Tanner Houck — OGILVIE

Tanner Houck P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 226 lbs AA Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.1 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 104 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.43

FIP4.36

K%19.6%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP104

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p1015.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.376

SI (40%)

FB-3.1 (46%)

SL-6.2 (35%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2020

Service 4.581 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$0.3M
2027	Arb-3	$6M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.3M		$1M	-$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	23	23	119	519	111	60	11	100%	5.2	16.5%	13.3%	3.2%	2.8%	4.24	4.95	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	23	23	119	519	111	60	11	100%	5.2	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	2.1%	4.24	3.95	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	17	108	475	107	46	7	52%	3.3	18.6%	10.5%	8.1%	1.7%	4.01	3.81	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	17	108	475	107	46	7	52%	3.3	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	1.5%	4.01	3.24	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	3	3	17	63	21	9	1	100%	5.7	33.3%	14.3%	19.0%	1.6%	0.53	2.99	+0.4
2020	24	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	3	3	17	63	21	9	1	100%	5.7	33.3%	14.3%	19.0%	1.6%	0.53	2.98	+0.4
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	90	375	113	27	5	79%	3.8	29.3%	7.3%	22.0%	1.3%	3.90	2.27	+3.0
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	90	375	113	27	5	79%	3.8	30.1%	7.2%	22.9%	1.3%	3.90	2.21	+3.1
2022	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	4	60	247	56	19	3	12%	1.9	22.7%	7.7%	15.0%	1.2%	3.15	2.84	+1.2
2022	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	32	4	60	247	56	19	3	12%	1.9	22.7%	7.7%	15.0%	1.2%	3.15	2.83	+1.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	498	109	44	14	100%	4.8	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.1%	4.79	4.12	+1.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	498	109	44	14	100%	4.8	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.1%	4.79	4.12	+1.1
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	115	498	109	44	14	100%	4.8	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	2.8%	4.79	3.94	+1.3
2024	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	30	30	179	743	154	47	11	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.3%	14.4%	1.5%	3.12	2.98	+4.3
2024	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	30	30	179	743	154	47	11	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.3%	14.4%	1.5%	3.12	2.98	+4.3
2024	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	30	30	179	743	154	47	11	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.3%	14.4%	1.5%	3.12	2.97	+4.4
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	59	277	47	23	12	93%	4.2	15.9%	8.7%	7.3%	4.8%	7.43	5.51	-0.4
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	59	277	47	23	12	93%	4.2	15.9%	8.7%	7.3%	4.8%	7.43	5.51	-0.4
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	13	59	277	47	23	12	93%	4.2	17.0%	8.3%	8.7%	4.3%	7.43	5.31	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			113	80	474	2004	449	153	43	71%	4.2	22.4%	7.6%	14.8%	2.1%	3.97	3.35	+8.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	2	0	4	14	4	3	0	0%	1.8	—	—	—	—	4.91	—	—
YTD	30	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	2	0	4	14	4	3	0	0%	1.8	—	—	—	—	4.91	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AA RAW	BOS	2	0	4	14	4	3	0	0%	1.9	28.6%	21.4%	7.1%	0.0%	4.91	3.40	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	90	381	72	30	12	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.1%	4.53	4.59	+0.3
2028	32	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	83	352	64	29	12	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.2%	9.9%	3.4%	4.72	4.85	+0.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	76	323	62	25	12	100%	5.9	19.2%	7.9%	11.4%	3.7%	4.80	4.86	+0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	90	380	72	30	12	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.1%	4.49	4.55	+0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	83	350	63	29	12	100%	5.9	18.1%	8.2%	9.9%	3.3%	4.67	4.80	+0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	76	321	62	25	11	100%	5.8	19.2%	7.9%	11.4%	3.6%	4.75	4.81	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	122	724	3060	647	237	78	79%	4.7	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	2.5%	4.19	3.69	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	34	200	845	179	65	22	79%	4.7	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	2.5%	4.19	3.69	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		185	133	750	3211	670	292	72	72%	4.1	20.9%	9.1%	11.7%	2.2%	4.07	3.72	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	35	200	856	179	78	19	72%	4.1	20.9%	9.1%	11.7%	2.2%	4.07	3.72	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Houck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	19.6%	7.5%	2.9%	—	4.76	18.7%	10.8%	250	+0.40	—	—	—
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	493	63
Matt Harvey R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	30	SP	5.21	18.1%	10.2%	4.3%	.299	5.13	16.2%	8.6%	194	-0.08	2.90	806	63
Anthony DeSclafani R 2020 · 5.30 FIP	30	SP-	5.30	15.8%	10.1%	4.1%	.309	3.92	21.0%	15.4%	286	-1.38	3.38	981	63
Chi Chi González R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.6%	8.0%	3.0%	.315	5.36	10.8%	5.2%	122	+1.06	4.01	800	60
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	60
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	58
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	58
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	58
JC Ramírez R 2019 · 5.48 FIP	30	SP-	5.48	12.2%	10.1%	3.9%	.309	6.17	15.7%	1.7%	35	+0.69	3.75	369	57
Collin McHugh R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SP	3.60	21.0%	7.2%	2.5%	.309	3.35	29.5%	21.0%	147	-0.25	1.77	806	57
Garrett Richards R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	30	SP	3.99	26.9%	10.5%	3.3%	.276	4.36	19.4%	10.3%	188	+0.37	2.31	577	57
Ricky Nolasco R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	32	SP	3.22	20.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.382	4.41	17.9%	11.7%	379	+1.19	3.22	425	57
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	56
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	676	55
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	55
Phil Hughes R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP	4.95	13.1%	5.0%	4.2%	.323	5.38	17.7%	12.7%	86	+0.43	4.62	301	55
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	55
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	54
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	54
Nate Karns R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	29	SP	4.46	27.1%	6.4%	5.2%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	287	54

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	85	19.0%	7.8%	1.26	4.61
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78