Dakota Hudson

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 32 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX2 levels	29	23	129	5.36	4.39	14.5%	8.8%	1.5	K 13.6% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.50
2024	29	MIX2 levels	21	21	100	6.55	5.22	12.9%	11.8%	0.2	K 12.5% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.93
2025	30	AAALAA	28	24	136	6.68	5.02	13.8%	7.9%	—	K 11.9% · BB 7.1% · FIP 5.09
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	32	MLBLAA	1	1	8	5.23	5.33	11.8%	8.5%	0.0
2028PROJ	33	MLBLAA	10	10	61	5.30	5.34	13.0%	8.2%	0.0
2029PROJ	34	MLBLAA	8	8	46	5.51	5.64	12.1%	8.6%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsDavid Fletcher (age 30) · Osvaldo Fernandez (age 32) · Zack Segovia (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.23

FIP5.33

K%11.8%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%3.3%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.0

Whiff%

p1018.6%

p1012.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.374

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	1	13	58	19	7	0	8%	1.1	32.8%	12.1%	20.7%	0.0%	0.67	1.86	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	1	13	58	19	7	0	8%	1.1	32.8%	12.1%	20.7%	0.0%	0.67	1.83	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	153	643	96	48	7	100%	6.1	12.3%	8.1%	4.2%	1.1%	3.01	3.67	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	153	643	96	48	7	100%	6.1	14.9%	7.5%	7.5%	1.1%	3.01	3.38	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	19	139	591	106	56	1	42%	3.1	16.2%	9.8%	6.4%	0.2%	2.53	3.09	+2.5
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	19	139	591	106	56	1	42%	3.1	17.9%	9.5%	8.5%	0.2%	2.53	2.88	+2.8
2019	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	33	32	175	757	136	78	22	97%	5.3	18.0%	10.3%	7.7%	3.1%	3.35	4.60	+1.6
2019	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	33	32	175	757	136	78	22	97%	5.3	18.0%	10.3%	7.7%	2.9%	3.35	4.52	+1.8
2020	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	8	8	39	151	31	14	5	100%	4.9	20.5%	9.3%	11.3%	3.6%	2.77	4.50	+0.4
2020	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	8	8	39	151	31	14	5	100%	4.9	20.5%	9.3%	11.3%	3.3%	2.77	4.25	+0.5
2021	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	7	6	27	106	16	9	0	86%	3.9	15.1%	8.5%	6.6%	0.0%	1.32	2.90	+0.8
2021	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	7	6	27	106	16	9	0	86%	3.9	15.1%	8.5%	6.6%	0.0%	1.32	2.92	+0.8
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	161	683	97	69	9	97%	5.4	13.9%	10.2%	3.7%	1.4%	4.09	3.99	+2.7
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	161	683	97	69	9	97%	5.4	14.2%	10.1%	4.1%	1.3%	4.09	3.91	+2.9
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	129	579	84	51	14	79%	4.5	13.6%	8.5%	5.1%	2.7%	5.36	4.50	+1.4
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	23	129	579	84	51	14	79%	4.5	14.5%	8.8%	5.7%	2.4%	5.36	4.39	+1.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	100	459	59	54	13	100%	4.8	12.5%	11.7%	0.9%	2.6%	6.55	4.93	+0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	100	459	59	54	13	100%	4.8	12.5%	11.7%	0.9%	2.6%	6.55	4.93	+0.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	100	459	59	54	13	100%	4.8	12.9%	11.8%	1.1%	2.8%	6.55	5.22	+0.2
2025	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	28	24	136	643	89	51	22	86%	4.9	11.9%	7.1%	4.8%	3.8%	6.68	5.09	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	28	24	136	643	89	51	22	86%	4.9	11.9%	7.1%	4.8%	3.8%	6.68	5.09	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	28	24	136	643	89	51	22	86%	4.9	13.8%	7.9%	5.9%	3.4%	6.68	5.02	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			132	97	560	2414	364	256	56	73%	4.2	15.1%	10.6%	4.5%	2.3%	4.21	4.47	+6.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	LAA	1	1	8	34	4	3	1	100%	8.0	11.8%	8.5%	3.3%	3.2%	5.23	5.33	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	61	257	33	21	9	100%	6.1	13.0%	8.2%	4.8%	3.5%	5.30	5.34	+0.0
2029	34	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	46	195	24	17	7	100%	5.8	12.1%	8.6%	3.4%	3.8%	5.51	5.64	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	61	258	33	21	9	100%	6.1	13.0%	8.2%	4.8%	3.5%	5.30	5.34	+0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	46	194	23	17	7	100%	5.8	12.1%	8.6%	3.4%	3.8%	5.51	5.64	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		150	115	667	2866	421	294	72	77%	4.4	14.7%	10.3%	4.4%	2.5%	4.40	4.55	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	34	200	860	126	88	22	77%	4.4	14.7%	10.3%	4.4%	2.5%	4.40	4.55	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		238	188	1072	4670	684	436	98	79%	4.5	14.6%	9.3%	5.3%	2.1%	4.16	4.20	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	35	200	871	128	81	18	79%	4.5	14.6%	9.3%	5.3%	2.1%	4.16	4.20	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 136 IPFIP 4.81 → 5.09 (+0.27)K% 13.8% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.84%	—	×0.860	11.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.93%	—	×0.900	7.14%
HR / BF /BF	3.42%	÷0.989	×1.100	3.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 4.81 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 11 IPFIP 4.48 → 4.61 (+0.13)K% 18.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.860	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×0.900	6.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.096	×1.100	3.65%

Result: FIP 4.48 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 48 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.11 (+0.29)K% 17.3% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.33%	—	×0.860	14.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.56%	—	×0.900	6.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.955	×1.100	2.56%

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 21 IPFIP 2.42 → 2.70 (+0.28)K% 21.8% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.84%	—	×0.880	19.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.20%	—	×1.050	9.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.048	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 2.42 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 12 IPFIP 3.20 → 3.60 (+0.40)K% 15.9% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.91%	—	×0.810	12.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.36%	—	×1.100	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.990	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 3.20 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 5 IPFIP 4.16 → 4.35 (+0.20)K% 10.0% → 8.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.00%	—	×0.880	8.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.050	15.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.949	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 112 IPFIP 2.68 → 2.94 (+0.26)K% 18.4% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.39%	—	×0.880	16.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.03%	—	×1.050	8.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.21%	÷0.909	×1.100	0.26%

Result: FIP 2.68 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASpringfield Cardinals · 114 IPFIP 3.19 → 3.48 (+0.29)K% 16.0% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.98%	—	×0.810	12.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.85%	—	×1.100	7.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.315	×1.200	0.95%

Result: FIP 3.19 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dakota Hudson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.47	12.6%	4.2%	107	+0.14	—	—	—
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	77
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	76
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	76
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	75
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	75
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	72
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	70
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	68
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	68
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	67
Cesar Carrillo R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	32	SP	4.28	12.8%	9.3%	2.0%	.301	5.76	11.4%	1.2%	103	+1.48	4.14	336	67
Francisco Cordova R 2016 · 4.59 FIP	32	SP	4.59	7.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	115	66
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	66
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	65
Cody Mincey R 2022 · 5.56 FIP	30	SP	5.56	13.9%	8.4%	4.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	147	65
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	65
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	65
Daniel Guerrero R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	32	SP	4.61	10.2%	9.0%	2.2%	.328	5.59	14.7%	3.6%	57	+0.98	4.61	269	65
Eddie Gamboa R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	32	SP	5.65	12.1%	11.0%	4.0%	.292	4.59	13.4%	5.8%	34	-1.06	2.92	385	63
Robert Coello R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	30	SP	4.31	13.4%	10.6%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	112	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	83	14.4%	10.3%	1.01	4.49
Craig McMurtry ('83-'95, 3 WAR*)	3.3	95	15.8%*	11.3%*	1.06*	4.46*
Scott Kamieniecki ('00)	4.9	98	12.7%	10.5%	0.97	4.52
Don Hood ('73-'83, 4 WAR*)	4.2	85	16.0%*	9.9%*	0.85*	4.22*
Jim Hannan ('62-'71, -0 WAR*)	4.1	91	15.7%*	10.9%*	1.09*	4.76*
Kent Bottenfield ('01)	4.6	101	14.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.54
Willie Banks ('02)	3.1	102	15.8%	11.1%	0.96	4.75