Marcelo Mayer — OGILVIE

Marcelo Mayer3B Boston Red Sox

Age 23 L/R 6'3" / 188 lbs MLB H +3% Svc 0.744 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION228 act + 152 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL -667vR 95

AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .291 / .371

PA152

HR4

K%23

BB%7

BABIP284

ISO136

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

905.2%

xwOBA

100.262

POWER60

Barrel%

437.3

Avg EV

3087.6

Bat Spd

7373.7

EYE50

Chase%

9012.1%

SPEED45

Sprint

4727.4

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 203 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

176

—

wRC+

-1

▶▶R

wOBA

184

307

▶▶R

ISO

077

162

▶▶R

BABIP

250

302

▶▶R

37.0%

25.0%

▶▶R

BB%

3.7%

7.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.744 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$12M	+$11M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.9	$12M	+$9M
2030	Arb-2	$7M	+1.9	$11M	+$7M
2031	Arb-3	$10M	+1.7	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$24M		$54M	+$39M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	107	98	20	3	1	2	9	39	0	7	1	204	271	316	587	112	316	36	8	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	107	91	25	4	1	3	15	27	0	7	1	275	374	440	813	165	361	25	14	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	424	374	80	24	1	12	44	163	3	17	0	214	302	380	681	166	337	38	10	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	424	350	98	30	2	13	68	107	3	17	0	280	401	489	890	209	365	25	16	392	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA	2 teams	—	354	327	60	13	2	11	20	115	2	9	5	183	235	336	571	153	238	32	6	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA	2 teams	—	354	314	74	19	2	13	32	86	2	9	5	236	309	433	743	197	277	24	9	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	335	311	80	19	0	7	19	80	2	13	2	257	304	386	690	129	322	24	6	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	335	300	92	28	0	8	30	66	2	13	2	307	373	480	853	173	367	20	9	375	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA	2 teams	—	329	305	67	11	2	12	20	85	1	2	2	220	270	387	657	167	261	26	6	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA	2 teams	—	329	297	75	13	2	13	28	79	1	2	2	253	319	441	760	189	298	24	9	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	MLB	BOS	—	228	206	45	10	0	3	16	44	3	3	0	218	284	311	595	92	259	19	7	266	62	-10	+1	+1	+1	+6	-0.1
YTD	23	MLB	BOS	—	228	205	45	10	0	3	16	44	3	3	0	220	284	312	597	93	261	19	7	269	64	-9	+1	+1	+1	+6	0.0
ROS	23	MLB	BOS	100%	152	140	33	7	0	4	10	35	1	2	0	236	291	371	663	136	281	23	7	293	82	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.3
ROS	23	MLB	BOS	100%	152	140	33	7	0	4	10	35	1	2	0	236	291	371	663	136	288	23	7	291	81	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.2
FULL	23	MLB	BOS	—	380	346	78	17	0	7	26	79	4	5	0	225	287	335	622	110	269	21	7	276	70	-13	+1	+2	+1	+11	0.2
TOT	23	MLB	BOS	—	380	346	78	17	0	7	26	79	4	5	0	225	287	335	622	110	269	21	7	277	70	-13	+1	+2	+1	+11	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	BOS	92%	480	440	105	21	2	14	33	109	4	6	1	239	298	391	689	152	283	23	7	304	91	-5	+1	+1	+2	+14	1.3
2028	25	MLB	BOS	92%	492	450	109	21	2	16	35	111	4	7	1	242	303	404	707	162	283	23	7	312	97	-2	+1	+1	+2	+14	1.7
2029	26	MLB	BOS	92%	497	454	110	21	2	17	35	112	5	7	1	242	304	410	713	167	284	23	7	317	101	+0	+1	+1	+2	+14	1.9
2030	27	MLB	BOS	92%	492	448	109	21	2	17	36	111	5	7	1	243	307	413	720	170	283	23	7	317	101	+0	+1	+1	+2	+14	1.9
2031	28	MLB	BOS	92%	484	442	106	20	1	17	35	110	4	6	1	240	301	405	706	165	283	23	7	316	100	-0	+1	+1	+2	+14	1.7
2032	29	MLB	BOS	92%	472	430	103	20	1	16	35	108	4	6	1	240	303	402	705	163	282	23	7	314	98	-1	+1	-0	+2	+13	1.5
2033	30	MLB	BOS	92%	460	419	99	19	1	15	34	107	4	5	1	236	300	394	694	158	281	23	7	311	96	-2	+1	-1	+2	+13	1.3
2034	31	MLB	BOS	92%	445	405	95	18	1	15	33	104	4	4	1	235	299	395	694	160	278	23	7	307	93	-4	+0	-2	+2	+13	1.0
2035	32	MLB	BOS	92%	426	388	89	17	1	13	31	102	4	3	1	229	293	379	672	149	275	24	7	301	88	-6	+0	-2	+2	+12	0.6
2036	33	MLB	BOS	92%	396	361	82	15	1	12	29	97	3	2	0	227	290	374	664	147	271	24	7	294	83	-8	+0	-3	+1	+11	0.2
2037	34	MLB	BOS	88%	351	320	70	12	1	10	25	88	3	2	0	219	282	356	638	138	264	25	7	284	76	-10	+0	-4	+1	+10	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	BOS	92%	442	404	98	20	1	13	31	100	4	6	1	243	303	394	697	151	290	23	7	303	90	-5	+1	+1	+2	+13	1.1
2028	25	MLB	BOS	92%	453	414	102	21	1	15	32	102	4	6	1	246	307	411	717	164	290	23	7	310	96	-2	+1	+1	+2	+13	1.5
2029	26	MLB	BOS	92%	457	418	104	21	1	16	32	103	4	6	1	249	308	419	727	170	291	23	7	315	99	-0	+1	+1	+2	+13	1.7
2030	27	MLB	BOS	92%	453	413	102	20	1	16	33	102	4	6	1	247	309	416	725	169	290	23	7	315	99	-0	+1	+1	+2	+13	1.6
2031	28	MLB	BOS	92%	445	405	99	20	1	15	33	101	4	6	1	244	308	410	718	165	290	23	7	314	99	-1	+1	+1	+2	+13	1.5
2032	29	MLB	BOS	92%	434	395	97	19	1	15	32	99	4	5	1	246	309	413	721	167	289	23	7	312	97	-1	+1	-0	+2	+12	1.3
2033	30	MLB	BOS	92%	423	385	93	18	1	14	31	98	4	5	1	242	305	403	707	161	288	23	7	309	95	-2	+1	-1	+2	+12	1.1
2034	31	MLB	BOS	92%	409	372	89	18	1	13	30	96	4	4	1	239	303	398	701	159	285	23	7	305	92	-4	+0	-1	+1	+12	0.8
2035	32	MLB	BOS	92%	392	357	83	16	1	12	29	94	3	3	1	232	296	384	679	151	281	24	7	299	87	-6	+0	-2	+1	+11	0.5
2036	33	MLB	BOS	92%	364	331	76	14	1	11	27	89	3	2	0	230	294	378	671	148	277	24	7	292	82	-7	+0	-3	+1	+10	0.2
2037	34	MLB	BOS	88%	307	280	62	11	1	9	22	77	2	1	0	221	283	364	647	143	271	25	7	283	75	-9	+0	-3	+1	+9	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4867	4441	1067	213	12	157	350	1137	41	52	11	240	302	400	701	159	287	23	7	306	92	-44	+6	-2	+18	+138	11.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	142	28	2	21	47	152	5	7	1	239	300	400	700	160	286	23	7	306	92	-6	+1	-0	+2	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	6696	6112	1417	282	21	210	483	1676	53	105	19	232	294	388	682	156	283	25	7	302	89	-83	+13	-3	+24	+190	14.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	137	27	2	20	47	163	5	10	2	231	293	384	678	153	283	25	7	302	89	-8	+1	-0	+2	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	107	91	25	4	1	3	15	27	0	7	1	275	374	440	813	165	361	25	14	363	136	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.9
2022	19	A+	Greenville Drive	—	116	98	26	4	1	4	17	29	1	1	0	265	379	449	828	184	338	25	15	371	142	+6	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2022	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	308	252	72	26	1	9	51	78	2	16	0	286	410	504	914	218	375	25	17	401	165	+22	+3	—	—	+9	3.5
2023	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	190	169	32	8	1	6	15	49	1	4	3	189	258	355	613	166	220	26	8	268	63	-8	-0	—	—	+5	-0.3
2023	20	A+	Greenville Drive	—	164	145	42	11	1	7	17	37	1	5	2	290	368	524	892	234	343	23	10	389	155	+10	+0	—	—	+5	1.5
2024	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	335	300	92	28	0	8	30	66	2	13	2	307	373	480	853	173	367	20	9	375	145	+17	+2	—	—	+9	2.9
2025	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	136	127	29	8	1	4	8	41	0	0	2	228	274	402	676	173	301	30	6	296	85	-2	-1	+3	+1	+4	0.5
2025	22	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	193	170	46	5	1	9	20	38	1	2	0	271	351	471	821	200	296	20	10	360	134	+7	+0	—	—	+5	1.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	136	127	29	8	1	4	8	41	0	0	2	228	274	402	676	173	301	30	6	296	85	-2	-1	+3	+1	+4	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Ingelast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,617 PA	13	5,617	152	45	233	301	384	+26	+73	19.8	20.5
	/162	664	18	5	233	301	384	+3.1	+8.6	2.3	pk7: 21
#2Kevin Pillarlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,353 PA	11	4,353	114	108	256	294	407	+9	+16	12.6	12.4
	/162	664	17	16	256	294	407	+1.4	+2.5	1.9	pk7: 12
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#4Geoff Blumlast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,208 PA	12	4,208	91	18	251	310	382	+6	+31	12.1	11.2
	/162	664	14	3	251	310	382	+1.0	+4.8	1.9	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	5,294	166	58	237	295	393	+19	+28	11.8	10.6
	/162	664	21	7	237	295	393	+2.4	+3.5	1.5	pk7: 9
#5Maikel Francolast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,573 PA	9	3,573	130	5	244	293	414	+13	-5	9.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	1	244	293	414	+2.4	-1.0	1.7	pk7: 10
#6Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marcelo Mayer (OGILVIE)	23	55	60	45	50	225/287/335	110	269	7	5	21%	7%	70	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alek Thomas 2023 · MLB	23	48→51	47→50	48→50	46	241/296/385	145	289	14	11	22%	7%	90	+1.0	235/282/369	134	285	13	11	22%	5%	80	+0.4	234/278/362	128	287	13	11	23%	5%	74	-0.0
●Lonnie Chisenhall 2012 · MLB	23	46→56	49→55	47→45	43	234/283/381	147	274	16	3	22%	5%	84	+0.6	252/301/406	154	295	17	5	20%	6%	98	+1.6	264/318/425	161	306	17	4	19%	6%	107	+1.6
●Luis Valbuena 2010 · MLB	24	51→55	47→60	45→50	49	252/306/391	139	294	13	10	19%	7%	95	+1.4	232/296/355	123	286	12	6	22%	8%	82	+0.5	236/328/425	190	272	22	1	22%	12%	110	+1.9
