Colton Cowser — OGILVIE

Colton CowserLF Baltimore Orioles

Age 26 L/R 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB HR +8% Svc 2.250S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION231 act + 239 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 7799vR 108

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .304 / .415

PA239

HR10

SB6

K%31

BB%10

BABIP289

ISO193

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

5510.5%

xwOBA

570.317

POWER60

Barrel%

8413.3

Avg EV

6189.9

Bat Spd

7974.4

EYE55

Chase%

9021.9%

SPEED50

Sprint

6328.0

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 979 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

238

741

—

wRC+

103

▶▶R

wOBA

288

319

▶R

ISO

173

195

▶R

BABIP

285

297

▶R

35.3%

31.6%

▶R

BB%

5.0%

9.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.250 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.4	$1M	+$1M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.9	$14M	+$11M
2028	Arb-3	$6M	+1.7	$12M	+$7M
2029	Arb-4	$8M	+1.4	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$18M		$36M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	149	129	43	6	0	2	16	30	3	7	4	333	419	426	845	93	418	20	11	369	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	149	120	45	8	0	2	25	23	3	7	4	375	493	492	985	117	448	15	17	441	196	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	3 teams	—	626	539	125	30	2	14	65	227	18	18	3	232	334	373	707	141	368	36	10	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	3 teams	—	626	510	142	36	2	19	94	174	18	18	3	278	408	469	877	190	383	28	15	391	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA	2 teams	—	476	400	91	16	1	14	61	156	7	10	3	228	340	378	717	150	325	33	13	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA	2 teams	—	476	384	104	20	1	17	77	129	7	10	3	271	402	461	863	190	355	27	16	381	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	561	499	117	23	3	22	52	172	7	9	4	234	315	425	740	190	308	31	9	322	105	+3	+0	+7	-6	+16	2.1
2024	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	561	499	121	24	3	24	52	172	7	9	4	242	323	447	769	204	317	31	9	339	118	+11	+0	+7	-6	+16	2.9
2025	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	360	327	61	13	0	15	27	128	6	14	0	187	261	364	625	177	250	36	8	276	70	-12	+3	+0	+1	+10	0.2
2025	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	360	327	64	14	0	16	27	128	6	14	0	196	269	385	655	190	262	36	8	292	82	-7	+3	+0	+1	+10	0.7
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	MLB	BAL	—	231	201	43	3	0	8	26	71	1	4	2	214	307	348	655	134	282	31	11	293	82	-5	+0	+2	-2	+7	0.1
YTD	26	MLB	BAL	—	231	201	43	3	0	8	26	71	1	4	2	214	307	348	655	134	282	31	11	296	85	-4	+0	+2	-2	+7	0.2
ROS	26	MLB	BAL	100%	239	212	47	9	1	10	23	75	2	6	2	222	304	415	719	193	287	31	10	316	100	+0	+0	+3	-3	+7	0.8
ROS	26	MLB	BAL	100%	239	212	47	9	1	10	23	75	2	6	2	222	304	415	719	193	292	31	10	315	99	-0	+0	+3	-3	+7	0.7
FULL	26	MLB	BAL	—	470	413	90	12	1	18	49	146	3	10	4	218	305	383	688	165	286	31	10	304	91	-5	+0	+5	-5	+13	0.8
TOT	26	MLB	BAL	—	470	413	90	12	1	18	49	146	3	10	4	218	305	383	688	165	286	31	10	305	91	-5	+0	+5	-5	+13	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	BAL	98%	550	485	107	21	1	23	54	174	6	14	4	221	306	410	717	190	287	32	10	317	101	+0	+1	+7	-6	+16	1.8
2028	28	MLB	BAL	98%	539	475	104	20	1	22	53	171	6	13	4	219	305	404	709	185	286	32	10	315	100	-0	+1	+6	-6	+15	1.6
2029	29	MLB	BAL	98%	528	466	101	20	1	21	52	168	5	11	4	217	302	399	701	182	285	32	10	313	98	-1	+1	+5	-6	+15	1.4
2027	27	MLB	BAL	98%	539	475	107	21	1	23	53	170	6	13	4	225	311	419	730	194	292	32	10	315	99	-1	+1	+6	-6	+15	1.7
2028	28	MLB	BAL	98%	528	466	103	20	1	22	52	167	5	12	4	221	306	410	716	189	291	32	10	314	98	-1	+1	+6	-6	+15	1.5
2029	29	MLB	BAL	98%	517	456	101	20	1	22	51	165	5	11	3	221	307	414	721	193	290	32	10	312	97	-2	+1	+5	-6	+15	1.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2821	2496	550	110	7	117	271	899	33	66	17	220	305	411	716	190	290	32	10	314	98	-6	+6	+26	-23	+80	8.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	127	25	2	27	62	207	8	15	4	221	305	412	718	191	291	32	10	314	98	-1	+1	+6	-5	+18	2.0
Career	—			—	4028	3532	796	158	10	143	403	1301	60	102	28	225	315	397	712	172	309	32	10	315	99	-4	+9	+26	-31	+114	11.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	128	25	2	23	65	210	10	16	5	225	315	396	711	172	308	32	10	315	99	-1	+1	+4	-5	+18	1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	124	98	34	5	0	1	22	19	3	4	2	347	480	429	908	82	418	15	18	414	175	+11	+0	—	—	+4	1.4
2021	21	ROK	FCL Orioles Orange	—	25	22	11	3	0	1	3	4	0	3	2	500	560	773	1.333	273	588	16	12	574	298	+6	-0	—	—	+1	0.6
2022	22	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	124	105	23	7	0	5	13	38	6	0	0	219	339	429	767	210	290	31	10	345	122	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2022	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	224	176	60	10	0	10	36	57	9	2	2	341	475	568	1.043	227	446	25	16	453	205	+27	-0	—	—	+6	3.3
2022	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	278	229	59	19	2	4	45	79	3	16	1	258	386	410	797	153	374	28	16	361	134	+11	+3	—	—	+8	2.2
2023	23	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	77	61	7	2	0	0	13	22	2	1	0	115	289	148	437	33	175	29	17	229	33	-6	+0	-1	+2	+2	-0.3
2023	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	399	323	97	18	1	17	64	107	5	9	3	300	423	520	944	220	390	27	16	410	172	+32	+1	—	—	+11	4.5
2024	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	561	499	121	24	3	24	52	172	7	9	4	242	323	447	769	204	317	31	9	339	118	+11	+0	+7	-6	+16	2.9
2025	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	360	327	64	14	0	16	27	128	6	14	0	196	269	385	655	190	262	36	8	292	82	-7	+3	+0	+1	+10	0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	998	887	192	40	3	40	92	322	15	24	4	216	301	404	704	187	287	32	9	314	98	-2	+3	+6	-3	+28	3.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Duvalllast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,723 PA	11	3,723	195	22	227	287	459	-31	+11	11.0	11.8
	/162	664	35	4	227	287	459	-5.5	+2.0	2.0	pk7: 13
#2Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	11	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	4	242	316	418	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#3Scott Hairstonlast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,624 PA	9	2,624	106	36	242	297	444	-18	-16	6.0	6.6
	/162	664	27	9	242	297	444	-4.5	-4.1	1.5	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,284	134	78	220	301	405	-35	+13	5.7	5.9
	/162	664	27	16	220	301	405	-7.1	+2.7	1.2	pk7: 6
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colton Cowser (OGILVIE)	26	40	60	50	55	218/305/383	165	286	18	10	31%	10%	91	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jack Suwinski 2023 · MLB	25	39→42	57→60	45→50	45	211/291/406	195	286	26	8	35%	9%	95	+1.4	209/299/400	191	283	25	13	33%	11%	97	+1.5	199/296/388	189	266	25	15	34%	11%	89	+0.8
✕Brandon Allen 2012 · MLB	26	44→47	55	50	49	226/309/414	187	293	22	10	30%	10%	104	+2.0	220/286/387	167	285	19	7	29%	8%	87	+0.8	212/273/364	152	266	18	4	27%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Derek Fisher 2020 · MLB	26	45→52	54→55	51→55	45	229/305/407	179	316	23	17	34%	9%	101	+1.8	215/290/369	154	307	18	10	34%	9%	85	+0.7	124/197/248	125	185	17	0	43%	8%	11	-0.8
✕Drew Robinson 2018 · MLB	26	40	53→55	49→50	46	212/285/390	178	284	21	12	32%	9%	88	+0.9	221/294/375	154	351	16	13	38%	9%	87	+0.8	196/277/339	144	353	15	13	45%	10%	69	-0.2
✕J.J. Matijevic 2023 · MLB	27	44→42	58→60	52→50	42	230/293/433	203	313	26	12	34%	8%	102	+1.9	226/286/400	174	310	19	11	32%	7%	90	+1.0	213/276/388	175	290	18	8	32%	7%	79	+0.3
✕Taylor Trammell 2023 · MLB	25	45→46	54→55	49→55	46	230/302/412	181	299	21	15	30%	8%	101	+1.8	215/303/387	172	292	20	19	32%	10%	95	+1.4	200/298/370	170	270	21	20	32%	11%	87	+0.5
●Ryan Noda 2023 · AAA	27	39→49	56→55	50	45	209/300/396	187	293	25	13	36%	9%	97	+1.5	202/324/373	171	301	20	8	36%	13%	102	+1.8	184/326/349	164	280	20	6	37%	15%	93	+1.0
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	43→41	54→55	52→50	50	221/307/408	188	288	21	13	30%	10%	102	+1.8	208/299/363	155	294	17	15	32%	10%	87	+0.8	177/275/304	127	268	13	16	36%	10%	59	-0.5
✕Franchy Cordero 2021 · MLB	26	45→54	54→55	53→50	46	234/304/417	183	309	22	14	31%	9%	102	+1.9	231/299/385	154	328	16	12	32%	8%	92	+1.2	228/298/387	159	318	18	12	32%	8%	89	+0.7
✕Jason Martin 2022 · MLB	26	43→49	54→60	46→50	47	227/288/404	177	264	23	11	24%	8%	92	+1.2	230/292/428	198	292	26	9	30%	8%	101	+1.8	222/285/422	200	282	26	8	31%	8%	93	+0.9
✕Casper Wells 2011 · MLB	26	41→46	57→60	45→50	42	220/287/421	201	277	24	10	30%	7%	97	+1.5	229/299/415	186	291	21	8	28%	8%	101	+1.8	223/301/403	180	282	20	6	27%	8%	95	+0.6
✕DJ Stewart 2021 · MLB	27	42→47	55→60	44→50	51	224/310/412	188	265	23	8	25%	10%	104	+2.0	224/324/413	189	278	25	5	28%	11%	111	+2.5	212/319/414	202	253	29	2	28%	11%	105	+1.0
✕Rougned Odor 2020 · MLB	26	40→50	57→60	43→50	46	219/290/419	200	261	26	12	27%	8%	98	+1.6	207/279/395	188	248	25	7	28%	8%	88	+0.9	199/279/352	153	240	18	5	25%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Josh VanMeter 2021 · MLB	26	44→47	53→55	50	48	228/296/403	176	270	20	15	24%	8%	96	+1.5	218/309/381	163	277	18	9	26%	11%	95	+1.4	205/310/363	157	260	18	7	27%	13%	89	+0.4
✕Jabari Blash 2016 · AAA	27	39→41	58→60	48→50	44	214/292/419	206	279	27	9	33%	8%	98	+1.6	208/310/397	189	306	24	7	37%	11%	101	+1.8	194/309/387	193	292	25	6	39%	12%	95	+0.9
✕Weston Wilson 2022 · AAA	27	42→43	59→55	51→55	46	231/296/433	202	277	28	14	28%	8%	104	+2.0	215/280/381	166	290	22	22	32%	8%	83	+0.6	212/291/397	185	265	26	25	30%	9%	90	+0.7
✕Ian Stewart 2011 · MLB	26	43→52	55→60	47→45	51	229/315/417	188	280	23	8	27%	10%	108	+2.3	193/275/335	142	264	17	6	32%	10%	70	-0.3	146/232/263	117	224	13	2	39%	9%	28	-1.2
●Will Benson 2023 · MLB	25	44→52	53→55	53→55	52	220/324/398	178	307	20	16	33%	12%	106	+2.2	224/314/406	182	318	20	23	33%	11%	104	+2.0	216/301/403	188	301	21	24	33%	10%	95	+1.0
●Corey Brown 2013 · MLB	27	45→49	54→60	51→50	40	232/289/412	180	318	22	13	33%	7%	95	+1.4	212/262/381	169	299	21	13	35%	6%	76	+0.0	207/262/398	190	289	26	17	37%	7%	78	+0.2
●Trent Grisham 2023 · MLB	26	42→50	53→60	51→55	52	221/312/396	175	271	20	12	26%	11%	101	+1.8	212/315/390	178	263	21	10	27%	12%	101	+1.8	221/330/419	198	244	27	6	22%	13%	112	+1.6