Beck Way — OGILVIE

Beck Way P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%18.6%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.4

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	63	270	83	38	5	95%	3.3	23.1%	16.5%	6.6%	2.4%	3.98	4.53	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	63	270	83	38	5	95%	3.3	30.7%	14.1%	16.7%	1.9%	3.98	3.31	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	108	443	127	43	10	100%	4.9	22.1%	11.2%	10.9%	2.7%	3.75	4.13	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	108	443	127	43	10	100%	4.9	28.7%	9.7%	19.0%	2.3%	3.75	3.15	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	28	17	80	387	80	62	10	61%	2.8	16.7%	17.6%	-0.9%	3.6%	6.67	5.87	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	28	17	80	387	80	62	10	61%	2.8	16.7%	17.6%	-0.9%	3.6%	6.67	5.87	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	28	17	80	387	80	62	10	61%	2.8	20.7%	16.0%	4.7%	2.6%	6.67	5.06	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	59	268	65	39	4	0%	1.2	19.6%	15.6%	4.0%	2.0%	4.12	4.52	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	59	268	65	39	4	0%	1.2	19.6%	15.6%	4.0%	2.0%	4.12	4.52	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	59	268	65	39	4	0%	1.2	24.3%	14.6%	9.7%	1.5%	4.12	3.76	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	74	342	55	41	10	0%	1.6	13.2%	11.7%	1.5%	3.2%	5.93	5.23	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	74	342	55	41	10	0%	1.6	13.2%	11.7%	1.5%	3.2%	5.93	5.23	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	74	342	55	41	10	0%	1.6	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	2.9%	5.93	5.02	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	1	23	105	21	10	4	5%	1.2	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.8%	3.86	4.81	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	40	1	55	243	66	20	7	2%	1.4	23.9%	8.0%	15.9%	3.2%	4.42	3.86	+0.4
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	40	1	55	243	66	20	7	2%	1.4	23.9%	8.0%	15.9%	3.2%	4.42	3.86	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	KC	1	0	1	6	2	0	0	0%	0.7	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	27.00	0.29	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	KC	20	0	31	132	43	10	3	0%	1.6	32.6%	7.6%	25.0%	2.3%	4.35	2.56	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	KC	19	1	23	105	21	10	4	5%	1.2	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.8%	3.86	4.71	-0.0
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	KC	19	1	23	105	21	10	4	5%	1.2	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.8%	3.86	4.71	-0.0
ROS	26	MLB MLE	KC	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	12.6%	6.1%	3.1%	4.81	4.81	-0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	KC	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	12.6%	6.1%	3.1%	4.81	4.81	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	61	268	71	23	8	—	—	26.4%	8.6%	17.7%	2.9%	4.46	3.95	+0.4
FULL	26	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	29	123	71	23	8	—	—	57.3%	18.8%	38.5%	6.3%	9.29	4.09	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	KC	120	0	126	532	93	66	17	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.4%	5.1%	3.2%	5.33	5.35	-1.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	116	0	122	516	92	63	17	0%	1.1	17.7%	12.2%	5.5%	3.3%	5.31	5.35	-1.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	KC	111	0	117	493	87	60	17	0%	1.1	17.7%	12.2%	5.5%	3.5%	5.36	5.42	-1.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	KC	105	0	110	464	81	57	17	0%	1.0	17.5%	12.4%	5.1%	3.6%	5.48	5.57	-1.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	KC	114	0	120	507	89	63	16	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.4%	5.1%	3.2%	5.33	5.35	-1.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	110	0	116	490	87	60	16	0%	1.1	17.7%	12.2%	5.5%	3.3%	5.31	5.35	-1.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	KC	106	0	111	469	83	57	16	0%	1.0	17.7%	12.2%	5.5%	3.5%	5.36	5.42	-1.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	KC	99	0	104	439	77	54	16	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.4%	5.1%	3.6%	5.48	5.57	-1.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		454	1	480	2035	361	248	70	0%	1.1	17.8%	12.2%	5.6%	3.4%	5.29	5.02	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	847	150	103	29	0%	1.1	17.8%	12.2%	5.6%	3.4%	5.29	5.02	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		203	58	439	1953	380	263	56	29%	2.2	19.5%	13.5%	6.0%	2.9%	4.81	4.74	-4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	26	200	889	173	120	26	29%	2.2	19.5%	13.5%	6.0%	2.9%	4.81	4.74	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Beck Way (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.57	16.0%	13.9%	3.1%	—	5.37	17.7%	5.4%	365	-0.20	—	—	—
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	76
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	75
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	75
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	74
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	74
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	73
Andrew Bash R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	17.6%	12.7%	2.6%	.249	4.07	16.7%	7.2%	231	-0.56	3.52	483	73
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	72
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	72
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	72
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	72
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	72
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	71
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	71
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	70
Andrés Machado R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	17.8%	10.1%	4.0%	.230	3.77	19.6%	10.7%	127	-1.32	3.63	530	70
Matthew Grimes R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	26	SW	4.65	14.7%	10.9%	2.6%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	451	70
Kevin McGowan R 2018 · 4.86 FIP	26	SW	4.86	18.3%	9.7%	3.8%	.322	5.41	15.4%	4.7%	64	+0.55	2.94	426	70
Blaine Knight R 2022 · 5.02 FIP	26	SW	5.02	17.3%	11.5%	3.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	269	70
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	119	17.3%	12.6%	1.29	5.41
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32