Trey Yesavage — OGILVIE

Trey Yesavage P Dunedin Blue Jays

+2.0 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.7 · 2029

ERA3.63

FIP3.90

xFIP3.23

SIERA3.87

K%27.5%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%16.4%

IP112

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.7peak

2029

OFP—60

K†6565

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p9035.4%

p7025.8%

xwOBA vs

p480.314

FB-0.5 (45%)

SL-0.7 (28%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	28	25	112	451	176	48	8	31.5%	11.7%	2.2%	3.13	3.14	+2.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	3	2	10	42	14	3	3	—	—	—	7.45	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	TOR	20	20	112	473	130	52	12	27.5%	11.1%	2.4%	3.63	3.90	+1.8
2026 Total	23	MLB	TOR	—	—	122	515	144	55	15	28.0%	10.8%	2.8%	3.93	3.59	+2.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	TOR	24	24	131	552	152	56	14	27.5%	10.1%	2.5%	3.75	3.80	+2.2
2028	25	MLB	TOR	26	26	144	610	167	58	15	27.5%	9.6%	2.5%	3.76	3.74	+2.6
2029	26	MLB	TOR	28	28	151	639	175	60	16	27.4%	9.4%	2.5%	3.76	3.74	+2.7
2030	27	MLB	TOR	28	28	154	651	178	61	17	27.3%	9.4%	2.5%	3.77	3.77	+2.7
2031	28	MLB	TOR	28	28	154	650	177	61	17	27.2%	9.4%	2.6%	3.78	3.79	+2.6
2032	29	MLB	TOR	27	27	150	635	170	61	17	26.8%	9.5%	2.6%	3.83	3.87	+2.4
2033	30	MLB	TOR	27	27	146	616	162	59	17	26.2%	9.6%	2.7%	3.91	3.96	+2.2
2034	31	MLB	TOR	26	26	141	595	152	58	16	25.6%	9.8%	2.8%	4.00	4.06	+2.0
2035	32	MLB	TOR	25	25	135	571	143	57	16	25.0%	9.9%	2.8%	4.11	4.18	+1.7
2036	33	MLB	TOR	23	23	129	546	133	55	16	24.3%	10.1%	2.9%	4.23	4.31	+1.5
2037	34	MLB	TOR	22	22	123	518	122	53	16	23.6%	10.3%	3.0%	4.36	4.45	+1.2
2038	35	MLB	TOR	21	21	116	488	112	51	15	22.9%	10.5%	3.1%	4.50	4.60	+0.9
2039	36	MLB	TOR	20	20	108	456	101	49	15	22.1%	10.8%	3.3%	4.66	4.76	+0.7
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			31	27	122	493	156	56	13	31.7%	11.3%	2.7%	3.48	3.31	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—			51	44	200	810	256	92	21	31.7%	11.3%	2.7%	3.48	3.31	+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Yesavage (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.90	27.5%	11.1%	2.4%	—	3.76	27.4%	17.8%	427	-0.14	—	—	—
Tyler Guilfoil R 2026 · 3.17 FIP	23	SP-	3.17	26.0%	12.3%	1.3%	.305	5.51	17.8%	4.4%	190	+2.34	3.17	274	72
Vince Velasquez R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	23	SP-	3.18	26.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.290	3.84	25.5%	16.5%	350	+0.66	3.18	891	72
Jharel Cotton R 2026 · 3.27 FIP	23	SP-	3.27	23.7%	9.4%	1.8%	.289	4.73	22.1%	14.5%	315	+1.46	3.20	560	70
Jake Smith R 2028 · 3.11 FIP	25	SP-	3.11	28.1%	7.5%	2.6%	.243	4.69	19.3%	-1.7%	26	+1.58	3.11	110	69
Ryan Lobus R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP-	3.69	27.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.277	3.60	23.4%	13.3%	67	-0.09	3.60	156	69
David Festa R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP-	3.70	24.6%	11.6%	2.2%	.341	3.76	27.5%	18.8%	209	+0.06	3.66	405	68
Austin Bergner R 2027 · 4.92 FIP	24	SP-	4.92	24.0%	10.9%	4.5%	.277	4.93	21.7%	9.6%	274	+0.01	4.04	448	67
Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP-	3.60	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.55	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.05	3.55	205	67
Walker Buehler R 2026 · 2.78 FIP	23	SP-	2.78	28.6%	9.4%	1.7%	.311	2.80	28.5%	22.5%	369	+0.02	2.65	982	67
Matt Brash R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	23	SP-	3.48	27.8%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	2.75	32.2%	20.3%	147	-0.73	1.90	292	66
Ian Gardeck R 2027 · 2.93 FIP	24	SP-	2.93	22.4%	7.7%	1.4%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	105	66
Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP-	4.01	25.1%	7.5%	3.8%	.256	5.52	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.51	4.01	277	66
Chase Silseth R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	24.4%	11.5%	2.4%	.264	5.03	17.5%	2.8%	67	+1.23	3.46	277	66
Landen Roupp R 2026 · 3.01 FIP	23	SP-	3.01	26.9%	9.8%	1.7%	.274	3.40	23.3%	12.8%	209	+0.39	1.83	339	65
CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	65
Trent Sellers R 2027 · 3.41 FIP	24	SP-	3.41	23.4%	13.2%	1.1%	.211	4.51	21.8%	8.5%	96	+1.10	3.41	178	65
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP-	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.41	21.9%	10.5%	63	+0.76	3.65	156	65
Ben Gross R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP-	4.02	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.83	4.02	118	65
Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 3.02 FIP	23	SP-	3.02	24.3%	11.5%	0.9%	.281	3.17	29.6%	17.6%	108	+0.15	3.02	341	64
K.C. Hunt R 2027 · 2.68 FIP	24	SP-	2.68	26.8%	7.1%	1.7%	.277	4.34	19.3%	10.3%	121	+1.66	2.68	223	64

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.081 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$14M	+$14M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$18M	+$17M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$22M	+$21M
2029	Arb-1	$9M	+2.7	$24M	+$15M
2030	Arb-2	$15M	+2.7	$24M	+$9M
2031	Arb-3	$22M	+2.6	$24M	+$2M
Totals		$49M		$127M	+$77M