Patrick Bailey — OGILVIE

Patrick BaileyC Cleveland Guardians

Age 27 S/R 6'0" / 223 lbs MLB Svc 2.791S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION311 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 8585vR 85

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP299

ISO114

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

738.6%

xAVG

300.235

POWER40

Barrel%

325.9

Avg EV

6289.9

Bat Spd

6873.3

EYE50

Chase%

9022.4%

SPEED40

Sprint

1025.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%25%▲24% over 83 PA (45d) · proj 26%

BB%9%▲▲11% over 117 PA (60d) · proj 8%

ISO.140▲.180 over 100 AB (60d) · proj .115xISO .154 vs .136 prior — approach backs the move

HR/BB4.4%▲6.7% over 75 BBE (60d) · proj 2.9%barrel% 6.8% vs 5.6% prior — approach backs the move

BABIP.284·.286 over 70 BIP (60d) · proj .284xBABIP .270 vs .274 prior

SLASH.230/.304/.369▲▲proj .219/.280/.334

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 960 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

218

742

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

232

281

▶▶R

ISO

069

106

▶▶R

BABIP

289

292

—

31.2%

23.9%

▶▶R

BB%

6.4%

8.0%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.791 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+2.0	$15M	+$11M
2028	Arb-3	$6M	+1.8	$12M	+$7M
2029	Arb-4	$9M	+1.6	$10M	+$4M
Totals		$19M		$38M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	22	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	155	135	25	9	0	2	18	43	2	6	0	185	290	296	587	111	256	28	12	274	71	-5	+1	—	—	+3	-0.1
2021	22	A	San Jose Giants	—	207	177	57	16	0	7	28	47	1	1	1	322	417	531	949	209	403	23	14	416	168	+17	-0	—	—	+4	2.1
2021	22	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	56	48	14	3	0	1	7	17	0	0	0	292	382	417	798	125	419	30	12	355	126	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	267	60	14	1	12	49	72	2	1	1	225	349	419	769	195	253	22	15	339	115	+6	-0	—	—	+7	1.3
2023	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	353	326	76	18	1	7	21	100	3	1	0	233	286	359	645	126	314	28	6	287	81	-8	+0	+26	+8	+8	3.4
2023	24	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	60	51	11	1	0	2	7	15	1	1	0	216	322	353	675	137	257	25	12	305	93	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	24	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	60	54	18	2	0	2	6	13	0	2	0	333	400	481	881	148	410	22	10	393	152	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2024	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	448	401	94	16	1	8	39	100	0	4	0	234	302	339	641	105	287	22	9	287	80	-11	+1	+37	+8	+10	4.6
2025	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	452	409	91	18	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	222	281	325	606	103	308	29	7	269	68	-17	+0	+35	+8	+10	3.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1253	1136	261	52	5	21	90	333	6	6	0	230	290	340	630	110	302	27	7	280	76	-36	+1	+98	+25	+27	11.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	155	140	19	6	0	1	13	54	2	6	0	136	219	200	419	64	210	35	8	203	24	-14	+1	—	—	+3	-1.0
2021	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	207	189	46	12	0	5	16	67	1	1	1	243	306	386	692	143	342	32	8	303	91	-2	-0	—	—	+4	0.2
2022	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	284	49	11	1	9	32	98	2	1	1	173	261	313	574	141	209	30	10	253	57	-16	-0	—	—	+7	-1.0
2023	24	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	353	326	79	19	1	8	21	100	3	1	0	242	294	380	675	138	314	28	6	291	83	-7	+0	+26	+8	+8	3.6
2023	24	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	60	53	9	1	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	170	254	245	500	75	227	30	8	248	54	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	60	56	17	2	0	2	4	16	0	2	0	304	350	446	796	143	387	27	7	331	110	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	448	401	96	16	1	9	39	100	0	4	0	239	307	352	658	112	287	22	9	290	82	-9	+1	+37	+8	+10	4.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	452	409	93	19	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	227	285	333	618	105	308	29	7	271	70	-16	+0	+35	+8	+10	3.8
2021	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	418	379	76	21	0	8	34	139	3	7	1	201	272	319	591	119	291	33	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	418	360	96	28	0	10	53	107	3	7	1	267	365	428	793	161	351	26	13	355	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	284	49	11	1	9	32	98	2	1	1	173	261	313	574	141	217	30	10	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	267	60	14	1	12	49	72	2	1	1	225	349	419	769	195	253	22	15	339	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	473	435	104	21	1	11	30	134	4	4	0	239	294	368	662	129	318	28	6	291	83	-10	+1	+26	+8	+10	3.6
2023	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	473	431	105	21	1	11	34	128	4	4	0	244	305	374	678	130	320	27	7	303	83	-10	+1	+26	+8	+10	3.6
2024	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	448	401	96	16	1	9	39	100	0	4	0	239	307	352	658	112	291	22	9	290	82	-9	+1	+37	+8	+10	4.7
2024	25	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	448	401	94	16	1	8	39	100	0	4	0	234	302	339	641	105	287	22	9	287	82	-9	+1	+37	+8	+10	4.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	452	409	93	19	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	227	285	333	618	105	315	29	7	271	70	-16	+0	+35	+8	+10	3.8
2025	26	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	452	409	91	18	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	222	281	325	606	103	308	29	7	269	70	-16	+0	+35	+8	+10	3.8
2021	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	418	378	76	21	0	8	34	139	3	7	1	201	272	320	592	119	285	33	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	288	49	11	1	9	32	98	2	1	1	170	261	309	570	139	209	30	10	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	473	436	104	21	1	11	30	134	4	4	0	239	294	367	661	128	312	28	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	448	406	96	16	1	9	39	100	0	4	0	236	307	347	654	111	287	22	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	452	416	93	19	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	224	285	327	612	103	308	29	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	473	436	104	21	1	11	30	134	4	4	0	239	294	367	661	128	312	28	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	448	406	96	16	1	9	39	100	0	4	0	236	307	347	654	111	287	22	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	452	416	93	19	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	224	285	327	612	103	308	29	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	CLE	—	311	278	58	8	1	8	26	77	1	3	0	209	279	331	610	122	255	25	8	270	69	-12	+1	+2	+6	+7	0.3
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	CLE	—	311	278	58	8	1	8	26	77	1	3	0	209	279	331	610	122	255	25	8	272	69	-12	+1	+2	+6	+7	0.3
YTD	27	MLB RAW	CLE	—	311	278	58	8	1	8	26	77	1	3	0	209	279	331	610	122	255	25	8	272	70	-11	+1	+2	+6	+7	0.4
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		300	22	11	293	85	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		299	22	11	290	85	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	27	MLB A+C	CLE	—	320	286	59	8	1	8	27	79	1	3	0	206	277	325	602	119	252	25	8	272	69	-12	+1	+2	+6	+7	0.4
TOT	27	MLB MLE	CLE	—	320	286	59	8	1	8	27	79	1	3	0	206	277	325	602	119	252	25	8	270	69	-12	+1	+2	+6	+7	0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	454	413	95	18	2	10	36	117	2	3	1	230	295	356	651	126	292	26	8	289	82	-10	+0	+11	+8	+10	2.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	443	402	91	17	2	9	36	115	2	3	1	226	293	346	639	119	291	26	8	287	80	-10	+0	+10	+8	+10	1.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	433	393	88	17	1	9	35	113	2	3	0	224	291	341	632	117	289	26	8	284	78	-11	+1	+9	+8	+9	1.6
2030	31	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	405	368	81	15	1	8	32	107	2	2	0	220	286	332	618	111	287	26	8	279	75	-12	+0	+8	+7	+9	1.2
2031	32	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	375	341	73	13	1	7	30	101	1	2	0	214	280	320	599	106	283	27	8	273	71	-13	+0	+6	+7	+8	0.9
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	454	413	94	18	1	10	36	117	2	3	1	228	293	349	641	121	291	26	8	285	82	-10	+0	+11	+8	+10	2.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	443	402	90	17	1	9	36	115	2	3	1	224	291	338	629	114	291	26	8	283	80	-10	+0	+10	+8	+10	1.8
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	433	393	89	17	1	9	35	113	2	3	0	226	293	344	637	117	289	26	8	280	78	-11	+1	+9	+8	+9	1.6
2030	31	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	405	368	81	15	1	8	32	107	2	2	0	220	286	332	618	111	286	26	8	276	75	-12	+0	+8	+7	+9	1.2
2031	32	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	375	341	73	13	1	7	30	101	1	2	0	214	280	320	599	106	283	27	8	270	71	-13	+0	+6	+7	+8	0.9
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3372	3061	689	132	10	64	260	888	15	19	2	225	289	337	626	112	293	26	8	280	75	-92	+3	+142	+62	+73	19.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	132	25	2	12	50	171	3	4	0	224	288	334	622	110	291	26	8	280	75	-18	+1	+27	+12	+14	3.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4235	3833	847	168	13	86	335	1159	21	30	4	221	287	339	626	118	290	27	8	279	75	-92	+3	+142	+62	+73	19.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	130	26	2	13	51	178	3	5	1	221	286	338	625	117	291	27	8	279	75	-18	+1	+27	+12	+14	3.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1José Molinalast yr '14 AS×6SS career totals — 13 seasons, 2,732 PA	4.1	2,732	37	20	232	281	324	+47	+235	26.6	24.4
/162	664	9	5	+11.4	+57.1	6.5	pk7: 22
#2Nick Ahmedlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,391 PA	5.1	3,391	72	43	234	287	371	+36	+129	19.3	18.8
/162	664	14	8	+7.1	+25.2	3.8	pk7: 18
#3Adam Everettlast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,067 PA	4.6	3,067	40	66	242	294	346	+31	+108	15.7	16.2
/162	664	9	14	+6.6	+23.4	3.4	pk7: 17
#4Roberto Pérezlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,752 PA	2.6	1,752	55	2	207	298	360	+31	+105	15.9	15.5
/162	664	21	1	+11.9	+39.7	6.0	pk7: 15
#5René Riveralast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	42	1	221	273	354	+29	+90	11.7	11.8
/162	664	17	0	+11.9	+37.2	4.9	pk7: 12
#6Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	6.2	4,133	80	25	224	285	338	+74	+250	7.1	6.6
/162	664	13	4	+11.9	+40.2	1.1	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Patrick Bailey (OGILVIE)	27	45	40	40	50	233/296/352	120	300	10	4	26%	8%	85	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Griff Erickson 2015 · AAA	27	42→50	47→45	39→40	47	214/284/349	134	269	14	4	26%	8%	79	-0.2	219/280/334	115	273	11	7	23%	7%	74	-0.5	200/262/284	84	246	7	2	21%	6%	54	-0.8
✕Manuel Bobadilla 2010 · AAA	26	45	44→40	42→45	48	222/296/337	115	282	12	6	25%	8%	81	-0.1	231/301/322	91	287	8	6	21%	8%	79	-0.2	218/301/300	82	286	7	5	24%	8%	73	-0.3
✕Cristhian Adames 2018 · MLB	27	45→55	43→45	43→50	46	223/275/333	110	270	10	7	21%	6%	72	-0.7	227/279/345	118	274	11	7	21%	7%	76	-0.4	229/280/341	112	271	11	5	19%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Wynston Sawyer 2019 · AAA	27	47	42→45	42→45	47	228/306/337	109	290	10	5	24%	8%	84	+0.2	218/282/324	106	309	8	6	30%	6%	73	-0.6	198/257/300	102	301	5	0	34%	4%	54	-0.6
✕Michael Pérez 2021 · MLB	28	42	46→50	40	46	212/278/335	124	272	14	4	27%	8%	74	-0.6	185/257/321	136	235	17	4	29%	8%	63	-1.3	170/248/285	115	218	16	1	30%	8%	50	-0.9
✕Jose Lobatón 2013 · MLB	28	47	43→45	42→30	52	225/306/337	112	290	10	3	25%	10%	84	+0.2	232/302/349	117	297	11	3	24%	9%	86	+0.3	218/294/355	137	261	16	1	23%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Rob Bowen 2007 · MLB	26	48	45	40	49	234/310/358	124	303	12	4	26%	9%	91	+0.6	225/306/357	132	326	12	6	32%	10%	89	+0.5	225/340/363	138	337	13	3	32%	14%	95	+0.3
✕Johnny Monell 2013 · AAA	27	44	46→50	42→45	44	220/281/357	137	288	13	4	28%	7%	80	-0.2	224/286/356	132	289	13	7	26%	8%	81	-0.1	226/287/350	124	285	13	8	24%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Michael Papierski 2022 · AAA	26	43→44	41→40	36→40	51	209/301/308	99	281	9	4	27%	10%	77	-0.3	206/287/304	98	267	9	3	25%	9%	70	-0.8	193/276/282	89	250	9	1	25%	9%	60	-0.8
✕Jeff Mathis 2010 · MLB	27	41→46	45→50	40→45	47	207/277/322	116	262	13	5	26%	8%	71	-0.8	199/248/309	110	261	12	6	27%	6%	56	-1.9	210/260/314	105	285	8	1	28%	6%	58	-0.4
✕Tres Barrera 2022 · MLB	27	44→43	42→45	45→40	48	214/288/313	99	269	9	4	24%	8%	72	-0.7	209/276/316	107	265	12	4	25%	7%	68	-1.0	187/252/275	88	238	11	1	26%	7%	47	-1.1
✕Héctor Sánchez 2016 · MLB	26	43→49	45→50	43→30	42	218/264/336	118	267	13	3	24%	5%	68	-1.0	227/277/395	168	276	22	4	26%	6%	87	+0.4	222/271/421	199	260	29	0	27%	6%	88	+0.2
✕Dan Nelson 2011 · AAA	27	47→49	44→45	45→50	48	231/291/349	118	279	11	10	21%	8%	81	-0.1	240/295/342	102	291	9	7	20%	7%	81	-0.1	255/307/340	85	304	6	2	17%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Francisco Cordoba 2011 · AAA	27	46→53	44→45	40	51	227/303/344	117	278	11	7	22%	9%	85	+0.2	225/275/336	111	287	12	5	25%	6%	72	-0.7	240/289/349	109	296	13	1	23%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Carlos Corporán 2011 · AAA	27	42	44→45	44→40	38	211/260/331	120	270	12	5	26%	4%	65	-1.2	222/276/345	123	286	13	4	26%	5%	75	-0.5	234/290/372	138	286	18	1	24%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Chad Wallach 2019 · MLB	27	39→49	44→50	42→40	42	200/266/312	112	273	12	4	31%	7%	64	-1.3	214/284/340	126	298	14	5	31%	8%	77	-0.3	191/260/331	140	266	19	2	35%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Luke Carlin 2009 · MLB	28	41	40→45	40→45	50	198/282/291	92	276	7	3	29%	10%	65	-1.2	223/304/328	105	296	10	7	26%	10%	82	-0.0	220/306/314	94	287	9	5	24%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Koyie Hill 2006 · MLB	27	45→43	43→45	48→40	49	219/291/332	112	283	10	8	26%	9%	78	-0.3	214/271/332	118	268	11	6	24%	7%	70	-0.9	225/284/349	124	285	11	2	24%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Jason Hagerty 2015 · AAA	27	47→52	44→50	45→40	48	233/298/350	118	286	12	6	23%	8%	84	+0.2	227/291/347	120	295	11	6	26%	7%	81	-0.1	217/284/335	118	286	11	3	26%	6%	71	-0.3
✕Mike Rabelo 2007 · AAA	27	50	42→45	43→40	43	241/296/350	108	293	8	4	20%	5%	83	+0.1	224/278/328	104	284	9	5	23%	5%	72	-0.7	217/263/309	91	278	8	0	24%	4%	60	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps