Marcelo Mayer

2B San Francisco Giants

Age 24 L/R 6'3" / 188 lbs MLB HR -15%H -3% Svc 1.744 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	AABOS	335	.307/.373/.480	8	13	105	—	.278/.328/.408
2025	22	AAABOS	193	.271/.351/.471	9	2	85	—	.232/.288/.384
2025	22	MLBBOS	136	.228/.274/.402	4	0	82	0.3
2026	23	MLBSF	245	.209/.277/.295	3	3	65	-0.2
2027PROJ	24	MLBSF	204	.236/.300/.366	4	3	92	0.4
2028PROJ82% MLB	25	MLBSF	226	.240/.304/.382	6	3	97	0.6
2029PROJ82% MLB	26	MLBSF	260	.242/.306/.392	7	3	101	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.744First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$3M2030Arb-2$5M2031Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026

Bat Spd73

Speed46

Barrel%44

Avg EV29

xwOBA10

CompsLuis García Jr. (age 24) · Cody Asche (age 25) · Luis Urías (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7192vR 100

AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .300 / .366

PA204

HR4

K%24

BB%7

BABIP293

ISO124

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

100.203

POWER60

Barrel%

447.4

Avg EV

2987.5

Bat Spd

7373.7

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

4627.3

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 203 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

176

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

184

307

▶▶R

ISO

077

162

▶▶R

BABIP

250

302

▶▶R

37.0%

25.0%

▶▶R

BB%

3.7%

7.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.744 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.5M
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$12M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	107	91	25	4	1	3	15	27	0	7	1	275	374	440	813	165	361	25	14	363	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A+	Greenville Drive	—	116	98	26	4	1	4	17	29	1	1	0	265	379	449	828	184	338	25	15	371	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	308	252	72	26	1	9	51	78	2	16	0	286	410	504	914	218	375	25	17	401	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	190	169	32	8	1	6	15	49	1	4	3	189	258	355	613	166	220	26	8	268	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Greenville Drive	—	164	145	42	11	1	7	17	37	1	5	2	290	368	524	892	234	343	23	10	389	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	335	300	92	28	0	8	30	66	2	13	2	307	373	480	853	173	367	20	9	375	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	136	127	29	8	1	4	8	41	0	0	2	228	274	402	676	173	301	30	6	296	82	-3	-1	+3	+1	+3	0.3
2025	22	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	193	170	46	5	1	9	20	38	1	2	0	271	351	471	821	200	296	20	10	360	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	245	220	46	10	0	3	18	51	3	3	0	209	277	295	572	86	254	21	7	260	65	-10	+1	+1	+1	+5	-0.2
2026	23	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	19	17	6	1	0	1	2	9	0	0	0	353	421	588	1.009	235	714	47	11	441	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	381	347	75	18	1	7	26	92	3	3	2	216	276	334	610	118	270	24	7	273	71	-13	-0	+4	+2	+8	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	107	98	20	3	1	2	9	39	0	7	1	204	271	316	587	112	303	36	8	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	116	105	24	3	1	4	10	36	1	1	0	229	302	390	692	162	311	31	9	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	308	267	60	21	1	8	36	114	2	16	0	225	321	401	722	176	343	37	12	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	190	174	29	6	1	5	11	60	1	4	3	167	220	299	519	132	208	32	6	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	164	152	35	8	1	7	10	49	1	5	2	230	282	434	716	204	284	30	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	335	309	86	22	0	6	21	78	2	13	2	278	328	408	736	129	346	23	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	136	127	28	7	1	4	8	41	0	0	2	220	267	386	652	165	301	30	6	289	82	-3	-1	+3	+1	+3	0.3
2025	22	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	193	177	41	4	1	7	13	45	1	2	0	232	288	384	672	153	265	23	7	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	245	221	47	10	0	3	18	51	3	3	0	213	281	299	580	86	254	21	7	264	65	-10	+1	+1	+1	+5	-0.2
2026	23	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	19	18	5	1	0	1	1	11	0	0	0	278	316	500	816	222	656	58	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	107	98	20	3	1	2	9	39	0	7	1	204	271	316	587	112	316	36	8	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	107	91	25	4	1	3	15	27	0	7	1	275	374	440	813	165	361	25	14	363	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	424	372	84	25	2	11	46	150	3	17	0	226	316	392	708	167	341	35	11	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	424	350	98	30	2	13	68	107	3	17	0	280	401	489	890	209	365	25	16	392	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	354	326	63	14	2	11	21	109	2	9	5	193	246	350	596	156	246	31	6	259	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	354	314	74	19	2	13	32	86	2	9	5	236	309	433	743	197	277	24	9	324	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	335	309	86	22	0	6	21	78	2	13	2	278	328	408	736	129	351	23	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	335	300	92	28	0	8	30	66	2	13	2	307	373	480	853	173	367	20	9	375	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	304	70	12	2	11	21	86	1	2	2	230	282	391	674	161	281	26	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	329	297	75	13	2	13	28	79	1	2	2	253	319	441	760	189	298	24	9	334	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	264	239	52	11	0	4	19	62	3	3	0	218	284	314	597	96	273	23	7	268	67	-10	+1	+1	+1	+6	-0.2
2026	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	264	237	52	11	0	4	20	60	3	3	0	219	287	316	604	97	273	23	8	273	67	-10	+1	+1	+1	+6	-0.2
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	107	97	20	3	1	2	9	39	0	7	1	206	271	320	591	113	303	36	8	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	424	372	84	25	2	11	46	150	3	17	0	226	316	392	708	167	334	35	11	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	354	328	63	14	2	11	21	109	2	9	5	192	246	348	594	155	243	31	6	259	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	335	309	86	22	0	6	21	78	2	13	2	278	328	408	736	129	346	23	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	304	70	12	2	11	21	86	1	2	2	230	282	391	674	161	280	26	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	264	240	52	11	0	4	19	62	3	3	0	217	284	312	596	96	283	23	7	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	335	309	86	22	0	6	21	78	2	13	2	278	328	408	736	129	346	23	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	304	70	12	2	11	21	86	1	2	2	230	282	391	674	161	280	26	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	264	240	52	11	0	4	19	62	3	3	0	217	284	312	596	96	283	23	7	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	100%	314	285	68	14	1	7	23	74	3	4	1	240	304	376	680	136	297	24	7	304	92	-3	+0	+2	+1	+7	0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	100%	204	185	43	9	1	4	15	48	2	3	1	236	300	366	666	130	293	24	7	298	92	-2	+0	+1	+1	+4	0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	82%	276	251	61	12	1	8	21	65	2	3	1	244	308	393	701	149	297	24	8	312	97	-1	+0	+1	+1	+6	0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	82%	317	287	71	14	1	10	24	75	3	4	1	246	311	404	715	158	298	24	8	317	101	+0	+0	+2	+1	+7	1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	82%	324	293	72	14	1	10	25	77	3	4	1	245	310	401	711	156	297	24	8	315	100	-0	+0	+2	+1	+7	1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	SF	82%	325	294	72	14	1	10	25	78	3	3	1	243	307	396	704	153	296	24	8	313	98	-1	+0	+1	+1	+7	0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	SF	82%	315	286	69	14	1	9	24	76	2	2	1	241	304	390	694	149	294	24	8	309	95	-2	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	SF	82%	306	278	66	13	1	8	23	75	2	1	1	238	301	382	682	144	292	25	8	304	92	-3	-0	-1	+1	+7	0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	SF	82%	287	262	62	12	1	8	21	72	2	0	0	233	296	372	667	138	289	25	7	298	88	-4	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	82%	226	205	49	10	1	6	17	53	2	3	1	240	304	382	686	142	293	23	8	306	97	-1	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	82%	260	236	57	12	1	7	20	61	2	3	1	242	306	392	698	150	293	23	8	310	101	+0	+0	+1	+1	+6	0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	82%	266	242	58	12	1	7	20	63	2	3	1	241	305	389	694	149	293	24	8	309	100	-0	+0	+1	+1	+6	0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	SF	82%	266	242	58	12	1	7	20	64	2	2	1	239	303	385	688	146	292	24	8	306	98	-1	+0	+1	+1	+6	0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	SF	82%	258	235	56	11	1	7	19	63	2	1	1	236	300	378	679	142	290	24	7	302	95	-2	-0	+0	+1	+6	0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	SF	82%	251	228	53	11	1	6	19	62	2	0	0	233	297	371	667	137	288	25	8	298	92	-2	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	SF	82%	235	214	50	10	1	6	17	59	2	0	0	229	292	361	652	132	285	25	7	292	88	-3	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2143	1949	456	96	8	53	158	517	17	15	7	234	297	373	670	139	290	24	7	298	90	-22	+0	+7	+8	+46	4.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	138	29	2	16	48	157	5	5	2	234	296	371	667	137	290	24	7	298	90	-7	+0	+2	+3	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4167	3784	893	189	15	113	315	1090	30	71	17	236	300	383	683	147	299	26	8	301	90	-26	+1	+9	+11	+59	5.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	139	29	2	18	49	170	5	11	3	236	300	383	683	147	297	26	8	301	90	-6	+0	+2	+3	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 19 PAwOBA .429 → .318 (−110)K% 47.4% → 56.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	47.37%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	56.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.61%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	50.00%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.048	48.73%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.048	10.87%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.048	9.17%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .429 → .318; ISO .235 → .152; BABIP .714 → .656. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 193 PAwOBA .352 → .294 (−58)K% 19.7% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.69%	÷1.013	×1.200	—	—	23.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.84%	÷1.042	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.84%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.51%
Singles /BIP	23.48%	÷1.060	×0.930	×0.994	×1.050	21.50%
Doubles /BIP	3.79%	÷0.991	×0.830	×0.994	×1.050	3.31%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.994	×1.050	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	6.82%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×1.050	5.09%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .352 → .294; ISO .200 → .158; BABIP .296 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 335 PAwOBA .367 → .323 (−45)K% 19.7% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.70%	÷1.033	×1.220	—	—	23.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.66%	÷1.025	×0.700	—	×1.042	6.16%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.53%
Singles /BIP	23.93%	÷1.004	×0.970	×1.025	×1.042	24.69%
Doubles /BIP	11.97%	÷1.165	×0.860	×1.025	×1.042	9.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.025	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.42%	÷1.018	×0.780	—	×1.042	2.73%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .367 → .323; ISO .173 → .138; BABIP .367 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 190 PAwOBA .267 → .225 (−42)K% 25.8% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.79%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	31.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.89%	÷1.032	×0.700	—	×1.050	5.62%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.47%
Singles /BIP	14.17%	÷0.972	×0.970	×0.983	×1.050	14.59%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.144	×0.860	×0.983	×1.050	5.17%
Triples /BIP	0.83%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.983	×1.050	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.048	×0.780	—	×1.050	3.91%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .267 → .225; ISO .166 → .131; BABIP .220 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greenville Drive · 164 PAwOBA .380 → .299 (−81)K% 22.6% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.56%	÷0.981	×1.310	—	—	30.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.37%	÷1.028	×0.600	—	×1.027	6.21%
HBP% /PA	0.61%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	0.48%
Singles /BIP	21.30%	÷1.053	×0.870	×1.009	×1.027	18.23%
Doubles /BIP	10.19%	÷1.033	×0.780	×1.009	×1.027	7.97%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.150	×0.850	×1.009	×1.027	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	6.48%	÷0.931	×0.880	—	×1.027	6.29%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .380 → .299; ISO .234 → .202; BABIP .343 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASalem Red Sox · 308 PAwOBA .392 → .315 (−78)K% 25.3% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.32%	÷0.930	×1.360	—	—	37.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.91%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×1.030	11.69%
HBP% /PA	0.65%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.52%
Singles /BIP	20.69%	÷1.026	×0.920	×1.007	×1.030	19.24%
Doubles /BIP	14.94%	÷0.950	×0.830	×1.007	×1.030	13.54%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷1.106	×0.910	×1.007	×1.030	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	5.17%	÷0.873	×0.800	—	×1.030	4.88%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .392 → .315; ISO .218 → .181; BABIP .375 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 116 PAwOBA .359 → .302 (−57)K% 25.0% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.059	×1.310	—	—	30.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.79%	÷1.001	×0.600	—	×1.042	8.62%
HBP% /PA	0.86%	—	×0.770	—	×1.042	0.69%
Singles /BIP	24.64%	÷1.005	×0.870	×1.050	×1.042	23.35%
Doubles /BIP	5.80%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.050	×1.042	4.95%
Triples /BIP	1.45%	÷1.150	×0.850	×1.050	×1.042	1.17%
Home runs /BIP	5.80%	÷0.996	×0.880	—	×1.042	5.34%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .359 → .302; ISO .184 → .165; BABIP .338 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Red Sox · 107 PAwOBA .354 → .258 (−96)K% 25.2% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.23%	÷0.999	×1.440	—	—	36.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.02%	÷0.997	×0.620	—	×1.008	8.79%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.56%	÷0.980	×0.820	×1.041	×1.008	23.32%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.029	×0.720	×1.041	×1.008	4.59%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷0.951	×0.720	×1.041	×1.008	1.24%
Home runs /BIP	4.69%	÷0.951	×0.780	—	×1.008	3.87%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 90, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.

