Joe Boyle

P Durham Bulls

Age 27 RHP 6'8" / 250 lbs AAA peak 0.8 · 2027 ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

AAASP40M40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	28	23	93	5.79	4.03	30.0%	18.7%	1.5	K 27.7% · BB 17.8% · FIP 4.15
2025	25	MIX2 levels	31	26	138	2.93	3.31	30.1%	11.9%	3.5	K 27.3% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.31
2026	26	MIX2 levels	27	17	86	7.35	3.84	27.6%	15.0%	1.6	K 24.4% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.96
2027PROJ	27	MLBTB	8	8	48	4.49	4.30	28.2%	14.5%	0.6
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBTB	9	9	55	4.42	4.38	28.1%	14.6%	0.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBTB	8	8	48	4.49	4.54	27.5%	14.8%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%70

xwOBA vs55

CompsTony Gonsolin (age 27) · River Ryan (age 25) · Austin Bergner (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.49

FIP4.30

K%28.2%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p4224.2%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	20	81	41	14	1	100%	2.5	36.4%	26.9%	9.4%	2.4%	2.29	4.73	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	20	81	41	14	1	100%	2.5	50.6%	17.3%	33.3%	1.2%	2.29	1.73	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	101	419	153	84	6	96%	4.4	28.4%	22.8%	5.7%	1.7%	2.86	4.52	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	101	419	153	84	6	96%	4.4	36.5%	20.0%	16.5%	1.4%	2.86	3.34	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	133	582	183	98	8	100%	4.8	26.1%	18.1%	8.1%	1.7%	3.58	4.10	+2.1
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	133	582	183	98	8	100%	4.8	31.4%	16.8%	14.6%	1.4%	3.58	3.34	+3.4
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	93	423	127	79	8	82%	3.3	27.7%	17.8%	9.9%	2.1%	5.79	4.15	+1.4
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	93	423	127	79	8	82%	3.3	27.7%	17.8%	9.9%	2.1%	5.79	4.15	+1.4
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	23	93	423	127	79	8	82%	3.3	30.0%	18.7%	11.3%	1.9%	5.79	4.03	+1.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	138	572	172	68	13	84%	4.5	27.3%	11.2%	16.1%	2.0%	2.93	3.31	+3.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	138	572	172	68	13	84%	4.5	27.3%	11.2%	16.1%	2.0%	2.93	3.31	+3.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	26	138	572	172	68	13	84%	4.5	30.1%	11.9%	18.2%	2.3%	2.93	3.31	+3.5
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	17	86	406	112	61	8	63%	3.2	24.4%	13.7%	10.7%	2.1%	7.35	3.96	+1.5
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	17	86	406	112	61	8	63%	3.2	24.4%	13.7%	10.7%	2.1%	7.35	3.96	+1.5
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	17	86	406	112	61	8	63%	3.2	27.6%	15.0%	12.6%	2.0%	7.35	3.84	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	25	135	593	150	81	12	76%	4.1	25.3%	13.7%	11.6%	2.0%	5.01	3.84	+2.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TB	8	8	48	203	57	29	5	100%	6.0	28.2%	14.5%	13.8%	2.5%	4.49	4.30	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	58	245	69	36	6	100%	5.8	28.1%	14.6%	13.5%	2.6%	4.42	4.38	+0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	51	214	59	32	6	100%	6.3	27.5%	14.8%	12.7%	2.7%	4.49	4.54	+0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	55	232	65	34	6	100%	6.1	28.1%	14.6%	13.5%	2.6%	4.42	4.38	+0.7
2029	29	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	48	203	56	30	6	100%	6.0	27.5%	14.8%	12.7%	2.7%	4.49	4.54	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	42	238	1029	271	145	24	84%	4.8	26.4%	14.1%	12.3%	2.3%	4.77	3.92	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	35	200	865	228	122	20	84%	4.7	26.4%	14.1%	12.3%	2.3%	4.77	3.92	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		145	124	571	2483	673	417	48	86%	3.9	27.1%	16.8%	10.3%	1.9%	4.18	3.99	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	43	200	870	236	146	17	86%	3.9	27.1%	16.8%	10.3%	1.9%	4.18	3.99	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 67 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.19 (+0.25)K% 28.0% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.860	24.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×0.900	14.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.37%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 86 IPFIP 2.93 → 2.94 (+0.01)K% 32.9% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.95%	—	×0.860	28.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.85%	—	×0.900	10.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.380	×1.100	1.61%

Result: FIP 2.93 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 46 IPFIP 3.68 → 3.96 (+0.29)K% 36.0% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.04%	—	×0.860	30.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.80%	—	×0.900	17.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷1.001	×1.100	2.23%

Result: FIP 3.68 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 101 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.26 (+0.94)K% 32.9% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.89%	—	×0.810	26.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.98%	—	×1.100	19.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.957	×1.200	1.65%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 16 IPFIP 3.74 → 3.94 (+0.20)K% 27.3% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.860	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×0.900	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷0.996	×1.100	1.67%

Result: FIP 3.74 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 75 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.97 (+1.26)K% 40.7% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.67%	—	×0.770	31.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.67%	—	×1.150	22.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷1.058	×1.250	1.18%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 26 IPFIP 4.95 → 5.92 (+0.98)K% 26.1% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.05%	—	×0.810	21.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.01%	—	×1.100	23.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷0.990	×1.200	3.05%

Result: FIP 4.95 → 5.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADaytona Tortugas · 13 IPFIP 2.80 → 4.73 (+1.93)K% 49.1% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	49.12%	—	×0.740	36.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.81%	—	×1.180	26.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷0.969	×1.300	2.35%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.80 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Boyle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	28.2%	14.5%	2.5%	—	4.45	27.8%	13.1%	109	+0.15	—	—	—
Tony Gonsolin R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	27.2%	14.2%	3.2%	.250	3.92	21.7%	13.9%	233	-0.45	2.00	704	64
River Ryan R 2024 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	23.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.280	2.44	22.7%	18.1%	41	-0.74	2.44	223	58
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	57
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	56
Kyle Wright R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	27	SP-	4.41	21.9%	11.0%	3.2%	.354	5.09	19.7%	6.4%	13	+0.68	3.32	669	55
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	55
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	54
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	54
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	53
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	53
Alex Meyer R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	27	SP	3.99	25.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	230	53
José De León R 2019 · 3.24 FIP	26	SP-	3.24	28.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.314	3.60	35.0%	22.1%	30	+0.36	3.24	445	53
Chad Kuhl R 2020 · 5.42 FIP	27	SP-	5.42	22.3%	14.2%	4.4%	.231	4.99	18.8%	8.0%	256	-0.43	3.92	983	52
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	52
Matt Frisbee R 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP	4.42	18.3%	14.3%	1.9%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	463	51
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	418	51
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	51
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	50
Gavin Williams R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	24.7%	9.8%	2.3%	.317	3.83	29.1%	19.2%	352	+0.29	3.39	697	50
Luke Hudson R 2004 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	18.6%	11.8%	1.5%	.237	4.59	14.2%	3.9%	187	+0.77	3.81	235	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	59	26.7%	14.3%	0.90	4.72
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Charlie Kerfeld ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.0	50	22.3%*	12.7%*	0.72*	4.84*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Chad Fox ('09)	1.1	57	25.8%	13.2%	0.87	3.79
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07