●Ian Stewart 2008 · MLB	23	49→52	47→60	46→45	43	242/297/388	146	312	14	7	26%	6%	92	+1.2	236/313/425	189	300	22	8	28%	9%	108	+2.3	227/315/427	200	283	25	7	28%	10%	103	+1.7
●Luis García Jr. 2023 · MLB	23	53→57	50→60	43→50	42	267/300/427	160	311	17	6	21%	5%	103	+1.9	264/302/407	143	296	15	14	16%	5%	98	+1.6	269/307/454	185	287	24	17	16%	5%	110	+1.9
✕Ryan McMahon 2018 · MLB	23	51→57	48→55	47→45	41	249/297/398	149	337	14	9	30%	6%	94	+1.3	223/286/367	144	305	16	7	30%	8%	82	+0.5	209/295/353	144	270	17	6	28%	10%	80	+0.3
✕Jason Martin 2019 · AAA	23	45→49	49→60	47→50	41	228/277/380	152	302	16	12	30%	6%	81	+0.4	229/280/379	150	286	16	12	25%	6%	82	+0.5	220/286/421	201	269	27	8	29%	8%	94	+0.8
✕Daniel Descalso 2010 · AAA	23	51→55	44→50	45	47	248/300/372	125	283	10	6	16%	6%	89	+0.9	247/307/352	105	289	6	7	16%	7%	86	+0.8	228/334/386	157	282	15	4	23%	13%	103	+1.2
●Rougned Odor 2016 · MLB	22	50→52	50→60	49→50	44	252/301/416	164	283	16	11	17%	5%	101	+1.8	243/289/438	195	275	25	12	22%	5%	102	+1.8	237/286/431	195	270	26	14	23%	5%	96	+1.4
✕Dilson Herrera 2017 · MLB	23	50→57	49→50	45→50	44	250/299/397	146	301	17	12	23%	6%	95	+1.4	221/273/368	147	286	18	8	29%	6%	77	+0.1	202/260/358	156	264	21	7	31%	6%	66	-0.4
✕Kirk Nieuwenhuis 2011 · AAA	23	47→50	48→60	48→50	40	233/283/386	153	319	14	11	31%	6%	85	+0.7	231/291/373	142	325	14	10	31%	7%	85	+0.7	219/300/412	193	303	21	11	33%	10%	95	+0.8
✕Matt Thaiss 2019 · AAA	24	46→50	45→55	46→45	45	227/279/354	127	279	12	7	23%	6%	75	-0.0	224/293/384	160	275	19	5	25%	9%	89	+1.0	224/303/389	165	274	20	4	25%	9%	92	+0.9
●Nomar Mazara 2018 · MLB	23	50→51	51→55	40	49	252/316/408	156	292	19	3	21%	8%	105	+2.1	254/314/423	169	303	20	4	22%	7%	108	+2.3	253/312/420	168	304	20	3	23%	7%	103	+1.2
✕Caleb Gindl 2012 · AAA	23	51→55	45→50	45→50	50	250/313/375	124	303	12	9	21%	8%	95	+1.4	228/283/359	131	288	13	5	24%	7%	78	+0.2	244/288/382	138	296	13	1	22%	6%	83	+0.3
●Luis Urías 2020 · MLB	23	48→58	47→55	47→45	48	237/314/374	137	295	14	6	24%	8%	95	+1.4	241/325/402	161	291	19	6	23%	9%	108	+2.3	232/333/399	167	273	21	3	22%	11%	108	+1.7
●Alex Kirilloff 2022 · MLB	24	48→58	49→55	44→45	44	245/294/392	147	292	17	7	23%	6%	92	+1.2	262/327/442	180	315	23	5	24%	7%	118	+3.0	260/331/443	183	315	23	2	24%	8%	117	+1.5
✕Blake DeWitt 2009 · MLB	23	50→55	46→50	45→40	49	249/304/381	132	283	14	5	18%	7%	92	+1.2	243/307/370	127	278	10	4	16%	8%	91	+1.1	241/307/369	128	275	9	3	15%	8%	84	+0.4
✕Chris Lubanski 2008 · AAA	23	46→49	50→55	44→45	44	232/284/390	158	288	17	7	26%	7%	86	+0.8	209/260/351	142	289	15	8	31%	7%	66	-0.6	195/248/338	143	274	15	8	34%	7%	56	-0.7
✕Cheslor Cuthbert 2017 · MLB	24	52→57	47→50	46→45	46	256/301/391	135	296	14	5	19%	6%	93	+1.3	245/296/388	143	292	16	3	21%	6%	91	+1.1	233/285/373	140	282	16	1	23%	6%	81	+0.2
●Lars Nootbaar 2022 · MLB	24	47→53	49→55	42→50	49	239/303/381	143	282	18	8	22%	8%	92	+1.2	241/336/421	180	284	21	10	22%	12%	117	+2.9	238/343/417	178	278	20	10	21%	13%	115	+2.2