Result: wOBA .354 → .258; ISO .165 → .120; BABIP .361 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Tim Hulett'83-'95 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,316 PA	3.5	2,316	48	14	245*	295*	384*	+5	+31	5.0	5.8
/162	664	14	4	+1.5	+8.9	1.4	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	3.5	2,348	63	19	238	298	382	+8	+19	5.0	4.9
/162	664	18	5	+2.4	+5.4	1.4	pk7: 5
#3Ed Spiezio'64-'72 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	39	16	238*	304*	389*	+5	+8	4.7	4.9
/162	664	15	6	+1.9	+3.3	1.8	pk7: 5
#4Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	2.3	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
/162	664	9	8	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#5Pat Kelly'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,235 PA	3.4	2,235	36	61	242*	299*	375*	+6	+11	3.7	3.8
/162	664	11	18	+1.7	+3.2	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marcelo Mayer (OGILVIE)	24	55	60	45	50	238/302/373	134	297	5	3	24%	7%	92	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Luis García Jr. 2024 · MLB	24	53→57	46→60	48→50	45	263/300/399	136	298	13	8	17%	5%	95	+1.0	265/302/428	163	292	19	15	16%	5%	103	+1.6	267/302/451	184	288	23	15	17%	5%	110	+1.8
✕Cody Asche 2015 · MLB	25	52→58	47→50	47→45	44	255/302/397	142	317	14	6	24%	6%	96	+1.0	234/288/377	143	295	15	5	25%	7%	87	+0.4	224/283/364	140	283	16	4	26%	7%	82	-0.0
●Luis Urías 2021 · MLB	24	49→59	47→55	46→45	48	241/319/380	139	306	14	7	25%	8%	99	+1.3	237/328/398	161	282	19	5	22%	10%	107	+1.9	228/328/385	157	271	19	3	22%	11%	105	+1.3
●Stephen Drew 2007 · MLB	24	52→57	51→55	47→45	46	263/309/435	172	302	18	6	20%	6%	107	+1.9	257/309/421	164	292	15	6	17%	7%	104	+1.6	268/323/446	179	301	15	6	16%	7%	116	+2.6
●Lonnie Chisenhall 2013 · MLB	24	50→57	48→55	46→45	43	250/296/397	147	291	16	4	20%	5%	95	+0.9	256/306/411	155	299	16	5	20%	6%	101	+1.4	276/329/444	168	320	16	7	18%	6%	118	+1.3
✕Danny Richar 2008 · MLB	25	52→60	48→55	49→50	47	261/307/415	155	298	14	9	18%	6%	102	+1.5	251/289/381	130	295	12	11	19%	5%	87	+0.4	275/309/376	101	327	8	14	18%	4%	91	+0.4
✕Brett Baty 2024 · MLB	24	50→59	51→50	42→45	45	250/315/406	156	327	20	5	29%	8%	103	+1.6	240/308/395	155	303	20	6	26%	8%	99	+1.2	239/311/392	153	299	20	6	26%	9%	99	+0.9
