Tirso Ornelas

LF San Antonio Missions
Age 27 L/R 6'3" / 200 lbs AA HR +5% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2030
Overview
AAROOKIEArb-1FA 2031
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AAA/INTL2 orgs745.295/.378/.4963016113—.259/.314/.402
202525AAA/INTL2 orgs451.279/.371/.421101092—.258/.329/.375
202525MLBSD16.071/.188/.07100-16-0.7
202626AA/INTL2 orgs539.256/.340/.45619283—.217/.271/.370
2027PROJMLE27MLBSD3.242/.300/.38300940.0
2028PROJ20% MLB28MLBSD103.240/.298/.37931930.0
2029PROJ29% MLB29MLBSD145.237/.296/.3744191-0.0
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.7  ·  Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2
2027Arb-1$0.3M2028Arb-2$0.6M2029Arb-3$0.6M2030Arb-4$0.6M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Whiff%90
Z-Con%87
K%85
ISO71
wRC+60
Chase%59
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%
CompsNicky Delmonico (age 27) · Bijan Rademacher (age 27) · Jake Goebbert (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†94
AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .300 / .383
PA3
HR0
K%33
BB%6
BABIP286
ISO140
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2025
CONTACT
xAVG
100.170
POWER
Barrel%
518.3
Avg EV
7090.5
Bat Spd
6572.9
SPEED
Sprint
3626.8
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut   2025
Service   2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2031
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$0.3M+0.0$0.0M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Arb-2$0.6M———
2029Arb-3$0.6M———
2030Arb-4$0.6M———
Totals $0.0M $-0.3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201717 ROKAZL Padres 2 — 238196 541133 40611 00 276401408809 133383 2617 367 64 — — — — — —
201818 AFort Wayne TinCaps — 355309 781338 40683 51 252344392735 139297 1911 330 66 — — — — — —
201919 A+Lake Elsinore Storm — 379332 731151 44910 31 220311292603 72296 2412 279 37 — — — — — —
201919 ROKAZL Padres 1 — 9788 18200 9220 40 205278227506 23273 239 240 -2 — — — — — —
202020 INTLMayos de Navojoa — 5144 12310 7100 12 273373386759 114353 2014 345 120 — — — — — —
202121 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps — 445383 953117 52986 31 248347389736 141312 2212 331 59 — — — — — —
202121 INTLMayos de Navojoa — 238218 771622 15302 02 353400472872 119399 136 384 146 — — — — — —
202222 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas — 1514 3100 120 00 214267286552 71250 137 253 24 — — — — — —
202222 AASan Antonio Missions — 492441 1272827 43854 72 288357408765 120342 179 342 96 — — — — — —
202222 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 6558 17401 6121 11 293369414783 121356 189 354 126 — — — — — —
202323 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas — 240214 611424 23472 42 285360425785 140348 2010 351 97 — — — — — —
202323 AASan Antonio Missions — 312264 7517011 44590 44 284386473860 189323 1914 378 112 — — — — — —
202323 INTLMayos de Navojoa — 248209 531005 28518 32 254363373736 120310 2111 335 113 — — — — — —
202424 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas — 548485 14424223 53884 72 297371497868 200318 1610 379 98 — — — — — —
202424 INTLCharros de Jalisco — 197166 481117 28262 94 289398494892 205306 1314 394 153 — — — — — —
202525 MLBSan Diego Padres — 1614 1000 220 00 7118871259 83 1212 144 -16 -2 +0 -0 -5 +0 -0.7
202525 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas — 371318 9221010 46644 72 289386450836 160333 1712 372 97 — — — — — —
202525 INTLCharros de Jalisco — 8072 17400 7120 30 236304292595 56279 159 272 70 — — — — — —
202626 AASan Antonio Missions — 509451 11433117 47905 21 253329443772 191279 189 340 74 — — — — — —
