Cristian Hernandez

P FCL Twins

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1058ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	18	ROKMIN	11	7	30	11.53	5.36	18.4%	20.1%	—	K 12.5% · BB 25.1% · FIP 6.11
2024	19	ROKMIN	7	6	25	4.01	2.69	34.6%	15.9%	—	K 23.5% · BB 19.9% · FIP 4.39
2026	21	MIX2 levels	17	9	62	5.81	3.89	26.1%	12.5%	—	K 18.1% · BB 15.5% · FIP 5.41
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIN	—	—	0	5.27	5.27	20.4%	14.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBMIN	4	4	23	5.03	4.92	21.5%	13.0%	0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBMIN	6	6	33	4.81	4.69	22.2%	11.7%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJake Lyons (age 22) · Ray Gaither (age 24) · Noah Skirrow (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%20.4%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%5.6%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	7	30	174	32	35	2	64%	2.7	12.5%	25.1%	-12.6%	1.6%	11.53	6.11	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	7	30	174	32	35	2	64%	2.7	18.4%	20.1%	-1.7%	1.1%	11.53	5.36	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	7	6	25	107	37	17	1	86%	3.5	23.5%	19.9%	3.7%	1.4%	4.01	4.39	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	7	6	25	107	37	17	1	86%	3.5	23.5%	19.9%	3.7%	1.4%	4.01	4.39	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	7	6	25	107	37	17	1	86%	3.5	34.6%	15.9%	18.7%	0.9%	4.01	2.69	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	9	62	287	75	36	7	53%	3.6	18.1%	15.5%	2.6%	3.4%	5.81	5.41	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	9	62	287	75	36	7	53%	3.6	18.1%	15.5%	2.6%	3.4%	5.81	5.41	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	9	62	287	75	36	7	53%	3.6	26.1%	12.5%	13.6%	2.4%	5.81	3.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.4%	14.9%	5.6%	3.0%	5.27	5.27	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	48	201	43	26	6	100%	6.0	21.5%	13.0%	8.6%	2.9%	5.02	4.91	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	48	201	45	24	6	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.7%	10.5%	2.9%	4.80	4.68	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	45	188	43	21	5	100%	5.6	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	2.9%	4.64	4.54	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIN	7	7	45	188	43	20	5	100%	6.4	22.9%	10.8%	12.0%	2.9%	4.56	4.51	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIN	7	7	43	183	42	20	5	100%	6.2	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	2.9%	4.55	4.55	+0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	23	97	21	13	3	100%	5.8	21.5%	13.0%	8.6%	2.9%	5.03	4.92	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	33	139	31	16	4	100%	5.5	22.2%	11.7%	10.5%	2.9%	4.81	4.69	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	36	152	34	17	4	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	2.9%	4.65	4.55	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	39	165	38	18	5	100%	6.5	22.9%	10.8%	12.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.52	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	39	165	38	18	5	100%	6.5	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	3.0%	4.56	4.56	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	171	722	162	82	21	100%	5.9	22.5%	11.3%	11.2%	2.9%	4.69	4.24	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	96	25	100%	5.9	22.5%	11.3%	11.2%	2.9%	4.69	4.24	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		35	22	116	568	99	110	14	63%	3.3	17.4%	19.3%	-1.9%	2.5%	6.89	5.43	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	38	200	977	170	188	24	63%	3.3	17.4%	19.3%	-1.9%	2.5%	6.89	5.43	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Twins · 47 IPFIP 4.30 → 6.13 (+1.84)K% 26.5% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.48%	—	×0.680	18.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.24%	—	×1.250	16.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.20%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.47%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.30 → 6.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 15 IPFIP 2.29 → 3.08 (+0.78)K% 25.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.740	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×1.180	12.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.29 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Twins · 25 IPFIP 2.71 → 4.39 (+1.69)K% 34.6% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.58%	—	×0.680	23.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.89%	—	×1.250	19.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷0.939	×1.400	1.39%

Result: FIP 2.71 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Twins · 30 IPFIP 4.73 → 6.11 (+1.38)K% 18.4% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.39%	—	×0.680	12.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.11%	—	×1.250	25.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷1.003	×1.400	1.61%

Result: FIP 4.73 → 6.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristian Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.71	22.1%	10.2%	140	-0.56	—	—	—
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	88
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	86
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	86
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	85
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	84
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	84
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	83
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	83
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	83
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	83
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	82
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	82
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	81
Juan Mota R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	21	SP-	4.28	18.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.309	5.10	17.5%	5.8%	111	+0.82	3.89	279	81
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	45	22.1%	12.0%	1.13	4.80
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44