Tanner McDougal
P
Charlotte Knights
Age 23
RHP
6'5" / 185 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.1 · 2031
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132122vR 113
ERA4.99
FIP4.99
K%22.8%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%9.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 6 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 67% | 1.6 | 40.5% | 11.9% | 28.6% | 4.8% | 9.31 | 3.80 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 6 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 67% | 1.6 | 40.5% | 11.9% | 28.6% | 4.8% | 9.31 | 3.82 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 21 | 21 | 69 | 300 | 80 | 43 | 5 | 100% | 3.3 | 19.7% | 16.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 5.23 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 21 | 21 | 69 | 300 | 80 | 43 | 5 | 100% | 3.3 | 26.7% | 14.3% | 12.3% | 1.7% | 4.15 | 3.59 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 92 | 425 | 116 | 58 | 13 | 100% | 4.2 | 20.8% | 15.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.04 | 6.66 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 92 | 425 | 116 | 58 | 13 | 100% | 4.2 | 27.3% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 6.04 | 4.30 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 113 | 481 | 136 | 49 | 7 | 100% | 4.0 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 3.26 | 4.08 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 113 | 481 | 136 | 49 | 7 | 100% | 4.0 | 28.3% | 10.2% | 18.1% | 1.5% | 3.26 | 2.80 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 11 | 6 | 29 | 122 | 36 | 17 | 3 | 55% | 2.6 | 25.1% | 15.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | 3.41 | 3.96 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 62 | 36 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.8% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.99 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CWS | 5 | 5 | 26 | 110 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.8% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 94 | 395 | 98 | 53 | 12 | — | — | 24.8% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.67 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 26 | 109 | 25 | 14 | 4 | — | — | 22.8% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 125 | 527 | 122 | 62 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.76 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 25 | 144 | 609 | 143 | 67 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.5% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.62 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 26 | 26 | 156 | 660 | 156 | 71 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.58 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 153 | 70 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 25 | 149 | 631 | 148 | 69 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 143 | 603 | 140 | 67 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 130 | 65 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 5.00 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 119 | 63 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 5.09 | 5.20 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 116 | 488 | 108 | 60 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 5.29 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 79 | 40 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.79 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 112 | 53 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 134 | 61 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.61 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 138 | 583 | 138 | 63 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 136 | 64 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 129 | 62 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 121 | 61 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 5.03 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 113 | 60 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 5.13 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 102 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 5.33 | 5.47 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 188 | 188 | 1114 | 4704 | 1088 | 534 | 164 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.50 | +11.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 96 | 29 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 88 | 81 | 314 | 1370 | 302 | 197 | 51 | 92% | 3.6 | 22.1% | 14.4% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 4.48 | 5.11 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 52 | 200 | 874 | 193 | 125 | 33 | 92% | 3.6 | 22.1% | 14.4% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 4.48 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner McDougal (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.99 | 22.8% | 13.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.65 | 23.5% | 12.3% | 425 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 87 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .269 | 4.98 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.04 | 4.60 | 529 | 85 |
| James Proctor R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.35 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.33 | 4.02 | 109 | 84 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 84 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 83 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 83 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 83 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 82 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 82 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 82 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.80 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.56 | 2.21 | 778 | 82 |
| Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.66 | 20.3% | 12.6% | 3.1% | .266 | 5.22 | 16.1% | 2.8% | 185 | +0.56 | 3.71 | 370 | 81 |
| Luke Gabrysh R 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.55 | 21.8% | 13.7% | 4.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 138 | 81 |
| Max Bain R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.37 | 20.5% | 15.2% | 3.8% | .291 | 6.65 | 16.7% | -3.9% | 81 | +1.28 | 5.16 | 174 | 80 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 80 |
| Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 80 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.9% | .309 | 3.76 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 238 | -0.91 | 2.15 | 702 | 80 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 80 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 79 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 6.03 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.83 | 2.73 | 357 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 131 | 23.1% | 11.4% | 1.32 | 4.82 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Héctor Santiago ('21) | 6 | 99 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 1.56 | 4.48 |
| Jhoulys Chacín ('22) | 7 | 108 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 1.13 | 4.51 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |