Billy Corcoran

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 27 RHP 6'8" / 220 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	25	25	134	4.35	3.85	20.3%	6.4%	—	K 16.2% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.35
2025	25	AAAARI	5	5	21	10.55	4.83	17.1%	6.7%	—	K 14.7% · BB 6.0% · FIP 5.16
2026	26	MIX2 levels	25	5	58	5.90	6.20	22.6%	9.7%	—	K 17.8% · BB 10.2% · FIP 7.62
2027PROJ	27	MLBARI	1	0	1	5.46	5.46	17.5%	8.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBARI	10	0	10	5.40	5.43	18.0%	9.1%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsColby Morris (age 25) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.46

FIP5.46

K%17.5%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	4	0	7	34	10	1	1	0%	1.8	29.4%	2.9%	26.5%	2.9%	9.00	2.60	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	4	0	7	34	10	1	1	0%	1.8	29.4%	2.9%	26.5%	2.9%	9.00	2.53	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	7	69	291	75	25	6	23%	2.3	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	2.7%	4.30	4.20	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	7	69	291	75	25	6	23%	2.3	25.8%	8.6%	17.2%	2.1%	4.30	3.14	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	134	561	114	36	17	100%	5.4	16.2%	7.1%	9.1%	3.1%	4.35	4.35	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	134	561	114	36	17	100%	5.4	16.2%	7.1%	9.1%	3.1%	4.35	4.35	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	134	561	114	36	17	100%	5.4	20.3%	6.4%	13.9%	3.0%	4.35	3.85	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	5	5	21	105	18	7	4	100%	4.3	14.7%	6.0%	8.7%	4.6%	10.55	5.16	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	5	5	21	105	18	7	4	100%	4.3	14.7%	6.0%	8.7%	4.6%	10.55	5.16	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	5	5	21	105	18	7	4	100%	4.3	17.1%	6.7%	10.5%	3.8%	10.55	4.83	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	5	58	257	58	25	17	20%	2.3	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	8.6%	5.90	7.62	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	5	58	257	58	25	17	20%	2.3	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	8.6%	5.90	7.62	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	5	58	257	58	25	17	20%	2.3	22.6%	9.7%	12.8%	6.6%	5.90	6.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	ARI	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	17.5%	8.9%	8.6%	4.2%	5.46	5.46	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	26	0	28	117	21	11	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	4.2%	5.40	5.43	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	10	0	10	42	8	4	2	0%	1.0	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	4.2%	5.40	5.43	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	44	8	4	2	0%	1.0	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	4.2%	5.40	5.05	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	77	38	0%	1.1	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	4.2%	5.40	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		89	42	290	1248	219	103	53	47%	3.3	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	4.3%	5.22	5.01	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	29	200	862	151	71	37	47%	3.3	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	4.3%	5.22	5.01	-2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 52 IPFIP 6.36 → 7.62 (+1.26)K% 21.9% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.94%	—	×0.810	17.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.28%	—	×1.100	10.21%
HR / BF /BF	7.17%	÷1.000	×1.200	8.61%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.36 → 7.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 6 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.33 (+0.87)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.770	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.150	17.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 21 IPFIP 4.59 → 5.16 (+0.57)K% 17.1% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.14%	—	×0.860	14.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×0.900	6.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.81%	÷0.904	×1.100	4.63%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 4.59 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 106 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.61 (+0.32)K% 17.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.49%	—	×0.810	14.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.50%	—	×1.100	7.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.36%	÷1.229	×1.200	3.28%

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hillsboro Hops · 28 IPFIP 2.18 → 3.32 (+1.13)K% 31.3% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.30%	—	×0.770	24.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.09%	—	×1.150	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷0.875	×1.250	2.49%

Result: FIP 2.18 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 40 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.45 (+1.07)K% 25.4% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.44%	—	×0.770	19.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.88%	—	×1.150	10.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷0.952	×1.250	3.11%

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AVisalia Rawhide · 29 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.85 (+1.03)K% 26.2% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.23%	—	×0.740	19.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.20%	—	×1.180	9.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.003	×1.300	2.12%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL D-backs Red · 7 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.90 (+1.29)K% 29.4% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.680	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.94%	—	×1.250	3.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.119	×1.400	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Billy Corcoran (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.46	17.5%	8.9%	4.2%	—	5.43	18.0%	8.9%	28	-0.03	—	—	—
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	80
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	80
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	78
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	78
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	78
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	77
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	76
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	76
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	75
Luis Romero R 2021 · 6.01 FIP	27	SW	6.01	13.8%	10.1%	5.1%	.293	5.68	11.7%	-1.4%	68	-0.33	4.00	293	74
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	74
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	74
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	74
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	74
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	74
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	74
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	73
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	73
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	71
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	17.7%	9.0%	1.64	5.43
Josh Osich ('21)	1.1	55	20.7%	9.0%	1.84	5.02
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*