Ricardo Velez — OGILVIE

Ricardo Velez P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%17.9%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%5.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	5	0	7	34	8	5	2	0%	1.3	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	5.40	6.20	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	5	0	7	34	8	5	2	0%	1.3	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	5.40	6.85	—
2022	23	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	8	0	7	33	12	4	0	0%	0.9	36.4%	12.1%	24.2%	0.0%	3.68	1.56	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	8	0	7	33	12	4	0	0%	0.9	36.4%	12.1%	24.2%	0.0%	3.68	1.46	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	40	166	51	14	3	0%	1.5	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	3.4%	2.95	4.44	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	40	166	51	14	3	0%	1.5	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	3.4%	2.95	4.44	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	40	166	51	14	3	0%	1.5	30.7%	8.4%	22.3%	1.8%	2.95	2.57	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	55	235	68	20	5	0%	1.3	22.6%	9.6%	12.9%	2.7%	3.93	3.90	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	55	235	68	20	5	0%	1.3	22.6%	9.6%	12.9%	2.7%	3.93	3.90	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	55	235	68	20	5	0%	1.3	28.9%	8.5%	20.4%	2.1%	3.93	2.90	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	65	267	55	29	3	3%	2.0	17.7%	11.8%	5.9%	1.3%	1.80	3.83	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	65	267	55	29	3	3%	2.0	17.7%	11.8%	5.9%	1.3%	1.80	3.83	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	65	267	55	29	3	3%	2.0	20.6%	10.9%	9.7%	1.1%	1.80	3.35	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	17	0	24	113	18	11	3	0%	1.4	12.9%	10.7%	2.2%	3.2%	5.18	5.12	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	17	0	24	113	18	11	3	0%	1.4	12.9%	10.7%	2.2%	3.2%	5.18	5.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	TEX	17	0	24	113	18	11	3	0%	1.4	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	2.7%	5.18	4.45	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	TEX	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.0%	5.9%	2.6%	4.95	4.95	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	30	138	22	14	4	—	—	16.3%	10.1%	6.1%	2.7%	5.13	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TEX	65	0	68	287	52	34	8	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.9%	6.4%	2.8%	4.93	4.97	-0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	62	0	65	274	50	33	8	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.9%	6.6%	2.9%	4.98	5.05	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	TEX	25	0	26	110	20	13	3	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.9%	6.4%	2.8%	4.93	4.97	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	34	0	36	152	28	18	4	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.9%	6.6%	2.9%	4.98	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	261	48	31	8	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.9%	6.5%	2.9%	4.96	4.63	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	100	26	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.9%	6.5%	2.9%	4.96	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		133	1	198	848	172	93	21	1%	1.5	20.3%	11.0%	9.3%	2.5%	3.23	4.15	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	1	200	857	174	94	21	1%	1.5	20.3%	11.0%	9.3%	2.5%	3.23	4.15	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricardo Velez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	17.9%	12.0%	2.6%	—	5.01	18.4%	6.5%	133	+0.06	—	—	—
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	93
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	89
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	88
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	88
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	86
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	86
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	85
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	84
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	84
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	84
David Goforth R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	14.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.333	4.52	13.9%	4.6%	122	-0.16	3.98	256	84
J.J. Hoover R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SU	4.22	19.7%	11.4%	2.5%	.211	4.46	24.6%	14.3%	98	+0.24	4.22	258	83
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	83
Chris Jefferson R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	16.6%	11.8%	2.3%	.333	5.65	16.4%	2.8%	46	+1.20	3.53	140	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	83
Tucker Healy R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	15.6%	11.5%	2.0%	.321	5.20	19.2%	8.7%	24	+0.87	2.82	174	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	18.2%	11.9%	1.08	4.95
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04