Nick Lockhart — OGILVIE

Nick Lockhart P Hickory Crawdads

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 204 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%21.4%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	6	0	6	27	9	4	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	14.8%	18.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.16	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	6	0	6	27	9	4	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	14.8%	18.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.10	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	6	49	214	55	21	8	33%	2.7	18.3%	11.6%	6.6%	4.9%	6.84	5.73	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	6	49	214	55	21	8	33%	2.7	25.7%	9.8%	15.9%	3.7%	6.84	4.27	—
2022	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	30	0	49	202	60	17	5	0%	1.6	22.0%	9.9%	12.0%	3.5%	4.22	4.44	—
2022	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	30	0	49	202	60	17	5	0%	1.6	29.7%	8.4%	21.3%	2.5%	4.22	3.02	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	6	43	184	39	17	4	29%	2.0	16.1%	10.6%	5.4%	2.8%	3.80	4.63	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	6	43	184	39	17	4	29%	2.0	16.1%	10.6%	5.4%	2.8%	3.80	4.63	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	6	43	184	39	17	4	29%	2.0	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	2.2%	3.80	3.69	—
2025	24	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0%	1.3	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.41	—
2025	24	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0%	1.3	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.41	—
2025	24	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0%	1.3	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	TEX	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TEX	24	0	25	107	23	10	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.51	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	TEX	10	0	11	46	10	4	1	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	10	4	1	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.13	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	74	18	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		76	12	148	632	123	69	23	16%	1.9	19.5%	10.8%	8.6%	3.6%	4.94	4.81	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	16	200	856	167	93	31	16%	1.9	19.5%	10.8%	8.6%	3.6%	4.94	4.81	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Lockhart (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	21.4%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.51	21.8%	12.1%	25	-0.05	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	85
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	85
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	82
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	82
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	82
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	82
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	81
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	81
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	81
Miguel Sánchez R 2019 · 3.65 FIP	25	SU	3.65	21.3%	9.0%	2.2%	.305	4.59	19.1%	9.7%	83	+0.94	2.54	309	81
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	81
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	81
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	80
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	80
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	80
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	80
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	80
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	80
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.6%	9.7%	1.16	4.54
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97