Jarred Kelenic

CF Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 28 L/L 5'11" / 206 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 3.379 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

AAAArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	MLBATL	449	.231/.288/.393	15	7	88	-0.4
2025	26	AAAATL	399	.213/.286/.309	4	11	29	—	.178/.226/.250
2025	26	MLBATL	65	.167/.231/.300	2	0	49	-0.9
2026	27	AAAScranton/Wilk…	358	.280/.369/.508	15	21	91	—	.233/.296/.405
2026	27	MLBTEX	83	.219/.313/.288	1	0	75	0.0
2027PROJ10% MLB	28	MLBNYY	39	.210/.271/.358	1	1	73	-0.0
2028PROJ	29	MLBNYY	371	.207/.268/.351	11	9	70	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.379First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.2M2028Arb-2$0.4M2029Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%73

Bat Spd69

Avg EV65

xwOBA51

Speed42

CompsBligh Madris (age 28) · Matt Cepicky (age 28) · Grant Witherspoon (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 5273vR 81

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .271 / .358

PA39

HR1

K%33

BB%8

BABIP289

ISO111

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

250.231

POWER55

Barrel%

7311.6

Avg EV

6590.1

Bat Spd

6973.4

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

4227.1

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 508 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

436

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

229

305

▶▶R

ISO

074

176

▶▶R

BABIP

283

295

▶R

30.6%

29.8%

—

BB%

4.2%

7.6%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.379 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	19	ROK	Kingsport Mets	—	251	220	63	10	6	6	26	50	4	15	1	286	372	468	840	182	345	20	10	371	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	92	83	21	4	1	6	8	17	0	3	0	253	319	542	861	289	246	18	9	368	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	190	169	49	13	1	6	17	49	1	10	3	290	358	485	843	195	368	26	9	366	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	West Virginia Power	—	218	191	59	14	3	11	25	45	2	7	4	309	394	586	981	277	356	21	11	425	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	377	337	61	13	1	14	36	106	3	6	4	181	266	350	616	169	216	28	10	278	76	-11	-0	-4	+2	+8	-0.5
2021	22	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	143	125	40	9	1	9	15	22	1	6	1	320	397	624	1.021	304	323	15	10	434	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	181	163	23	5	1	7	16	61	1	5	2	141	222	313	535	172	167	34	9	241	51	-11	+0	+1	+2	+4	-0.3
2022	23	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	394	352	104	32	3	18	35	82	5	9	4	295	367	557	924	261	339	21	9	400	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	416	372	94	25	2	11	41	132	1	13	5	253	329	419	748	167	359	32	10	332	109	+4	+1	-3	-5	+9	0.6
2023	24	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	43	36	11	3	0	1	6	11	0	1	0	306	405	472	877	167	400	26	14	383	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	449	412	95	18	2	15	32	133	1	7	2	231	288	393	681	163	300	30	7	300	88	-6	+1	-4	-5	+10	-0.4
2025	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	65	60	10	2	0	2	5	23	0	0	1	167	231	300	531	133	229	35	8	241	49	-4	-0	-1	-5	+1	-0.9
2025	26	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	399	362	77	17	3	4	36	110	1	11	8	213	286	309	595	97	294	28	9	273	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	83	73	16	2	0	1	10	31	0	0	1	219	313	288	601	68	366	37	12	282	75	-3	-0	+0	+2	+2	0.0
2026	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	358	311	87	16	5	15	43	88	1	21	5	280	369	508	877	228	343	25	12	382	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1571	1417	299	65	6	50	140	486	6	31	15	211	285	371	656	160	280	31	9	293	84	-29	+0	-11	-9	+34	-1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	19	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	251	229	49	7	4	5	17	71	4	15	1	214	280	345	625	131	287	28	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	92	85	21	4	1	6	6	20	0	3	0	247	297	529	826	282	234	22	7	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	190	174	41	9	1	7	12	67	1	10	3	236	289	420	708	184	318	35	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	218	199	48	11	2	9	17	59	2	7	4	241	307	452	760	211	300	27	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	377	337	61	13	1	14	36	106	3	6	4	181	266	350	616	169	216	28	10	281	76	-11	-0	-4	+2	+8	-0.5
2021	22	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	143	130	38	8	1	7	10	27	1	6	1	292	348	531	878	238	309	19	7	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	181	163	23	5	1	7	16	61	1	5	2	141	222	313	535	172	167	34	9	244	51	-11	+0	+1	+2	+4	-0.3
2022	23	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	394	365	97	33	3	12	22	97	5	9	4	266	316	471	788	205	328	25	6	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	416	376	94	25	2	11	37	132	1	13	5	250	319	415	734	165	359	32	9	329	109	+4	+1	-3	-5	+9	0.6
2023	24	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	43	38	11	3	0	1	4	13	0	1	0	289	357	447	805	158	382	30	9	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	449	413	95	18	2	15	31	133	1	7	2	230	285	392	678	162	300	30	7	299	88	-6	+1	-4	-5	+10	-0.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	65	60	10	2	0	2	5	23	0	0	1	167	231	300	531	133	229	35	8	241	49	-4	-0	-1	-5	+1	-0.9
2025	26	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	399	376	67	12	3	3	22	135	1	11	8	178	226	250	476	72	268	34	6	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	83	73	16	2	0	1	10	31	0	0	1	219	313	288	601	68	366	37	12	279	75	-3	-0	+0	+2	+2	0.0
2026	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	358	326	76	13	5	11	28	106	1	21	5	233	296	405	701	172	303	30	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	251	229	49	7	4	5	17	71	4	15	1	214	280	345	625	131	286	28	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	—	251	220	63	10	6	6	26	50	4	15	1	286	372	468	840	182	345	20	10	371	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	500	458	109	24	4	22	35	146	3	20	7	238	296	452	748	214	296	29	7	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	500	443	129	31	5	23	50	111	3	20	7	291	367	540	906	248	339	22	10	392	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	520	467	99	21	2	21	46	133	4	12	5	212	288	400	689	188	247	26	9	307	94	-4	+0	-4	+2	+11	0.6
2021	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	520	462	101	22	2	23	51	128	4	12	5	219	302	424	726	206	248	25	10	321	94	-4	+0	-4	+2	+11	0.6
2022	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	575	528	120	38	4	19	38	158	6	14	6	227	287	422	709	195	285	27	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	575	515	127	37	4	25	51	143	6	14	6	247	322	480	801	233	291	25	9	350	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	459	414	105	28	2	12	41	145	1	14	5	254	322	418	740	164	358	32	9	330	109	+5	+1	-3	-5	+10	0.8
2023	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	459	408	105	28	2	12	47	143	1	14	5	257	336	424	760	167	363	31	10	337	109	+5	+1	-3	-5	+10	0.8
2024	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	449	413	95	18	2	15	31	133	1	7	2	230	285	392	678	162	299	30	7	299	88	-6	+1	-4	-5	+10	-0.4
2024	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	449	412	95	18	2	15	32	133	1	7	2	231	288	393	681	163	300	30	7	300	88	-6	+1	-4	-5	+10	-0.4
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	464	436	77	14	3	5	27	158	1	11	9	177	226	257	483	80	264	34	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	464	422	87	19	3	6	41	133	1	11	9	206	278	308	586	102	286	29	9	268	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	441	399	91	15	5	11	38	137	1	21	6	228	297	373	670	145	316	31	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	441	384	103	18	5	16	53	119	1	21	6	268	358	466	825	198	347	27	12	363	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	251	228	49	7	4	5	17	71	4	15	1	215	280	346	626	132	287	28	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	500	458	109	24	4	22	35	146	3	20	7	238	296	452	748	214	295	29	7	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	520	465	99	21	2	21	46	133	4	12	5	213	288	402	690	189	241	26	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	575	526	120	38	4	19	38	158	6	14	6	228	287	424	711	196	277	27	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	459	414	105	28	2	12	41	145	1	14	5	254	322	418	740	164	361	32	9	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	449	414	95	18	2	15	31	133	1	7	2	229	285	391	677	162	300	30	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	464	433	77	14	3	5	27	158	1	11	9	178	226	259	485	81	262	34	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	441	399	91	15	5	11	38	137	1	21	6	228	297	373	670	145	315	31	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	449	414	95	18	2	15	31	133	1	7	2	229	285	391	677	162	300	30	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	464	433	77	14	3	5	27	158	1	11	9	178	226	259	485	81	262	34	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	441	399	91	15	5	11	38	137	1	21	6	228	297	373	670	145	315	31	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYY	10%	472	433	90	15	4	13	35	156	1	14	3	208	270	351	620	143	288	33	7	276	73	-15	+2	-2	+2	+10	-0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYY	10%	39	36	7	1	0	1	3	13	0	1	0	210	271	358	629	149	289	33	8	280	73	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	371	340	70	12	3	10	27	124	1	9	2	205	266	344	610	139	286	33	7	272	70	-13	+1	-3	+1	+8	-0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	371	340	71	12	3	11	27	124	1	9	2	207	268	351	619	144	286	33	7	276	70	-13	+1	-3	+1	+8	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1942	1757	370	77	9	61	167	610	7	40	17	211	282	369	651	158	282	31	9	290	84	-42	+1	-14	-8	+42	-2.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	124	26	3	20	56	204	2	13	6	211	282	367	649	156	283	31	9	290	84	-14	+0	-5	-3	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4416	4037	888	189	32	131	329	1333	23	134	46	220	283	380	663	160	292	30	7	292	84	-54	+2	-15	-7	+50	-2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	131	28	5	19	48	196	3	20	7	221	282	380	662	160	293	30	7	292	84	-15	+1	-4	-2	+14	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 358 PAwOBA .371 → .302 (−70)K% 24.6% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.58%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	29.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.17%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.73%
HBP% /PA	0.28%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.26%
Singles /BIP	22.87%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.988	×1.003	21.08%
Doubles /BIP	7.17%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.988	×1.003	5.90%
Triples /BIP	2.24%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.988	×1.003	2.16%
Home runs /BIP	6.73%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.003	4.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .371 → .302; ISO .228 → .175; BABIP .343 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 399 PAwOBA .266 → .211 (−55)K% 27.6% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.57%	÷0.976	×1.200	—	—	33.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.02%	÷1.140	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.56%
HBP% /PA	0.25%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.24%
Singles /BIP	21.03%	÷0.968	×0.930	×0.990	×1.018	20.37%
Doubles /BIP	6.75%	÷1.162	×0.830	×0.990	×1.018	4.86%
Triples /BIP	1.19%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.990	×1.018	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	1.59%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×1.018	1.18%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .266 → .211; ISO .097 → .073; BABIP .294 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAATacoma Rainiers · 43 PAwOBA .382 → .336 (−46)K% 25.6% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.58%	÷1.024	×1.200	—	—	29.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.95%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×1.048	9.96%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.00%	÷0.989	×0.930	—	×1.048	27.60%
Doubles /BIP	12.00%	÷0.940	×0.830	—	×1.048	11.10%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷1.157	×0.700	—	×1.048	2.54%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .382 → .336; ISO .167 → .134; BABIP .400 → .382. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 394 PAwOBA .389 → .339 (−50)K% 20.8% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.81%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	24.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.12%	÷1.048	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.61%
HBP% /PA	1.27%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.25%
Singles /BIP	18.89%	÷1.013	×0.930	×0.997	×1.050	18.14%
Doubles /BIP	11.85%	÷0.839	×0.830	×0.997	×1.050	12.27%
Triples /BIP	1.11%	÷0.902	×0.970	×0.997	×1.050	1.25%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.144	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.28%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .389 → .339; ISO .261 → .212; BABIP .339 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 143 PAwOBA .426 → .375 (−51)K% 15.4% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.38%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	18.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.79%	÷1.045	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.79%
HBP% /PA	0.70%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.69%
Singles /BIP	20.39%	÷0.952	×0.930	×0.996	×1.050	20.83%
Doubles /BIP	8.74%	÷0.989	×0.830	×0.996	×1.050	7.66%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷0.977	×0.920	×0.996	×1.050	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	8.74%	÷0.970	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.62%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 98, 3B 95, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .426 → .375; ISO .304 → .249; BABIP .323 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AWest Virginia Power · 218 PAwOBA .414 → .325 (−89)K% 20.6% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.64%	÷1.026	×1.340	—	—	26.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.47%	÷1.013	×0.660	—	×1.030	7.70%
HBP% /PA	0.92%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	0.73%
Singles /BIP	21.23%	÷1.030	×0.920	×0.950	×1.030	18.57%
Doubles /BIP	9.59%	÷0.977	×0.820	×0.950	×1.030	7.87%
Triples /BIP	2.05%	÷1.150	×0.940	×0.950	×1.030	1.64%
Home runs /BIP	7.53%	÷1.016	×0.820	—	×1.030	6.26%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .414 → .325; ISO .277 → .221; BABIP .356 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Modesto Nuts · 190 PAwOBA .362 → .300 (−62)K% 25.8% → 35.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.79%	÷0.976	×1.340	—	—	35.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.95%	÷1.052	×0.710	—	×1.042	6.29%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	0.43%
Singles /BIP	24.17%	÷1.005	×0.910	×0.950	×1.042	21.66%
Doubles /BIP	10.83%	÷1.050	×0.820	×0.950	×1.042	8.38%
Triples /BIP	0.83%	÷1.022	×0.760	×0.950	×1.042	0.61%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷0.768	×0.920	—	×1.042	6.24%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 54, 1B 101, 2B 110, 3B 104, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .362 → .300; ISO .195 → .184; BABIP .368 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAArkansas Travelers · 92 PAwOBA .361 → .345 (−16)K% 18.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.48%	÷1.031	×1.220	—	—	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷1.010	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.33%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.15%	÷0.966	×0.920	×0.950	×1.050	14.39%
Doubles /BIP	6.06%	÷0.916	×0.840	×0.950	×1.050	5.54%
Triples /BIP	1.52%	÷0.922	×0.940	×0.950	×1.050	1.54%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷0.784	×0.800	—	×1.050	9.73%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 84, K 106, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .361 → .345; ISO .289 → .301; BABIP .246 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#2John Shelby'81-'91 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,326 PA	5.0	3,326	70	98	237*	281*	385*	+1	-4	1.7	3.8
/162	664	14	20	+0.1	-0.9	0.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.0	1,981	61	41	211	279	368	+2	-22	1.1	1.5
/162	664	20	14	+0.6	-7.2	0.4	pk7: 2
#3Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#4Dylan Carlsonlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,987 PA	3.0	1,987	43	16	233	312	372	-9	-22	0.8	0.8
/162	664	14	5	-3.0	-7.4	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1
#6Rusty Torres'71-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	35	13	213*	304*	371*	-8	-6	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	15	6	-3.3	-2.7	-0.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jarred Kelenic (OGILVIE)	28	45	55	40	45	206/267/348	141	288	11	11	33%	7%	73	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bligh Madris 2024 · MLB	28	44→48	46→50	47→50	47	219/287/351	132	287	13	10	28%	8%	80	-0.1	205/276/356	151	264	18	14	28%	9%	78	-0.3	191/266/344	153	237	19	13	28%	9%	69	-0.6
✕Matt Cepicky 2006 · MLB	28	44→43	48→50	40→30	43	223/274/369	146	291	15	5	28%	7%	80	-0.2	211/262/341	130	278	13	4	28%	7%	69	-0.9	198/249/322	124	259	12	2	28%	6%	60	-1.1
✕Grant Witherspoon 2024 · AAA	27	43→46	48→50	49→50	42	217/279/359	142	296	16	14	32%	7%	79	-0.2	201/268/320	119	300	13	11	35%	8%	66	-1.1	125/198/210	85	192	11	6	39%	8%	14	-1.3
✕Sócrates Brito 2021 · MLB	28	45→55	49→50	50→55	41	227/273/385	158	295	16	13	28%	6%	83	+0.1	219/272/327	108	293	10	21	28%	6%	69	-0.9	209/261/292	84	281	8	28	27%	5%	55	-1.3
✕Luis Liberato 2024 · AAA	28	45→50	48→50	47→50	47	222/291/372	150	298	15	11	30%	9%	87	+0.4	223/280/339	116	315	10	13	30%	7%	74	-0.5	216/263/303	86	315	5	12	31%	6%	56	-0.9
✕Norel González 2022 · AAA	28	47	49→50	43→40	44	238/293/387	149	289	17	9	24%	6%	91	+0.7	220/278/354	134	284	15	5	27%	6%	78	-0.3	205/266/333	128	265	15	2	28%	6%	66	-0.6
✕Brett Carroll 2011 · MLB	28	40→46	48→55	45→50	43	206/277/346	140	257	15	8	26%	6%	76	-0.4	210/274/349	139	266	16	11	27%	7%	76	-0.4	201/265/338	137	255	17	11	27%	7%	68	-0.7
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2024 · MLB	27	42→45	50	45→50	44	216/288/369	153	282	18	6	30%	8%	86	+0.3	191/259/345	154	252	19	4	31%	7%	70	-0.9	164/231/315	151	210	19	1	32%	6%	49	-1.5
✕Blake Tekotte 2015 · MLB	28	38→47	44→50	43→55	39	194/249/315	121	269	11	10	32%	6%	58	-1.7	219/281/342	123	284	11	10	26%	7%	76	-0.4	230/294/340	110	279	8	10	20%	6%	77	-0.1
✕Narciso Crook 2023 · AAA	28	44→43	50	48→50	39	216/285/370	154	316	17	14	36%	7%	85	+0.2	208/286/343	135	332	14	15	39%	8%	79	-0.2	169/264/285	115	292	12	17	42%	8%	56	-1.0
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2019 · AAA	28	45	45	48→45	40	224/274/343	119	305	12	10	30%	6%	74	-0.6	232/282/372	140	335	15	10	34%	6%	84	+0.1	228/273/371	144	333	16	6	35%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Simon Pond 2006 · MLB	29	43→42	49→50	47→45	41	220/273/365	146	288	17	8	30%	6%	79	-0.2	217/270/347	130	291	13	6	29%	7%	73	-0.6	206/261/330	124	275	11	3	28%	7%	65	-1.1
✕Slade Heathcott 2018 · MLB	27	47→48	45	46→50	43	228/289/352	123	312	13	10	30%	7%	81	-0.1	224/284/343	119	325	11	13	32%	7%	77	-0.3	202/257/282	80	333	4	17	38%	6%	49	-0.5
✕Cory Aldridge 2007 · AAA	28	42→47	47→55	49→45	37	215/254/348	133	294	14	12	32%	5%	68	-1.0	223/278/365	142	298	14	6	29%	7%	80	-0.1	232/278/401	169	295	22	2	29%	6%	87	+0.2
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2022 · AAA	28	42→52	47→50	43→45	43	215/272/360	145	270	13	7	26%	6%	77	-0.3	196/260/336	140	260	14	8	29%	7%	67	-1.1	227/285/352	125	285	12	9	24%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Mike Gerber 2019 · MLB	27	42→52	47→50	45	38	210/262/350	139	303	15	7	35%	6%	71	-0.8	218/271/376	158	323	18	7	36%	6%	80	-0.1	214/268/384	169	317	20	5	37%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Matt Lloyd 2024 · AA	28	43→42	48→45	48→50	41	214/281/353	139	307	16	9	34%	7%	79	-0.2	214/281/334	120	287	12	12	28%	8%	74	-0.5	205/275/320	116	273	13	12	28%	8%	69	-0.5
✕Chad De La Guerra 2021 · AAA	28	45→49	50	46→45	40	229/282/384	155	308	18	7	31%	6%	86	+0.3	208/277/327	119	318	10	14	35%	8%	71	-0.8	153/235/247	93	252	5	17	38%	9%	36	-1.0
✕Stewart Ijames 2017 · AA	28	38	52→60	43→45	39	202/261/367	165	279	20	5	35%	7%	75	-0.5	205/266/341	136	303	15	8	35%	7%	71	-0.8	169/234/307	138	253	17	6	39%	7%	50	-0.6
✕CJ Alexander 2024 · AAA	28	36→46	53→55	51→50	37	202/244/368	167	261	22	13	32%	5%	69	-0.9	216/266/374	158	288	18	7	30%	6%	78	-0.3	209/262/367	158	279	18	4	31%	6%	71	-0.5

Jarred Kelenic

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps