Spencer Packard — OGILVIE

Spencer PackardOF Tacoma Rainiers

Age 28 L/R 5'11" / 210 lbs AAA K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION216 act + 21 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†100

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA2

HR0

K%19

BB%10

BABIP290

ISO53

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	138	120	30	4	1	3	13	19	5	1	0	250	348	375	723	125	276	14	9	331	110	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2022	24	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	307	255	72	15	1	12	41	47	9	5	1	282	400	490	890	208	303	15	13	394	153	+19	+1	—	—	+7	2.7
2022	24	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	56	40	11	4	0	2	12	19	3	0	0	275	473	525	998	250	450	34	21	436	181	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	550	466	136	27	2	14	68	86	11	1	1	292	394	448	843	157	329	16	12	376	140	+27	-0	—	—	+12	3.9
2024	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	176	154	43	15	0	2	19	26	1	0	0	279	362	416	778	136	320	15	11	346	120	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2024	26	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	227	186	53	5	0	5	34	38	5	2	0	285	409	392	801	108	331	17	15	366	134	+9	+0	—	—	+5	1.5
2025	27	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	494	414	115	24	1	10	64	65	14	1	0	278	392	413	805	135	308	13	13	366	134	+20	+0	—	—	+11	3.1
2025	27	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	85	73	22	4	0	2	9	10	2	0	0	301	393	438	831	137	323	12	11	371	137	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	138	124	26	3	1	3	9	25	5	1	0	210	290	323	612	113	238	18	7	266	66	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2022	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	307	272	61	12	1	8	24	65	9	5	1	224	308	364	672	140	256	21	8	292	84	-6	+1	—	—	+7	0.1
2023	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	550	491	128	25	2	13	43	101	11	1	1	261	334	399	733	138	294	18	8	321	103	+2	-0	—	—	+12	1.4
2024	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	176	160	36	12	0	1	13	33	1	0	0	225	287	319	606	94	268	19	7	272	70	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2024	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	227	195	50	5	0	5	25	44	5	2	0	256	356	359	715	103	297	19	11	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+5	0.6
2025	27	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	494	434	99	20	1	7	44	81	14	1	0	228	319	327	646	99	261	16	9	289	82	-11	+0	—	—	+11	0.0
2021	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	138	124	26	3	1	3	9	25	5	1	0	210	290	323	612	113	240	18	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	138	120	30	4	1	3	13	19	5	1	0	250	348	375	723	125	276	14	9	331	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	363	320	72	14	1	10	28	77	12	5	1	225	311	369	680	144	263	21	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	363	295	83	19	1	14	53	66	12	5	1	281	411	495	906	214	317	18	15	400	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	550	491	128	25	2	13	43	101	11	1	1	261	334	399	733	138	301	18	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	—	550	466	136	27	2	14	68	86	11	1	1	292	394	448	843	157	329	16	12	376	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	403	355	85	16	0	6	38	78	6	2	0	239	323	335	659	96	287	19	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	403	340	96	20	0	7	53	64	6	2	0	282	388	403	791	121	326	16	13	358	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	579	508	115	23	1	8	52	95	16	1	0	226	318	323	641	96	262	16	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	579	487	137	28	1	12	73	75	16	1	0	281	392	417	809	136	310	13	13	366	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	138	123	26	3	1	3	9	25	5	1	0	211	290	325	615	114	238	18	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	363	320	72	14	1	10	28	77	12	5	1	225	311	369	680	144	256	21	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	550	491	128	25	2	13	43	101	11	1	1	261	334	399	733	138	294	18	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	403	356	85	16	0	6	38	78	6	2	0	239	323	334	658	96	284	19	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	579	506	115	23	1	8	52	95	16	1	0	227	318	324	642	97	261	16	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	550	491	128	25	2	13	43	101	11	1	1	261	334	399	733	138	294	18	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	403	356	85	16	0	6	38	78	6	2	0	239	323	334	658	96	284	19	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	579	506	115	23	1	8	52	95	16	1	0	227	318	324	642	97	261	16	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	SEA	—	216	189	46	5	0	6	22	40	3	2	0	243	332	365	697	122	276	19	10	304	92	-2	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	ROK RAW	SEA	—	20	16	7	1	0	2	3	3	1	0	0	438	550	875	1.425	438	455	15	15	595	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	AAA RAW	SEA	—	196	163	44	5	0	5	29	28	2	2	0	270	387	393	779	123	295	14	15	354	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	28	AAA MLE	SEA	10%	21	19	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	211	286	263	549	53	292	19	10	317	100	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	28	MLB CTX	SEA	10%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						290	0	0	301	100	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	28	MLB A+C	SEA	—	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	301	92	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	28	AAA MLE	SEA	—	237	208	50	6	0	6	24	44	3	2	0	240	328	356	683	115	275	19	10	305	92	-2	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SEA	33%	323	284	71	12	1	7	31	61	5	2	0	250	334	373	708	123	292	19	10	315	99	-0	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.4
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	46%	343	302	75	13	1	7	32	67	6	2	0	248	332	368	700	119	291	20	9	313	98	-1	+0	-2	-2	+7	0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	SEA	54%	342	302	74	13	1	7	32	68	5	1	0	245	327	364	692	119	289	20	9	309	96	-2	+0	-3	-2	+7	0.1
2030	32	MLB MLE	SEA	58%	332	293	70	12	1	6	31	67	5	1	0	239	322	348	670	109	286	20	9	304	92	-3	+0	-4	-2	+7	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	SEA	33%	106	93	23	4	0	2	10	20	2	1	0	247	333	355	688	108	289	19	9	300	99	-0	+0	-0	-1	+2	0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	46%	157	138	34	6	0	3	15	30	3	1	0	246	333	355	688	109	288	19	10	298	98	-0	+0	-1	-1	+3	0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	SEA	54%	183	161	39	7	0	4	17	36	3	1	0	242	326	360	686	118	286	20	9	295	96	-1	+0	-1	-1	+4	0.1
2030	32	MLB CTX	SEA	58%	193	170	41	7	0	4	18	39	3	1	0	241	325	353	678	112	283	20	9	290	92	-2	+0	-2	-1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	641	564	137	24	0	13	60	125	11	4	0	243	328	355	682	112	288	20	9	295	91	-3	+1	-5	-4	+14	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	138	24	0	13	61	127	11	4	0	241	326	351	677	110	287	20	9	295	91	-3	+1	-5	-4	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3394	2998	720	132	9	67	298	643	71	16	2	240	323	357	681	117	283	19	9	303	91	-6	+1	-10	-8	+29	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	138	25	2	13	57	123	14	3	0	240	324	359	683	118	283	19	9	303	91	-3	+1	-5	-4	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	2.5	1,682	40	22	239	330	385	-14	+11	5.1	5.1
/162	664	16	9	-5.7	+4.4	2.0	pk7: 5
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	2.3	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	0	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Conor Gillaspielast yr '17 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,503 PA	2.3	1,503	32	1	252	305	394	+5	-14	2.2	2.2
/162	664	14	0	+2.4	-6.1	1.0	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.0	664	13	3	245	324	358	-4	+0	1.0	1.0
/162	664	13	3	-4.0	+0.0	1.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Packard (OGILVIE)	28	60	45	45	60	248/332/360	112	292	5	2	18%	9%	100	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●J.P. Crawford 2023 · MLB	28	54→58	41→45	40→50	57	257/338/360	103	294	8	5	15%	10%	101	+1.4	250/347/385	135	297	13	5	19%	12%	111	+2.1	249/350/384	135	299	14	5	20%	13%	109	+1.9
✕Brian Buscher 2009 · MLB	28	53→56	45	39→45	50	260/316/380	120	288	13	4	15%	7%	97	+1.1	235/306/344	109	268	11	4	16%	8%	86	+0.3	213/297/299	86	247	8	0	16%	10%	72	-0.3
✕Tucker Barnhart 2019 · MLB	28	52→55	44→45	40	55	250/326/373	123	291	11	3	18%	10%	99	+1.3	236/319/373	137	289	15	3	22%	10%	97	+1.1	229/314/361	132	289	15	1	24%	10%	86	+0.2
✕Luke Appert 2008 · AA	28	51→55	44→45	46→40	58	249/339/372	123	289	11	3	17%	11%	105	+1.7	235/304/344	109	288	10	5	21%	9%	85	+0.2	222/281/323	100	270	10	1	21%	7%	70	-0.5
✕Brian Stavisky 2008 · AAA	28	54→61	43→50	44→45	51	262/325/384	122	315	10	4	20%	9%	101	+1.4	253/317/394	141	310	14	8	22%	8%	101	+1.4	254/321/396	141	310	15	8	22%	8%	103	+0.8
✕Gonzalo Meza 2007 · AAA	28	56	45	44→40	50	277/330/402	125	310	13	5	16%	7%	107	+1.9	266/314/370	104	301	10	5	15%	7%	94	+0.9	272/321/346	74	310	5	3	13%	6%	90	+0.4
✕Brendan Harris 2009 · MLB	28	55→58	45→50	46→45	49	265/325/399	135	316	11	4	19%	8%	105	+1.7	232/286/336	104	276	9	3	19%	6%	76	-0.4	229/311/345	116	266	10	1	17%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Greg Garcia 2018 · MLB	28	54→55	39→40	47→50	57	252/346/340	88	317	6	8	21%	11%	100	+1.3	239/338/340	101	303	8	6	21%	12%	97	+1.1	237/345/335	98	299	7	3	21%	13%	96	+0.5
●Donovan Walton 2022 · MLB	28	52→56	48→50	40→45	50	258/323/405	147	284	16	6	16%	7%	106	+1.8	232/293/360	128	267	12	8	17%	7%	85	+0.2	246/321/364	118	275	14	5	16%	8%	95	+0.7
✕Carlos Lopez 2017 · AAA	28	57→64	40	43→40	47	270/315/367	96	317	6	6	17%	6%	93	+0.8	268/319/343	75	322	4	4	17%	7%	89	+0.5	276/331/330	54	331	1	1	16%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Terrence Long 2005 · MLB	29	53→58	46→50	45	49	259/309/398	139	287	13	6	15%	7%	99	+1.2	255/299/368	113	294	10	5	16%	6%	88	+0.4	252/294/353	100	291	9	2	16%	5%	80	-0.1
●Daniel Nava 2011 · MLB	28	53→60	45→50	43→45	49	253/329/384	131	317	11	5	23%	8%	104	+1.6	245/329/371	126	299	11	7	20%	9%	101	+1.4	264/353/385	121	319	11	4	19%	9%	110	+1.7
✕Mark Teahen 2010 · MLB	28	55→60	46→55	49→50	48	266/324/407	140	323	13	8	21%	7%	107	+1.8	245/309/361	116	313	10	7	23%	8%	91	+0.6	233/297/324	91	308	6	6	25%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Luis Guillorme 2023 · MLB	28	57→63	38→40	44→45	59	270/351/350	80	312	6	5	15%	11%	103	+1.6	228/314/313	85	283	5	6	19%	11%	82	-0.0	203/297/269	65	265	3	6	22%	11%	63	-0.5
✕Ben Gamel 2020 · MLB	28	56→62	44→50	48→50	51	263/339/390	127	340	10	9	24%	10%	108	+1.9	246/333/388	142	327	13	7	26%	11%	106	+1.8	235/329/377	143	305	14	7	26%	11%	99	+0.8
✕Nomar Mazara 2023 · MLB	28	51→52	45→55	45→40	47	249/312/373	125	319	12	3	25%	8%	95	+0.9	240/307/367	127	306	13	5	24%	9%	91	+0.7	226/297/323	97	289	10	0	24%	9%	77	-0.1
✕Johan Limonta 2012 · AAA	28	54→56	46→50	42→40	46	262/314/396	134	320	13	5	22%	7%	100	+1.3	253/304/368	115	317	11	5	22%	7%	90	+0.6	253/305/356	103	316	10	2	22%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Conor Gillaspie 2015 · MLB	28	52→59	46→50	35→40	50	258/313/395	137	291	13	2	16%	7%	100	+1.3	249/296/386	137	282	12	4	16%	6%	91	+0.7	239/278/370	132	267	11	4	15%	5%	75	-0.2
✕John Baker 2010 · MLB	29	55→59	46→45	42→45	52	267/342/405	138	326	13	3	21%	9%	113	+2.3	246/327/358	112	310	8	5	21%	10%	97	+1.1	196/273/239	43	268	3	2	26%	9%	45	-1.0
✕Vimael Machín 2023 · MLB	29	50→54	41→45	46→50	52	241/309/346	105	287	8	3	18%	8%	87	+0.4	234/294/344	110	281	10	8	20%	7%	81	-0.1	237/291/357	120	281	13	10	20%	7%	81	-0.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps