Joe Boyle
P
Durham Bulls
Age 26
RHP
6'8" / 250 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.1 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10899vR 90
ERA4.00
FIP3.91
K%28.2%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8797.1
Whiff%
p5726.4%
K%
p6124.2%
xwOBA vs
p360.328
FB+1.1 (44%)
SL (44%)
SI (19%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 8 | 20 | 81 | 41 | 14 | 1 | 100% | 2.5 | 36.4% | 26.9% | 9.4% | 2.4% | 2.29 | 4.77 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 8 | 20 | 81 | 41 | 14 | 1 | 100% | 2.5 | 50.6% | 17.3% | 33.3% | 1.2% | 2.29 | 1.73 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 101 | 419 | 153 | 84 | 6 | 96% | 4.4 | 28.4% | 22.8% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 2.86 | 4.50 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 101 | 419 | 153 | 84 | 6 | 96% | 4.4 | 36.5% | 20.0% | 16.5% | 1.4% | 2.86 | 3.34 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 133 | 582 | 183 | 98 | 8 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.2% | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.7% | 3.58 | 4.16 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 133 | 582 | 183 | 98 | 8 | 100% | 4.8 | 31.4% | 16.8% | 14.6% | 1.4% | 3.58 | 3.34 | +3.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 23 | 93 | 423 | 127 | 79 | 8 | 82% | 3.3 | 28.0% | 19.1% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 5.79 | 4.27 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 23 | 93 | 423 | 127 | 79 | 8 | 82% | 3.3 | 30.0% | 18.7% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 5.79 | 4.03 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 26 | 138 | 572 | 172 | 68 | 13 | 84% | 4.5 | 27.7% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 1.9% | 2.93 | 3.34 | +3.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 26 | 138 | 572 | 172 | 68 | 13 | 84% | 4.5 | 30.1% | 11.9% | 18.2% | 2.3% | 2.93 | 3.31 | +3.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 18 | 10 | 48 | 236 | 63 | 36 | 1 | 56% | 2.7 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% | 7.45 | 3.29 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TB | 5 | 5 | 32 | 136 | 38 | 21 | 3 | 100% | 6.4 | 28.2% | 15.7% | 12.5% | 2.2% | 4.00 | 3.91 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TB | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 38 | 21 | 3 | 100% | 6.4 | 28.2% | 15.7% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 3.97 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 80 | 372 | 101 | 57 | 4 | — | — | 27.2% | 15.4% | 11.8% | 1.1% | 6.07 | 3.54 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 48 | 202 | 101 | 57 | 4 | — | — | 50.2% | 28.4% | 21.8% | 1.9% | 10.20 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 84 | 43 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 28.5% | 14.7% | 13.8% | 2.4% | 4.25 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 81 | 43 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 28.4% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 4.29 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 76 | 41 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.8% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 61 | 257 | 70 | 40 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.1% | 15.4% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 63 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 26.4% | 15.7% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 52 | 222 | 57 | 36 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.6% | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 80 | 41 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 28.5% | 14.7% | 13.8% | 2.3% | 4.21 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 78 | 41 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.4% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 4.25 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 73 | 40 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 27.8% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 4.36 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 66 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.1% | 15.4% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 60 | 36 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.4% | 15.7% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 54 | 34 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.6% | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 91 | 518 | 2209 | 593 | 328 | 55 | 93% | 5.3 | 26.8% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 4.58 | 4.07 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 35 | 200 | 854 | 229 | 127 | 21 | 93% | 5.3 | 26.8% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 4.58 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 136 | 117 | 533 | 2313 | 635 | 412 | 39 | 86% | 3.9 | 27.5% | 17.8% | 9.6% | 1.7% | 3.97 | 3.97 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 44 | 200 | 867 | 238 | 155 | 15 | 86% | 3.9 | 27.5% | 17.8% | 9.6% | 1.7% | 3.97 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Boyle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 29.5% | 15.7% | 2.4% | — | 4.34 | 28.3% | 13.4% | 203 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Alex Meyer R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.14 | 26.2% | 10.9% | 1.6% | .299 | 4.04 | 25.5% | 12.7% | 91 | +0.90 | 3.14 | 230 | 63 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 63 |
| Shane Smith R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.22 | 26.3% | 12.3% | 1.4% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 309 | 62 |
| Sean Mooney R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 61 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.18 | 23.8% | 17.4% | 3.4% | .314 | 8.89 | 13.5% | -3.3% | 29 | +3.71 | 4.21 | 347 | 61 |
| River Ryan R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.34 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 1.7% | .280 | 2.13 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 36 | -1.21 | 2.13 | 218 | 60 |
| Bryce Mayer R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 27.2% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 140 | 60 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 59 |
| Riley O'Brien R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.41 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .258 | 3.30 | 26.5% | 12.3% | 108 | -1.11 | 2.45 | 559 | 59 |
| Brooks Auger R 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 26.3% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 138 | 58 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 58 |
| Logan Tabeling R 2024 · 3.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.16 | 24.6% | 11.5% | 1.2% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 113 | 58 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.67 | 24.8% | 13.3% | 3.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 258 | 57 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 57 |
| David Lebron R 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 57 |
| Niko Mazza R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.41 | 22.0% | 15.9% | 2.1% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 165 | 57 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 57 |
| Griff McGarry R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.65 | 27.4% | 16.3% | 1.5% | .263 | 5.67 | 22.7% | -8.8% | 23 | +2.02 | 2.46 | 273 | 57 |
| Burch Smith R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 56 |
| Jimmy Lambert R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.46 | 25.0% | 12.0% | 3.5% | .276 | 4.95 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 114 | +0.49 | 3.44 | 526 | 56 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 60 | 27.6% | 15.3% | 1.04 | 4.51 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |