Carlos Lagrange
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
+1.4
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'7" / 248 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 2.3 · 2029
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.9%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%12.4%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.3peak
2029
OFP—50
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | 11 | 10 | 33 | 130 | 43 | 19 | 1 | 22.5% | 18.3% | 0.8% | 3.00 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 12 | 11 | 42 | 194 | 63 | 24 | 4 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 4.97 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 9 | 8 | 21 | 100 | 27 | 20 | 1 | 20.4% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 6.86 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 24 | 23 | 120 | 503 | 168 | 62 | 8 | 26.5% | 13.7% | 2.0% | 3.52 | 3.66 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 3 | 3 | 11 | 47 | 13 | 9 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 126 | 63 | 13 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 131 | 554 | 139 | 72 | 15 | 25.1% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 3.99 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 25 | 139 | 587 | 148 | 65 | 15 | 25.1% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 4.17 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 28 | 28 | 153 | 645 | 163 | 67 | 17 | 25.3% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.06 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 29 | 29 | 160 | 674 | 171 | 68 | 17 | 25.3% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.05 | +2.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 30 | 30 | 162 | 686 | 173 | 69 | 18 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.07 | 4.06 | +2.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 29 | 29 | 162 | 684 | 173 | 70 | 18 | 25.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.09 | +2.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 29 | 29 | 158 | 669 | 168 | 68 | 18 | 25.1% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.13 | +2.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 28 | 28 | 154 | 649 | 162 | 67 | 18 | 24.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.20 | +1.9 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 154 | 65 | 18 | 24.7% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +1.7 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 147 | 64 | 17 | 24.4% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +1.5 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 138 | 62 | 17 | 24.1% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 23 | 23 | 129 | 546 | 129 | 60 | 17 | 23.7% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.56 | +1.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 120 | 58 | 16 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +0.8 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 110 | 55 | 16 | 22.9% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 55 | 226 | 974 | 239 | 154 | 16 | 24.5% | 15.8% | 1.7% | 4.02 | 3.95 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 49 | 200 | 861 | 211 | 136 | 14 | 24.5% | 15.8% | 1.7% | 4.02 | 3.95 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Lagrange (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 2.5% | — | 4.09 | 25.3% | 14.7% | 451 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Brody Hopkins R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 1.9% | .275 | 5.49 | 23.1% | 0.8% | 18 | +1.63 | 3.46 | 249 | 87 |
| Roman Angelo R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 86 |
| Tyler Guilfoil R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.17 | 26.0% | 12.3% | 1.3% | .305 | 5.51 | 17.8% | 4.4% | 190 | +2.34 | 3.17 | 274 | 85 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.35 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.13 | 2.01 | 352 | 85 |
| Nick Nastrini R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.05 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .288 | 6.14 | 19.4% | 1.6% | 168 | +2.09 | 4.05 | 412 | 85 |
| Ty Madden R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.53 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .304 | 5.21 | 23.0% | 13.2% | 134 | +0.68 | 4.53 | 375 | 85 |
| Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.40 | 23.0% | 12.1% | 1.3% | .286 | 4.14 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 219 | +0.74 | 3.40 | 428 | 83 |
| Chase Silseth R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.80 | 24.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 5.03 | 17.5% | 2.8% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.46 | 277 | 83 |
| David Festa R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.70 | 24.6% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .341 | 3.76 | 27.5% | 18.8% | 209 | +0.06 | 3.66 | 405 | 83 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.7% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.92 | 119 | 83 |
| Austin Hansen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.81 | 25.1% | 15.0% | 1.7% | .230 | 7.80 | 19.8% | -0.3% | 26 | +3.99 | 3.81 | 204 | 83 |
| Trey Yesavage R 2025 · 3.14 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.14 | 31.5% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 112 | 82 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .326 | 3.92 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 38 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 139 | 82 |
| Vince Velasquez R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.18 | 26.2% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .290 | 3.84 | 25.5% | 16.5% | 350 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 891 | 82 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 25.5% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .284 | 4.96 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 240 | +0.63 | 3.93 | 476 | 82 |
| Riley Gowens R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 81 |
| Chase Hampton R 2024 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 107 | 81 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.55 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.05 | 3.55 | 205 | 81 |
| Corey Black R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .310 | 3.55 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 53 | -0.63 | 3.55 | 139 | 81 |
| Gavin Williams R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.44 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .238 | 3.84 | 25.1% | 14.1% | 398 | +0.40 | 3.44 | 536 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2033
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.8 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.1 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.3 | $20M | +$19M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $5M | +2.3 | $21M | +$16M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $8M | +2.2 | $20M | +$13M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +2.1 | $20M | +$9M |
| Totals | $26M | $114M | +$88M | ||