Graham Ashcraft — OGILVIE

Graham Ashcraft P Cincinnati Reds

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 248 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA3.60

FIP3.98

K%18.6%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3040

Statcast Percentiles

Whiff%

p8731.1%

p7927.6%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

SL+3.2 (47%)

CT-0.8 (53%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	454	129	37	4	100%	5.0	22.5%	9.1%	13.4%	1.1%	3.00	2.96	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	111	454	129	37	4	100%	5.0	28.4%	8.1%	20.3%	0.9%	3.00	2.24	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	143	649	112	47	11	100%	5.1	16.0%	7.4%	8.7%	1.6%	4.27	3.56	+2.3
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	143	649	112	47	11	100%	5.1	17.3%	7.2%	10.0%	1.7%	4.27	3.52	+2.4
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	146	624	111	52	23	100%	5.6	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	3.4%	4.76	4.53	+0.6
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	146	624	111	52	23	100%	5.6	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	3.4%	4.76	4.53	+0.6
2023	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	146	624	111	52	23	100%	5.6	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	3.7%	4.76	4.70	+0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	89	398	69	29	12	100%	5.3	16.3%	7.7%	8.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.30	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	89	398	69	29	12	100%	5.3	16.3%	7.7%	8.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.30	+0.6
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	89	398	69	29	12	100%	5.3	17.3%	7.3%	10.1%	3.0%	4.94	4.28	+0.7
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	62	0	65	284	64	25	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	0.7%	3.99	2.67	+1.5
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	62	0	65	284	64	25	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	0.7%	3.99	2.67	+1.5
2025	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	62	0	65	284	64	25	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	0.7%	3.99	2.69	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			151	60	423	1849	338	150	49	40%	2.8	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	2.7%	4.77	4.07	+2.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	34	1	34	148	41	20	2	3%	1.0	27.6%	13.4%	14.2%	1.5%	4.76	3.27	+0.5
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	34	1	34	148	41	20	2	3%	1.0	27.6%	13.4%	14.2%	1.5%	4.76	3.27	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	CIN	5	1	5	21	6	3	0	20%	0.9	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.50	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	CIN	29	0	29	127	35	17	2	0%	1.0	27.6%	13.4%	14.2%	1.6%	4.91	3.33	+0.4
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	CIN	29	0	29	127	35	17	2	0%	1.0	27.6%	13.4%	14.2%	1.6%	4.91	3.33	+0.4
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CIN	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	18.6%	9.7%	8.8%	2.2%	3.60	3.98	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	CIN	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	9.7%	8.8%	2.2%	3.60	3.98	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	40	175	46	23	3	—	—	26.3%	12.9%	13.4%	1.5%	4.58	3.38	+0.6
FULL	28	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	36	150	46	23	3	—	—	30.5%	15.0%	15.5%	1.7%	5.18	3.37	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CIN	69	0	73	307	52	31	7	0%	1.1	16.8%	10.0%	6.8%	2.3%	4.36	4.57	-0.0
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	65	0	68	289	46	30	7	0%	1.1	16.1%	10.3%	5.8%	2.5%	4.61	4.78	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	CIN	70	0	73	308	52	31	7	0%	1.0	16.8%	10.0%	6.8%	2.3%	4.36	4.57	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	65	0	68	287	46	30	7	0%	1.0	16.1%	10.3%	5.8%	2.5%	4.61	4.78	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		291	60	570	2472	441	213	64	21%	2.0	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	2.6%	4.69	4.10	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		102	21	200	867	155	75	22	21%	2.0	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	2.6%	4.69	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		189	94	589	2557	487	217	52	50%	3.1	19.0%	8.5%	10.6%	2.0%	4.25	3.69	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	32	200	869	165	74	18	50%	3.1	19.0%	8.5%	10.6%	2.0%	4.25	3.69	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Graham Ashcraft (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	13.0%	8.5%	2.3%	—	4.67	16.4%	6.3%	141	-0.02	—	—	—
Wily Peralta R 2017 · 4.64 FIP	28	SW	4.64	17.9%	11.9%	2.8%	.333	4.74	19.4%	6.9%	110	+0.10	3.98	748	64
Albert Suárez R 2018 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	15.7%	12.1%	2.9%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	596	60
Mike Wright Jr. R 2018 · 4.16 FIP	28	SU	4.16	19.1%	9.0%	2.8%	.333	3.83	19.4%	11.3%	201	-0.33	3.76	725	60
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	59
Derek Law R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	23.5%	13.0%	2.8%	.306	3.31	20.8%	12.2%	110	-0.99	2.49	520	59
Juan Minaya R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	22.9%	9.7%	2.8%	.318	4.35	21.5%	9.7%	118	+0.45	3.20	446	58
Trevor Cahill R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	28	SU	4.22	23.2%	11.8%	2.9%	.274	4.60	21.1%	11.2%	310	+0.38	3.37	556	58
Chris Bassitt R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	28	SW	3.83	17.5%	9.8%	1.7%	.313	3.80	21.7%	14.1%	336	-0.03	3.02	1,554	58
Trevor May R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SU	3.74	26.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.291	3.47	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.27	3.05	432	58
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	57
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	57
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	57
Trent Thornton R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	28	SU	4.02	20.4%	9.5%	2.6%	.280	3.91	21.7%	14.6%	175	-0.11	3.20	892	57
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	56
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	56
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	56
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	56
Michael Blazek R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	28	SP-	3.85	16.0%	9.5%	1.6%	.317	5.72	20.8%	11.4%	39	+1.87	2.99	221	56
Michael Lorenzen R 2020 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	23.8%	10.9%	1.9%	.290	4.15	18.7%	9.7%	280	+0.64	3.17	1,178	56
Drew VerHagen R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	28	SW	4.11	19.5%	7.3%	3.2%	.344	6.00	17.0%	4.7%	22	+1.89	2.80	487	55

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	72	15.2%	9.6%	0.90	4.42
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78