Brandon Valenzuela
C Toronto Blue Jays| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 543 | .237/.336/.357 | 10 | 0 | 67 | — | .189/.253/.279 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 479 | .224/.312/.383 | 15 | 6 | 59 | — | .190/.253/.314 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBTOR | 271 | .222/.309/.372 | 9 | 2 | 93 | 1.1 | |
| 2027PROJ | 26 | MLBTOR | 227 | .227/.304/.392 | 8 | 2 | 95 | 1.0 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 27 | MLBTOR | 237 | .226/.303/.390 | 8 | 2 | 94 | 1.0 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 28 | MLBTOR | 254 | .224/.301/.385 | 9 | 1 | 93 | 0.9 |
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | — | 243 | 198 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 39 | 59 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 253 | 383 | 323 | 707 | 71 | 348 | 24 | 16 | 329 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | — | 183 | 145 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 401 | 290 | 691 | 41 | 316 | 17 | 19 | 332 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 65 | 49 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 422 | 327 | 748 | 82 | 379 | 31 | 23 | 352 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 378 | 329 | 101 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 44 | 80 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 307 | 392 | 444 | 836 | 137 | 386 | 21 | 12 | 372 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 413 | 345 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 63 | 95 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 209 | 336 | 348 | 684 | 139 | 256 | 23 | 15 | 314 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 108 | 94 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 181 | 287 | 255 | 542 | 74 | 250 | 27 | 12 | 258 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 156 | 136 | 38 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 279 | 372 | 456 | 828 | 176 | 358 | 24 | 11 | 370 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 90 | 77 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 195 | 295 | 234 | 529 | 39 | 263 | 23 | 12 | 249 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 347 | 307 | 74 | 16 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 80 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 241 | 321 | 381 | 702 | 140 | 293 | 23 | 10 | 314 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 106 | 81 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 423 | 383 | 806 | 123 | 364 | 25 | 21 | 367 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 105 | 92 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 298 | 370 | 668 | 163 | 276 | 30 | 11 | 299 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 374 | 328 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 83 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 229 | 316 | 387 | 703 | 159 | 266 | 22 | 11 | 314 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 271 | 239 | 53 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 69 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 309 | 372 | 681 | 151 | 272 | 25 | 11 | 306 | 93 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +5 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 17 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 294 | 400 | 694 | 200 | 182 | 18 | 12 | 311 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 271 | 239 | 53 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 69 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 309 | 372 | 681 | 151 | 272 | 25 | 11 | 306 | 93 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +5 | +6 | 1.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 243 | 210 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 72 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 152 | 258 | 181 | 439 | 29 | 222 | 30 | 11 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres 1 | — | 183 | 158 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 286 | 209 | 495 | 32 | 244 | 25 | 11 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 65 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 328 | 278 | 606 | 74 | 341 | 42 | 15 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 378 | 342 | 87 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 117 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 254 | 320 | 371 | 691 | 117 | 356 | 31 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 413 | 364 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 121 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 176 | 270 | 288 | 559 | 113 | 229 | 29 | 11 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 108 | 97 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 144 | 231 | 206 | 438 | 62 | 217 | 33 | 9 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 156 | 141 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 308 | 383 | 691 | 149 | 314 | 29 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 90 | 80 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 163 | 239 | 188 | 426 | 25 | 235 | 29 | 9 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 347 | 317 | 62 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 99 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 196 | 257 | 303 | 559 | 107 | 252 | 29 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 105 | 96 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 221 | 260 | 482 | 104 | 238 | 37 | 8 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 374 | 341 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 96 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 199 | 262 | 328 | 591 | 129 | 241 | 26 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 271 | 239 | 53 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 69 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 309 | 372 | 681 | 151 | 272 | 25 | 11 | 306 | 93 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +5 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 17 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 375 | 610 | 188 | 168 | 24 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 243 | 210 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 72 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 152 | 258 | 181 | 439 | 29 | 227 | 30 | 11 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres | — | 243 | 198 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 39 | 59 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 253 | 383 | 323 | 707 | 71 | 348 | 24 | 16 | 329 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres 1 | — | 183 | 158 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 286 | 209 | 495 | 32 | 248 | 25 | 11 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Padres 1 | — | 183 | 145 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 401 | 290 | 691 | 41 | 316 | 17 | 19 | 332 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 396 | 97 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 144 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 245 | 319 | 348 | 667 | 104 | 364 | 33 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 443 | 378 | 113 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 59 | 100 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 299 | 396 | 429 | 825 | 130 | 385 | 23 | 13 | 369 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 413 | 364 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 121 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 176 | 270 | 288 | 559 | 113 | 233 | 29 | 11 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ RAW | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 413 | 345 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 63 | 95 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 209 | 336 | 348 | 684 | 139 | 256 | 23 | 15 | 314 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 264 | 238 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 82 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 197 | 277 | 311 | 587 | 113 | 278 | 31 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 264 | 230 | 55 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 66 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 239 | 337 | 374 | 711 | 135 | 314 | 25 | 11 | 324 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 543 | 493 | 94 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 155 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 191 | 254 | 284 | 538 | 93 | 253 | 29 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 543 | 465 | 110 | 26 | 0 | 10 | 66 | 128 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 237 | 336 | 357 | 693 | 120 | 299 | 24 | 12 | 313 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 437 | 85 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 135 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 195 | 257 | 327 | 585 | 133 | 245 | 28 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 479 | 420 | 94 | 20 | 1 | 15 | 52 | 115 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 224 | 312 | 383 | 696 | 160 | 268 | 24 | 11 | 311 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 288 | 255 | 56 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 304 | 373 | 677 | 153 | 266 | 25 | 10 | 302 | 90 | -3 | +0 | +2 | +5 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 288 | 254 | 56 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 72 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 308 | 374 | 682 | 154 | 266 | 25 | 11 | 306 | 90 | -3 | +0 | +2 | +5 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 243 | 211 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 72 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 152 | 258 | 180 | 438 | 28 | 222 | 30 | 11 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres 1 | — | 183 | 157 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 286 | 210 | 496 | 32 | 244 | 25 | 11 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 397 | 97 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 144 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 244 | 319 | 348 | 667 | 103 | 354 | 33 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 413 | 363 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 121 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 176 | 270 | 289 | 559 | 113 | 229 | 29 | 11 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 264 | 236 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 82 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 199 | 277 | 314 | 590 | 114 | 274 | 31 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 543 | 496 | 94 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 155 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 190 | 254 | 282 | 536 | 93 | 248 | 29 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 439 | 85 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 135 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 194 | 257 | 326 | 583 | 132 | 240 | 28 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 288 | 255 | 56 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 304 | 373 | 677 | 153 | 265 | 25 | 10 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 543 | 496 | 94 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 155 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 190 | 254 | 282 | 536 | 93 | 248 | 29 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 439 | 85 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 135 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 194 | 257 | 326 | 583 | 132 | 240 | 28 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 288 | 255 | 56 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 304 | 373 | 677 | 153 | 265 | 25 | 10 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | TOR | 100% | 338 | 302 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 82 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 303 | 391 | 695 | 165 | 269 | 24 | 9 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +7 | 1.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | TOR | 100% | 227 | 202 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 227 | 304 | 392 | 696 | 165 | 270 | 24 | 9 | 310 | 95 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | +5 | 1.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | TOR | 92% | 258 | 230 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 63 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 302 | 389 | 691 | 163 | 269 | 24 | 9 | 308 | 94 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +5 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | TOR | 92% | 276 | 247 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 68 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 300 | 384 | 684 | 160 | 268 | 25 | 9 | 305 | 93 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +5 | +6 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | TOR | 92% | 276 | 247 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 69 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 221 | 297 | 377 | 675 | 156 | 266 | 25 | 9 | 301 | 90 | -3 | -0 | +1 | +5 | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | TOR | 92% | 276 | 247 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 70 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 294 | 369 | 663 | 151 | 264 | 25 | 9 | 297 | 87 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB MLE | TOR | 92% | 246 | 221 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 63 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 289 | 359 | 648 | 146 | 261 | 26 | 9 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | TOR | 92% | 237 | 211 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 58 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 303 | 390 | 693 | 163 | 270 | 24 | 9 | 308 | 94 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +4 | +5 | 1.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | TOR | 92% | 254 | 227 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 63 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 224 | 301 | 385 | 686 | 160 | 269 | 25 | 9 | 306 | 93 | -2 | -0 | +2 | +5 | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | TOR | 92% | 254 | 227 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 63 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 298 | 378 | 676 | 156 | 267 | 25 | 9 | 302 | 90 | -3 | -0 | +1 | +5 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | TOR | 92% | 254 | 228 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 64 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 294 | 370 | 665 | 151 | 265 | 25 | 9 | 297 | 87 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB CTX | TOR | 92% | 226 | 203 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 289 | 360 | 650 | 146 | 262 | 26 | 9 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1496 | 1335 | 295 | 53 | 4 | 49 | 140 | 375 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 221 | 299 | 377 | 676 | 156 | 268 | 25 | 9 | 302 | 71 | -18 | +0 | +6 | +27 | +32 | 4.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 128 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 61 | 163 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 300 | 376 | 676 | 155 | 268 | 25 | 9 | 302 | 71 | -8 | +0 | +3 | +12 | +14 | 2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4415 | 3945 | 815 | 148 | 13 | 104 | 400 | 1216 | 33 | 24 | 13 | 207 | 285 | 330 | 615 | 123 | 268 | 28 | 9 | 274 | 71 | -20 | +0 | +9 | +33 | +40 | 6.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 120 | 22 | 2 | 15 | 59 | 179 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 207 | 285 | 329 | 614 | 122 | 269 | 28 | 9 | 274 | 71 | -7 | +0 | +3 | +12 | +14 | 2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 17 PAwOBA .303 → .239 (−64)K% 17.6% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 15.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.94% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .303 → .239; ISO .200 → .142; BABIP .182 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 374 PAwOBA .309 → .262 (−47)K% 22.2% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.19% | ÷1.054 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.70% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.59% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×0.998 | 18.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.963 | ×0.840 | ×0.976 | ×0.998 | 4.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.036 | ×0.940 | ×0.976 | ×0.998 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.90% | ÷0.950 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.12% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 111, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .309 → .262; ISO .159 → .136; BABIP .266 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 105 PAwOBA .290 → .233 (−57)K% 30.5% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.48% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.48% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.007 | ×0.930 | ×0.978 | ×1.033 | 15.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.098 | ×0.830 | ×0.978 | ×1.033 | 7.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.847 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.27% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .290 → .233; ISO .163 → .129; BABIP .276 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 347 PAwOBA .308 → .252 (−56)K% 23.1% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.05% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.22% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.59% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.05% | ÷0.957 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.96% | ÷0.953 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.37% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .308 → .252; ISO .140 → .116; BABIP .293 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 90 PAwOBA .246 → .202 (−44)K% 23.3% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.33% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.22% | ÷1.026 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×0.963 | ×1.048 | 19.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.36% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×1.048 | 4.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | ×0.963 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 99, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .246 → .202; ISO .039 → .031; BABIP .263 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 156 PAwOBA .360 → .293 (−67)K% 23.7% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.72% | ÷1.014 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.90% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 7.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.23% | ÷0.956 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 22.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.10% | ÷1.118 | ×0.810 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 7.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.04% | ÷0.848 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.80% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 91, 2B 124, 3B 130, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .360 → .293; ISO .176 → .141; BABIP .358 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 108 PAwOBA .252 → .204 (−49)K% 26.9% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.85% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.04% | ÷0.927 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.46% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 16.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷1.116 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 4.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.54% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .252 → .204; ISO .074 → .060; BABIP .250 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 413 PAwOBA .307 → .251 (−57)K% 23.0% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.00% | ÷0.992 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.01% | ÷1.011 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 10.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.40% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.012 | 16.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.60% | ÷0.935 | ×0.810 | ×0.972 | ×1.012 | 4.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.972 | ×1.012 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.52% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .307 → .251; ISO .139 → .117; BABIP .256 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .