Jarren Duran — OGILVIE

Jarren DuranLF Boston Red Sox

Age 29 L/R 6'0" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 3.901 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.2 · 2027

wRC+†vL 61106vR 130

AVG/OBP/SLG.263 / .332 / .449

PA696

HR18

SB31

K%23

BB%8

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

50→50

SPD

60→60

EYE

49↗50

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.4peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.901 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$8M	+1.9	$15M	+$7M
2027	Arb-2	$8M	+2.2	$18M	+$11M
2028	Arb-3	$10M	+1.8	$15M	+$6M
Totals		$25M		$49M	+$24M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$2026.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$8.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2029	CLUB OPT	$2026.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	Greenville Drive	134	130	38	7	1	1	3	28	1	12	6	.292	.313	.385	.698	.092	.366	21	2	.296	85	-2	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.0
2019	22	AA	3 teams	679	630	150	19	6	5	35	205	8	53	15	.238	.287	.311	.598	.073	.343	30	5	.264	60	-30	+5	+0	-7	+19	-1.4
2020	23	INTL	Puerto Rico	100	80	23	3	1	1	17	21	2	9	0	.287	.424	.388	.812	.100	.373	21	17	—	—	—	—	+0	-1	—	—
2021	24	AAA	2 teams	395	360	76	12	4	13	25	118	8	18	4	.211	.277	.375	.652	.164	.273	30	6	.281	73	-12	+2	-0	+1	+11	0.2
2022	25	AAA	2 teams	530	492	115	26	8	12	31	150	6	25	4	.234	.287	.392	.680	.159	.311	28	6	.293	83	-10	+3	-3	+2	+15	0.7
2023	26	MLB	2 teams	413	377	104	33	3	11	31	103	3	26	2	.276	.336	.467	.803	.191	.351	25	8	.340	118	+9	+4	-3	+1	+12	2.4
2024	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	735	671	186	42	15	22	54	160	6	34	7	.277	.337	.483	.819	.206	.333	22	7	.351	127	+22	+4	+8	+3	+21	5.8
2025	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	696	620	155	39	12	16	60	169	12	24	6	.250	.328	.429	.757	.179	.317	24	9	.330	110	+8	+2	-2	-7	+20	2.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	83	76	15	5	0	1	6	23	1	3	0	.197	.265	.303	.568	.105	.269	28	7	.257	55	-4	+1	-0	-1	+2	-0.2
ROS	29	MLB	BOS	613	552	141	35	9	15	48	148	8	28	4	.255	.324	.433	.757	.178	.319	24	8	.332	112	+9	+4	-2	-7	+17	2.2
TOT	29	MLB	BOS	696	628	156	40	9	16	54	171	9	31	4	.248	.317	.417	.734	.169	.315	25	8	.323	106	+4	+5	-2	-7	+20	1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	30	MLB	BOS	684	616	156	39	10	16	54	135	9	29	4	.253	.323	.427	.749	.174	.296	20	8	.329	110	+8	+4	-4	-7	+19	2.0
2028	31	MLB	BOS	669	603	150	38	9	15	53	134	8	26	3	.249	.318	.416	.734	.167	.295	20	8	.325	107	+5	+4	-5	-7	+19	1.6
2029	32	MLB	BOS	650	586	144	36	9	14	51	134	8	22	2	.246	.315	.410	.724	.164	.293	21	8	.321	103	+3	+4	-6	-7	+18	1.2
2030	33	MLB	BOS	620	560	135	34	8	13	48	132	7	19	1	.241	.309	.400	.709	.159	.292	21	8	.315	99	-1	+3	-6	-7	+18	0.8
2031	34	MLB	BOS	570	514	122	30	8	11	44	126	7	16	0	.237	.306	.391	.697	.154	.290	22	8	.308	94	-4	+3	-7	-6	+16	0.3
2032	35	MLB	BOS	513	463	107	26	7	9	39	119	6	13	0	.231	.299	.376	.675	.145	.287	23	8	.300	88	-7	+3	-7	-5	+15	-0.3
2033	36	MLB	BOS	450	408	91	22	6	7	34	109	5	11	0	.223	.291	.358	.649	.135	.284	24	8	.291	81	-10	+2	-8	-5	+13	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8451	7662	1893	441	116	181	627	1991	104	365	58	.247	.313	.406	.718	.159	.310	24	7	.310	96	-40	+50	-47	-61	+239	14.4
/ 162G	—			650	589	146	34	9	14	48	153	8	28	4	.248	.313	.407	.721	.160	.311	24	7	.310	96	-3	+4	-4	-5	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	Greenville Drive	134	128	47	9	1	1	5	22	1	12	6	.367	.396	.477	.872	.109	.438	16	4	.388	155	+8	+0	—	—	+4	1.2
2019	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	352	320	80	11	5	1	23	84	5	28	8	.250	.310	.325	.635	.075	.335	24	7	.287	78	-9	+2	—	—	+10	0.4
2019	22	A+	Salem Red Sox	226	199	77	13	3	4	23	44	3	18	5	.387	.458	.543	1.000	.156	.480	19	10	.441	196	+24	+2	—	—	+6	3.3
2019	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	101	90	24	5	2	1	10	20	0	7	2	.267	.340	.400	.740	.133	.329	20	10	.329	110	+1	+1	—	—	+3	0.5
2020	23	INTL	Puerto Rico	100	80	23	3	1	1	17	21	2	9	0	.287	.424	.388	.812	.100	.373	21	17	.372	143	+5	+2	—	—	+3	1.0
2021	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	112	107	23	3	2	2	4	40	0	2	1	.215	.243	.336	.580	.121	.318	36	4	.255	53	-6	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.2
2021	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	283	244	63	11	2	16	30	66	8	16	3	.258	.358	.516	.875	.258	.288	23	11	.382	151	+16	+2	—	—	+8	2.7
2022	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	223	204	45	14	3	3	14	63	4	7	1	.221	.284	.363	.647	.142	.302	28	6	.289	79	-5	+1	-3	+2	+6	0.1
2022	25	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	307	279	79	16	6	10	26	73	2	18	3	.283	.349	.491	.840	.208	.352	24	8	.369	140	+14	+2	—	—	+9	2.6
2023	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	362	332	98	34	2	8	24	90	3	24	2	.295	.347	.482	.829	.187	.381	25	7	.363	136	+15	+4	-3	+1	+10	2.8
2023	26	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	51	41	8	2	1	2	10	11	0	2	0	.195	.353	.439	.792	.244	.214	22	20	.354	129	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	735	671	191	48	14	21	54	160	6	34	7	.285	.343	.492	.835	.207	.345	22	7	.364	137	+31	+4	+8	+3	+21	6.7
2025	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	696	620	159	41	13	16	60	169	12	24	6	.256	.334	.442	.776	.185	.326	24	9	.342	120	+16	+2	-2	-7	+20	2.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			2128	1934	516	140	34	50	156	522	25	91	17	.267	.329	.452	.781	.185	.340	25	7	.343	121	+50	+11	-1	-0	+60	12.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jarren Duran (OGILVIE)	29	55	50	60	50	.253/.321/.427	.174	.297	17	31	19%	8%	112	+3.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cedric Mullins 2023 · MLB	28	53→56	51→55	56→60	50	.264/.327/.433	.169	.303	18	26	19%	8%	116	+2.8	.238/.307/.405	.167	.277	19	27	21%	8%	101	+1.8	.221/.297/.388	.167	.256	20	30	22%	9%	91	+0.9
✕Kevin Kiermaier 2019 · MLB	29	48→57	50→55	55	48	.243/.311/.406	.163	.292	17	20	23%	8%	102	+1.9	.234/.297/.390	.156	.289	15	19	24%	7%	92	+1.2	.255/.318/.395	.140	.326	12	17	24%	7%	96	+0.8
●Brett Gardner 2014 · MLB	30	55→59	43→55	60→65	53	.261/.337/.392	.130	.317	8	30	19%	9%	108	+2.3	.254/.330/.390	.136	.310	12	19	20%	9%	105	+2.1	.248/.332/.422	.175	.280	19	16	18%	10%	111	+2.5
●Will Venable 2012 · MLB	29	48→56	51→55	61→60	47	.241/.308/.410	.169	.303	18	26	26%	8%	102	+1.9	.250/.311/.412	.162	.306	16	26	23%	8%	104	+2.0	.247/.307/.401	.154	.299	16	24	22%	7%	93	+1.0
