Graham Ashcraft
P
Cincinnati Reds
+0.1
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 248 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.30
FIP4.02
xFIP3.23
SIERA3.26
K%20.3%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%11.8%
IP76
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†3030
SL+3.2 (50%)
CT-0.8 (50%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 22 | 22 | 111 | 454 | 129 | 37 | 4 | 22.5% | 9.1% | 1.1% | 3.00 | 2.96 | +2.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 28 | 28 | 143 | 649 | 112 | 47 | 11 | 16.0% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 4.27 | 3.61 | +2.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 26 | 26 | 146 | 624 | 111 | 52 | 23 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.42 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 17 | 17 | 89 | 398 | 69 | 29 | 12 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.20 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 62 | 0 | 65 | 284 | 64 | 25 | 2 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 0.6% | 3.99 | 2.67 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 10 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 28 | 24 | 6 | 10.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | 4.33 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 76 | 318 | 41 | 28 | 6 | 12.9% | 8.8% | 1.9% | 4.00 | 4.27 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 74 | 315 | 42 | 28 | 7 | 13.4% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 4.34 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 39 | 27 | 7 | 12.8% | 8.9% | 2.1% | 4.56 | 4.70 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 36 | 27 | 7 | 12.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 4.71 | 4.80 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 33 | 26 | 6 | 11.6% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 30 | 25 | 6 | 11.0% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 4.96 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 10.3% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 5.10 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 10.0% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 5.22 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 23 | 23 | 6 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 5.33 | 5.40 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 165 | 93 | 565 | 2447 | 459 | 201 | 49 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 4.18 | 3.65 | +10.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 33 | 200 | 867 | 163 | 71 | 17 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 4.18 | 3.65 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Graham Ashcraft (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 10.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | — | 4.70 | 12.8% | 3.9% | 217 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Sandoval R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.69 | 8.6% | 7.8% | 2.4% | .253 | 5.17 | 5.8% | -5.7% | 62 | +0.48 | 4.69 | 146 | 60 |
| Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2029 · 4.37 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.37 | 9.8% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .307 | 3.54 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 80 | -0.83 | 2.23 | 173 | 59 |
| Eder Llamas R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.85 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.65 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.20 | 3.23 | 171 | 59 |
| Drew Hayes R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 1.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 117 | 59 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.56 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .365 | 4.27 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.29 | 4.27 | 125 | 58 |
| Esteban Haro R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.03 | 11.6% | 8.4% | 1.5% | .302 | 4.25 | 15.6% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.22 | 3.73 | 164 | 58 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.29 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.78 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.49 | 3.39 | 212 | 58 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2029 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.80 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.86 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.06 | 4.80 | 104 | 58 |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.50 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.37 | 11.6% | 2.4% | 107 | -0.13 | 4.13 | 156 | 57 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.10 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 4.07 | 14.1% | 5.5% | 68 | -1.03 | 4.06 | 256 | 57 |
| Collin Balester R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.20 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -1.03 | 3.20 | 116 | 57 |
| Rob Griswold R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.70 | 8.3% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 203 | 57 |
| Marco Camarena R 2024 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.75 | 8.4% | 7.5% | 0.7% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 142 | 56 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2027 · 5.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.73 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.3% | .346 | 5.52 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.21 | 5.52 | 117 | 56 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.40 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.6% | .256 | 2.93 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 65 | -1.47 | 2.59 | 130 | 56 |
| John Church R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.85 | 13.2% | 5.7% | 2.1% | .278 | 2.78 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 30 | -1.07 | 2.78 | 101 | 56 |
| Jake Lemoine R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.51 | 14.8% | 12.0% | 3.9% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 290 | 56 |
| Tyler Mizenko R 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.14 | 13.3% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 104 | 56 |
| Alex Cobb R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.17 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.3% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.74 | 2.72 | 844 | 56 |
| Kyle McMyne R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 12.5% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 181 | 56 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.