Jack Carey — OGILVIE

Jack Carey P Akron RubberDucks

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%19.7%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	5	22	5	2	0	0%	1.3	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	0.0%	5.06	2.33	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	5	22	5	2	0	0%	1.3	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	0.0%	5.06	2.35	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	33	4	61	284	62	27	9	12%	1.8	16.8%	10.9%	5.9%	3.1%	5.75	4.77	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	33	4	61	284	62	27	9	12%	1.8	21.8%	9.5%	12.3%	3.2%	5.75	4.31	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	2	53	230	63	23	5	5%	1.3	20.8%	11.6%	9.2%	1.9%	4.44	3.86	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	2	53	230	63	23	5	5%	1.3	20.8%	11.6%	9.2%	1.9%	4.44	3.86	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	2	53	230	63	23	5	5%	1.3	27.4%	10.0%	17.4%	2.2%	4.44	3.25	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	61	266	54	25	7	0%	1.8	15.6%	11.3%	4.3%	3.8%	3.38	5.32	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	61	266	54	25	7	0%	1.8	15.6%	11.3%	4.3%	3.8%	3.38	5.32	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	61	266	54	25	7	0%	1.8	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	2.6%	3.38	4.05	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	57	239	66	23	4	0%	1.3	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	2.1%	3.63	3.79	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	57	239	66	23	4	0%	1.3	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	2.1%	3.63	3.79	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	57	239	66	23	4	0%	1.3	27.6%	9.6%	18.0%	1.7%	3.63	2.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	25	0	38	178	32	33	2	0%	1.5	16.0%	19.6%	-3.6%	1.5%	4.78	5.07	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	25	0	38	178	32	33	2	0%	1.5	16.0%	19.6%	-3.6%	1.5%	4.78	5.07	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CLE	23	0	33	157	31	28	2	0%	1.4	19.7%	17.8%	1.9%	1.3%	4.86	4.39	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CLE	2	0	4	21	1	5	0	0%	2.1	4.8%	23.8%	-19.0%	0.0%	4.15	5.71	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CLE	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.2%	8.4%	2.9%	4.85	4.85	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	44	203	37	36	3	—	—	18.2%	17.6%	0.5%	1.3%	4.79	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CLE	66	0	69	291	58	32	9	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.1%	8.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.83	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	64	0	67	282	57	31	9	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.1%	9.0%	3.1%	4.84	4.88	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	CLE	61	0	64	270	54	30	9	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.2%	8.8%	3.2%	4.91	4.98	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	CLE	25	0	26	110	22	12	3	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.1%	8.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.83	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	38	0	40	169	34	19	5	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.1%	9.0%	3.1%	4.84	4.88	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CLE	43	0	45	190	38	21	6	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.2%	8.8%	3.2%	4.91	4.98	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	469	94	52	15	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.2%	8.9%	3.1%	4.86	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	94	27	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.2%	8.9%	3.1%	4.86	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		181	6	275	1219	223	151	31	3%	1.5	18.3%	12.4%	5.9%	2.5%	4.39	4.53	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	4	200	887	162	110	23	3%	1.5	18.3%	12.4%	5.9%	2.5%	4.39	4.53	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Carey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	19.7%	11.2%	2.9%	—	4.89	20.1%	8.9%	200	+0.04	—	—	—
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	89
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	89
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	88
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	88
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	87
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	87
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	87
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	86
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	86
Carlos Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.2%	8.7%	2.0%	.266	4.37	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.59	3.75	154	86
Randall Delgado R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	20.2%	9.8%	2.4%	.303	4.07	19.2%	12.5%	143	+0.14	3.09	290	86
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	86
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	85
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	85
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	20.0%	11.2%	1.18	4.85
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86