Trey Yesavage — OGILVIE

Trey Yesavage P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.8 · 2029 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION106 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 82

ERA3.90

FIP3.74

K%26.0%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%14.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$38M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p8030.0%

p5823.6%

xwOBA vs

p780.285

FB-0.5 (45%)

SL-0.7 (28%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.081 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$13M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+2.1	$13M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+2.1	$12M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$18M	+1.9	$10M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$21M		$61M	+$35M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	28	25	112	451	176	48	8	89%	4.0	31.3%	11.3%	19.9%	2.2%	3.13	3.12	+2.5
2025	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	28	25	112	451	176	48	8	89%	4.0	31.3%	11.3%	19.9%	2.2%	3.13	3.12	+2.5
2025	22	MIX RAW	5 levels	28	25	112	451	176	48	8	89%	4.0	39.0%	10.6%	28.4%	1.8%	3.13	2.17	+3.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	21	108	448	107	53	10	100%	5.1	23.9%	11.8%	12.1%	2.2%	3.59	3.80	+1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	22	21	106	442	107	53	13	95%	4.8	23.6%	11.9%	11.7%	2.6%	4.09	4.04	+1.1
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	22	21	106	442	107	53	13	95%	4.8	23.6%	11.9%	11.7%	2.6%	4.09	4.04	+1.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	TOR	2	1	5	23	9	2	1	50%	2.6	39.1%	8.7%	30.4%	4.3%	8.44	3.28	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	TOR	2	2	7	33	7	5	2	100%	3.4	21.2%	15.2%	6.1%	6.1%	6.75	6.55	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	TOR	18	18	94	386	91	46	10	100%	5.2	23.6%	11.9%	11.7%	2.6%	3.65	4.04	+1.0
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	TOR	18	18	94	386	91	46	10	100%	5.2	23.6%	11.9%	11.7%	2.6%	3.65	4.04	+1.0
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TOR	1	1	6	24	6	3	1	100%	5.7	26.0%	11.7%	14.3%	2.5%	3.90	3.74	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	TOR	1	1	6	25	7	3	1	100%	6.0	26.0%	11.7%	14.3%	2.5%	3.90	3.74	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	111	466	113	56	14	—	—	24.3%	12.0%	12.3%	2.9%	4.08	4.03	+1.2
FULL	23	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	99	420	113	56	14	—	—	27.0%	13.3%	13.7%	3.2%	4.57	4.28	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	132	558	152	61	14	100%	5.5	27.3%	10.8%	16.4%	2.5%	4.04	3.91	+1.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	26	26	152	641	177	66	16	100%	5.8	27.7%	10.3%	17.4%	2.5%	3.89	3.80	+2.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	27	27	164	692	193	71	17	100%	6.1	27.9%	10.2%	17.6%	2.5%	3.82	3.78	+2.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	28	28	165	698	194	72	18	100%	5.9	27.9%	10.3%	17.5%	2.5%	3.82	3.81	+2.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	28	28	165	698	194	73	18	100%	5.9	27.7%	10.5%	17.3%	2.6%	3.87	3.90	+2.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	26	26	158	667	181	71	18	100%	6.1	27.2%	10.7%	16.5%	2.8%	3.98	4.06	+1.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	148	627	166	69	19	100%	5.9	26.5%	11.0%	15.5%	3.0%	4.15	4.27	+1.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	138	584	150	66	19	100%	6.0	25.7%	11.3%	14.4%	3.2%	4.36	4.50	+0.6
2035	32	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	128	540	135	64	19	100%	6.1	24.9%	11.8%	13.2%	3.4%	4.59	4.75	+0.2
2036	33	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	117	496	119	60	18	100%	5.9	24.1%	12.2%	11.8%	3.7%	4.85	5.03	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	125	528	144	57	13	100%	5.7	27.3%	10.8%	16.4%	2.5%	4.04	3.91	+1.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	25	25	144	608	168	63	15	100%	5.8	27.7%	10.3%	17.4%	2.5%	3.89	3.80	+1.9
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	26	26	156	659	184	68	16	100%	6.0	27.9%	10.2%	17.6%	2.5%	3.82	3.78	+2.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	26	26	157	663	185	68	17	100%	6.0	27.9%	10.3%	17.5%	2.5%	3.82	3.81	+2.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	26	26	157	663	184	69	17	100%	6.0	27.7%	10.5%	17.3%	2.6%	3.87	3.90	+1.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	25	25	150	633	172	68	17	100%	6.0	27.2%	10.7%	16.5%	2.8%	3.98	4.06	+1.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	24	24	141	595	157	65	18	100%	5.9	26.5%	11.0%	15.5%	3.0%	4.15	4.27	+1.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	131	553	142	63	18	100%	6.0	25.7%	11.3%	14.4%	3.2%	4.36	4.50	+0.6
2035	32	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	122	515	128	61	18	100%	6.1	24.9%	11.8%	13.2%	3.4%	4.59	4.75	+0.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	112	473	114	58	18	100%	5.9	24.1%	12.2%	11.8%	3.7%	4.85	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		257	257	1508	6362	1691	695	177	100%	5.9	26.6%	10.9%	15.7%	2.8%	4.07	3.76	+20.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	224	92	23	100%	5.9	26.6%	10.9%	15.7%	2.8%	4.07	3.76	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		50	46	218	893	245	104	21	92%	4.4	27.5%	11.6%	15.8%	2.4%	3.60	3.57	+14.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	42	200	821	225	95	20	92%	4.4	27.5%	11.6%	15.8%	2.4%	3.60	3.57	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Yesavage (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.66	30.7%	11.3%	2.4%	—	3.83	27.6%	17.2%	448	+0.17	—	—	—
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	81
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	80
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	80
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	78
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	77
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	76
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	76
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	76
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	75
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	75
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	74
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	73
Sean Mooney R 2021 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	30.2%	15.3%	1.6%	.250	4.70	24.7%	11.2%	60	+1.34	3.36	102	73
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	73
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	73
Nick Frasso R 2022 · 2.60 FIP	23	SP	2.60	27.2%	9.2%	1.1%	.265	3.82	19.3%	9.9%	170	+1.22	2.60	268	73
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	73
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	72
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	72
Kyle Funkhouser R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	24.5%	8.7%	2.1%	.329	4.40	19.0%	5.9%	193	+1.12	3.28	387	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.8	141	27.0%	10.9%	1.08	4.09
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17