Marcelo Mayer — OGILVIE

Marcelo Mayer3B Boston Red Sox

Age 23 L/R 6'3" / 188 lbs MLB Svc 0.744 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.1 · 2029

wRC+†vL -583vR 97

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .287 / .391

PA350

HR11

SB5

K%27

BB%7

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

60→60

SPD

45→45

EYE

44↗50

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.9peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.744 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$13M	+$12M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$16M	+$15M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+2.1	$18M	+$14M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+2.1	$19M	+$11M
2031	Arb-3	$11M	+1.9	$18M	+$7M
Totals		$26M		$87M	+$61M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	107	98	20	2	1	3	9	39	0	7	1	.204	.271	.337	.608	.133	.304	36	8	.271	66	-4	+1	+0	+0	+3	0.0
2022	19	A	2 teams	424	377	83	24	1	12	41	152	3	17	0	.220	.302	.385	.686	.164	.329	36	10	.301	89	-5	+3	+0	+2	+12	1.2
2023	20	AA	2 teams	354	327	62	14	2	11	20	112	2	9	5	.190	.241	.346	.586	.156	.244	32	6	.253	52	-19	-0	+0	+1	+10	-0.8
2024	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	335	310	84	22	0	7	20	82	2	13	2	.271	.319	.410	.729	.139	.344	24	6	.314	98	-1	+2	+0	+1	+9	1.2
2025	22	AAA	2 teams	329	304	69	12	2	12	21	86	1	2	2	.227	.279	.398	.677	.171	.273	26	6	.292	82	-7	-0	+3	+1	+9	0.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	68	60	12	5	0	1	6	13	1	1	0	.200	.284	.333	.617	.133	.234	19	9	.274	68	-2	+0	+1	+0	+2	0.1
ROS	23	MLB	BOS	282	258	59	13	1	8	20	73	2	4	1	.229	.289	.380	.669	.151	.285	26	7	.299	87	-4	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.6
TOT	23	MLB	BOS	350	318	71	18	1	9	26	86	3	5	1	.223	.288	.371	.659	.148	.276	25	7	.294	83	-7	+1	+2	+1	+10	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB	BOS	480	439	103	22	2	16	35	109	3	7	1	.235	.296	.403	.699	.169	.274	23	7	.309	95	-3	+1	+1	+2	+14	1.5
2028	25	MLB	BOS	492	450	107	23	2	18	36	111	3	7	1	.238	.299	.418	.716	.180	.276	23	7	.316	100	+0	+1	+1	+2	+14	1.9
2029	26	MLB	BOS	497	453	109	23	2	19	38	112	3	7	1	.241	.304	.426	.730	.185	.277	23	8	.321	104	+2	+1	+1	+2	+14	2.1
2030	27	MLB	BOS	492	448	108	23	2	19	38	112	3	7	1	.241	.305	.429	.733	.187	.277	23	8	.321	104	+2	+1	+1	+2	+14	2.1
2031	28	MLB	BOS	484	440	105	22	2	18	38	111	3	6	1	.239	.304	.420	.724	.182	.277	23	8	.320	103	+2	+1	+1	+2	+14	1.9
2032	29	MLB	BOS	472	429	101	21	2	17	37	109	3	5	0	.235	.301	.413	.713	.177	.276	23	8	.318	101	+1	+1	-0	+2	+13	1.7
2033	30	MLB	BOS	460	418	99	21	2	17	36	108	3	4	0	.237	.302	.419	.721	.182	.275	23	8	.315	99	-0	+1	-1	+2	+13	1.5
2034	31	MLB	BOS	445	404	95	20	2	16	35	107	3	2	0	.235	.301	.413	.714	.178	.274	24	8	.311	96	-2	+0	-2	+2	+13	1.1
2035	32	MLB	BOS	426	388	90	19	2	15	33	104	2	0	0	.232	.296	.407	.703	.175	.272	24	8	.307	93	-3	+0	-2	+2	+12	0.8
2036	33	MLB	BOS	396	360	81	17	1	13	31	100	2	0	0	.225	.290	.386	.676	.161	.271	25	8	.301	89	-5	+0	-3	+1	+11	0.5
2037	34	MLB	BOS	351	319	70	14	1	11	27	91	2	0	0	.219	.284	.373	.658	.154	.269	26	8	.294	83	-7	+0	-4	+1	+10	0.1
2038	35	MLB	BOS	298	272	58	12	1	9	23	80	1	0	0	.213	.277	.364	.641	.151	.267	27	8	.286	77	-8	+0	-5	+1	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7124	6494	1503	324	28	241	538	1798	41	97	16	.231	.294	.401	.696	.170	.281	25	8	.306	92	-62	+13	-7	+25	+202	17.5
/ 162G	—			650	593	138	30	3	22	49	164	4	9	1	.233	.296	.405	.700	.172	.283	25	8	.306	92	-6	+1	-1	+2	+18	1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	107	91	25	4	1	3	15	27	0	7	1	.275	.374	.440	.813	.165	.361	25	14	.363	136	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.9
2022	19	A+	Greenville Drive	116	98	26	4	1	4	17	29	1	1	0	.265	.379	.449	.828	.184	.338	25	15	.371	142	+6	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2022	19	A	Salem Red Sox	308	252	72	26	1	9	51	78	2	16	0	.286	.410	.504	.914	.218	.375	25	17	.401	165	+22	+3	—	—	+9	3.5
2023	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	190	169	32	8	1	6	15	49	1	4	3	.189	.258	.355	.613	.166	.220	26	8	.268	63	-8	-0	—	—	+5	-0.3
2023	20	A+	Greenville Drive	164	145	42	11	1	7	17	37	1	5	2	.290	.368	.524	.892	.234	.343	23	10	.389	155	+10	+0	—	—	+5	1.5
2024	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	335	300	92	28	0	8	30	66	2	13	2	.307	.373	.480	.853	.173	.367	20	9	.375	145	+17	+2	—	—	+9	2.9
2025	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	136	127	29	8	1	4	8	41	0	0	2	.228	.274	.402	.676	.173	.301	30	6	.296	85	-2	-1	+3	+1	+4	0.5
2025	22	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	193	170	46	5	1	9	20	38	1	2	0	.271	.351	.471	.821	.200	.296	20	10	.360	134	+7	+0	—	—	+5	1.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			136	127	29	8	1	4	8	41	0	0	2	.228	.274	.402	.676	.173	.301	30	6	.296	85	-2	-1	+3	+1	+4	0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marcelo Mayer (OGILVIE)	23	55	60	45	50	.228/.286/.383	.155	.273	10	5	23%	7%	87	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Nomar Mazara 2018 · MLB	23	48→51	50→55	40	49	.245/.308/.395	.150	.284	18	3	21%	8%	98	+1.6	.250/.310/.414	.164	.297	20	4	22%	7%	105	+2.1	.251/.310/.413	.162	.302	20	3	23%	7%	98	+1.0
✕Gavin Lux 2021 · MLB	23	50→58	52→50	49→50	46	.252/.309/.420	.169	.311	19	10	25%	8%	105	+2.1	.250/.321/.374	.124	.316	11	8	23%	9%	98	+1.6	.263/.338/.380	.117	.334	8	5	22%	10%	103	+1.6
✕Luis García Jr. 2023 · MLB	23	53→57	50	43→50	42	.267/.301/.427	.159	.312	17	5	21%	5%	103	+1.9	.264/.301/.408	.144	.298	15	13	16%	5%	98	+1.6	.261/.301/.405	.144	.286	16	17	15%	5%	94	+1.2
●Lonnie Chisenhall 2012 · MLB	23	46→56	49→55	47→45	43	.234/.283/.381	.147	.274	17	3	22%	5%	84	+0.6	.252/.301/.405	.153	.295	16	5	20%	5%	98	+1.6	.267/.320/.428	.161	.310	17	4	19%	6%	110	+1.7
●Mike Moustakas 2012 · MLB	23	46→54	51→65	44→45	42	.239/.277/.399	.160	.268	19	5	19%	4%	86	+0.8	.237/.288/.389	.152	.267	17	4	18%	6%	89	+0.9	.258/.320/.491	.233	.260	33	2	16%	7%	121	+3.2
●Colby Rasmus 2010 · MLB	23	44→54	51→60	50	48	.230/.295/.391	.162	.266	19	11	22%	8%	92	+1.2	.245/.316/.425	.180	.297	21	9	24%	9%	110	+2.4	.237/.305/.454	.217	.309	28	3	32%	8%	109	+1.8
●Luis Valbuena 2010 · MLB	24	50→55	46→60	46→50	49	.248/.303/.386	.137	.291	13	10	20%	7%	93	+1.3	.233/.296/.358	.125	.284	12	7	22%	8%	83	+0.6	.236/.329/.431	.194	.271	23	1	22%	12%	109	+1.8
✕Dylan Carlson 2022 · MLB	23	49→53	52→55	48→50	47	.245/.317/.419	.174	.307	19	8	26%	8%	108	+2.3	.237/.318/.380	.143	.292	13	6	22%	9%	98	+1.6	.221/.309/.340	.119	.274	10	6	22%	9%	82	+0.3
✕Rougned Odor 2017 · MLB	23	48→53	55→60	46→50	42	.253/.292/.440	.187	.277	23	11	19%	4%	104	+2.0	.226/.281/.418	.192	.260	25	13	24%	6%	94	+1.3	.214/.288/.414	.199	.256	27	11	28%	8%	91	+0.8
✕Alek Thomas 2023 · MLB	23	49→52	48→50	48→50	46	.244/.299/.393	.149	.294	14	11	22%	7%	94	+1.3	.238/.286/.374	.136	.287	14	11	22%	6%	83	+0.6	.236/.280/.364	.128	.289	13	11	23%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	48→52	51→55	51→50	48	.244/.304/.405	.161	.281	19	12	21%	7%	99	+1.7	.220/.307/.378	.158	.261	16	11	22%	10%	94	+1.3	.211/.309/.373	.162	.247	16	10	21%	11%	91	+1.0
✕Travis Snider 2011 · MLB	23	48→53	54→55	43→50	44	.246/.305/.425	.179	.319	22	7	29%	8%	105	+2.1	.248/.304/.391	.143	.316	15	13	25%	7%	95	+1.4	.250/.320/.404	.154	.304	18	5	23%	9%	102	+1.2
●Ian Stewart 2008 · MLB	23	48→52	48→60	46→45	43	.238/.294/.386	.148	.308	14	7	27%	6%	90	+1.0	.239/.314/.427	.188	.306	22	8	28%	9%	109	+2.4	.234/.322/.438	.204	.293	25	7	28%	10%	108	+2.0
✕Maikel Franco 2016 · MLB	23	51→57	51→55	47→40	44	.260/.298/.429	.168	.287	19	4	17%	5%	102	+1.9	.250/.299/.416	.166	.270	21	3	16%	6%	100	+1.7	.246/.297/.413	.167	.258	23	1	15%	6%	91	+1.1
●Khalil Greene 2004 · MLB	24	47→54	51→60	46→45	46	.238/.302/.404	.166	.295	18	8	26%	7%	98	+1.6	.257/.326/.430	.173	.295	17	6	18%	8%	115	+2.7	.255/.324/.430	.175	.290	18	6	18%	8%	108	+1.9
●Lars Nootbaar 2022 · MLB	24	47→53	48→55	42→50	50	.236/.300/.368	.132	.277	17	7	21%	8%	88	+0.9	.240/.335/.421	.181	.282	21	10	22%	12%	116	+2.8	.237/.342/.416	.179	.277	20	10	21%	13%	114	+2.1
●Stephen Drew 2007 · MLB	24	51→57	51→55	47→45	47	.258/.307/.430	.172	.297	18	6	20%	7%	107	+2.2	.257/.314/.421	.164	.293	15	6	17%	8%	107	+2.2	.269/.330/.445	.176	.304	15	6	16%	8%	113	+2.7
✕Nick Weglarz 2011 · AAA	23	46→47	50	44→45	52	.231/.315/.391	.160	.281	17	6	24%	10%	101	+1.8	.211/.300/.357	.146	.304	16	5	33%	10%	86	+0.8	.179/.280/.310	.130	.287	15	2	39%	11%	64	-0.4
✕Jason Martin 2019 · AAA	23	44→50	49→60	47→50	41	.225/.273/.375	.150	.299	16	13	30%	6%	78	+0.2	.224/.273/.360	.136	.284	14	12	26%	6%	74	-0.1	.218/.285/.408	.191	.271	26	8	29%	8%	90	+0.7
●Travis Shaw 2013 · AA	23	45→53	51→60	49→45	46	.226/.299/.391	.166	.295	17	9	29%	8%	94	+1.3	.221/.290/.374	.153	.280	17	6	26%	8%	85	+0.7	.246/.330/.453	.207	.280	26	7	22%	11%	116	+2.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)