Trey Yesavage — OGILVIE

Trey Yesavage P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.9 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION87 act + 50 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9989vR 80

ERA3.94

FIP3.80

K%25.7%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD4050

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p7629.3%

p5022.2%

xwOBA vs

p790.284

FB-0.5 (45%)

SL-0.7 (28%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.081 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+1.8	$11M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$11M	+1.8	$11M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$16M	+1.7	$9M	+$0.2M
Totals		$35M		$53M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MIX	5 levels	28	25	112	451	176	48	8	89%	4.0	31.5%	11.7%	19.8%	2.4%	3.13	3.22	+2.9
2025	22	MIX	5 levels	28	25	112	451	176	48	8	89%	4.0	39.0%	10.6%	28.4%	1.8%	3.13	2.17	+4.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	18	17	87	367	85	46	10	94%	4.8	22.2%	12.5%	9.6%	2.3%	4.24	4.05	+1.1
ROS	23	MLB	TOR	9	9	50	211	54	26	5	100%	5.6	25.7%	12.3%	13.4%	2.4%	3.94	3.80	+0.4
ROS	23	MLB	TOR	9	9	50	211	54	26	5	100%	5.6	25.7%	12.3%	13.4%	2.4%	3.94	3.80	+0.4
2026 TOT	23	MLB	TOR	—	—	137	578	139	72	15	—	—	24.1%	12.4%	11.6%	2.6%	4.13	3.96	+2.3
2026 FULL	23	MLB	TOR	—	—	125	528	139	72	15	—	—	26.4%	13.6%	12.8%	2.9%	4.53	4.16	+1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TOR	22	22	124	524	140	58	13	100%	5.6	26.8%	11.1%	15.7%	2.4%	4.08	3.95	+2.1
2028	25	MLB	TOR	25	25	144	606	162	63	15	100%	5.7	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	2.5%	3.97	3.87	+2.6
2029	26	MLB	TOR	26	26	156	657	176	67	16	100%	6.0	26.8%	10.1%	16.6%	2.5%	3.92	3.87	+2.8
2030	27	MLB	TOR	26	26	157	664	177	67	17	100%	6.1	26.6%	10.2%	16.5%	2.5%	3.92	3.92	+2.7
2031	28	MLB	TOR	26	26	157	664	176	68	18	100%	6.1	26.5%	10.3%	16.2%	2.6%	3.97	4.00	+2.6
2032	29	MLB	TOR	25	25	150	634	164	67	18	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.5%	15.4%	2.8%	4.08	4.16	+2.2
2033	30	MLB	TOR	24	24	141	596	150	65	18	100%	5.9	25.2%	10.8%	14.4%	3.0%	4.25	4.37	+1.7
2034	31	MLB	TOR	22	22	132	556	136	62	18	100%	6.0	24.5%	11.2%	13.3%	3.2%	4.46	4.60	+1.2
2035	32	MLB	TOR	20	20	122	514	122	60	18	100%	6.1	23.7%	11.6%	12.1%	3.5%	4.70	4.85	+0.8
2027	24	MLB	TOR	21	21	118	498	133	55	12	100%	5.6	26.8%	11.1%	15.7%	2.4%	4.08	3.95	+2.0
2028	25	MLB	TOR	23	23	136	574	154	59	14	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	2.5%	3.97	3.87	+2.4
2029	26	MLB	TOR	25	25	148	625	167	63	16	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.1%	16.6%	2.5%	3.92	3.87	+2.6
2030	27	MLB	TOR	25	25	149	629	168	64	16	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.2%	16.5%	2.5%	3.92	3.92	+2.6
2031	28	MLB	TOR	25	25	149	629	167	65	17	100%	6.0	26.5%	10.3%	16.2%	2.6%	3.97	4.00	+2.4
2032	29	MLB	TOR	24	24	143	604	157	64	17	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.5%	15.4%	2.8%	4.08	4.16	+2.1
2033	30	MLB	TOR	22	22	134	566	143	61	17	100%	6.1	25.2%	10.8%	14.4%	3.0%	4.25	4.37	+1.6
2034	31	MLB	TOR	21	21	125	528	129	59	17	100%	6.0	24.5%	11.2%	13.3%	3.2%	4.46	4.60	+1.2
2035	32	MLB	TOR	19	19	116	490	116	57	17	100%	6.1	23.7%	11.6%	12.1%	3.5%	4.70	4.85	+0.7
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			232	232	1358	5729	1473	619	154	100%	5.9	25.7%	10.8%	14.9%	2.7%	4.09	3.78	+25.8
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	217	91	23	100%	5.9	25.7%	10.8%	14.9%	2.7%	4.09	3.78	+3.8
Career	—			46	42	199	818	224	99	19	91%	4.3	27.3%	12.1%	15.3%	2.3%	3.62	3.59	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—			46	42	200	822	225	99	19	91%	4.3	27.3%	12.1%	15.3%	2.3%	3.62	3.59	+4.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Yesavage (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.73	31.3%	12.0%	2.5%	—	3.89	26.8%	16.3%	423	+0.16	—	—	—
Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	81
Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP	24	SP-	3.29	23.4%	11.9%	1.2%	.316	4.60	23.0%	9.5%	109	+1.31	3.29	142	81
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	80
TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP	23	SP	4.82	21.7%	13.8%	3.3%	.311	5.12	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.30	3.36	432	80
Glenn Sparkman R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP	3.90	20.0%	11.6%	1.8%	.296	3.61	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.29	3.48	363	79
Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	22.1%	14.4%	2.5%	.258	3.67	18.9%	11.8%	126	-0.75	3.27	218	77
Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.6%	7.4%	2.6%	.241	5.26	18.3%	7.9%	176	+1.61	3.65	211	77
River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	26.1%	12.2%	2.1%	.321	3.86	20.4%	9.1%	134	+0.28	2.13	218	76
Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	22.0%	10.4%	4.2%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	-0.02	3.51	140	76
Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	23	SP	3.31	21.9%	9.2%	1.6%	.281	7.92	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.61	3.31	191	76
Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP-	4.03	23.6%	11.1%	2.8%	.312	5.16	22.3%	9.9%	93	+1.13	4.03	152	76
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	.275	4.09	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.36	3.05	181	76
Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP-	3.56	21.9%	8.3%	2.3%	.284	3.43	20.0%	10.3%	195	-0.13	2.97	258	75
Angel Jimenez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	22.7%	9.7%	2.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	194	75
Sean Mooney R 2026 · 3.45 FIP	23	SP	3.45	30.2%	15.3%	1.8%	.250	4.82	24.7%	11.2%	60	+1.37	3.45	102	74
Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	21.7%	8.4%	3.5%	.329	3.55	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.68	2.49	298	74
Keith Rogalla R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP-	3.55	21.2%	11.7%	1.4%	.344	3.62	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.07	3.00	113	74
Nolan Perry R 2025 · 3.24 FIP	22	SP	3.24	29.0%	9.7%	2.5%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	136	74
Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.53	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.05	4.07	338	73
Gus Varland R 2025 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP-	4.13	19.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.294	5.81	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.68	2.54	304	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	138	26.3%	10.7%	1.06	4.11
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	7	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89