Bryce Rainer — OGILVIE

Bryce RainerSS West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 21 L/R 6'3" / 195 lbs A+ HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION308 act + 205 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .310 / .386

PA205

HR6

SB7

K%40

BB%10

BABIP371

ISO160

MLB%11%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

DEFENSE54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$18M	+$17M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.8	$19M	+$19M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.1	$20M	+$19M
2030	Arb-1	$7M	+3.3	$19M	+$15M
2031	Arb-2	$11M	+3.4	$19M	+$12M
2032	Arb-3	$17M	+3.3	$17M	+$8M
Totals		$37M		$112M	+$90M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	149	128	31	5	0	6	17	47	1	9	3	242	336	422	757	180	321	32	11	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	149	125	36	5	0	5	20	33	1	9	3	288	390	448	838	160	344	22	13	369	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A+	DET	—	308	273	54	14	1	7	32	149	1	16	3	198	284	333	618	136	395	48	10	274	68	-11	+2	+0	+3	+9	0.3
YTD	21	A+	DET	—	308	260	70	19	1	10	45	109	1	16	3	269	379	465	844	196	420	35	15	374	144	+15	+2	+0	+3	+9	3.0
ROS	21	A+	DET	11%	205	181	41	9	1	6	21	82	1	7	2	226	310	386	696	160	359	40	10	306	93	-2	+1	+1	+2	+6	0.8
ROS	21	MLB	DET	11%	22	20	5	1	0	1	2	9	0	1	0	250	318	450	768	200	352	41	9	297	85	-0	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.1
FULL	21	A+	DET	—	330	293	59	15	1	8	34	158	1	17	3	201	287	341	628	140	395	48	10	275	69	-12	+2	+0	+4	+9	0.4
TOT	21	A+	DET	—	513	454	95	23	2	13	53	231	2	23	5	209	295	354	649	145	384	45	10	287	78	-13	+3	+1	+6	+15	1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	DET	59%	544	481	109	23	2	17	55	210	3	14	3	227	310	389	699	162	357	39	10	312	97	-2	+2	+2	+6	+15	2.4
2028	23	MLB	DET	76%	559	494	114	23	2	19	56	208	4	15	3	231	314	401	715	170	352	37	10	320	103	+2	+2	+2	+6	+16	2.8
2029	24	MLB	DET	80%	564	498	117	24	2	20	57	205	4	15	3	235	318	412	730	177	350	36	10	326	107	+5	+2	+2	+6	+16	3.1
2030	25	MLB	DET	81%	563	497	118	24	2	21	57	202	4	15	3	237	321	421	741	183	348	36	10	329	110	+6	+2	+2	+6	+16	3.3
2031	26	MLB	DET	82%	558	492	117	23	2	22	57	200	4	15	3	238	322	427	749	189	348	36	10	332	112	+7	+2	+2	+6	+16	3.4
2032	27	MLB	DET	80%	551	485	115	23	2	21	57	198	4	15	3	237	322	423	745	186	348	36	10	332	112	+7	+2	+2	+6	+16	3.3
2033	28	MLB	DET	80%	543	478	114	23	2	21	56	196	4	14	3	238	323	427	750	188	348	36	10	331	111	+7	+2	+1	+6	+15	3.2
2034	29	MLB	DET	77%	534	469	111	22	2	20	56	193	4	12	3	237	323	420	743	183	347	36	10	329	110	+6	+1	+0	+6	+15	2.9
2035	30	MLB	DET	76%	524	460	108	21	2	20	55	191	4	11	3	235	322	420	741	185	346	36	10	326	108	+5	+1	-0	+6	+15	2.6
2036	31	MLB	DET	76%	514	452	105	21	2	19	54	189	3	9	2	232	318	414	732	181	344	37	11	322	105	+3	+1	-1	+6	+15	2.3
2037	32	MLB	DET	75%	505	445	102	20	2	18	52	188	3	8	2	229	314	404	718	175	341	37	10	317	101	+0	+1	-2	+5	+14	2.0
2038	33	MLB	DET	81%	435	384	84	16	1	15	45	164	3	5	1	219	306	383	688	164	336	38	10	310	95	-2	+1	-3	+5	+12	1.3
2039	34	MLB	DET	77%	369	326	70	13	1	12	38	141	2	3	1	215	301	371	672	156	329	38	10	301	89	-5	+0	-4	+4	+10	0.6
2040	35	MLB	DET	72%	316	279	58	10	1	10	32	124	2	2	0	208	294	358	652	151	322	39	10	291	81	-7	+0	-4	+3	+9	0.2
2041	36	MLB	DET	63%	258	229	45	8	1	7	26	103	1	1	0	197	281	332	613	135	314	40	10	281	73	-8	+0	-5	+3	+7	-0.3
2027	22	MLB	DET	59%	322	284	63	13	1	10	33	124	2	8	2	222	307	380	687	158	351	39	10	302	89	-4	+1	+1	+3	+9	1.1
2028	23	MLB	DET	76%	424	375	85	17	2	14	43	158	3	11	3	227	311	395	706	168	346	37	10	309	95	-2	+1	+1	+5	+12	1.7
2029	24	MLB	DET	80%	448	397	91	18	2	15	45	163	3	12	3	229	312	398	710	169	343	36	10	314	99	-1	+1	+2	+5	+13	2.0
2030	25	MLB	DET	81%	456	404	94	19	2	16	46	163	3	12	3	233	316	408	724	176	342	36	10	318	101	+1	+1	+2	+5	+13	2.2
2031	26	MLB	DET	82%	455	403	95	19	2	17	46	163	3	12	3	236	319	419	738	184	342	36	10	320	103	+2	+1	+2	+5	+13	2.3
2032	27	MLB	DET	80%	442	391	91	18	2	16	45	159	3	12	3	233	317	412	728	179	342	36	10	320	103	+2	+1	+2	+5	+13	2.2
2033	28	MLB	DET	80%	432	381	88	17	2	16	45	156	3	11	2	231	317	412	729	181	341	36	10	319	102	+1	+1	+1	+5	+12	2.1
2034	29	MLB	DET	77%	414	365	85	17	2	15	43	150	3	10	2	233	319	414	732	181	341	36	10	317	101	+1	+1	+0	+4	+12	1.9
2035	30	MLB	DET	76%	400	352	80	16	1	14	42	146	3	8	2	227	315	398	713	170	340	36	10	315	99	-0	+1	-0	+4	+11	1.6
2036	31	MLB	DET	76%	389	342	77	15	1	14	41	143	3	7	2	225	313	398	711	173	337	37	11	311	97	-2	+1	-1	+4	+11	1.4
2037	32	MLB	DET	75%	381	336	74	14	1	13	40	142	2	6	1	220	307	384	691	164	334	37	10	306	93	-3	+1	-1	+4	+11	1.1
2038	33	MLB	DET	81%	354	312	68	13	1	12	37	133	2	4	1	218	305	381	686	163	329	38	10	300	88	-5	+0	-2	+4	+10	0.7
2039	34	MLB	DET	77%	284	251	53	10	1	9	29	109	2	2	1	211	298	367	664	155	323	38	10	291	81	-6	+0	-3	+3	+8	0.2
2040	35	MLB	DET	72%	229	203	41	7	1	7	23	90	1	1	0	202	286	350	636	148	316	39	10	282	74	-7	+0	-3	+2	+6	-0.1
2041	36	MLB	DET	63%	164	146	29	5	1	5	16	65	1	1	0	199	282	349	632	151	309	40	10	272	66	-6	+0	-3	+2	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5616	4962	1119	219	22	194	576	2073	37	118	28	226	311	396	706	170	340	37	10	310	95	-31	+12	-3	+60	+159	20.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	129	25	3	22	67	240	4	14	3	225	310	394	704	169	340	37	10	310	95	-4	+2	-0	+7	+18	2.3
Career	—			—	7691	6778	1559	308	27	274	791	2841	51	170	38	230	315	405	720	175	347	37	10	320	103	+25	+19	-5	+82	+218	34.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	131	26	2	23	67	240	4	14	3	229	314	401	715	173	344	37	10	320	103	+2	+2	-0	+7	+18	2.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	149	125	36	5	0	5	20	33	1	9	3	288	390	448	838	160	344	22	13	369	141	+7	+1	—	—	+4	1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Todd Frazierlast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,909 PA	10	4,909	218	73	242	319	448	+18	+35	27.6	26.2
	/162	664	29	10	242	319	448	+2.4	+4.7	3.7	pk7: 25
#2Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	12	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.2	25.1
	/162	664	17	6	252	318	423	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	5,617	202	118	231	313	408	+55	+21	24.7	20.5
	/162	664	24	14	231	313	408	+6.5	+2.4	2.9	pk7: 16
#3Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#4Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	9	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
#4Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	/162	664	23	11	249	308	437	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#5Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryce Rainer (OGILVIE)	21	39→49	50→60	52	53	209/295/354	145	384	13	23	45%	10%	78	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Colt Keith 2023 · A	21	49→54	49→55	53→45	44	238/301/393	155	334	16	8	32%	8%	95	+1.4	255/311/423	168	318	20	5	25%	7%	106	+2.2	260/320/425	165	316	20	4	23%	8%	108	+2.0
●Pete Crow-Armstrong 2023 · A	21	50→57	49→60	54→60	39	248/298/399	151	333	17	21	30%	5%	95	+1.4	232/284/401	169	301	19	31	29%	5%	90	+1.0	245/305/447	202	294	24	36	25%	6%	107	+2.0
●Colby Rasmus 2008 · AA	21	44→54	54→60	53→50	46	229/296/411	182	276	21	15	26%	8%	98	+1.6	235/303/399	164	282	19	12	23%	8%	98	+1.6	241/308/459	219	314	28	3	32%	8%	113	+2.0
✕Jaff Decker 2011 · A	21	47→49	57→55	45→55	50	241/329/438	198	309	25	7	29%	10%	118	+3.0	207/285/370	163	278	19	9	31%	9%	83	+0.6	217/292/336	119	282	11	13	25%	9%	74	-0.0
●Edouard Julien 2022 · A	23	46→54	51→50	54→50	53	213/328/379	166	343	18	20	38%	14%	104	+2.0	233/339/388	155	354	18	14	34%	13%	110	+2.4	230/339/379	149	341	18	11	34%	13%	105	+1.9
●Ian Stewart 2006 · A	21	45→52	50→60	46→45	43	226/288/390	164	303	17	4	30%	7%	89	+0.9	237/299/396	159	311	15	6	27%	7%	95	+1.4	239/315/432	193	304	23	9	28%	9%	108	+2.0
●Brett Baty 2022 · AA	22	53→58	49→55	46→45	44	254/319/405	152	356	16	8	32%	8%	105	+2.1	251/316/422	171	330	23	5	29%	8%	109	+2.4	240/310/409	169	304	24	3	28%	8%	99	+1.3
✕Brett Jackson 2010 · A	21	48→49	50	56→55	39	235/298/387	152	337	17	17	34%	6%	92	+1.2	220/295/371	151	329	15	20	35%	9%	86	+0.8	208/288/369	161	319	16	21	37%	9%	81	+0.4
●Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	43→53	51→55	45→50	48	223/303/383	161	292	19	5	30%	10%	94	+1.3	207/305/377	170	279	21	9	31%	11%	94	+1.3	261/339/417	156	319	16	5	22%	10%	113	+1.9
✕Jimmy Crooks 2023 · A	22	48→44	48→50	51→40	42	230/313/377	147	338	15	6	34%	8%	96	+1.5	227/289/349	122	326	12	4	32%	7%	79	+0.3	231/302/379	147	332	18	2	34%	8%	89	+0.6
✕Eddys Leonard 2022 · A	21	47	52→55	48→50	42	235/304/400	166	319	19	7	31%	7%	98	+1.6	224/287/375	151	290	17	6	28%	6%	85	+0.7	216/269/391	176	255	23	12	26%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Trey Sweeney 2022 · A	22	43	50	53→55	45	220/289/382	163	296	17	9	31%	8%	87	+0.8	209/284/358	149	274	16	19	29%	9%	79	+0.3	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
●Jordan Walker 2023 · AA	21	54→57	51→55	54→50	42	264/319/433	169	348	17	16	28%	6%	112	+2.6	242/302/390	148	314	16	11	27%	7%	94	+1.3	235/293/388	153	306	18	12	28%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Heriberto Hernández 2021 · A	21	46→49	51→60	46→50	45	228/304/400	172	318	18	6	32%	9%	98	+1.6	207/286/350	143	335	16	6	40%	9%	78	+0.2	221/302/428	208	278	28	9	31%	9%	103	+1.2
✕Addison Russell 2015 · AA	21	47→52	50→55	52→50	44	239/300/400	161	302	18	13	26%	7%	96	+1.5	239/305/397	158	301	17	7	25%	8%	98	+1.6	237/308/399	162	294	18	5	25%	8%	94	+1.1
✕Anthony Volpe 2022 · A	21	44→49	57→55	55	51	232/327/444	212	287	23	20	27%	10%	120	+3.1	219/291/384	165	274	18	27	26%	8%	89	+1.0	218/283/366	148	271	15	29	25%	7%	78	+0.3
✕Marcelo Mayer 2023 · A	20	47→45	49→50	55→50	44	220/297/373	153	342	16	13	38%	10%	89	+0.9	219/274/366	147	296	16	12	30%	7%	76	+0.1	231/283/364	133	283	15	10	23%	6%	77	+0.1
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	46→49	52→60	48→50	46	235/306/406	171	300	20	12	28%	8%	101	+1.8	230/301/408	178	293	21	10	28%	7%	99	+1.7	237/310/439	202	292	25	12	27%	7%	107	+1.7
●Eddie Rosario 2013 · A	21	50→56	50→60	48→50	43	253/293/411	158	306	17	12	23%	6%	95	+1.4	244/277/387	143	307	13	10	24%	4%	82	+0.5	280/315/487	207	298	28	7	17%	5%	122	+3.2
●Scott Moore 2006 · A	22	46→51	49→55	50	40	225/286/377	151	329	17	15	35%	7%	85	+0.7	224/286/384	160	304	19	9	31%	7%	87	+0.8	235/301/375	139	291	15	5	24%	7%	87	+0.6