Beck Way

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	48	0	59	4.12	3.76	24.3%	14.6%	—	K 19.6% · BB 15.6% · FIP 4.52
2025	25	MIX2 levels	46	0	74	5.93	5.02	16.1%	12.0%	—	K 13.4% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.22
2026	26	MIX3 levels	40	1	55	4.42	3.45	27.2%	8.2%	0.7	K 24.5% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.82
2027PROJ	27	MLBKC	87	0	91	4.66	4.62	23.1%	10.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ80% MLB	28	MLBKC	78	0	82	4.65	4.66	22.8%	10.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ85% MLB	29	MLBKC	70	0	74	4.72	4.79	22.2%	10.7%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%35

xwOBA vs25

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsJake Stinnett (age 27) · Grant Black (age 27) · Joe Colón J (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.62

K%23.1%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP128

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.4

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	63	270	83	38	5	95%	3.3	23.1%	16.5%	6.6%	2.4%	3.98	4.53	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	63	270	83	38	5	95%	3.3	30.7%	14.1%	16.7%	1.9%	3.98	3.31	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	108	443	127	43	10	100%	4.9	22.1%	11.2%	10.9%	2.7%	3.75	4.13	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	108	443	127	43	10	100%	4.9	28.7%	9.7%	19.0%	2.3%	3.75	3.15	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	28	17	80	387	80	62	10	61%	2.8	16.7%	17.6%	-0.9%	3.6%	6.67	5.87	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	28	17	80	387	80	62	10	61%	2.8	20.7%	16.0%	4.7%	2.6%	6.67	5.06	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	59	268	65	39	4	0%	1.2	19.6%	15.6%	4.0%	2.0%	4.12	4.52	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	59	268	65	39	4	0%	1.2	19.6%	15.6%	4.0%	2.0%	4.12	4.52	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	59	268	65	39	4	0%	1.2	24.3%	14.6%	9.7%	1.5%	4.12	3.76	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	74	342	55	41	10	0%	1.6	13.4%	11.7%	1.7%	3.2%	5.93	5.22	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	74	342	55	41	10	0%	1.6	13.4%	11.7%	1.7%	3.2%	5.93	5.22	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	74	342	55	41	10	0%	1.6	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	2.9%	5.93	5.02	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	55	243	66	20	7	2%	1.4	24.5%	8.0%	16.4%	3.2%	4.42	3.82	+0.5
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	55	243	66	20	7	2%	1.4	24.5%	8.0%	16.4%	3.2%	4.42	3.82	+0.5
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	1	55	243	66	20	7	2%	1.4	27.2%	8.2%	18.9%	2.9%	4.42	3.45	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	1	23	105	21	10	4	5%	1.2	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.8%	3.86	4.81	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	KC	87	0	91	384	89	42	12	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.8%	12.2%	3.1%	4.66	4.62	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	97	0	102	430	98	46	14	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.7%	12.2%	3.2%	4.65	4.66	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	KC	83	0	87	368	82	39	12	0%	1.0	22.2%	10.7%	11.5%	3.3%	4.72	4.79	-0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	KC	73	0	76	322	69	35	11	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.8%	10.7%	3.5%	4.86	4.97	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	78	0	82	346	79	37	11	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.7%	12.2%	3.2%	4.65	4.66	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	KC	70	0	74	312	69	33	10	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.7%	11.5%	3.3%	4.72	4.79	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	KC	64	0	67	283	61	31	10	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.8%	10.7%	3.5%	4.86	4.97	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		231	1	246	1047	230	111	36	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	3.4%	4.65	4.45	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	1	200	850	187	90	29	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	3.4%	4.65	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		203	58	439	1953	382	263	56	29%	2.2	19.6%	13.5%	6.1%	2.9%	4.81	4.74	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	26	200	889	174	120	26	29%	2.2	19.6%	13.5%	6.1%	2.9%	4.81	4.74	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 31 IPFIP 2.56 → 2.97 (+0.41)K% 32.6% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.58%	—	×0.860	28.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.58%	—	×0.900	6.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 2.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 38 IPFIP 5.95 → 6.14 (+0.18)K% 13.4% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.41%	—	×0.860	11.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.53%	—	×0.900	13.07%
HR / BF /BF	3.91%	÷1.003	×1.100	4.29%

Result: FIP 5.95 → 6.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 36 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.21 (+0.54)K% 19.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.02%	—	×0.810	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.20%	—	×1.100	10.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.84%	÷1.077	×1.200	2.05%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 58 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.52 (+0.82)K% 24.1% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.810	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.18%	—	×1.100	15.59%
HR / BF /BF	1.53%	÷0.920	×1.200	2.00%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 80 IPFIP 4.80 → 5.87 (+1.07)K% 20.7% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.67%	—	×0.810	16.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.02%	—	×1.100	17.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷0.872	×1.200	3.56%

Result: FIP 4.80 → 5.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 108 IPFIP 3.15 → 4.13 (+0.98)K% 28.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.67%	—	×0.770	22.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.71%	—	×1.150	11.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷1.047	×1.250	2.70%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ATampa Tarpons · 47 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.32 (+1.12)K% 27.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.69%	—	×0.740	20.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.87%	—	×1.180	17.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 16 IPFIP 3.55 → 5.08 (+1.53)K% 38.7% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.67%	—	×0.770	29.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.150	13.80%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.00%

Result: FIP 3.55 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Beck Way (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	23.1%	10.8%	3.1%	—	4.79	22.2%	11.5%	265	+0.17	—	—	—
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	73
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	72
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	72
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	72
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	72
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	72
José A. Váldez R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	21.6%	8.3%	3.8%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.24	4.02	328	72
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	72
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	71
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	71
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	71
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	71
Cristofer Ogando R 2021 · 4.83 FIP	27	SU	4.83	26.8%	10.9%	4.8%	.281	4.90	20.6%	9.0%	53	+0.07	3.23	179	71
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	71
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	70
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	70
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	70
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	70
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	69
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	22.5%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.86	4.73	183	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	83	22.4%	10.7%	1.28	4.66
Wes Gardner ('84-'91, -0 WAR*)	2.3	78	23.2%*	10.4%*	1.24*	5.03*
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86