Ricardo Velez
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 112
ERA4.95
FIP4.95
K%17.9%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%5.9%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Twins | 5 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.5% | 14.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.40 | 6.20 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Twins | 5 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.5% | 14.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.40 | 6.85 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Twins | 8 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 36.4% | 12.1% | 24.2% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 1.56 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Twins | 8 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 36.4% | 12.1% | 24.2% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 1.46 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 0 | 40 | 166 | 51 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 2.95 | 4.48 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 0 | 40 | 166 | 51 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 30.7% | 8.4% | 22.3% | 1.8% | 2.95 | 2.57 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 68 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 3.93 | 4.06 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 68 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.9% | 8.5% | 20.4% | 2.1% | 3.93 | 2.90 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 65 | 267 | 55 | 29 | 3 | 3% | 2.0 | 17.7% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 1.2% | 1.80 | 3.77 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 65 | 267 | 55 | 29 | 3 | 3% | 2.0 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 1.80 | 3.35 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 17 | 0 | 24 | 113 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 12.9% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.18 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TEX | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 53 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 94 | 409 | 71 | 47 | 11 | — | — | 17.3% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 5.01 | 4.99 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.9% | 12.0% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 52 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 11.9% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 47 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 12.1% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 11.9% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 28 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 32 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 12.1% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 0 | 104 | 441 | 81 | 53 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 12.0% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 4.71 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 102 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 12.0% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 133 | 1 | 198 | 848 | 172 | 93 | 22 | 1% | 1.5 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 3.23 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 134 | 1 | 200 | 857 | 174 | 94 | 22 | 1% | 1.5 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 3.23 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ricardo Velez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.7% | — | 5.07 | 18.4% | 6.4% | 194 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 91 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 89 |
| Josh Zeid R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 89 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 88 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 87 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 87 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 86 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.83 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.33 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.50 | 3.11 | 313 | 86 |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 84 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 84 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.74 | 14.5% | 12.8% | 2.3% | .333 | 4.50 | 13.9% | 4.6% | 122 | -0.24 | 3.92 | 256 | 84 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 15.6% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .321 | 5.43 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 24 | +0.91 | 2.85 | 174 | 84 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 84 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.92 | 3.16 | 155 | 83 |
| Confesor Lara R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 83 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.51 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.25 | 4.26 | 258 | 83 |
| Brad Schreiber R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 1.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 171 | 83 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 83 |
| Mike Adams R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 83 |
| David Martinez R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 14.2% | 8.3% | 1.6% | .284 | 4.80 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 230 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 297 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 18.2% | 12.0% | 1.12 | 4.99 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |