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	120	507	86	57	20	100%	6.0	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	3.9%	5.49	5.60	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	171	980	4170	772	436	146	93%	5.4	18.5%	10.5%	8.1%	3.5%	5.05	4.78	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	851	158	89	30	93%	5.4	18.5%	10.5%	8.1%	3.5%	5.05	4.78	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		184	163	784	3333	675	320	90	89%	4.3	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	2.7%	4.34	4.09	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	42	200	850	172	82	23	89%	4.3	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	2.7%	4.34	4.09	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Simeon Woods Richardson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	21.3%	9.0%	3.2%	—	5.17	18.4%	7.8%	422	+0.56	—	—	—
Drew Hutchison R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	21.1%	8.7%	3.7%	.274	4.41	17.8%	8.5%	375	-0.06	4.07	1,027	70
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	69
Nick Martinez R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	25	SP-	4.36	12.6%	6.0%	2.8%	.302	5.09	13.9%	8.3%	149	+0.73	2.94	1,134	69
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	69
Travis Adams R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP	4.75	16.4%	9.9%	3.3%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.6%	278	-0.68	3.77	488	68
Chris Vallimont R 2022 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	19.0%	11.2%	3.1%	.304	5.74	17.1%	5.8%	128	+1.14	3.23	522	68
Rafael Montero R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	16.6%	11.0%	3.0%	.325	3.81	23.3%	13.2%	177	-0.95	2.43	670	68
Jacob Waguespack R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP	4.82	19.0%	9.7%	3.8%	.291	3.02	21.4%	13.3%	87	-1.80	2.75	642	67
Jayden Murray R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SP	4.50	16.9%	8.6%	3.2%	.258	4.65	18.5%	7.2%	105	+0.15	3.80	363	67
Sean Hjelle R 2022 · 4.22 FIP	25	SP-	4.22	17.6%	8.6%	2.8%	.336	3.77	18.7%	12.3%	285	-0.45	2.92	670	67
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	67
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	67
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	66
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	66
Peter Solomon R 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP-	5.73	17.4%	11.5%	4.8%	.277	5.36	17.4%	6.5%	194	-0.37	2.86	516	66
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	65
Luis Perdomo R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	25	SP	4.36	17.7%	8.0%	3.2%	.322	3.88	19.6%	12.5%	104	-0.48	3.49	715	65
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	65
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	65
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	134	18.5%	10.5%	1.37	5.09
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36