Adrian Heredia — OGILVIE

Adrian Heredia P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%20.1%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	44	176	56	18	2	100%	4.0	21.6%	12.8%	8.9%	1.6%	1.83	3.77	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	44	176	56	18	2	100%	4.0	21.6%	12.8%	8.9%	1.6%	1.83	3.77	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	44	176	56	18	2	100%	4.0	31.8%	10.2%	21.6%	1.1%	1.83	2.38	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	8	46	203	50	17	1	62%	3.6	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.7%	4.47	3.34	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	8	46	203	50	17	1	62%	3.6	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.7%	4.47	3.34	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	8	46	203	50	17	1	62%	3.6	24.6%	8.4%	16.3%	0.5%	4.47	2.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	31	0	58	278	49	36	12	0%	1.9	13.0%	15.3%	-2.2%	5.6%	5.90	7.01	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	31	0	58	278	49	36	12	0%	1.9	13.0%	15.3%	-2.2%	5.6%	5.90	7.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	BAL	31	0	58	278	49	36	12	0%	1.9	17.6%	12.9%	4.7%	4.3%	5.90	5.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BAL	57	0	60	252	54	25	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	2.8%	4.53	4.45	+0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	59	0	62	261	58	24	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.28	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	60	0	63	267	61	24	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	2.7%	4.26	4.18	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	61	0	64	271	63	24	7	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.7%	14.6%	2.7%	4.17	4.11	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	61	0	64	271	64	23	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.7%	14.8%	2.7%	4.12	4.09	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	60	0	63	266	63	23	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.7%	14.8%	2.8%	4.13	4.13	+0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	BAL	28	0	29	122	26	12	3	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	2.8%	4.53	4.45	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	43	0	45	190	42	18	5	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.28	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	50	0	52	220	50	20	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	2.7%	4.26	4.18	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	54	0	57	241	56	21	7	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.7%	14.6%	2.7%	4.17	4.11	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	56	0	59	249	59	22	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.7%	14.8%	2.7%	4.12	4.09	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	56	0	59	249	58	22	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.7%	14.8%	2.8%	4.13	4.13	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		286	0	300	1268	291	113	35	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.9%	14.0%	2.8%	4.23	3.80	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	75	23	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.9%	14.0%	2.8%	4.23	3.80	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		55	19	149	657	109	86	20	35%	2.7	16.6%	13.1%	3.6%	3.0%	4.24	5.01	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	26	200	884	147	115	27	35%	2.7	16.6%	13.1%	3.6%	3.0%	4.24	5.01	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Heredia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	20.1%	10.8%	2.8%	—	4.30	22.2%	12.9%	185	-0.40	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	87
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	87
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	84
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	84
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	83
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	83
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	83
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	82
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	82
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	82
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	82
Luis F. Castillo R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	21	SU	4.51	16.7%	10.5%	2.7%	.337	3.50	19.7%	12.3%	96	-1.01	2.95	254	82
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	82
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	81
Davis Martin R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SW	3.59	16.3%	8.2%	1.5%	.317	4.71	18.9%	10.7%	233	+1.12	3.56	738	81
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	81
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	81
Inohan Paniagua R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	21	SW	3.68	23.3%	10.8%	2.1%	.298	4.28	18.8%	8.2%	297	+0.60	3.68	473	81
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	81
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	58	22.6%	9.1%	1.07	4.29
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04