Dakota Hudson
P
Salt Lake Bees
Age 31
RHP
6'5" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION81 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA5.28
FIP5.51
xFIP5.41
SIERA5.72
K%10.7%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%1.3%
IP81
K†3030
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p1090.0
Whiff%
p1018.6%
K%
p1012.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.374
SI (33%)
CU (17%)
SL-2.4 (25%)
FB-5.7 (48%)
CH-7.0 (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 12 | 1 | 13 | 58 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 32.8% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 0.67 | 1.86 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 22 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 25 | 25 | 153 | 643 | 96 | 48 | 7 | 12.3% | 8.1% | 0.9% | 3.01 | 3.60 | +3.2 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 45 | 19 | 139 | 591 | 106 | 56 | 1 | 16.2% | 9.8% | 0.2% | 2.53 | 3.10 | +3.7 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 33 | 32 | 175 | 757 | 136 | 78 | 22 | 18.0% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 3.35 | 4.49 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 8 | 8 | 39 | 151 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 2.77 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 7 | 6 | 27 | 106 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 15.1% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.32 | 2.90 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 30 | 29 | 161 | 683 | 97 | 69 | 9 | 13.9% | 10.2% | 1.3% | 4.09 | 3.94 | +2.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 29 | 23 | 129 | 579 | 84 | 51 | 14 | 13.7% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 5.36 | 4.51 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 21 | 21 | 100 | 459 | 59 | 54 | 13 | 12.6% | 11.8% | 2.2% | 6.55 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 28 | 24 | 136 | 643 | 89 | 51 | 22 | 12.2% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 6.68 | 5.24 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 37 | 32 | 11 | 10.7% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 5.28 | 5.51 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 14 | 14 | 75 | 316 | 38 | 29 | 11 | 12.0% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 5.40 | 5.48 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 32 | 28 | 11 | 11.2% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 5.62 | 5.76 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 264 | 27 | 26 | 11 | 10.2% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 5.89 | 6.07 | -1.1 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 24 | 25 | 10 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 4.3% | 6.16 | 6.34 | -1.2 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 21 | 23 | 10 | 10.0% | 11.1% | 4.7% | 6.44 | 6.63 | -1.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 238 | 188 | 1072 | 4670 | 687 | 447 | 94 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 4.16 | 4.17 | +15.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 35 | 200 | 871 | 128 | 83 | 18 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 4.16 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dakota Hudson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.51 | 10.7% | 9.4% | 3.2% | — | 5.75 | 11.2% | 1.7% | 206 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Scott Carroll R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.25 | 10.5% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .289 | 6.06 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 22 | +0.81 | 3.78 | 248 | 76 |
| David Fletcher R 2025 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 74 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.64 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.73 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.09 | 4.49 | 269 | 73 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.34 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .307 | 4.41 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.07 | 4.23 | 325 | 72 |
| Sam LeCure R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.27 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 91 | -0.13 | 4.27 | 171 | 72 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 71 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2027 · 5.12 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.12 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .353 | 3.44 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.68 | 3.29 | 283 | 70 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 70 |
| Jerome Williams R 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 69 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 68 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.32 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .293 | 3.59 | 10.8% | 5.2% | 216 | -0.73 | 3.18 | 450 | 67 |
| Nick Tepesch R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.38 | 10.1% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 276 | 66 |
| Alex Caldera R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.61 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 120 | 66 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 66 |
| Scott Copeland R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.72 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 4.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 569 | 65 |
| Hector Galvan R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.64 | 14.3% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 406 | 65 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.43 | 14.9% | 7.2% | 4.9% | .277 | 5.21 | 16.3% | 8.8% | 259 | -0.22 | 3.84 | 567 | 63 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 63 |
| Cody Mincey R 2025 · 5.46 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.46 | 13.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.46 | 147 | 63 |
| Randy Wynne R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.58 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | .283 | 7.08 | 11.0% | 6.9% | 60 | +1.50 | 4.52 | 461 | 62 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.