Kyle Higashioka

C Texas Rangers
Age 37 R/R 6'1" / 202 lbs MLB HR +15%BB +5% Svc 8.029 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202434MLBSD263.220/.264/.4761721021.8
202535MLBTEX327.241/.292/.403113911.5
202636AAATEX52.239/.327/.4132152—.188/.250/.292
202636MLBTEX186.218/.306/.37070890.5
2027PROJ37MLBTEX138.217/.284/.39761870.3
2028PROJ38MLBTEX80.206/.272/.3703076-0.7
Last 3 seasons WAR 3.7  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service8.029First FA2028Options2
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Barrel%58
Bat Spd47
Avg EV43
xwOBA40
Speed10
CompsJohn Flaherty (age 37) · Miguel Olivo (age 36) · Martín Maldonado (age 37)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 8987vR 80
AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .284 / .397
PA138
HR6
K%23
BB%8
BABIP243
ISO184
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: -0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +2.5 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.2-0.72728
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT45
xAVG
170.224
POWER50
Barrel%
589.4
Avg EV
4388.6
Bat Spd
4771.1
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED35
Sprint
1024.6
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 623 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
195
428
—
wRC+
94
98
▶R
wOBA
307
313
—
ISO
221
191
◀L
BABIP
243
267
▶R
K%
24.1%
24.8%
—
BB%
4.1%
7.5%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2017
Service   8.029 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
OPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M+0.2$0.8M-$0.5M
Totals $1M $0.8M -$0.5M
Options · projected decision
2027MUTUAL OPT$1.3M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
2028MUTUAL OPT$7.0M / $1.0M buyoutDECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
200818 ROKGCL Yankees — 5046 12101 281 00 261306348654 87289 164 291 37 — — — — — —
201020 ACharleston RiverDogs — 359320 721806 31645 02 225303338641 113263 189 291 45 — — — — — —
201121 A+Tampa Yankees — 180164 391004 14221 10 238302372674 134252 128 302 65 — — — — — —
201121 ACharleston RiverDogs — 144130 29604 9192 00 223284362645 138229 136 285 39 — — — — — —
201222 AATrenton Thunder — 2623 2000 280 00 8716087247 125 318 123 -37 — — — — — —
201222 A+Tampa Yankees — 139124 23506 10340 11 185244371615 185198 247 264 26 — — — — — —
201323 AATrenton Thunder — 2625 8301 050 00 320320560880 240368 190 367 91 — — — — — —
201424 A+Tampa Yankees — 3126 6301 440 00 231333462795 231227 1313 340 93 — — — — — —
201424 ROKGCL Yankees1 — 2723 5100 370 00 217308261569 43294 2611 259 7 — — — — — —
201424 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 2522 9301 320 11 4094806821.162 273421 812 502 226 — — — — — —
201525 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 1717 3100 040 00 176176235412 59231 240 182 -8 — — — — — —
201525 A+Tampa Yankees — 331307 781825 22491 00 254306375681 121287 157 305 46 — — — — — —
201626 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 160148 379010 12310 01 250306514820 264252 198 356 77 — — — — — —
201626 AATrenton Thunder — 256222 6515011 26420 01 293367509876 216305 1610 373 101 — — — — — —
201727 MLBNew York Yankees — 2018 0000 260 00 100100 3010 70 -67 -4 +0 +1 +1 +0 -0.1
201727 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 5753 14402 470 00 264316453769 189273 127 339 63 — — — — — —
201828 MLBNew York Yankees — 7972 12203 6161 00 167241319560 153170 208 254 55 -4 +0 +4 +5 +2 0.7
201828 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 211188 381015 17443 20 202278346623 144234 218 279 32 — — — — — —
201929 MLBNew York Yankees — 5756 12503 0260 00 214214464679 250321 460 286 76 -2 +0 +3 +6 +1 0.9
201929 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 270241 6713020 24533 00 278351581932 303276 209 400 91 — — — — — —
202030 MLBNew York Yankees — 4848 12104 0110 00 250250521771 271242 230 332 104 +0 +0 +3 +1 +1 0.5
202131 MLBNew York Yankees — 211193 3510010 17590 00 181248389636 207200 288 280 72 -7 +0 +8 +4 +5 0.9
202232 MLBNew York Yankees — 248229 527010 12521 01 227269389657 162246 215 285 75 -7 -0 +13 +4 +5 1.6
202333 MLBNew York Yankees — 260242 5713010 14740 00 236277413691 178292 285 300 86 -4 +0 +10 +5 +6 1.7
202434 MLBSan Diego Padres — 263246 5410117 15740 20 220264476740 256237 286 319 102 +1 +0 +6 +5 +6 1.8
202535 MLBTexas Rangers — 327303 7314111 20722 31 241292403695 162279 226 307 91 -3 +0 +5 +6 +7 1.5
202636 MLBTexas Rangers — 186165 36407 19472 00 218306370676 152261 2510 307 89 -2 +0 -1 +4 +4 0.5
202636 AAARound Rock Express — 5246 11202 690 10 239327413740 174257 1712 332 52 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 16991572 34366275 1054376 52 218270406676 188250 266 296 86 -28 +0 +53 +41 +37 10.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
200818 ROK MLEGCL Yankees — 5047 10101 1121 00 213245298543 85238 242 223 37 — — — — — —
201020 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 359329 621505 22815 02 188250280530 91229 236 234 45 — — — — — —
201121 A+ MLETampa Yankees — 180167 35904 11301 10 210263335598 126235 176 265 65 — — — — — —
201121 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 144134 25503 5262 00 187227291518 104201 183 226 39 — — — — — —
201222 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 2623 2000 2100 00 8716087247 129 388 113 -37 — — — — — —
201222 A+ MLETampa Yankees — 139128 19405 7490 11 148193297489 148170 355 207 26 — — — — — —
201323 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 2625 7201 060 00 280280480760 200323 230 303 91 — — — — — —
201424 A+ MLETampa Yankees — 3127 6301 360 00 222300444744 222210 1910 306 93 — — — — — —
201424 ROK MLEGCL Yankees1 — 2724 4100 2100 00 167231208439 42224 377 179 7 — — — — — —
201525 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 1717 3100 050 00 176176235412 59219 290 157 -8 — — — — — —
201525 A+ MLETampa Yankees — 331313 621515 16691 00 198239300540 102236 215 236 46 — — — — — —
201626 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 160153 31708 7370 01 203237405643 203214 234 282 77 — — — — — —
201626 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 256231 601309 17510 01 260310433743 173272 207 317 101 — — — — — —
201727 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 2018 0000 260 00 100100 3010 70 -67 -4 +0 +1 +1 +0 -0.1
201727 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 5754 11301 380 00 204246315560 111237 145 262 63 — — — — — —
201828 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 7972 12203 6161 00 167241319560 153170 208 249 55 -4 +0 +4 +5 +2 0.7
201828 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 211195 32814 11533 20 164220277497 113192 255 216 32 — — — — — —
201929 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 5756 12503 0260 00 214214464679 250321 460 280 76 -2 +0 +3 +6 +1 0.9
201929 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 270250 5410015 15633 00 216269436705 220223 236 303 91 — — — — — —
202030 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 4848 12104 0110 00 250250521771 271242 230 322 104 +0 +0 +3 +1 +1 0.5
202131 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 211193 341009 17590 00 176243368611 192200 288 275 72 -7 +0 +8 +4 +5 0.9
202232 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 248229 51709 12521 01 223264371636 148246 215 280 75 -7 -0 +13 +4 +5 1.6
202333 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 260242 561309 14740 00 231273397670 165292 285 296 86 -4 +0 +10 +5 +6 1.7
202434 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 263246 5511117 15740 20 224268484752 260237 286 320 102 +1 +0 +6 +5 +6 1.8
202535 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 327303 7315110 20722 31 241292396688 155279 226 303 91 -3 +0 +5 +6 +7 1.5
202636 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 186165 36407 19472 00 218306370676 152261 2510 300 89 -2 +0 -1 +4 +4 0.5
202636 AAA MLERound Rock Express — 5248 9201 4110 10 188250292542 104215 218 245 52 — — — — — —
200818 ROK MLEGCL Yankees — 5047 10101 1121 00 213245298543 85257 242 223 37 — — — — — —
200818 ROK RAWGCL Yankees — 5046 12101 281 00 261306348654 87289 164 291 37 — — — — — —
201020 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 359329 621505 22815 02 188250280530 91234 236 234 45 — — — — — —
201020 A RAWCharleston RiverDogs — 359320 721806 31645 02 225303338641 113263 189 291 45 — — — — — —
201121 A+ MLE2 teams — 324301 611407 16563 10 203250319569 116224 175 248 54 — — — — — —
201121 A+ RAW2 teams — 324294 681608 23413 10 231294367661 136242 137 294 54 — — — — — —
201222 A+ MLE2 teams — 165152 21405 8590 11 138181263444 125176 365 192 16 — — — — — —
201222 A+ RAW2 teams — 165147 25506 12420 11 170231327558 156186 257 242 16 — — — — — —
201323 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 2625 7201 060 00 280280480760 200333 230 303 91 — — — — — —
201323 AA RAWTrenton Thunder — 2625 8301 050 00 320320560880 240368 190 367 91 — — — — — —
201424 A+ MLE3 teams — 8374 13501 7230 11 176247284531 108231 288 247 53 — — — — — —
201424 A+ RAW3 teams — 8371 20702 10130 11 282370465835 183310 1612 362 53 — — — — — —
201525 A+ MLE2 teams — 348330 651615 16731 00 197236297533 100237 215 232 43 — — — — — —
201525 A+ RAW2 teams — 348324 811925 22531 00 250300367667 117285 156 299 43 — — — — — —
201626 AA MLE2 teams — 416384 9120017 24890 02 237282422704 185259 216 304 92 — — — — — —
201626 AA RAW2 teams — 416370 10224021 38730 02 276343511854 235285 189 367 92 — — — — — —
201727 AAA MLE2 teams — 7772 11301 5140 00 153208236444 83175 186 212 30 — — — — — —
201727 AAA RAW2 teams — 7771 14402 6130 00 197260338598 141214 178 269 30 — — — — — —
201828 AAA MLE2 teams — 290267 441017 17694 20 165226288514 124192 246 225 39 — — — — — —
201828 AAA RAW2 teams — 290260 501218 23604 20 192267338606 146216 218 272 39 — — — — — —
201929 AAA MLE2 teams — 327306 6615018 15893 00 216259441700 225238 275 299 89 — — — — — —
201929 AAA RAW2 teams — 327297 7918023 24793 00 266327559886 293283 247 380 89 — — — — — —
202030 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 4848 12104 0110 00 250250521771 271242 230 322 104 +0 +0 +3 +1 +1 0.5
202030 MLB RAWNew York Yankees — 4848 12104 0110 00 250250521771 271242 230 332 104 +0 +0 +3 +1 +1 0.5
202131 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 211193 341009 17590 00 176243368611 192198 288 275 72 -7 +0 +8 +4 +5 0.9
202131 MLB RAWNew York Yankees — 211193 3510010 17590 00 181248389636 207200 288 280 72 -7 +0 +8 +4 +5 0.9
202232 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 248229 51709 12521 01 223264371636 148244 215 280 75 -7 -0 +13 +4 +5 1.6
202232 MLB RAWNew York Yankees — 248229 527010 12521 01 227269389657 162246 215 285 75 -7 -0 +13 +4 +5 1.6
202333 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 260242 561309 14740 00 231273397670 165290 285 296 86 -4 +0 +10 +5 +6 1.7
202333 MLB RAWNew York Yankees — 260242 5713010 14740 00 236277413691 178292 285 300 86 -4 +0 +10 +5 +6 1.7
202434 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 263246 5511117 15740 20 224268484752 260244 286 320 102 +1 +0 +6 +5 +6 1.8
202434 MLB RAWSan Diego Padres — 263246 5410117 15740 20 220264476740 256237 286 319 102 +1 +0 +6 +5 +6 1.8
202535 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 327303 7315110 20722 31 241292396688 155283 226 303 91 -3 +0 +5 +6 +7 1.5
202535 MLB RAWTexas Rangers — 327303 7314111 20722 31 241292403695 162279 226 307 91 -3 +0 +5 +6 +7 1.5
202636 MLB MLE2 teams — 238213 45608 23582 10 211294352646 141252 2410 288 81 -5 +0 -1 +4 +5 0.3
202636 MLB RAW2 teams — 238211 47609 25562 10 223311379690 156260 2411 312 81 -5 +0 -1 +4 +5 0.3
200818 ROK MLEGCL Yankees — 5048 10101 1121 00 208245292537 83238 242 223 37 — — — — — —
201020 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 359329 621505 22815 02 188250280530 91229 236 234 45 — — — — — —
201121 A+ MLE2 teams — 324302 611407 16563 10 202250318568 116220 175 248 54 — — — — — —
201222 A+ MLE2 teams — 165156 21405 8590 11 135181256438 122164 365 192 16 — — — — — —
201323 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 2626 7201 060 00 269280462742 192323 230 303 91 — — — — — —
201424 A+ MLE3 teams — 8376 13501 7230 11 171247276523 105217 288 247 53 — — — — — —
201525 A+ MLE2 teams — 348328 651615 16731 00 198236299535 101235 215 232 43 — — — — — —
201626 AA MLE2 teams — 416389 9120017 24890 02 234282416698 183250 216 304 92 — — — — — —
201727 AAA MLE2 teams — 7772 11301 5140 00 153208236444 83175 186 212 30 — — — — — —
201828 AAA MLE2 teams — 290267 441017 17694 20 165226288514 124186 246 225 39 — — — — — —
201929 AAA MLE2 teams — 327306 6615018 15893 00 216259441700 225240 275 299 89 — — — — — —
202030 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 4848 12104 0110 00 250250521771 271242 230 322 104 — — — — — —
202131 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 211192 341009 17590 00 177243370613 193200 288 275 72 — — — — — —
202232 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 248233 51709 12521 01 219264365629 146246 215 280 75 — — — — — —
202333 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 260244 561309 14740 00 230273393667 164292 285 296 86 — — — — — —
202434 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 263246 5511117 15740 20 224268484752 260237 286 320 102 — — — — — —
202535 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 327302 7315110 20722 31 242292397690 156279 226 303 91 — — — — — —
202636 MLB MLE2 teams — 238211 45608 23582 10 213294355650 142251 2410 288 81 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202434 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 263246 5511117 15740 20 224268484752 260237 286 320 102 — — — — — —
202535 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 327302 7315110 20722 31 242292397690 156279 226 303 91 — — — — — —
202636 MLB MLE2 teams — 238211 45608 23582 10 213294355650 142251 2410 288 81 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202737 MLB MLETEX 100% 223202 44819 17522 21 215282387669 172243 238 297 87 -3 +0 -1 +4 +5 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202737 MLB CTXTEX 100% 138125 27506 11321 10 217284397682 180243 238 301 87 -2 +0 -0 +2 +3 0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202838 MLB MLETEX 100% 8073 15303 6191 00 204270360630 156233 248 281 76 -2 +0 -8 +1 +2 -0.7
202838 MLB CTXTEX 100% 8073 14203 6191 00 206272370642 164233 248 285 76 -2 +0 -8 +1 +2 -0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 17791645 35768278 1114567 52 217269403672 186248 266 295 69 -30 +0 +45 +42 +39 9.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650601 13025128 411673 21 216270401671 185249 266 295 69 -11 +0 +16 +15 +14 3.6
Career— MLE — 42783959 8181764142 249102224 128 207258361618 154239 246 270 69 -32 +0 +44 +45 +42 10.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650602 12527122 381554 21 208260365625 158240 246 270 69 -11 +0 +15 +15 +14 3.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 52 PAwOBA .323 → .245 (−78)K% 17.3% → 20.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.31%÷1.000×1.200——20.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.54%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9407.48%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP18.92%÷1.000×0.930—×0.94016.54%
Doubles /BIP5.41%÷1.000×0.830—×0.9404.22%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP5.41%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9403.56%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .323 → .245; ISO .174 → .121; BABIP .257 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 270 PAwOBA .390 → .303 (−87)K% 19.6% → 23.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.63%÷1.007×1.200——23.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.52%÷1.066×0.690—×0.9825.42%
HBP% /PA1.11%—×0.940—×0.9821.03%
Singles /BIP18.09%÷1.019×0.930×0.950×0.98215.39%
Doubles /BIP6.91%÷1.009×0.830×0.950×0.9825.30%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.938×0.970×0.950×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP10.64%÷1.087×0.840—×0.9828.07%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 88, K 101, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .390 → .303; ISO .303 → .232; BABIP .276 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 211 PAwOBA .274 → .216 (−58)K% 20.9% → 25.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.85%÷1.002×1.200——24.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.06%÷1.034×0.690—×0.9925.33%
HBP% /PA1.42%—×0.940—×0.9921.33%
Singles /BIP15.28%÷1.032×0.930×0.950×0.99212.98%
Doubles /BIP6.94%÷1.004×0.830×0.950×0.9925.41%
Triples /BIP0.69%÷1.130×0.970×0.950×0.9920.56%
Home runs /BIP3.47%÷1.046×0.840—×0.9922.77%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 126, K 100, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .274 → .216; ISO .144 → .114; BABIP .234 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 57 PAwOBA .330 → .262 (−67)K% 12.3% → 14.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.28%÷0.995×1.200——14.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.02%÷1.105×0.690—×1.0034.40%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0030.00%
Singles /BIP17.39%÷0.980×0.930×0.950×1.00315.73%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷0.951×0.830×0.950×1.0037.23%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.950×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷1.247×0.840—×1.0032.94%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .330 → .262; ISO .189 → .139; BABIP .273 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AATrenton Thunder · 256 PAwOBA .375 → .317 (−58)K% 16.4% → 20.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.41%÷0.997×1.220——20.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.16%÷1.061×0.700—×0.9886.62%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×0.9880.00%
Singles /BIP21.67%÷0.981×0.970×0.950×0.98820.11%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷0.962×0.860×0.950×0.9886.99%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.039×0.950×0.950×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP6.11%÷1.015×0.780—×0.9884.64%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 96, 2B 92, 3B 108, K 99, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .375 → .317; ISO .216 → .177; BABIP .305 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 160 PAwOBA .342 → .282 (−60)K% 19.4% → 23.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.38%÷0.994×1.200——23.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.25%÷0.977×0.690—×1.0184.49%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP15.38%÷0.991×0.930×0.950×1.01813.97%
Doubles /BIP7.69%÷1.059×0.830×0.950×1.0185.83%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×0.950×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP8.55%÷0.996×0.840—×1.0187.34%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .342 → .282; ISO .264 → .217; BABIP .252 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Tampa Yankees · 331 PAwOBA .297 → .236 (−61)K% 14.8% → 20.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.80%÷1.016×1.420——20.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.65%÷1.015×0.750—×0.9784.80%
HBP% /PA0.30%—×0.930—×0.9780.27%
Singles /BIP20.54%÷1.046×0.920×0.950×0.97816.79%
Doubles /BIP6.98%÷1.044×0.960×0.950×0.9785.96%
Triples /BIP0.78%÷1.150×0.810×0.950×0.9780.51%
Home runs /BIP1.94%÷0.832×0.880—×0.9782.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 66, 1B 109, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 103, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .297 → .236; ISO .121 → .104; BABIP .287 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 17 PAwOBA .177 → .157 (−20)K% 23.5% → 28.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.53%÷0.991×1.200——28.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷1.139×0.690—×1.0330.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP15.38%÷1.011×0.930—×1.03314.62%
Doubles /BIP7.69%÷0.903×0.830—×1.0337.30%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970—×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.878×0.840—×1.0330.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 98, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .177 → .157; ISO .059 → .052; BABIP .231 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).