Emmet Sheehan — OGILVIE

Emmet Sheehan P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 82

ERA3.36

FIP3.34

K%28.7%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%21.7%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5555

CMD6565

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p8931.4%

p7827.3%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

SL+2.4 (30%)

CH (16%)

CU (12%)

FB-6.0 (43%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.465 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.5M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$8M	+$5M
2028	Arb-3	$6M	+1.0	$7M	+$2M
2029	Arb-4	$8M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$18M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	2	16	68	34	8	2	29%	2.2	35.7%	10.5%	25.1%	4.8%	5.17	4.06	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	2	16	68	34	8	2	29%	2.2	50.0%	11.8%	38.2%	2.9%	5.17	1.95	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	14	68	279	106	31	3	70%	3.4	29.8%	12.3%	17.5%	0.9%	2.91	2.67	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	14	68	279	106	31	3	70%	3.4	38.0%	11.1%	26.9%	1.1%	2.91	1.92	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	22	123	497	166	55	18	79%	4.4	29.5%	11.2%	18.3%	3.5%	3.65	3.95	+1.4
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	22	123	497	166	55	18	79%	4.4	29.5%	11.2%	18.3%	3.5%	3.65	3.95	+1.4
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	22	123	497	166	55	18	79%	4.4	33.4%	11.1%	22.3%	3.6%	3.65	3.64	+1.9
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	18	93	370	125	24	10	86%	4.4	31.5%	6.5%	25.0%	2.8%	3.10	2.80	+2.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	18	93	370	125	24	10	86%	4.4	31.5%	6.5%	25.0%	2.8%	3.10	2.80	+2.4
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	18	93	370	125	24	10	86%	4.4	33.8%	6.5%	27.3%	2.7%	3.10	2.58	+2.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			49	44	235	972	271	78	39	90%	4.8	27.9%	8.0%	19.9%	4.0%	4.33	3.95	+2.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	25	25	119	502	142	37	21	100%	4.8	27.5%	7.2%	20.2%	4.0%	4.54	3.90	+1.4
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	25	25	119	502	142	37	21	100%	4.8	27.5%	7.2%	20.2%	4.0%	4.54	3.90	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	LAD	4	4	18	69	24	7	0	100%	4.5	34.8%	10.1%	24.6%	0.0%	1.50	1.45	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	LAD	21	21	101	433	118	30	21	100%	4.8	27.3%	6.9%	20.3%	4.8%	5.08	4.34	+0.7
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	LAD	21	21	101	433	118	30	21	100%	4.8	27.3%	6.9%	20.3%	4.8%	5.08	4.34	+0.7
ROS	26	MLB MLE	LAD	2	2	10	42	12	3	1	100%	5.0	28.7%	7.1%	21.7%	3.2%	3.36	3.34	+0.2
ROS	26	MLB CTX	LAD	2	2	10	42	12	3	1	100%	5.0	28.7%	7.1%	21.7%	3.4%	3.44	3.42	+0.2
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	129	544	154	40	22	—	—	28.3%	7.3%	21.0%	4.1%	4.45	3.86	+1.6
FULL	26	MLB A+C	LAD	—	—	111	469	154	40	22	—	—	32.9%	8.5%	24.4%	4.8%	5.17	4.03	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	119	502	145	35	20	100%	5.9	28.9%	7.0%	22.0%	3.9%	4.08	4.08	+1.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	119	502	144	36	20	100%	5.9	28.8%	7.1%	21.7%	4.0%	4.13	4.17	+1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	114	479	135	35	20	100%	6.0	28.2%	7.3%	20.9%	4.2%	4.25	4.33	+0.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	107	451	124	34	20	100%	5.9	27.5%	7.6%	19.9%	4.4%	4.42	4.53	+0.5
2031	31	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	100	420	112	34	19	100%	5.9	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	4.6%	4.63	4.76	+0.2
2032	32	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	92	388	101	33	19	100%	6.1	26.0%	8.4%	17.6%	4.9%	4.86	5.02	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	113	477	138	33	20	100%	5.9	28.9%	7.0%	22.0%	4.1%	4.17	4.17	+1.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	113	477	137	34	20	100%	5.9	28.8%	7.1%	21.7%	4.2%	4.22	4.26	+1.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	LAD	18	18	108	456	129	33	20	100%	6.0	28.2%	7.3%	20.9%	4.4%	4.35	4.43	+0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	101	426	117	33	20	100%	5.9	27.5%	7.6%	19.9%	4.6%	4.52	4.63	+0.4
2031	31	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	95	401	107	32	19	100%	5.9	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	4.8%	4.74	4.87	+0.2
2032	32	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	87	367	95	31	19	100%	6.2	26.0%	8.4%	17.6%	5.1%	4.97	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		154	149	861	3619	1007	277	157	97%	5.6	27.8%	7.6%	20.2%	4.4%	4.42	4.11	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	840	234	64	36	97%	5.6	27.8%	7.6%	20.2%	4.4%	4.42	4.11	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		101	81	419	1716	508	158	54	80%	4.1	29.6%	9.2%	20.4%	3.1%	3.72	3.48	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	39	200	819	243	75	26	80%	4.1	29.6%	9.2%	20.4%	3.1%	3.72	3.48	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emmet Sheehan (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.38	31.4%	6.8%	3.1%	—	4.19	28.6%	21.5%	351	+0.81	—	—	—
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	72
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	70
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	67
J.P. France R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	26	SP-	4.04	27.6%	11.3%	3.4%	.306	4.39	21.0%	11.4%	292	+0.35	4.04	577	66
Yu Darvish R 2016 · 2.89 FIP	29	SP	2.89	30.6%	7.6%	2.6%	.284	3.85	29.1%	21.2%	405	+0.96	1.97	1,253	66
Brandon Woodruff R 2019 · 2.69 FIP	26	SP	2.69	29.0%	6.1%	2.3%	.315	2.79	30.3%	24.0%	406	+0.10	2.68	1,247	65
Luke Weaver R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	26	SP	4.56	23.3%	7.6%	4.5%	.346	4.41	20.7%	13.8%	225	-0.15	2.54	1,038	65
Michael Grove R 2023 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP-	3.76	25.7%	5.6%	3.9%	.354	3.30	24.2%	16.2%	84	-0.46	3.15	394	65
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	65
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.16	17.5%	7.3%	304	+1.22	3.61	547	64
Thomas Hatch R 2021 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	22.6%	7.3%	3.7%	.276	4.23	19.3%	11.4%	206	+0.06	3.18	878	64
Tylor Megill R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	26	SP	3.99	27.3%	7.4%	4.1%	.302	4.01	21.9%	12.6%	323	+0.02	3.02	603	64
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	63
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	63
JT Brubaker R 2020 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	23.4%	8.3%	3.2%	.313	4.37	23.4%	15.7%	268	+0.46	3.29	862	62
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	62
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	61
Christian Scott R 2023 · 2.56 FIP	24	SP	2.56	25.6%	4.1%	2.0%	.265	4.02	25.6%	17.6%	203	+1.46	2.56	347	61
Stephen Strasburg R 2015 · 2.70 FIP	27	SP	2.70	29.6%	5.0%	2.7%	.308	2.81	29.5%	22.9%	453	+0.11	2.42	811	61
Louis Varland R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	22.7%	6.4%	3.9%	.309	3.34	25.0%	18.0%	279	-0.78	1.69	684	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	103	28.1%	7.5%	1.62	4.27
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.6	88	24.4%	7.4%	1.65	4.58
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94