Joe Boyle
P
Tampa Bay Rays
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 26
RHP
6'8" / 250 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.56
FIP4.20
xFIP3.92
SIERA3.87
K%26.7%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%13.2%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†6565
FB Velo
p8797.1
Whiff%
p5726.4%
K%
p6124.2%
xwOBA vs
p350.329
FB+1.1 (43%)
SL (44%)
SI (19%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 8 | 8 | 20 | 81 | 41 | 14 | 1 | 36.4% | 26.9% | 2.4% | 2.29 | 4.74 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 23 | 22 | 101 | 419 | 153 | 84 | 6 | 28.4% | 22.8% | 1.7% | 2.86 | 4.52 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 28 | 28 | 133 | 582 | 183 | 98 | 8 | 26.2% | 18.3% | 1.7% | 3.58 | 4.13 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 28 | 23 | 93 | 423 | 127 | 79 | 8 | 28.0% | 19.1% | 2.0% | 5.79 | 4.27 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 31 | 26 | 138 | 572 | 172 | 68 | 13 | 27.7% | 12.2% | 2.0% | 2.93 | 3.40 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 3 | 16 | 66 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 24.2% | 9.1% | 1.5% | 5.17 | 3.04 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TB | 8 | — | 8 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.3% | 4.13 | 3.65 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 24 | 99 | 25 | 10 | 2 | 25.5% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 4.82 | 3.24 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 55 | 25 | 5 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.3% | 4.22 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TB | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 54 | 25 | 5 | 27.9% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 4.12 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TB | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 52 | 25 | 5 | 27.4% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 4.13 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TB | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 49 | 24 | 5 | 26.9% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 4.19 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TB | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 47 | 23 | 5 | 26.3% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | TB | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 44 | 23 | 4 | 25.7% | 13.3% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | TB | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 41 | 22 | 4 | 25.0% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | TB | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 38 | 21 | 4 | 24.3% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | TB | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 34 | 20 | 4 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | TB | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 31 | 19 | 4 | 22.8% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 110 | 501 | 2143 | 594 | 381 | 40 | 27.7% | 17.8% | 1.9% | 3.67 | 4.03 | +7.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 44 | 200 | 856 | 237 | 152 | 16 | 27.7% | 17.8% | 1.9% | 3.67 | 4.03 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Boyle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.07 | 29.1% | 13.5% | 2.4% | — | 4.08 | 27.7% | 14.8% | 138 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| David Morgan R 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.37 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 148 | 74 |
| Zach Maxwell R 2024 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 23.6% | 14.8% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 165 | 74 |
| Cody Carroll R 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.80 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 6.50 | 24.3% | 12.3% | 24 | +2.70 | 3.67 | 311 | 74 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.48 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .245 | 4.81 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.33 | 3.04 | 230 | 72 |
| Kyle Finnegan R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.30 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 1.2% | .314 | 3.43 | 25.8% | 16.2% | 141 | +0.13 | 2.54 | 692 | 71 |
| R.J. Alvarez R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.50 | 24.8% | 15.6% | 1.0% | .310 | 4.24 | 22.9% | 13.1% | 98 | +0.74 | 3.01 | 302 | 71 |
| Brian Ellington R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.68 | 25.5% | 14.9% | 3.4% | .283 | 5.60 | 22.4% | 5.3% | 29 | +0.92 | 2.75 | 233 | 71 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.00 | 23.2% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .333 | 3.70 | 23.7% | 15.0% | 136 | +0.70 | 2.36 | 309 | 70 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 70 |
| JD Hammer R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.91 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 91 | +0.15 | 1.72 | 285 | 70 |
| James Bourque R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 25.7% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 312 | 70 |
| Chad Smith R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.32 | 23.4% | 14.4% | 0.7% | .256 | 4.86 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 101 | +1.54 | 3.32 | 258 | 69 |
| Bruce Rondón R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.44 | 24.6% | 13.7% | 1.2% | .364 | 3.31 | 26.0% | 9.8% | 30 | -0.13 | 3.30 | 184 | 69 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.00 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .306 | 3.65 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.35 | 2.94 | 157 | 69 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.50 | 22.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .205 | 4.26 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 211 | -0.24 | 4.02 | 328 | 69 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 69 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 69 |
| José Cisnero R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 69 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 62 | +1.27 | 3.36 | 206 | 68 |
| Yosver Zulueta R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.48 | 24.7% | 13.0% | 1.5% | .339 | 4.37 | 27.5% | 14.1% | 60 | +0.89 | 3.19 | 246 | 68 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2023
Service 1.029 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $9M | +$2M | ||