Tanner McDougal — OGILVIE

Tanner McDougal P Charlotte Knights

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.2 · 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%22.8%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4550

CTRL4040

CMD3540

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	6	4	10	42	17	5	2	67%	1.6	40.5%	11.9%	28.6%	4.8%	9.31	3.80	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	6	4	10	42	17	5	2	67%	1.6	40.5%	11.9%	28.6%	4.8%	9.31	3.82	—
2023	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	69	300	80	43	5	100%	3.3	19.7%	16.9%	2.8%	2.5%	4.15	4.96	—
2023	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	69	300	80	43	5	100%	3.3	19.7%	16.9%	2.8%	2.5%	4.15	4.96	—
2023	20	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	69	300	80	43	5	100%	3.3	26.7%	14.3%	12.3%	1.7%	4.15	3.59	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	92	425	116	58	13	100%	4.2	20.8%	15.8%	5.0%	4.7%	6.04	5.92	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	92	425	116	58	13	100%	4.2	20.8%	15.8%	5.0%	4.7%	6.04	5.92	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	92	425	116	58	13	100%	4.2	27.3%	13.6%	13.6%	3.1%	6.04	4.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	113	481	136	49	7	100%	4.0	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	2.1%	3.26	3.82	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	113	481	136	49	7	100%	4.0	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	2.1%	3.26	3.82	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	113	481	136	49	7	100%	4.0	28.3%	10.2%	18.1%	1.5%	3.26	2.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	0	5	0	3	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	60.0%	-60.0%	0.0%	27.00	30.10	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	26	6	46	212	50	33	8	23%	1.8	19.4%	13.2%	6.1%	3.9%	5.09	5.29	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	26	6	46	212	50	33	8	23%	1.8	19.4%	13.2%	6.1%	3.9%	5.09	5.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	CWS	2	0	2	10	4	1	1	0%	1.0	40.0%	10.0%	30.0%	10.0%	13.50	6.48	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	CWS	23	6	44	197	46	29	7	26%	1.9	23.4%	14.7%	8.6%	3.6%	4.53	4.94	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	CWS	1	0	0	5	0	3	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	60.0%	-60.0%	0.0%	27.00	10.70	—
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	CWS	1	0	0	5	0	3	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	60.0%	-60.0%	0.0%	27.00	10.70	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	27	6	4	1	0%	1.1	22.8%	13.9%	8.8%	2.9%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	CWS	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	13.9%	8.8%	3.0%	4.96	4.96	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	52	239	56	37	9	—	—	23.5%	15.4%	8.1%	3.7%	5.07	5.24	-0.4
FULL	23	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	7	28	56	37	9	—	—	200.1%	131.1%	69.1%	31.4%	39.99	20.03	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	131	551	128	69	16	100%	5.7	23.2%	12.4%	10.8%	2.9%	4.76	4.69	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	26	26	150	634	149	73	18	100%	5.8	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	2.9%	4.61	4.54	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	27	27	162	685	162	77	20	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.50	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	27	27	160	675	159	76	20	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.3%	12.3%	3.0%	4.54	4.54	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	26	26	155	654	154	75	20	100%	6.0	23.5%	11.4%	12.0%	3.1%	4.59	4.62	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	148	625	145	73	20	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.7%	11.6%	3.2%	4.69	4.75	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	139	587	134	70	20	100%	6.0	22.9%	12.0%	10.9%	3.4%	4.83	4.93	-0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	130	548	123	67	20	100%	5.9	22.5%	12.3%	10.2%	3.6%	5.01	5.13	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	CWS	22	22	124	524	122	65	15	100%	5.6	23.2%	12.4%	10.8%	3.0%	4.79	4.72	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	24	24	143	604	142	70	18	100%	6.0	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	2.9%	4.64	4.57	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	26	26	154	650	154	73	19	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.57	4.53	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	25	25	152	642	151	72	19	100%	6.1	23.6%	11.3%	12.3%	3.0%	4.57	4.57	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	24	24	147	621	146	71	19	100%	6.1	23.5%	11.4%	12.0%	3.1%	4.62	4.65	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	24	24	141	595	138	69	19	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.7%	11.6%	3.3%	4.72	4.78	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	22	22	132	557	128	67	19	100%	6.0	22.9%	12.0%	10.9%	3.5%	4.86	4.96	-0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	123	519	117	64	19	100%	6.2	22.5%	12.3%	10.2%	3.7%	5.04	5.16	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		195	188	1123	4743	1103	558	150	96%	5.8	23.3%	11.8%	11.5%	3.2%	4.72	4.36	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	845	197	99	27	96%	5.8	23.3%	11.8%	11.5%	3.2%	4.72	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		103	81	331	1460	313	206	48	79%	3.2	21.4%	14.1%	7.3%	3.3%	4.65	4.88	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	49	200	883	189	125	29	79%	3.2	21.4%	14.1%	7.3%	3.3%	4.65	4.88	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner McDougal (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	22.8%	13.9%	2.9%	—	4.57	23.5%	11.8%	443	-0.36	—	—	—
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	87
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	83
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	83
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.39	21.4%	10.8%	274	-0.90	3.36	374	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	82
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	82
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	80
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	80
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	79
Ryan Cardona R 2023 · 3.85 FIP	23	SP-	3.85	22.8%	16.5%	1.1%	.262	4.44	16.8%	3.5%	211	+0.59	3.62	367	79
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	79
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	79
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	79
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.3	140	23.2%	11.9%	1.20	4.70
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32