Carlos Lagrange

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 24 RHP 6'7" / 248 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#155ETA2028MLB%14%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	9	8	21	6.86	4.00	27.0%	20.0%	—	K 20.4% · BB 22.2% · FIP 4.20
2025	22	MIX2 levels	24	23	120	3.52	2.72	33.4%	12.3%	—	K 26.5% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.66
2026	23	AAAScranton/Wilk…	19	11	64	4.48	4.02	29.8%	11.6%	—	K 25.6% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.37
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYY	2	2	13	4.45	4.45	27.9%	13.0%	0.1
2028PROJ50% MLB	25	MLBNYY	9	9	55	4.47	4.42	27.7%	11.8%	0.7
2029PROJ70% MLB	26	MLBNYY	13	13	79	4.42	4.40	27.5%	11.5%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.4 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 15, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 68%

CompsSam Benschoter (age 24) · Kyle Bradish (age 24) · Jackson Baumeister (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%27.9%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%14.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$32M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$6M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$26M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	11	10	33	130	43	19	1	91%	3.0	22.5%	18.3%	4.2%	0.9%	3.00	4.01	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	11	10	33	130	43	19	1	91%	3.0	33.1%	14.6%	18.5%	0.8%	3.00	2.62	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	12	11	42	194	63	24	4	92%	3.5	22.1%	15.5%	6.6%	2.1%	4.97	4.34	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	12	11	42	194	63	24	4	92%	3.5	32.5%	12.4%	20.1%	2.1%	4.97	3.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	21	100	27	20	1	89%	2.3	20.4%	22.2%	-1.9%	0.0%	6.86	4.20	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	21	100	27	20	1	89%	2.3	20.4%	22.2%	-1.9%	0.0%	6.86	4.20	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	8	21	100	27	20	1	89%	2.3	27.0%	20.0%	7.0%	1.0%	6.86	4.00	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	120	503	168	62	8	96%	5.0	26.5%	13.7%	12.9%	2.0%	3.52	3.66	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	120	503	168	62	8	96%	5.0	26.5%	13.7%	12.9%	2.0%	3.52	3.66	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	120	503	168	62	8	96%	5.0	33.4%	12.3%	21.1%	1.6%	3.52	2.72	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	19	11	64	285	85	33	10	58%	3.4	25.6%	10.4%	15.2%	3.9%	4.48	4.37	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	19	11	64	285	85	33	10	58%	3.4	25.6%	10.4%	15.2%	3.9%	4.48	4.37	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	19	11	64	285	85	33	10	58%	3.4	29.8%	11.6%	18.2%	3.5%	4.48	4.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYY	2	2	13	55	15	7	2	100%	6.5	27.9%	13.0%	14.9%	3.1%	4.45	4.45	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	108	458	127	54	14	100%	5.7	27.7%	11.8%	15.9%	3.0%	4.36	4.31	+1.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	112	474	130	54	14	100%	5.9	27.5%	11.5%	16.0%	3.0%	4.31	4.29	+1.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	108	457	124	52	14	100%	6.0	27.2%	11.4%	15.8%	3.1%	4.31	4.32	+1.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	103	435	117	50	14	100%	6.1	26.9%	11.4%	15.5%	3.2%	4.37	4.40	+1.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	96	407	109	47	14	100%	6.0	26.7%	11.7%	15.0%	3.3%	4.47	4.54	+1.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	88	370	97	44	13	100%	5.8	26.4%	12.0%	14.4%	3.5%	4.62	4.71	+0.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	78	330	86	41	12	100%	6.0	25.9%	12.3%	13.6%	3.8%	4.80	4.92	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	68	289	74	37	12	100%	6.2	25.5%	12.7%	12.8%	4.0%	5.00	5.14	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	55	232	64	27	8	100%	6.1	27.7%	11.8%	15.9%	3.3%	4.47	4.42	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	79	334	92	38	11	100%	6.1	27.5%	11.5%	16.0%	3.2%	4.42	4.40	+1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	86	363	99	41	12	100%	6.1	27.2%	11.4%	15.8%	3.3%	4.42	4.43	+1.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	88	372	100	43	13	100%	5.9	26.9%	11.4%	15.5%	3.4%	4.49	4.52	+1.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	85	359	96	42	13	100%	6.1	26.7%	11.7%	15.0%	3.6%	4.59	4.66	+0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	79	334	88	40	13	100%	6.1	26.4%	12.0%	14.4%	3.8%	4.75	4.84	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	72	304	79	37	12	100%	6.0	25.9%	12.3%	13.6%	4.0%	4.94	5.06	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	64	270	69	34	12	100%	5.8	25.5%	12.7%	12.8%	4.3%	5.15	5.29	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	609	2571	687	304	92	100%	6.0	26.7%	11.8%	14.9%	3.6%	4.64	4.31	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	226	100	30	100%	6.0	26.7%	11.8%	14.9%	3.6%	4.64	4.31	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		75	63	280	1212	299	174	26	84%	3.7	24.7%	14.4%	10.3%	2.1%	4.15	4.02	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	45	200	866	214	125	19	84%	3.7	24.7%	14.4%	10.3%	2.1%	4.15	4.02	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 64 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.37 (+0.40)K% 29.8% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.82%	—	×0.860	25.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.58%	—	×0.900	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.51%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.86%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 78 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.82 (+0.80)K% 31.0% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.04%	—	×0.810	25.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.93%	—	×1.100	16.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷1.030	×1.200	1.39%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 42 IPFIP 2.09 → 3.35 (+1.26)K% 38.1% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.10%	—	×0.770	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.150	8.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷0.969	×1.250	3.07%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 14 IPFIP 3.16 → 4.20 (+1.03)K% 27.5% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.54%	—	×0.740	20.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.84%	—	×1.180	22.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.979	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.16 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Yankees · 7 IPFIP 5.55 → 7.36 (+1.81)K% 25.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.81%	—	×0.680	17.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.58%	—	×1.250	28.23%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.142	×1.400	3.96%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 5.55 → 7.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Yankees · 42 IPFIP 3.06 → 4.34 (+1.28)K% 32.5% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.47%	—	×0.680	22.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.37%	—	×1.250	15.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.383	×1.400	2.09%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL NYY Yankees · 33 IPFIP 2.58 → 4.01 (+1.43)K% 33.1% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.08%	—	×0.680	22.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.62%	—	×1.250	18.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.77%	÷1.195	×1.400	0.90%

Result: FIP 2.58 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Lagrange (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.31	27.5%	15.9%	329	-0.14	—	—	—
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	82
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	82
Jackson Baumeister R 2024 · 3.32 FIP	22	SP	3.32	25.2%	13.4%	1.2%	.270	5.44	18.9%	6.2%	166	+2.12	3.32	265	79
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	78
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	77
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	77
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	77
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	77
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	77
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	76
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	76
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	76
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.53	25.0%	17.4%	216	-0.14	2.28	474	75
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	75
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	75
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	75
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	75
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	74
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	74
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	95	26.9%	11.9%	1.28	4.49
Juan Berenguer ('78-'92, 9 WAR*)	6.0	100	26.4%*	11.6%*	1.13*	4.14*
Calvin Schiraldi ('84-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.8	92	25.3%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.71*
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Michael Kopech ('25)	2.1	103	25.8%	12.5%	1.45	4.14