Junior Cerda — OGILVIE

Junior Cerda P Hillsboro Hops

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 170 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%22.5%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 2	18	0	27	110	34	10	0	0%	1.5	21.0%	11.4%	9.7%	0.0%	1.67	2.76	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 2	18	0	27	110	34	10	0	0%	1.5	30.9%	9.1%	21.8%	0.0%	1.67	1.69	—
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	13	1	40	165	41	18	5	8%	3.1	16.9%	13.6%	3.3%	3.8%	2.92	5.48	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	13	1	40	165	41	18	5	8%	3.1	24.8%	10.9%	13.9%	3.0%	2.92	4.03	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	3	45	216	54	26	2	15%	2.2	17.8%	14.8%	3.0%	1.2%	6.25	4.13	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	3	45	216	54	26	2	15%	2.2	17.8%	14.8%	3.0%	1.2%	6.25	4.13	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	3	45	216	54	26	2	15%	2.2	25.0%	12.0%	13.0%	0.9%	6.25	3.01	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	25	127	39	22	2	0%	1.2	22.3%	22.2%	0.1%	2.5%	5.04	5.40	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	25	127	39	22	2	0%	1.2	22.3%	22.2%	0.1%	2.5%	5.04	5.40	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	25	127	39	22	2	0%	1.2	30.7%	17.3%	13.4%	1.6%	5.04	3.66	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	ARI	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	22.5%	15.9%	6.6%	3.0%	5.22	5.22	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ARI	21	0	22	94	21	14	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.3%	7.2%	3.0%	5.15	5.17	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	ARI	8	0	8	34	8	5	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	15.3%	7.2%	3.0%	5.15	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	8	5	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	15.3%	7.2%	3.0%	5.15	4.79	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	123	25	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.3%	7.2%	3.0%	5.15	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		71	4	137	618	118	95	12	6%	1.9	19.1%	15.4%	3.7%	1.9%	4.15	4.51	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	6	200	904	172	139	18	6%	1.9	19.1%	15.4%	3.7%	1.9%	4.15	4.51	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Cerda (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	22.5%	15.9%	3.0%	—	5.17	22.5%	7.2%	22	-0.05	—	—	—
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	87
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	82
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	82
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	81
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	80
Jackson Goddard R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	26	SU	4.53	21.1%	14.3%	2.5%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	149	80
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	80
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	80
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	79
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	79
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	79
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	79
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	78
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	78
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	78
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	78
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	78
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	78