✕Kirk Nieuwenhuis 2013 · MLB	25	52→51	47→60	45→50	43	251/310/396	144	347	14	10	30%	8%	99	+1.2	223/288/388	165	305	18	10	31%	8%	90	+0.6	221/299/412	191	304	20	11	32%	9%	99	+0.7
✕Francisco Mejía 2020 · MLB	24	50→60	51→55	46→40	42	254/299/418	164	301	18	4	22%	5%	101	+1.4	242/293/397	155	287	16	4	21%	5%	93	+0.8	244/283/399	156	290	15	0	21%	4%	91	+0.3
●Khalil Greene 2004 · MLB	24	47→53	51→60	45	45	237/300/403	166	294	18	8	26%	7%	97	+1.1	254/315/425	171	290	18	6	18%	7%	108	+1.9	252/315/425	173	286	18	6	18%	7%	109	+1.7
✕Tirso Ornelas 2024 · AAA	24	52→57	45→50	44→45	48	252/315/377	125	318	12	7	24%	8%	97	+1.1	248/307/384	136	300	15	7	21%	7%	95	+1.0	239/298/376	137	284	15	6	21%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Reid Brignac 2010 · MLB	24	49→54	45→55	45→50	42	239/278/369	130	290	11	8	22%	5%	80	-0.1	227/272/334	107	283	10	7	23%	5%	70	-0.8	217/279/316	99	278	9	6	24%	7%	68	-0.6
✕Hank Conger 2011 · MLB	23	52→58	45→50	41→45	50	255/312/383	128	294	12	3	18%	8%	97	+1.1	239/294/373	134	281	15	3	20%	7%	88	+0.5	230/300/385	155	282	18	0	24%	8%	94	+0.4
✕Ryan Wheeler 2013 · MLB	25	53→57	46→50	46→40	42	262/303/399	136	323	14	4	23%	5%	97	+1.1	244/282/356	112	312	11	4	24%	5%	79	-0.2	238/273/334	95	307	9	2	25%	4%	69	-0.6
✕Blake DeWitt 2009 · MLB	23	51→53	46→50	46→40	48	251/301/383	132	284	14	5	18%	6%	93	+0.8	244/303/372	128	278	10	4	16%	7%	91	+0.6	242/303/370	128	275	9	3	15%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Matt Thaiss 2019 · AAA	24	48→51	45→55	46→45	46	235/290/363	128	288	11	7	22%	7%	84	+0.1	229/302/386	157	284	17	5	25%	9%	94	+0.9	229/309/386	157	283	18	4	25%	10%	95	+0.7
✕Ryan McMahon 2019 · MLB	24	51→61	48→55	48→45	41	249/299/397	148	336	14	8	29%	6%	95	+1.0	236/306/407	171	311	21	6	29%	9%	101	+1.4	232/313/397	165	299	19	6	28%	10%	103	+1.6
✕Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2009 · MLB	24	50→54	48→60	40	49	248/319/394	146	320	15	3	26%	9%	102	+1.5	232/294/394	162	306	19	3	29%	7%	93	+0.8	233/308/421	188	311	23	2	31%	10%	106	+1.3
✕Alek Thomas 2024 · MLB	24	50→57	47→50	52→50	45	247/296/389	141	293	14	11	21%	6%	92	+0.7	240/286/378	138	289	14	12	21%	6%	86	+0.3	241/287/384	143	290	14	13	22%	5%	87	+0.2
✕Shed Long Jr. 2020 · MLB	24	49→50	48→50	47→50	44	239/299/386	147	319	15	10	29%	7%	93	+0.8	221/284/357	136	302	14	10	30%	8%	80	-0.1	194/264/315	121	269	12	10	31%	8%	63	-0.3

Marcelo Mayer

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps