Matt Lloyd
3B Worcester Red Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | AASTL | 486 | .269/.366/.453 | 17 | 16 | 70 | — | .213/.286/.331 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA/ASTL | 339 | .271/.373/.434 | 9 | 8 | 77 | — | .221/.295/.344 |
| 2026 | 30 | AAABOS | 111 | .206/.300/.381 | 5 | 0 | 38 | — | .167/.227/.275 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 31 | MLBBOS | 10 | .233/.301/.364 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 32 | MLBBOS | 26 | .229/.295/.353 | 1 | 0 | 79 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 23 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 87 | 76 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 224 | 322 | 421 | 743 | 197 | 269 | 24 | 11 | 332 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 114 | 98 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 336 | 480 | 816 | 245 | 286 | 32 | 11 | 358 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 86 | 75 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 291 | 333 | 624 | 147 | 250 | 29 | 12 | 286 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | INTL | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 233 | 190 | 56 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 47 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 295 | 417 | 505 | 923 | 211 | 343 | 20 | 17 | 404 | 159 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 486 | 413 | 111 | 25 | 0 | 17 | 56 | 98 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 269 | 366 | 453 | 818 | 184 | 305 | 20 | 12 | 358 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 317 | 272 | 74 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 77 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 272 | 367 | 434 | 801 | 162 | 347 | 24 | 13 | 355 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 22 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 455 | 438 | 892 | 188 | 250 | 14 | 27 | 408 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 111 | 97 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 300 | 381 | 681 | 175 | 246 | 29 | 12 | 305 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 87 | 79 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 165 | 241 | 304 | 545 | 139 | 233 | 34 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 114 | 101 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 198 | 283 | 396 | 679 | 198 | 258 | 37 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 86 | 78 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 233 | 282 | 515 | 128 | 217 | 35 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 486 | 432 | 92 | 21 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 127 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 213 | 286 | 331 | 617 | 118 | 259 | 26 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 317 | 285 | 63 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 97 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 221 | 291 | 340 | 631 | 119 | 301 | 31 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 22 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 364 | 389 | 753 | 167 | 213 | 18 | 18 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 111 | 102 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 227 | 275 | 502 | 108 | 211 | 34 | 7 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 87 | 79 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 165 | 241 | 304 | 545 | 139 | 234 | 34 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 87 | 76 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 224 | 322 | 421 | 743 | 197 | 269 | 24 | 11 | 332 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 114 | 101 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 198 | 283 | 396 | 679 | 198 | 259 | 37 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 114 | 98 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 336 | 480 | 816 | 245 | 286 | 32 | 11 | 358 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 86 | 78 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 233 | 282 | 515 | 128 | 217 | 35 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 86 | 75 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 291 | 333 | 624 | 147 | 250 | 29 | 12 | 286 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | INTL MLE | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 233 | 190 | 56 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 47 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 295 | 417 | 505 | 923 | 211 | 343 | 20 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | INTL RAW | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 233 | 190 | 56 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 47 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 295 | 417 | 505 | 923 | 211 | 343 | 20 | 17 | 404 | 159 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 486 | 432 | 92 | 21 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 127 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 213 | 286 | 331 | 617 | 118 | 269 | 26 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 486 | 413 | 111 | 25 | 0 | 17 | 56 | 98 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 269 | 366 | 453 | 818 | 184 | 305 | 20 | 12 | 358 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 303 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 101 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 221 | 296 | 343 | 639 | 122 | 303 | 30 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 339 | 288 | 78 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 47 | 80 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 271 | 373 | 434 | 807 | 163 | 342 | 24 | 14 | 358 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 111 | 102 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 227 | 275 | 502 | 108 | 226 | 34 | 7 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA RAW | Worcester Red Sox | — | 111 | 97 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 300 | 381 | 681 | 175 | 246 | 29 | 12 | 305 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 87 | 79 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 165 | 241 | 304 | 545 | 139 | 233 | 34 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 114 | 101 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 198 | 283 | 396 | 679 | 198 | 258 | 37 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 86 | 78 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 233 | 282 | 515 | 128 | 217 | 35 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 486 | 439 | 92 | 21 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 127 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 210 | 286 | 326 | 611 | 116 | 259 | 26 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 304 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 101 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 220 | 296 | 342 | 638 | 122 | 295 | 30 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 111 | 102 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 227 | 275 | 502 | 108 | 211 | 34 | 7 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 486 | 439 | 92 | 21 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 127 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 210 | 286 | 326 | 611 | 116 | 259 | 26 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 304 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 101 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 220 | 296 | 342 | 638 | 122 | 295 | 30 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 111 | 102 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 227 | 275 | 502 | 108 | 211 | 34 | 7 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | BOS | 10% | 200 | 181 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 57 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 294 | 353 | 648 | 127 | 301 | 28 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB CTX | BOS | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 301 | 364 | 664 | 130 | 312 | 30 | 10 | 298 | 83 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | BOS | 27% | 95 | 87 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 289 | 343 | 632 | 121 | 296 | 28 | 8 | 284 | 79 | -2 | +0 | -4 | +0 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | BOS | 27% | 26 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 295 | 353 | 649 | 125 | 307 | 27 | 8 | 291 | 79 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 26 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 308 | 417 | 724 | 167 | 312 | 27 | 8 | 291 | 43 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 150 | 25 | 0 | 25 | 50 | 175 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 308 | 417 | 724 | 167 | 312 | 27 | 8 | 291 | 43 | -17 | +0 | -24 | +2 | +14 | -2.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1656 | 1466 | 317 | 69 | 1 | 43 | 157 | 472 | 13 | 33 | 9 | 216 | 298 | 353 | 650 | 136 | 282 | 29 | 9 | 231 | 43 | -5 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 124 | 27 | 0 | 17 | 62 | 185 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 216 | 297 | 351 | 648 | 136 | 282 | 28 | 10 | 231 | 43 | -15 | +2 | -11 | +2 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 111 PAwOBA .296 → .224 (−71)K% 28.8% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.83% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 7.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.990 | ×0.972 | 17.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×0.972 | 2.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 5.23% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .296 → .224; ISO .175 → .121; BABIP .246 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 317 PAwOBA .347 → .280 (−67)K% 24.3% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.29% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.30% | ÷0.954 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 8.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.10% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×0.980 | ×0.982 | 21.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×0.982 | 7.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.980 | ×0.982 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.10% | ÷0.869 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 3.25% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .347 → .280; ISO .162 → .127; BABIP .347 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 22 PAwOBA .399 → .311 (−88)K% 13.6% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.940 | 17.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.940 | 20.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.973 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.940 | 5.94% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .399 → .311; ISO .188 → .156; BABIP .250 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 486 PAwOBA .356 → .272 (−84)K% 20.2% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.16% | ÷0.943 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.32% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 7.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.90% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×0.968 | 19.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.94% | ÷0.940 | ×0.840 | ×0.981 | ×0.968 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.981 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.40% | ÷1.386 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 3.02% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .356 → .272; ISO .184 → .121; BABIP .305 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 86 PAwOBA .279 → .217 (−62)K% 29.1% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.07% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.63% | ÷1.019 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 7.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 12.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.084 | ×0.910 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 8.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.19% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 82, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .279 → .217; ISO .147 → .115; BABIP .250 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 114 PAwOBA .351 → .289 (−62)K% 31.6% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.58% | ÷1.040 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.936 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 7.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.97% | ÷1.011 | ×0.940 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 20.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.84% | ÷1.183 | ×0.870 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 3.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.920 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.29% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 9.26% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 102, 2B 137, 3B 82, K 108, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .351 → .289; ISO .245 → .194; BABIP .286 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ADayton Dragons · 87 PAwOBA .323 → .242 (−82)K% 24.1% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.14% | ÷0.953 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.49% | ÷1.044 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.55% | ÷1.033 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 12.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.91% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 9.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.024 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.45% | ÷0.950 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 4.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 105, K 91, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .323 → .242; ISO .197 → .151; BABIP .269 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .