Tanner McDougal — OGILVIE

Tanner McDougal P Charlotte Knights

+0.3 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2029

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.4%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%11.2%

IP113

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2029

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL White Sox	6	4	10	42	17	5	2	—	—	—	9.31	—	—
2023	20	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	69	300	80	43	5	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	4.15	4.94	+0.1
2024	21	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	22	22	92	425	116	58	13	20.8%	15.8%	4.9%	6.04	6.05	-0.9
2025	22	AA	Birmingham Barons	28	28	113	481	136	49	7	22.3%	11.5%	2.1%	3.26	3.82	+1.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AAA	Charlotte Knights	3	3	15	60	19	9	2	27.9%	15.8%	3.7%	2.40	4.75	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB	CWS	45	—	45	191	43	21	6	22.4%	11.2%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	+0.2
2026 Total	23	MLB	CWS	—	—	60	251	62	30	8	24.6%	12.1%	3.0%	4.08	4.66	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	CWS	24	24	132	558	128	57	16	22.9%	10.2%	2.9%	4.50	4.44	+1.3
2028	25	MLB	CWS	27	27	146	616	143	59	18	23.2%	9.6%	2.9%	4.40	4.34	+1.6
2029	26	MLB	CWS	28	28	153	645	151	61	19	23.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.34	4.31	+1.7
2030	27	MLB	CWS	28	28	156	657	154	62	19	23.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.33	4.32	+1.7
2031	28	MLB	CWS	28	28	155	656	153	62	19	23.3%	9.5%	3.0%	4.34	4.34	+1.7
2032	29	MLB	CWS	28	28	152	641	149	62	19	23.2%	9.6%	3.0%	4.37	4.39	+1.6
2033	30	MLB	CWS	27	27	147	622	143	60	19	23.0%	9.7%	3.1%	4.42	4.45	+1.4
2034	31	MLB	CWS	26	26	142	600	136	59	19	22.8%	9.8%	3.1%	4.48	4.53	+1.2
2035	32	MLB	CWS	25	25	136	576	129	57	19	22.5%	10.0%	3.2%	4.56	4.61	+1.1
2036	33	MLB	CWS	24	24	130	550	122	56	18	22.2%	10.1%	3.3%	4.65	4.71	+0.9
2037	34	MLB	CWS	23	23	124	523	114	54	18	21.8%	10.3%	3.4%	4.75	4.82	+0.7
2038	35	MLB	CWS	21	21	117	493	106	52	17	21.4%	10.6%	3.5%	4.86	4.94	+0.5
2039	36	MLB	CWS	20	20	109	461	97	50	17	21.0%	10.8%	3.6%	4.99	5.08	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			80	78	300	1308	288	188	43	22.0%	14.4%	3.3%	4.47	4.84	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—			53	52	200	873	192	125	29	22.0%	14.4%	3.3%	4.47	4.84	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner McDougal (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	22.4%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.36	23.2%	13.4%	431	-0.27	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	3.00	24.2%	12.6%	70	-1.56	2.12	117	93
Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	23	SU	4.31	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.11	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.20	4.01	142	92
Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.51	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.35	4.05	164	91
Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	91
Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	91
TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.99	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.09	3.35	394	91
Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	90
Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	90
Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	90
Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	90
Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	23	SU	3.90	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.56	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.66	3.90	132	90
Logan VanWey R 2027 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	23.9%	14.0%	2.8%	.301	4.39	26.1%	10.7%	96	-0.02	3.95	143	90
Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	3.95	18.2%	9.1%	96	-0.00	3.37	134	90
Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	26.9%	12.4%	3.1%	.295	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	88	+0.48	4.10	130	89
Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	23	SU	4.69	23.0%	11.7%	3.7%	.278	6.32	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.63	4.27	103	89
Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.09	4.10	112	89
Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.93	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.34	3.29	201	89
Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SU	3.66	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.87	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.21	3.66	123	88
Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	23.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.239	5.62	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.91	3.71	325	88
Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$11M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$14M	+$13M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+1.7	$15M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+1.7	$16M	+$10M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.6	$15M	+$8M
Totals		$18M		$86M	+$67M