Patrick Bailey — OGILVIE

Patrick BaileyC Cleveland Guardians

Age 27 S/R 6'0" / 223 lbs MLB Svc 2.791S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION260 act + 199 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 3750vR 82

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .284 / .330

PA199

HR3

K%26

BB%7

BABIP295

ISO104

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

649.5%

xwOBA

340.289

POWER40

Barrel%

305.7

Avg EV

6089.8

Bat Spd

6873.3

EYE50

Chase%

8524.8%

SPEED40

Sprint

1025.4

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 960 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

218

742

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

232

281

▶▶R

ISO

069

106

▶▶R

BABIP

289

292

—

31.2%

23.9%

▶▶R

BB%

6.4%

8.0%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.791 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$0.0M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.9	$14M	+$11M
2028	Arb-3	$6M	+1.7	$12M	+$7M
2029	Arb-4	$7M	+1.5	$10M	+$4M
Totals		$17M		$36M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	3 teams	—	418	381	76	20	0	8	32	138	3	7	1	199	267	315	582	115	287	33	8	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	3 teams	—	418	360	96	28	0	10	53	107	3	7	1	267	365	428	793	161	351	26	13	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	284	50	12	1	8	32	95	2	1	1	176	264	310	574	134	223	29	10	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	267	60	14	1	12	49	72	2	1	1	225	349	419	769	195	253	22	15	339	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	3 teams	—	473	435	106	22	1	11	30	133	4	4	0	244	299	375	673	131	324	28	6	296	85	-8	+1	+26	+8	+13	4.1
2023	24	MLB	3 teams	—	473	431	105	21	1	11	34	128	4	4	0	244	305	374	678	130	320	27	7	303	90	-5	+1	+26	+8	+13	4.4
2024	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	448	401	98	17	1	9	39	100	0	4	0	244	311	359	670	115	298	22	9	294	83	-9	+1	+37	+8	+13	5.1
2024	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	448	401	94	16	1	8	39	100	0	4	0	234	302	339	641	105	287	22	9	287	78	-11	+1	+37	+8	+13	4.8
2025	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	452	409	95	19	3	7	30	133	3	1	0	232	290	345	634	112	320	29	7	275	68	-16	+0	+35	+8	+13	4.1
2025	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	452	409	91	18	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	222	281	325	606	103	308	29	7	269	64	-18	+0	+35	+8	+13	3.9
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	MLB	CLE	—	260	239	42	5	1	4	18	62	0	3	0	176	233	255	489	79	218	24	7	220	27	-22	+1	+2	+5	+7	-0.7
YTD	27	MLB	CLE	—	260	239	42	5	1	4	18	62	0	3	0	176	233	255	489	79	218	24	7	223	29	-21	+1	+2	+5	+7	-0.6
ROS	27	MLB	CLE	100%	199	182	41	8	1	3	14	51	1	2	0	225	284	330	614	104	293	26	7	279	72	-6	+0	+5	+4	+6	0.9
ROS	27	MLB	CLE	100%	199	182	41	8	1	3	14	51	1	2	0	225	284	330	614	104	293	26	7	277	70	-7	+0	+5	+4	+6	0.8
FULL	27	MLB	CLE	—	459	421	83	13	2	7	32	113	1	5	0	197	256	287	543	90	251	25	7	245	46	-28	+1	+7	+8	+13	0.1
TOT	27	MLB	CLE	—	459	421	83	13	2	7	32	113	1	5	0	197	256	287	543	90	251	25	7	246	46	-28	+1	+7	+8	+13	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	CLE	100%	454	417	98	19	2	8	33	116	1	4	1	235	293	348	640	113	301	26	7	284	75	-13	+0	+11	+8	+13	2.0
2028	29	MLB	CLE	100%	443	407	94	18	2	7	32	114	1	3	1	231	289	337	625	106	300	26	7	282	74	-13	+0	+10	+8	+13	1.8
2029	30	MLB	CLE	100%	433	397	91	17	2	7	32	112	1	3	0	229	288	335	623	106	299	26	7	279	72	-14	+1	+9	+8	+12	1.6
2030	31	MLB	CLE	100%	405	371	83	16	1	6	30	106	1	2	0	224	284	321	604	97	296	26	7	274	68	-15	+0	+8	+7	+11	1.2
2031	32	MLB	CLE	100%	375	344	75	14	1	5	27	100	1	2	0	218	277	308	585	90	292	27	7	268	63	-15	+0	+6	+7	+11	0.9
2027	28	MLB	CLE	100%	454	417	98	19	2	8	33	116	1	4	1	235	293	348	640	113	302	26	7	282	74	-13	+0	+11	+8	+13	1.9
2028	29	MLB	CLE	100%	443	407	94	18	2	7	32	114	1	3	1	231	289	337	625	106	301	26	7	280	72	-14	+0	+10	+8	+13	1.7
2029	30	MLB	CLE	100%	433	397	91	17	2	7	32	112	1	3	0	229	288	335	623	106	299	26	7	277	70	-15	+1	+9	+8	+12	1.5
2030	31	MLB	CLE	100%	405	371	83	16	1	6	30	106	1	2	0	224	284	321	604	97	297	26	7	273	67	-15	+0	+8	+7	+11	1.2
2031	32	MLB	CLE	100%	375	344	75	14	1	5	27	100	1	2	0	218	277	308	585	90	293	27	7	267	62	-16	+0	+6	+7	+11	0.8
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3562	3254	743	144	14	57	258	932	12	22	2	228	287	334	621	105	300	26	7	278	71	-118	+4	+147	+66	+101	20.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	135	26	3	10	47	170	2	4	0	227	286	332	618	104	298	26	7	278	71	-22	+1	+27	+12	+18	3.7
Career	—			—	4425	4028	907	182	15	79	331	1198	18	33	4	225	287	337	624	111	297	27	7	277	70	-148	+5	+147	+79	+125	21.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	134	27	2	12	49	176	3	5	1	226	289	340	629	113	298	27	8	277	70	-22	+1	+22	+12	+18	3.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	155	135	25	9	0	2	18	43	2	6	0	185	290	296	587	111	256	28	12	274	68	-6	+1	—	—	+4	-0.0
2021	22	A	San Jose Giants	—	207	177	57	16	0	7	28	47	1	1	1	322	417	531	949	209	403	23	14	416	177	+18	-0	—	—	+6	2.4
2021	22	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	56	48	14	3	0	1	7	17	0	0	0	292	382	417	798	125	419	30	12	355	130	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2022	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	267	60	14	1	12	49	72	2	1	1	225	349	419	769	195	253	22	15	339	117	+6	-0	—	—	+9	1.6
2023	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	353	326	76	18	1	7	21	100	3	1	0	233	286	359	645	126	314	28	6	287	78	-9	+0	+26	+8	+10	3.6
2023	24	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	60	51	11	1	0	2	7	15	1	1	0	216	322	353	675	137	257	25	12	305	92	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2023	24	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	60	54	18	2	0	2	6	13	0	2	0	333	400	481	881	148	410	22	10	393	159	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2024	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	448	401	94	16	1	8	39	100	0	4	0	234	302	339	641	105	287	22	9	287	78	-11	+1	+37	+8	+13	4.8
2025	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	452	409	91	18	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	222	281	325	606	103	308	29	7	269	64	-18	+0	+35	+8	+13	3.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1253	1136	261	52	5	21	90	333	6	6	0	230	290	340	630	110	302	27	7	280	73	-39	+1	+98	+25	+36	12.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tyler Flowerslast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,741 PA	10	2,741	86	2	238	319	394	+49	+142	27.5	25.8
	/162	664	21	0	238	319	394	+11.9	+34.4	6.7	pk7: 24
#2José Molinalast yr '14 AS×6SS career totals — 13 seasons, 2,732 PA	13	2,732	37	20	232	281	324	+47	+235	26.6	24.4
	/162	664	9	5	232	281	324	+11.4	+57.1	6.5	pk7: 22
#3Nick Ahmedlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,391 PA	11	3,391	72	43	234	287	371	+36	+129	19.3	18.8
	/162	664	14	8	234	287	371	+7.1	+25.2	3.8	pk7: 18
#4Adam Everettlast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,067 PA	10	3,067	40	66	242	294	346	+31	+108	15.8	16.2
	/162	664	9	14	242	294	346	+6.6	+23.4	3.4	pk7: 17
#5Roberto Pérezlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,752 PA	9	1,752	55	2	207	298	360	+31	+105	15.9	15.5
	/162	664	21	1	207	298	360	+11.9	+39.7	6.0	pk7: 15
#6Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	9	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
	/162	664	4	15	234	295	315	+6.9	+19.7	2.5	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	4,082	66	26	225	281	329	+73	+275	4.5	4.7
	/162	664	11	4	225	281	329	+11.9	+44.8	0.7	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Patrick Bailey (OGILVIE)	27	45	40	40	50	197/256/287	90	251	7	5	25%	7%	46	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Craig Tatum 2010 · MLB	27	42→46	42→45	42→30	41	211/257/315	104	270	10	3	26%	5%	55	-1.4	210/268/285	75	269	6	6	22%	7%	52	-1.6	205/270/242	37	262	0	4	20%	8%	40	-0.6
✕Carlos Corporán 2012 · MLB	28	41	42→45	43→40	39	205/260/312	108	270	10	4	28%	5%	56	-1.3	229/283/360	131	288	15	4	25%	5%	79	+0.3	232/287/363	131	284	17	1	24%	5%	80	+0.1
✕Cristhian Adames 2018 · MLB	27	44→54	41→45	43→50	45	213/265/314	101	262	9	7	22%	6%	58	-1.2	224/276/342	118	270	11	7	21%	7%	70	-0.3	228/280/344	116	269	11	5	19%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Luke Carlin 2009 · MLB	28	41	40→45	40→45	49	198/281/290	92	275	7	3	29%	10%	60	-1.0	221/301/327	106	293	10	7	26%	10%	78	+0.2	217/303/312	95	283	9	5	25%	10%	72	-0.1
✕Jeff Mathis 2010 · MLB	27	41→46	45→50	40→45	47	207/277/322	116	262	13	5	26%	8%	67	-0.5	199/248/310	111	260	12	6	28%	6%	50	-1.7	211/261/316	106	287	8	1	28%	6%	54	-0.4
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2009 · MLB	27	43	43→50	46→50	43	215/263/320	104	269	10	4	24%	6%	59	-1.1	217/261/336	119	278	12	3	25%	5%	63	-0.9	227/276/350	123	289	13	1	25%	5%	69	-0.2
✕Cam Gallagher 2020 · MLB	27	47	43→45	41→30	47	232/286/338	106	267	10	4	18%	6%	73	-0.1	234/293/353	119	283	11	5	20%	7%	81	+0.4	185/232/268	83	243	6	0	25%	6%	31	-0.8
✕Tres Barrera 2022 · MLB	27	44→42	42→45	45→40	47	214/286/316	102	270	10	4	24%	8%	69	-0.4	212/277/329	117	265	13	4	24%	7%	69	-0.4	191/257/290	98	240	13	1	25%	7%	46	-0.9
✕Justin Sellers 2012 · MLB	26	43→53	43→45	43→50	49	212/282/323	111	258	10	7	22%	8%	69	-0.4	207/264/314	107	254	9	6	22%	6%	59	-1.1	200/246/278	79	239	6	4	19%	4%	40	-1.7
✕Sandy León 2016 · MLB	27	40→50	39→45	40→30	46	197/259/276	79	249	7	3	24%	7%	46	-2.0	230/289/346	116	293	12	3	24%	7%	77	+0.1	223/284/342	119	282	12	1	24%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Griff Erickson 2015 · AAA	27	41→50	47→45	39→40	46	211/278/346	135	268	15	4	27%	8%	73	-0.1	218/278/338	120	276	12	7	25%	7%	71	-0.3	202/264/297	95	251	9	2	23%	6%	52	-0.6
✕Luke Maile 2017 · MLB	26	42→49	40→45	41→40	42	207/253/299	92	253	8	3	22%	5%	49	-1.8	200/254/296	96	260	9	6	25%	6%	50	-1.8	231/315/353	122	314	11	4	28%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Chad Wallach 2019 · MLB	27	39→49	46→50	42→40	42	201/265/322	121	271	14	4	30%	7%	62	-0.9	216/283/353	137	296	16	5	31%	7%	77	+0.1	186/257/330	144	259	20	2	35%	8%	58	-0.5
✕Fernando Flores 2019 · AAA	27	51	41→40	38→40	41	245/273/343	99	292	8	4	19%	4%	69	-0.4	225/264/322	97	272	9	7	20%	5%	59	-1.1	213/246/266	53	254	5	0	18%	4%	37	-0.7
✕Koyie Hill 2008 · MLB	29	44→43	42→45	44→40	46	215/268/324	109	261	9	5	21%	6%	63	-0.9	225/281/349	124	290	12	4	25%	7%	74	-0.1	221/279/338	117	291	10	2	26%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Pete Kozma 2015 · MLB	27	45→47	40→45	44→50	48	216/274/312	96	258	7	9	19%	7%	62	-0.9	197/253/266	69	248	5	11	22%	6%	41	-2.3	190/238/287	96	231	7	6	21%	5%	38	-1.7
✕Nate Mondou 2022 · AAA	27	42→52	44→45	39→50	47	208/275/321	113	250	11	5	22%	7%	66	-0.6	219/290/329	110	280	9	6	24%	8%	74	-0.1	224/297/318	94	291	7	9	24%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Yariel Gonzalez 2021 · AAA	27	45→52	45	42→45	44	224/265/340	116	257	13	6	19%	5%	65	-0.7	217/267/346	129	274	17	6	27%	6%	68	-0.5	209/259/334	125	261	18	5	27%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Jose Herrera 2023 · MLB	26	45	42→40	48→40	48	220/289/315	95	285	10	5	25%	9%	69	-0.4	209/280/292	83	270	7	4	23%	9%	59	-1.1	190/272/263	73	243	6	1	23%	10%	47	-0.7
✕Blake Swihart 2019 · MLB	27	43→50	41→45	51→45	45	209/269/304	95	280	8	11	28%	7%	57	-1.2	191/255/314	123	263	15	7	32%	8%	55	-1.4	149/220/265	116	198	16	2	34%	8%	26	-1.3