Jarren Duran — OGILVIE

Jarren DuranLF Boston Red Sox

Age 29 L/R 6'0" / 205 lbs MLB H +3% Svc 3.901 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION376 act + 320 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 75128vR 149

AVG/OBP/SLG.253 / .319 / .446

PA320

HR10

SB15

K%27

BB%8

BABIP323

ISO194

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

699.0%

xwOBA

640.325

POWER50

Barrel%

619.9

Avg EV

7690.9

Bat Spd

8174.6

EYE50

Chase%

7926.1%

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.2

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1524 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

461

1063

—

wRC+

141

▶▶R

wOBA

286

369

▶▶R

ISO

109

226

▶▶R

BABIP

310

341

▶R

25.4%

22.2%

▶R

BB%

6.3%

8.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.901 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$3M	+0.4	$1M	-$2M
2027	Arb-2	$10M	+3.5	$26M	+$17M
2028	Arb-3	$14M	+3.1	$21M	+$10M
Totals		$27M		$49M	+$25M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$13.7M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2028	CLUB OPT	$8.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2029	CLUB OPT	$13.7M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	Greenville Drive	—	134	130	39	8	1	1	3	28	1	12	6	300	321	400	721	100	376	21	2	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A	Greenville Drive	—	134	128	47	9	1	1	5	22	1	12	6	367	396	477	872	109	438	16	4	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	3 teams	—	679	630	142	17	6	4	35	210	8	53	15	225	275	290	565	65	329	31	5	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	3 teams	—	679	609	181	29	10	6	56	148	8	53	15	297	364	407	771	110	382	22	8	344	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	100	80	23	3	1	1	17	21	2	9	0	287	424	388	812	100	373	21	17	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	100	80	23	3	1	1	17	21	2	9	0	287	424	388	812	100	373	21	17	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	2 teams	—	395	361	74	12	4	10	24	116	8	18	4	205	270	343	613	139	270	29	6	271	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	2 teams	—	395	351	86	14	4	18	34	106	8	18	4	245	326	462	787	217	297	27	9	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	2 teams	—	530	491	112	23	9	12	32	148	6	25	4	228	284	385	668	157	301	28	6	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	2 teams	—	530	483	124	30	9	13	40	136	6	25	4	257	321	437	758	180	331	26	8	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	2 teams	—	413	377	100	31	4	10	31	103	3	26	2	265	326	448	774	183	338	25	8	333	113	+6	+4	-3	+1	+12	2.2
2023	26	MLB	2 teams	—	413	373	106	36	3	10	34	101	3	26	2	284	348	477	825	193	364	24	8	362	135	+16	+4	-3	+1	+12	3.2
2024	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	735	671	185	43	16	21	54	160	6	34	7	276	335	481	817	206	333	22	7	351	127	+23	+4	+8	+3	+21	5.9
2024	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	735	671	191	48	14	21	54	160	6	34	7	285	343	492	835	207	345	22	7	364	137	+31	+4	+8	+3	+21	6.7
2025	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	696	620	154	37	15	16	60	169	12	24	6	248	327	434	760	185	315	24	9	331	111	+9	+2	-2	-7	+20	2.2
2025	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	696	620	159	41	13	16	60	169	12	24	6	256	334	442	776	185	326	24	9	342	120	+16	+2	-2	-7	+20	2.9
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	BOS	—	376	340	66	10	2	13	27	113	4	14	1	194	261	350	611	156	243	30	7	268	64	-16	+2	-0	-4	+11	-0.7
YTD	29	MLB	BOS	—	376	340	66	10	2	13	27	113	4	14	1	194	261	350	611	156	243	30	7	271	66	-15	+2	-0	-4	+11	-0.6
ROS	29	MLB	BOS	100%	320	289	73	18	4	10	24	86	4	15	2	253	319	446	765	194	326	27	8	336	115	+6	+2	+2	-3	+9	1.6
ROS	29	MLB	BOS	100%	320	289	76	20	4	10	24	86	4	15	2	263	328	464	792	201	333	27	8	332	112	+5	+2	+2	-3	+9	1.5
FULL	29	MLB	BOS	—	696	629	142	30	6	23	51	199	8	29	3	226	292	402	694	176	288	29	7	298	86	-11	+5	+2	-7	+20	0.8
TOT	29	MLB	BOS	—	696	629	139	28	6	23	51	199	8	29	3	221	288	394	682	173	281	29	7	300	87	-10	+5	+2	-7	+20	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	BOS	100%	660	597	154	39	9	19	50	180	8	28	4	258	324	449	773	191	338	27	8	342	120	+15	+4	+2	-7	+19	3.3
2028	31	MLB	BOS	100%	660	597	153	39	9	19	50	182	8	25	3	256	322	447	769	191	334	28	8	337	116	+12	+4	+1	-7	+19	2.9
2029	32	MLB	BOS	100%	660	598	150	38	9	18	50	184	7	20	3	251	316	435	751	184	329	28	8	330	111	+8	+3	+0	-7	+19	2.3
2030	33	MLB	BOS	100%	584	529	129	32	8	15	44	166	6	14	2	244	309	420	729	176	322	28	8	321	104	+3	+2	-1	-6	+17	1.5
2031	34	MLB	BOS	100%	535	484	113	27	7	13	40	156	6	9	1	233	300	399	699	165	313	29	7	310	96	-3	+1	-2	-6	+15	0.7
2027	30	MLB	BOS	100%	660	597	159	42	9	19	50	180	8	28	4	266	331	462	794	196	345	27	8	338	117	+13	+4	+2	-7	+19	3.1
2028	31	MLB	BOS	100%	660	597	157	41	9	19	50	182	8	25	3	263	328	457	786	194	342	28	8	334	114	+10	+4	+1	-7	+19	2.7
2029	32	MLB	BOS	100%	660	598	152	40	8	18	50	184	7	20	3	254	319	438	757	184	336	28	8	327	108	+6	+3	+0	-7	+19	2.1
2030	33	MLB	BOS	100%	584	529	130	33	7	15	44	166	6	14	2	246	311	420	731	174	329	28	8	318	101	+1	+2	-1	-6	+17	1.3
2031	34	MLB	BOS	100%	535	484	116	29	7	13	40	156	6	9	1	240	306	409	715	169	319	29	7	306	93	-4	+1	-2	-6	+15	0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5547	5028	1306	345	78	144	414	1476	64	202	32	260	324	445	769	186	338	27	7	333	113	+80	+28	+2	-37	+157	23.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	153	40	9	17	49	173	7	24	4	260	324	445	769	185	338	27	8	333	113	+9	+3	+0	-4	+18	2.7
Career	—			—	7101	6454	1601	367	102	169	514	1909	85	312	59	248	312	415	727	167	325	27	7	314	98	-12	+39	+2	-46	+201	18.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	146	34	9	15	47	175	8	29	5	247	311	411	722	164	324	27	7	314	98	-1	+4	+0	-4	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	Greenville Drive	—	134	128	47	9	1	1	5	22	1	12	6	367	396	477	872	109	438	16	4	388	155	+8	+0	—	—	+4	1.2
2019	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	352	320	80	11	5	1	23	84	5	28	8	250	310	325	635	75	335	24	7	287	78	-9	+2	—	—	+10	0.4
2019	22	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	226	199	77	13	3	4	23	44	3	18	5	387	458	543	1.000	156	480	19	10	441	196	+24	+2	—	—	+6	3.3
2019	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	101	90	24	5	2	1	10	20	0	7	2	267	340	400	740	133	329	20	10	329	110	+1	+1	—	—	+3	0.5
2020	23	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	100	80	23	3	1	1	17	21	2	9	0	287	424	388	812	100	373	21	17	372	143	+5	+2	—	—	+3	1.0
