Adrian Heredia

P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Orioles O…	11	11	44	1.83	2.38	31.8%	10.2%	—	K 21.6% · BB 12.8% · FIP 3.77
2025	20	MIX2 levels	13	8	46	4.47	2.32	24.6%	8.4%	—	K 17.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.34
2026	21	ABAL	31	0	58	5.90	5.96	17.6%	12.9%	—	K 13.0% · BB 15.3% · FIP 7.01
2027PROJ	22	MLBBAL	—	—	0	5.58	5.58	16.5%	13.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBBAL	19	0	20	5.28	5.17	18.6%	11.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBBAL	27	0	28	5.03	4.91	19.9%	10.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsYunior Montero (age 22) · Josh White (age 22) · Justin Ferrell (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%16.5%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%3.1%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	44	176	56	18	2	100%	4.0	21.6%	12.8%	8.9%	1.6%	1.83	3.77	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	44	176	56	18	2	100%	4.0	21.6%	12.8%	8.9%	1.6%	1.83	3.77	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	44	176	56	18	2	100%	4.0	31.8%	10.2%	21.6%	1.1%	1.83	2.38	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	8	46	203	50	17	1	62%	3.6	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.7%	4.47	3.34	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	8	46	203	50	17	1	62%	3.6	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.7%	4.47	3.34	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	8	46	203	50	17	1	62%	3.6	24.6%	8.4%	16.3%	0.5%	4.47	2.32	—
2026	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	31	0	58	278	49	36	12	0%	1.9	13.0%	15.3%	-2.2%	5.6%	5.90	7.01	—
2026	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	31	0	58	278	49	36	12	0%	1.9	13.0%	15.3%	-2.2%	5.6%	5.90	7.01	—
2026	21	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	31	0	58	278	49	36	12	0%	1.9	17.6%	12.9%	4.7%	4.3%	5.90	5.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.5%	13.4%	3.1%	3.3%	5.58	5.58	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	38	0	40	169	31	20	5	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.8%	6.7%	3.2%	5.28	5.17	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	38	0	40	169	34	18	5	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.2%	5.03	4.91	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	19	0	20	84	16	10	3	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.8%	6.7%	3.2%	5.28	5.17	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	27	0	28	118	23	13	4	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.2%	5.03	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	48	201	39	23	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	11.3%	8.1%	3.2%	5.13	4.64	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	97	25	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.3%	8.1%	3.2%	5.13	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		55	19	149	657	109	86	20	35%	2.7	16.6%	13.1%	3.6%	3.0%	4.24	5.01	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	26	200	884	147	115	27	35%	2.7	16.6%	13.1%	3.6%	3.0%	4.24	5.01	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 58 IPFIP 5.62 → 7.01 (+1.39)K% 17.6% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.63%	—	×0.740	13.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.95%	—	×1.180	15.28%
HR / BF /BF	4.32%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.61%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.62 → 7.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 32 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.86 (+0.99)K% 27.1% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.07%	—	×0.680	18.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.27%	—	×1.250	10.34%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 14 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.27 (+0.98)K% 20.0% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.740	14.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×1.180	10.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷0.899	×1.300	2.07%

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Orioles Orange · 44 IPFIP 2.33 → 3.77 (+1.44)K% 31.8% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.680	21.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.23%	—	×1.250	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷0.992	×1.400	1.60%

Result: FIP 2.33 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Heredia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	16.5%	13.4%	3.3%	—	5.04	19.2%	7.9%	80	-0.54	—	—	—
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	91
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	87
Justin Ferrell R 2016 · 5.30 FIP	22	SW	5.30	14.9%	14.0%	3.1%	.261	4.34	20.4%	9.1%	173	-0.96	3.83	300	86
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	85
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	85
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	84
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	84
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	83
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	83
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	83
Junior Cerda R 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	16.9%	13.6%	3.8%	.277	4.56	19.3%	2.0%	68	-0.92	2.76	135	83
Kelvin Vasquez R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	14.8%	13.8%	2.6%	.248	5.38	15.0%	-3.0%	103	+0.35	5.01	180	83
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	82
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	82
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	82
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	81
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	81
Victor Espiritu R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	14.6%	12.7%	1.8%	.294	4.04	13.5%	1.8%	60	-0.41	3.49	101	81
Alejandro Melean R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	22	SW	5.10	17.9%	13.3%	3.3%	.302	6.04	10.4%	-2.3%	18	+0.94	4.77	258	81
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	39	18.3%	12.0%	1.24	5.29
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68