Dylan Jordan — OGILVIE

Dylan Jordan P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 53 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%20.2%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP53

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD3550

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	19	19	76	318	85	30	3	100%	4.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	1.8%	2.36	3.96	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	19	19	76	318	85	30	3	100%	4.0	26.7%	9.4%	17.3%	0.9%	2.36	2.56	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	15	15	72	296	100	36	4	100%	4.8	25.0%	14.4%	10.6%	1.8%	3.75	3.77	+0.9
ROS	20	MLB	LAA	11	11	53	225	46	23	6	100%	4.9	20.2%	10.4%	9.9%	2.8%	4.63	4.63	-0.0
ROS	20	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	10.4%	9.9%	2.8%	4.60	4.60	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	LAA	—	—	125	521	146	59	10	—	—	27.9%	11.4%	16.5%	2.0%	4.12	4.14	+1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	LAA	12	12	56	237	50	23	7	100%	4.7	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	2.8%	4.51	4.46	+0.1
2028	22	MLB	LAA	12	12	59	249	55	23	7	100%	4.9	22.1%	9.1%	13.0%	2.7%	4.36	4.26	+0.2
2029	23	MLB	LAA	11	11	61	258	59	22	7	100%	5.6	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.7%	4.22	4.13	+0.3
2030	24	MLB	LAA	11	11	63	264	62	22	7	100%	5.7	23.5%	8.4%	15.0%	2.7%	4.11	4.04	+0.4
2031	25	MLB	LAA	11	11	63	268	64	22	7	100%	5.8	23.8%	8.3%	15.5%	2.7%	4.03	3.98	+0.5
2032	26	MLB	LAA	11	11	63	268	64	22	7	100%	5.8	24.0%	8.3%	15.8%	2.7%	3.99	3.96	+0.5
2033	27	MLB	LAA	10	10	62	263	63	22	7	100%	6.2	24.0%	8.3%	15.7%	2.7%	3.99	4.00	+0.4
2034	28	MLB	LAA	10	10	60	255	61	22	7	100%	6.0	23.9%	8.5%	15.4%	2.8%	4.04	4.08	+0.3
2035	29	MLB	LAA	10	10	58	244	58	21	7	100%	5.8	23.7%	8.7%	14.9%	3.0%	4.14	4.21	+0.2
2036	30	MLB	LAA	9	9	54	229	53	21	7	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	3.2%	4.29	4.39	+0.1
2037	31	MLB	LAA	8	8	51	214	49	20	7	100%	6.3	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.4%	4.47	4.59	-0.0
2038	32	MLB	LAA	8	8	47	198	44	19	7	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	3.6%	4.68	4.82	-0.1
2027	21	MLB	LAA	6	6	28	118	25	12	3	100%	4.7	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	2.7%	4.48	4.43	+0.0
2028	22	MLB	LAA	8	8	43	182	40	16	5	100%	5.4	22.1%	9.1%	13.0%	2.7%	4.33	4.23	+0.2
2029	23	MLB	LAA	10	10	52	220	50	19	6	100%	5.2	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.7%	4.19	4.10	+0.3
2030	24	MLB	LAA	10	10	56	236	55	20	6	100%	5.6	23.5%	8.4%	15.0%	2.6%	4.08	4.01	+0.4
2031	25	MLB	LAA	10	10	58	245	58	20	6	100%	5.8	23.8%	8.3%	15.5%	2.6%	4.00	3.95	+0.4
2032	26	MLB	LAA	10	10	59	249	60	21	7	100%	5.9	24.0%	8.3%	15.8%	2.6%	3.96	3.93	+0.4
2033	27	MLB	LAA	10	10	59	249	60	21	7	100%	5.9	24.0%	8.3%	15.7%	2.7%	3.96	3.97	+0.4
2034	28	MLB	LAA	10	10	57	241	58	20	7	100%	5.7	23.9%	8.5%	15.4%	2.8%	4.01	4.05	+0.3
2035	29	MLB	LAA	9	9	55	232	55	20	7	100%	6.1	23.7%	8.7%	14.9%	2.9%	4.11	4.18	+0.2
2036	30	MLB	LAA	9	9	52	220	51	20	7	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	3.1%	4.26	4.36	+0.1
2037	31	MLB	LAA	8	8	48	203	46	19	7	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.3%	4.44	4.56	-0.0
2038	32	MLB	LAA	7	7	44	186	42	18	7	100%	6.3	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	3.6%	4.65	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			106	106	611	2579	601	226	73	100%	5.8	23.3%	8.8%	14.5%	2.8%	4.18	3.80	+11.4
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	197	74	24	100%	5.8	23.3%	8.8%	14.5%	2.8%	4.18	3.80	+3.7
Career	—			34	34	148	614	134	79	11	100%	4.4	21.8%	12.9%	8.8%	1.8%	3.03	3.87	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—			46	46	200	828	180	107	15	100%	4.4	21.8%	12.9%	8.8%	1.8%	3.03	3.87	+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Jordan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	20.2%	10.4%	2.8%	—	4.28	22.1%	12.9%	176	-0.35	—	—	—
John Klein R 2027 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	17.4%	11.4%	2.8%	.287	4.12	20.0%	10.4%	264	-0.47	3.23	317	89
Curtis Taylor R 2028 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	19.3%	9.9%	2.5%	.305	3.42	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.68	2.58	408	89
Bryce Cunningham R 2028 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	19.3%	9.9%	2.4%	.268	5.93	17.4%	2.1%	47	+1.87	4.06	101	88
Chih-Jung Liu R 2028 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.5%	3.4%	.331	6.04	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.32	4.72	283	88
José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.72	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.32	3.08	543	87
Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	87
Silvano Hechavarria R 2027 · 4.23 FIP	21	SP	4.23	20.0%	10.3%	2.8%	.212	4.80	16.2%	5.7%	120	+0.57	3.80	169	86
Drew Anderson R 2028 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP	3.54	21.1%	9.2%	1.9%	.295	4.74	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.20	3.11	506	85
Alec Kisena R 2025 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	248	85
Mike Vasil R 2028 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	21.9%	10.5%	2.0%	.264	4.60	19.1%	9.4%	359	+0.89	3.71	429	85
Eury Rosado R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	20	SP	3.80	17.2%	9.2%	1.8%	.231	5.87	19.2%	5.1%	55	+2.07	3.80	109	85
Chad Patrick R 2029 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	84
Trey Gregory-Alford R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP	4.42	17.8%	11.0%	2.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	145	84
Frank German R 2027 · 5.10 FIP	21	SP	5.10	19.5%	12.4%	3.8%	.308	4.77	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.33	3.16	218	84
Logan Gragg R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	20	SP	4.02	17.4%	9.5%	2.2%	.343	5.04	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.02	4.02	412	84
Marcelo Perez R 2029 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	18.0%	8.6%	2.5%	.288	4.99	14.1%	6.7%	217	+0.97	4.02	285	84
Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	20.3%	11.4%	2.6%	.278	5.40	15.4%	0.3%	159	+1.15	3.89	474	83
Nathanael Perez Lopez R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	20	SP	4.93	16.2%	10.6%	3.4%	.352	6.69	19.4%	7.9%	61	+1.76	2.54	203	83
C.J. Culpepper R 2027 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP	3.52	18.7%	10.1%	1.3%	.291	3.95	19.3%	7.5%	167	+0.43	3.41	253	83
Mason Englert R 2027 · 3.43 FIP	21	SP	3.43	19.5%	9.0%	1.5%	.311	4.67	22.3%	15.1%	249	+1.24	2.77	461	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	58	23.0%	8.9%	1.11	4.25
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Hudson ('24)	9	52	25.5%	8.9%	1.13	3.75
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94
Brad Hand ('23)	9	64	27.2%	8.6%	0.89	3.53