Dylan Jordan

P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#363ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	19	19	76	2.36	2.56	26.7%	9.4%	—	K 18.7% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.82
2026	20	MIX2 levels	22	22	97	4.81	3.39	32.9%	12.7%	—	K 24.5% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.77
2027PROJ	21	MLBLAA	—	—	0	4.92	4.92	23.5%	13.7%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBLAA	7	7	38	4.73	4.62	24.2%	11.9%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBLAA	11	11	57	4.52	4.40	24.8%	10.7%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$5M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 78%

CompsCJ Van Eyk (age 22) · Tanner Burns (age 22) · TJ Shook (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%23.5%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$6M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$14M		$23M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	76	318	85	30	3	100%	4.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	1.5%	2.36	3.82	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	76	318	85	30	3	100%	4.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	1.5%	2.36	3.82	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	76	318	85	30	3	100%	4.0	26.7%	9.4%	17.3%	0.9%	2.36	2.56	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	97	416	137	53	11	100%	4.4	24.5%	14.9%	9.6%	3.4%	4.81	4.77	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	97	416	137	53	11	100%	4.4	24.5%	14.9%	9.6%	3.4%	4.81	4.77	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	97	416	137	53	11	100%	4.4	32.9%	12.7%	20.2%	2.6%	4.81	3.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.5%	13.7%	9.8%	3.1%	4.92	4.92	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	78	330	80	39	10	100%	5.2	24.2%	11.9%	12.4%	3.0%	4.70	4.59	+0.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	78	330	82	35	10	100%	5.2	24.8%	10.7%	14.1%	3.0%	4.49	4.37	+0.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	78	330	83	33	10	100%	5.6	25.2%	10.0%	15.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.23	+1.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	75	315	80	30	9	100%	5.7	25.5%	9.5%	16.0%	2.9%	4.21	4.14	+1.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	75	316	81	30	9	100%	6.2	25.7%	9.5%	16.2%	2.9%	4.15	4.12	+1.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	73	309	80	30	9	100%	6.1	25.7%	9.6%	16.2%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	+1.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	70	295	75	29	9	100%	5.8	25.6%	9.7%	15.9%	3.1%	4.20	4.24	+1.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	65	274	69	27	9	100%	5.9	25.3%	9.9%	15.4%	3.2%	4.30	4.37	+0.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	58	247	62	25	8	100%	5.8	25.0%	10.2%	14.8%	3.4%	4.45	4.55	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	57	241	64	24	9	100%	5.7	26.6%	9.8%	16.8%	3.7%	4.47	4.48	+0.6
2038	32	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	50	210	55	21	8	100%	6.2	26.1%	10.2%	16.0%	3.9%	4.61	4.70	+0.4
2039	33	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	43	180	46	19	8	100%	6.1	25.6%	10.6%	15.0%	4.2%	4.82	4.96	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	38	160	39	19	5	100%	5.4	24.2%	11.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.73	4.62	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	57	241	60	26	7	100%	5.2	24.8%	10.7%	14.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.40	+0.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	65	274	69	27	8	100%	5.4	25.2%	10.0%	15.3%	3.0%	4.36	4.26	+0.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	66	279	71	27	8	100%	6.0	25.5%	9.5%	16.0%	3.0%	4.24	4.17	+1.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	68	287	74	27	9	100%	6.2	25.7%	9.5%	16.2%	3.0%	4.18	4.15	+1.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	68	287	74	27	9	100%	6.2	25.7%	9.6%	16.2%	3.0%	4.18	4.18	+1.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	65	274	70	27	9	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.7%	15.9%	3.1%	4.23	4.27	+0.9
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	62	262	66	26	9	100%	6.2	25.3%	9.9%	15.4%	3.3%	4.34	4.41	+0.7
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	56	236	59	24	8	100%	6.2	25.0%	10.2%	14.8%	3.5%	4.49	4.59	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	54	228	61	22	8	100%	6.0	26.6%	9.8%	16.8%	3.7%	4.51	4.52	+0.6
2038	32	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	47	198	52	20	8	100%	5.9	26.1%	10.2%	16.0%	4.0%	4.65	4.74	+0.4
2039	33	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	41	173	44	18	7	100%	5.9	25.6%	10.6%	15.0%	4.3%	4.87	5.01	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		118	118	687	2900	739	291	95	100%	5.8	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	3.3%	4.41	4.02	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	215	85	28	100%	5.8	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	3.3%	4.41	4.02	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		41	41	174	734	162	99	19	100%	4.2	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	2.6%	3.73	4.35	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	47	200	845	186	114	22	100%	4.2	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	2.6%	3.73	4.35	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 80 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.81 (+1.27)K% 34.1% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.14%	—	×0.740	25.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.78%	—	×1.180	13.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.96%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 17 IPFIP 6.68 → 8.51 (+1.83)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.24%	—	×0.770	21.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.47%	—	×1.150	18.94%
HR / BF /BF	7.06%	÷1.000	×1.250	8.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.68 → 8.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Angels · 48 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.44 (+1.50)K% 26.3% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.680	17.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.05%	—	×1.250	12.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.44%	÷0.873	×1.400	2.30%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AInland Empire 66ers · 29 IPFIP 1.82 → 2.61 (+0.79)K% 27.5% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.52%	—	×0.740	20.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.26%	—	×1.180	9.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.036	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.82 → 2.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Jordan (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.40	24.8%	13.9%	234	-0.52	—	—	—
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	91
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	88
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	87
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	86
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	84
Rick Van Den Hurk R 2007 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP	4.88	21.6%	11.3%	4.0%	.331	4.31	21.2%	12.5%	90	-0.57	3.27	172	84
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	84
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	84
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	83
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	83
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	83
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	82
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	82
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	82
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.08	17.8%	6.3%	296	+0.09	4.14	536	82
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	81
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	81
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.37	20.4%	10.5%	363	-0.47	3.89	479	81
Jack Leiter R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	22	SP	5.05	20.8%	14.5%	3.4%	.309	4.39	24.2%	13.0%	346	-0.66	3.90	519	81
Blake Rivera R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	21	SP	3.85	20.3%	14.5%	1.1%	.298	3.89	19.8%	8.3%	61	+0.04	3.72	179	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	67	25.3%	10.4%	1.24	4.43
Kyle Farnsworth ('14)	4.9	62	22.5%	9.6%	1.20	4.26
Doug Bair ('76-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	76	25.2%*	10.4%*	1.22*	4.12*
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*