Grant Kipp
P
Knoxville Smokies
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 220 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.6%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%8.9%
IP86
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 6 | 6 | 21 | 96 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 14.3% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 5.48 | 5.62 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 23 | 22 | 99 | 424 | 105 | 35 | 10 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.34 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 13 | 10 | 41 | 181 | 47 | 20 | 3 | 18.9% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 6.15 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 26 | 23 | 109 | 469 | 110 | 57 | 10 | 19.0% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 2 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 75 | 43 | 11 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.84 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 94 | 392 | 82 | 44 | 11 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 78 | 43 | 11 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.79 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 90 | 380 | 79 | 42 | 11 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.77 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 77 | 41 | 11 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.79 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 85 | 361 | 74 | 40 | 11 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.84 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 82 | 348 | 71 | 39 | 11 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.92 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 74 | 35 | 11 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.73 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 69 | 34 | 11 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.83 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 65 | 33 | 10 | 21.4% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.94 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 60 | 32 | 10 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.99 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 55 | 30 | 10 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 5.11 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 62 | 278 | 1199 | 222 | 139 | 35 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.59 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 45 | 200 | 863 | 160 | 100 | 25 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.59 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Kipp (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.78 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 267 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 86 |
| Trent Sellers R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 85 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.12 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.76 | 3.12 | 178 | 85 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.81 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.19 | 308 | 85 |
| David Lebron R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 85 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 84 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.35 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .285 | 4.28 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | -0.07 | 4.28 | 448 | 83 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 83 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 83 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .285 | 4.91 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.25 | 3.81 | 420 | 82 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 82 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 82 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .285 | 5.94 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.20 | 4.42 | 239 | 82 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 81 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 81 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 81 |
| Kevin Abel R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.51 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.78 | 15.1% | -7.3% | 13 | +1.27 | 4.50 | 352 | 81 |
| Hansel Robles R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.03 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 4.2% | .267 | 3.59 | 25.5% | 17.6% | 145 | -1.44 | 2.71 | 469 | 81 |
| Adam Quintana R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.72 | 201 | 81 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $5M | $7M | +$2M | ||