Simeon Woods Richardson
P
Minnesota Twins
+0.7
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.55
xFIP5.61
SIERA5.65
K%21.9%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%12.6%
IP119
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p2292.5
Whiff%
p1016.6%
K%
p1011.4%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
FB+2.0 (42%)
CU (5%)
SL-1.9 (25%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | 7 | 4 | 17 | 71 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 24.9% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 1.56 | 2.97 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 18 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 26 | 26 | 107 | 432 | 126 | 24 | 6 | 21.8% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 3.80 | 3.09 | +2.7 |
| 2021 | 20 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 15 | 14 | 53 | 240 | 77 | 34 | 5 | 26.0% | 15.6% | 2.2% | 5.91 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 21 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 24 | 23 | 112 | 446 | 118 | 38 | 7 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 1.7% | 2.80 | 3.30 | +2.5 |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 25 | 22 | 118 | 521 | 101 | 64 | 14 | 17.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 4.85 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 31 | 31 | 147 | 628 | 129 | 53 | 16 | 20.3% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 3.88 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 28 | 26 | 134 | 567 | 134 | 52 | 21 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.11 | 4.27 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 4 | 4 | 21 | 92 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12.0% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 6.10 | 5.44 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 69 | 34 | 13 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.26 | 4.56 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 110 | 471 | 80 | 41 | 17 | 17.1% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 87 | 41 | 16 | 18.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 84 | 40 | 15 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 98 | 416 | 78 | 37 | 14 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.94 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 90 | 378 | 69 | 34 | 13 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.97 | 5.01 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 81 | 341 | 60 | 31 | 12 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 5.05 | 5.11 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 59 | 26 | 11 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 4.94 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 51 | 24 | 10 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 43 | 21 | 9 | 17.9% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 5.12 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 37 | 19 | 8 | 17.2% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 5.24 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 31 | 17 | 8 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 5.38 | 5.48 | -0.3 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 26 | 16 | 7 | 15.7% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 5.54 | 5.64 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 160 | 150 | 709 | 2997 | 632 | 291 | 78 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 3.97 | +10.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 42 | 200 | 845 | 178 | 82 | 22 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 3.97 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Simeon Woods Richardson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 3.3% | — | 4.92 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 314 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.7% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .260 | 4.34 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 343 | +0.28 | 3.77 | 725 | 70 |
| Tyler Thornburg R 2027 · 5.70 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.70 | 15.4% | 8.9% | 5.1% | .295 | 3.66 | 28.7% | 19.3% | 104 | -2.04 | 2.59 | 301 | 70 |
| Drew Rucinski R 2027 · 5.53 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.53 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 4.6% | .336 | 3.57 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 278 | -1.96 | 2.69 | 409 | 69 |
| Shane Greene R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.54 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.56 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.98 | 2.84 | 484 | 69 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 68 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 68 |
| Wily Peralta R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 68 |
| Allen Webster R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.16 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.8% | .356 | 5.73 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.57 | 4.61 | 177 | 68 |
| Jayden Murray R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.52 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .258 | 4.76 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 105 | +0.24 | 3.90 | 305 | 68 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 3.7% | .261 | 4.39 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 282 | -0.27 | 3.02 | 519 | 68 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.39 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .286 | 4.23 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.16 | 3.32 | 252 | 68 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 67 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 67 |
| Sean Hjelle R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.19 | 17.6% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .336 | 3.80 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 285 | -0.39 | 2.89 | 670 | 67 |
| Nestor Molina R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 67 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 67 |
| Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .307 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 219 | 67 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 4.02 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.14 | 3.45 | 274 | 67 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 67 |
| Joey Mancini R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.08 | 12.4% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 316 | 67 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2022
Service 1.890 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $10M | +$6M | ||