Carlos Lagrange
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 23
RHP
6'7" / 248 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.5 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 75 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%27.9%
BB%15.0%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP75
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | 11 | 10 | 33 | 130 | 43 | 19 | 1 | 91% | 3.0 | 22.5% | 18.3% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 3.00 | 3.94 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | 11 | 10 | 33 | 130 | 43 | 19 | 1 | 91% | 3.0 | 33.1% | 14.6% | 18.5% | 0.8% | 3.00 | 2.62 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 12 | 11 | 42 | 194 | 63 | 24 | 4 | 92% | 3.5 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 6.6% | 1.6% | 4.97 | 4.09 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 12 | 11 | 42 | 194 | 63 | 24 | 4 | 92% | 3.5 | 32.5% | 12.4% | 20.1% | 2.1% | 4.97 | 3.05 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 8 | 21 | 100 | 27 | 20 | 1 | 89% | 2.3 | 20.4% | 22.2% | -1.9% | 0.0% | 6.86 | 4.20 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 8 | 21 | 100 | 27 | 20 | 1 | 89% | 2.3 | 27.0% | 20.0% | 7.0% | 1.0% | 6.86 | 4.00 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 120 | 503 | 168 | 62 | 8 | 96% | 5.0 | 26.5% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 2.0% | 3.52 | 3.67 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 120 | 503 | 168 | 62 | 8 | 96% | 5.0 | 33.4% | 12.3% | 21.1% | 1.6% | 3.52 | 2.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 18 | 11 | 63 | 281 | 83 | 33 | 10 | 61% | 3.5 | 26.0% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 4.55 | 4.62 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 75 | 315 | 88 | 47 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.9% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYY | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 27.9% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 138 | 596 | 171 | 80 | 18 | — | — | 28.7% | 13.4% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 7 | 32 | 9 | 5 | 1 | — | — | 27.9% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.08 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 23 | 23 | 131 | 551 | 154 | 73 | 14 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.9% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 4.28 | 4.20 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 26 | 150 | 634 | 176 | 77 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.8% | 12.1% | 15.7% | 2.6% | 4.16 | 4.07 | +2.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 27 | 27 | 162 | 685 | 190 | 81 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.7% | 11.8% | 15.9% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.06 | +2.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 27 | 27 | 160 | 675 | 186 | 80 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.6% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 180 | 78 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.4% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.19 | +2.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 170 | 76 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.2% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.32 | +1.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 23 | 23 | 139 | 587 | 158 | 73 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.9% | 12.5% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.49 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 130 | 548 | 145 | 70 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.5% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.69 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 132 | 67 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.0% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.92 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 74 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.9% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 104 | 439 | 122 | 53 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.8% | 12.1% | 15.7% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.12 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 153 | 65 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.7% | 11.8% | 15.9% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.11 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 23 | 23 | 138 | 583 | 161 | 69 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.6% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 23 | 23 | 139 | 587 | 161 | 70 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.4% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 155 | 69 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.2% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.38 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 146 | 68 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.9% | 12.5% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.55 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 135 | 66 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.5% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.76 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 125 | 64 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.0% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 4.85 | 4.99 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 181 | 181 | 1081 | 4565 | 1241 | 564 | 137 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.2% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.02 | +17.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 230 | 104 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.2% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 74 | 63 | 279 | 1208 | 299 | 179 | 25 | 85% | 3.8 | 24.8% | 14.9% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 4.16 | 4.03 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 45 | 200 | 866 | 214 | 129 | 18 | 85% | 3.8 | 24.8% | 14.9% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 4.16 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Lagrange (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 27.9% | 15.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.10 | 27.8% | 15.5% | 443 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Austin Hansen R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.0% | 1.7% | .230 | 8.02 | 19.8% | -0.3% | 26 | +4.18 | 3.84 | 204 | 80 |
| David Festa R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.55 | 24.6% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.71 | 27.5% | 18.8% | 209 | +0.16 | 3.55 | 405 | 80 |
| Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.61 | 23.0% | 12.1% | 1.7% | .286 | 4.18 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 219 | +0.57 | 3.61 | 428 | 80 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 80 |
| Chase Silseth R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.91 | 24.4% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .264 | 4.53 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 103 | +0.62 | 3.26 | 313 | 78 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 6.03 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.83 | 2.73 | 357 | 78 |
| Brody Hopkins R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 2.0% | .275 | 4.71 | 23.4% | 0.9% | 72 | +0.76 | 3.49 | 303 | 78 |
| Aidan Foeller R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.74 | 22.7% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.45 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 50 | -0.29 | 4.45 | 149 | 77 |
| Aidan Curry R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 23.3% | 13.8% | 2.4% | .307 | 4.64 | 25.0% | 12.6% | 68 | +0.46 | 3.29 | 379 | 77 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.9% | .309 | 3.76 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 238 | -0.91 | 2.15 | 702 | 77 |
| Ty Madden R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.42 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 3.5% | .304 | 5.61 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 179 | +1.19 | 4.42 | 420 | 77 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.40 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.17 | 3.40 | 233 | 77 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 76 |
| Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 22.2% | 13.7% | 2.5% | .298 | 4.84 | 29.1% | 10.7% | 68 | +0.50 | 2.64 | 281 | 76 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.67 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.8% | .326 | 4.43 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 112 | +0.76 | 3.67 | 213 | 76 |
| Brendan Girton R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.37 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 0.9% | .264 | 6.62 | 16.5% | -1.1% | 63 | +3.25 | 3.37 | 150 | 76 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 75 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.89 | 26.6% | 21.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.86 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 231 | -0.03 | 3.93 | 323 | 75 |
| Jacob Odle R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 104 | 75 |
| James Proctor R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.35 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.33 | 4.02 | 109 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 140 | 27.3% | 12.5% | 1.10 | 4.30 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Mike Clevinger ('23) | 7 | 113 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 1.07 | 3.45 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |