Brandon Valenzuela

Brandon ValenzuelaC Toronto Blue Jays

Age 25 S/R 6'0" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION201 act + 134 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .286 / .385

PA134

HR5

K%28

BB%8

BABIP272

ISO164

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT35

xwOBA

610.321

POWER42

Barrel%

467.6

Avg EV

3588.0

Bat Spd

6372.8

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED30

Sprint

1025.5

DEFENSE57

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$9M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$14M		$45M	+$35M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	243	213	37	5	1	1	24	85	3	2	1	174	267	221	487	47	277	35	10	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	243	198	50	7	2	1	39	59	3	2	1	253	383	323	707	71	348	24	16	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	AZL Padres 1	—	183	158	28	3	1	0	21	46	3	0	0	177	286	209	495	32	248	25	11	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	AZL Padres 1	—	183	145	36	4	1	0	34	32	3	0	0	248	401	290	691	41	316	17	19	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	2 teams	—	443	398	93	15	2	8	39	152	2	4	2	234	305	342	647	108	351	34	9	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	2 teams	—	443	378	113	22	3	7	59	100	2	4	2	299	396	429	825	130	385	23	13	369	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	413	365	62	12	1	9	43	131	3	0	1	170	263	282	545	112	233	32	10	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	413	345	72	14	2	10	63	95	3	0	1	209	336	348	684	139	256	23	15	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	2 teams	—	264	237	47	9	1	6	23	87	4	2	0	198	280	321	601	122	285	33	9	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	2 teams	—	264	230	55	14	1	5	30	66	4	2	0	239	337	374	711	135	314	25	11	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	3 teams	—	543	494	93	20	0	11	37	169	4	0	3	188	250	296	546	107	255	31	7	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	3 teams	—	543	465	110	26	0	10	66	128	4	0	3	237	336	357	693	120	299	24	12	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	2 teams	—	479	438	91	17	1	16	34	136	2	6	2	208	268	361	629	153	258	28	7	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	2 teams	—	479	420	94	20	1	15	52	115	2	6	2	224	312	383	696	160	268	24	11	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	MLB	TOR	—	201	178	42	6	0	8	21	50	0	1	0	236	317	404	721	169	281	25	10	315	99	-0	+0	+2	+4	+6	1.2
YTD	25	MLB	TOR	—	201	177	42	6	0	8	22	49	0	1	0	237	322	407	728	169	281	24	11	324	106	+1	+0	+2	+4	+6	1.3
ROS	25	MLB	TOR	100%	134	122	27	5	0	5	11	37	0	1	0	221	286	385	671	164	270	28	8	298	86	-2	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.5
ROS	25	MLB	TOR	100%	134	122	27	5	0	5	11	37	0	1	0	221	286	385	671	164	272	28	8	296	85	-2	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.4
FULL	25	MLB	TOR	—	335	300	69	11	0	13	32	87	0	2	0	230	304	397	701	167	277	26	10	308	94	-2	+0	+2	+6	+9	1.6
TOT	25	MLB	TOR	—	335	300	69	11	0	13	32	87	0	2	0	230	304	397	701	167	277	26	10	308	94	-2	+0	+2	+6	+9	1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	TOR	92%	415	374	84	15	1	15	36	112	2	3	1	225	296	390	686	166	273	27	9	302	89	-5	+0	+1	+7	+12	1.5
2028	27	MLB	TOR	92%	421	379	85	15	1	15	37	112	2	3	1	224	297	388	685	164	275	27	9	304	90	-5	+0	+1	+8	+12	1.6
2029	28	MLB	TOR	92%	422	380	85	15	1	15	37	112	2	3	1	224	296	387	683	163	275	27	9	304	90	-5	+0	-0	+8	+12	1.5
2030	29	MLB	TOR	92%	414	372	83	15	1	14	37	111	2	2	1	223	297	382	679	159	275	27	9	302	89	-5	+0	-1	+7	+12	1.4
2031	30	MLB	TOR	92%	407	366	82	15	1	14	36	110	2	2	1	224	297	385	682	161	273	27	9	299	87	-6	+0	-1	+7	+12	1.2
2032	31	MLB	TOR	92%	380	341	74	13	0	13	34	104	2	2	0	217	292	370	661	152	271	27	9	295	84	-7	+0	-2	+7	+11	0.9
2033	32	MLB	TOR	92%	351	315	67	12	0	11	31	97	2	1	0	213	287	356	643	143	267	28	9	290	80	-8	+0	-3	+6	+10	0.6
2027	26	MLB	TOR	92%	382	344	78	14	1	14	33	103	2	2	1	227	298	395	694	169	274	27	9	299	87	-5	+0	+1	+7	+11	1.3
2028	27	MLB	TOR	92%	387	348	79	14	1	14	34	103	2	2	1	227	299	394	693	167	276	27	9	301	88	-5	+0	+1	+7	+11	1.4
2029	28	MLB	TOR	92%	388	349	79	14	1	14	34	103	2	2	1	226	299	393	691	166	276	27	9	301	88	-5	+0	-0	+7	+11	1.3
2030	29	MLB	TOR	92%	381	342	77	14	1	13	34	102	2	2	1	225	299	386	685	161	276	27	9	299	87	-6	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.2
2031	30	MLB	TOR	92%	374	336	75	13	1	13	33	101	2	2	1	223	296	384	680	161	275	27	9	296	85	-6	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.0
2032	31	MLB	TOR	92%	350	314	69	12	0	12	31	95	2	2	0	220	294	373	667	153	272	27	9	292	82	-7	+0	-2	+6	+10	0.8
2033	32	MLB	TOR	92%	323	291	62	11	0	10	28	89	1	1	0	213	284	354	638	141	269	28	9	287	78	-8	+0	-3	+6	+9	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2719	2446	546	97	5	95	238	733	13	14	5	223	296	383	679	160	276	27	9	297	85	-45	+1	-5	+49	+77	7.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	130	23	1	23	57	175	3	3	1	222	295	383	678	161	274	27	9	297	85	-11	+0	-1	+12	+18	1.9
Career	—			—	5512	4952	1038	186	12	153	480	1601	35	31	14	210	284	345	629	135	274	29	9	279	72	-176	+1	-6	+98	+156	7.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	122	22	1	18	57	189	4	4	2	209	284	342	626	134	273	29	9	279	72	-21	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	243	198	50	7	2	1	39	59	3	2	1	253	383	323	707	71	348	24	16	329	110	+3	+0	—	—	+7	1.0
2019	18	ROK	AZL Padres 1	—	183	145	36	4	1	0	34	32	3	0	0	248	401	290	691	41	316	17	19	332	112	+3	+0	—	—	+5	0.8
2021	20	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	65	49	12	1	0	1	15	20	0	1	0	245	422	327	748	82	379	31	23	352	128	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2021	20	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	378	329	101	21	3	6	44	80	2	3	2	307	392	444	836	137	386	21	12	372	143	+18	-0	—	—	+11	2.9
2022	21	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	413	345	72	14	2	10	63	95	3	0	1	209	336	348	684	139	256	23	15	314	99	-1	-0	—	—	+12	1.1
2023	22	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	108	94	17	4	0	1	13	29	1	2	0	181	287	255	542	74	250	27	12	258	56	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2023	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	156	136	38	10	1	4	17	37	3	0	0	279	372	456	828	176	358	24	11	370	141	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.2
2024	23	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	90	77	15	3	0	0	11	21	0	0	1	195	295	234	529	39	263	23	12	249	49	-5	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2024	23	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	347	307	74	16	0	9	33	80	3	0	2	241	321	381	702	140	293	23	10	314	98	-1	-1	—	—	+10	0.9
2024	23	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	106	81	21	7	0	1	22	27	1	0	0	259	423	383	806	123	364	25	21	367	139	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
2025	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	105	92	19	6	0	3	12	32	0	0	0	207	298	370	668	163	276	30	11	299	87	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2025	24	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	374	328	75	14	1	12	40	83	2	6	2	229	316	387	703	159	266	22	11	314	98	-1	+0	—	—	+11	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,083	106	17	222	291	381	+55	+16	9.8	9.1
	/162	664	23	4	222	291	381	+11.9	+3.5	2.1	pk7: 8
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brandon Valenzuela (OGILVIE)	25	30→35	40→42	30	45	230/304/397	167	277	13	2	26%	10%	94	+1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Ellis 2021 · AA	25	40→37	48→55	37→40	47	206/278/348	141	263	16	3	28%	8%	74	-0.1	203/294/382	179	265	20	5	30%	10%	90	+1.0	187/284/370	183	237	21	4	30%	10%	81	+0.3
✕Isan Díaz 2022 · MLB	26	42	48→55	38→45	48	214/291/356	142	281	16	4	29%	9%	82	+0.5	218/292/403	185	293	25	9	33%	9%	95	+1.4	193/273/381	188	236	29	8	32%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Tyler Ogle 2016 · A	25	41→44	52→50	36→30	50	217/297/379	162	259	21	2	25%	9%	91	+1.1	214/283/358	144	276	17	5	28%	8%	79	+0.3	183/255/309	127	233	13	0	27%	7%	53	-0.4
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2023 · AAA	25	42→44	54→55	35→45	37	227/259/399	172	264	23	2	25%	3%	79	+0.3	213/264/355	142	248	19	4	23%	5%	70	-0.3	196/255/321	124	227	17	2	22%	6%	55	-0.6
✕Brett Cumberland 2019 · AA	24	38→39	48→50	38→30	39	191/285/329	138	300	17	2	39%	8%	74	-0.1	197/298/323	126	295	14	3	35%	8%	78	+0.2	178/293/290	111	269	13	1	35%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Chance Sisco 2020 · MLB	25	44→54	51→50	41→40	44	222/308/378	155	297	19	3	30%	8%	95	+1.4	207/300/356	149	279	17	4	30%	9%	86	+0.8	174/281/301	128	241	13	0	31%	10%	63	-0.3
✕Tristan Gray 2021 · AA	25	38→35	51→55	37→40	45	205/274/365	161	254	19	5	28%	8%	77	+0.1	199/252/356	157	274	21	5	35%	6%	65	-0.7	202/259/335	133	273	15	3	31%	6%	61	-0.6
✕Griff Erickson 2014 · AA	26	41→50	46→45	37→40	48	208/282/338	130	262	14	4	26%	9%	73	-0.1	214/277/338	124	273	13	5	25%	7%	71	-0.3	213/273/328	115	265	12	2	24%	7%	64	-0.3
✕Nick Hundley 2009 · MLB	25	40→46	51→55	41→40	43	214/264/368	155	251	19	2	24%	6%	73	-0.1	239/299/403	164	296	17	5	24%	8%	96	+1.5	255/322/429	174	321	17	4	25%	8%	109	+1.2
✕Scott Manea 2022 · AA	26	45→41	47→45	36→30	47	224/307/355	131	303	15	4	30%	9%	88	+0.9	205/291/304	99	312	9	5	34%	9%	68	-0.5	165/265/238	73	266	6	0	36%	10%	39	-1.4
✕Ian Rice 2018 · AA	24	39	53→50	41→30	49	209/293/378	169	268	22	3	30%	10%	89	+0.9	199/283/322	123	287	14	3	33%	9%	69	-0.4	179/269/275	96	268	10	1	34%	9%	50	-0.8
✕Jett Bandy 2015 · AA	25	45	48→50	38→45	43	230/290/373	143	261	16	4	19%	5%	85	+0.7	226/283/363	137	269	16	4	22%	5%	80	+0.4	217/277/353	136	259	17	2	23%	4%	74	-0.0
●Luke Montz 2009 · MLB	26	42→46	49→55	41→40	45	216/276/363	147	273	17	3	28%	7%	77	+0.1	204/273/344	140	253	17	4	26%	8%	71	-0.3	211/285/427	216	246	30	4	28%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Michael McKenry 2010 · AA	25	45→47	51→55	39→40	49	228/299/389	161	277	18	4	24%	8%	93	+1.3	218/279/351	133	278	14	3	26%	7%	75	-0.0	241/316/409	168	288	21	2	23%	9%	102	+0.7
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB	27	41→42	50	42→40	43	209/294/364	155	295	17	3	34%	8%	85	+0.7	225/296/383	158	313	17	4	32%	7%	91	+1.1	219/289/370	151	311	17	2	33%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Alex Isola 2023 · AA	25	41→45	52→50	43→40	47	218/287/374	156	271	21	3	28%	8%	85	+0.7	214/279/342	128	273	15	6	26%	8%	72	-0.2	203/270/322	119	256	14	5	26%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Devin Mann 2022 · AA	25	39→46	52→55	43→45	43	208/281/373	165	273	19	7	31%	7%	82	+0.5	221/299/382	161	292	18	5	29%	9%	92	+1.2	218/299/375	157	288	18	3	29%	9%	87	+0.6
✕Matthew Brown 2008 · AAA	25	44→49	50→55	39→45	42	225/282/383	158	291	17	6	28%	6%	85	+0.7	217/272/372	155	278	17	6	28%	6%	77	+0.1	204/258/354	151	260	16	5	28%	6%	64	-0.5
✕Dilson Herrera 2019 · MLB	25	44→54	48→50	38→50	40	223/274/360	137	292	17	5	29%	6%	76	+0.0	206/266/378	172	276	23	9	33%	6%	77	+0.1	177/242/362	185	225	26	9	35%	6%	60	-0.5
✕Wilin Rosario 2013 · MLB	24	43→49	56→60	39→45	40	234/272/418	185	273	26	5	26%	5%	90	+1.0	237/272/388	151	279	19	5	22%	5%	81	+0.4	236/269/379	143	273	18	3	21%	4%	72	-0.1