Jake Goebbert
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 26 | AAASD | 339 | .296/.414/.539 | 14 | 1 | 110 | — | .237/.330/.424 | |
| 2014 | 26 | MLBSD | 115 | .218/.313/.317 | 1 | 2 | 72 | -1.2 | ||
| 2015 | 27 | AAASD | 421 | .294/.398/.452 | 10 | 4 | 91 | — | .237/.318/.356 | |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 399 | .217/.304/.356 | 11 | 0 | 41 | — | .171/.231/.269 | |
| 2017 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2018 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 591 | 519 | 151 | 48 | 1 | 10 | 52 | 78 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 291 | 368 | 445 | 813 | 154 | 322 | 13 | 9 | 358 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AAA | Oklahoma City RedHawks | — | 117 | 106 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 283 | 345 | 415 | 760 | 132 | 326 | 15 | 9 | 338 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 304 | 272 | 83 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 305 | 370 | 456 | 826 | 151 | 351 | 15 | 7 | 363 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 117 | 104 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 260 | 325 | 413 | 738 | 154 | 259 | 14 | 9 | 322 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 93 | 85 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 304 | 412 | 716 | 165 | 292 | 20 | 8 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA | Oklahoma City RedHawks | — | 35 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 257 | 167 | 424 | 33 | 174 | 20 | 14 | 214 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 433 | 368 | 112 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 55 | 57 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 304 | 402 | 473 | 875 | 168 | 338 | 13 | 13 | 386 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | INTL | Caribes de Anzoategui | — | 64 | 60 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 266 | 300 | 566 | 83 | 277 | 20 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 85 | 70 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 365 | 443 | 808 | 214 | 240 | 19 | 18 | 362 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 459 | 396 | 106 | 20 | 5 | 18 | 47 | 83 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 268 | 357 | 480 | 837 | 212 | 291 | 18 | 10 | 364 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | — | 115 | 101 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 313 | 317 | 630 | 99 | 309 | 28 | 10 | 291 | 72 | -4 | +0 | -3 | -8 | +2 | -1.2 |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 339 | 280 | 83 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 52 | 53 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 296 | 414 | 539 | 953 | 243 | 319 | 16 | 15 | 414 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 421 | 354 | 104 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 57 | 70 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 294 | 398 | 452 | 850 | 158 | 336 | 17 | 14 | 376 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 364 | 321 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 88 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 218 | 303 | 361 | 664 | 143 | 264 | 24 | 10 | 298 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 35 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 314 | 300 | 614 | 100 | 227 | 20 | 11 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 115 | 101 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 313 | 317 | 630 | 99 | 309 | 28 | 10 | 291 | 83 | -2 | +0 | -3 | -8 | +2 | -1.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 591 | 539 | 137 | 43 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 106 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 254 | 309 | 377 | 686 | 122 | 293 | 18 | 5 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City RedHawks | — | 117 | 109 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 257 | 302 | 385 | 687 | 128 | 308 | 21 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 304 | 280 | 74 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 56 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 264 | 313 | 396 | 710 | 132 | 311 | 18 | 5 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 117 | 107 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 234 | 281 | 383 | 664 | 150 | 225 | 19 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City RedHawks | — | 35 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 200 | 156 | 356 | 31 | 159 | 26 | 9 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 433 | 388 | 101 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 71 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 260 | 329 | 394 | 724 | 134 | 294 | 16 | 8 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 85 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 271 | 320 | 591 | 147 | 212 | 24 | 12 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 459 | 413 | 91 | 15 | 4 | 17 | 30 | 107 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 220 | 286 | 400 | 686 | 179 | 241 | 23 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | MLB MLE | San Diego Padres | — | 115 | 104 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 287 | 308 | 595 | 96 | 309 | 28 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -4 | +0 | -3 | -8 | +2 | -1.2 |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 339 | 295 | 70 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 37 | 68 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 237 | 330 | 424 | 754 | 186 | 267 | 20 | 11 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 421 | 371 | 88 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 92 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 237 | 318 | 356 | 674 | 119 | 284 | 22 | 10 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 364 | 334 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 106 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 171 | 231 | 269 | 500 | 99 | 220 | 29 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 591 | 539 | 137 | 43 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 106 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 254 | 309 | 377 | 686 | 122 | 300 | 18 | 5 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A RAW | Lexington Legends | — | 591 | 519 | 151 | 48 | 1 | 10 | 52 | 78 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 291 | 368 | 445 | 813 | 154 | 322 | 13 | 9 | 358 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 631 | 583 | 147 | 29 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 119 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 252 | 299 | 381 | 680 | 129 | 295 | 19 | 5 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 631 | 567 | 161 | 33 | 5 | 14 | 49 | 100 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 284 | 347 | 434 | 781 | 150 | 321 | 16 | 8 | 344 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 532 | 478 | 118 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 91 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 247 | 317 | 372 | 689 | 126 | 288 | 17 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 532 | 458 | 129 | 29 | 6 | 9 | 64 | 77 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 282 | 376 | 430 | 806 | 148 | 320 | 14 | 12 | 359 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 544 | 488 | 104 | 17 | 4 | 20 | 40 | 128 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 213 | 284 | 387 | 671 | 174 | 242 | 24 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 544 | 466 | 122 | 23 | 5 | 22 | 62 | 99 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 262 | 358 | 474 | 832 | 212 | 284 | 18 | 11 | 363 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 454 | 399 | 92 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 100 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 319 | 393 | 713 | 163 | 273 | 22 | 10 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 454 | 381 | 105 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 64 | 85 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 388 | 480 | 868 | 205 | 317 | 19 | 14 | 383 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 421 | 371 | 88 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 92 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 237 | 318 | 356 | 674 | 119 | 289 | 22 | 10 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 421 | 354 | 104 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 57 | 70 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 294 | 398 | 452 | 850 | 158 | 336 | 17 | 14 | 376 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 399 | 366 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 117 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 172 | 233 | 273 | 506 | 101 | 224 | 29 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 399 | 351 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 95 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 217 | 304 | 356 | 660 | 140 | 261 | 24 | 10 | 297 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 591 | 543 | 137 | 43 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 106 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 252 | 309 | 374 | 683 | 122 | 293 | 18 | 5 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 631 | 587 | 147 | 29 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 119 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 250 | 299 | 378 | 677 | 128 | 292 | 19 | 5 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 532 | 478 | 118 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 91 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 247 | 317 | 372 | 689 | 126 | 284 | 17 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 544 | 491 | 104 | 17 | 4 | 20 | 40 | 128 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 212 | 284 | 385 | 669 | 173 | 236 | 24 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 454 | 399 | 92 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 100 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 319 | 393 | 713 | 163 | 278 | 22 | 10 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 421 | 374 | 88 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 92 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 235 | 318 | 353 | 671 | 118 | 284 | 22 | 10 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 399 | 367 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 117 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 172 | 233 | 272 | 505 | 101 | 220 | 29 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 115 | 101 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 313 | 317 | 630 | 99 | 309 | 28 | 10 | 291 | 84 | -2 | +0 | -3 | -8 | +2 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 571 | 125 | 6 | 17 | 6 | 68 | 181 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 219 | 314 | 320 | 634 | 102 | 310 | 28 | 10 | 291 | 84 | -13 | +0 | -16 | -46 | +14 | -6.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3572 | 3224 | 749 | 154 | 25 | 76 | 260 | 753 | 44 | 40 | 23 | 232 | 298 | 366 | 665 | 134 | 277 | 21 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -2 | +0 | -3 | -8 | +2 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 137 | 28 | 5 | 14 | 47 | 137 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 233 | 299 | 370 | 669 | 136 | 278 | 21 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -13 | +0 | -16 | -46 | +14 | -6.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAADurham Bulls · 364 PAwOBA .293 → .223 (−70)K% 24.2% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.18% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.89% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.31% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.969 | ×0.982 | 16.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.01% | ÷1.093 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×0.982 | 4.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.969 | ×0.982 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.167 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 3.03% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .293 → .223; ISO .143 → .104; BABIP .264 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 421 PAwOBA .370 → .303 (−67)K% 16.6% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.63% | ÷0.980 | ×1.290 | — | — | 21.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.06% | ÷0.972 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 9.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.900 | ×0.987 | ×0.992 | 21.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.970 | ×0.810 | ×0.987 | ×0.992 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.987 | ×0.992 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.52% | ÷0.919 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 2.97% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 96, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .370 → .303; ISO .158 → .130; BABIP .336 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 339 PAwOBA .407 → .331 (−76)K% 15.6% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.63% | ÷1.002 | ×1.290 | — | — | 20.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.04% | ÷0.970 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 11.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.26% | ÷1.018 | ×0.900 | ×1.004 | ×1.003 | 18.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.81% | ÷1.068 | ×0.810 | ×1.004 | ×1.003 | 6.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.004 | ×1.003 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.17% | ÷0.958 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 5.04% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .407 → .331; ISO .243 → .194; BABIP .319 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAMidland RockHounds · 459 PAwOBA .356 → .296 (−60)K% 18.1% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.08% | ÷0.942 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.15% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.13% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.988 | 17.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.39% | ÷1.124 | ×0.840 | ×0.999 | ×0.988 | 4.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.60% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.999 | ×0.988 | 1.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.75% | ÷0.852 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 5.34% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 110, 2B 125, 3B 130, K 88, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .356 → .296; ISO .212 → .185; BABIP .291 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAASacramento River Cats · 85 PAwOBA .349 → .286 (−63)K% 18.8% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.82% | ÷1.016 | ×1.290 | — | — | 23.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.47% | ÷1.007 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 11.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.981 | ×0.900 | ×0.999 | ×1.018 | 15.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.037 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×1.018 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.906 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷0.978 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 6.02% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 81, K 103, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .349 → .286; ISO .214 → .175; BABIP .240 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 433 PAwOBA .376 → .314 (−62)K% 13.2% → 16.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.16% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.01% | ÷1.035 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.79% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×0.998 | 21.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.40% | ÷1.044 | ×0.840 | ×0.976 | ×0.998 | 5.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.93% | ÷0.940 | ×0.940 | ×0.976 | ×0.998 | 1.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.89% | ÷1.110 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.08% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 100, 2B 109, 3B 88, K 96, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .376 → .314; ISO .168 → .139; BABIP .338 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAOklahoma City RedHawks · 35 PAwOBA .210 → .167 (−43)K% 20.0% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.018 | ×1.290 | — | — | 25.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.079 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 9.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷1.001 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.033 | 12.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.960 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.033 | 3.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.101 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 92, 3B 120, K 104, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .210 → .167; ISO .033 → .029; BABIP .174 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 304 PAwOBA .356 → .306 (−50)K% 15.5% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.46% | ÷1.028 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.24% | ÷1.099 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.97% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.89% | ÷1.088 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 21.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.934 | ×0.840 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 7.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.78% | ÷0.922 | ×0.940 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 1.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.70% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 118, 2B 87, 3B 84, K 106, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .356 → .306; ISO .151 → .136; BABIP .351 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .