Jarred Kelenic — OGILVIE

Jarred KelenicRF Charlotte Knights

Age 27 L/L 5'11" / 206 lbs AAA BB +6%HR -6% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

wRC+†vL 2768vR 83

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .273 / .363

PA350

HR10

SB11

K%31

BB%7

MLB%45%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

55→55

SPD

40→40

EYE

45→45

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.1peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$0.8M	—	—	—
Totals		$-3M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	19	ROK	Kingsport Mets	251	229	49	7	4	5	17	71	4	15	1	.214	.280	.345	.625	.131	.286	28	7	.270	65	-10	+3	+0	-3	+7	-0.3
2019	20	A	3 teams	500	461	106	23	3	23	32	147	3	20	7	.230	.284	.443	.727	.213	.281	29	6	.308	94	-3	+1	+0	-5	+14	0.7
2021	22	MLB	2 teams	520	468	99	21	2	22	45	135	4	12	5	.212	.286	.406	.692	.194	.245	26	9	.301	89	-7	+0	-4	+2	+15	0.7
2022	23	AAA	2 teams	575	528	110	33	4	19	38	165	6	14	6	.208	.269	.394	.663	.186	.262	29	7	.290	80	-13	+0	+1	+2	+16	0.7
2023	24	MLB	2 teams	459	410	106	27	3	12	45	146	1	14	5	.259	.333	.427	.760	.168	.369	32	10	.326	107	+4	+1	-3	-5	+13	1.0
2024	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	449	412	96	17	2	16	32	133	1	7	2	.233	.290	.400	.690	.167	.301	30	7	.301	88	-6	+1	-4	-5	+13	-0.1
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	464	436	75	13	3	5	27	159	1	11	9	.172	.222	.250	.472	.078	.257	34	6	.214	22	-41	-1	-1	-5	+13	-3.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	27	AAA	Charlotte Knights	81	72	11	2	0	4	8	29	0	4	0	.153	.237	.347	.585	.194	.175	36	10	.255	53	-4	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
ROS	27	MLB	CWS	269	245	51	10	1	9	21	86	1	7	1	.208	.273	.367	.641	.159	.274	32	8	.280	73	-8	+1	-2	-3	+8	-0.5
TOT	27	MLB	CWS	350	317	62	12	1	13	29	115	1	11	1	.196	.265	.363	.628	.167	.257	33	8	.274	68	-13	+2	-2	-4	+10	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	28	MLB 54%	CWS	466	420	87	17	2	15	42	122	1	12	2	.207	.281	.364	.645	.157	.255	26	9	.290	80	-10	+2	-4	-5	+13	-0.5
2028	29	MLB 65%	CWS	454	409	85	17	2	14	41	120	1	11	1	.208	.282	.362	.643	.154	.254	26	9	.288	79	-11	+2	-5	-5	+13	-0.6
2029	30	MLB 74%	CWS	443	399	82	16	2	14	40	119	1	9	1	.206	.280	.361	.640	.155	.252	27	9	.285	76	-12	+1	-5	-5	+13	-0.8
2030	31	MLB 82%	CWS	428	385	78	15	2	13	39	117	1	7	0	.203	.278	.353	.631	.151	.251	27	9	.281	73	-13	+1	-6	-5	+12	-1.0
2031	32	MLB	CWS	409	368	73	14	2	12	37	114	1	5	0	.198	.273	.345	.619	.147	.249	28	9	.276	70	-14	+1	-7	-4	+12	-1.3
2032	33	MLB	CWS	379	342	67	13	2	11	34	108	0	3	0	.196	.269	.342	.611	.146	.247	28	9	.271	65	-15	+1	-7	-4	+11	-1.5
2033	34	MLB	CWS	334	301	57	11	1	9	30	98	0	2	0	.189	.263	.322	.585	.133	.245	29	9	.264	60	-15	+0	-7	-4	+9	-1.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6400	5813	1221	254	35	199	520	1840	26	149	40	.210	.278	.368	.646	.158	.269	29	8	.284	76	-175	+14	-54	-53	+181	-8.8
/ 162G	—			650	590	124	26	4	20	53	187	3	15	4	.210	.279	.369	.648	.159	.269	29	8	.284	76	-18	+1	-5	-5	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	19	ROK	Kingsport Mets	251	220	63	10	6	6	26	50	4	15	1	.286	.372	.468	.840	.182	.345	20	10	.371	142	+12	+3	—	—	+7	2.2
2019	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	92	83	21	4	1	6	8	17	0	3	0	.253	.319	.542	.861	.289	.246	18	9	.368	140	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.8
2019	20	A+	Modesto Nuts	190	169	49	13	1	6	17	49	1	10	3	.290	.358	.485	.843	.195	.368	26	9	.366	139	+8	+1	—	—	+5	1.5
2019	20	A	West Virginia Power	218	191	59	14	3	11	25	45	2	7	4	.309	.394	.586	.981	.277	.356	21	11	.425	183	+21	-0	—	—	+6	2.7
2021	22	MLB	Seattle Mariners	377	337	61	13	1	14	36	106	3	6	4	.181	.266	.350	.616	.169	.216	28	10	.278	71	-13	-0	-4	+2	+11	-0.4
2021	22	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	143	125	40	9	1	9	15	22	1	6	1	.320	.397	.624	1.021	.304	.323	15	10	.434	190	+15	+1	—	—	+4	2.0
2022	23	MLB	Seattle Mariners	181	163	23	5	1	7	16	61	1	5	2	.141	.222	.313	.535	.172	.167	34	9	.241	42	-12	+0	+1	+2	+5	-0.3
2022	23	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	394	352	104	32	3	18	35	82	5	9	4	.295	.367	.557	.924	.261	.339	21	9	.400	164	+29	+0	—	—	+11	4.1
2023	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	416	372	94	25	2	11	41	132	1	13	5	.253	.329	.419	.748	.167	.359	32	10	.332	112	+6	+1	-3	-5	+12	1.1
2023	24	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	43	36	11	3	0	1	6	11	0	1	0	.306	.405	.472	.877	.167	.400	26	14	.383	151	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	449	412	95	18	2	15	32	133	1	7	2	.231	.288	.393	.681	.163	.300	30	7	.300	88	-6	+1	-4	-5	+13	-0.1
2025	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	65	60	10	2	0	2	5	23	0	0	1	.167	.231	.300	.531	.133	.229	35	8	.241	42	-4	-0	-1	-5	+2	-0.9
2025	26	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	399	362	77	17	3	4	36	110	1	11	8	.213	.286	.309	.595	.097	.294	28	9	.273	67	-15	-1	—	—	+11	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1488	1344	283	63	6	49	130	455	6	31	14	.211	.283	.376	.659	.165	.276	31	9	.294	83	-29	+1	-11	-11	+42	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jarred Kelenic (OGILVIE)	27	45	55	40	45	.215/.273/.363	.149	.290	10	8	31%	7%	76	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jordan Patterson 2019 · MLB	27	41→49	49→50	47→50	38	.211/.278/.360	.148	.293	17	7	33%	6%	78	+0.2	.205/.268/.358	.153	.302	18	7	37%	5%	73	-0.1	.181/.242/.330	.149	.277	18	4	40%	4%	52	-1.1
✕Mike Gerber 2019 · MLB	27	42→52	47→50	45	38	.211/.263/.349	.138	.307	15	7	35%	6%	67	-0.5	.215/.268/.373	.158	.318	18	7	36%	6%	76	+0.1	.214/.268/.384	.170	.315	20	5	37%	6%	76	+0.0
✕Norel González 2022 · AAA	28	46	51→50	43→40	44	.237/.294/.396	.159	.291	19	9	26%	6%	93	+1.3	.225/.283/.376	.151	.291	18	6	28%	6%	83	+0.6	.212/.274/.357	.145	.275	18	2	29%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Bligh Madris 2023 · MLB	27	46→47	45→50	43→50	45	.230/.285/.361	.131	.290	12	7	25%	7%	79	+0.3	.210/.279/.361	.151	.275	18	13	29%	8%	77	+0.1	.194/.270/.354	.160	.248	21	15	30%	9%	70	-0.2
✕Roger Kieschnick 2013 · AAA	26	44→46	51→55	45	37	.225/.268/.384	.159	.307	19	8	33%	5%	79	+0.3	.212/.262/.356	.144	.294	15	6	32%	6%	69	-0.4	.198/.249/.330	.132	.272	14	4	31%	6%	53	-1.2
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2017 · AAA	26	46	48→50	47→45	39	.230/.275/.372	.142	.311	17	9	31%	6%	78	+0.2	.225/.272/.359	.134	.312	15	9	32%	6%	73	-0.1	.221/.269/.352	.131	.311	14	8	32%	5%	69	-0.2
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2023 · MLB	26	44→43	51→55	49→50	41	.225/.284/.382	.157	.302	19	12	32%	7%	85	+0.7	.208/.276/.381	.173	.269	22	5	31%	7%	82	+0.5	.184/.258/.359	.175	.232	23	1	31%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Slade Heathcott 2018 · MLB	27	47	45	46→50	42	.231/.289/.354	.123	.315	13	10	30%	7%	79	+0.3	.225/.284/.347	.122	.328	12	12	33%	7%	76	+0.0	.205/.260/.287	.081	.336	4	17	38%	6%	45	-0.4
✕Drew Robinson 2019 · MLB	27	43→41	51→55	48→50	44	.215/.286/.381	.166	.317	18	12	36%	9%	85	+0.7	.207/.283/.342	.135	.361	14	14	42%	9%	74	-0.1	.154/.243/.252	.099	.307	11	16	49%	10%	36	-0.8
✕Jon Kemmer 2019 · AAA	28	42→52	51→55	45→50	39	.214/.277/.374	.159	.301	19	8	34%	7%	80	+0.4	.230/.304/.413	.183	.311	23	6	32%	7%	102	+1.9	.228/.318/.431	.203	.302	28	1	33%	8%	109	+1.6
✕Jack Larsen 2022 · AA	27	44→49	51→50	47→45	44	.221/.291/.382	.161	.319	18	9	35%	9%	89	+0.9	.236/.313/.360	.124	.321	12	8	28%	10%	92	+1.2	.232/.318/.332	.100	.316	9	6	27%	10%	83	+0.3
✕John-Ford Griffin 2007 · AAA	27	41→39	52→55	45→40	41	.216/.268/.376	.160	.272	20	4	29%	6%	77	+0.1	.219/.275/.380	.161	.281	19	5	28%	7%	81	+0.4	.215/.276/.370	.154	.277	17	4	28%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Grant Witherspoon 2023 · AAA	26	44→45	52→55	49→50	41	.227/.279/.394	.166	.299	21	13	31%	6%	86	+0.8	.208/.274/.347	.139	.301	16	12	34%	8%	72	-0.2	.173/.252/.292	.119	.260	15	11	37%	9%	46	-0.8
✕Nick Schulz 2018 · AAA	27	42→49	48→50	42→45	44	.212/.282/.349	.137	.283	16	6	30%	8%	76	+0.0	.197/.268/.318	.121	.292	14	8	35%	8%	63	-0.9	.152/.234/.243	.092	.236	12	6	39%	8%	27	-1.8
✕Matt Cepicky 2006 · MLB	28	44→43	48→50	41→30	42	.224/.274/.370	.146	.292	15	5	28%	6%	77	+0.1	.216/.267/.350	.134	.285	14	4	28%	7%	69	-0.4	.204/.257/.337	.133	.270	14	2	29%	7%	62	-0.6
✕Jason Cooper 2007 · AAA	26	40→39	50→55	44→45	40	.208/.265/.364	.157	.282	18	6	33%	6%	72	-0.2	.214/.279/.366	.152	.276	14	8	26%	7%	79	+0.3	.217/.291/.379	.162	.266	13	7	23%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Brad Nelson 2010 · MLB	27	41→48	49→50	44→50	46	.215/.270/.362	.147	.250	18	9	23%	7%	74	-0.1	.215/.279/.363	.148	.255	18	4	23%	8%	78	+0.2	.215/.284/.369	.153	.257	19	2	24%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Darick Hall 2022 · AAA	27	39→38	48→55	42→40	44	.203/.278/.351	.149	.262	16	4	28%	7%	76	+0.0	.223/.279/.403	.180	.271	24	4	27%	6%	89	+1.0	.220/.275/.394	.174	.263	25	3	27%	6%	82	+0.4
✕Daniel Johnson 2022 · MLB	27	43→49	52→55	49→55	40	.221/.277/.393	.171	.301	20	11	33%	6%	85	+0.7	.212/.265/.360	.148	.287	18	15	32%	6%	71	-0.3	.226/.279/.389	.163	.272	20	21	25%	6%	82	+0.4
✕Ben Paulsen 2015 · MLB	27	45→53	50→55	41→40	38	.225/.272/.382	.157	.315	17	4	33%	6%	79	+0.3	.229/.277/.372	.143	.309	14	4	29%	6%	79	+0.3	.227/.276/.354	.127	.302	12	2	28%	6%	69	-0.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)