Nick Lockhart
P
Hickory Crawdads
Age 25
RHP
6'6" / 204 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%23.0%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 6 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 14.8% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 2.16 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 6 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 14.8% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 2.10 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 6 | 49 | 214 | 55 | 21 | 8 | 33% | 2.7 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.84 | 5.74 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 6 | 49 | 214 | 55 | 21 | 8 | 33% | 2.7 | 25.7% | 9.8% | 15.9% | 3.7% | 6.84 | 4.27 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 30 | 0 | 49 | 202 | 60 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 4.22 | 4.65 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 30 | 0 | 49 | 202 | 60 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.7% | 8.4% | 21.3% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 3.02 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 6 | 43 | 184 | 39 | 17 | 4 | 29% | 2.0 | 16.1% | 10.6% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 4.67 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 6 | 43 | 184 | 39 | 17 | 4 | 29% | 2.0 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 3.80 | 3.69 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.41 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 24 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 24 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 3.96 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 74 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 76 | 12 | 148 | 632 | 123 | 69 | 24 | 16% | 1.9 | 19.5% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 4.94 | 4.89 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 16 | 200 | 856 | 167 | 93 | 32 | 16% | 1.9 | 19.5% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 4.94 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Lockhart (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.34 | 23.2% | 13.9% | 25 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 86 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 84 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 83 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.88 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.10 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.22 | 3.88 | 158 | 83 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 82 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 82 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 1.8% | .257 | 5.16 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.98 | 3.18 | 117 | 82 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 82 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 82 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 81 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 100 | 81 |
| Miguel Sánchez R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.68 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .305 | 4.77 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 83 | +1.09 | 2.54 | 309 | 81 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 81 |
| Carter Rustad R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 80 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .286 | 6.43 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 24 | +2.19 | 4.09 | 183 | 80 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.67 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 153 | 80 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.24 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .274 | 4.67 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 38 | +1.43 | 3.24 | 172 | 80 |
| Austin Warren R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.78 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .338 | 4.31 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 73 | +0.53 | 3.78 | 294 | 80 |
| Brad Bass R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 247 | 80 |
| Kelly Austin R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.58 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.1% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 119 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |