Michael Papierski

Michael PapierskiC Tacoma Rainiers

Age 30 S/R 6'3" / 224 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .294 / .313

PA250

HR4

K%24

BB%10

ISO106

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 43 / POW 31

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022

CONTACT43

Whiff%

857.3%

xwOBA

100.219

POWER31

Avg EV

1077.4

EYE47

Chase%

3933.8%

SPEED27

Sprint

1024.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.2M
Totals		$0.6M		$0.8M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	369	314	49	9	0	4	47	99	8	4	1	156	282	223	505	67	213	27	13	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	369	297	55	12	0	5	64	69	8	4	1	185	344	276	620	91	224	19	17	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	446	397	67	7	1	6	38	149	8	2	7	169	255	237	492	68	250	33	9	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	446	374	87	11	1	7	61	101	8	2	7	233	352	324	676	91	299	23	14	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	Sugar Land Skeeters	—	410	351	75	18	1	7	46	102	9	1	5	214	320	330	651	117	278	25	11	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	Sugar Land Skeeters	—	410	333	82	18	2	7	64	85	9	1	5	246	382	375	757	129	307	21	16	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	325	291	50	7	0	4	26	77	3	0	0	172	247	237	484	65	216	24	8	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	325	281	57	8	0	7	36	65	3	0	0	203	300	306	606	103	236	20	11	277	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	378	334	78	11	1	11	35	98	4	2	1	234	314	371	685	138	293	26	9	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	378	307	77	16	2	10	62	79	4	2	1	251	383	414	797	163	302	21	16	357	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	336	292	56	14	0	4	34	86	4	1	0	192	285	281	566	89	251	26	10	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	336	277	67	18	0	6	49	67	4	1	0	242	364	372	735	130	292	20	15	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	SEA	—	250	221	47	10	1	4	24	61	3	3	1	213	298	321	620	109	268	24	10	280	72	-8	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	SEA	27%	354	313	66	14	1	6	34	86	4	3	1	211	296	319	616	109	269	24	10	280	73	-11	+0	-4	+6	+10	0.2
2028	32	MLB	SEA	37%	325	288	60	12	1	5	31	80	3	2	1	208	292	309	601	101	267	25	10	278	71	-11	+0	-5	+6	+9	-0.0
2029	33	MLB	SEA	43%	288	256	53	10	1	5	27	72	3	2	0	207	290	312	603	105	264	25	9	273	67	-11	+0	-5	+5	+8	-0.2
2027	31	MLB	SEA	27%	97	87	18	4	0	2	9	24	1	1	0	207	289	322	610	115	266	25	9	270	65	-4	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.0
2028	32	MLB	SEA	37%	122	108	23	5	0	2	12	30	1	1	0	213	298	315	612	102	265	25	10	268	63	-5	+0	-2	+2	+3	-0.1
2029	33	MLB	SEA	43%	125	111	22	4	0	2	12	31	1	1	0	198	282	288	571	90	262	25	10	263	60	-6	+0	-2	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	447	397	76	14	0	7	43	111	3	3	0	191	275	280	555	88	246	25	10	251	50	-25	+1	-8	+12	+13	-0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	110	20	0	10	63	161	4	4	0	191	275	277	552	87	244	25	10	251	50	-37	+1	-11	+17	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	3481	3057	601	112	7	56	342	910	49	20	17	197	288	293	580	96	258	26	10	264	60	-156	-3	-18	+62	+99	-1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	112	21	1	10	64	170	9	4	3	196	287	289	576	93	258	26	10	264	60	-29	-0	-3	+12	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	369	297	55	12	0	5	64	69	8	4	1	185	344	276	620	91	224	19	17	300	88	-5	+0	—	—	+10	0.6
2019	23	A+	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	446	374	87	11	1	7	61	101	8	2	7	233	352	324	676	91	299	23	14	315	99	-1	-2	—	—	+13	1.0
2021	25	AAA	Sugar Land Skeeters	—	410	333	82	18	2	7	64	85	9	1	5	246	382	375	757	129	307	21	16	346	123	+11	-2	—	—	+12	2.1
2022	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	103	91	13	1	0	1	10	26	0	0	0	143	228	187	415	44	188	25	10	197	9	-11	+0	-3	+6	+3	-0.5
2022	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	222	190	44	7	0	6	26	39	3	0	0	232	333	363	696	132	257	18	12	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+6	0.6
2023	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	305	256	68	14	1	8	42	65	3	0	0	266	375	422	797	156	321	21	14	356	130	+10	+0	—	—	+9	1.9
2023	27	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	73	51	9	2	1	2	20	14	1	2	1	176	417	373	789	196	200	19	27	365	138	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2024	28	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	336	277	67	18	0	6	49	67	4	1	0	242	364	372	735	130	292	20	15	332	112	+5	+0	—	—	+10	1.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	103	91	13	1	0	1	10	26	0	0	0	143	228	187	415	44	188	25	10	197	9	-11	+0	-3	+6	+3	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	471	7	3	195	276	287	+8	-5	-0.2	-0.2
	/162	664	10	4	195	276	287	+11.9	-7.5	-0.3	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Papierski (OGILVIE)	30	43	31	27	47	209/294/313	105	268	4	3	24%	10%	72	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bryan Holaday 2018 · MLB	30	45	47→45	36→40	42	228/272/367	139	262	15	3	20%	4%	76	+0.1	229/289/348	119	266	12	4	18%	6%	78	+0.2	223/289/353	130	256	14	2	19%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Tony Wolters 2022 · MLB	30	46→49	40	39→45	47	220/296/313	93	286	8	4	25%	8%	72	-0.2	211/287/296	85	296	7	4	29%	8%	64	-0.8	195/276/248	53	283	3	0	29%	8%	45	-0.8
✕Ed Easley 2016 · AAA	30	48→42	41→45	37→40	47	231/289/331	100	276	9	4	20%	7%	73	-0.1	212/268/305	93	257	9	7	20%	6%	57	-1.2	165/218/197	32	195	5	0	18%	6%	8	-1.0
✕Tony Cruz 2017 · MLB	30	46→38	42→45	42→40	45	226/279/328	102	284	9	5	23%	7%	68	-0.5	218/270/343	125	291	14	5	29%	6%	69	-0.4	214/267/333	119	287	14	0	30%	5%	63	-0.2
✕Rob Johnson 2011 · MLB	29	46→52	41→45	41→50	52	222/297/331	109	271	8	5	20%	9%	77	+0.1	208/273/320	112	259	11	7	23%	7%	64	-0.8	196/251/301	105	240	11	5	23%	6%	46	-0.8
✕Carlos Leon 2009 · AAA	29	50→59	37→30	39→45	49	234/303/305	71	276	4	6	16%	7%	72	-0.2	218/286/305	87	262	7	9	19%	7%	66	-0.6	201/277/262	61	239	4	7	17%	7%	47	-0.8
✕Manuel Bobadilla 2014 · AAA	30	46	43→45	41→45	45	225/301/331	106	297	10	7	26%	7%	79	+0.3	214/276/323	109	276	12	6	26%	6%	66	-0.6	188/248/273	85	235	10	0	24%	5%	41	-0.6
✕Enrique Wilson 2002 · MLB	29	49	42→45	35→40	48	239/281/345	106	262	10	5	14%	6%	73	-0.1	219/267/337	118	237	12	7	13%	6%	66	-0.6	204/252/319	115	210	12	6	11%	6%	53	-0.5
✕Luke Carlin 2010 · MLB	29	47	42→45	41→45	51	225/307/332	107	302	10	6	27%	10%	82	+0.5	218/295/317	99	279	9	6	24%	9%	72	-0.2	203/284/282	79	253	7	3	21%	10%	58	-0.5
✕JD Closser 2010 · AAA	30	44	41→50	42→45	48	214/277/310	96	269	8	6	23%	8%	63	-0.9	212/267/300	88	266	9	7	23%	7%	56	-1.3	196/253/268	72	242	8	5	22%	7%	39	-1.1
✕Ozzie Chavez 2013 · AAA	30	47→52	40	41→45	45	226/278/310	85	280	8	9	22%	6%	63	-0.9	206/246/280	74	296	6	9	31%	5%	40	-2.4	174/201/191	17	261	0	3	32%	3%	-5	-1.7
✕Michel Hernandez 2009 · MLB	30	50	40	40	47	241/283/329	88	269	7	4	14%	5%	69	-0.4	234/285/315	81	268	7	6	15%	6%	66	-0.6	237/299/302	64	271	4	4	13%	7%	69	-0.1
✕Juan Centeno 2019 · MLB	29	49	40→45	41→40	44	238/280/324	86	282	7	3	18%	5%	67	-0.5	231/284/324	93	276	8	6	18%	6%	69	-0.4	238/286/352	114	281	11	2	19%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Juan Melo 2007 · AAA	30	49→46	43→45	41→40	42	241/277/346	105	284	11	5	20%	4%	72	-0.2	230/274/339	109	273	12	7	20%	5%	69	-0.4	223/270/317	94	255	11	2	17%	5%	60	-0.4
✕Ivan Bellazetin 2017 · AAA	30	50→52	41→40	39→55	43	241/280/335	93	277	8	8	17%	4%	70	-0.3	240/283/359	119	279	12	9	18%	5%	78	+0.2	246/286/356	110	283	10	5	17%	4%	73	-0.0
✕Alejandro Gonzalez 2015 · AAA	29	46→49	43→45	41→50	45	227/302/335	108	290	12	6	25%	7%	81	+0.4	223/279/314	91	309	8	6	29%	5%	65	-0.7	227/286/327	99	313	7	12	28%	5%	69	-0.3
✕Gregorio Petit 2015 · MLB	30	50→55	42→45	38→50	41	242/278/347	105	294	9	4	21%	4%	72	-0.2	232/266/336	104	288	8	5	22%	4%	64	-0.8	232/269/311	79	292	5	7	21%	4%	56	-0.7
✕Curt Casali 2019 · MLB	30	47	45→50	38→30	47	234/298/355	121	285	14	3	23%	7%	83	+0.6	239/320/398	159	300	19	5	26%	10%	105	+2.1	220/318/362	142	290	17	0	28%	11%	89	+0.4
✕Brooks Badeaux 2007 · AAA	30	42→52	41→40	39→30	42	210/254/306	96	249	10	5	20%	4%	52	-1.6	234/279/316	82	278	6	5	17%	5%	64	-0.8	253/295/312	59	298	1	1	15%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Jose Montenegro 2006 · AAA	30	48	43→40	40→30	52	234/292/343	109	253	11	5	13%	7%	77	+0.1	232/292/336	104	269	10	7	17%	7%	76	+0.1	242/315/320	78	290	8	0	18%	9%	76	+0.0