Jarren Duran

LF Boston Red Sox

Age 30 L/R 6'0" / 205 lbs MLB HR -5%K -4% Svc 4.901 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	27	MLBBOS	735	.285/.343/.492	21	34	128	5.5
2025	28	MLBBOS	696	.256/.334/.442	16	24	113	1.9
2026	29	MLBBOS	608	.207/.269/.361	20	21	70	-1.3
2027PROJ	30	MLBBOS	555	.246/.309/.417	17	31	100	1.3
2028PROJ	31	MLBBOS	614	.241/.303/.406	18	26	96	0.7
2029PROJ	32	MLBBOS	614	.234/.295/.391	17	19	89	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.901First FA2029Options3

2027Arb-2$4M2028Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed90

Bat Spd81

Avg EV74

xwOBA63

Barrel%58

Form.245/.310/.401 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .241/.302/.413

CompsWill Venable (age 30) · Leonys Martin (age 30) · Alexis Gomez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 75100vR 109

AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .309 / .417

PA555

HR17

SB31

K%26

BB%7

BABIP307

ISO172

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

500.252

POWER50

Barrel%

589.4

Avg EV

7490.8

Bat Spd

8174.6

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%23%▲▲21% over 82 PA (60d) · proj 26%

BB%8%▲9% over 82 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.157▼.123 over 73 AB (60d) · proj .172

HR/BB4.4%·3.6% over 56 BBE (60d) · proj 4.8%

BABIP.294▼.222 over 54 BIP (60d) · proj .299

SLASH.245/.310/.401·proj .241/.302/.413

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1524 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

