Cristian Hernandez

Cristian Hernandez P FCL Twins

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%22.5%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%5.3%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	7	30	174	32	35	2	64%	2.7	12.5%	25.1%	-12.6%	1.6%	11.53	6.11	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	7	30	174	32	35	2	64%	2.7	12.5%	25.1%	-12.6%	1.6%	11.53	6.11	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	7	30	174	32	35	2	64%	2.7	18.4%	20.1%	-1.7%	1.1%	11.53	5.36	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	7	6	25	107	37	17	1	86%	3.5	23.5%	19.9%	3.7%	1.4%	4.01	4.39	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	7	6	25	107	37	17	1	86%	3.5	23.5%	19.9%	3.7%	1.4%	4.01	4.39	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	7	6	25	107	37	17	1	86%	3.5	34.6%	15.9%	18.7%	0.9%	4.01	2.69	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	17	9	62	287	75	36	7	53%	3.6	18.1%	15.5%	2.6%	3.4%	5.81	5.41	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	17	9	62	287	75	36	7	53%	3.6	18.1%	15.5%	2.6%	3.4%	5.81	5.41	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	MIN	12	4	47	219	58	29	7	33%	3.9	26.5%	13.2%	13.2%	3.2%	6.08	4.30	—
2026	21	A RAW	MIN	5	5	15	68	17	7	0	100%	2.9	25.0%	10.3%	14.7%	0.0%	4.91	2.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	64	269	63	39	8	100%	5.8	23.5%	14.5%	8.9%	2.9%	5.07	4.94	-0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	66	279	67	36	8	100%	6.0	24.2%	12.8%	11.4%	2.9%	4.79	4.64	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	68	286	71	33	8	100%	6.2	24.7%	11.7%	13.0%	2.8%	4.57	4.44	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	69	290	72	32	8	100%	5.7	25.0%	10.9%	14.1%	2.8%	4.41	4.31	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	69	290	73	32	8	100%	6.2	25.2%	10.9%	14.4%	2.8%	4.33	4.28	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	68	285	72	31	8	100%	6.1	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.32	+0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	66	277	70	31	8	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	3.0%	4.38	4.41	+0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	63	264	66	30	8	100%	6.3	24.9%	11.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.47	4.54	+0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	31	131	31	19	4	100%	6.2	23.5%	14.5%	8.9%	2.9%	5.08	4.95	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	48	203	49	26	6	100%	6.0	24.2%	12.8%	11.4%	2.9%	4.80	4.65	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	56	236	58	28	7	100%	6.2	24.7%	11.7%	13.0%	2.9%	4.58	4.45	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	61	258	64	28	7	100%	6.1	25.0%	10.9%	14.1%	2.8%	4.42	4.32	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	63	266	67	29	8	100%	6.3	25.2%	10.9%	14.4%	2.8%	4.34	4.29	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	63	266	67	29	8	100%	6.3	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	2.9%	4.34	4.33	+0.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	61	258	65	29	8	100%	6.1	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	3.0%	4.39	4.42	+0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	59	249	62	28	8	100%	5.9	24.9%	11.3%	13.5%	3.2%	4.48	4.55	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	442	1868	464	216	55	100%	6.0	24.8%	11.6%	13.3%	2.9%	4.51	4.07	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	210	98	25	100%	6.0	24.8%	11.6%	13.3%	2.9%	4.51	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		35	22	116	568	99	110	14	63%	3.3	17.4%	19.3%	-1.9%	2.5%	6.89	5.43	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	38	200	977	170	188	24	63%	3.3	17.4%	19.3%	-1.9%	2.5%	6.89	5.43	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristian Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	22.5%	17.1%	3.0%	—	4.67	24.1%	11.1%	198	-0.71	—	—	—
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	85
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	84
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	83
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	81
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	81
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	80
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	79
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	77
Alix Hernandez R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	21.7%	15.6%	2.8%	.254	4.91	22.5%	10.2%	119	+0.11	3.55	170	77
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	77
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	77
Joseph Hernandez R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	21	SW	4.39	24.7%	16.7%	2.3%	.348	4.92	18.1%	4.0%	190	+0.53	4.39	260	76
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	76
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	76
Juan Mota R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	21	SP-	4.28	18.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.309	5.10	17.5%	5.8%	111	+0.82	3.89	279	76
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	76
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	448	76
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	61	24.7%	11.9%	1.13	4.56
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33