Trey Yesavage

P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX5 levels	28	25	112	3.13	2.17	39.0%	10.6%	4.6	K 31.4% · BB 11.3% · FIP 3.10
2026	23	MIX3 levels	25	24	110	4.16	4.31	24.5%	11.9%	1.4	K 24.2% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.18
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	13	13	71	3.98	4.24	26.9%	11.6%	1.0
2028PROJ93% MLB	25	MLBTOR	13	13	77	4.06	4.11	27.3%	10.9%	1.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBTOR	13	13	79	4.08	4.09	27.5%	10.8%	1.2

Last 2 seasons WAR 6.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.081First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$3M2030Arb-2$5M2031Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs79

K%61

FB Velo45

CompsKyle Bradish (age 24) · Isaac Coffey (age 24) · Brody McCullough (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 88

ERA3.98

FIP4.24

K%26.9%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%15.4%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$30M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p8130.2%

p6124.2%

xwOBA vs

p790.284

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.081 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$8M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+1.2	$8M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+1.0	$6M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$39M	+$27M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	28	25	112	451	176	48	8	89%	4.0	31.4%	11.3%	20.1%	2.2%	3.13	3.10	+3.2
2025	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	28	25	112	451	176	48	8	89%	4.0	31.4%	11.3%	20.1%	2.2%	3.13	3.10	+3.2
2025	22	MIX RAW	5 levels	28	25	112	451	176	48	8	89%	4.0	39.0%	10.6%	28.4%	1.8%	3.13	2.17	+4.6
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	24	110	462	113	55	15	96%	4.4	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	3.0%	4.16	4.18	+1.6
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	24	110	462	113	55	15	96%	4.4	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	3.0%	4.16	4.18	+1.6
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	24	110	462	113	55	15	96%	4.4	24.5%	11.9%	12.6%	3.2%	4.16	4.31	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			23	23	112	463	113	54	12	100%	4.9	24.4%	11.7%	12.7%	2.6%	3.63	3.92	+2.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	13	13	71	300	81	35	9	100%	5.5	26.9%	11.6%	15.4%	2.9%	3.98	4.24	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	83	350	96	38	10	100%	5.9	27.3%	10.9%	16.5%	2.8%	4.06	4.11	+1.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	84	353	97	38	10	100%	6.0	27.5%	10.8%	16.7%	2.8%	4.08	4.09	+1.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	81	344	95	37	10	100%	5.8	27.5%	10.9%	16.6%	2.9%	4.11	4.12	+1.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	78	328	90	36	10	100%	6.0	27.4%	11.1%	16.4%	3.0%	4.17	4.21	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	68	289	77	33	9	100%	6.2	26.8%	11.3%	15.5%	3.1%	4.29	4.37	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	57	240	63	28	8	100%	6.3	26.1%	11.6%	14.5%	3.3%	4.46	4.58	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	7	7	44	187	47	22	7	100%	6.3	25.4%	11.9%	13.4%	3.6%	4.67	4.81	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	TOR	5	5	32	135	33	17	5	100%	6.4	24.6%	12.3%	12.2%	3.8%	4.91	5.06	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	77	325	89	35	9	100%	5.9	27.3%	10.9%	16.5%	2.8%	4.06	4.11	+1.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	79	334	92	36	9	100%	6.1	27.5%	10.8%	16.7%	2.8%	4.08	4.09	+1.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	77	325	90	35	9	100%	5.9	27.5%	10.9%	16.6%	2.9%	4.11	4.12	+1.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	74	312	86	35	9	100%	6.2	27.4%	11.1%	16.4%	3.0%	4.17	4.21	+1.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	65	274	74	31	9	100%	5.9	26.8%	11.3%	15.5%	3.1%	4.29	4.37	+0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	54	228	60	26	8	100%	6.0	26.1%	11.6%	14.5%	3.3%	4.46	4.58	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	42	177	45	21	6	100%	6.0	25.4%	11.9%	13.4%	3.6%	4.67	4.81	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	TOR	5	5	30	127	31	16	5	100%	6.0	24.6%	12.3%	12.2%	3.8%	4.91	5.06	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	106	611	2569	679	290	77	100%	5.8	26.4%	11.3%	15.1%	3.0%	4.15	3.94	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	842	222	95	25	100%	5.7	26.4%	11.3%	15.1%	3.0%	4.15	3.94	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		53	49	222	913	253	105	24	92%	4.2	27.8%	11.5%	16.2%	2.6%	3.64	3.65	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	44	200	821	228	95	21	92%	4.2	27.8%	11.5%	16.2%	2.6%	3.64	3.65	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 7 IPFIP 6.43 → 6.74 (+0.31)K% 18.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.42%	—	×0.860	15.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×0.900	14.21%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.79%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.43 → 6.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 5 IPFIP 3.28 → 5.06 (+1.77)K% 39.1% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.13%	—	×0.740	28.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.180	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.65%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 33 IPFIP 1.54 → 2.65 (+1.11)K% 43.3% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.31%	—	×0.740	32.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.30%	—	×1.180	7.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.36%	÷1.284	×1.300	2.39%

Result: FIP 1.54 → 2.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 30 IPFIP 2.40 → 3.61 (+1.21)K% 38.0% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.02%	—	×0.810	30.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷0.885	×1.200	3.36%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 2.40 → 3.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 17 IPFIP 1.99 → 2.22 (+0.23)K% 36.1% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.11%	—	×0.860	31.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.28%	—	×0.900	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.847	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.99 → 2.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 17 IPFIP 2.67 → 4.64 (+1.97)K% 47.8% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.83%	—	×0.770	36.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.94%	—	×1.150	18.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷0.855	×1.250	4.24%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Yesavage (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.11	27.5%	16.6%	248	-0.13	—	—	—
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	82
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	81
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	81
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	79
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	79
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.10	18.0%	7.8%	304	+1.16	3.61	547	79
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	78
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	78
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	78
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	78
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	78
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	78
Jackson Baumeister R 2024 · 3.32 FIP	22	SP	3.32	25.2%	13.4%	1.2%	.270	5.44	18.9%	6.2%	166	+2.12	3.32	265	77
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	77
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	77
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	77
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	77
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.53	25.0%	17.4%	216	-0.14	2.28	474	76
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	75
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	72	26.5%	11.3%	1.16	4.13
Danny Frisella ('67-'76, 4 WAR*)	3.0	68	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.25*	3.99*
Dave LaRoche ('70-'83, 10 WAR*)	5.2	81	27.8%*	10.1%*	1.16*	4.03*
Lance McCullers ('85-'92, 5 WAR*)	2.6	88	25.7%*	11.1%*	1.13*	3.70*
Ugueth Urbina ('05)	3.5	70	27.9%	10.5%	1.11	3.45
Juan Cruz ('12)	3.3	60	23.1%	12.1%	0.92	4.05
Al Reyes ('08)	2.1	54	23.2%	10.7%	1.11	3.84