Carlos Lagrange — OGILVIE

Carlos Lagrange P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 23 RHP 6'7" / 248 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%27.9%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL4045

CMD3545

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+1.4	$9M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$9M	+1.4	$8M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$12M	+1.2	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$16M		$34M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	11	10	33	130	43	19	1	91%	3.0	22.5%	18.3%	4.2%	0.9%	3.00	4.01	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	11	10	33	130	43	19	1	91%	3.0	33.1%	14.6%	18.5%	0.8%	3.00	2.62	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	12	11	42	194	63	24	4	92%	3.5	22.1%	15.5%	6.6%	2.1%	4.97	4.34	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	12	11	42	194	63	24	4	92%	3.5	22.1%	15.5%	6.6%	2.1%	4.97	4.34	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	12	11	42	194	63	24	4	92%	3.5	32.5%	12.4%	20.1%	2.1%	4.97	3.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	21	100	27	20	1	89%	2.3	20.4%	22.2%	-1.9%	0.0%	6.86	4.20	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	21	100	27	20	1	89%	2.3	20.4%	22.2%	-1.9%	0.0%	6.86	4.20	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	8	21	100	27	20	1	89%	2.3	27.0%	20.0%	7.0%	1.0%	6.86	4.00	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	120	503	168	62	8	96%	5.0	26.5%	13.7%	12.9%	2.0%	3.52	3.66	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	120	503	168	62	8	96%	5.0	26.5%	13.7%	12.9%	2.0%	3.52	3.66	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	120	503	168	62	8	96%	5.0	33.4%	12.3%	21.1%	1.6%	3.52	2.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	18	11	63	281	83	33	10	61%	3.5	24.5%	10.6%	13.9%	3.9%	4.55	4.52	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	18	11	63	281	83	33	10	61%	3.5	24.5%	10.6%	13.9%	3.9%	4.55	4.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	NYY	18	11	63	281	83	33	10	61%	3.5	29.5%	11.7%	17.8%	3.6%	4.55	4.05	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	NYY	2	2	9	39	11	6	1	100%	4.6	27.9%	14.8%	13.0%	2.5%	4.40	4.40	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	73	320	94	39	11	—	—	29.3%	12.1%	17.2%	3.4%	4.53	4.50	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	24	24	137	577	161	76	15	100%	5.7	27.9%	13.1%	14.8%	2.5%	4.26	4.18	+1.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	27	27	156	660	184	79	17	100%	5.8	27.8%	12.0%	15.8%	2.6%	4.14	4.06	+1.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	28	28	168	711	197	84	18	100%	6.0	27.7%	11.8%	16.0%	2.6%	4.09	4.05	+1.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	28	28	166	700	193	82	19	100%	5.9	27.6%	11.7%	15.9%	2.6%	4.09	4.09	+1.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	27	27	161	679	187	81	19	100%	6.0	27.5%	11.9%	15.6%	2.8%	4.14	4.17	+1.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	26	26	154	649	177	79	19	100%	5.9	27.2%	12.1%	15.1%	2.9%	4.24	4.31	+1.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	24	24	144	610	164	76	19	100%	6.0	26.9%	12.4%	14.5%	3.1%	4.39	4.48	+0.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	135	569	151	73	19	100%	6.1	26.5%	12.8%	13.7%	3.3%	4.57	4.68	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	125	526	137	69	19	100%	5.9	26.0%	13.2%	12.9%	3.6%	4.77	4.91	-0.0
2036	33	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	114	483	123	66	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	13.6%	11.9%	3.9%	5.00	5.16	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	66	279	78	37	8	100%	5.5	27.9%	13.1%	14.8%	2.7%	4.35	4.27	+0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	108	456	127	55	13	100%	6.0	27.8%	12.0%	15.8%	2.7%	4.24	4.16	+1.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	23	23	136	574	159	67	16	100%	5.9	27.7%	11.8%	16.0%	2.8%	4.19	4.15	+1.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	24	24	143	604	167	71	17	100%	6.0	27.6%	11.7%	15.9%	2.8%	4.19	4.19	+1.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	24	24	144	608	167	72	18	100%	6.0	27.5%	11.9%	15.6%	2.9%	4.24	4.27	+1.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	23	23	140	591	161	72	18	100%	6.1	27.2%	12.1%	15.1%	3.1%	4.35	4.42	+1.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	22	22	134	566	152	70	19	100%	6.1	26.9%	12.4%	14.5%	3.3%	4.50	4.59	+0.7
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYY	21	21	126	532	141	68	19	100%	6.0	26.5%	12.8%	13.7%	3.5%	4.69	4.80	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	NYY	20	20	118	498	130	66	19	100%	5.9	26.0%	13.2%	12.9%	3.8%	4.90	5.04	-0.0
2036	33	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	109	460	117	63	19	100%	6.1	25.5%	13.6%	11.9%	4.1%	5.14	5.30	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		205	205	1225	5173	1400	640	165	100%	6.0	27.1%	12.4%	14.7%	3.2%	4.47	4.13	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	229	104	27	100%	6.0	27.1%	12.4%	14.7%	3.2%	4.47	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		74	63	279	1208	295	174	26	85%	3.8	24.4%	14.4%	10.0%	2.2%	4.16	4.05	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	45	200	866	211	125	19	85%	3.8	24.4%	14.4%	10.0%	2.2%	4.16	4.05	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Lagrange (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	27.9%	14.8%	2.5%	—	4.09	27.8%	15.6%	462	-0.31	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	93
Austin Hansen R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	7.74	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+3.93	3.81	204	80
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	79
Ryan Bergert R 2023 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	23.0%	12.1%	1.4%	.286	4.13	19.2%	10.0%	219	+0.69	3.44	428	79
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	78
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.40	19.9%	9.8%	353	-0.44	3.95	469	77
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	77
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	77
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	77
Hayden Birdsong R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	26.7%	11.9%	1.7%	.320	4.77	24.4%	11.6%	225	+1.48	3.29	326	76
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.24	20.6%	8.1%	122	+0.44	3.30	332	76
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	76
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	76
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	76
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	76
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	75
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	75
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.81	22.5%	9.1%	231	-0.01	3.75	326	75
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	75
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.8	142	27.2%	12.5%	1.13	4.34
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88