Emmet Sheehan

P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX3 levels	28	22	123	3.65	3.64	33.4%	11.1%	2.6	K 29.5% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.95
2025	25	MIX3 levels	21	18	93	3.10	2.58	33.8%	6.5%	3.3	K 31.8% · BB 6.5% · FIP 2.78
2026	26	MIX2 levels	27	26	130	4.14	3.70	28.8%	7.2%	2.7	K 28.2% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.66
2027PROJ	27	MLBLAD	16	16	99	3.67	3.72	29.6%	6.4%	2.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBLAD	16	16	94	3.83	3.88	29.5%	6.6%	1.8
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBLAD	15	15	90	3.97	4.05	28.9%	6.8%	1.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.285First FA2030

2027Arb-1$4M2028Arb-2$7M2029Arb-3$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%81

xwOBA vs71

FB Velo48

Form0.53 ERA (proj 3.67) · K 40.0% (proj 29.6%) · BB 5.0% (proj 6.4%) ▲▲ last 60d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsK.C. Hunt (age 24) · Alec Marsh (age 26) · Erik Hiljus (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 83

ERA3.67

FIP3.72

K%29.6%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%23.2%

Proj IP99

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5555

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p9031.6%

p8128.0%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.285 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$4M	+2.0	$16M	+$12M
2028	Arb-2	$7M	+1.8	$13M	+$7M
2029	Arb-3	$9M	+1.5	$10M	+$3M
Totals		$20M		$40M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	2	16	68	34	8	2	29%	2.2	35.7%	10.5%	25.1%	4.8%	5.17	4.06	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	2	16	68	34	8	2	29%	2.2	50.0%	11.8%	38.2%	2.9%	5.17	1.95	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	14	68	279	106	31	3	70%	3.4	29.8%	12.3%	17.5%	0.9%	2.91	2.67	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	14	68	279	106	31	3	70%	3.4	38.0%	11.1%	26.9%	1.1%	2.91	1.92	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	22	123	497	166	55	18	79%	4.4	29.5%	11.2%	18.3%	3.5%	3.65	3.95	+2.1
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	22	123	497	166	55	18	79%	4.4	33.4%	11.1%	22.3%	3.6%	3.65	3.64	+2.6
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	18	93	370	125	24	10	86%	4.4	31.8%	6.5%	25.2%	2.8%	3.10	2.78	+3.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	18	93	370	125	24	10	86%	4.4	31.8%	6.5%	25.2%	2.8%	3.10	2.78	+3.0
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	18	93	370	125	24	10	86%	4.4	33.8%	6.5%	27.3%	2.7%	3.10	2.58	+3.3
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	130	541	156	39	21	96%	4.8	28.2%	7.1%	21.1%	3.7%	4.14	3.66	+2.7
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	130	541	156	39	21	96%	4.8	28.2%	7.1%	21.1%	3.7%	4.14	3.66	+2.7
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	130	541	156	39	21	96%	4.8	28.8%	7.2%	21.6%	3.9%	4.14	3.70	+2.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			51	45	246	1011	285	80	39	88%	4.8	28.2%	7.9%	20.3%	3.9%	4.13	3.82	+4.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	LAD	16	16	99	418	124	27	15	100%	6.2	29.6%	6.4%	23.2%	3.5%	3.67	3.72	+2.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	99	419	124	28	15	100%	5.8	29.5%	6.6%	22.9%	3.6%	3.75	3.80	+1.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	95	400	116	27	15	100%	5.9	28.9%	6.8%	22.1%	3.8%	3.88	3.96	+1.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	89	376	106	27	15	100%	5.9	28.2%	7.1%	21.1%	4.0%	4.05	4.17	+1.3
2031	31	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	82	347	95	26	15	100%	5.9	27.5%	7.4%	20.0%	4.2%	4.26	4.40	+1.0
2032	32	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	77	325	93	23	14	100%	5.9	28.6%	7.0%	21.6%	4.4%	4.34	4.39	+0.9
2033	33	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	70	295	82	22	14	100%	5.8	27.8%	7.5%	20.3%	4.7%	4.53	4.66	+0.6
2034	34	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	55	232	62	19	12	100%	6.1	26.9%	8.0%	18.9%	5.0%	4.79	4.97	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	94	397	117	26	15	100%	5.9	29.5%	6.6%	22.9%	3.8%	3.83	3.88	+1.8
2029	29	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	90	380	110	26	15	100%	6.0	28.9%	6.8%	22.1%	3.9%	3.97	4.05	+1.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	85	359	101	25	15	100%	6.1	28.2%	7.1%	21.1%	4.1%	4.14	4.26	+1.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	78	329	90	25	14	100%	6.0	27.5%	7.4%	20.0%	4.4%	4.36	4.50	+0.9
2032	32	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	73	308	88	22	14	100%	6.1	28.6%	7.0%	21.6%	4.6%	4.44	4.49	+0.9
2033	33	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	66	279	77	21	14	100%	6.0	27.8%	7.5%	20.3%	4.9%	4.64	4.77	+0.6
2034	34	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	50	211	57	17	11	100%	6.2	26.9%	8.0%	18.9%	5.2%	4.91	5.09	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		140	134	782	3276	927	242	137	96%	5.6	28.3%	7.4%	20.9%	4.2%	4.22	3.94	+13.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	837	237	62	35	96%	5.6	28.3%	7.4%	20.9%	4.2%	4.22	3.94	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		103	82	430	1755	524	160	54	80%	4.2	29.9%	9.1%	20.8%	3.1%	3.62	3.41	+12.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	38	200	816	244	74	25	80%	4.2	29.9%	9.1%	20.8%	3.1%	3.62	3.41	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 18 IPFIP 1.45 → 1.73 (+0.28)K% 34.8% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.78%	—	×0.860	29.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.14%	—	×0.900	9.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.45 → 1.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 18 IPFIP 2.12 → 2.92 (+0.81)K% 42.5% → 36.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.47%	—	×0.860	36.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.74%	—	×0.900	2.47%
HR / BF /BF	4.11%	÷0.956	×1.100	4.73%

Result: FIP 2.12 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATulsa Drillers · 53 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.21 (+0.95)K% 41.7% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.71%	—	×0.810	33.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.90%	—	×1.100	11.99%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷1.083	×1.200	2.63%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 10 IPFIP 4.88 → 5.38 (+0.51)K% 36.8% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.84%	—	×0.860	31.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×0.900	14.21%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷1.006	×1.100	5.76%

Result: FIP 4.88 → 5.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Great Lakes Loons · 64 IPFIP 1.61 → 2.67 (+1.05)K% 38.7% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.70%	—	×0.770	29.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.73%	—	×1.150	12.34%
HR / BF /BF	0.77%	÷1.013	×1.250	0.95%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 1.61 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 13 IPFIP 2.12 → 4.06 (+1.94)K% 48.2% → 35.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.21%	—	×0.740	35.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×1.180	10.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷0.965	×1.300	4.81%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.12 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emmet Sheehan (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.72	29.6%	6.4%	3.5%	—	3.97	28.9%	22.1%	283	+0.25	—	—	—
K.C. Hunt R 2024 · 2.69 FIP	24	SP-	2.69	26.8%	7.1%	1.8%	.277	4.94	17.5%	6.4%	186	+2.25	2.69	288	64
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	64
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	64
Kutter Crawford R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	27	SP-	3.62	25.6%	6.8%	3.3%	.265	4.53	23.1%	16.4%	184	+0.91	3.30	741	64
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	63
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP	4.67	26.6%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.47	19.9%	12.1%	172	-0.20	3.87	512	63
Aaron Civale R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	27	SP	3.63	24.4%	5.4%	3.5%	.294	4.08	21.7%	14.5%	385	+0.45	3.33	1,207	62
Griffin Canning R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	27	SP	3.95	25.9%	6.5%	4.0%	.291	4.64	19.8%	9.8%	352	+0.69	3.60	809	62
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	62
Joaquín Benoit R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	27	SP-	4.49	20.8%	6.8%	4.2%	.302	3.31	23.7%	14.5%	249	-1.18	1.99	1,064	62
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	62
Tanner Bibee R 2024 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	26.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.280	4.29	20.1%	13.1%	370	+0.92	3.13	834	62
Dinelson Lamet R 2019 · 3.74 FIP	27	SP	3.74	32.7%	9.2%	4.1%	.286	2.90	31.4%	21.8%	148	-0.84	2.11	778	61
Christian Scott R 2024 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP	4.68	23.9%	6.3%	5.1%	.249	3.48	27.9%	18.7%	124	-1.20	2.56	358	61
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	61
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	60
Matt Shoemaker R 2014 · 3.12 FIP	27	SP-	3.12	22.8%	4.4%	2.5%	.283	4.02	21.0%	15.3%	373	+0.90	3.12	728	60
Vince Velasquez R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	27	SP-	4.56	25.2%	7.9%	4.7%	.295	4.64	24.2%	14.3%	204	+0.08	3.26	964	60
Landon Knack R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	24.2%	8.1%	3.9%	.264	4.78	19.1%	9.5%	191	+0.56	3.64	556	59
Louis Varland R 2024 · 4.42 FIP	26	SP-	4.42	21.7%	7.2%	4.1%	.329	2.31	28.6%	21.4%	151	-2.11	1.70	689	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	83	28.4%	7.3%	1.55	4.11
Joe Price ('80-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	82	23.3%*	8.8%*	1.49*	4.15*
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*
Shawn Kelley ('19)	2.3	46	27.0%	7.3%	1.47	3.80
Enrique Romo ('77-'82, 6 WAR*)	3.0	100	26.0%*	8.2%*	1.33*	3.81*
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.7	90	24.6%	7.6%	1.62	4.54