Jack Leiter — OGILVIE

Jack Leiter P Texas Rangers

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.6 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION87 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.25

FIP4.13

K%23.7%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8196.7

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

FB+2.9 (46%)

CT+1.1 (10%)

SI (7%)

CU (9%)

CH-2.0 (17%)

SL-2.1 (18%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.192 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$3M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$0.5M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	23	22	93	425	109	56	11	96%	4.0	20.8%	14.5%	6.3%	3.4%	5.54	5.05	—
2022	22	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	23	22	93	425	109	56	11	96%	4.0	25.6%	13.2%	12.5%	2.6%	5.54	4.10	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	85	371	114	49	16	100%	4.2	25.4%	14.7%	10.7%	4.9%	5.19	5.52	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	85	371	114	49	16	100%	4.2	25.4%	14.7%	10.7%	4.9%	5.19	5.52	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	85	371	114	49	16	100%	4.2	30.7%	13.2%	17.5%	4.3%	5.19	4.59	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	113	503	141	52	17	85%	4.3	24.3%	9.6%	14.7%	3.7%	5.19	4.27	+0.8
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	113	503	141	52	17	85%	4.3	24.3%	9.6%	14.7%	3.7%	5.19	4.27	+0.8
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	113	503	141	52	17	85%	4.3	28.0%	10.3%	17.7%	3.4%	5.19	3.94	+1.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	156	661	152	68	18	100%	5.2	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	2.6%	3.74	3.90	+1.9
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	156	661	152	68	18	100%	5.2	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	2.6%	3.74	3.90	+1.9
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	156	661	152	68	18	100%	5.2	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	2.7%	3.74	3.96	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			53	50	267	1174	262	119	39	94%	5.0	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.3%	4.95	4.37	+1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	18	17	87	387	92	38	15	94%	4.8	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.7%	5.61	4.39	+0.5
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	18	17	87	387	92	38	15	94%	4.8	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.7%	5.61	4.39	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	TEX	1	1	3	15	5	2	1	100%	3.0	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	6.7%	12.00	5.63	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	TEX	2	1	4	17	4	1	0	50%	1.9	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	0.0%	7.36	1.86	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	TEX	15	15	80	355	83	35	14	100%	5.3	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.9%	5.29	4.54	+0.3
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	TEX	15	15	80	355	83	35	14	100%	5.3	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.9%	5.29	4.54	+0.3
ROS	26	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	4	17	4	2	1	100%	4.1	23.7%	10.2%	13.4%	3.2%	4.25	4.13	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	TEX	1	1	4	17	4	2	1	100%	4.0	23.7%	10.2%	13.4%	3.4%	4.38	4.26	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	91	404	96	40	16	—	—	23.8%	9.8%	13.9%	3.8%	5.55	4.38	+0.5
FULL	26	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	84	355	96	40	16	—	—	27.1%	11.2%	15.9%	4.4%	5.99	4.64	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TEX	25	25	150	635	151	65	22	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.3%	13.4%	3.5%	4.73	4.69	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	25	25	150	635	150	66	23	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.5%	13.2%	3.6%	4.76	4.78	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	TEX	24	24	144	606	140	65	23	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	3.7%	4.87	4.94	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	135	570	127	63	22	100%	6.1	22.3%	11.0%	11.3%	3.9%	5.04	5.15	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	TEX	24	24	143	604	143	62	23	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.3%	13.4%	3.7%	4.87	4.83	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	24	24	143	604	143	63	23	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.5%	13.2%	3.9%	4.91	4.93	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	TEX	23	23	136	574	132	61	23	100%	5.9	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	4.0%	5.02	5.09	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	TEX	21	21	128	540	121	59	23	100%	6.1	22.3%	11.0%	11.3%	4.2%	5.20	5.31	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		146	143	822	3515	805	367	131	98%	5.6	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	3.7%	4.98	4.54	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	855	196	89	32	98%	5.6	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	3.7%	4.98	4.54	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		117	111	533	2347	547	271	82	95%	4.6	23.3%	11.6%	11.7%	3.5%	4.89	4.52	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	880	205	102	31	95%	4.6	23.3%	11.6%	11.7%	3.5%	4.89	4.52	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Leiter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	24.2%	10.6%	3.1%	—	4.80	23.5%	13.0%	444	+0.33	—	—	—
Kevin Gausman R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	26	SP	4.11	21.9%	8.7%	3.2%	.333	3.76	23.2%	16.8%	346	-0.35	2.34	1,930	71
Danny Salazar R 2016 · 3.58 FIP	26	SP	3.58	27.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.303	3.34	33.0%	23.0%	103	-0.24	3.34	425	71
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	70
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	70
Louis Varland R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	22.7%	6.4%	3.9%	.309	3.34	25.0%	18.0%	279	-0.78	1.69	684	70
Dinelson Lamet R 2017 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP	3.80	28.1%	11.2%	3.0%	.270	3.02	33.6%	25.2%	157	-0.78	2.11	778	69
Mike Clevinger R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	26	SP-	3.64	26.5%	11.3%	2.5%	.274	3.11	28.3%	20.3%	368	-0.53	2.28	1,236	69
José Ureña R 2018 · 3.86 FIP	26	SP	3.86	18.3%	6.0%	2.8%	.262	4.78	15.5%	7.2%	209	+0.92	3.86	1,251	68
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	68
Julian Merryweather R 2017 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	19.4%	6.6%	2.7%	.330	2.18	27.3%	16.4%	13	-1.61	2.18	547	68
Trevor Bauer R 2017 · 3.74 FIP	26	SP	3.74	26.2%	8.0%	3.4%	.333	2.96	30.2%	22.2%	461	-0.78	2.16	1,111	67
Jeff Hoffman R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	26	SP	5.25	21.8%	8.8%	5.2%	.321	4.16	23.2%	12.1%	154	-1.09	1.96	1,067	67
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	67
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	67
Hiram Burgos R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SP	3.40	19.7%	9.5%	1.4%	.282	4.34	17.2%	8.6%	206	+0.94	3.40	355	67
Yordano Ventura R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	17.6%	9.4%	3.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	349	67
Brady Feigl R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	25	SP	5.26	19.4%	9.6%	4.7%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	257	66
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	66
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	20.9%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.85	20.0%	13.6%	140	-0.63	2.39	485	66
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.16	17.5%	7.3%	304	+1.22	3.61	547	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	143	23.4%	10.6%	1.38	4.80
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94