Joe Boyle — OGILVIE

Joe Boyle P Durham Bulls

Age 26 RHP 6'8" / 250 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.1 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION86 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 92

ERA4.09

FIP3.97

K%27.4%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p4224.2%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

FB+1.1 (44%)

SL (44%)

SI (19%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.029 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$5M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$14M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	20	81	41	14	1	100%	2.5	36.4%	26.9%	9.4%	2.4%	2.29	4.73	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	20	81	41	14	1	100%	2.5	50.6%	17.3%	33.3%	1.2%	2.29	1.73	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	101	419	153	84	6	96%	4.4	28.4%	22.8%	5.7%	1.7%	2.86	4.52	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	101	419	153	84	6	96%	4.4	36.5%	20.0%	16.5%	1.4%	2.86	3.34	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	133	582	183	98	8	100%	4.8	26.0%	18.1%	8.0%	1.7%	3.58	4.11	+1.3
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	133	582	183	98	8	100%	4.8	26.0%	18.1%	8.0%	1.7%	3.58	4.11	+1.3
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	133	582	183	98	8	100%	4.8	31.4%	16.8%	14.6%	1.4%	3.58	3.34	+2.5
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	93	423	127	79	8	82%	3.3	27.2%	17.8%	9.4%	2.1%	5.79	4.20	+0.8
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	93	423	127	79	8	82%	3.3	27.2%	17.8%	9.4%	2.1%	5.79	4.20	+0.8
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	23	93	423	127	79	8	82%	3.3	30.0%	18.7%	11.3%	1.9%	5.79	4.03	+1.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	138	572	172	68	13	84%	4.5	26.7%	11.2%	15.5%	2.0%	2.93	3.36	+2.6
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	138	572	172	68	13	84%	4.5	26.7%	11.2%	15.5%	2.0%	2.93	3.36	+2.6
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	26	138	572	172	68	13	84%	4.5	30.1%	11.9%	18.2%	2.3%	2.93	3.31	+2.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	25	135	593	150	81	12	76%	4.1	25.3%	13.7%	11.6%	2.0%	5.01	3.84	+1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	27	17	86	406	112	61	8	63%	3.2	23.8%	13.7%	10.0%	2.1%	7.35	4.01	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	27	17	86	406	112	61	8	63%	3.2	23.8%	13.7%	10.0%	2.1%	7.35	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	TB	23	14	67	325	91	52	7	61%	2.9	28.0%	16.0%	12.0%	2.2%	7.96	3.94	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	TB	4	3	19	81	21	9	1	75%	4.8	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	1.2%	5.21	3.00	+0.4
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	TB	4	3	19	81	21	9	1	75%	4.8	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	1.2%	5.21	3.00	+0.4
ROS	26	MLB MLE	TB	1	1	6	27	7	4	1	100%	6.4	27.4%	14.6%	12.9%	2.4%	4.09	3.97	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	TB	1	1	6	25	7	4	1	100%	6.0	27.4%	14.6%	12.9%	2.5%	4.13	4.01	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	92	433	119	65	9	—	—	27.6%	15.0%	12.6%	2.0%	7.13	4.01	+0.9
FULL	26	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	25	107	119	65	9	—	—	111.2%	60.5%	50.7%	8.1%	25.80	5.81	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	126	533	151	76	12	100%	6.0	28.3%	14.2%	14.1%	2.3%	4.20	4.17	+1.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	126	533	150	76	13	100%	6.0	28.1%	14.3%	13.8%	2.4%	4.23	4.25	+1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	121	509	140	74	13	100%	6.0	27.6%	14.5%	13.0%	2.6%	4.34	4.41	+0.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	113	479	129	71	13	100%	6.0	26.9%	14.8%	12.0%	2.8%	4.51	4.62	+0.4
2031	31	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	106	446	116	68	13	100%	5.9	26.1%	15.2%	10.9%	3.0%	4.71	4.85	+0.1
2032	32	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	98	413	104	64	13	100%	6.1	25.3%	15.6%	9.7%	3.3%	4.95	5.10	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	120	507	143	72	12	100%	6.0	28.3%	14.2%	14.1%	2.4%	4.24	4.21	+1.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	120	507	143	73	13	100%	6.0	28.1%	14.3%	13.8%	2.5%	4.27	4.29	+0.9
2029	29	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	115	486	134	71	13	100%	6.1	27.6%	14.5%	13.0%	2.7%	4.38	4.45	+0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	108	456	122	68	13	100%	6.0	26.9%	14.8%	12.0%	2.9%	4.56	4.67	+0.4
2031	31	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	100	422	110	64	13	100%	5.9	26.1%	15.2%	10.9%	3.1%	4.76	4.90	+0.1
2032	32	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	93	393	99	61	13	100%	5.8	25.3%	15.6%	9.7%	3.4%	5.00	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		144	136	797	3388	908	493	90	94%	5.5	26.8%	14.5%	12.3%	2.6%	4.59	4.13	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	851	228	124	23	94%	5.6	26.8%	14.5%	12.3%	2.6%	4.59	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		145	124	571	2483	664	417	48	86%	3.9	26.7%	16.8%	9.9%	1.9%	4.18	4.02	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	43	200	870	233	146	17	86%	3.9	26.7%	16.8%	9.9%	1.9%	4.18	4.02	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Boyle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	28.9%	14.8%	2.4%	—	4.27	28.0%	13.7%	373	+0.02	—	—	—
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	66
Kyle Hurt R 2023 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP-	3.47	31.9%	11.9%	2.9%	.324	3.44	28.5%	15.0%	68	-0.03	2.83	248	65
Alex Meyer R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	26	SP-	3.10	26.2%	10.9%	1.5%	.299	3.99	25.5%	12.7%	91	+0.89	3.10	230	64
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	63
Tyler Guilfoil R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	23	SP-	3.18	26.0%	12.3%	1.3%	.305	5.52	17.8%	4.4%	190	+2.34	3.18	274	62
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	61
Tony Dibrell R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	26	SP-	4.96	23.8%	17.4%	3.0%	.314	8.67	12.7%	-1.7%	29	+3.71	4.18	347	61
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	60
Riley O'Brien R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP	4.54	21.7%	11.6%	3.3%	.258	3.32	25.5%	12.5%	108	-1.22	2.41	580	60
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	59
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	59
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	58
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	58
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	57
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	57
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	57
Griff McGarry R 2023 · 4.17 FIP	24	SP	4.17	25.9%	17.1%	2.0%	.231	4.40	25.2%	5.5%	131	+0.23	2.46	278	57
Keaton Winn R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	20.6%	7.2%	3.2%	.310	4.37	18.9%	10.7%	122	+0.36	3.68	457	56
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.44	15.8%	9.4%	113	+1.68	2.78	181	56
José De León R 2019 · 3.24 FIP	26	SP-	3.24	28.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.314	3.60	35.0%	22.1%	30	+0.36	3.24	445	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	108	27.3%	14.7%	1.04	4.46
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47