Jack Carey
P
Akron RubberDucks
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.87
FIP4.87
K%19.7%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%8.6%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 5.06 | 2.33 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 5.06 | 2.35 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 33 | 4 | 61 | 284 | 62 | 27 | 9 | 12% | 1.8 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 5.75 | 4.47 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 33 | 4 | 61 | 284 | 62 | 27 | 9 | 12% | 1.8 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 5.75 | 4.31 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 2 | 53 | 230 | 63 | 23 | 5 | 5% | 1.3 | 20.8% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 1.6% | 4.44 | 3.71 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 2 | 53 | 230 | 63 | 23 | 5 | 5% | 1.3 | 27.4% | 10.0% | 17.4% | 2.2% | 4.44 | 3.25 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 61 | 266 | 54 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.8 | 15.6% | 11.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.38 | 5.79 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 61 | 266 | 54 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 3.38 | 4.05 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 66 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 3.63 | 3.74 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 66 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.6% | 9.6% | 18.0% | 1.7% | 3.63 | 2.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 25 | 0 | 38 | 178 | 32 | 33 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.0% | 19.6% | -3.6% | 1.5% | 4.78 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 108 | 474 | 90 | 66 | 11 | — | — | 19.0% | 13.9% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 4.84 | 4.94 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.7% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 58 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 57 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 34 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 57 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.50 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 92 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 181 | 6 | 275 | 1219 | 223 | 151 | 31 | 3% | 1.5 | 18.3% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 4.39 | 4.52 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 4 | 200 | 887 | 162 | 110 | 23 | 3% | 1.5 | 18.3% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 4.39 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Carey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.87 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.87 | 20.1% | 9.1% | 136 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 90 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.96 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.08 | 3.05 | 290 | 88 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 88 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 87 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .298 | 3.09 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -1.00 | 1.97 | 682 | 87 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.06 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 183 | 87 |
| Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.15 | 14.3% | 2.3% | 36 | +0.27 | 3.73 | 154 | 86 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 86 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 86 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 86 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 86 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .304 | 3.13 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 51 | -1.15 | 3.02 | 214 | 85 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .325 | 4.53 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.65 | 3.88 | 500 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 85 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 85 |
| Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 85 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.24 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 4.5% | .293 | 4.39 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.85 | 1.27 | 164 | 85 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.58 | 17.1% | 4.9% | 50 | -0.70 | 3.50 | 219 | 85 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 84 |
| Tyler Myrick R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.68 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .307 | 5.19 | 13.0% | 4.1% | 59 | +1.51 | 3.33 | 204 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 1.19 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |