Jack Carey — OGILVIE

Jack Carey P Columbus Clippers

+0.2 WAR

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%11.3%

IP53

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.2peak

2026

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	4	0	5	22	5	2	0	—	—	—	5.06	—	—
2022	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	33	4	61	284	62	27	9	16.8%	10.9%	3.0%	5.75	4.70	+0.2
2023	23	AA	Altoona Curve	40	2	53	230	63	23	5	20.8%	11.6%	2.0%	4.44	3.88	+0.6
2024	24	AA	Altoona Curve	35	0	61	266	54	25	7	15.6%	11.3%	3.6%	3.38	5.22	-0.2
2025	25	AA	Altoona Curve	44	0	57	239	66	23	4	21.8%	11.0%	2.1%	3.63	3.79	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	AAA	Columbus Clippers	4	0	6	34	4	7	1	—	—	—	12.79	—	—
ROS	26	MLB	CLE	53	—	53	224	48	23	7	21.5%	10.4%	2.9%	4.58	4.58	+0.2
2026 Total	26	MLB	CLE	—	—	59	258	52	30	8	20.2%	11.8%	2.9%	5.46	4.09	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	CLE	53	—	53	222	48	23	7	21.7%	10.3%	2.9%	4.56	4.56	+0.2
2028	28	MLB	CLE	52	—	52	219	48	22	6	21.8%	10.3%	3.0%	4.56	4.57	+0.2
2029	29	MLB	CLE	51	—	51	214	46	22	6	21.8%	10.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.60	+0.2
2030	30	MLB	CLE	49	—	49	207	45	21	6	21.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.63	4.66	+0.2
2031	31	MLB	CLE	47	—	47	200	43	21	6	21.3%	10.5%	3.1%	4.69	4.73	+0.1
2032	32	MLB	CLE	46	—	46	192	40	20	6	21.1%	10.7%	3.2%	4.77	4.82	+0.1
2033	33	MLB	CLE	44	—	44	184	38	20	6	20.8%	10.8%	3.3%	4.86	4.92	+0.0
2034	34	MLB	CLE	41	—	41	174	36	19	6	20.4%	11.0%	3.4%	4.96	5.03	-0.0
2035	35	MLB	CLE	39	—	39	164	33	18	6	20.0%	11.2%	3.5%	5.07	5.15	-0.1
2036	36	MLB	CLE	36	—	36	154	30	18	6	19.6%	11.5%	3.6%	5.20	5.28	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			160	6	244	1075	198	123	29	18.4%	11.5%	2.7%	4.54	4.45	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—			131	5	200	882	163	101	24	18.4%	11.5%	2.7%	4.54	4.45	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Carey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	21.5%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.58	21.8%	11.5%	155	-0.00	—	—	—
Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	26	SW	3.85	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.07	3.23	161	92
Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	26	SW	4.22	23.4%	11.6%	3.0%	.273	4.53	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.31	3.70	187	91
Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	26	SW	4.05	21.2%	9.4%	2.8%	.295	4.28	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.23	3.34	187	90
Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	26	SW	3.83	20.2%	9.8%	2.2%	.303	4.06	19.2%	12.5%	143	+0.23	3.05	290	89
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	26	SW	4.45	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.78	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.65	315	89
Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	26	SW	4.33	22.1%	9.2%	3.5%	.282	3.20	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.13	1.79	618	88
Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	26	SW	3.76	23.9%	12.3%	2.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	117	88
R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	26	SW	3.90	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.29	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.61	2.45	362	88
Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	19.6%	10.5%	3.9%	.293	4.50	12.8%	-1.5%	34	-0.43	1.27	164	87
Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	26	SW	4.57	18.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	87
Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	26	SW	3.52	23.1%	9.3%	2.2%	.244	3.73	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.21	3.18	253	87
Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	26	SW	3.97	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.00	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	1.99	682	87
Easton Sikorski R 2025 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	21.1%	10.6%	3.0%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	159	87
Tyler Myrick R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	20.6%	9.8%	2.1%	.307	5.33	13.0%	4.1%	59	+1.59	3.36	204	86
Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	26	SW	3.79	18.2%	8.7%	2.1%	.266	4.46	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.67	3.75	154	86
Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP	25	SW	4.59	19.9%	9.3%	3.6%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	146	86
Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	26	SW	3.84	21.6%	8.2%	2.8%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	206	86
Cody Satterwhite R 2028 · 3.72 FIP	28	SW	3.72	20.2%	9.8%	2.0%	.333	4.05	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.70	147	86
David Goforth R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	26	SW	4.06	17.4%	9.8%	2.2%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.52	4.06	256	86
Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.06	3.69	239	86

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.