2021	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	112	107	23	3	2	2	4	40	0	2	1	215	243	336	580	121	318	36	4	255	53	-6	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.2
2021	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	283	244	63	11	2	16	30	66	8	16	3	258	358	516	875	258	288	23	11	382	151	+16	+2	—	—	+8	2.7
2022	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	223	204	45	14	3	3	14	63	4	7	1	221	284	363	647	142	302	28	6	289	79	-5	+1	-3	+2	+6	0.1
2022	25	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	307	279	79	16	6	10	26	73	2	18	3	283	349	491	840	208	352	24	8	369	140	+14	+2	—	—	+9	2.6
2023	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	362	332	98	34	2	8	24	90	3	24	2	295	347	482	829	187	381	25	7	363	136	+15	+4	-3	+1	+10	2.8
2023	26	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	51	41	8	2	1	2	10	11	0	2	0	195	353	439	792	244	214	22	20	354	129	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	735	671	191	48	14	21	54	160	6	34	7	285	343	492	835	207	345	22	7	364	137	+31	+4	+8	+3	+21	6.7
2025	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	696	620	159	41	13	16	60	169	12	24	6	256	334	442	776	185	326	24	9	342	120	+16	+2	-2	-7	+20	2.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2128	1934	516	140	34	50	156	522	25	91	17	267	329	452	781	185	340	25	7	343	121	+50	+11	-1	-0	+60	12.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alex Gordonlast yr '20 AS×3GG×7SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,250 PA	14	7,250	190	113	257	338	410	-58	+22	27.4	26.4
	/162	664	17	10	257	338	410	-5.3	+2.0	2.5	pk7: 25
#2Alex Rioslast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,929 PA	12	6,929	169	253	277	321	434	-57	+11	25.0	25.4
#2Alex Rioslast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,929 PA	/162	664	16	24	277	321	434	-5.5	+1.0	2.4	pk7: 26
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	6,299	167	242	254	316	438	-67	-8	20.6	20.3
	/162	664	18	25	254	316	438	-7.1	-0.8	2.2	pk7: 20
#3José Cruz Jr.last yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,179 PA	9	4,179	153	81	247	336	445	-35	-7	17.4	17.2
	/162	664	24	13	247	336	445	-5.6	-1.1	2.8	pk7: 17
#4Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	8	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
	/162	664	20	24	260	321	441	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
#5Raul Mondesilast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,604 PA	6	2,604	108	89	251	326	456	-20	-6	10.8	10.8
	/162	664	28	23	251	326	456	-5.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 11
#6Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jarren Duran (OGILVIE)	29	55	50	60	50	221/288/394	173	281	23	29	29%	7%	87	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Will Venable 2012 · MLB	29	48→55	51→60	62→60	47	242/309/408	166	305	18	28	26%	8%	102	+1.8	257/317/432	175	313	18	26	23%	8%	111	+2.5	257/316/429	171	311	18	24	22%	7%	106	+1.7
✕Kevin Kiermaier 2019 · MLB	29	47→55	50→55	54→55	47	236/303/398	162	285	17	19	23%	8%	97	+1.5	231/295/387	156	286	15	19	24%	7%	91	+1.1	248/311/389	141	317	12	17	24%	7%	94	+0.8
