Tanner McDougal

P Charlotte Knights

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	22	22	92	6.04	4.30	27.3%	13.6%	—	K 20.8% · BB 15.8% · FIP 5.92
2025	22	MIX2 levels	28	28	113	3.26	2.80	28.3%	10.2%	—	K 22.3% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.82
2026	23	MIX3 levels	28	7	50	4.86	5.10	23.2%	14.9%	-0.3	K 19.8% · BB 12.7% · FIP 5.02
2027PROJ	24	MLBCWS	11	11	59	5.03	5.03	21.7%	13.4%	0.2
2028PROJ79% MLB	25	MLBCWS	13	13	76	4.91	4.86	22.1%	12.1%	0.5
2029PROJ86% MLB	26	MLBCWS	14	14	83	4.82	4.79	22.3%	11.8%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.8 / P90 4.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Alfredo Figaro (age 25) · Blair Henley (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%21.7%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	6	4	10	42	17	5	2	67%	1.6	40.5%	11.9%	28.6%	4.8%	9.31	3.80	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	6	4	10	42	17	5	2	67%	1.6	40.5%	11.9%	28.6%	4.8%	9.31	3.82	—
2023	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	69	300	80	43	5	100%	3.3	19.7%	16.9%	2.8%	2.5%	4.15	4.96	—
2023	20	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	69	300	80	43	5	100%	3.3	26.7%	14.3%	12.3%	1.7%	4.15	3.59	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	92	425	116	58	13	100%	4.2	20.8%	15.8%	5.0%	4.7%	6.04	5.92	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	92	425	116	58	13	100%	4.2	20.8%	15.8%	5.0%	4.7%	6.04	5.92	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	92	425	116	58	13	100%	4.2	27.3%	13.6%	13.6%	3.1%	6.04	4.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	113	481	136	49	7	100%	4.0	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	2.1%	3.26	3.82	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	113	481	136	49	7	100%	4.0	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	2.1%	3.26	3.82	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	113	481	136	49	7	100%	4.0	28.3%	10.2%	18.1%	1.5%	3.26	2.80	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	7	50	228	53	34	8	25%	1.8	19.8%	12.7%	7.1%	3.6%	4.86	5.02	-0.3
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	7	50	228	53	34	8	25%	1.8	19.8%	12.7%	7.1%	3.6%	4.86	5.02	-0.3
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	7	50	228	53	34	8	25%	1.8	23.2%	14.9%	8.3%	3.5%	4.86	5.10	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	0	5	0	3	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	60.0%	-60.0%	0.0%	27.00	30.10	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CWS	11	11	59	249	54	33	8	100%	5.4	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	3.1%	5.03	5.03	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	96	407	90	49	12	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.1%	10.0%	3.1%	4.88	4.83	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	97	409	91	48	12	100%	6.0	22.3%	11.8%	10.6%	3.1%	4.79	4.76	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	92	388	87	45	12	100%	6.1	22.3%	11.6%	10.7%	3.1%	4.77	4.77	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	87	367	81	43	12	100%	6.2	22.1%	11.7%	10.5%	3.2%	4.81	4.85	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	81	341	75	41	11	100%	6.2	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.3%	4.91	4.98	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	73	309	67	38	11	100%	6.1	21.6%	12.2%	9.3%	3.5%	5.06	5.15	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	76	321	71	39	10	100%	5.8	22.1%	12.1%	10.0%	3.1%	4.91	4.86	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	83	350	78	41	11	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.8%	10.6%	3.1%	4.82	4.79	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	82	346	77	40	11	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.6%	10.7%	3.2%	4.80	4.80	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	80	338	75	39	11	100%	6.2	22.1%	11.7%	10.5%	3.3%	4.84	4.88	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	75	317	69	38	11	100%	6.2	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.4%	4.94	5.01	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	68	287	62	35	10	100%	6.2	21.6%	12.2%	9.3%	3.6%	5.09	5.18	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	78	465	1968	433	236	64	99%	5.9	22.0%	12.0%	10.0%	3.3%	4.91	4.55	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	846	186	101	28	99%	5.9	22.0%	12.0%	10.0%	3.3%	4.91	4.55	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		105	82	335	1476	317	207	48	78%	3.2	21.5%	14.0%	7.4%	3.2%	4.63	4.84	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	49	200	882	189	124	29	78%	3.2	21.5%	14.0%	7.4%	3.2%	4.63	4.84	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 48 IPFIP 4.75 → 5.02 (+0.27)K% 23.0% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.00%	—	×0.860	19.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.08%	—	×0.900	12.68%
HR / BF /BF	3.29%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.75 → 5.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 58 IPFIP 3.13 → 4.24 (+1.10)K% 28.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.74%	—	×0.770	22.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.60%	—	×1.150	14.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷0.923	×1.250	2.13%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.13 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABirmingham Barons · 56 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.36 (+0.92)K% 27.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.75%	—	×0.810	22.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.49%	—	×1.100	8.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.784	×1.200	2.02%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 57).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 66 IPFIP 5.05 → 7.08 (+2.02)K% 26.2% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.23%	—	×0.770	20.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.43%	—	×1.150	16.59%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷0.817	×1.250	6.52%

Result: FIP 5.05 → 7.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 27 IPFIP 2.04 → 2.97 (+0.92)K% 30.0% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.740	22.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.67%	—	×1.180	13.77%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.820	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 2.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 69 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.96 (+1.38)K% 26.7% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.740	19.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.33%	—	×1.180	16.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷0.861	×1.300	2.52%

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL White Sox · 10 IPFIP 3.80 → 6.22 (+2.42)K% 40.5% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.48%	—	×0.680	27.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.90%	—	×1.250	14.88%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.027	×1.400	6.49%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 3.80 → 6.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner McDougal (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.79	22.2%	10.4%	285	-0.24	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	85
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	81
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	79
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	79
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	78
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	77
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	77
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	75
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	75
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	75
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	75
Keagan Gillies R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP-	5.68	17.2%	11.3%	4.7%	.370	3.54	23.5%	13.9%	142	-2.14	2.93	177	75
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	74
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	74
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	74
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	74
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	74
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	71
Conor Grammes R 2021 · 5.74 FIP	24	SP	5.74	20.4%	11.4%	5.3%	.417	4.35	22.9%	4.9%	124	-1.39	4.11	171	71
Grant Kipp R 2024 · 4.75 FIP	24	SP-	4.75	18.9%	14.1%	2.7%	.263	4.55	20.9%	9.0%	201	-0.20	4.32	355	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	88	22.0%	12.2%	1.23	4.90
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64