Ricardo Velez

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	43	0	55	3.93	2.90	28.9%	8.5%	—	K 22.6% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.90
2025	26	MIX2 levels	33	1	65	1.80	3.35	20.6%	10.9%	—	K 17.7% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.83
2026	27	AATEX	17	0	24	5.18	4.58	15.9%	9.7%	—	K 12.9% · BB 10.7% · FIP 5.12
2027PROJ	28	MLBTEX	1	0	1	5.24	5.24	15.4%	11.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBTEX	12	0	13	5.23	5.28	16.0%	11.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBTEX	16	0	17	5.29	5.38	16.2%	12.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control45Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsKevin Gryboski (age 28) · Beck Wheeler (age 28) · David Goforth (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%15.4%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%3.5%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	5	0	7	34	8	5	2	0%	1.3	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	5.40	6.20	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	5	0	7	34	8	5	2	0%	1.3	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	5.40	6.85	—
2022	23	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	8	0	7	33	12	4	0	0%	0.9	36.4%	12.1%	24.2%	0.0%	3.68	1.56	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	8	0	7	33	12	4	0	0%	0.9	36.4%	12.1%	24.2%	0.0%	3.68	1.46	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	40	166	51	14	3	0%	1.5	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	3.4%	2.95	4.44	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	40	166	51	14	3	0%	1.5	30.7%	8.4%	22.3%	1.8%	2.95	2.57	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	55	235	68	20	5	0%	1.3	22.6%	9.6%	12.9%	2.7%	3.93	3.90	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	55	235	68	20	5	0%	1.3	22.6%	9.6%	12.9%	2.7%	3.93	3.90	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	55	235	68	20	5	0%	1.3	28.9%	8.5%	20.4%	2.1%	3.93	2.90	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	65	267	55	29	3	3%	2.0	17.7%	11.8%	5.9%	1.3%	1.80	3.83	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	65	267	55	29	3	3%	2.0	17.7%	11.8%	5.9%	1.3%	1.80	3.83	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	65	267	55	29	3	3%	2.0	20.6%	10.9%	9.7%	1.1%	1.80	3.35	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	17	0	24	113	18	11	3	0%	1.4	12.9%	10.7%	2.2%	3.2%	5.18	5.12	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	17	0	24	113	18	11	3	0%	1.4	12.9%	10.7%	2.2%	3.2%	5.18	5.12	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	17	0	24	113	18	11	3	0%	1.4	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	2.7%	5.18	4.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TEX	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	15.4%	11.9%	3.5%	2.8%	5.24	5.24	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	40	0	42	176	28	21	5	0%	1.0	16.0%	11.9%	4.1%	3.0%	5.23	5.28	-0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	TEX	32	0	34	142	23	17	5	0%	1.1	16.2%	12.0%	4.2%	3.2%	5.29	5.38	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	12	0	13	55	9	7	2	0%	1.1	16.0%	11.9%	4.1%	3.0%	5.23	5.28	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	TEX	16	0	17	72	12	9	2	0%	1.1	16.2%	12.0%	4.2%	3.2%	5.29	5.38	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	0	30	128	21	15	4	0%	1.0	16.1%	11.9%	4.2%	3.1%	5.26	4.96	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	138	99	26	0%	1.1	16.1%	11.9%	4.2%	3.1%	5.26	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		133	1	198	848	172	93	21	1%	1.5	20.3%	11.0%	9.3%	2.5%	3.23	4.15	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	1	200	857	174	94	21	1%	1.5	20.3%	11.0%	9.3%	2.5%	3.23	4.15	-1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 24 IPFIP 4.45 → 5.12 (+0.67)K% 15.9% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.93%	—	×0.810	12.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.73%	—	×1.100	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.19%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.45 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 59 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.83 (+0.54)K% 21.8% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.81%	—	×0.810	17.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.70%	—	×1.100	11.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.105	×1.200	1.34%

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 6 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.38 (+0.40)K% 8.3% → 6.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	8.33%	—	×0.770	6.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.150	14.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.857	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 36 IPFIP 2.06 → 2.92 (+0.86)K% 34.0% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.00%	—	×0.770	26.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.67%	—	×1.150	9.97%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.191	×1.250	1.40%

Result: FIP 2.06 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 19 IPFIP 4.39 → 5.63 (+1.24)K% 20.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.810	16.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.24%	—	×1.100	9.06%
HR / BF /BF	3.53%	÷0.845	×1.200	5.01%

Result: FIP 4.39 → 5.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 28 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.44 (+1.34)K% 30.3% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.25%	—	×0.740	22.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.24%	—	×1.180	10.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷0.976	×1.300	3.36%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 6 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.04 (+0.69)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.150	12.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.134	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Twins · 7 IPFIP 1.56 → 2.93 (+1.37)K% 36.4% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.680	24.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×1.250	15.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.282	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 1.56 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricardo Velez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	15.4%	11.9%	2.8%	—	5.32	16.1%	4.2%	75	+0.08	—	—	—
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	88
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	87
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	84
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	84
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	83
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	83
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	83
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	83
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	82
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	82
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	82
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	82
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	82
Brian Bass R 2009 · 4.70 FIP	27	SU	4.70	13.5%	9.8%	2.8%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	176	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Grant Black R 2022 · 5.20 FIP	28	SU	5.20	14.0%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	5.49	15.9%	4.6%	79	+0.29	4.46	215	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	15.8%	11.9%	1.15	5.25
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*