Brandon Valenzuela

Brandon ValenzuelaC Toronto Blue Jays

Age 25 S/R 6'0" / 225 lbs MLB HR +12%BB +4% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.7 · 2028

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .267 / .353

PA320

HR10

K%30

BB%7

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30↗35

PWR

40↗42

SPD

30→30

FLD

50↗57

EYE

46↘45

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$14M	+$7M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Padres	243	213	37	5	1	1	24	85	3	2	1	.174	.267	.221	.487	.047	.277	35	10	.223	29	-20	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.8
2019	18	ROK	AZL Padres 1	183	158	28	3	1	0	21	46	3	0	0	.177	.286	.209	.495	.032	.248	25	11	.231	35	-13	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.5
2021	20	A	2 teams	443	398	97	16	3	7	39	143	2	4	2	.244	.314	.352	.666	.108	.357	32	9	.292	81	-9	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.1
2022	21	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	413	365	63	12	1	9	43	122	3	0	1	.173	.265	.285	.550	.112	.229	30	10	.247	47	-25	-0	+0	+7	+12	-0.6
2023	22	A+	2 teams	264	238	46	10	1	4	22	85	4	2	0	.193	.273	.294	.567	.101	.282	32	8	.251	50	-15	+0	+0	+5	+7	-0.2
2024	23	AA	3 teams	543	494	91	19	0	10	37	166	4	0	3	.184	.247	.283	.530	.099	.249	31	7	.236	39	-38	-1	+0	+10	+15	-1.4
2025	24	AA	2 teams	479	437	86	16	1	15	35	139	2	6	2	.197	.259	.341	.600	.144	.247	29	7	.263	59	-22	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.0
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	MLB	2 teams	49	47	8	0	0	2	2	16	0	0	0	.170	.204	.298	.502	.128	.207	33	4	.217	24	-4	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.0
ROS	25	MLB	TOR	271	249	51	10	1	9	19	82	1	2	1	.205	.264	.361	.625	.157	.259	30	7	.274	68	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
TOT	25	MLB	TOR	320	296	59	10	1	11	21	98	1	2	1	.199	.255	.351	.606	.152	.255	31	7	.265	61	-14	+0	+2	+6	+9	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB	TOR	415	379	79	15	1	14	31	108	2	2	1	.208	.272	.364	.636	.156	.251	26	7	.282	74	-12	+0	+1	+7	+12	0.8
2028	27	MLB	TOR	421	382	80	15	1	14	33	109	3	2	1	.209	.278	.364	.641	.154	.254	26	8	.285	76	-11	+0	+1	+8	+12	0.9
2029	28	MLB	TOR	422	383	81	15	1	14	33	110	3	2	1	.211	.279	.366	.645	.154	.255	26	8	.286	77	-11	+0	-0	+8	+12	0.9
2030	29	MLB	TOR	414	375	79	15	1	13	33	108	3	1	0	.211	.280	.360	.640	.149	.255	26	8	.285	76	-11	+0	-1	+7	+12	0.8
2031	30	MLB	TOR	407	369	77	15	1	13	32	108	3	0	0	.209	.277	.360	.638	.152	.254	27	8	.282	74	-12	+0	-1	+7	+12	0.5
2032	31	MLB	TOR	380	345	70	13	1	11	30	102	2	0	0	.203	.271	.342	.613	.139	.252	27	8	.278	71	-13	+0	-2	+7	+11	0.3
2033	32	MLB	TOR	351	318	64	12	1	10	28	96	2	0	0	.201	.270	.340	.610	.138	.251	27	8	.273	67	-13	+0	-3	+6	+10	0.0
2034	33	MLB	TOR	312	282	56	10	1	9	25	88	2	0	0	.199	.269	.337	.605	.138	.249	28	8	.268	63	-13	+0	-4	+6	+9	-0.2
2035	34	MLB	TOR	263	239	46	9	0	7	21	76	1	0	0	.192	.261	.318	.579	.126	.247	29	8	.261	58	-12	+0	-4	+5	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6224	5624	1131	210	17	160	506	1773	43	23	13	.201	.272	.330	.602	.129	.260	28	8	.268	63	-260	-1	-14	+111	+176	1.3
/ 162G	—			650	587	119	22	2	17	53	185	4	2	1	.203	.273	.334	.607	.131	.262	28	8	.268	63	-27	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Padres	243	198	50	7	2	1	39	59	3	2	1	.253	.383	.323	.707	.071	.348	24	16	.329	110	+3	+0	—	—	+7	1.0
2019	18	ROK	AZL Padres 1	183	145	36	4	1	0	34	32	3	0	0	.248	.401	.290	.691	.041	.316	17	19	.332	112	+3	+0	—	—	+5	0.8
2021	20	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	65	49	12	1	0	1	15	20	0	1	0	.245	.422	.327	.748	.082	.379	31	23	.352	128	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2021	20	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	378	329	101	21	3	6	44	80	2	3	2	.307	.392	.444	.836	.137	.386	21	12	.372	143	+18	-0	—	—	+11	2.9
2022	21	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	413	345	72	14	2	10	63	95	3	0	1	.209	.336	.348	.684	.139	.256	23	15	.314	99	-1	-0	—	—	+12	1.1
2023	22	AA	San Antonio Missions	108	94	17	4	0	1	13	29	1	2	0	.181	.287	.255	.542	.074	.250	27	12	.258	56	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2023	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	156	136	38	10	1	4	17	37	3	0	0	.279	.372	.456	.828	.176	.358	24	11	.370	141	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.2
2024	23	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	90	77	15	3	0	0	11	21	0	0	1	.195	.295	.234	.529	.039	.263	23	12	.249	49	-5	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2024	23	AA	San Antonio Missions	347	307	74	16	0	9	33	80	3	0	2	.241	.321	.381	.702	.140	.293	23	10	.314	98	-1	-1	—	—	+10	0.9
2024	23	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	106	81	21	7	0	1	22	27	1	0	0	.259	.423	.383	.806	.123	.364	25	21	.367	139	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
2025	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	105	92	19	6	0	3	12	32	0	0	0	.207	.298	.370	.668	.163	.276	30	11	.299	87	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2025	24	AA	San Antonio Missions	374	328	75	14	1	12	40	83	2	6	2	.229	.316	.387	.703	.159	.266	22	11	.314	98	-1	+0	—	—	+11	1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brandon Valenzuela (OGILVIE)	25	30→35	40→42	30	45	.201/.262/.347	.146	.250	10	2	28%	7%	68	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Ellis 2021 · AA	25	39→37	48→55	36→40	46	.204/.275/.347	.143	.262	16	3	28%	8%	72	-0.2	.199/.290/.369	.170	.266	19	5	31%	10%	85	+0.7	.182/.281/.358	.176	.233	21	4	31%	10%	76	+0.0
✕Brett Cumberland 2019 · AA	24	38→39	47→50	37→30	40	.191/.284/.322	.131	.293	15	2	37%	7%	72	-0.2	.199/.301/.327	.128	.293	14	3	34%	8%	80	+0.4	.177/.295/.289	.111	.265	13	1	34%	8%	65	-0.3
✕Tristan Gray 2021 · AA	25	38→34	50→55	37→40	44	.200/.265/.353	.153	.252	18	5	28%	7%	70	-0.3	.199/.254/.363	.164	.272	21	4	34%	6%	68	-0.5	.189/.248/.343	.154	.256	19	2	33%	6%	58	-0.9
✕Scott Manea 2022 · AA	26	44→41	47→45	36→30	45	.219/.302/.351	.131	.293	16	4	29%	8%	85	+0.7	.203/.289/.302	.099	.305	9	4	33%	9%	66	-0.6	.162/.260/.231	.068	.260	6	0	36%	10%	34	-1.6
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2023 · AAA	25	43→44	53→55	36→45	37	.230/.262/.398	.168	.272	21	3	25%	3%	80	+0.4	.220/.270/.369	.149	.258	19	4	23%	5%	76	+0.1	.205/.264/.337	.132	.237	18	2	22%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Jett Bandy 2015 · AA	25	43	46→50	39→45	43	.218/.279/.349	.131	.251	14	3	20%	5%	75	-0.0	.224/.283/.359	.135	.266	16	4	22%	5%	79	+0.3	.218/.281/.353	.135	.256	17	4	22%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Michael Papierski 2022 · AAA	26	41	41→40	35→40	49	.200/.292/.296	.096	.277	9	4	29%	10%	67	-0.5	.205/.287/.308	.103	.265	10	3	25%	9%	68	-0.5	.196/.278/.292	.096	.250	10	1	25%	9%	58	-0.6
✕Isan Díaz 2022 · MLB	26	41→40	49→55	38→45	47	.210/.286/.354	.144	.272	17	5	29%	9%	79	+0.3	.212/.287/.388	.176	.283	24	9	32%	9%	89	+0.9	.191/.269/.374	.183	.233	28	8	32%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2008 · AAA	26	41	46→50	39→40	40	.211/.259/.336	.125	.271	15	5	28%	5%	63	-0.9	.217/.272/.336	.119	.272	12	4	24%	6%	68	-0.5	.227/.285/.373	.146	.267	19	2	23%	6%	80	+0.1
✕Griff Erickson 2014 · AA	26	43→50	47→50	39→40	49	.216/.290/.351	.135	.270	14	4	25%	9%	79	+0.3	.214/.280/.340	.126	.271	13	5	25%	8%	72	-0.2	.211/.273/.325	.114	.259	12	2	23%	7%	63	-0.3
✕Seby Zavala 2019 · AAA	25	40→39	48→50	40	37	.209/.256/.343	.134	.287	17	2	33%	5%	63	-0.9	.192/.246/.342	.150	.288	20	3	39%	6%	59	-1.1	.193/.272/.319	.126	.301	14	1	38%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Francisco Peña 2015 · AAA	25	37→43	52→55	39→40	39	.204/.242/.362	.158	.229	21	3	23%	4%	63	-0.9	.212/.247/.354	.142	.241	18	5	20%	4%	62	-0.9	.225/.256/.375	.150	.260	20	3	22%	4%	66	-0.2
✕Taylor Gushue 2019 · AA	25	35	45→50	43→30	40	.186/.241/.303	.118	.249	14	2	31%	6%	46	-2.0	.211/.260/.343	.132	.291	15	3	32%	6%	64	-0.8	.202/.263/.338	.136	.278	16	0	32%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Caleb Joseph 2011 · AA	25	44→50	45→50	37→40	42	.222/.265/.341	.119	.262	13	4	21%	5%	66	-0.6	.229/.276/.347	.118	.272	13	4	20%	6%	72	-0.2	.233/.277/.380	.147	.275	17	1	22%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Matt Dominguez 2015 · MLB	25	45→47	47→50	37→30	44	.226/.269/.351	.125	.251	16	1	18%	5%	70	-0.3	.220/.258/.336	.116	.250	14	2	19%	4%	62	-0.9	.218/.251/.329	.111	.246	14	1	18%	3%	54	-1.2
✕Jack Murphy 2013 · AA	25	39	46→45	42→40	44	.200/.266/.326	.126	.267	14	3	30%	8%	63	-0.9	.200/.257/.310	.110	.259	11	3	26%	7%	54	-1.4	.193/.262/.271	.078	.256	8	0	26%	8%	43	-0.9
✕Tyler Ogle 2016 · A	25	43→44	49→50	37→30	52	.219/.302/.365	.146	.262	17	3	24%	10%	89	+0.9	.213/.280/.353	.140	.273	16	4	27%	7%	76	+0.1	.174/.242/.295	.122	.219	13	0	27%	6%	44	-0.5
✕Alex Isola 2023 · AA	25	41→43	51→50	43→40	47	.218/.287/.369	.151	.269	20	3	27%	9%	83	+0.6	.214/.279/.346	.132	.271	16	6	26%	8%	74	-0.1	.201/.267/.323	.122	.252	15	5	26%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Domingo Leyba 2022 · MLB	26	43→51	50	41→45	43	.225/.268/.379	.153	.255	18	4	20%	5%	77	+0.1	.228/.291/.362	.134	.262	16	8	19%	8%	82	+0.5	.228/.299/.349	.121	.262	14	8	19%	9%	82	+0.3
✕Matt Wallach 2011 · AA	25	42	46→45	42→40	43	.214/.265/.342	.127	.258	13	3	23%	6%	66	-0.6	.212/.284/.314	.102	.259	10	5	22%	7%	67	-0.5	.191/.276/.262	.071	.245	8	3	24%	8%	51	-0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)