Spencer Packard — OGILVIE

Spencer PackardOF Tacoma Rainiers

Age 28 L/R 5'11" / 210 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION174 act + 116 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†103

AVG/OBP/SLG.255 / .339 / .392

PA116

HR3

K%18

BB%9

BABIP291

ISO137

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	138	124	26	3	1	3	9	25	5	1	0	210	290	323	612	113	240	18	7	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	138	120	30	4	1	3	13	19	5	1	0	250	348	375	723	125	276	14	9	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	2 teams	—	363	321	69	13	1	8	27	77	12	5	1	215	300	336	636	121	255	21	7	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	2 teams	—	363	295	83	19	1	14	53	66	12	5	1	281	411	495	906	214	317	18	15	400	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	550	492	131	25	2	19	42	103	11	1	1	266	338	441	779	175	299	19	8	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	550	466	136	27	2	14	68	86	11	1	1	292	394	448	843	157	329	16	12	376	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	2 teams	—	403	353	86	16	0	9	40	78	6	2	0	244	331	365	696	122	285	19	10	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	2 teams	—	403	340	96	20	0	7	53	64	6	2	0	282	388	403	791	121	326	16	13	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	579	510	115	24	1	7	50	92	16	1	0	225	314	318	632	92	261	16	9	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	579	487	137	28	1	12	73	75	16	1	0	281	392	417	809	136	310	13	13	366	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AAA	SEA	—	174	152	38	5	0	5	18	30	2	2	0	250	337	382	719	132	277	17	10	315	99	-0	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.4
YTD	28	AAA	SEA	—	174	144	43	6	0	6	26	23	2	2	0	299	413	465	878	167	316	13	15	390	157	+11	+0	+0	-1	+5	1.6
ROS	28	AAA	SEA	10%	116	102	26	5	0	3	11	21	2	1	0	255	339	392	731	137	290	18	9	320	103	+0	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.3
ROS	28	MLB	SEA	10%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	182	250	182	432		287	17	8	304	91	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	28	AAA	SEA	—	186	163	40	5	0	5	19	32	2	2	0	245	332	368	700	123	273	17	10	314	99	-0	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.4
TOT	28	AAA	SEA	—	290	254	64	10	0	8	29	51	4	3	0	252	338	386	724	134	283	18	10	317	101	+0	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	SEA	33%	323	285	72	13	1	7	30	60	5	2	0	253	334	379	713	126	291	19	9	319	102	+1	+0	-1	-2	+9	0.7
2028	30	MLB	SEA	46%	343	303	75	14	1	7	32	65	5	2	0	248	329	370	699	122	290	19	9	317	101	+0	+0	-2	-2	+10	0.6
2027	29	MLB	SEA	33%	106	93	23	4	0	2	10	20	2	1	0	247	333	355	688	108	288	19	9	304	91	-1	+0	-0	-1	+3	0.1
2028	30	MLB	SEA	46%	157	139	33	6	0	3	15	30	2	1	0	237	321	345	666	108	288	19	10	302	90	-2	+0	-1	-1	+4	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	275	243	58	10	0	5	26	52	4	2	0	239	322	342	664	103	282	19	9	303	90	-3	+0	-1	-2	+8	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	138	24	0	12	61	123	9	5	0	240	322	345	667	105	284	19	9	303	90	-7	+1	-3	-4	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	2815	2490	600	113	7	63	241	521	62	15	2	241	323	368	691	127	279	19	9	306	92	-24	+2	-3	-17	+80	3.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	139	26	2	15	56	120	14	3	0	242	324	372	696	130	279	18	9	306	92	-6	+1	-1	-4	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	138	120	30	4	1	3	13	19	5	1	0	250	348	375	723	125	276	14	9	331	111	+2	+0	—	—	+4	0.6
2022	24	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	307	255	72	15	1	12	41	47	9	5	1	282	400	490	890	208	303	15	13	394	159	+21	+1	—	—	+9	3.1
2022	24	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	56	40	11	4	0	2	12	19	3	0	0	275	473	525	998	250	450	34	21	436	192	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	550	466	136	27	2	14	68	86	11	1	1	292	394	448	843	157	329	16	12	376	146	+28	-0	—	—	+16	4.5
2024	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	176	154	43	15	0	2	19	26	1	0	0	279	362	416	778	136	320	15	11	346	123	+5	+0	—	—	+5	1.0
2024	26	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	227	186	53	5	0	5	34	38	5	2	0	285	409	392	801	108	331	17	15	366	138	+10	+0	—	—	+6	1.7
2025	27	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	494	414	115	24	1	10	64	65	14	1	0	278	392	413	805	135	308	13	13	366	138	+21	+0	—	—	+14	3.6
2025	27	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	85	73	22	4	0	2	9	10	2	0	0	301	393	438	831	137	323	12	11	371	142	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	7	1,682	40	22	239	330	385	-14	+11	5.1	5.1
#1Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	/162	664	16	9	239	330	385	-5.7	+4.4	2.0	pk7: 5
#2Ricky Ledeelast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,897 PA	7	1,897	52	21	239	323	404	-8	-6	5.0	5.0
	/162	664	18	7	239	323	404	-2.9	-2.1	1.7	pk7: 5
#3Shane Halterlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,744 PA	5	1,744	41	11	247	305	396	-6	+8	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	16	4	247	305	396	-2.1	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 4
#4Shane Spencerlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,568 PA	5	1,568	41	13	261	325	410	-12	-6	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	17	6	261	325	410	-5.3	-2.7	1.5	pk7: 4
#5Jose Offermanlast yr '05 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,767 PA	5	1,767	27	15	253	342	362	-14	-2	3.2	3.2
	/162	664	10	6	253	342	362	-5.4	-0.7	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Wil Corderolast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,639 PA	6	1,639	43	5	262	325	416	-17	-13	3.1	3.1
	/162	664	17	2	262	325	416	-7.0	-5.2	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	288	6	2	250	329	374	-2	+0	0.7	0.7
	/162	664	14	4	250	329	374	-4.0	+0.0	1.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Packard (OGILVIE)	28	60	45	45	60	252/338/386	134	283	8	3	18%	10%	101	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brian Buscher 2009 · MLB	28	53→57	46→45	39→45	49	262/318/390	128	289	14	4	15%	7%	101	+1.8	236/306/350	114	268	12	4	16%	8%	85	+0.7	213/296/304	91	245	8	0	16%	10%	69	-0.1
✕Tucker Barnhart 2019 · MLB	28	51→54	44→45	40	55	248/325/372	123	289	11	3	18%	10%	98	+1.6	236/318/373	137	289	15	3	22%	10%	97	+1.5	228/313/361	133	287	15	1	24%	10%	86	+0.4
●J.P. Crawford 2023 · MLB	28	54→58	41→45	40→50	57	259/340/364	105	297	8	5	15%	10%	103	+1.9	253/349/391	138	301	14	5	19%	12%	115	+2.7	252/352/390	138	302	14	5	20%	13%	113	+2.6
✕Mark Teahen 2010 · MLB	28	55→60	46→55	49→50	48	266/324/407	140	324	13	8	21%	7%	108	+2.3	245/309/361	116	314	10	7	23%	8%	89	+1.0	233/297/324	92	309	6	6	25%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Brendan Harris 2009 · MLB	28	55→58	45→50	46→45	49	265/326/401	136	316	11	4	19%	8%	107	+2.2	231/285/338	107	275	9	3	19%	6%	73	-0.1	221/306/334	113	260	11	1	18%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Terrence Long 2005 · MLB	29	53→58	46→50	45	49	259/309/398	139	287	13	6	15%	7%	98	+1.6	256/300/373	117	294	11	5	16%	6%	88	+0.9	254/296/360	105	292	10	2	16%	5%	80	+0.2
●Daniel Nava 2011 · MLB	28	52→59	47→50	43→45	48	254/329/395	141	315	13	5	23%	8%	108	+2.3	243/327/374	131	295	12	7	21%	9%	101	+1.8	259/348/375	116	313	10	4	19%	9%	107	+1.8
✕John Baker 2010 · MLB	29	55→59	46→45	42→45	52	267/342/405	138	326	13	3	21%	9%	115	+2.7	247/327/359	112	311	8	5	21%	10%	97	+1.5	194/271/237	43	268	3	2	26%	9%	36	-1.0
✕Luke Appert 2008 · AA	28	51→55	45	46→40	58	249/339/374	125	289	11	3	18%	11%	106	+2.2	235/304/349	114	290	11	5	21%	9%	85	+0.7	222/281/330	108	271	11	1	22%	7%	68	-0.3
✕Conor Gillaspie 2015 · MLB	28	52→59	46→50	35→40	50	258/313/397	139	291	13	2	16%	7%	100	+1.7	250/297/388	138	283	12	4	16%	6%	91	+1.1	241/281/375	134	269	11	4	15%	5%	75	-0.0
✕Larry Bigbie 2006 · MLB	28	53→56	47→50	47→50	49	260/321/397	137	316	15	10	22%	8%	104	+2.0	246/308/365	119	317	11	9	24%	8%	89	+1.0	251/312/353	102	331	7	7	25%	8%	85	+0.3
●Omar Narváez 2019 · MLB	27	54→55	44→50	38→30	58	261/344/377	115	305	11	2	18%	11%	108	+2.3	264/345/424	160	309	20	2	21%	10%	121	+3.2	264/345/421	157	307	21	0	20%	10%	117	+1.7
●Brian Stavisky 2008 · AAA	28	54→61	44→50	44→45	51	261/324/387	126	316	10	4	20%	8%	102	+1.9	253/317/404	151	312	16	8	23%	8%	105	+2.1	254/321/406	152	313	17	8	23%	8%	106	+1.1
●John Jaso 2012 · MLB	28	50→57	43→50	46→45	60	240/324/361	121	262	10	5	13%	11%	96	+1.5	262/361/415	153	297	14	7	16%	12%	125	+3.5	272/376/431	159	312	15	6	16%	13%	132	+2.1
✕Clint Robinson 2013 · AAA	28	53→60	47→55	45→40	50	263/321/403	140	302	14	3	18%	8%	105	+2.1	245/312/388	143	293	15	2	21%	8%	98	+1.6	243/316/390	147	291	16	0	21%	9%	96	+1.1
✕Carlos Lopez 2017 · AAA	28	57→66	41→40	43→40	47	273/318/373	101	321	7	6	17%	6%	95	+1.4	273/322/352	79	325	4	4	16%	7%	92	+1.2	282/335/342	60	334	1	1	15%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Lonnie Chisenhall 2017 · MLB	28	53→56	46→55	52→45	46	259/307/396	137	302	12	7	19%	6%	98	+1.6	265/325/427	162	313	16	8	20%	7%	113	+2.6	282/351/470	187	330	20	5	20%	8%	130	+1.4
●Jason Castro 2013 · MLB	26	49→54	44→50	47→30	53	240/315/363	123	287	11	3	20%	10%	92	+1.2	241/313/404	163	313	17	3	27%	9%	103	+1.9	234/334/405	172	309	21	0	29%	12%	109	+1.1
✕Jim Negrych 2013 · AAA	28	54→64	42→40	42→50	51	260/317/366	106	301	10	9	17%	8%	94	+1.3	250/302/350	100	299	9	8	18%	7%	83	+0.6	263/312/346	83	316	5	6	18%	6%	83	+0.4
✕Eric Campbell 2015 · MLB	28	54→57	43→45	49→50	51	258/333/376	117	322	10	11	22%	9%	104	+2.0	240/327/350	110	299	10	13	21%	10%	95	+1.4	243/339/350	107	298	9	12	20%	11%	97	+1.0