Grant Kipp

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1431ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	13	10	41	6.15	3.22	26.0%	11.0%	—	K 18.9% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.75
2025	25	AACHC	26	23	109	4.22	3.85	23.5%	12.2%	—	K 19.0% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.73
2026	26	MIX2 levels	25	17	92	4.50	3.73	27.7%	10.2%	—	K 23.1% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.33
2027PROJ	27	MLBCHC	1	1	3	4.86	4.86	21.8%	11.7%	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	28	MLBCHC	5	5	29	4.78	4.81	21.7%	11.4%	0.2
2029PROJ42% MLB	29	MLBCHC	6	6	39	4.83	4.89	21.5%	11.4%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.6M2031Ext$5M2032Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsRorik Maltrud (age 24) · Yariel Rodríguez (age 27) · Daniel Ponce de Leon (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%21.8%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP129

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	21	96	19	7	3	100%	3.6	14.3%	9.4%	4.9%	4.7%	5.48	5.66	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	21	96	19	7	3	100%	3.6	19.8%	7.3%	12.5%	3.1%	5.48	4.13	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	99	424	105	35	10	96%	4.3	18.5%	9.7%	8.8%	2.8%	4.29	4.32	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	99	424	105	35	10	96%	4.3	24.8%	8.3%	16.5%	2.4%	4.29	3.35	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	41	181	47	20	3	77%	3.2	18.9%	14.1%	4.8%	2.7%	6.15	4.75	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	41	181	47	20	3	77%	3.2	18.9%	14.1%	4.8%	2.7%	6.15	4.75	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	41	181	47	20	3	77%	3.2	26.0%	11.0%	14.9%	1.7%	6.15	3.22	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	26	23	109	469	110	57	10	88%	4.2	19.0%	13.4%	5.6%	2.8%	4.22	4.73	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	26	23	109	469	110	57	10	88%	4.2	19.0%	13.4%	5.6%	2.8%	4.22	4.73	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	26	23	109	469	110	57	10	88%	4.2	23.5%	12.2%	11.3%	2.1%	4.22	3.85	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	92	393	109	40	12	68%	3.7	23.1%	10.0%	13.1%	3.5%	4.50	4.33	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	92	393	109	40	12	68%	3.7	23.1%	10.0%	13.1%	3.5%	4.50	4.33	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	92	393	109	40	12	68%	3.7	27.7%	10.2%	17.6%	3.1%	4.50	3.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CHC	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	21.8%	11.7%	10.2%	3.2%	4.86	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	105	443	96	51	14	100%	6.2	21.7%	11.4%	10.3%	3.3%	4.85	4.88	+0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	92	387	83	44	13	100%	6.1	21.5%	11.4%	10.1%	3.4%	4.90	4.96	+0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	82	345	73	40	12	100%	5.8	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	3.6%	5.01	5.11	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	29	122	27	14	4	100%	5.8	21.7%	11.4%	10.3%	3.1%	4.78	4.81	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	39	165	35	19	5	100%	6.5	21.5%	11.4%	10.1%	3.3%	4.83	4.89	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	44	186	39	21	6	100%	6.3	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	3.4%	4.94	5.04	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	19	112	472	101	54	16	100%	5.9	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	3.3%	4.86	4.55	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	181	97	29	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	3.3%	4.86	4.55	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		93	78	362	1563	306	177	48	84%	3.9	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.58	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	43	200	864	169	98	27	84%	3.9	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.58	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 51 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.76 (+0.80)K% 27.9% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.91%	—	×0.810	22.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.44%	—	×1.100	8.19%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.79%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 41 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.01 (+0.37)K% 27.5% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.53%	—	×0.860	23.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.48%	—	×0.900	12.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.93%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 109 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.73 (+0.90)K% 23.5% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.45%	—	×0.810	19.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.15%	—	×1.100	13.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷0.911	×1.200	2.81%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 36 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.75 (+1.11)K% 24.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.52%	—	×0.770	18.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.26%	—	×1.150	14.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷0.909	×1.250	2.66%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Cubs · 5 IPFIP 0.66 → 1.72 (+1.06)K% 34.6% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.62%	—	×0.680	23.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.85%	—	×1.250	4.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.935	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 0.66 → 1.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 78 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.91 (+1.04)K% 24.9% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.92%	—	×0.740	18.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.10%	—	×1.180	9.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷0.957	×1.300	2.12%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 21 IPFIP 4.82 → 5.58 (+0.75)K% 24.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.27%	—	×0.770	18.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.74%	—	×1.150	10.05%
HR / BF /BF	4.85%	÷1.197	×1.250	5.07%

Result: FIP 4.82 → 5.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 19 IPFIP 4.35 → 5.66 (+1.32)K% 19.3% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.32%	—	×0.740	14.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×1.180	9.39%
HR / BF /BF	3.41%	÷0.942	×1.300	4.70%

Result: FIP 4.35 → 5.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Kipp (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.97	21.5%	10.1%	278	+0.11	—	—	—
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	81
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	78
Daniel Ponce de Leon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP	4.09	22.8%	12.0%	2.5%	.246	5.09	22.7%	10.1%	182	+1.00	3.35	768	78
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	78
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	77
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	77
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	77
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	76
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	76
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	75
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	74
Dylan Cumming R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	25	SP-	3.75	21.6%	9.8%	2.2%	.337	4.63	16.6%	8.0%	198	+0.88	3.75	406	74
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	73
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	73
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	72
Rafael Montero R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	22.0%	11.2%	2.2%	.339	3.41	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.47	2.43	714	71
Bradin Hagens R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	26	SP-	3.79	14.6%	9.8%	1.2%	.277	4.92	14.9%	5.0%	55	+1.13	3.79	254	71
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	70
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	70
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	102	21.6%	11.5%	1.29	4.90
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Scipio Spinks ('69-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.7%*	12.2%*	1.04*	4.52*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*