461

1063

—

wRC+

136

▶▶R

wOBA

286

369

▶▶R

ISO

109

226

▶▶R

BABIP

310

341

▶R

25.4%

22.2%

▶R

BB%

6.3%

8.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.901 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.3	$10M	+$6M
2028	Arb-3	$5M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$13M	+$6M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$5.1M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2028	CLUB OPT	$8.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$5.1M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	21	A	Greenville Drive	—	134	128	47	9	1	1	5	22	1	12	6	367	396	477	872	109	438	16	4	388	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	352	320	80	11	5	1	23	84	5	28	8	250	310	325	635	75	335	24	7	287	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	226	199	77	13	3	4	23	44	3	18	5	387	458	543	1.000	156	480	19	10	441	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	101	90	24	5	2	1	10	20	0	7	2	267	340	400	740	133	329	20	10	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	100	80	23	3	1	1	17	21	2	9	0	287	424	388	812	100	373	21	17	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	112	107	23	3	2	2	4	40	0	2	1	215	243	336	580	121	318	36	4	255	57	-6	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.2
2021	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	283	244	63	11	2	16	30	66	8	16	3	258	358	516	875	258	288	23	11	382	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	223	204	45	14	3	3	14	63	4	7	1	221	284	363	647	142	302	28	6	289	77	-6	+1	-3	+2	+5	-0.2
2022	25	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	307	279	79	16	6	10	26	73	2	18	3	283	349	491	840	208	352	24	8	369	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	362	332	98	34	2	8	24	90	3	24	2	295	347	482	829	187	381	25	7	363	121	+9	+4	-3	+1	+8	2.0
2023	26	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	51	41	8	2	1	2	10	11	0	2	0	195	353	439	792	244	214	22	20	354	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	735	671	191	48	14	21	54	160	6	34	7	285	343	492	835	207	345	22	7	364	128	+24	+4	+8	+3	+16	5.5
2025	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	696	620	159	41	13	16	60	169	12	24	6	256	334	442	776	185	326	24	9	342	113	+11	+2	-2	-7	+15	1.9
2026	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	608	551	114	15	5	20	41	165	6	21	4	207	269	361	630	154	252	27	7	278	70	-21	+3	-0	-7	+13	-1.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2736	2485	630	155	39	70	197	687	31	112	21	254	316	432	748	178	321	25	7	329	109	+28	+14	-1	-7	+59	9.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	134	130	39	7	1	1	3	29	1	12	6	300	321	392	713	92	381	22	2	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	352	328	71	8	4	1	15	103	5	28	8	216	261	274	536	58	305	29	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	226	207	61	9	2	3	15	65	3	18	5	295	351	401	752	106	410	29	7	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	112	107	23	3	2	2	4	40	0	2	1	215	243	336	580	121	318	36	4	253	57	-6	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.2
2021	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	283	253	52	9	2	9	21	78	8	16	3	206	287	364	651	158	256	28	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	223	204	43	12	3	3	14	63	4	7	1	211	275	343	618	132	302	28	6	281	77	-6	+1	-3	+2	+5	-0.2
2022	25	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	307	287	70	12	6	7	18	87	2	18	3	244	293	401	694	157	325	28	6	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	362	334	93	30	2	8	23	90	3	24	2	278	331	452	783	174	381	25	6	348	121	+9	+4	-3	+1	+8	2.0
2023	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	51	44	6	1	1	1	7	13	0	2	0	136	255	273	528	136	180	25	14	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	735	672	186	43	15	22	53	160	6	34	7	277	335	484	819	207	345	22	7	357	128	+24	+4	+8	+3	+16	5.5
2025	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	696	621	154	36	14	16	59	169	12	24	6	248	325	428	753	180	326	24	8	335	113	+11	+2	-2	-7	+15	1.9
2026	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	608	554	113	13	6	21	38	165	6	21	4	204	263	363	625	159	252	27	6	272	70	-21	+3	-0	-7	+13	-1.3
2018	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	134	130	39	7	1	1	3	29	1	12	6	300	321	392	713	92	380	22	2	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A RAW	Greenville Drive	—	134	128	47	9	1	1	5	22	1	12	6	367	396	477	872	109	438	16	4	388	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	679	630	155	20	7	5	35	198	8	53	15	246	294	324	618	78	349	29	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	679	609	181	29	10	6	56	148	8	53	15	297	364	407	771	110	382	22	8	344	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	INTL MLE	Puerto Rico	—	100	80	23	3	1	1	17	21	2	9	0	287	424	388	812	100	373	21	17	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	INTL RAW	Puerto Rico	—	100	80	23	3	1	1	17	21	2	9	0	287	424	388	812	100	373	21	17	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	395	360	75	12	4	11	25	118	8	18	4	208	275	356	630	147	275	30	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	395	351	86	14	4	18	34	106	8	18	4	245	326	462	787	217	297	27	9	346	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	491	113	24	9	10	32	150	6	25	4	230	285	377	662	147	310	28	6	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	530	483	124	30	9	13	40	136	6	25	4	257	321	437	758	180	331	26	8	335	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	413	378	101	32	3	10	30	103	3	26	2	267	326	447	773	180	341	25	7	338	115	+7	+4	-3	+1	+9	2.0
2023	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	413	373	106	36	3	10	34	101	3	26	2	284	348	477	825	193	364	24	8	362	115	+7	+4	-3	+1	+9	2.0
2024	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	735	672	186	43	15	22	53	160	6	34	7	277	335	484	819	207	333	22	7	357	128	+24	+4	+8	+3	+16	5.5
2024	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	735	671	191	48	14	21	54	160	6	34	7	285	343	492	835	207	345	22	7	364	128	+24	+4	+8	+3	+16	5.5
2025	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	696	621	154	36	14	16	59	169	12	24	6	248	325	428	753	180	314	24	8	335	113	+11	+2	-2	-7	+15	1.9
2025	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	696	620	159	41	13	16	60	169	12	24	6	256	334	442	776	185	326	24	9	342	113	+11	+2	-2	-7	+15	1.9
2026	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	608	554	113	13	6	21	38	165	6	21	4	204	263	363	625	159	245	27	6	272	70	-21	+3	-0	-7	+13	-1.3
2026	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	608	551	114	15	5	20	41	165	6	21	4	207	269	361	630	154	252	27	7	278	70	-21	+3	-0	-7	+13	-1.3
2018	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	134	129	39	7	1	1	3	29	1	12	6	302	321	395	716	93	381	22	2	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	679	631	155	20	7	5	35	198	8	53	15	246	294	323	618	78	346	29	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	395	359	75	12	4	11	25	118	8	18	4	209	275	357	631	148	274	30	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	487	113	24	9	10	32	150	6	25	4	232	285	380	665	148	315	28	6	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	413	377	101	32	3	10	30	103	3	26	2	268	326	448	774	180	356	25	7	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	735	670	186	43	15	22	53	160	6	34	7	278	335	485	820	207	345	22	7	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	696	620	154	36	14	16	59	169	12	24	6	248	325	429	754	181	326	24	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	608	559	113	13	6	21	38	165	6	21	4	202	263	360	622	157	252	27	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	735	670	186	43	15	22	53	160	6	34	7	278	335	485	820	207	345	22	7	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	696	620	154	36	14	16	59	169	12	24	6	248	325	429	754	181	326	24	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	608	559	113	13	6	21	38	165	6	21	4	202	263	360	622	157	252	27	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	611	556	134	21	8	19	43	156	7	34	6	242	305	413	718	172	299	26	7	316	100	+0	+4	+3	-7	+13	1.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	555	505	125	22	7	17	39	142	6	31	6	246	309	417	726	171	307	26	7	320	100	+0	+4	+3	-6	+12	1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	614	559	133	21	8	19	43	159	7	26	5	236	299	402	700	165	294	26	7	309	96	-3	+3	+0	-7	+13	0.7
2029	32	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	614	560	129	19	8	18	42	162	7	19	4	230	291	387	679	157	288	26	7	300	89	-8	+2	-0	-7	+13	0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	614	559	134	23	7	18	43	159	7	26	5	241	303	406	709	165	302	26	7	313	96	-3	+3	+0	-7	+13	0.7
2029	32	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	614	560	131	22	7	17	42	162	7	19	4	234	295	391	686	157	296	26	7	304	89	-8	+2	-0	-7	+13	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3964	3604	895	200	53	105	282	1008	45	157	30	248	311	421	731	172	314	25	7	322	91	+17	+19	-1	-20	+86	10.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	147	33	9	17	46	165	7	26	5	249	310	421	731	173	315	25	7	322	91	+3	+3	-0	-3	+14	1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6073	5540	1342	249	83	151	416	1576	72	298	63	242	304	399	703	157	310	26	7	303	91	+17	+23	+1	-26	+98	11.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	144	27	9	16	45	169	8	32	7	243	305	400	705	157	311	26	7	303	91	+2	+3	+0	-4	+14	1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 51 PAwOBA .345 → .268 (−77)K% 21.6% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.57%	÷1.023	×1.200	—	—	25.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.61%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×1.003	13.77%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.996	×0.930	—	×1.003	9.36%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.309	×0.830	—	×1.003	4.24%
Triples /BIP	3.33%	÷0.905	×0.970	—	×1.003	3.58%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.008	×0.700	—	×1.003	4.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .345 → .268; ISO .244 → .192; BABIP .214 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 307 PAwOBA .358 → .302 (−56)K% 23.8% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.78%	÷1.013	×1.200	—	—	28.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.14%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.79%
HBP% /PA	0.65%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.62%
Singles /BIP	22.82%	÷1.010	×0.930	×1.050	×1.018	22.45%
Doubles /BIP	7.77%	÷1.179	×0.830	×1.050	×1.018	5.85%
Triples /BIP	2.91%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.018	3.02%
Home runs /BIP	4.85%	÷0.939	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.68%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 136, 3B 100, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .358 → .302; ISO .208 → .165; BABIP .352 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 283 PAwOBA .373 → .284 (−89)K% 23.3% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.32%	÷1.021	×1.200	—	—	27.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.60%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×1.033	7.50%
HBP% /PA	2.83%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	2.74%
Singles /BIP	19.10%	÷0.974	×0.930	×0.969	×1.033	18.26%
Doubles /BIP	6.18%	÷0.992	×0.830	×0.969	×1.033	5.18%
Triples /BIP	1.12%	÷1.023	×0.920	×0.969	×1.033	1.01%
Home runs /BIP	8.99%	÷1.318	×0.700	—	×1.033	4.93%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 105, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .373 → .284; ISO .258 → .159; BABIP .288 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 352 PAwOBA .278 → .236 (−42)K% 23.9% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.86%	÷0.991	×1.220	—	—	29.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.97%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×1.027	4.30%
HBP% /PA	1.42%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	1.24%
Singles /BIP	26.69%	÷1.016	×0.970	×0.967	×1.027	25.32%
Doubles /BIP	4.66%	÷1.158	×0.860	×0.967	×1.027	3.44%
Triples /BIP	2.12%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.967	×1.027	1.74%
Home runs /BIP	0.42%	÷0.953	×0.780	—	×1.027	0.36%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 132, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .278 → .236; ISO .075 → .057; BABIP .335 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Salem Red Sox · 226 PAwOBA .432 → .329 (−103)K% 19.5% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.47%	÷0.958	×1.420	—	—	28.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.18%	÷0.968	×0.630	—	×0.998	6.61%
HBP% /PA	1.33%	—	×0.860	—	×0.998	1.14%
Singles /BIP	36.77%	÷1.003	×0.940	×0.950	×0.998	32.68%
Doubles /BIP	8.39%	÷1.070	×0.830	×0.950	×0.998	6.17%
Triples /BIP	1.94%	÷0.972	×0.800	×0.950	×0.998	1.51%
Home runs /BIP	2.58%	÷1.080	×0.900	—	×0.998	2.15%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 101, 2B 114, 3B 94, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .432 → .329; ISO .156 → .113; BABIP .480 → .410. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AGreenville Drive · 134 PAwOBA .378 → .309 (−69)K% 16.4% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.42%	÷1.024	×1.340	—	—	21.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.73%	÷1.008	×0.660	—	—	2.44%
HBP% /PA	0.75%	—	×0.770	—	—	0.57%
Singles /BIP	33.96%	÷1.040	×0.920	×0.989	—	29.70%
Doubles /BIP	8.49%	÷0.961	×0.820	×0.989	—	7.17%
Triples /BIP	0.94%	÷0.991	×0.940	×0.989	—	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	0.94%	÷0.923	×0.820	—	—	0.84%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 98, K 105, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .378 → .309; ISO .109 → .090; BABIP .438 → .381. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	5.2	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
/162	664	20	24	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
#2Derek Bell'91-'01 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,068 PA	7.6	5,068	134	170	264*	322*	414*	-34	-29	11.8	13.5
/162	664	18	22	-4.4	-3.8	1.5	pk7: 15
#3Mike Davis'80-'89 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,298 PA	5.0	3,298	91	134	256*	313*	432*	-31	+13	11.4	12.4
/162	664	18	27	-6.2	+2.5	2.3	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.8	4,519	124	188	248	306	421	-48	-6	11.1	11.6
/162	664	18	28	-7.1	-0.8	1.6	pk7: 12
#4Juan Encarnacion'97-'07 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,095 PA	7.7	5,095	156	127	258*	304*	426*	-35	-21	9.1	9.1
/162	664	20	17	-4.6	-2.7	1.2	pk7: 9
#5Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#6Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jarren Duran (OGILVIE)	30	55	50	60	50	239/302/410	170	299	17	31	26%	7%	100	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Will Venable 2013 · MLB	30	51→55	48→55	63→60	48	250/314/410	159	308	13	30	23%	8%	103	+1.6	250/304/406	156	306	16	22	23%	7%	99	+1.3	244/299/388	144	301	16	22	24%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Leonys Martin 2018 · MLB	30	47→56	46→50	56→60	42	235/282/366	131	298	14	27	26%	6%	82	-0.0	233/295/385	152	293	18	16	26%	7%	92	+0.7	229/300/387	159	280	19	11	25%	8%	95	+0.5
✕Alexis Gomez 2011 · AAA	32	55→59	49→50	60→55	48	273/321/418	145	312	17	34	18%	7%	108	+1.9	253/302/386	133	297	13	21	19%	6%	93	+0.8	248/288/374	126	286	7	13	16%	4%	84	+0.0
✕Roger Bernadina 2013 · MLB	29	51→61	46→45	56→60	48	253/316/381	128	304	14	28	21%	8%	98	+1.2	214/289/332	118	290	11	18	28%	8%	77	-0.3	219/285/332	113	308	11	20	31%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Dylan Moore 2023 · MLB	30	43→49	51→55	57→65	52	219/326/387	168	288	18	35	29%	11%	105	+1.7	214/315/385	171	288	18	32	30%	11%	100	+1.3	199/300/371	172	267	19	37	31%	10%	91	+0.3
✕Carl Crawford 2012 · MLB	30	55→64	49→55	62→65	46	273/318/434	161	310	15	32	17%	6%	110	+2.1	271/313/416	145	312	12	22	17%	5%	105	+1.7	288/329/421	132	331	10	27	16%	5%	113	+1.3
✕Cedric Mullins 2024 · MLB	29	48→55	51→55	56→60	50	246/310/412	167	281	18	25	20%	8%	103	+1.6	225/298/388	163	259	20	27	21%	9%	93	+0.8	214/293/373	160	242	20	30	21%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Drew Stubbs 2015 · MLB	30	50→57	48→50	57→60	44	245/305/392	146	336	16	24	30%	8%	97	+1.1	222/297/354	132	325	14	22	33%	9%	85	+0.2	197/281/304	107	299	11	23	35%	10%	66	-0.5
✕Brian Bogusevic 2014 · MLB	30	49→54	46→45	56→55	49	243/315/377	134	303	13	21	24%	9%	97	+1.1	245/301/369	124	307	13	17	23%	7%	90	+0.6	244/291/365	121	302	13	15	23%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Sam Haggerty 2023 · MLB	29	49→43	48→50	62→65	45	241/307/390	148	306	14	32	25%	7%	97	+1.1	251/323/380	129	314	11	35	22%	8%	100	+1.3	242/316/354	112	309	7	38	22%	9%	90	+0.3
✕Jon Berti 2020 · MLB	30	53→62	46→45	60	48	259/328/392	133	322	12	32	23%	8%	105	+1.7	247/336/366	119	318	11	30	23%	11%	102	+1.5	268/335/372	103	335	9	39	21%	8%	103	+0.8
✕George Lombard 2007 · MLB	31	44→43	50	59→55	43	222/292/377	155	300	17	25	31%	8%	88	+0.5	222/287/356	134	315	14	23	32%	7%	82	-0.0	210/274/313	104	298	12	32	32%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Jeremy Hazelbaker 2018 · MLB	30	47→53	51→55	60	42	235/291/402	167	325	17	19	32%	7%	93	+0.8	202/264/349	147	316	16	17	39%	7%	72	-0.7	157/224/297	141	249	16	20	42%	7%	42	-1.7
✕Dewayne Wise 2009 · MLB	31	48→40	52→60	59→55	42	244/292/424	180	286	19	25	22%	5%	99	+1.3	237/278/395	158	286	14	20	22%	4%	87	+0.4	238/273/396	158	291	16	27	24%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Reggie Taylor 2008 · MLB	31	51→56	48→50	53→55	48	255/310/397	141	292	16	25	18%	7%	99	+1.3	234/279/364	130	278	14	17	21%	6%	80	-0.1	220/256/340	120	263	12	12	21%	4%	65	-0.5
✕Jonathan Villar 2020 · MLB	29	53→60	49→50	58→65	47	262/325/412	150	334	17	32	26%	8%	108	+1.9	249/312/391	142	320	16	26	26%	8%	99	+1.2	237/298/368	131	306	15	25	26%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Óscar Mercado 2024 · MLB	29	46→55	48→50	57→60	45	232/290/378	146	276	15	27	22%	6%	88	+0.4	206/275/331	125	239	14	29	20%	7%	72	-0.7	190/267/306	115	213	14	34	18%	8%	62	-1.0
✕Dairon Blanco 2023 · AAA	30	48→50	46→45	62→70	41	237/290/363	127	308	14	42	27%	6%	84	+0.2	249/310/375	126	320	13	71	25%	6%	95	+0.9	246/312/366	120	313	12	95	24%	6%	91	+0.3
✕Eli White 2024 · MLB	30	43→53	47→50	58→60	46	214/292/345	131	302	16	27	33%	9%	81	-0.1	236/294/374	138	309	16	26	28%	7%	88	+0.5	239/292/380	141	304	16	27	26%	6%	88	+0.2
✕Chris Dickerson 2013 · MLB	31	51→56	45→50	60	47	243/314/376	133	334	11	29	29%	9%	96	+1.0	235/302/362	127	324	12	20	29%	8%	88	+0.5	231/298/344	113	320	11	20	29%	8%	82	+0.0

Jarren Duran

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps