Graham Ashcraft
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 248 lbs
MLB
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91
ERA3.56
FIP3.94
K%19.0%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%9.2%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
Whiff%
p9032.4%
K%
p8929.4%
xwOBA vs
p760.287
SL+3.2 (49%)
CT-0.8 (51%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 111 | 454 | 129 | 37 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.5% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 1.2% | 3.00 | 3.00 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 111 | 454 | 129 | 37 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 28.4% | 8.1% | 20.3% | 0.9% | 3.00 | 2.24 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 143 | 649 | 112 | 47 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 16.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 4.27 | 3.58 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 143 | 649 | 112 | 47 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 17.3% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 1.7% | 4.27 | 3.52 | +3.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 26 | 26 | 146 | 624 | 111 | 52 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.57 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 26 | 26 | 146 | 624 | 111 | 52 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 89 | 398 | 69 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.34 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 89 | 398 | 69 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.3% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.28 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 62 | 0 | 65 | 284 | 64 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 0.7% | 3.99 | 2.68 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 62 | 0 | 65 | 284 | 64 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 0.7% | 3.99 | 2.69 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 26 | 0 | 27 | 109 | 32 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 13.8% | 15.6% | 1.8% | 3.33 | 3.37 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 0 | 24 | 102 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 3.56 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 3.56 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 51 | 211 | 51 | 25 | 4 | — | — | 24.3% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 2.0% | 3.44 | 3.64 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 51 | 216 | 51 | 25 | 4 | — | — | 23.8% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 2.0% | 3.44 | 3.64 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 69 | 0 | 73 | 307 | 52 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 4.40 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 289 | 46 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 4.65 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 41 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 10.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 70 | 0 | 73 | 308 | 52 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 4.40 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 46 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 4.65 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 41 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 10.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 366 | 60 | 650 | 2799 | 494 | 247 | 73 | 16% | 1.8 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 4.16 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 18 | 200 | 862 | 152 | 76 | 22 | 16% | 1.8 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 181 | 93 | 582 | 2518 | 478 | 212 | 54 | 51% | 3.2 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 4.18 | 3.73 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 32 | 200 | 866 | 164 | 73 | 18 | 51% | 3.2 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 4.18 | 3.73 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Graham Ashcraft (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 13.0% | 8.5% | 2.3% | — | 4.82 | 16.1% | 5.9% | 205 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 59 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 58 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 57 |
| Calvin Drummond R 2024 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.51 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 112 | 56 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 56 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 55 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 55 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 55 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 55 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.90 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.37 | 23.2% | 16.5% | 145 | -0.53 | 2.22 | 385 | 55 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.60 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.16 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.44 | 2.16 | 186 | 55 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 55 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 55 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.36 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .302 | 3.71 | 26.9% | 20.4% | 93 | -0.65 | 3.59 | 331 | 54 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 556 | 54 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 54 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 54 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 54 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 54 |
| Andrew Kittredge R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.70 | 21.6% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .336 | 2.71 | 28.9% | 24.6% | 159 | -0.99 | 2.47 | 667 | 54 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 64 | 15.5% | 9.9% | 0.97 | 4.57 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |