Emmanuel Rodriguez

CF St. Paul Saints

Age 24 L/L 5'11" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.093 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	AAA/AAMIN	197	.286/.467/.578	9	9	139	—	.238/.381/.495
2025	22	AAA/A/ROK/INTL2 orgs	327	.273/.429/.453	10	13	113	—	.231/.352/.321
2026	23	AAA/A+MIN	247	.277/.437/.497	11	7	113	—	.235/.359/.391
2026	23	MLBMIN	48	.178/.229/.400	2	0	71	0.0
2027PROJ34% MLB	24	MLBMIN	71	.219/.339/.374	2	2	105	0.3
2028PROJ58% MLB	25	MLBMIN	172	.224/.342/.391	6	4	110	0.8
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBMIN	229	.227/.342/.402	8	6	112	1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.093First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$4M2031Arb-2$6M2032Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV99

BB%94

Chase%85

Speed67

K%30

Z-Con%22

Form.217/.318/.386 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .219/.336/.373

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 75%

CompsBo Naylor (age 24) · Wilyer Abreu (age 25) · Will Benson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†105

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .339 / .374

PA71

HR2

K%31

BB%14

BABIP301

ISO133

MLB%34%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT

xAVG

500.251

POWER

Barrel%

9020.7

Avg EV

7290.6

SPEED

Sprint

6328.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%32%▼33% over 48 PA (60d) · proj 31%

