Tanner Houck
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 226 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.9 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 104 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 112
ERA4.41
FIP4.34
K%19.7%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP104
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1015.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.376
SI (40%)
FB-3.1 (46%)
SL-6.2 (35%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 23 | 23 | 119 | 519 | 111 | 60 | 11 | 100% | 5.2 | 16.5% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 5.06 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 23 | 23 | 119 | 519 | 111 | 60 | 11 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.4% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 4.24 | 3.95 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 17 | 108 | 475 | 107 | 46 | 7 | 52% | 3.3 | 18.6% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 1.8% | 4.01 | 3.82 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 17 | 108 | 475 | 107 | 46 | 7 | 52% | 3.3 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 1.5% | 4.01 | 3.24 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 3 | 3 | 17 | 63 | 21 | 9 | 1 | 100% | 5.7 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 19.0% | 1.6% | 0.53 | 2.96 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 3 | 3 | 17 | 63 | 21 | 9 | 1 | 100% | 5.7 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 19.0% | 1.6% | 0.53 | 2.98 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 19 | 90 | 375 | 113 | 27 | 5 | 79% | 3.8 | 29.3% | 7.3% | 22.0% | 1.2% | 3.90 | 2.23 | +3.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 19 | 90 | 375 | 113 | 27 | 5 | 79% | 3.8 | 30.1% | 7.2% | 22.9% | 1.3% | 3.90 | 2.21 | +3.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 4 | 60 | 247 | 56 | 19 | 3 | 12% | 1.9 | 22.7% | 7.7% | 15.0% | 1.2% | 3.15 | 2.82 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 4 | 60 | 247 | 56 | 19 | 3 | 12% | 1.9 | 22.7% | 7.7% | 15.0% | 1.2% | 3.15 | 2.83 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 115 | 498 | 109 | 44 | 14 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.4% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.06 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 115 | 498 | 109 | 44 | 14 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 3.94 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 30 | 30 | 179 | 743 | 154 | 47 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 6.3% | 14.4% | 1.5% | 3.12 | 2.96 | +5.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 30 | 30 | 179 | 743 | 154 | 47 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 6.3% | 14.4% | 1.5% | 3.12 | 2.97 | +5.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 13 | 59 | 277 | 47 | 23 | 12 | 93% | 4.2 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 7.43 | 5.47 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 13 | 59 | 277 | 47 | 23 | 12 | 93% | 4.2 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 7.43 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 54 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 90 | 381 | 72 | 30 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.57 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 83 | 352 | 64 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.83 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 76 | 323 | 62 | 26 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 70 | 294 | 54 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.4% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 5.00 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 72 | 30 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.58 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 63 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.84 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 62 | 26 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 54 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.4% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 5.01 | 5.15 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 166 | 133 | 794 | 3354 | 701 | 263 | 90 | 80% | 4.8 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 3.80 | +14.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 34 | 200 | 845 | 177 | 66 | 23 | 80% | 4.8 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 3.80 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 183 | 133 | 746 | 3197 | 666 | 290 | 72 | 73% | 4.1 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 2.2% | 4.06 | 3.72 | +14.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 36 | 200 | 857 | 179 | 78 | 19 | 73% | 4.1 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 2.2% | 4.06 | 3.72 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Houck (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 19.7% | 7.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.74 | 18.8% | 10.7% | 250 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 59 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 59 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 58 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 58 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 57 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 57 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 56 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 54 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.42 | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.4% | .266 | 3.59 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 154 | +0.17 | 3.42 | 214 | 54 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 53 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 53 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 53 |
| Danny Gutierrez R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 15.1% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .362 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 239 | 53 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 52 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 52 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 52 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 52 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2029 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 52 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 52 |
| Michael Bowden R 2024 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.25 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 141 | 51 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 77 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.29 | 4.68 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |