Spencer Packard

OF Tacoma Rainiers
Age 29 L/R 5'11" / 210 lbs AAA K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2031MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202426AAA/AASEA403.282/.388/.4037287—.239/.321/.334
202527AAA/INTL2 orgs579.281/.392/.41712192—.234/.321/.328
202628AAA/ROK/INTL2 orgs267.305/.408/.44273103—.244/.332/.350
2027PROJ10% MLB29MLBSEA14.253/.336/.360001010.0
2028PROJ33% MLB30MLBSEA54.250/.331/.35410980.0
Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Whiff%94
Z-Con%94
Chase%92
K%88
BB%84
Speed32
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%
CompsBrian Buscher (age 29) · Terrence Long (age 30) · Mark Teahen (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†101
AVG/OBP/SLG.253 / .336 / .360
PA14
HR0
K%14
BB%7
BABIP296
ISO77
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +0.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+0BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.8 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +3.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.30.02728
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT60
scouting grade only
POWER45
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202123 AModesto Nuts — 138120 30413 13195 10 250348375723 125276 149 331 63 — — — — — —
202224 A+Everett AquaSox — 307255 7215112 41479 51 282400490890 208303 1513 394 91 — — — — — —
202224 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 5640 11402 12193 00 275473525998 250450 3421 436 181 — — — — — —
202325 AAArkansas Travelers — 550466 13627214 688611 11 292394448843 157329 1612 376 99 — — — — — —
202426 AAATacoma Rainiers — 176154 431502 19261 00 279362416778 136320 1511 346 76 — — — — — —
202426 AAArkansas Travelers — 227186 53505 34385 20 285409392801 108331 1715 366 95 — — — — — —
202527 AAATacoma Rainiers — 494414 11524110 646514 10 278392413805 135308 1313 366 84 — — — — — —
202527 INTLCangrejeros de Santurce — 8573 22402 9102 00 301393438831 137323 1211 371 137 — — — — — —
202628 AAATacoma Rainiers — 196163 44505 29282 20 270387393779 123295 1415 354 82 — — — — — —
202628 ROKACL Mariners — 2016 7102 331 00 4385508751.425 438455 1515 595 168 — — — — — —
202628 INTLCardenales de Lara — 5147 18400 470 10 383431468899 85450 148 404 159 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202123 A MLEModesto Nuts — 138124 26313 9255 10 210290323612 113234 187 261 63 — — — — — —
202224 A+ MLEEverett AquaSox — 307270 621218 26639 51 230318370688 141264 218 303 91 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLEArkansas Travelers — 550491 12524214 4310111 11 255328397726 143284 188 314 99 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 176160 371201 13311 00 231293325618 94277 187 280 76 — — — — — —
202426 AA MLEArkansas Travelers — 227196 48405 24445 20 245342342684 97284 1911 308 95 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 494436 1022116 427614 10 234321328649 94267 159 292 84 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 196172 41404 20342 20 238325331656 93265 1710 289 82 — — — — — —
202628 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 2017 5101 241 00 294400529929 235326 2010 416 168 — — — — — —
202123 A MLEModesto Nuts — 138124 26313 9255 10 210290323612 113240 187 261 63 — — — — — —
202123 A RAWModesto Nuts — 138120 30413 13195 10 250348375723 125276 149 331 63 — — — — — —
202224 A+ MLE2 teams — 363317 731519 317412 51 230322369691 139270 209 303 91 — — — — — —
202224 A+ RAW2 teams — 363295 8319114 536612 51 281411495906 214317 1815 400 91 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLEArkansas Travelers — 550491 12524214 4310111 11 255328397726 143291 188 314 99 — — — — — —
202325 AA RAWArkansas Travelers — 550466 13627214 688611 11 292394448843 157329 1612 376 99 — — — — — —
202426 AA MLE2 teams — 403356 861706 37756 20 242323340663 98287 199 296 86 — — — — — —
202426 AA RAW2 teams — 403340 962007 53646 20 282388403791 121326 1613 358 86 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 579511 1192417 498916 10 233319325644 92268 158 292 84 — — — — — —
202527 AAA RAW2 teams — 579487 13728112 737516 10 281392417809 136310 1313 366 84 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLE3 teams — 267236 56606 26473 30 237321339660 102270 1810 301 90 — — — — — —
202628 AAA RAW3 teams — 267226 691007 36383 30 305408442850 137339 1413 381 90 — — — — — —
202123 A MLEModesto Nuts — 138123 26313 9255 10 211290325615 114234 187 261 63 — — — — — —
202224 A+ MLE2 teams — 363317 731519 317412 51 230322369691 139264 209 303 91 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLEArkansas Travelers — 550491 12524214 4310111 11 255328397726 143284 188 314 99 — — — — — —
202426 AA MLE2 teams — 403357 861706 37756 20 241323339662 98281 199 296 86 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 579509 1192417 498916 10 234319326646 92267 158 292 84 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLE3 teams — 267236 56606 26473 30 237321339660 102271 1810 301 90 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 AA MLE2 teams — 403357 861706 37756 20 241323339662 98281 199 296 86 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 579509 1192417 498916 10 234319326646 92267 158 292 84 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLE3 teams — 267236 56606 26473 30 237321339660 102271 1810 301 90 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLESEA 10% 266235 611115 24475 20 256338364702 108299 189 318 101 +0 +0 +0 -2 +6 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXSEA 10% 1413 3100 120 00 253336360695 106296 147 315 101 +0 +0 +0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLESEA 33% 164145 37703 15303 10 252333358692 106297 189 314 98 -0 +0 -2 -1 +4 0.0
202830 MLB CTXSEA 33% 5448 12201 5101 00 250331354685 104295 199 311 98 -0 +0 -1 -0 +1 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 5448 12201 5101 00 250333354688 104297 199 311 90 -0 +0 -1 -0 +1 0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650578 14424012 6012012 00 249332353685 104296 189 311 90 -1 +0 -8 -4 +14 0.1
Career— MLE — 26042303 553102550 22346659 152 240323354677 114279 189 301 90 -0 +0 -2 -2 +7 0.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650575 13725112 5611615 40 238322348670 110277 189 301 90 -0 +1 -4 -4 +14 0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 196 PAwOBA .349 → .289 (−59)K% 14.3% → 17.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.29%÷1.000×1.200——17.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.80%÷1.000×0.690—×0.98210.03%
HBP% /PA1.02%—×0.940—×0.9820.94%
Singles /BIP25.19%÷1.000×0.930×1.006×0.98223.14%
Doubles /BIP3.70%÷1.000×0.830×1.006×0.9823.04%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.006×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP3.70%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9822.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .349 → .289; ISO .123 → .092; BABIP .295 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Mariners · 20 PAwOBA .578 → .416 (−162)K% 15.0% → 21.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.00%÷1.000×1.440——21.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.00%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9408.74%
HBP% /PA5.00%—×0.720—×0.9403.38%
Singles /BIP30.77%÷1.000×0.820—×0.94023.72%
Doubles /BIP7.69%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9405.21%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP15.38%÷1.000×0.780—×0.94011.28%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .578 → .416; ISO .438 → .323; BABIP .455 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 494 PAwOBA .357 → .292 (−66)K% 13.2% → 15.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.16%÷1.035×1.200——15.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.75%÷1.023×0.690—×0.9928.53%
HBP% /PA2.83%—×0.940—×0.9922.64%
Singles /BIP22.92%÷1.019×0.930×0.986×0.99220.47%
Doubles /BIP6.88%÷0.985×0.830×0.986×0.9925.67%
Triples /BIP0.29%÷1.017×0.970×0.986×0.9920.27%
Home runs /BIP2.87%÷1.204×0.700—×0.9921.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 103, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .357 → .292; ISO .135 → .098; BABIP .308 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAArkansas Travelers · 227 PAwOBA .359 → .308 (−51)K% 16.7% → 19.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.74%÷1.046×1.220——19.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.54%÷0.928×0.700—×0.97810.72%
HBP% /PA2.20%—×0.870—×0.9781.87%
Singles /BIP29.05%÷1.020×0.920×0.977×0.97825.03%
Doubles /BIP3.38%÷0.977×0.840×0.977×0.9782.78%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.940×0.977×0.9780.00%
Home runs /BIP3.38%÷0.820×0.800—×0.9783.22%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 109, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .359 → .308; ISO .108 → .103; BABIP .331 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 176 PAwOBA .341 → .280 (−61)K% 14.8% → 17.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.77%÷1.004×1.200——17.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.80%÷1.011×0.690—×1.0037.39%
HBP% /PA0.57%—×0.940—×1.0030.54%
Singles /BIP20.31%÷1.010×0.930×0.981×1.00318.41%
Doubles /BIP11.72%÷1.014×0.830×0.981×1.0039.44%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×0.981×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP1.56%÷1.142×0.700—×1.0030.96%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .341 → .280; ISO .136 → .105; BABIP .320 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAArkansas Travelers · 550 PAwOBA .369 → .314 (−54)K% 15.6% → 18.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.64%÷1.041×1.220——18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.00%÷1.046×0.700—×0.9887.93%
HBP% /PA2.00%—×0.870—×0.9881.72%
Singles /BIP24.47%÷1.033×0.920×0.994×0.98821.40%
Doubles /BIP7.11%÷0.983×0.840×0.994×0.9885.96%
Triples /BIP0.53%÷1.103×0.940×0.994×0.9880.44%
Home runs /BIP3.68%÷0.853×0.800—×0.9883.41%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 121, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .369 → .314; ISO .157 → .145; BABIP .329 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Everett AquaSox · 307 PAwOBA .384 → .303 (−81)K% 15.3% → 20.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.31%÷1.007×1.350——20.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.70%÷1.039×0.710—×0.9788.49%
HBP% /PA2.93%—×0.810—×0.9782.32%
Singles /BIP21.15%÷1.021×0.910×1.050×0.97819.36%
Doubles /BIP7.21%÷1.048×0.830×1.050×0.9785.87%
Triples /BIP0.48%÷0.900×0.820×1.050×0.9780.45%
Home runs /BIP5.77%÷1.237×0.830—×0.9783.79%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 104, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .384 → .303; ISO .208 → .150; BABIP .303 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AModesto Nuts · 138 PAwOBA .322 → .261 (−62)K% 13.8% → 18.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.77%÷1.019×1.360——18.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.42%÷1.010×0.690—×0.9806.30%
HBP% /PA3.62%—×0.780—×0.9802.77%
Singles /BIP21.78%÷1.020×0.920×0.971×0.98018.69%
Doubles /BIP3.96%÷1.014×0.830×0.971×0.9803.08%
Triples /BIP0.99%÷0.903×0.910×0.971×0.9800.95%
Home runs /BIP2.97%÷0.861×0.800—×0.9802.71%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 81, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .322 → .261; ISO .125 → .109; BABIP .276 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .