Ricardo Velez
P
Frisco RoughRiders
+0.2
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%10.9%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Twins | 5 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Twins | 8 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.68 | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 27 | 0 | 40 | 166 | 51 | 14 | 3 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 2.95 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 43 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 68 | 20 | 5 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 33 | 1 | 65 | 267 | 55 | 29 | 3 | 17.7% | 11.8% | 1.3% | 1.80 | 3.82 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 4 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TEX | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 46 | 26 | 6 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 62 | 261 | 54 | 29 | 7 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 46 | 25 | 6 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 45 | 24 | 6 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 44 | 24 | 6 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 42 | 23 | 6 | 20.1% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 39 | 22 | 6 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 37 | 22 | 6 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 35 | 21 | 6 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 32 | 20 | 6 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 5.14 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 29 | 19 | 5 | 18.4% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 5.26 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 1 | 181 | 766 | 165 | 84 | 19 | 21.6% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 2.93 | 4.00 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 1 | 200 | 846 | 182 | 93 | 21 | 21.6% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 2.93 | 4.00 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ricardo Velez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.70 | 20.2% | 9.2% | 157 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 90 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 89 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 89 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 88 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 88 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 88 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 88 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.46 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.20 | 4.26 | 258 | 87 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.58 | 17.4% | 10.0% | 1.3% | .317 | 3.06 | 17.5% | 13.1% | 49 | -0.52 | 3.06 | 137 | 87 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.45 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.53 | 3.42 | 365 | 86 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 86 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 85 |
| Brett McKinney R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 85 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 85 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 85 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.91 | 3.16 | 155 | 85 |
| Josh Zeid R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.13 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .302 | 5.19 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +1.06 | 4.13 | 265 | 84 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2029 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 84 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 84 |
| Roman Mendez R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.12 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .246 | 4.74 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 116 | +0.62 | 4.12 | 230 | 84 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.