Jack Leiter

P Texas Rangers

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.8 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	26	22	113	5.19	3.94	28.0%	10.3%	2.0	K 25.0% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.22
2025	25	MIX2 levels	30	30	156	3.74	3.96	23.0%	10.3%	2.7	K 22.9% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.90
2026	26	MIX3 levels	18	17	87	5.61	4.54	23.8%	9.8%	0.9	K 23.4% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.39
2027PROJ	27	MLBTEX	7	7	41	4.67	4.53	24.3%	10.3%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBTEX	12	12	75	4.78	4.76	24.1%	10.5%	0.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBTEX	12	12	69	4.86	4.92	23.6%	10.7%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.192First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$1M2029Arb-2$2M2030Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo81

K%57

xwOBA vs29

CompsZack Wheeler (age 27) · Austin Bergner (age 27) · Gavin Williams (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.67

FIP4.53

K%24.3%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8196.7

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.192 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2028	Arb-1	$1M	+0.7	$3M	+$1M
2029	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	23	22	93	425	109	56	11	96%	4.0	20.8%	14.5%	6.3%	3.4%	5.54	5.05	—
2022	22	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	23	22	93	425	109	56	11	96%	4.0	25.6%	13.2%	12.5%	2.6%	5.54	4.10	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	85	371	114	49	16	100%	4.2	25.4%	14.7%	10.7%	4.9%	5.19	5.52	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	85	371	114	49	16	100%	4.2	30.7%	13.2%	17.5%	4.3%	5.19	4.59	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	113	503	141	52	17	85%	4.3	25.0%	9.6%	15.3%	3.7%	5.19	4.22	+1.6
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	113	503	141	52	17	85%	4.3	25.0%	9.6%	15.3%	3.7%	5.19	4.22	+1.6
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	113	503	141	52	17	85%	4.3	28.0%	10.3%	17.7%	3.4%	5.19	3.94	+2.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	156	661	152	68	18	100%	5.2	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	2.6%	3.74	3.90	+2.8
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	156	661	152	68	18	100%	5.2	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	2.6%	3.74	3.90	+2.8
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	156	661	152	68	18	100%	5.2	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	2.7%	3.74	3.96	+2.7
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	87	387	92	38	15	94%	4.8	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.7%	5.61	4.39	+1.0
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	87	387	92	38	15	94%	4.8	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.7%	5.61	4.39	+1.0
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	17	87	387	92	38	15	94%	4.8	23.8%	9.8%	14.0%	3.9%	5.61	4.54	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			53	50	267	1174	262	119	39	94%	5.0	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.3%	4.95	4.37	+3.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TEX	7	7	41	173	42	18	6	100%	5.9	24.3%	10.3%	13.9%	3.3%	4.67	4.53	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	79	334	81	35	11	100%	6.1	24.1%	10.5%	13.7%	3.4%	4.64	4.62	+0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	73	308	73	33	11	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.7%	12.8%	3.5%	4.72	4.78	+0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	62	263	60	29	10	100%	6.2	22.9%	11.0%	11.8%	3.7%	4.88	4.99	+0.3
2031	31	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	50	209	46	24	8	100%	6.2	22.1%	11.4%	10.7%	3.9%	5.08	5.22	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	75	317	76	33	11	100%	6.2	24.1%	10.5%	13.7%	3.6%	4.78	4.76	+0.7
2029	29	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	69	291	69	31	11	100%	5.8	23.6%	10.7%	12.8%	3.8%	4.86	4.92	+0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	59	249	57	27	10	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.0%	11.8%	4.0%	5.03	5.14	+0.3
2031	31	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	47	198	44	23	8	100%	5.9	22.1%	11.4%	10.7%	4.2%	5.24	5.38	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	92	518	2233	509	234	80	97%	5.5	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	3.6%	4.95	4.47	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	862	197	90	31	97%	5.5	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	3.6%	4.95	4.47	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		117	111	533	2347	550	271	82	95%	4.6	23.4%	11.6%	11.9%	3.5%	4.89	4.51	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	880	206	102	31	95%	4.6	23.4%	11.6%	11.9%	3.5%	4.89	4.51	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 77 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.86 (+0.57)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.61%	—	×0.900	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.928	×1.100	3.59%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 82 IPFIP 4.34 → 5.52 (+1.18)K% 31.3% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.34%	—	×0.810	25.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.39%	—	×1.100	14.73%
HR / BF /BF	3.99%	÷0.974	×1.200	4.91%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 4.34 → 5.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARound Rock Express · 3 IPFIP 8.17 → 8.62 (+0.46)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	10.00%	÷1.035	×1.100	10.63%

Result: FIP 8.17 → 8.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 93 IPFIP 4.02 → 5.05 (+1.02)K% 25.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.65%	—	×0.810	20.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.18%	—	×1.100	14.49%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷0.915	×1.200	3.40%

Result: FIP 4.02 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Leiter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	24.3%	10.3%	3.3%	—	4.78	23.6%	12.8%	214	+0.25	—	—	—
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,890	67
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	63
Gavin Williams R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	24.7%	9.8%	2.3%	.317	3.83	29.1%	19.2%	352	+0.29	3.39	697	63
Ross Ohlendorf R 2010 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP	4.31	16.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.275	4.60	16.6%	9.3%	148	+0.29	3.30	617	63
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	63
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	62
Alex Meyer R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	27	SP	3.99	25.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	230	62
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	62
Rubby De La Rosa R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP-	4.09	24.3%	8.6%	3.6%	.248	4.13	27.6%	18.3%	42	+0.04	3.75	455	62
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	62
Tanner Houck R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	27	SP	4.12	21.4%	8.9%	3.1%	.291	3.57	19.6%	12.8%	233	-0.55	2.27	733	62
Frankie Montas R 2020 · 4.74 FIP	27	SP	4.74	25.3%	9.7%	4.6%	.326	3.39	25.2%	18.3%	331	-1.35	2.82	1,009	62
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	61
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	61
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	61
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	61
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	60
Adrian Houser R 2020 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	17.9%	8.5%	3.1%	.318	3.96	17.6%	8.3%	371	-0.41	3.45	1,221	60
Louis Varland R 2024 · 4.42 FIP	26	SP-	4.42	21.7%	7.2%	4.1%	.329	2.31	28.6%	21.4%	151	-2.11	1.70	689	60
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	72	22.9%	10.5%	1.33	4.86
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64
Steve Wilson ('88-'93, 0 WAR*)	1.7	69	21.6%*	8.8%*	1.25*	4.84*
Bobby Ayala ('99)	2.9	72	21.3%	9.7%	1.11	4.78
Manny Parra ('15)	3.1	78	20.8%	10.6%	1.00	4.90