Jack Leiter
P
Texas Rangers
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.5 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.41
FIP4.32
K%23.8%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8196.7
Whiff%
p5125.4%
K%
p5723.4%
xwOBA vs
p290.337
FB+2.9 (46%)
CT+1.1 (10%)
SI (7%)
CU (9%)
CH-2.0 (17%)
SL-2.1 (18%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 23 | 22 | 93 | 425 | 109 | 56 | 11 | 96% | 4.0 | 20.8% | 14.5% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 5.54 | 5.24 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 23 | 22 | 93 | 425 | 109 | 56 | 11 | 96% | 4.0 | 25.6% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 5.54 | 4.10 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 85 | 371 | 114 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 4.2 | 25.4% | 14.7% | 10.7% | 5.0% | 5.19 | 5.59 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 85 | 371 | 114 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 4.2 | 30.7% | 13.2% | 17.5% | 4.3% | 5.19 | 4.59 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 113 | 503 | 141 | 52 | 17 | 85% | 4.3 | 25.4% | 10.7% | 14.7% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 113 | 503 | 141 | 52 | 17 | 85% | 4.3 | 28.0% | 10.3% | 17.7% | 3.4% | 5.19 | 3.94 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 156 | 661 | 152 | 68 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.9% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 3.97 | +2.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 156 | 661 | 152 | 68 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.0% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 3.96 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 15 | 15 | 80 | 355 | 83 | 35 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.4% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 5.29 | 4.54 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 56 | 238 | 57 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 3.5% | 4.41 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 56 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 3.5% | 4.43 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 136 | 593 | 140 | 60 | 22 | — | — | 23.5% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 3.8% | 4.92 | 4.45 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 136 | 576 | 140 | 60 | 22 | — | — | 24.2% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 3.9% | 4.93 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 25 | 150 | 635 | 151 | 66 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.73 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 25 | 150 | 635 | 151 | 67 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 4.82 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 24 | 24 | 144 | 606 | 140 | 65 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 4.90 | 4.98 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 128 | 63 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 5.07 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 115 | 61 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 5.28 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 144 | 63 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 4.75 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 143 | 64 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.85 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 133 | 62 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 4.93 | 5.01 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 121 | 60 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 5.10 | 5.22 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 110 | 58 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 5.31 | 5.45 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 175 | 172 | 994 | 4241 | 969 | 450 | 157 | 98% | 5.7 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 4.55 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 854 | 195 | 91 | 32 | 98% | 5.7 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 114 | 109 | 527 | 2315 | 545 | 274 | 86 | 96% | 4.6 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 4.84 | 4.66 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 41 | 200 | 879 | 207 | 104 | 33 | 96% | 4.6 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 4.84 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Leiter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 3.2% | — | 4.84 | 23.6% | 13.0% | 444 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Nate Karns R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 71 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.94 | 28.1% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .270 | 3.19 | 33.6% | 25.2% | 157 | -0.75 | 2.21 | 778 | 70 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.73 | 21.5% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.96 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 65 | +1.23 | 3.73 | 540 | 70 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.49 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .282 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.93 | 3.49 | 355 | 68 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 68 |
| Kevin Gausman R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .333 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.8% | 346 | -0.38 | 2.34 | 1,876 | 67 |
| Trevor Bauer R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.75 | 26.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .333 | 2.99 | 30.2% | 22.2% | 461 | -0.76 | 2.16 | 1,111 | 67 |
| Julian Merryweather R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.60 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .330 | 2.18 | 27.3% | 16.4% | 13 | -1.42 | 2.18 | 530 | 67 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 67 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.55 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 3.8% | .284 | 4.01 | 25.2% | 16.0% | 71 | -0.54 | 3.97 | 281 | 66 |
| Cade Cavalli R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .343 | 2.90 | 25.4% | 18.0% | 99 | -1.33 | 2.85 | 433 | 66 |
| Shao-Ching Chiang R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.75 | 18.8% | 10.0% | 3.6% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 575 | 66 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.78 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .290 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 95 | -1.21 | 2.38 | 434 | 66 |
| José Ureña R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.87 | 18.3% | 6.0% | 2.8% | .262 | 4.82 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 209 | +0.95 | 3.87 | 1,251 | 66 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.76 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .297 | 3.91 | 20.5% | 12.1% | 73 | +0.15 | 3.76 | 537 | 65 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 65 |
| Rico Garcia R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.16 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .299 | 5.05 | 25.0% | 14.6% | 35 | +0.89 | 3.21 | 566 | 65 |
| Mike Clevinger R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.60 | 26.5% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .274 | 3.13 | 28.3% | 20.3% | 368 | -0.47 | 2.28 | 1,227 | 65 |
| Danny Salazar R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.58 | 27.6% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.34 | 33.0% | 23.0% | 103 | -0.24 | 3.34 | 425 | 65 |
| Riley O'Brien R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.41 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .258 | 3.30 | 26.5% | 12.3% | 108 | -1.11 | 2.45 | 559 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 140 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 1.44 | 4.89 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |