Adrian Heredia
P
Delmarva Shorebirds
+0.3
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2029
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.8%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 11 | 44 | 176 | 56 | 18 | 2 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 1.6% | 1.83 | 3.78 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 13 | 8 | 46 | 203 | 50 | 17 | 1 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 4.47 | 3.35 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 3 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | BAL | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 22.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 46 | 194 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 22.0% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 3.69 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 43 | 15 | 5 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.92 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.91 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 25.1% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 42 | 14 | 5 | 24.8% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 19 | 98 | 409 | 79 | 45 | 5 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 1.3% | 3.13 | 3.59 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 39 | 200 | 838 | 162 | 92 | 10 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 1.3% | 3.13 | 3.59 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Heredia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 22.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.06 | 24.0% | 15.4% | 126 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 93 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 93 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.40 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .275 | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.22 | 4.40 | 140 | 93 |
| Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 90 |
| Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 90 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 90 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 90 |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 90 |
| Michael Gomez R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 89 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.89 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 3.18 | 144 | 89 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.68 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.32 | 2.89 | 119 | 89 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 88 |
| Gerlin Rosario R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.79 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .294 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 111 | +0.23 | 2.94 | 206 | 88 |
| Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 88 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2027 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.54 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.27 | 3.27 | 128 | 88 |
| Chris Gau R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.18 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.58 | 2.98 | 211 | 88 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.37 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .350 | 4.28 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.91 | 2.93 | 103 | 87 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.49 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.03 | 3.09 | 213 | 87 |
| Tyler Bray R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 87 |
| Chad Patrick R 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$7M | ||