BB%11%▼▼6% over 48 PA (60d) · proj 14%

ISO.169▲.222 over 45 AB (60d) · proj .154

BABIP.298·.222 over 27 BIP (60d) · proj .301

SLASH.217/.318/.386·proj .219/.336/.373

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.093 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.6M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$7M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$6M	+$2M
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$27M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	153	126	27	5	2	10	23	56	3	9	4	214	349	524	872	310	279	37	15	378	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	199	136	37	5	3	9	57	52	4	11	5	272	497	551	1.049	279	364	26	29	456	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	455	354	85	13	9	16	92	134	5	20	5	240	404	463	867	223	332	29	20	384	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	30	23	5	0	0	1	7	12	0	0	0	217	400	348	748	130	400	40	23	353	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	167	124	37	12	2	8	42	46	1	9	3	298	479	621	1.100	323	414	28	25	472	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	212	163	42	7	1	6	45	67	4	9	3	258	429	423	853	166	400	32	21	390	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	36	28	9	1	0	0	8	12	0	1	0	321	472	357	829	36	562	33	22	392	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	FCL Twins	—	19	17	5	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	294	368	353	721	59	455	32	11	332	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	60	48	14	3	1	4	6	18	5	3	0	292	424	646	1.070	354	370	30	10	451	192	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	48	45	8	2	1	2	3	16	0	0	1	178	229	400	629	222	222	33	6	274	71	-2	-0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2026	23	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	220	172	45	6	1	11	42	58	4	7	3	262	417	500	917	238	324	26	19	404	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	27	19	8	1	0	0	6	2	2	0	0	421	593	474	1.066	53	471	7	22	492	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	48	45	8	2	1	2	3	16	0	0	1	178	229	400	629	222	222	33	6	274	72	-2	-0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	153	134	16	3	1	6	15	81	3	9	4	119	224	291	515	172	201	53	10	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	199	154	35	5	3	8	39	71	4	11	5	227	396	455	850	227	331	36	20	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	455	375	70	10	7	11	71	174	5	20	5	187	324	339	662	152	298	38	16	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	30	25	5	0	0	1	5	14	0	0	0	200	333	320	653	120	376	47	17	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	167	135	33	10	2	8	31	58	1	9	3	244	389	526	915	281	364	35	19	391	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	212	176	41	7	1	3	32	81	4	9	3	233	363	335	698	102	413	38	15	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	36	31	7	1	0	0	5	16	0	1	0	226	333	258	591	32	497	44	14	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	19	18	4	1	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	222	263	278	541	56	348	47	5	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	48	45	8	2	1	2	3	16	0	0	1	178	229	400	629	222	222	33	6	274	71	-2	-0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2026	23	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	220	184	40	5	1	8	30	70	4	7	3	217	339	386	725	168	290	32	14	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	27	21	8	1	0	0	4	3	2	0	0	381	519	429	947	48	426	11	15	421	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	153	134	16	3	1	6	15	81	3	9	4	119	224	291	515	172	208	53	10	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	153	126	27	5	2	10	23	56	3	9	4	214	349	524	872	310	279	37	15	378	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	199	154	35	5	3	8	39	71	4	11	5	227	396	455	850	227	351	36	20	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	199	136	37	5	3	9	57	52	4	11	5	272	497	551	1.049	279	364	26	29	456	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	455	375	70	10	7	11	71	174	5	20	5	187	324	339	662	152	304	38	16	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	455	354	85	13	9	16	92	134	5	20	5	240	404	463	867	223	332	29	20	384	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	197	160	37	10	2	8	36	73	1	9	3	231	376	469	844	237	367	37	18	373	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	197	147	42	12	2	9	49	58	1	9	3	286	467	578	1.045	293	412	29	25	454	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	327	270	63	10	1	4	47	130	9	13	3	233	365	322	687	89	431	40	14	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	327	256	70	12	2	10	61	103	9	13	3	273	429	453	883	180	417	31	19	398	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	295	249	56	8	2	10	38	88	6	7	4	225	341	394	735	169	301	30	13	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	295	236	61	9	2	13	51	76	6	7	4	258	403	479	882	220	322	26	17	391	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	153	134	16	3	1	