Jarred Kelenic — OGILVIE

Jarred KelenicRF Round Rock Express

Age 27 L/L 5'11" / 206 lbs MLB Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION434 act + 266 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 3779vR 96

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .280 / .360

PA266

HR8

SB9

K%32

BB%9

BABIP281

ISO155

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

2314.1%

xwOBA

520.311

POWER55

Barrel%

7411.8

Avg EV

6690.2

Bat Spd

6973.4

EYE45

Chase%

6329.3%

SPEED40

Sprint

3726.9

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 508 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

436

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

229

305

▶▶R

ISO

074

176

▶▶R

BABIP

283

295

▶R

30.6%

29.8%

—

BB%

4.2%

7.6%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	19	ROK	Kingsport Mets	—	251	229	49	7	4	5	17	71	4	15	1	214	280	345	625	131	286	28	7	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	Kingsport Mets	—	251	220	63	10	6	6	26	50	4	15	1	286	372	468	840	182	345	20	10	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	3 teams	—	500	461	113	24	4	28	32	147	3	20	7	245	298	497	795	252	293	29	6	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	3 teams	—	500	443	129	31	5	23	50	111	3	20	7	291	367	540	906	248	339	22	10	392	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB	2 teams	—	520	468	102	21	2	23	45	133	4	12	5	218	292	419	711	201	251	26	9	311	96	-2	+0	-4	+2	+15	1.1
2021	22	MLB	2 teams	—	520	462	101	22	2	23	51	128	4	12	5	219	302	424	726	206	248	25	10	321	104	+2	+0	-4	+2	+15	1.5
2022	23	AAA	2 teams	—	575	529	119	43	4	18	37	163	6	14	6	225	283	423	707	198	288	28	6	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	2 teams	—	575	515	127	37	4	25	51	143	6	14	6	247	322	480	801	233	291	25	9	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	2 teams	—	459	410	106	29	2	12	45	146	1	14	5	259	333	427	760	168	369	32	10	328	109	+5	+1	-3	-5	+13	1.1
2023	24	MLB	2 teams	—	459	408	105	28	2	12	47	143	1	14	5	257	336	424	760	167	363	31	10	337	116	+8	+1	-3	-5	+13	1.5
2024	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	449	412	95	18	2	15	32	133	1	7	2	231	288	393	681	163	300	30	7	296	84	-8	+1	-4	-5	+13	-0.3
2024	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	449	412	95	18	2	15	32	133	1	7	2	231	288	393	681	163	300	30	7	300	88	-6	+1	-4	-5	+13	-0.1
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	464	438	76	12	3	5	25	161	1	11	9	174	220	249	469	75	261	35	5	210	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	464	422	87	19	3	6	41	133	1	11	9	206	278	308	586	102	286	29	9	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AAA	TEX	—	434	384	79	17	1	15	46	144	1	19	5	206	292	372	665	167	282	33	11	296	85	-7	+2	+0	-5	+12	0.2
YTD	27	AAA	TEX	—	434	365	88	20	1	18	65	124	1	19	5	241	357	449	807	208	311	29	15	358	132	+16	+2	+0	-5	+12	2.6
ROS	27	AAA	TEX	100%	266	239	49	11	1	8	24	86	1	9	2	205	280	360	640	155	277	32	9	286	77	-7	+1	+0	-3	+8	-0.1
ROS	27	MLB	TEX	100%	266	239	49	11	1	8	24	86	1	9	2	205	280	360	640	155	279	32	9	286	77	-7	+1	+0	-3	+8	-0.1
FULL	27	AAA	TEX	—	700	623	128	28	2	23	70	230	2	28	7	205	288	368	655	162	282	33	10	292	82	-14	+3	+0	-8	+20	0.1
TOT	27	AAA	TEX	—	700	623	128	28	2	23	70	230	2	28	7	205	288	368	655	162	282	33	10	293	82	-14	+3	+0	-8	+20	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	TEX	100%	660	594	121	27	2	21	59	214	2	19	5	204	278	362	640	158	275	32	9	285	76	-18	+2	-0	-7	+19	-0.5
2028	29	MLB	TEX	100%	660	593	120	27	2	20	60	216	2	18	5	202	278	356	634	153	274	33	9	283	74	-19	+2	-1	-7	+19	-0.7
2027	28	MLB	TEX	100%	660	594	121	27	2	21	59	214	2	19	5	204	278	362	640	158	277	32	9	285	76	-18	+2	-0	-7	+19	-0.5
2028	29	MLB	TEX	100%	660	593	120	27	2	20	60	216	2	18	5	202	278	356	634	153	276	33	9	283	74	-19	+2	-1	-7	+19	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3074	2770	573	128	11	98	273	971	11	77	26	207	281	367	648	160	277	32	9	289	79	-73	+5	-12	-28	+87	-2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	121	27	2	21	58	205	2	16	5	206	280	367	647	160	275	32	9	289	79	-15	+1	-3	-6	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	4804	4373	950	219	26	155	376	1470	25	139	47	217	283	386	669	168	287	31	8	292	82	-100	+9	-12	-36	+136	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	129	30	4	21	51	199	3	19	6	218	283	389	672	171	288	31	8	292	82	-14	+1	-2	-5	+18	-0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	19	ROK	Kingsport Mets	—	251	220	63	10	6	6	26	50	4	15	1	286	372	468	840	182	345	20	10	371	142	+12	+3	—	—	+7	2.2
2019	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	92	83	21	4	1	6	8	17	0	3	0	253	319	542	861	289	246	18	9	368	140	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.8
2019	20	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	190	169	49	13	1	6	17	49	1	10	3	290	358	485	843	195	368	26	9	366	139	+8	+1	—	—	+5	1.5
2019	20	A	West Virginia Power	—	218	191	59	14	3	11	25	45	2	7	4	309	394	586	981	277	356	21	11	425	183	+21	-0	—	—	+6	2.7
2021	22	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	377	337	61	13	1	14	36	106	3	6	4	181	266	350	616	169	216	28	10	278	71	-13	-0	-4	+2	+11	-0.4
2021	22	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	143	125	40	9	1	9	15	22	1	6	1	320	397	624	1.021	304	323	15	10	434	190	+15	+1	—	—	+4	2.0
2022	23	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	181	163	23	5	1	7	16	61	1	5	2	141	222	313	535	172	167	34	9	241	42	-12	+0	+1	+2	+5	-0.3
2022	23	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	394	352	104	32	3	18	35	82	5	9	4	295	367	557	924	261	339	21	9	400	164	+29	+0	—	—	+11	4.1
2023	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	416	372	94	25	2	11	41	132	1	13	5	253	329	419	748	167	359	32	10	332	112	+6	+1	-3	-5	+12	1.1
2023	24	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	43	36	11	3	0	1	6	11	0	1	0	306	405	472	877	167	400	26	14	383	151	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	449	412	95	18	2	15	32	133	1	7	2	231	288	393	681	163	300	30	7	300	88	-6	+1	-4	-5	+13	-0.1
2025	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	65	60	10	2	0	2	5	23	0	0	1	167	231	300	531	133	229	35	8	241	42	-4	-0	-1	-5	+2	-0.9
2025	26	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	399	362	77	17	3	4	36	110	1	11	8	213	286	309	595	97	294	28	9	273	67	-15	-1	—	—	+11	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1488	1344	283	63	6	49	130	455	6	31	14	211	283	376	659	165	276	31	9	294	83	-29	+1	-11	-11	+42	-0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	3,411	105	79	210	278	366	-37	-31	-2.1	-1.3
	/162	664	21	15	210	278	366	-7.1	-6.0	-0.4	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jarred Kelenic (OGILVIE)	27	45	55	40	45	205/288/368	162	282	23	28	33%	10%	82	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Slade Heathcott 2018 · MLB	27	46→43	48→45	46→50	42	227/288/367	140	312	16	10	31%	7%	82	+0.5	226/285/356	130	327	13	13	33%	7%	79	+0.3	217/273/305	88	346	4	17	36%	6%	55	-0.3
✕Mike Gerber 2019 · MLB	27	41→50	48→50	45	37	207/257/348	141	299	16	7	36%	6%	65	-0.7	216/269/372	156	325	18	7	37%	6%	76	+0.1	212/267/376	164	321	19	5	38%	6%	72	-0.2
✕Jordan Patterson 2019 · MLB	27	39→49	47→50	46→50	36	198/265/334	136	284	15	7	34%	5%	66	-0.6	202/266/349	147	306	17	7	38%	5%	69	-0.4	178/241/326	148	279	18	4	41%	4%	50	-1.1
✕Nick Schulz 2018 · AAA	27	42→51	49→50	43→45	44	217/286/366	149	289	17	7	30%	8%	82	+0.5	200/271/331	131	294	16	8	35%	8%	66	-0.6	152/234/260	108	229	15	6	39%	8%	31	-1.7
✕Jaycob Brugman 2019 · MLB	27	48→49	44→50	47→45	44	234/288/346	112	307	11	9	27%	7%	76	+0.1	222/278/391	169	301	21	7	32%	7%	85	+0.7	199/258/405	206	258	28	0	34%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Ben Paulsen 2015 · MLB	27	43→53	50	41→40	37	219/266/373	155	315	17	4	35%	6%	75	-0.0	215/262/343	128	295	12	4	30%	6%	65	-0.7	209/257/320	111	283	9	2	29%	6%	53	-1.1
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2017 · AAA	26	44	49→50	46→45	38	226/270/371	145	307	18	9	32%	6%	76	+0.0	222/270/355	133	312	15	9	32%	6%	72	-0.2	216/264/343	127	307	14	8	33%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Matt Cepicky 2006 · MLB	28	44→43	48→50	40→30	42	224/274/370	147	291	15	5	28%	7%	77	+0.1	214/266/351	137	284	14	4	29%	7%	69	-0.4	203/256/337	134	267	14	2	29%	7%	61	-0.7
●Xavier Scruggs 2015 · MLB	27	43→47	50→55	42→45	42	217/290/369	152	301	18	6	33%	8%	85	+0.7	220/296/375	155	296	17	6	30%	8%	89	+0.9	218/300/395	177	284	22	4	30%	8%	93	+0.8
✕Roberto Macias 2007 · AAA	27	48	46→45	40	41	238/284/369	131	311	13	6	28%	6%	81	+0.4	240/288/354	114	310	11	7	25%	6%	79	+0.3	298/347/433	136	369	10	0	21%	6%	124	+0.7
✕Darick Hall 2022 · AAA	27	39→40	49→55	41→40	44	204/277/354	150	261	16	4	28%	7%	76	+0.0	222/276/398	176	271	24	4	27%	6%	86	+0.8	218/272/389	171	262	24	3	27%	6%	80	+0.3
✕Roger Kieschnick 2014 · MLB	27	43→46	50→55	49→45	41	218/274/377	159	304	17	6	33%	7%	79	+0.3	200/247/333	133	280	15	6	33%	5%	56	-1.3	182/224/303	121	252	14	5	33%	4%	36	-2.0
✕Bligh Madris 2023 · MLB	27	46	45→60	44→50	44	228/281/356	128	290	12	7	25%	7%	76	+0.1	216/284/392	176	275	22	13	29%	8%	88	+0.9	215/289/428	213	250	30	14	28%	9%	96	+0.8
✕Mike Costanzo 2012 · AAA	28	41→48	47→50	45→40	40	208/265/348	140	301	15	6	35%	7%	68	-0.5	205/265/334	129	294	14	4	33%	7%	64	-0.8	193/256/313	121	273	13	1	33%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Bryce Brentz 2016 · MLB	27	42→46	47→60	44→40	39	213/265/346	134	295	16	3	33%	6%	67	-0.5	223/270/375	152	305	18	4	31%	6%	77	+0.1	205/266/389	185	277	25	1	35%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Mike Papi 2019 · AAA	26	45→47	45	44→45	49	223/300/347	124	295	13	5	28%	9%	83	+0.6	219/284/325	106	305	9	8	29%	8%	70	-0.3	171/227/213	42	253	0	0	30%	6%	12	-0.7
✕Tyler Collins 2017 · MLB	27	44→50	47→50	49→50	43	224/275/350	126	277	15	10	25%	6%	72	-0.2	217/279/344	127	291	14	11	29%	7%	72	-0.2	221/288/362	141	300	16	12	30%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Marc Krauss 2015 · MLB	27	43→53	47→50	44→45	48	216/292/355	139	279	15	5	28%	9%	82	+0.5	203/276/329	126	285	14	5	32%	9%	68	-0.5	182/261/299	117	258	14	3	33%	9%	53	-0.8
✕Matt Tuiasosopo 2013 · MLB	27	43→50	46→45	45	45	214/287/338	124	294	14	7	31%	9%	75	-0.0	221/300/348	127	314	15	4	32%	9%	83	+0.6	207/295/327	121	301	14	2	33%	10%	73	-0.1
✕Elier Hernandez 2022 · AAA	27	40→49	49→50	45→50	36	211/256/348	137	284	18	8	32%	4%	64	-0.8	236/285/384	148	309	15	10	28%	5%	85	+0.7	238/287/382	145	311	14	10	27%	5%	81	+0.4