●Jacoby Ellsbury 2013 · MLB	29	56→66	52→55	54→65	50	.281/.334/.449	.167	.298	19	27	14%	7%	123	+3.3	.276/.332/.406	.130	.311	12	35	15%	7%	111	+2.5	.270/.330/.384	.114	.309	10	38	15%	7%	100	+1.7
✕Alejandro De Aza 2012 · MLB	28	56→61	44→50	56→55	47	.271/.323/.405	.134	.327	9	24	20%	6%	106	+2.2	.266/.325/.398	.132	.325	11	22	20%	7%	105	+2.1	.259/.324/.390	.131	.318	11	21	21%	8%	97	+1.6
✕Leonys Martin 2017 · MLB	29	49→55	45→50	54→60	46	.244/.299/.360	.116	.300	13	25	23%	7%	85	+0.7	.236/.291/.378	.142	.300	16	22	26%	7%	87	+0.8	.228/.286/.372	.145	.289	16	21	26%	6%	79	+0.2
●Coco Crisp 2009 · MLB	29	55→59	43→50	57→65	53	.264/.324/.385	.120	.298	9	26	15%	8%	102	+1.8	.261/.329/.395	.134	.291	11	36	14%	9%	106	+2.2	.254/.333/.409	.155	.268	16	29	12%	11%	107	+2.0
✕Ender Inciarte 2020 · MLB	29	55→62	44→45	52→60	53	.268/.330/.390	.123	.298	11	20	14%	8%	105	+2.1	.229/.297/.341	.112	.273	10	15	19%	8%	79	+0.3	.208/.270/.293	.085	.255	8	14	21%	7%	51	-0.4
✕Willie Harris 2009 · MLB	31	51→60	46→50	55→60	55	.247/.329/.391	.143	.288	12	23	18%	10%	105	+2.1	.235/.338/.383	.148	.274	14	15	18%	12%	108	+2.3	.221/.337/.353	.133	.264	12	13	20%	13%	97	+0.8
●Adam Kennedy 2005 · MLB	29	57→64	46→45	53→55	50	.277/.341/.409	.132	.315	12	19	16%	7%	115	+2.8	.272/.334/.374	.102	.313	7	19	15%	7%	103	+1.9	.270/.331/.371	.101	.303	8	18	13%	8%	96	+1.2
●Ángel Pagán 2011 · MLB	30	58→63	45→55	59→60	51	.281/.333/.424	.142	.321	10	27	16%	7%	115	+2.7	.271/.326/.402	.131	.306	9	27	14%	8%	106	+2.2	.286/.336/.412	.127	.323	8	23	13%	7%	108	+1.8
✕Corey Patterson 2009 · MLB	29	49→55	47→55	57→60	44	.245/.282/.381	.137	.268	14	34	16%	4%	83	+0.6	.235/.272/.363	.128	.286	12	26	22%	5%	74	-0.1	.237/.273/.360	.123	.296	11	28	23%	4%	70	-0.2
●Carl Crawford 2012 · MLB	30	56→65	49→55	62→65	48	.275/.324/.434	.158	.311	15	34	17%	6%	114	+2.7	.270/.314/.412	.142	.311	12	23	17%	5%	105	+2.1	.291/.334/.417	.126	.335	10	27	16%	5%	112	+1.5
●Kolten Wong 2020 · MLB	29	55→60	47→50	52→55	54	.269/.349/.412	.143	.300	13	17	15%	9%	120	+3.1	.266/.341/.411	.145	.303	14	17	16%	8%	116	+2.8	.261/.340/.414	.153	.299	14	17	17%	8%	110	+1.6
✕Tommy Edman 2023 · MLB	28	53→55	45→50	57→55	49	.260/.315/.394	.133	.296	12	24	16%	7%	100	+1.7	.247/.305/.392	.145	.280	15	23	17%	7%	95	+1.4	.233/.293/.378	.145	.259	16	20	17%	7%	85	+0.4
●Shane Victorino 2009 · MLB	28	58→60	47→55	60	52	.283/.342/.428	.145	.303	13	28	12%	7%	121	+3.2	.277/.342/.437	.160	.298	13	26	11%	8%	122	+3.3	.271/.342/.441	.170	.288	14	24	11%	9%	118	+3.2
✕Jackie Bradley Jr. 2019 · MLB	29	47→56	52→55	54→50	50	.240/.320/.415	.176	.289	19	13	24%	9%	108	+2.3	.225/.308/.389	.164	.284	18	12	26%	9%	98	+1.6	.209/.294/.360	.151	.268	17	10	28%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Andrew Stevenson 2023 · MLB	29	51→58	47→50	58→60	41	.251/.302/.398	.147	.324	14	23	26%	6%	96	+1.5	.252/.305/.393	.141	.326	14	35	26%	6%	96	+1.5	.263/.318/.400	.137	.340	13	48	25%	6%	98	+0.9
✕Carlos Gómez 2016 · MLB	30	53→57	53→60	56→65	46	.267/.330/.448	.181	.320	19	28	22%	7%	121	+3.2	.236/.309/.399	.163	.301	18	20	27%	7%	100	+1.7	.219/.303/.388	.169	.278	20	19	27%	6%	91	+0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)