Dylan Jordan — OGILVIE

Dylan Jordan P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.0 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%20.2%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP53

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD3550

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+1.1	$6M	+$2M
2033	Arb-3	$9M	+1.1	$5M	+$0.7M
Totals		$22M		$27M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	76	318	85	30	3	100%	4.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	1.5%	2.36	3.82	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	76	318	85	30	3	100%	4.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	1.5%	2.36	3.82	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	76	318	85	30	3	100%	4.0	26.7%	9.4%	17.3%	0.9%	2.36	2.56	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	97	416	137	53	11	100%	4.4	24.5%	14.9%	9.6%	3.4%	4.81	4.77	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	97	416	137	53	11	100%	4.4	24.5%	14.9%	9.6%	3.4%	4.81	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	LAA	17	17	80	331	113	39	5	100%	4.7	34.1%	11.8%	22.4%	1.5%	3.71	2.54	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	LAA	5	5	17	85	24	14	6	100%	3.5	28.2%	16.5%	11.8%	7.1%	9.87	6.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	100	423	88	44	12	100%	4.8	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	2.8%	4.60	4.53	+0.4
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	105	444	97	42	12	100%	5.0	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	2.7%	4.42	4.32	+0.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	109	460	104	41	12	100%	5.5	22.6%	8.9%	13.8%	2.7%	4.27	4.17	+0.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	112	472	109	40	13	100%	5.6	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	2.7%	4.15	4.07	+1.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	113	478	112	40	13	100%	6.0	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	2.6%	4.07	4.01	+1.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	113	478	113	40	13	100%	6.0	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	2.6%	4.02	3.99	+1.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	111	470	112	40	13	100%	5.9	23.7%	8.5%	15.3%	2.7%	4.03	4.03	+1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	108	456	108	39	13	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.6%	15.0%	2.8%	4.08	4.11	+1.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	103	436	102	39	13	100%	6.1	23.4%	8.8%	14.5%	2.9%	4.18	4.24	+0.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	97	410	94	37	13	100%	6.1	23.0%	9.2%	13.9%	3.1%	4.33	4.42	+0.5
2037	31	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	90	382	86	36	13	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.5%	13.1%	3.4%	4.51	4.62	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	84	353	78	35	13	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.9%	12.3%	3.6%	4.71	4.85	+0.0
2039	33	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	77	324	77	31	13	100%	5.9	23.7%	9.6%	14.1%	3.9%	4.78	4.83	+0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	49	207	43	21	6	100%	4.9	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	2.8%	4.63	4.56	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	77	325	71	31	9	100%	5.1	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	2.8%	4.45	4.35	+0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	92	388	88	34	11	100%	5.4	22.6%	8.9%	13.8%	2.7%	4.30	4.20	+0.8
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	100	422	98	36	11	100%	5.6	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	2.7%	4.18	4.10	+1.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	104	439	103	37	12	100%	5.8	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	2.7%	4.10	4.04	+1.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	105	443	105	37	12	100%	5.8	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	2.7%	4.05	4.02	+1.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	106	448	106	38	12	100%	5.9	23.7%	8.5%	15.3%	2.8%	4.06	4.06	+1.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	103	435	103	37	12	100%	6.1	23.6%	8.6%	15.0%	2.9%	4.11	4.14	+1.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	98	414	97	37	12	100%	6.1	23.4%	8.8%	14.5%	3.0%	4.21	4.27	+0.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	92	388	89	36	12	100%	6.1	23.0%	9.2%	13.9%	3.2%	4.36	4.45	+0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	86	363	82	34	12	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.5%	13.1%	3.4%	4.55	4.66	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	80	338	75	33	12	100%	6.2	22.2%	9.9%	12.3%	3.7%	4.75	4.89	+0.0
2039	33	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	73	308	73	29	12	100%	6.1	23.7%	9.6%	14.1%	4.0%	4.82	4.87	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		202	202	1164	4913	1133	441	147	100%	5.8	23.0%	9.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.31	3.94	+13.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	195	76	25	100%	5.8	23.0%	9.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.31	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		41	41	174	734	162	99	19	100%	4.2	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	2.6%	3.73	4.35	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	47	200	845	186	114	22	100%	4.2	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	2.6%	3.73	4.35	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Jordan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	20.2%	11.3%	2.8%	—	4.33	21.8%	12.3%	314	-0.41	—	—	—
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	90
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	89
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	88
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	86
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	86
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	86
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	86
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	85
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	85
Edgar Moreta R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SP	3.94	16.3%	9.8%	1.8%	.269	5.11	17.7%	9.2%	117	+1.17	3.94	170	85
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.3%	186	-0.17	2.78	275	84
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	84
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	84
Eury Rosado R 2021 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP	3.83	17.2%	9.2%	1.9%	.231	6.00	19.2%	5.1%	55	+2.17	3.83	109	84
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	84
C.J. Culpepper R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP	3.55	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	.291	4.14	18.9%	7.4%	191	+0.59	3.30	277	83
Tyler Schlaffer R 2021 · 5.17 FIP	20	SP	5.17	16.1%	10.7%	3.8%	.344	5.23	17.2%	4.5%	154	+0.06	3.79	399	83
Nathanael Perez Lopez R 2018 · 4.93 FIP	20	SP	4.93	16.2%	10.6%	3.4%	.352	6.72	19.4%	7.9%	61	+1.79	2.54	203	83
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	83
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.9	98	22.8%	9.1%	1.13	4.31
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17