Jack Leiter
P
Texas Rangers
+1.2
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.3 · 2026
ERA4.68
FIP4.52
xFIP3.80
SIERA3.77
K%23.3%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%13.0%
IP144
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p8296.8
Whiff%
p8831.2%
K%
p7025.9%
xwOBA vs
p160.352
FB+2.9 (46%)
CT+1.1 (9%)
SI (6%)
CU (7%)
CH-2.0 (19%)
SL-2.1 (18%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 23 | 22 | 93 | 425 | 109 | 56 | 11 | 20.8% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 5.54 | 5.06 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 20 | 20 | 85 | 371 | 114 | 49 | 16 | 25.4% | 14.7% | 4.9% | 5.19 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 26 | 22 | 113 | 503 | 141 | 52 | 17 | 25.4% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 4.34 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 30 | 30 | 156 | 661 | 152 | 68 | 18 | 22.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 3.74 | 4.05 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 4 | 4 | 20 | 90 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 26.7% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 114 | 480 | 123 | 49 | 16 | 25.7% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.32 | 4.03 | +1.6 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 134 | 570 | 147 | 58 | 19 | 25.8% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.02 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 23 | 23 | 128 | 539 | 139 | 56 | 18 | 25.7% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.42 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 129 | 52 | 17 | 25.7% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 115 | 48 | 15 | 25.2% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.50 | 4.52 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 102 | 44 | 14 | 24.6% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.57 | 4.61 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 89 | 40 | 13 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 78 | 330 | 84 | 33 | 12 | 25.4% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 4.56 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 73 | 30 | 11 | 24.8% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 62 | 27 | 10 | 24.1% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 53 | 24 | 9 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 4.89 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 45 | 22 | 8 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | 5.04 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 103 | 98 | 467 | 2050 | 486 | 248 | 73 | 23.7% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.59 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 42 | 200 | 878 | 208 | 106 | 31 | 23.7% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.59 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Leiter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 25.2% | 10.4% | 3.3% | — | 4.46 | 25.5% | 15.1% | 355 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.07 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .281 | 4.62 | 19.4% | 5.3% | 328 | +0.55 | 3.32 | 537 | 76 |
| Carlos Pimentel R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.37 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .339 | 4.57 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 13 | +0.20 | 4.37 | 301 | 74 |
| Connor Noland R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.08 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .303 | 6.06 | 13.0% | 4.4% | 14 | +1.98 | 4.01 | 388 | 73 |
| Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.69 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 278 | 72 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2025 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.91 | 14.8% | 6.5% | 2.3% | .264 | 3.75 | 23.7% | 18.5% | 68 | -0.16 | 3.75 | 284 | 72 |
| Nate Long R 2029 · 4.69 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.69 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 151 | 71 |
| Lindsey Caughel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.49 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 3.3% | .276 | 5.13 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 29 | +0.64 | 4.49 | 187 | 71 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.42 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .282 | 4.34 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.92 | 3.42 | 355 | 70 |
| Rafael Montero R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.94 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .339 | 3.53 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.41 | 2.40 | 643 | 70 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.79 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 1.2% | .277 | 4.94 | 14.9% | 5.0% | 55 | +1.15 | 3.79 | 254 | 69 |
| Shao-Ching Chiang R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 18.8% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 575 | 69 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.00 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 498 | 69 |
| Riley Gowens R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.35 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 254 | 69 |
| Alex Klonowski R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.27 | 14.7% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .326 | 6.15 | 8.6% | 0.0% | 62 | +1.88 | 3.58 | 539 | 69 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.84 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 4.3% | .284 | 3.98 | 25.2% | 16.0% | 71 | -0.86 | 3.95 | 281 | 69 |
| Yordano Ventura R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.51 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 349 | 68 |
| Tyler Cravy R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .305 | 4.61 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 138 | +0.61 | 3.95 | 276 | 68 |
| Chase Anderson R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.07 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .296 | 4.40 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.33 | 3.30 | 1,146 | 68 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.27 | 15.7% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 4.66 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 287 | +0.39 | 3.15 | 678 | 68 |
| Chi Chi González R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.92 | 16.7% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 4.54 | 15.3% | 7.8% | 225 | -0.38 | 4.02 | 800 | 67 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.192 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.3 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.3 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.2 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +1.0 | $9M | +$5M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $10M | $43M | +$33M | ||