Tanner Houck

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 31 RHP 6'5" / 226 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MLBBOS	30	30	179	3.12	2.97	20.7%	6.3%	5.5
2025	29	MIX3 levels	14	13	59	7.43	5.31	17.0%	8.3%	0.1	K 16.1% · BB 8.7% · FIP 5.50
2026	30	MIX3 levels	5	1	11	4.91	5.92	23.3%	9.3%	-0.2	K 23.3% · BB 9.3% · FIP 6.14
2027PROJ	31	MLBBOS	10	10	57	4.44	4.52	19.1%	7.6%	0.6
2028PROJ	32	MLBBOS	8	8	49	4.64	4.77	18.3%	8.0%	0.4
2029PROJ	33	MLBBOS	6	6	36	4.89	5.05	17.5%	8.4%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo57

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Daisuke Matsuzaka (age 31) · Elian Leyva (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA4.44

FIP4.52

K%19.1%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p1015.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.376

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	23	23	119	519	111	60	11	100%	5.2	16.5%	13.3%	3.2%	2.8%	4.24	4.95	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	23	23	119	519	111	60	11	100%	5.2	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	2.1%	4.24	3.95	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	17	108	475	107	46	7	52%	3.3	18.6%	10.5%	8.1%	1.7%	4.01	3.81	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	17	108	475	107	46	7	52%	3.3	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	1.5%	4.01	3.24	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	3	3	17	63	21	9	1	100%	5.7	33.3%	14.3%	19.0%	1.6%	0.53	2.99	+0.5
2020	24	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	3	3	17	63	21	9	1	100%	5.7	33.3%	14.3%	19.0%	1.6%	0.53	2.98	+0.5
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	90	375	113	27	5	79%	3.8	29.3%	7.3%	22.0%	1.3%	3.90	2.27	+3.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	90	375	113	27	5	79%	3.8	30.1%	7.2%	22.9%	1.3%	3.90	2.21	+3.6
2022	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	4	60	247	56	19	3	12%	1.9	22.7%	7.7%	15.0%	1.2%	3.15	2.84	+1.2
2022	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	32	4	60	247	56	19	3	12%	1.9	22.7%	7.7%	15.0%	1.2%	3.15	2.83	+1.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	498	109	44	14	100%	4.8	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.1%	4.79	4.12	+1.7
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	115	498	109	44	14	100%	4.8	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	2.8%	4.79	3.94	+2.0
2024	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	30	30	179	743	154	47	11	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.3%	14.4%	1.5%	3.12	2.98	+5.4
2024	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	30	30	179	743	154	47	11	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.3%	14.4%	1.5%	3.12	2.98	+5.4
2024	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	30	30	179	743	154	47	11	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.3%	14.4%	1.5%	3.12	2.97	+5.5
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	59	277	47	23	12	93%	4.2	16.1%	8.7%	7.4%	4.8%	7.43	5.50	-0.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	59	277	47	23	12	93%	4.2	16.1%	8.7%	7.4%	4.8%	7.43	5.50	-0.1
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	13	59	277	47	23	12	93%	4.2	17.0%	8.3%	8.7%	4.3%	7.43	5.31	+0.1
2026	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	1	11	43	10	4	3	20%	2.2	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	7.0%	4.91	6.14	-0.2
2026	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	1	11	43	10	4	3	20%	2.2	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	7.0%	4.91	6.14	-0.2
2026	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	5	1	11	43	10	4	3	20%	2.2	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	7.0%	4.91	5.92	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			114	81	477	2017	450	153	45	71%	4.2	22.3%	7.6%	14.7%	2.2%	4.00	3.40	+11.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	BOS	10	10	57	241	46	18	7	100%	5.7	19.1%	7.6%	11.5%	3.1%	4.44	4.52	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	49	206	38	16	7	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.0%	10.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.77	+0.4
2029	33	MLB MLE	BOS	6	6	36	152	27	13	5	100%	6.0	17.5%	8.4%	9.0%	3.6%	4.89	5.05	+0.1
2030	34	MLB MLE	BOS	4	4	24	102	17	9	4	100%	6.0	16.6%	8.9%	7.6%	3.9%	5.17	5.36	+0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	49	207	38	17	7	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.0%	10.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.77	+0.4
2029	33	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	36	152	27	13	5	100%	6.0	17.5%	8.4%	9.0%	3.6%	4.89	5.05	+0.1
2030	34	MLB CTX	BOS	4	4	24	101	17	9	4	100%	6.0	16.6%	8.9%	7.6%	3.9%	5.17	5.36	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	99	586	2478	531	191	61	75%	4.4	21.4%	7.7%	13.7%	2.5%	4.15	3.63	+12.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	34	200	845	181	65	21	75%	4.4	21.4%	7.7%	13.7%	2.5%	4.15	3.63	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		188	134	757	3240	676	293	75	71%	4.0	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	2.3%	4.08	3.76	+12.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	35	200	856	178	77	20	71%	4.0	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	2.3%	4.08	3.76	+4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 11 IPFIP 4.79 → 5.12 (+0.33)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.91%	—	×0.900	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷0.984	×1.100	4.06%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 4.79 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 9 IPFIP 1.77 → 2.00 (+0.23)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.860	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×0.900	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.008	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.77 → 2.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 21 IPFIP 2.26 → 2.50 (+0.24)K% 28.9% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.89%	—	×0.880	25.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.78%	—	×1.050	8.17%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷1.318	×1.100	0.93%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 164).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 2.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 83 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.58 (+0.62)K% 22.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.10%	—	×0.810	17.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.84%	—	×1.100	9.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷0.953	×1.200	1.39%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 25 IPFIP 4.11 → 4.52 (+0.41)K% 23.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.89%	—	×0.880	21.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.39%	—	×1.050	13.01%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.038	×1.100	2.81%

Result: FIP 4.11 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Salem Red Sox · 119 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.95 (+1.02)K% 21.4% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.39%	—	×0.770	16.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.56%	—	×1.150	13.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷0.936	×1.250	2.83%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Houck (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.99	17.7%	9.3%	109	+0.47	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	64
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 2012 · 5.55 FIP	31	SP	5.55	19.1%	9.3%	5.2%	.329	3.83	21.1%	9.5%	122	-1.72	3.77	790	63
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	63
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	60
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	60
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	59
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	59
Ariel Prieto R 2000 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP-	4.24	12.8%	8.8%	2.0%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	340	58
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	58
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	58
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	58
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	55
Seth Greisinger R 2004 · 5.38 FIP	29	SP-	5.38	15.5%	6.0%	5.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	219	55
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	55
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	55
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	55
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	54
Hideki Irabu R 2000 · 4.38 FIP	31	SP	4.38	17.0%	5.7%	3.6%	.374	5.19	17.2%	11.0%	64	+0.81	3.78	514	54
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	54
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	71	21.2%	7.9%	0.98	4.18
Zach McAllister ('23)	3.0	85	21.1%	7.8%	1.07	4.15
Roy Lee Jackson ('77-'86, 5 WAR*)	2.8	70	21.9%*	8.6%*	1.09*	3.99*
John Habyan ('85-'96, 6 WAR*)	2.7	67	21.0%*	7.8%*	0.92*	3.83*
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Brett Cecil ('18)	3.8	76	20.7%	8.3%	1.14	4.29
Daniel Hudson ('24)	4.3	71	22.8%	7.7%	1.01	3.74