202626 INTLCharros de Jalisco — 3021 7202 940 00 3335337141.248 381333 1330 524 241 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 1614 1000 220 00 7118871259 83 1212 144 -17 -2 +0 -0 -5 +0 -0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201717 ROK MLEAZL Padres 2 — 238211 42822 25881 00 199287284571 85328 3711 263 64 — — — — — —
201818 A MLEFort Wayne TinCaps — 355322 691036 27933 51 214281320601 106273 268 266 66 — — — — — —
201919 A+ MLELake Elsinore Storm — 379342 61941 341240 31 178253237490 58268 339 223 37 — — — — — —
201919 ROK MLEAZL Padres 1 — 9791 13100 6320 40 143196154350 11222 336 165 -2 — — — — — —
202121 A+ MLEFort Wayne TinCaps — 445400 792315 351316 31 198272297570 100271 298 256 59 — — — — — —
202222 AAA MLEEl Paso Chihuahuas — 1514 3100 130 00 214267286552 71220 207 204 24 — — — — — —
202222 AA MLESan Antonio Missions — 492452 1242427 321034 72 274328383711 108336 217 310 96 — — — — — —
202323 AAA MLEEl Paso Chihuahuas — 240220 601323 17572 42 273331391721 118351 247 312 97 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLESan Antonio Missions — 312274 7013011 34730 44 255338423761 168300 2311 334 112 — — — — — —
202424 AAA MLEEl Paso Chihuahuas — 548502 13020216 361104 72 259314402716 143295 207 313 98 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 1614 1000 220 00 7118871259 83 1212 144 -16 -2 +0 -0 -5 +0 -0.7
202525 AAA MLEEl Paso Chihuahuas — 371333 861807 31794 72 258329375704 117314 218 312 97 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLESan Antonio Missions — 509470 10228114 301105 21 217271370641 153247 226 278 74 — — — — — —
201717 ROK MLEAZL Padres 2 — 238211 42822 25881 00 199287284571 85328 3711 263 64 — — — — — —
201717 ROK RAWAZL Padres 2 — 238196 541133 40611 00 276401408809 133383 2617 367 64 — — — — — —
201818 A MLEFort Wayne TinCaps — 355322 691036 27933 51 214281320601 106279 268 266 66 — — — — — —
201818 A RAWFort Wayne TinCaps — 355309 781338 40683 51 252344392735 139297 1911 330 66 — — — — — —
201919 A+ MLE2 teams — 476434 741041 391550 71 171239219458 48260 338 211 29 — — — — — —
201919 A+ RAW2 teams — 476420 911351 531130 71 217304279583 62291 2411 271 29 — — — — — —
202020 INTL MLEMayos de Navojoa — 5144 12310 7100 12 273373386759 114353 2014 — — — — — — — —
202020 INTL RAWMayos de Navojoa — 5144 12310 7100 12 273373386759 114353 2014 345 120 — — — — — —
202121 A+ MLE2 teams — 683615 1213618 532018 33 197269298567 101274 298 256 59 — — — — — —
202121 A+ RAW2 teams — 683601 1724739 671288 33 286365419785 133347 1910 350 59 — — — — — —
202222 AA MLE3 teams — 572526 1432828 371195 83 272326378704 106337 216 307 94 — — — — — —
202222 AA RAW3 teams — 572513 1473328 50995 83 287356405761 119341 179 341 94 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLE3 teams — 800708 18938320 7418910 118 267345414759 147334 249 324 106 — — — — — —
202323 AA RAW3 teams — 800687 18941220 9515710 118 275371428799 153327 2012 356 106 — — — — — —
202424 AAA MLE2 teams — 745683 17728321 491506 166 259314401716 142301 207 313 98 — — — — — —
202424 AAA RAW2 teams — 745651 19235330 811146 166 295378496874 201315 1511 383 98 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLE3 teams — 467419 1062209 40984 102 253324370694 117308 219 305 93 — — — — — —
202525 AAA RAW3 teams — 467404 11025010 55784 102 272365408773 136313 1712 347 93 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLE2 teams — 539499 10730114 311165 21 214267363630 148249 226 278 74 — — — — — —
202626 AA RAW2 teams — 539472 12135119 56945 21 256340456796 199281 1710 350 74 — — — — — —
201717 ROK MLEAZL Padres 2 — 238210 42822 25881 00 200287286573 86328 3711 263 64 — — — — — —
201818 A MLEFort Wayne TinCaps — 355322 691036 27933 51 214281320601 106273 268 266 66 — — — — — —