✕Leonys Martin 2017 · MLB	29	50→56	45→50	54→60	46	245/300/366	121	302	14	25	24%	7%	87	+0.8	240/296/388	148	304	16	21	25%	7%	92	+1.2	234/291/384	150	296	17	21	26%	6%	85	+0.5
✕Cedric Mullins 2023 · MLB	28	52→54	51→55	56→60	50	260/324/425	165	297	18	27	19%	8%	112	+2.6	231/302/393	162	268	18	27	21%	9%	95	+1.4	217/294/381	164	251	19	30	22%	9%	87	+0.7
●Carl Crawford 2012 · MLB	30	55→65	49→55	62→65	47	272/318/433	161	308	15	32	17%	6%	111	+2.5	272/315/418	146	313	12	22	17%	5%	106	+2.2	291/334/427	136	333	11	27	16%	5%	113	+1.6
✕Corey Patterson 2007 · MLB	27	49→54	51→55	60	43	251/294/410	159	294	19	34	22%	5%	96	+1.5	240/277/373	133	275	14	32	18%	4%	79	+0.3	236/273/356	120	296	11	28	23%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Roger Bernadina 2012 · MLB	28	48→58	47→45	56→60	47	241/301/375	133	288	15	27	22%	7%	90	+1.0	231/304/351	120	294	12	22	24%	8%	85	+0.7	217/303/321	104	288	9	21	26%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Jackie Bradley Jr. 2019 · MLB	29	47→54	51→55	55→50	50	236/316/406	170	288	18	13	24%	9%	105	+2.1	222/305/384	162	282	18	12	26%	9%	95	+1.4	206/292/358	152	265	17	10	28%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Carlos González 2015 · MLB	29	46→56	54→60	56→55	48	240/306/425	185	286	22	17	24%	8%	105	+2.1	237/298/415	178	274	22	5	22%	8%	100	+1.7	235/301/402	167	272	20	2	21%	8%	91	+1.1
✕Brian Bogusevic 2014 · MLB	30	50→55	46→50	56→55	50	243/317/373	130	305	13	21	24%	9%	96	+1.5	253/310/384	131	316	14	17	23%	7%	95	+1.4	258/306/388	130	318	14	15	23%	6%	92	+0.8
●Jacoby Ellsbury 2013 · MLB	29	56→66	51→55	54→65	50	279/331/444	164	298	18	27	14%	7%	120	+3.1	272/329/402	130	308	12	35	15%	7%	108	+2.3	268/328/386	118	306	10	38	15%	7%	99	+1.6
●Fred Lewis 2009 · MLB	28	55→60	47→50	59→55	51	263/333/415	152	332	12	20	24%	9%	112	+2.6	259/336/403	144	329	10	17	22%	10%	111	+2.5	256/331/407	150	326	12	20	24%	9%	105	+1.5
✕Sam Haggerty 2023 · MLB	29	50→44	48→50	62→65	46	245/314/399	154	314	14	32	26%	8%	102	+1.8	250/325/382	132	316	11	35	22%	9%	102	+1.8	241/319/357	115	310	7	40	23%	9%	90	+0.4
●Alex Rios 2010 · MLB	29	54→62	50→60	56→55	48	269/319/433	164	299	16	22	16%	6%	112	+2.6	263/308/422	159	286	18	22	15%	6%	105	+2.1	283/321/442	160	319	15	27	16%	5%	111	+2.5
✕Andrew Stevenson 2023 · MLB	29	52→59	47→50	59→60	42	254/305/402	147	325	13	24	25%	6%	98	+1.6	255/308/393	138	329	13	36	25%	6%	97	+1.5	266/320/399	133	345	13	48	25%	6%	98	+1.0
●Brett Gardner 2015 · MLB	31	52→59	47→55	57→65	51	253/325/400	147	307	12	20	21%	9%	106	+2.2	254/336/386	132	304	12	18	19%	10%	107	+2.2	244/328/413	169	275	18	16	18%	10%	109	+2.4
✕Willie Harris 2009 · MLB	31	51→60	47→50	55→60	56	251/334/398	147	289	13	22	18%	10%	109	+2.4	232/337/380	148	271	14	15	19%	12%	107	+2.2	220/337/354	134	264	12	13	20%	13%	96	+0.8
●Franklin Gutierrez 2011 · MLB	28	52→56	46→60	54→55	49	257/315/389	132	306	14	18	21%	8%	99	+1.7	239/287/363	124	292	12	16	22%	6%	81	+0.4	249/310/455	206	315	28	5	29%	7%	113	+1.5
✕Chris Dickerson 2010 · MLB	28	54→55	46→50	58→60	50	254/334/394	140	348	12	25	28%	10%	108	+2.3	249/321/372	123	349	10	28	29%	9%	97	+1.5	241/318/390	149	333	14	22	30%	9%	99	+0.9
●Mike Tauchman 2020 · MLB	29	50→56	50→55	52→55	51	248/317/417	169	297	16	14	22%	9%	107	+2.2	233/317/376	143	303	13	14	25%	10%	97	+1.5	244/350/366	121	305	13	6	22%	13%	107	+1.6