Beck Way — OGILVIE

Beck Way P Omaha Storm Chasers

+0.0 WAR

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%17.8%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%5.2%

IP70

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.0peak

2026

K†4045

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	19	18	63	270	83	38	5	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	3.98	4.53	+0.3
2022	22	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	108	443	127	43	10	22.1%	11.2%	2.7%	3.75	4.13	+1.4
2023	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	28	17	80	387	80	62	10	16.7%	17.6%	3.4%	6.67	5.79	-0.6
2024	24	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	48	0	59	268	65	39	4	19.6%	15.6%	2.1%	4.12	4.56	+0.3
2025	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	46	0	74	342	55	41	10	13.5%	12.8%	3.2%	5.93	5.34	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	6	0	12	54	14	5	0	22.8%	9.7%	0.0%	4.50	2.40	+0.3
ROS	26	MLB	KC	13	13	70	296	52	37	9	17.8%	12.6%	3.1%	5.26	5.26	-0.2
2026 Total	26	MLB	KC	—	—	82	350	66	42	9	19.0%	12.1%	2.6%	5.15	4.84	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	KC	13	13	70	293	54	36	9	18.4%	12.3%	3.1%	5.17	5.18	-0.1
2028	28	MLB	KC	12	12	68	289	54	35	9	18.7%	12.1%	3.1%	5.13	5.14	-0.1
2029	29	MLB	KC	12	12	67	283	53	34	9	18.8%	12.0%	3.1%	5.12	5.14	-0.1
2030	30	MLB	KC	12	12	65	274	51	33	9	18.7%	12.1%	3.2%	5.15	5.19	-0.1
2031	31	MLB	KC	11	11	63	265	49	32	9	18.5%	12.2%	3.3%	5.22	5.26	-0.2
2032	32	MLB	KC	11	11	60	254	46	31	9	18.2%	12.3%	3.4%	5.30	5.35	-0.3
2033	33	MLB	KC	58	—	58	243	43	30	8	17.9%	12.5%	3.4%	5.39	5.44	-0.3
2034	34	MLB	KC	55	—	55	231	40	29	8	17.5%	12.7%	3.5%	5.49	5.55	-0.4
2035	35	MLB	KC	52	—	52	217	37	28	8	17.2%	12.9%	3.7%	5.60	5.67	-0.4
2036	36	MLB	KC	48	—	48	204	34	27	8	16.7%	13.2%	3.8%	5.72	5.81	-0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			169	57	396	1764	336	253	48	19.0%	14.3%	2.7%	4.86	4.80	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			85	29	200	890	170	128	24	19.0%	14.3%	2.7%	4.86	4.80	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Beck Way (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	17.8%	12.6%	3.1%	—	5.15	18.6%	6.5%	205	-0.11	—	—	—
Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.29 FIP	27	SW	4.29	18.0%	12.5%	2.1%	.296	3.94	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.35	3.68	146	91
Grant Black R 2027 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.46	15.2%	3.1%	156	+1.00	4.46	215	89
Roman Phansalkar R 2026 · 5.36 FIP	26	SW	5.36	15.8%	13.2%	3.5%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.03	4.33	164	89
Stephen Johnson R 2025 · 5.17 FIP	25	SW	5.17	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	88
Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.26 FIP	27	SW	4.26	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.69	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.57	2.69	125	88
Julian Arballo R 2027 · 5.14 FIP	27	SW	5.14	15.1%	13.8%	2.9%	.335	4.48	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.66	4.42	214	87
Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.54 FIP	25	SW	4.54	20.7%	14.0%	2.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Brad Schreiber R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	26	SW	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	171	86
Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.76 FIP	25	SW	4.76	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	106	86
Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	26	SW	4.57	18.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	86
Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	26	SW	4.58	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.73	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.15	4.58	151	86
Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.297	3.85	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.93	3.85	102	86
Tanner Scheppers R 2028 · 4.38 FIP	28	SW	4.38	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.82	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.44	4.38	101	85
Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 5.28 FIP	26	SW	5.28	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.12	3.16	253	85
Josh Zeid R 2028 · 4.13 FIP	28	SW	4.13	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.06	4.13	265	85
Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.06	3.69	239	85
Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	19.6%	10.5%	3.9%	.293	4.50	12.8%	-1.5%	34	-0.43	1.27	164	85
Confesor Lara R 2025 · 4.26 FIP	25	SW	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	111	85
Merrick Baldo R 2025 · 4.61 FIP	25	SW	4.61	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.69	116	85
Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	26	SW	4.52	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	169	85

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.