Adrian Heredia
P
Delmarva Shorebirds
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%22.3%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 11 | 44 | 176 | 56 | 18 | 2 | 100% | 4.0 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 8.9% | 1.6% | 1.83 | 3.78 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 11 | 44 | 176 | 56 | 18 | 2 | 100% | 4.0 | 31.8% | 10.2% | 21.6% | 1.1% | 1.83 | 2.38 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 8 | 46 | 203 | 50 | 17 | 1 | 62% | 3.6 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 0.8% | 4.47 | 3.39 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 8 | 46 | 203 | 50 | 17 | 1 | 62% | 3.6 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 16.3% | 0.5% | 4.47 | 2.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 20 | 0 | 34 | 168 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.7 | 13.7% | 16.2% | -2.5% | 6.2% | 6.29 | 7.39 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | BAL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.36 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 62 | 283 | 57 | 34 | 11 | — | — | 20.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 5.44 | 6.05 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 27 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 28 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 3.80 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 71 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 3.80 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 44 | 19 | 125 | 547 | 96 | 70 | 15 | 43% | 2.8 | 17.5% | 12.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.74 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 30 | 200 | 875 | 153 | 113 | 24 | 43% | 2.8 | 17.5% | 12.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Heredia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 22.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.18 | 23.3% | 14.4% | 29 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 84 |
| Inohan Paniagua R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.78 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .298 | 4.27 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 297 | +0.49 | 3.78 | 473 | 84 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 84 |
| Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 84 |
| Cole Stapler R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.83 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.29 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 220 | -0.54 | 3.28 | 255 | 83 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 83 |
| Clark Beeker R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 82 |
| Franco Aleman R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.93 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .391 | 3.00 | 29.2% | 18.4% | 114 | -0.93 | 0.86 | 198 | 82 |
| Austin Hutchison R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.05 | 19.7% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .340 | 5.20 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 213 | +1.15 | 3.60 | 235 | 81 |
| Daniel Bies R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.96 | 24.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .339 | 3.22 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.22 | 115 | 81 |
| Breidy Encarnación R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.48 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .222 | 3.47 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 67 | -0.01 | 3.10 | 164 | 81 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.49 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.35 | 4.09 | 196 | 81 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 81 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 81 |
| Carson Rudd R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 80 |
| Huei-Sheng Lin R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.59 | 17.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .360 | 5.41 | 16.1% | 3.7% | 88 | +0.82 | 4.59 | 120 | 80 |
| Ben Anderson R 2028 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.05 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.93 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -1.12 | 3.71 | 361 | 80 |
| Joey Matulovich R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.22 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 1.0% | .317 | 5.29 | 21.3% | 8.1% | 107 | +2.07 | 3.22 | 201 | 80 |
| Jake Elliott R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.82 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .353 | 3.81 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 202 | -0.01 | 3.10 | 354 | 79 |
| David Perez R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.93 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .292 | 5.13 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.20 | 3.93 | 151 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |