Tanner Houck
P
Boston Red Sox
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 226 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.41
FIP4.39
xFIP4.73
SIERA4.78
K%19.7%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%12.0%
IP104
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5050
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1015.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.376
SI (40%)
FB-3.1 (46%)
SL-6.2 (35%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 23 | 23 | 119 | 519 | 111 | 60 | 11 | 16.5% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.96 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | 33 | 17 | 108 | 475 | 107 | 46 | 7 | 18.6% | 10.5% | 1.7% | 4.01 | 3.80 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 3 | 3 | 17 | 63 | 21 | 9 | 1 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 1.7% | 0.53 | 3.05 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 24 | 19 | 90 | 375 | 113 | 27 | 5 | 29.3% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.90 | 2.28 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 4 | 60 | 247 | 56 | 19 | 3 | 22.7% | 7.7% | 1.2% | 3.15 | 2.81 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 24 | 24 | 115 | 498 | 109 | 44 | 14 | 21.4% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.25 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 30 | 30 | 179 | 743 | 154 | 47 | 11 | 20.7% | 6.3% | 1.6% | 3.12 | 3.01 | +4.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 14 | 13 | 59 | 277 | 47 | 23 | 12 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 7.43 | 5.44 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 72 | 29 | 11 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.43 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 78 | 327 | 69 | 24 | 10 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.28 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 69 | 290 | 59 | 21 | 9 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 51 | 19 | 8 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 43 | 18 | 8 | 19.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 36 | 16 | 7 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 183 | 133 | 746 | 3197 | 666 | 290 | 73 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 3.75 | +13.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 36 | 200 | 857 | 178 | 78 | 20 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Houck (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.37 | 20.4% | 12.9% | 233 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 62 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 62 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 62 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.18 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.3% | .319 | 2.97 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.21 | 1.72 | 402 | 61 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 61 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 61 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 61 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 60 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 60 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 60 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 60 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.17 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% | .279 | 3.79 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 181 | +0.62 | 3.17 | 272 | 60 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 60 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 60 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 60 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 60 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 60 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 60 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 60 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 60 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2020
Service 4.581 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $4M | +$0.0M | ||