Colton Cowser

RF Baltimore Orioles
Age 27 L/R 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB HR +9% Svc 3.250 · Ctrl thru 2029
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202424MLBBAL561.242/.323/.4472491122.2
202525MLBBAL360.196/.269/.3851614790.3
202626MLBBAL392.226/.320/.3701310930.3
2027PROJ27MLBBAL320.234/.318/.4251491051.0
2028PROJ92% MLB28MLBBAL297.232/.316/.4201371020.7
2029PROJ92% MLB29MLBBAL287.229/.312/.4131261000.6
Last 3 seasons WAR 2.8  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2029Service3.250First FA2030
2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$4M2029Arb-3$4M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Barrel%79
Bat Spd79
Speed66
Avg EV60
xwOBA57
Form.213/.297/.376 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .229/.311/.413
CompsJack Suwinski (age 26) · Derek Fisher (age 27) · Ryan Noda (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 96105vR 108
AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .318 / .425
PA320
HR14
SB9
K%31
BB%10
BABIP301
ISO191
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +1.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+2BATRUN: +1.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +3.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+3FLDPOS: -3.4 runs (Positional adjustment)-3POSREP: +6.9 runs (Replacement-level credit)+7REPTotal WAR: +1.20+1.2WAR
0.00.81.71.20.70.627282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT40
xAVG
110.219
POWER60
Barrel%
7912.5
Avg EV
6089.8
Bat Spd
7974.4
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED50
Sprint
6628.1
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%34%▼▼37% over 71 PA (60d) · proj 31%
BB%10%·10% over 71 PA (60d) · proj 10%
ISO.163▼.109 over 64 AB (60d) · proj .184
HR/BB6.1%▼2.6% over 38 BBE (60d) · proj 7.3%
BABIP.299·.351 over 37 BIP (60d) · proj .296
SLASH.213/.297/.376▼▼proj .229/.311/.413
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 979 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
238
741
—
wRC+
81
102
▶▶R
wOBA
288
319
▶R
ISO
173
195
▶R
BABIP
285
297
▶R
K%
35.3%
31.6%
▶R
BB%
5.0%
9.4%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2023
Service   3.250 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2030
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$2M+1.2$10M+$7M
2028Arb-2$4M+0.7$3M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Arb-3$4M+0.6$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $2M $14M +$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202121 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 12498 34501 22193 42 347480429908 82418 1518 414 129 — — — — — —
202121 ROKFCL Orioles Orange — 2522 11301 340 32 5005607731.333 273588 1612 574 160 — — — — — —
202222 AAANorfolk Tides — 124105 23705 13386 00 219339429767 210290 3110 345 76 — — — — — —
202222 AABowie Baysox — 224176 6010010 36579 22 3414755681.043 227446 2516 453 143 — — — — — —
202222 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 278229 591924 45793 161 258386410797 153374 2816 361 74 — — — — — —
202323 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 7761 7200 13222 10 115289148437 33175 2917 229 39 -6 +0 -1 +2 +2 -0.3
202323 AAANorfolk Tides — 399323 9718117 641075 93 300423520944 220390 2716 410 120 — — — — — —
202424 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 561499 12124324 521727 94 242323447769 204317 319 339 112 +8 +0 +7 -6 +12 2.2
202525 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 360327 6414016 271286 140 196269385655 190262 368 292 79 -9 +3 +0 +1 +8 0.3
202626 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 392341 7710013 461211 104 226320370689 144305 3112 310 93 -3 +0 +2 -4 +8 0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 13901228 26950353 13844316 348 219306394700 175292 3210 313 98 -4 +4 +8 -7 +30 3.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202121 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 124105 34401 15253 42 324423390813 67404 2012 359 129 — — — — — —
202121 ROK MLEFCL Orioles Orange — 2523 8201 260 32 348400565965 217452 248 405 160 — — — — — —
202222 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 124109 21604 9456 00 193290358648 165280 367 281 76 — — — — — —
202222 AA MLEBowie Baysox — 224186 55807 26709 22 296407452859 156422 3112 380 143 — — — — — —
202222 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 278246 521623 281053 161 211300329629 118342 3810 278 74 — — — — — —
202323 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 7761 7200 13222 10 115289148437 33175 2917 226 39 -6 +0 -1 +2 +2 -0.3
202323 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 399340 9016113 471315 93 265362432795 168367 3312 346 120 — — — — — —
202424 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 561501 11923324 501727 94 238315439755 202317 319 333 112 +8 +0 +7 -6 +12 2.2
202525 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 360328 6314015 261286 140 192264372636 180262 367 284 79 -9 +3 +0 +1 +8 0.3
202626 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 392341 7510012 461211 104 220314355669 135305 3112 305 93 -3 +0 +2 -4 +8 0.3
202121 A MLE2 teams — 149128 42602 17313 74 328419422841 94417 2111 367 134 — — — — — —
202121 A RAW2 teams — 149120 45802 25233 74 375493492985 117448 1517 441 134 — — — — — —
202222 A+ MLE3 teams — 626541 12830214 6322018 183 237336377713 140367 3510 315 99 — — — — — —
202222 A+ RAW3 teams — 626510 14236219 9417418 183 278408469877 190383 2815 391 99 — — — — — —
202323 AAA MLE2 teams — 476401 9718113 601537 103 242350389739 147347 3213 327 107 — — — — — —
202323 AAA RAW2 teams — 476384 10420117 771297 103 271402461863 190355 2716 381 107 — — — — — —
202424 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 561501 11923324 501727 94 238315439755 202308 319 333 112 +8 +0 +7 -6 +12 2.2
202424 MLB RAWBaltimore Orioles — 561499 12124324 521727 94 242323447769 204317 319 339 112 +8 +0 +7 -6 +12 2.2
202525 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 360328 6314015 261286 140 192264372636 180259 367 284 79 -9 +3 +0 +1 +8 0.3
202525 MLB RAWBaltimore Orioles — 360327 6414016 271286 140 196269385655 190262 368 292 79 -9 +3 +0 +1 +8 0.3
202626 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 392341 7510012 461211 104 220314355669 135299 3112 305 93 -3 +0 +2 -4 +8 0.3
202626 MLB RAWBaltimore Orioles — 392341 7710013 461211 104 226320370689 144305 3112 310 93 -3 +0 +2 -4 +8 0.3
202121 A MLE2 teams — 149128 42602 17313 74 328419422841 94412 2111 367 134 — — — — — —
202222 A+ MLE3 teams — 626540 12830214 6322018 183 237336378714 141358 3510 315 99 — — — — — —
202323 AAA MLE2 teams — 476406 9718113 601537 103 239350384735 145336 3213 327 107 — — — — — —
202424 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 561499 11923324 501727 94 238315441756 202317 319 333 112 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 360325 6314015 261286 140 194264375639 182262 367 284 79 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 392342 7510012 461211 104 219314354668 135305 3112 305 93 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 561499 11923324 501727 94 238315441756 202317 319 333 112 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 360325 6314015 261286 140 194264375639 182262 367 284 79 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 392342 7510012 461211 104 219314354668 135305 3112 305 93 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLEBAL 100% 419370 8513118 421294 123 229314413727 184296 3110 323 105 +2 +1 +4 -4 +9 1.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXBAL 100% 320282 6610114 32993 92 234318425743 192301 3110 329 105 +2 +1 +3 -3 +7 1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLEBAL 92% 323285 6510014 321003 82 227311408720 181295 3110 320 102 +1 +1 +3 -3 +7 0.8
202929 MLB MLEBAL 92% 312276 6210013 31982 62 224308401709 177292 3110 316 100 -0 +0 +2 -3 +7 0.6
203030 MLB MLEBAL 92% 305270 599012 30972 51 220304391696 171289 3210 310 96 -1 +1 +1 -3 +7 0.4
202828 MLB CTXBAL 92% 297263 6110013 30922 72 232316420735 188299 3110 326 102 +1 +1 +2 -3 +6 0.7
202929 MLB CTXBAL 92% 287254 579012 29902 61 229312413725 184297 3110 322 100 -0 +1 +2 -3 +6 0.6
203030 MLB CTXBAL 92% 281249 569012 28892 41 225308403711 178294 3210 316 96 -1 +0 +1 -3 +6 0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 22551994 44378390 22571422 5112 222308400708 178294 3210 316 101 -4 +5 +13 -16 +49 4.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650575 12722126 652066 153 221307398705 177292 3210 316 101 -1 +2 +4 -5 +14 1.4
Career— MLE — 38243353 7751407133 387121952 9625 231320396716 165317 3210 318 101 -2 +6 +16 -21 +57 5.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650570 13224123 662079 164 232321398719 167317 3210 318 101 -1 +2 +4 -5 +14 1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 399 PAwOBA .404 → .346 (−58)K% 26.8% → 32.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.82%÷0.980×1.200——32.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.54%÷0.948×0.690—×1.05011.88%
HBP% /PA1.25%—×0.940—×1.0501.24%
Singles /BIP28.24%÷1.019×0.930×1.024×1.05027.71%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷1.015×0.830×1.024×1.0507.32%
Triples /BIP0.46%÷0.900×0.970×1.024×1.0500.54%
Home runs /BIP7.87%÷0.995×0.700—×1.0505.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .404 → .346; ISO .220 → .172; BABIP .390 → .367. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 278 PAwOBA .354 → .278 (−75)K% 28.4% → 37.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.42%÷0.991×1.310——37.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.19%÷0.966×0.600—×1.01210.17%
HBP% /PA1.08%—×0.770—×1.0120.84%
Singles /BIP22.67%÷0.980×0.870×1.050×1.01221.39%
Doubles /BIP12.67%÷0.955×0.780×1.050×1.01211.00%
Triples /BIP1.33%÷0.964×0.850×1.050×1.0121.25%
Home runs /BIP2.67%÷1.029×0.880—×1.0122.31%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .354 → .278; ISO .153 → .127; BABIP .374 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABowie Baysox · 224 PAwOBA .448 → .380 (−68)K% 25.4% → 31.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.45%÷0.992×1.220——31.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.07%÷0.998×0.700—×1.04211.74%
HBP% /PA4.02%—×0.850—×1.0423.56%
Singles /BIP33.61%÷0.995×0.970×0.988×1.04233.73%
Doubles /BIP8.40%÷1.055×0.860×0.988×1.0427.05%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.950×0.988×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP8.40%÷1.170×0.780—×1.0425.84%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .448 → .380; ISO .227 → .167; BABIP .446 → .422. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 124 PAwOBA .336 → .281 (−55)K% 30.6% → 36.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.65%÷1.017×1.200——36.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.48%÷1.048×0.690—×1.0507.24%
HBP% /PA4.84%—×0.940—×1.0504.78%
Singles /BIP16.42%÷0.952×0.930×1.019×1.05017.16%
Doubles /BIP10.45%÷1.000×0.830×1.019×1.0509.28%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.130×0.970×1.019×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP7.46%÷0.970×0.700—×1.0505.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .336 → .281; ISO .210 → .161; BABIP .290 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 124 PAwOBA .408 → .359 (−49)K% 15.3% → 20.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.32%÷1.027×1.360——20.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.74%÷1.036×0.690—×1.01511.99%
HBP% /PA2.42%—×0.780—×1.0151.92%
Singles /BIP35.44%÷0.967×0.920×1.031×1.01535.27%
Doubles /BIP6.33%÷1.055×0.830×1.031×1.0155.21%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.035×0.910×1.031×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP1.27%÷1.035×0.800—×1.0150.99%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 107, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .408 → .359; ISO .082 → .068; BABIP .418 → .404. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Orioles Orange · 25 PAwOBA .559 → .405 (−154)K% 16.0% → 23.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.00%÷1.000×1.440——23.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.00%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9857.33%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP38.89%÷1.000×0.820—×0.98531.41%
Doubles /BIP16.67%÷1.000×0.720—×0.98511.82%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9854.27%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .559 → .405; ISO .273 → .195; BABIP .588 → .452. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).