Patrick Bailey

C Cleveland Guardians
Age 28 S/R 6'0" / 223 lbs MLB Svc 3.791 · Ctrl thru 2029
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202425MLBSF448.234/.302/.33984844.8
202526MLBSF452.222/.281/.32561713.8
202627MLBCLE345.206/.274/.335103700.4
2027PROJ28MLBCLE303.218/.283/.33772751.1
2028PROJ29MLBCLE297.215/.280/.33061720.8
2029PROJ30MLBCLE292.212/.276/.32260690.6
Last 3 seasons WAR 9.0  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2029Service3.791First FA2030
2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$3M2029Arb-3$3M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Bat Spd68
Avg EV62
xwOBA40
Barrel%34
Speed10
Form.211/.268/.347 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .217/.281/.337
CompsMichael Papierski (age 28) · Tres Barrera (age 28) · Griff Erickson (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 7575vR 75
AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .283 / .337
PA303
HR7
K%26
BB%8
BABIP278
ISO120
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -9.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: -0.9 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: +7.8 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+8FLDPOS: +5.4 runs (Positional adjustment)+5POSREP: +6.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+7REPTotal WAR: +1.30+1.3WAR
0.00.91.81.30.80.627282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT45
xAVG
300.235
POWER40
Barrel%
346.1
Avg EV
6290.0
Bat Spd
6873.3
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED40
Sprint
1025.4
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%31%▼▼36% over 59 PA (60d) · proj 26%
BB%7%▼5% over 59 PA (60d) · proj 8%
ISO.137▲.185 over 54 AB (60d) · proj .120
HR/BB4.7%▲9.1% over 33 BBE (60d) · proj 3.4%
BABIP.280·.333 over 30 BIP (60d) · proj .278
SLASH.211/.268/.347·proj .217/.281/.337
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 960 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
218
742
—
wRC+
43
77
▶▶R
wOBA
232
281
▶▶R
ISO
069
106
▶▶R
BABIP
289
292
—
K%
31.2%
23.9%
▶▶R
BB%
6.4%
8.0%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2023
Service   3.791 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2030
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$2M+1.3$10M+$8M
2028Arb-2$3M+0.8$3M+$0.4M
2029Arb-3$3M+0.6$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $5M $15M +$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202122 A+Eugene Emeralds — 155135 25902 18432 60 185290296587 111256 2812 274 25 — — — — — —
202122 ASan Jose Giants — 207177 571607 28471 11 322417531949 209403 2314 416 91 — — — — — —
202122 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 5648 14301 7170 00 292382417798 125419 3012 355 126 — — — — — —
202223 A+Eugene Emeralds — 325267 6014112 49722 11 225349419769 195253 2215 339 68 — — — — — —
202324 MLBSan Francisco Giants — 353326 761817 211003 10 233286359645 126314 286 287 84 -7 +0 +26 +8 +8 3.6
202324 AAASacramento River Cats — 6051 11102 7151 10 216322353675 137257 2512 305 63 — — — — — —
202324 AARichmond Flying Squirrels — 6054 18202 6130 20 333400481881 148410 2210 393 117 — — — — — —
202425 MLBSan Francisco Giants — 448401 941618 391000 40 234302339641 105287 229 287 84 -9 +1 +37 +8 +10 4.8
202526 MLBSan Francisco Giants — 452409 911836 301333 10 222281325606 103308 297 269 71 -16 +0 +35 +8 +10 3.8
202627 MLBCleveland Guardians — 345310 648110 28921 30 206274335610 129256 278 272 70 -12 +1 +2 +6 +7 0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 15981446 32560631 1184257 90 225286339625 114292 277 279 75 -48 +2 +100 +31 +35 12.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202122 A+ MLEEugene Emeralds — 155140 20602 13542 60 143226229454 86213 358 205 25 — — — — — —
202122 A MLESan Jose Giants — 207189 461205 16671 11 243306386692 143342 328 303 91 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLEEugene Emeralds — 325281 521219 35952 11 185280331611 146221 2911 269 68 — — — — — —
202324 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 353326 781818 211003 10 239291374666 135314 286 292 84 -7 +0 +26 +8 +8 3.6
202324 AAA MLESacramento River Cats — 6053 10101 5171 10 189271264535 75246 288 262 63 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLERichmond Flying Squirrels — 6056 18202 4160 20 321367464831 143402 277 341 117 — — — — — —
202425 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 448401 961619 391000 40 239307352658 112287 229 292 84 -9 +1 +37 +8 +10 4.8
202526 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 452409 921836 301333 10 225283328610 103308 297 273 71 -16 +0 +35 +8 +10 3.8
202627 MLB MLECleveland Guardians — 345310 648110 28921 30 206274335610 129256 278 272 70 -12 +1 +2 +6 +7 0.4
202122 A MLE3 teams — 418379 762108 341393 71 201272319591 119291 338 261 63 — — — — — —
202122 A RAW3 teams — 418360 9628010 531073 71 267365428793 161351 2613 355 63 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLEEugene Emeralds — 325281 521219 35952 11 185280331611 146234 2911 269 68 — — — — — —
202223 A+ RAWEugene Emeralds — 325267 6014112 49722 11 225349419769 195253 2215 339 68 — — — — — —
202324 MLB MLE3 teams — 473435 10621111 301334 40 244299372671 129324 286 295 86 -8 +1 +26 +8 +10 3.8
202324 MLB RAW3 teams — 473431 10521111 341284 40 244305374678 130320 277 303 86 -8 +1 +26 +8 +10 3.8
202425 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 448401 961619 391000 40 239307352658 112291 229 292 84 -9 +1 +37 +8 +10 4.8
202425 MLB RAWSan Francisco Giants — 448401 941618 391000 40 234302339641 105287 229 287 84 -9 +1 +37 +8 +10 4.8
202526 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 452409 921836 301333 10 225283328610 103312 297 273 71 -16 +0 +35 +8 +10 3.8
202526 MLB RAWSan Francisco Giants — 452409 911836 301333 10 222281325606 103308 297 269 71 -16 +0 +35 +8 +10 3.8
202627 MLB MLECleveland Guardians — 345310 648110 28921 30 206274335610 129256 278 272 70 -12 +1 +2 +6 +7 0.4
202627 MLB RAWCleveland Guardians — 345310 648110 28921 30 206274335610 129256 278 272 70 -12 +1 +2 +6 +7 0.4
202122 A MLE3 teams — 418378 762108 341393 71 201272320592 119287 338 261 63 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLEEugene Emeralds — 325285 521219 35952 11 182280326606 144221 2911 269 68 — — — — — —
202324 MLB MLE3 teams — 473436 10621111 301334 40 243299372670 128316 286 295 86 — — — — — —
202425 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 448406 961619 391000 40 236307347654 111287 229 292 84 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 452416 921836 301333 10 221283322605 101308 297 273 71 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLECleveland Guardians — 345313 648110 28921 30 204274332607 128256 278 272 70 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202425 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 448406 961619 391000 40 236307347654 111287 229 292 84 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 452416 921836 301333 10 221283322605 101308 297 273 71 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLECleveland Guardians — 345313 648110 28921 30 204274332607 128256 278 272 70 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202728 MLB MLECLE 100% 406369 811429 321062 31 218283338621 120278 268 279 75 -12 +0 +10 +7 +9 1.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202728 MLB CTXCLE 100% 303275 601017 24791 21 218283337620 119278 268 279 75 -9 +0 +8 +5 +7 1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202829 MLB MLECLE 100% 297271 581016 23791 11 215280331611 116276 278 275 72 -10 -0 +6 +5 +6 0.8
202930 MLB MLECLE 100% 292267 56916 22781 01 212276323599 111274 278 270 69 -11 -0 +5 +5 +6 0.6
202829 MLB CTXCLE 100% 297271 581016 23791 11 215280330611 115277 278 275 72 -10 -0 +6 +5 +6 0.8
202930 MLB CTXCLE 100% 292267 571016 22781 01 212276322599 110274 278 270 69 -11 -0 +5 +5 +6 0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 21871984 44080843 1635829 102 222284335619 113288 277 277 74 -69 +1 +112 +41 +47 13.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650590 13124213 481733 31 222284336620 114288 277 277 74 -20 +0 +33 +12 +14 4.0
Career— MLE — 33533028 6601251072 26592816 235 218284337622 119286 288 277 74 -78 +1 +119 +47 +54 14.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650587 12824214 511803 41 218284337621 119286 288 277 74 -20 +0 +31 +12 +14 3.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 60 PAwOBA .302 → .262 (−41)K% 25.0% → 27.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.00%÷1.087×1.200——27.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.67%÷0.981×0.690—×1.0488.60%
HBP% /PA1.67%—×0.940—×1.0481.64%
Singles /BIP22.22%÷0.992×0.930—×1.04821.83%
Doubles /BIP2.78%÷0.992×0.830—×1.0482.44%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.956×0.970—×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷1.057×0.700—×1.0483.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .302 → .262; ISO .137 → .102; BABIP .257 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 60 PAwOBA .383 → .341 (−42)K% 21.7% → 26.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.67%÷0.995×1.220——26.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.00%÷0.985×0.700—×1.0127.19%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×1.0120.00%
Singles /BIP34.15%÷0.978×0.970—×1.01234.28%
Doubles /BIP4.88%÷1.003×0.860—×1.0124.23%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.950—×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP4.88%÷0.906×0.780—×1.0124.25%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .383 → .341; ISO .148 → .125; BABIP .410 → .402. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Eugene Emeralds · 325 PAwOBA .338 → .269 (−69)K% 22.2% → 29.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.15%÷1.029×1.350——29.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.08%÷0.978×0.710—×0.99810.93%
HBP% /PA0.62%—×0.810—×0.9980.50%
Singles /BIP16.92%÷0.989×0.910×0.983×0.99815.28%
Doubles /BIP7.18%÷0.953×0.830×0.983×0.9986.14%
Triples /BIP0.51%÷0.930×0.820×0.983×0.9980.44%
Home runs /BIP6.15%÷1.120×0.830—×0.9984.55%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 86, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .338 → .269; ISO .195 → .150; BABIP .253 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ASan Jose Giants · 207 PAwOBA .407 → .303 (−104)K% 22.7% → 32.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.71%÷0.959×1.360——32.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.53%÷1.203×0.690——7.76%
HBP% /PA0.48%—×0.780——0.38%
Singles /BIP26.15%÷0.977×0.920×0.950—23.41%
Doubles /BIP12.31%÷1.014×0.830×0.950—9.58%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.098×0.910×0.950—0.00%
Home runs /BIP5.38%÷1.008×0.800——4.28%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 103, 3B 120, K 92, BB 141 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .407 → .303; ISO .209 → .156; BABIP .403 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Eugene Emeralds · 155 PAwOBA .264 → .205 (−59)K% 27.7% → 34.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.74%÷1.083×1.350——34.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.97%÷0.924×0.710—×1.0128.53%
HBP% /PA1.29%—×0.810—×1.0121.06%
Singles /BIP15.22%÷1.016×0.910×0.995×1.01213.73%
Doubles /BIP9.78%÷1.135×0.830×0.995×1.0127.20%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.029×0.820×0.995×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP2.17%÷1.049×0.830—×1.0121.74%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 103, 2B 127, 3B 106, K 117, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .264 → .205; ISO .111 → .080; BABIP .256 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .