Graham Ashcraft

P Cincinnati Reds

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 248 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	17	17	89	4.94	4.28	17.3%	7.3%	1.2	K 16.3% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.30
2025	27	MLBCIN	62	0	65	3.99	2.69	22.5%	8.8%	1.5
2026	28	MIX2 levels	40	1	40	4.05	3.33	26.7%	14.5%	0.6	K 26.5% · BB 14.6% · FIP 3.38
2027PROJ	29	MLBCIN	28	0	29	4.18	5.16	10.0%	11.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ	30	MLBCIN	18	0	19	4.85	5.30	10.0%	11.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ	31	MLBCIN	12	0	13	5.06	5.20	12.0%	10.9%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%73

xwOBA vs61

CompsJared Fernandez (age 29) · Alex Caldera (age 29) · Jon Leicester (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 103

ERA4.18

FIP5.16

K%10.0%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%-1.0%

Proj IP29

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

Whiff%

p8330.5%

p7326.5%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	454	129	37	4	100%	5.0	22.5%	9.1%	13.4%	1.1%	3.00	2.96	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	111	454	129	37	4	100%	5.0	28.4%	8.1%	20.3%	0.9%	3.00	2.24	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	143	649	112	47	11	100%	5.1	16.0%	7.4%	8.7%	1.6%	4.27	3.56	+3.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	143	649	112	47	11	100%	5.1	17.3%	7.2%	10.0%	1.7%	4.27	3.52	+3.3
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	146	624	111	52	23	100%	5.6	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	3.4%	4.76	4.53	+1.5
2023	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	146	624	111	52	23	100%	5.6	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	3.7%	4.76	4.70	+1.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	89	398	69	29	12	100%	5.3	16.3%	7.7%	8.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.30	+1.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	89	398	69	29	12	100%	5.3	16.3%	7.7%	8.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.30	+1.2
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	89	398	69	29	12	100%	5.3	17.3%	7.3%	10.1%	3.0%	4.94	4.28	+1.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	62	0	65	284	64	25	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	0.7%	3.99	2.67	+1.5
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	62	0	65	284	64	25	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	0.7%	3.99	2.67	+1.5
2025	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	62	0	65	284	64	25	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	0.7%	3.99	2.69	+1.5
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	40	172	46	25	2	2%	1.0	26.5%	14.6%	11.9%	1.2%	4.05	3.38	+0.6
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	40	172	46	25	2	2%	1.0	26.5%	14.6%	11.9%	1.2%	4.05	3.38	+0.6
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	1	40	172	46	25	2	2%	1.0	26.7%	14.5%	12.2%	1.2%	4.05	3.33	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			157	60	429	1873	343	155	49	38%	2.7	18.3%	8.3%	10.0%	2.6%	4.70	4.07	+2.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CIN	28	0	29	122	12	13	3	0%	1.0	10.0%	11.0%	-1.0%	2.0%	4.18	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	18	0	19	81	8	9	2	0%	1.1	10.0%	11.3%	-1.3%	2.2%	4.85	5.30	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	CIN	13	0	13	57	7	6	1	0%	1.0	12.0%	10.9%	1.1%	2.5%	5.06	5.20	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	18	0	19	80	8	9	2	0%	1.1	10.0%	11.3%	-1.3%	2.2%	4.85	5.30	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	CIN	12	0	13	55	7	6	1	0%	1.1	12.0%	10.9%	1.1%	2.5%	5.06	5.20	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		188	60	461	2011	358	170	52	32%	2.5	17.8%	8.5%	9.3%	2.6%	4.72	4.10	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		82	26	200	872	155	74	23	32%	2.5	17.8%	8.5%	9.3%	2.6%	4.72	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		195	94	595	2581	492	222	52	48%	3.0	19.1%	8.6%	10.5%	2.0%	4.21	3.69	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	32	200	868	165	75	18	48%	3.0	19.1%	8.6%	10.5%	2.0%	4.21	3.69	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 5 IPFIP 2.50 → 2.65 (+0.16)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.860	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 2.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 12 IPFIP 2.66 → 2.89 (+0.23)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×0.900	3.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.111	×1.100	2.06%

Result: FIP 2.66 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 35 IPFIP 2.63 → 2.90 (+0.27)K% 20.5% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.47%	—	×0.880	18.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.94%	—	×1.050	10.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.282	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 2.63 → 2.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 72 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.46 (+0.71)K% 25.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.26%	—	×0.810	20.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.19%	—	×1.100	9.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷0.950	×1.200	1.73%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Dayton Dragons · 39 IPFIP 1.24 → 2.05 (+0.82)K% 34.2% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.16%	—	×0.770	26.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.07%	—	×1.150	9.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.960	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 1.24 → 2.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Graham Ashcraft (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	10.0%	11.0%	2.0%	—	5.26	10.8%	-0.3%	33	+0.10	—	—	—
Jared Fernandez R 2001 · 4.66 FIP	29	SW	4.66	8.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.267	3.95	14.0%	5.6%	89	-0.71	3.57	101	68
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	65
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	64
Wes Obermueller R 2005 · 4.86 FIP	28	SW	4.86	10.8%	11.1%	2.3%	.290	4.83	12.6%	1.4%	59	-0.03	4.72	308	63
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	62
Mike McCarthy R 2016 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	6.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.78	153	61
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	60
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	59
Benjamin Sandoval R 2016 · 5.13 FIP	29	SU	5.13	6.7%	11.3%	2.1%	.292	5.51	9.0%	-4.4%	49	+0.38	4.66	146	58
David Holman R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	29	SW	5.80	8.9%	10.7%	3.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	5.28	129	58
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	57
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	57
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	57
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	345	57
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	57
Victor Mateo R 2016 · 5.45 FIP	27	SW	5.45	10.2%	12.2%	3.0%	.370	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	199	57
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	57
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	57
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	9.0%	10.2%	2.0%	.386	5.03	12.2%	3.1%	45	+0.30	4.07	203	57
Albert Suárez R 2018 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	15.7%	12.1%	2.9%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	616	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	61	17.3%	8.8%	0.99	4.69
Robert Gsellman ('22)	1.8	73	18.0%	7.8%	1.03	4.60
Gary Ross ('68-'77, -0 WAR*)	3.6	89	16.8%*	9.2%*	0.91*	4.80*
Harry Parker ('70-'76, 1 WAR*)	1.6	79	17.8%*	8.7%*	1.04*	4.49*
Jim Shellenback ('66-'77, -2 WAR*)	2.3	76	15.2%*	9.7%*	1.08*	4.78*
Jeanmar Gómez ('19)	2.8	62	14.8%	7.6%	1.00	4.51
Ross Detwiler ('22)	3.8	68	15.3%	8.2%	1.11	4.56