Tirso Ornelas — OGILVIE

Tirso OrnelasLF San Antonio Missions

Age 26 L/R 6'3" / 200 lbs AA HR -7% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION329 act + 219 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†97

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .304 / .399

PA219

HR6

K%22

BB%7

BABIP294

ISO155

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

906.5%

xwOBA

300.285

POWER45

Barrel%

518.3

Avg EV

7090.5

Bat Spd

6572.9

EYE45

Chase%

3734.3%

SPEED45

Sprint

3626.8

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	17	ROK	AZL Padres 2	—	238	212	41	8	2	2	24	88	1	0	0	193	278	278	557	85	317	37	10	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK	AZL Padres 2	—	238	196	54	11	3	3	40	61	1	0	0	276	401	408	809	133	383	26	17	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	355	323	65	9	3	5	26	93	3	5	1	201	267	294	561	93	263	26	7	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	355	309	78	13	3	8	40	68	3	5	1	252	344	392	735	139	297	19	11	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A+	2 teams	—	476	435	72	10	4	1	38	157	0	7	1	166	233	214	446	48	254	33	8	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A+	2 teams	—	476	420	91	13	5	1	53	113	0	7	1	217	304	279	583	62	291	24	11	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	20	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	51	44	12	3	1	0	7	10	0	1	2	273	373	386	759	114	353	20	14	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	20	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	51	44	12	3	1	0	7	10	0	1	2	273	373	386	759	114	353	20	14	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	2 teams	—	683	619	116	33	1	8	49	199	8	3	3	187	256	283	539	95	258	29	7	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	2 teams	—	683	601	172	47	3	9	67	128	8	3	3	286	365	419	785	133	347	19	10	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	3 teams	—	572	527	142	27	2	10	36	125	5	8	3	269	322	385	707	116	335	22	6	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	3 teams	—	572	513	147	33	2	8	50	99	5	8	3	287	356	405	761	119	341	17	9	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	800	705	184	34	2	26	77	204	10	11	8	261	342	426	768	165	328	26	10	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	800	687	189	41	2	20	95	157	10	11	8	275	371	428	799	153	327	20	12	356	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	745	685	157	24	2	21	47	168	6	16	6	229	285	362	647	133	270	23	6	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	745	651	192	35	3	30	81	114	6	16	6	295	378	496	874	201	315	15	11	383	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	3 teams	—	467	421	97	19	0	10	38	108	4	10	2	230	300	347	647	116	284	23	8	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	3 teams	—	467	404	110	25	0	10	55	78	4	10	2	272	365	408	773	136	313	17	12	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AA	SD	—	329	303	75	20	1	11	20	70	2	2	1	248	298	429	728	182	283	21	6	315	99	-0	+0	+0	-4	+9	0.6
YTD	26	AA	SD	—	329	290	80	22	1	12	33	54	2	2	1	276	354	483	837	207	298	16	10	365	137	+14	+0	+0	-4	+9	2.0
ROS	26	AA	SD	2%	219	200	49	11	1	6	15	49	2	2	1	245	304	399	703	155	290	22	7	313	97	-1	+0	-0	-2	+6	0.3
ROS	26	MLB	SD	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		286	25	0	303	90	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	26	AA	SD	—	333	307	76	20	1	11	20	71	2	2	1	248	298	427	725	179	284	21	6	315	99	-0	+0	-0	-4	+9	0.6
TOT	26	AA	SD	—	548	503	124	31	2	17	35	119	4	4	2	246	301	417	718	171	287	22	6	314	98	-1	+0	-0	-6	+16	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	SD	25%	623	569	139	30	2	19	45	139	4	6	2	244	304	404	708	160	288	22	7	312	97	-2	+0	-1	-7	+18	0.8
2028	28	MLB	SD	39%	611	557	135	29	2	18	45	137	4	5	2	242	304	399	702	156	288	22	7	312	97	-2	+0	-2	-7	+17	0.7
2027	27	MLB	SD	25%	153	140	32	7	0	4	11	34	1	1	1	229	289	364	654	136	284	22	7	302	89	-2	-0	-0	-2	+4	0.0
2028	28	MLB	SD	39%	236	215	52	11	1	7	17	53	2	2	1	242	303	400	703	158	284	22	7	302	89	-3	+0	-1	-3	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	409	373	86	18	1	11	30	90	3	3	2	231	293	373	666	142	274	22	7	296	84	-7	-0	-1	-9	+12	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	137	29	2	17	48	143	5	5	3	231	295	373	667	142	275	22	7	296	84	-11	-0	-1	-15	+18	-1.0
Career	—			—	5840	5297	1209	237	22	126	447	1477	47	74	31	228	294	353	647	124	290	25	8	282	74	-170	+2	-3	-63	+165	-6.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	134	26	2	14	50	164	5	8	3	227	293	349	642	122	288	25	8	282	74	-19	+0	-0	-7	+18	-0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	17	ROK	AZL Padres 2	—	238	196	54	11	3	3	40	61	1	0	0	276	401	408	809	133	383	26	17	367	139	+10	+0	—	—	+7	1.8
2018	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	355	309	78	13	3	8	40	68	3	5	1	252	344	392	735	139	297	19	11	330	111	+4	+1	—	—	+10	1.5
2019	19	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	379	332	73	11	5	1	44	91	0	3	1	220	311	292	603	72	296	24	12	279	72	-12	+0	—	—	+11	-0.1
2019	19	ROK	AZL Padres 1	—	97	88	18	2	0	0	9	22	0	4	0	205	278	227	506	23	273	23	9	240	42	-6	+1	—	—	+3	-0.3
2020	20	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	51	44	12	3	1	0	7	10	0	1	2	273	373	386	759	114	353	20	14	345	122	+1	-1	—	—	+1	0.2
2021	21	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	445	383	95	31	1	7	52	98	6	3	1	248	347	389	736	141	312	22	12	331	112	+6	+0	—	—	+13	1.9
2021	21	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	238	218	77	16	2	2	15	30	2	0	2	353	400	472	872	119	399	13	6	384	152	+14	-1	—	—	+7	2.0
2022	22	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	214	267	286	552	71	250	13	7	253	52	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2022	22	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	492	441	127	28	2	7	43	85	4	7	2	288	357	408	765	120	342	17	9	342	120	+11	+1	—	—	+14	2.6
2022	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	65	58	17	4	0	1	6	12	1	1	1	293	369	414	783	121	356	18	9	354	129	+2	-0	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	23	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	240	214	61	14	2	4	23	47	2	4	2	285	360	425	785	140	348	20	10	351	126	+7	+0	—	—	+7	1.4
2023	23	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	312	264	75	17	0	11	44	59	0	4	4	284	386	473	860	189	323	19	14	378	147	+17	-1	—	—	+9	2.5
2023	23	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	248	209	53	10	0	5	28	51	8	3	2	254	363	373	736	120	310	21	11	335	114	+4	-0	—	—	+7	1.1
2024	24	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	548	485	144	24	2	23	53	88	4	7	2	297	371	497	868	200	318	16	10	379	148	+30	+1	—	—	+16	4.7
2024	24	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	197	166	48	11	1	7	28	26	2	9	4	289	398	494	892	205	306	13	14	394	159	+13	+0	—	—	+6	1.9
2025	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	16	14	1	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	71	188	71	259		83	12	12	144	-32	-2	+0	-0	-5	+0	-0.7
2025	25	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	371	318	92	21	0	10	46	64	4	7	2	289	386	450	836	160	333	17	12	372	143	+18	+1	—	—	+11	3.0
2025	25	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	80	72	17	4	0	0	7	12	0	3	0	236	304	292	595	56	279	15	9	272	67	-3	+1	—	—	+2	-0.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	16	14	1	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	71	188	71	259		83	12	12	144	-32	-2	+0	-0	-5	+0	-0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Emil Brownlast yr '08 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA	6	2,335	57	47	263	326	406	-24	-8	5.3	5.3
#1Emil Brownlast yr '08 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA	/162	664	16	13	263	326	406	-6.7	-2.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#2Eric Karroslast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,197 PA	5	2,197	73	13	255	317	418	-19	-17	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	22	4	255	317	418	-5.7	-5.2	1.2	pk7: 4
#3Shane Halterlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,744 PA	5	1,744	41	11	247	305	396	-6	+8	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	16	4	247	305	396	-2.1	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 4
#4Nomar Mazaralast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,690 PA	7	2,690	85	7	256	315	414	-29	-21	3.7	3.7
	/162	664	21	2	256	315	414	-7.1	-5.3	0.9	pk7: 4
#5Shane Spencerlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,568 PA	5	1,568	41	13	261	325	410	-12	-6	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	17	6	261	325	410	-5.3	-2.7	1.5	pk7: 4
#6Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	8	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
	/162	664	15	9	253	302	405	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	395	12	3	244	302	401	-4	-0	0.5	0.5
	/162	664	20	6	244	302	401	-7.1	-0.2	0.9	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tirso Ornelas (OGILVIE)	26	45	45	45	45	246/301/417	171	287	17	4	22%	6%	98	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nicky Delmonico 2018 · MLB	26	47	50→55	48→45	47	237/300/395	158	288	17	6	24%	8%	95	+1.4	226/295/367	141	284	14	6	25%	8%	85	+0.7	217/292/360	143	280	13	2	26%	8%	81	+0.2
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2020 · MLB	27	49→53	48→50	48→50	48	243/304/390	147	284	15	9	20%	7%	95	+1.4	223/285/345	122	285	13	8	25%	7%	76	+0.0	186/249/234	48	274	3	3	31%	8%	27	-0.8
✕Cody Asche 2016 · MLB	26	49→55	48→50	43→45	44	246/297/391	145	302	16	4	24%	6%	92	+1.2	216/278/356	140	281	15	5	28%	7%	76	+0.0	194/261/329	136	258	15	4	30%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Chris Snelling 2008 · MLB	26	47→39	44→45	43→40	50	228/320/345	117	292	11	7	24%	9%	91	+1.1	227/315/333	106	280	9	6	21%	10%	85	+0.7	228/317/320	92	276	8	1	19%	10%	82	+0.2
✕Kory Casto 2008 · MLB	26	44→50	47→50	43→40	48	224/291/363	139	279	15	5	25%	8%	83	+0.6	230/290/341	111	288	12	5	23%	8%	76	+0.1	233/295/335	102	288	11	3	22%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Brandon Jones 2010 · MLB	26	51→53	44→55	47→50	47	246/301/371	125	304	10	10	22%	7%	88	+0.9	213/278/312	99	278	8	6	24%	8%	63	-0.8	192/264/274	82	254	6	3	25%	9%	45	-1.2
✕Dominic Smith 2020 · MLB	25	48→52	50	43→40	44	243/296/401	158	304	18	4	26%	6%	95	+1.4	255/317/425	170	311	19	4	23%	7%	110	+2.4	249/315/401	152	304	16	3	22%	7%	100	+1.1
●Tyler Nevin 2023 · MLB	26	44→54	47→50	48→45	47	224/294/352	128	275	15	5	24%	8%	82	+0.5	244/315/401	157	292	19	5	22%	8%	103	+1.9	247/321/413	166	290	20	3	22%	8%	106	+1.5
✕Jorge Piedra 2005 · MLB	26	52	51→55	43→45	47	262/317/432	170	302	18	7	20%	7%	111	+2.5	249/305/421	172	280	19	7	18%	7%	104	+2.0	245/303/414	169	275	18	4	18%	7%	99	+0.8
✕Chris Parmelee 2014 · MLB	26	46→51	50→55	44→45	50	235/305/391	155	278	17	3	22%	9%	96	+1.5	238/293/379	141	291	16	3	23%	7%	88	+0.9	238/290/376	138	287	17	1	23%	6%	84	+0.3
✕Bijan Rademacher 2017 · AAA	26	50→47	44→45	43→45	50	243/313/365	121	304	10	5	23%	9%	92	+1.2	234/290/330	96	294	9	5	22%	7%	73	-0.1	226/280/304	78	284	7	4	22%	6%	60	-0.6
✕Nick Maton 2023 · MLB	26	43→42	47→50	48→45	47	216/290/357	141	287	13	7	29%	8%	81	+0.4	218/307/369	151	274	18	5	26%	10%	92	+1.2	208/307/357	149	255	19	3	25%	11%	86	+0.4
●Troy Johnston 2023 · AAA	26	46→49	45→55	50→55	45	227/291/351	124	291	13	5	26%	7%	80	+0.4	238/298/392	154	291	16	17	24%	6%	93	+1.3	237/298/400	162	284	18	23	23%	6%	92	+1.1
✕Shed Long Jr. 2022 · MLB	26	44→47	50	49→50	45	225/285/378	153	293	17	9	29%	8%	84	+0.6	224/292/350	126	317	12	10	31%	8%	79	+0.3	191/272/253	61	319	0	9	36%	9%	42	-0.4
✕Dee Brown 2004 · MLB	26	48→50	44→50	44→45	44	236/289/356	120	298	11	7	24%	6%	79	+0.3	230/277/356	126	285	15	6	24%	5%	75	-0.0	231/294/369	138	263	15	8	18%	7%	83	+0.5
●Gavin Sheets 2022 · MLB	26	46→52	52→55	44→40	47	238/297/399	161	283	21	4	24%	8%	95	+1.4	229/289/378	149	267	18	3	21%	7%	86	+0.8	239/316/405	166	277	19	4	21%	9%	102	+1.4
●Domonic Brown 2015 · MLB	27	49→54	49→55	48→55	49	247/299/398	151	276	17	8	18%	7%	95	+1.4	222/268/326	104	272	10	9	22%	5%	63	-0.9	229/272/369	139	273	18	2	23%	5%	75	-0.0
✕Nomar Mazara 2021 · MLB	26	50→51	51→55	44→40	45	252/310/412	160	306	19	5	24%	7%	104	+2.0	242/306/369	127	312	13	3	25%	8%	90	+1.0	238/306/352	113	308	11	0	25%	8%	85	+0.3
✕Seth Beer 2023 · MLB	26	41→45	49→55	42→30	47	211/304/357	147	248	16	2	22%	7%	89	+0.9	210/285/335	125	275	14	3	28%	6%	74	-0.1	202/274/315	113	274	13	0	30%	6%	61	-0.5
✕DJ Stewart 2020 · MLB	26	43→47	53→60	46→50	48	228/300/402	174	266	21	11	23%	8%	97	+1.5	223/320/403	180	277	23	6	27%	11%	106	+2.2	212/319/414	202	253	29	2	28%	11%	105	+1.0