6	15	81	3	9	4	119	224	291	515	172	201	53	10	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	199	154	35	5	3	8	39	71	4	11	5	227	396	455	850	227	331	36	20	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	455	376	70	10	7	11	71	174	5	20	5	186	324	338	661	152	298	38	16	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	197	158	37	10	2	8	36	73	1	9	3	234	376	475	850	241	366	37	18	373	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	327	268	63	10	1	4	47	130	9	13	3	235	365	325	690	90	420	40	14	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	295	249	56	8	2	10	38	88	6	7	4	225	341	394	735	169	291	30	13	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	197	158	37	10	2	8	36	73	1	9	3	234	376	475	850	241	366	37	18	373	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	327	268	63	10	1	4	47	130	9	13	3	235	365	325	690	90	420	40	14	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	295	249	56	8	2	10	38	88	6	7	4	225	341	394	735	169	291	30	13	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	345	289	63	10	2	10	47	105	6	9	2	219	339	373	712	154	301	30	14	323	105	+2	+1	+2	+1	+7	1.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	71	60	12	2	0	2	10	22	1	2	0	219	339	374	713	155	301	31	14	324	105	+0	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	58%	296	249	56	9	2	10	40	89	5	7	2	224	341	390	732	166	301	30	14	330	110	+3	+1	+1	+1	+6	1.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	69%	330	278	64	10	2	12	44	98	5	8	2	227	342	401	743	174	301	30	13	334	112	+5	+1	+2	+1	+7	1.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	73%	334	283	65	10	2	12	43	98	5	8	2	227	340	399	739	172	300	29	13	332	111	+4	+1	+2	+1	+7	1.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	74%	334	283	65	11	2	11	43	98	5	7	2	226	337	394	732	168	298	29	13	329	109	+4	+1	+1	+1	+7	1.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	73%	323	275	62	10	1	11	40	94	5	5	1	225	334	389	723	164	297	29	12	325	106	+2	+1	+0	+1	+7	1.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	73%	312	266	59	10	1	10	39	92	4	4	1	222	330	381	711	159	295	29	12	321	103	+1	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.9
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIN	72%	294	252	55	9	1	9	36	88	4	1	1	218	326	371	697	153	292	30	12	315	100	-0	-0	-1	+1	+6	0.6
2035	32	MLB MLE	MIN	72%	271	232	49	8	1	8	33	82	4	1	1	213	320	359	679	146	288	30	12	308	95	-2	-0	-2	+1	+6	0.3
2036	33	MLB MLE	MIN	78%	237	203	43	7	1	7	29	73	3	1	0	207	313	344	657	137	283	31	12	299	89	-3	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	58%	172	144	33	5	1	6	23	52	3	4	1	224	342	391	733	167	301	30	13	330	110	+2	+0	+1	+1	+4	0.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	69%	229	193	44	7	1	8	30	68	4	6	1	227	342	402	744	174	301	30	13	334	112	+3	+1	+1	+1	+5	1.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	73%	242	205	46	8	1	8	31	71	4	6	1	227	340	399	740	172	300	29	13	332	111	+3	+1	+1	+1	+5	1.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	74%	248	210	47	8	1	8	32	73	4	5	1	226	337	395	733	169	299	29	13	329	109	+3	+1	+1	+1	+5	1.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	73%	236	202	46	8	1	8	29	69	3	4	1	225	334	390	724	165	297	29	12	326	106	+2	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	73%	227	194	43	7	1	7	28	67	3	3	1	222	331	382	712	160	295	30	12	321	103	+1	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIN	72%	213	182	41	7	1	7	26	64	3	1	1	218	326	372	698	154	292	30	12	316	100	-0	-0	-1	+1	+5	0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	MIN	72%	195	166	36	6	1	6	24	59	3	1	0	213	320	359	680	147	288	30	12	308	95	-1	+0	-2	+1	+4	0.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	MIN	78%	186	160	33	5	1	5	22	58	2	1	0	207	313	344	657	138	283	31	12	300	89	-2	+0	-2	+1	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1996	1701	377	63	10	65	248	597	29	31	8	222	331	385	716	163	298	30	12	321	103	+8	+3	-2	+8	+43	6.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	554	123	21	3	21	81	194	9	10	3	222	331	384	715	162	298	30	12	321	103	+3	+1	-1	+3	+14	2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4567	3840	833	136	30	143	621	1493	71	116	37	217	336	380	716	163	310	33	14	320	103	+14	+4	-1	+12	+65	9.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	547	118	19	4	20	88	212	10	17	5	216	335	375	710	159	307	33	14	320	103	+3	+1	-0	+3	+14	2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 220 PAwOBA .398 → .325 (−73)K% 26.4% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.36%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	31.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.09%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	13.83%
HBP% /PA	1.82%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.79%
Singles /BIP	23.68%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.959	×1.050	22.18%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.959	×1.050	4.40%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.959	×1.050	0.86%
Home runs /BIP	9.65%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.09%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .398 → .325; ISO .238 → .185; BABIP .324 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 27 PAwOBA .481 → .421 (−60)K% 7.4% → 9.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.41%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	9.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.22%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.998	15.75%
HBP% /PA	7.41%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	5.84%
Singles /BIP	41.18%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.998	37.81%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×0.998	4.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .481 → .421; ISO .053 → .047; BABIP .471 → .426. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 212 PAwOBA .382 → .322 (−59)K% 31.6% → 38.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.60%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	38.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.23%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×1.050	15.05%
HBP% /PA	1.89%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.86%
Singles /BIP	29.17%	÷0.944	×0.930	×1.048	×1.050	31.62%
Doubles /BIP	7.29%	÷0.938	×0.830	×1.048	×1.050	7.10%
Triples /BIP	1.04%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.048	×1.050	1.11%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷1.253	×0.700	—	×1.050	3.67%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .382 → .322; ISO .166 → .118; BABIP .400 → .413. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 36 PAwOBA .383 → .282 (−101)K% 33.3% → 45.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷0.994	×1.360	—	—	45.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.22%	÷1.054	×0.690	—	—	14.54%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.00%
Singles /BIP	50.00%	÷1.029	×0.920	—	—	44.72%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.032	×0.830	—	—	5.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.898	×0.800	—	—	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .383 → .282; ISO .036 → .026; BABIP .562 → .497. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Twins · 19 PAwOBA .323 → .203 (−120)K% 31.6% → 45.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.58%	÷0.998	×1.440	—	—	45.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷0.981	×0.620	—	×0.975	6.49%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Singles /BIP	36.36%	÷1.028	×0.820	—	×0.975	28.27%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.979	×0.720	—	×0.975	6.52%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.006	×0.780	—	×0.975	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 96, 3B 100, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .323 → .203; ISO .059 → .035; BABIP .455 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 167 PAwOBA .460 → .391 (−69)K% 27.5% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.54%	÷0.964	×1.220	—	—	34.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	24.55%	÷0.963	×0.700	—	×1.050	18.73%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	0.55%
Singles /BIP	19.23%	÷1.091	×0.920	×0.986	×1.050	16.79%
Doubles /BIP	15.38%	÷0.979	×0.840	×0.986	×1.050	13.66%
Triples /BIP	2.56%	÷1.126	×0.940	×0.986	×1.050	2.22%
Home runs /BIP	10.26%	÷0.845	×0.800	—	×1.050	10.19%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 118, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 93, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .460 → .391; ISO .323 → .300; BABIP .414 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 30 PAwOBA .345 → .270 (−75)K% 40.0% → 48.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	40.00%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	48.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.33%	÷0.985	×0.690	—	×1.050	17.17%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	36.36%	÷1.010	×0.930	—	×1.050	35.17%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.830	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.043	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.43%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 109, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .345 → .270; ISO .130 → .087; BABIP .400 → .376. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 455 PAwOBA .379 → .298 (−81)K% 29.5% → 38.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.45%	÷0.977	×1.270	—	—	38.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.22%	÷0.966	×0.710	—	×1.042	15.48%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	0.90%
Singles /BIP	21.36%	÷0.989	×0.920	×0.988	×1.042	20.45%
Doubles /BIP	5.91%	÷1.051	×0.810	×0.988	×1.042	4.68%
Triples /BIP	4.09%	÷0.994	×0.850	×0.988	×1.042	3.60%
Home runs /BIP	7.27%	÷1.134	×0.800	—	×1.042	5.35%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 99, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .379 → .298; ISO .223 → .163; BABIP .332 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	5.5	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
/162	664	20	13	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13
#2Roger Repoz'64-'72 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,471 PA	3.7	2,471	82	26	233*	321*	434*	-12	-2	7.8	8.1
/162	664	22	7	-3.4	-0.5	2.1	pk7: 8
#3Rich Becker'93-'00 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,620 PA	3.9	2,620	45	66	242*	340*	358*	-5	+15	7.5	7.9
/162	664	11	17	-1.3	+3.9	1.9	pk7: 8
#4Peter Bourjoslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,241 PA	3.4	2,241	42	66	241	298	382	-0	+38	7.4	7.5
/162	664	12	20	-0.1	+11.3	2.2	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.0	2,019	65	31	222	330	384	+5	+15	7.5	7.0
/162	664	21	10	+1.5	+4.9	2.5	pk7: 7
#5Ruben Rivera'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,818 PA	2.7	1,818	64	50	206*	292*	376*	-1	+20	4.0	4.0
/162	664	23	18	-0.3	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 4
#6Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Emmanuel Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	217/336/370	153	301	6	5	31%	14%	105	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bo Naylor 2024 · MLB	24	43→46	53→55	52→50	54	223/318/403	180	278	21	12	27%	12%	105	+1.7	208/287/377	169	258	20	8	27%	10%	87	+0.4	189/266/349	160	233	20	5	28%	9%	73	-0.4
●Wilyer Abreu 2024 · MLB	25	44→48	51→60	52→50	53	225/318/385	160	296	20	17	30%	12%	100	+1.3	238/313/429	191	290	23	11	25%	10%	108	+1.9	237/310/437	200	277	24	9	24%	9%	110	+1.8
●Will Benson 2023 · MLB	25	44→53	51→55	53→55	52	219/322/384	165	308	17	16	32%	12%	102	+1.5	224/315/401	177	321	18	23	33%	11%	103	+1.5	217/302/399	182	306	20	24	33%	10%	97	+0.8
✕Cavan Biggio 2020 · MLB	25	46→49	52→55	53→50	57	229/336/403	174	302	20	15	29%	13%	111	+2.1	228/334/386	158	299	17	11	27%	13%	107	+1.8	214/324/356	142	282	14	8	27%	13%	97	+0.6
●Trent Grisham 2020 · MLB	23	44→49	51→60	53→55	52	225/309/387	162	281	18	13	26%	10%	97	+1.1	234/320/411	177	288	20	14	25%	10%	107	+1.8	213/319/407	194	233	27	6	22%	13%	107	+1.3
●Edouard Julien 2023 · AA	24	51→55	49→50	52→50	55	236/346/388	153	353	17	18	34%	14%	112	+2.2	236/340/381	145	349	16	10	33%	13%	107	+1.9	230/336/367	137	339	15	8	33%	13%	102	+1.3
✕Davis Schneider 2024 · MLB	25	44→45	56→55	51→50	53	228/330/428	200	300	23	11	30%	12%	115	+2.4	209/318/382	173	278	20	9	30%	13%	100	+1.3	187/312/348	161	246	20	8	30%	14%	91	+0.4
✕Zack Collins 2020 · MLB	25	41→42	51→50	48→40	50	206/304/368	161	304	18	3	36%	12%	92	+0.7	204/299/355	151	293	16	5	33%	11%	86	+0.3	184/277/316	132	274	14	4	35%	11%	69	-0.5
●Derek Norris 2013 · MLB	24	40→50	52→55	50	50	210/295/379	168	266	20	12	29%	10%	91	+0.6	246/322/402	156	302	17	8	23%	10%	105	+1.7	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43→44	52→55	57→50	48	221/305/386	165	294	19	14	30%	10%	96	+1.0	218/292/386	168	268	20	8	26%	9%	91	+0.7	211/285/386	175	250	21	5	25%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Elijah Dukes 2009 · MLB	25	48→54	54→55	49→50	59	244/352/432	188	293	21	16	23%	13%	123	+3.0	246/333/406	160	289	15	12	20%	11%	110	+2.1	247/332/400	153	285	13	9	17%	10%	108	+1.6
✕Robert Kral 2014 · AAA	25	44→41	51→55	47→40	59	225/327/388	163	262	18	4	21%	12%	104	+1.6	195/276/316	121	262	12	5	29%	10%	69	-0.9	149/232/238	90	200	11	2	30%	10%	34	-1.3
✕MJ Melendez 2024 · MLB	25	44→48	54→60	43→50	52	229/311/411	181	285	21	6	27%	10%	103	+1.6	209/278/388	179	269	20	10	29%	8%	86	+0.3	194/263/380	185	247	22	10	31%	8%	77	-0.3
✕Triston Casas 2024 · MLB	24	47→49	57→60	47→40	57	247/341/446	199	295	25	3	25%	12%	122	+3.0	235/319/424	189	296	24	4	28%	10%	109	+2.0	216/300/403	187	273	25	0	30%	10%	98	+0.4
●Colby Rasmus 2012 · MLB	25	47→54	53→65	47→50	50	243/311/424	181	289	20	8	23%	9%	106	+1.8	238/300/430	192	293	23	5	27%	8%	104	+1.6	243/309/466	223	315	29	3	32%	8%	116	+1.9
●Colton Cowser 2024 · MLB	24	52	47→55	49→50	50	241/339/380	138	355	14	11	33%	11%	107	+1.8	227/308/399	172	312	22	14	32%	9%	100	+1.3	219/300/395	176	292	24	15	32%	9%	97	+0.8
●Travis Shaw 2014 · AA	24	42→52	49→60	48→45	50	213/295/364	151	276	16	8	28%	10%	87	+0.4	236/295/388	152	290	17	5	24%	7%	92	+0.7	246/323/457	211	279	27	7	22%	10%	120	+2.6
●Miguel Vargas 2024 · MLB	24	48→54	49→55	52→50	53	240/320/398	158	282	16	12	21%	10%	103	+1.6	226/321/395	169	261	18	12	20%	11%	103	+1.6	226/328/409	183	251	21	13	19%	12%	110	+2.0
✕Josh VanMeter 2020 · MLB	25	48→50	51→55	50	48	243/305/411	168	290	17	15	23%	8%	101	+1.4	225/306/395	170	280	19	11	25%	10%	98	+1.2	199/304/344	144	254	16	7	27%	13%	85	+0.1
●Oneil Cruz 2023 · MLB	24	45→55	56→60	54→60	43	236/297/434	198	306	24	20	31%	8%	103	+1.6	237/306/426	189	314	23	24	30%	9%	105	+1.7	242/319/436	194	325	25	34	32%	10%	113	+2.0

Emmanuel Rodriguez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps