Jarred Kelenic — OGILVIE

Jarred KelenicCF Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 27 L/L 5'11" / 206 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION411 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 6283vR 91

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP296

ISO145

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

2613.7%

xAVG

250.231

POWER55

Barrel%

7311.6

Avg EV

6590.1

Bat Spd

6973.4

EYE45

Chase%

6628.6%

SPEED40

Sprint

4227.1

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 508 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

436

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

229

305

▶▶R

ISO

074

176

▶▶R

BABIP

283

295

▶R

30.6%

29.8%

—

BB%

4.2%

7.6%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.0M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.3M
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	19	ROK	Kingsport Mets	—	251	220	63	10	6	6	26	50	4	15	1	286	372	468	840	182	345	20	10	371	137	+11	+3	—	—	+5	2.0
2019	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	92	83	21	4	1	6	8	17	0	3	0	253	319	542	861	289	246	18	9	368	135	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.7
2019	20	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	190	169	49	13	1	6	17	49	1	10	3	290	358	485	843	195	368	26	9	366	134	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
2019	20	A	West Virginia Power	—	218	191	59	14	3	11	25	45	2	7	4	309	394	586	981	277	356	21	11	425	174	+19	-0	—	—	+5	2.4
2021	22	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	377	337	61	13	1	14	36	106	3	6	4	181	266	350	616	169	216	28	10	278	74	-12	-0	-4	+2	+8	-0.6
2021	22	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	143	125	40	9	1	9	15	22	1	6	1	320	397	624	1.021	304	323	15	10	434	180	+14	+1	—	—	+3	1.8
2022	23	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	181	163	23	5	1	7	16	61	1	5	2	141	222	313	535	172	167	34	9	241	49	-11	+0	+1	+2	+4	-0.4
2022	23	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	394	352	104	32	3	18	35	82	5	9	4	295	367	557	924	261	339	21	9	400	157	+27	+0	—	—	+9	3.6
2023	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	416	372	94	25	2	11	41	132	1	13	5	253	329	419	748	167	359	32	10	332	111	+5	+1	-3	-5	+9	0.7
2023	24	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	43	36	11	3	0	1	6	11	0	1	0	306	405	472	877	167	400	26	14	383	145	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	449	412	95	18	2	15	32	133	1	7	2	231	288	393	681	163	300	30	7	300	89	-6	+1	-4	-5	+10	-0.4
2025	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	65	60	10	2	0	2	5	23	0	0	1	167	231	300	531	133	229	35	8	241	49	-4	-0	-1	-5	+1	-0.9
2025	26	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	399	362	77	17	3	4	36	110	1	11	8	213	286	309	595	97	294	28	9	273	71	-14	-1	—	—	+9	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1488	1344	283	63	6	49	130	455	6	31	14	211	283	376	659	165	276	31	9	294	85	-27	+1	-11	-11	+32	-1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	19	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	251	229	49	7	4	5	17	71	4	15	1	214	280	345	625	131	285	28	7	270	69	-9	+3	—	—	+5	-0.1
2019	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	92	86	20	4	1	6	5	20	0	3	0	233	275	512	786	279	226	22	5	330	109	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2019	20	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	190	175	40	9	1	7	11	67	1	10	3	229	278	411	690	183	304	35	6	289	82	-4	+1	—	—	+4	0.1
2019	20	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	218	200	47	11	2	9	16	59	2	7	4	235	298	445	743	210	290	27	7	317	101	+0	-0	—	—	+5	0.5
2021	22	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	377	337	61	13	1	14	36	106	3	6	4	181	266	350	616	169	216	28	10	278	74	-12	-0	-4	+2	+8	-0.6
2021	22	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	143	131	37	8	1	7	9	27	1	6	1	282	333	519	852	237	293	19	6	359	129	+5	+1	—	—	+3	0.9
2022	23	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	181	163	23	5	1	7	16	61	1	5	2	141	222	313	535	172	167	34	9	241	49	-11	+0	+1	+2	+4	-0.4
2022	23	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	394	365	89	30	3	12	22	104	5	9	4	244	296	441	737	197	303	26	6	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+9	0.9
2023	24	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	416	372	95	26	2	11	41	132	1	13	5	255	331	425	756	169	359	32	10	326	107	+3	+1	-3	-5	+9	0.5
2023	24	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	43	38	10	3	0	1	4	14	0	1	0	263	333	421	754	158	354	33	9	311	97	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	449	412	95	18	2	15	32	133	1	7	2	231	288	393	681	163	300	30	7	296	86	-7	+1	-4	-5	+10	-0.6
2025	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	65	60	10	2	0	2	5	23	0	0	1	167	231	300	531	133	229	35	8	238	47	-4	-0	-1	-5	+1	-1.0
2025	26	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	399	376	66	12	3	3	22	135	1	11	8	176	223	247	470	72	263	34	6	207	26	-35	-1	—	—	+9	-2.8
2018	19	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	251	229	49	7	4	5	17	71	4	15	1	214	280	345	625	131	286	28	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	—	251	220	63	10	6	6	26	50	4	15	1	286	372	468	840	182	345	20	10	371	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	500	460	106	23	4	21	33	146	3	20	7	230	286	435	721	204	286	29	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	500	443	129	31	5	23	50	111	3	20	7	291	367	540	906	248	339	22	10	392	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	520	468	98	21	2	21	45	133	4	12	5	209	284	397	682	188	243	26	9	300	89	-7	+0	-4	+2	+11	0.3
2021	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	520	462	101	22	2	23	51	128	4	12	5	219	302	424	726	206	248	25	10	321	89	-7	+0	-4	+2	+11	0.3
2022	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	575	528	112	35	4	19	38	165	6	14	6	212	273	402	674	189	268	29	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	575	515	127	37	4	25	51	143	6	14	6	247	322	480	801	233	291	25	9	350	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	459	410	105	28	2	12	45	146	1	14	5	256	331	422	753	166	365	32	10	324	106	+3	+1	-3	-5	+10	0.6
2023	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	459	408	105	28	2	12	47	143	1	14	5	257	336	424	760	167	363	31	10	337	106	+3	+1	-3	-5	+10	0.6
2024	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	449	412	95	18	2	15	32	133	1	7	2	231	288	393	681	163	300	30	7	296	86	-7	+1	-4	-5	+10	-0.6
2024	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	449	412	95	18	2	15	32	133	1	7	2	231	288	393	681	163	300	30	7	300	86	-7	+1	-4	-5	+10	-0.6
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	464	436	76	14	3	5	27	158	1	11	9	174	224	255	479	80	260	34	6	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	464	422	87	19	3	6	41	133	1	11	9	206	278	308	586	102	286	29	9	268	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	251	228	49	7	4	5	17	71	4	15	1	215	280	346	626	132	285	28	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	500	460	106	23	4	21	33	146	3	20	7	230	286	435	721	204	284	29	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	520	466	98	21	2	21	45	133	4	12	5	210	284	399	683	189	237	26	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	575	526	112	35	4	19	38	165	6	14	6	213	273	403	676	190	260	29	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	459	410	105	28	2	12	45	146	1	14	5	256	331	422	753	166	359	32	10	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	449	413	95	18	2	15	32	133	1	7	2	230	288	392	680	162	300	30	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	464	433	76	14	3	5	27	158	1	11	9	176	224	256	480	81	258	34	6	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	459	410	105	28	2	12	45	146	1	14	5	256	331	422	753	166	359	32	10	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	449	413	95	18	2	15	32	133	1	7	2	230	288	392	680	162	300	30	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	464	433	76	14	3	5	27	158	1	11	9	176	224	256	480	81	258	34	6	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	NYY	—	411	371	90	15	5	11	36	124	1	20	6	243	311	399	710	156	332	30	9	308	95	-3	+2	+0	+1	+9	1.0
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	NYY	—	83	73	16	2	0	1	10	31	0	0	1	219	313	288	601	68	366	37	12	282	95	-1	-0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
YTD	27	AAA RAW	NYY	—	328	284	84	16	5	14	40	78	1	20	5	296	385	535	920	239	361	24	12	399	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	27	MLB RAW	NYY	—	83	73	16	2	0	1	10	31	0	0	1	219	313	288	601	68	366	37	12	282	77	-2	-0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
ROS	27	AAA MLE	NYY	100%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		294	30	10	290	83	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		296	30	10	293	83	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	27	MLB A+C	NYY	—	93	82	17	2	0	1	11	34	0	0	1	207	301	268	569	61	340	37	12	283	95	-1	-0	-0	+0	+2	0.1
TOT	27	AAA MLE	NYY	—	421	380	91	15	5	11	37	127	1	20	6	239	309	392	701	153	328	30	9	308	95	-3	+2	-0	+2	+9	1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	468	427	88	19	2	13	37	144	1	15	4	206	271	351	622	145	275	31	8	278	74	-14	+1	-3	+2	+10	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	468	427	89	20	2	13	37	144	1	15	4	208	273	356	629	148	278	31	8	281	74	-14	+1	-3	+2	+10	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1966	1780	373	83	8	62	168	602	7	46	18	210	280	370	650	160	276	31	9	291	80	-41	+2	-14	-9	+43	-2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	123	27	3	20	56	199	2	15	6	209	280	367	647	158	276	31	9	291	80	-14	+1	-5	-3	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3696	3379	730	165	23	111	275	1099	21	108	39	216	279	377	656	161	283	30	7	286	80	-41	+2	-14	-9	+43	-2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	129	29	4	20	48	193	4	19	7	217	280	380	660	163	284	30	7	286	80	-14	+1	-5	-3	+14	-0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	3.8	2,514	76	58	213	279	368	+2	-25	1.1	1.5
/162	664	20	15	+0.6	-6.5	0.3	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jarred Kelenic (OGILVIE)	27	45	55	40	45	218/282/366	149	294	13	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Slade Heathcott 2018 · MLB	27	46	45	46→50	43	227/288/350	123	310	13	10	30%	7%	80	-0.1	224/284/344	120	325	11	13	32%	7%	78	-0.3	204/259/285	81	335	4	17	38%	6%	51	-0.5
✕Jordan Patterson 2019 · MLB	27	41→49	49→50	46→50	37	209/277/360	151	290	17	7	33%	6%	80	-0.2	204/269/348	144	305	16	7	37%	5%	74	-0.6	176/238/308	133	273	15	4	40%	4%	51	-1.5
✕Mike Gerber 2019 · MLB	27	41→51	46→50	45	38	206/258/337	131	298	14	7	35%	6%	66	-1.1	216/270/371	155	321	18	7	36%	6%	79	-0.2	214/268/383	169	316	20	5	37%	6%	78	-0.3
✕Bligh Madris 2023 · MLB	27	47	44→50	44→50	45	228/284/353	125	291	11	7	25%	7%	80	-0.2	207/277/352	145	273	17	13	29%	9%	77	-0.3	195/271/351	156	244	20	13	28%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Matt Cepicky 2006 · MLB	28	44→43	48→50	40→30	43	224/276/371	147	292	15	5	28%	7%	81	-0.1	214/267/348	134	282	13	4	28%	7%	72	-0.7	203/256/331	128	266	13	2	28%	7%	64	-0.9
✕Ben Paulsen 2015 · MLB	27	46→53	50→55	42→40	39	229/277/389	160	318	17	4	33%	6%	85	+0.2	227/276/365	138	306	13	4	29%	6%	79	-0.2	225/274/349	124	301	11	2	28%	6%	72	-0.5
✕Kyle Russell 2013 · AAA	27	41→45	51→60	47→45	41	208/276/373	165	300	18	7	36%	8%	82	-0.0	206/271/327	121	317	12	9	36%	8%	69	-0.9	171/234/255	84	287	9	7	41%	7%	36	-1.1
✕Drew Robinson 2019 · MLB	27	44→42	51→55	47→50	44	216/289/381	165	325	18	11	37%	9%	88	+0.5	206/283/340	134	364	14	14	43%	9%	77	-0.3	158/246/261	103	306	11	16	47%	10%	46	-0.8
✕Norel González 2022 · AAA	28	47	49→50	43→40	44	240/296/391	151	292	17	9	24%	6%	93	+0.8	224/284/360	136	290	15	5	27%	7%	82	-0.0	212/275/341	129	275	15	2	28%	7%	71	-0.4
✕Roger Kieschnick 2014 · MLB	27	44→46	49→50	49→45	41	219/274/372	153	302	15	6	32%	7%	80	-0.1	205/252/340	135	282	15	6	32%	6%	65	-1.2	191/234/319	128	258	15	5	32%	5%	50	-1.7
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2017 · AAA	26	45	47→45	46→45	40	225/273/356	131	308	15	9	31%	6%	76	-0.4	224/273/349	125	314	13	9	31%	6%	74	-0.5	221/268/341	120	313	12	8	32%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Jack Larsen 2022 · AA	27	46→50	50	47→45	45	228/299/386	158	321	17	9	33%	9%	93	+0.8	239/317/353	114	323	10	8	27%	10%	92	+0.7	239/324/336	97	321	8	6	25%	10%	88	+0.2
✕Jaycob Brugman 2019 · MLB	27	48→49	43→50	48→45	44	232/287/339	107	305	10	9	27%	7%	77	-0.3	223/282/396	173	301	22	7	32%	7%	89	+0.5	201/263/415	214	257	29	0	34%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Xavier Scruggs 2015 · MLB	27	43→46	50	41→45	43	219/294/371	152	302	18	6	32%	8%	88	+0.5	220/297/372	152	296	17	6	30%	8%	90	+0.6	211/293/366	155	280	19	4	30%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Kevin Kramer 2021 · MLB	27	47→54	44→45	43→50	42	227/283/345	118	314	10	8	30%	7%	78	-0.3	208/292/310	102	294	9	6	30%	8%	74	-0.6	175/277/245	70	256	5	0	30%	9%	53	-1.0
✕Carlos Peguero 2014 · MLB	27	43→45	52→60	45→50	34	218/266/386	168	328	21	9	39%	5%	81	-0.1	211/269/387	176	326	23	11	40%	7%	82	+0.0	197/260/375	179	299	25	11	41%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2023 · MLB	26	44	48→50	50	41	221/281/364	142	302	16	12	31%	7%	82	-0.0	201/270/356	155	264	19	5	31%	7%	76	-0.4	179/254/334	155	229	19	1	31%	7%	62	-1.0
✕Ben Guez 2014 · AAA	27	45→52	46→50	46→50	44	221/296/353	132	298	13	12	29%	8%	84	+0.2	203/279/346	143	286	16	13	33%	7%	77	-0.3	186/264/332	146	252	17	13	32%	7%	66	-0.6
✕Darick Hall 2022 · AAA	27	39→38	47→55	41→40	45	201/277/338	137	259	14	4	27%	7%	75	-0.5	218/275/379	161	270	21	4	27%	6%	82	+0.0	213/268/368	155	261	21	3	27%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Ka'ai Tom 2021 · AAA	27	47→48	51→50	47→50	44	236/298/406	170	300	18	8	27%	7%	97	+1.1	197/281/324	127	276	13	8	32%	8%	73	-0.6	164/260/274	110	233	12	7	33%	9%	51	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps