Nick Lockhart
P
Hickory Crawdads
+0.2
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'6" / 204 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.6%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 6 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 18 | 6 | 49 | 214 | 55 | 21 | 8 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 4.9% | 6.84 | 5.72 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 30 | 0 | 49 | 202 | 60 | 17 | 5 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.22 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 21 | 6 | 43 | 184 | 39 | 17 | 4 | 16.1% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 3.80 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 12 | 148 | 632 | 123 | 69 | 23 | 19.5% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.79 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 16 | 200 | 856 | 167 | 93 | 31 | 19.5% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.79 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Lockhart (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.35 | 23.2% | 13.9% | 108 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 91 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 90 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.39 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .257 | 5.29 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.90 | 3.39 | 117 | 90 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 89 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 89 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 88 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 88 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 88 |
| Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.19 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 4.15 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 152 | +0.96 | 3.19 | 183 | 86 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 85 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 85 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.65 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.16 | 3.16 | 153 | 85 |
| Will Vest R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .282 | 3.66 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 124 | -0.05 | 2.53 | 421 | 84 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 84 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 84 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 84 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | .282 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 1.3% | 95 | +0.94 | 3.72 | 164 | 84 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 84 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 84 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.