201919 A+ MLE2 teams — 476434 741041 391550 71 171239219458 48259 338 211 29 — — — — — —
202121 A+ MLE2 teams — 683617 1213618 532018 33 196269297566 100271 298 256 59 — — — — — —
202222 AA MLE3 teams — 572525 1432828 371195 83 272326379705 107333 216 307 94 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLE3 teams — 800710 18938320 7418910 118 266345413757 146322 249 324 106 — — — — — —
202424 AAA MLE2 teams — 745684 17728321 491506 166 259314401715 142295 207 313 98 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLE3 teams — 467420 1062209 40984 102 252324369693 117304 219 305 93 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLE2 teams — 539498 10730114 311165 21 215267363631 149247 226 278 74 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 AAA MLE2 teams — 745684 17728321 491506 166 259314401715 142295 207 313 98 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLE3 teams — 467420 1062209 40984 102 252324369693 117304 219 305 93 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLE2 teams — 539498 10730114 311165 21 215267363631 149247 226 278 74 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLESD 2% 380348 8619110 26813 41 246304389693 143292 217 308 94 -3 +0 -1 -4 +8 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXSD 2% 33 0000 010 00 242300383683 142286 330 304 94 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLESD 20% 515471 11526113 351114 31 244302385687 141291 227 306 93 -4 +0 -2 -6 +11 -0.0
202929 MLB MLESD 29% 500458 11025112 341094 21 241300380680 138289 227 303 91 -5 +0 -2 -5 +11 -0.2
203030 MLB MLESD 35% 281258 621417 19622 00 238297373670 135287 227 298 88 -4 +0 -3 -3 +6 -0.4
202828 MLB CTXSD 20% 10394 23503 7221 10 240298379678 140284 217 302 93 -1 +0 -0 -1 +2 0.0
202929 MLB CTXSD 29% 145133 32704 10321 10 237296374670 137283 227 299 91 -2 +0 -1 -2 +3 -0.0
203030 MLB CTXSD 35% 9890 20402 7221 00 234293367660 133281 227 295 88 -1 +0 -1 -1 +2 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 362331 761609 26783 20 230292360651 130272 227 292 81 -6 +0 -2 -9 +8 -0.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650594 13729016 471405 40 231293360653 130274 227 292 81 -11 +1 -4 -16 +14 -1.6
Career— MLE — 63775791 136228623125 480153453 6929 235300357657 122296 248 287 81 -17 +0 -7 -21 +32 -1.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650590 13929213 491565 73 236299358657 122296 248 287 81 -7 +0 -3 -9 +14 -0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 509 PAwOBA .330 → .278 (−53)K% 17.7% → 21.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.68%÷1.000×1.220——21.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.45%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9885.84%
HBP% /PA0.98%—×0.870—×0.9880.84%
Singles /BIP17.45%÷1.000×0.920×1.015×0.98816.10%
Doubles /BIP9.14%÷1.000×0.840×1.015×0.9887.70%
Triples /BIP0.28%÷1.000×0.940×1.015×0.9880.26%
Home runs /BIP4.71%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9883.72%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .330 → .278; ISO .191 → .157; BABIP .279 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 371 PAwOBA .364 → .312 (−52)K% 17.3% → 21.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.25%÷0.973×1.200——21.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.40%÷1.054×0.690—×1.0338.39%
HBP% /PA1.08%—×0.940—×1.0331.05%
Singles /BIP24.02%÷0.999×0.930×1.027×1.03323.71%
Doubles /BIP8.27%÷1.042×0.830×1.027×1.0336.98%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×1.027×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP3.94%÷0.981×0.700—×1.0332.90%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .364 → .312; ISO .160 → .127; BABIP .333 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 548 PAwOBA .372 → .313 (−59)K% 16.1% → 20.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.06%÷0.961×1.200——20.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.31%÷1.026×0.690—×1.0486.56%
HBP% /PA0.73%—×0.940—×1.0480.72%
Singles /BIP23.93%÷1.025×0.930×1.019×1.04823.18%
Doubles /BIP6.05%÷1.053×0.830×1.019×1.0485.09%
Triples /BIP0.50%÷0.996×0.970×1.019×1.0480.52%
Home runs /BIP5.79%÷1.078×0.700—×1.0483.94%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 99, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .372 → .313; ISO .200 → .148; BABIP .318 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 312 PAwOBA .373 → .334 (−39)K% 18.9% → 23.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.91%÷0.987×1.220——23.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.10%÷0.927×0.700—×1.02710.94%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP22.93%÷0.986×0.920×1.021×1.02722.44%
Doubles /BIP8.29%÷1.116×0.840×1.021×1.0276.55%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.010×0.940×1.021×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP5.37%÷0.820×0.800—×1.0275.38%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .373 → .334; ISO .189 → .176; BABIP .323 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 240 PAwOBA .343 → .312 (−31)K% 19.6% → 23.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.58%÷0.985×1.200——23.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.58%÷0.963×0.690—×1.0507.21%
HBP% /PA0.83%—×0.940—×1.0500.82%
Singles /BIP24.55%÷0.958×0.930×1.034×1.05025.87%
Doubles /BIP8.38%÷0.975×0.830×1.034×1.0507.75%
Triples /BIP1.20%÷1.150×0.970×1.034×1.0501.10%
Home runs /BIP2.40%÷1.052×0.700—×1.0501.67%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .343 → .312; ISO .140 → .114; BABIP .348 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 492 PAwOBA .334 → .310 (−24)K% 17.3% → 20.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.28%÷1.008×1.220——20.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.54%÷0.965×0.700—×1.0426.46%
HBP% /PA0.81%—×0.870—×1.0420.74%
Singles /BIP25.28%÷0.979×0.920×1.039×1.04225.70%
Doubles /BIP7.87%÷1.035×0.840×1.039×1.0426.91%
Triples /BIP0.56%÷1.035×0.940×1.039×1.0420.55%
Home runs /BIP1.97%÷0.870×0.800—×1.0421.88%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 107, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .334 → .310; ISO .120 → .110; BABIP .342 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 15 PAwOBA .246 → .204 (−43)K% 13.3% → 16.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.33%÷0.959×1.200——16.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.67%÷0.990×0.690—×1.0504.88%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.047×0.930—×1.05015.55%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷1.133×0.830—×1.0506.41%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.002×0.970—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.138×0.700—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 109, 2B 127, 3B 100, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .246 → .204; ISO .071 → .054; BABIP .250 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 445 PAwOBA .324 → .256 (−68)K% 22.0% → 29.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.02%÷1.011×1.350——29.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.24%÷1.050×0.710—×1.0277.80%
HBP% /PA1.35%—×0.810—×1.0271.12%
Singles /BIP19.65%÷1.017×0.910×1.003×1.02718.11%
Doubles /BIP10.88%÷1.092×0.830×1.003×1.0278.52%
Triples /BIP0.35%÷1.067×0.820×1.003×1.0270.28%
Home runs /BIP2.46%÷1.057×0.830—×1.0271.98%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 103, 2B 118, 3B 113, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .324 → .256; ISO .141 → .108; BABIP .312 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .